Leaderboard

The above summer forecast verified reasonably well in most cases, the prediction implied a top ten outcome and in fact the summer was around 3rd to 5th warmest on record depending on which data you used. The CET predictions of 16, 18 and 17 compare with 16.1, 19.1 and 16.6 for an average error of 0.53 C deg, and it has to be kept in mind that August was running close to 17 until around the 23rd with a very cool finish. The overall prediction was closer, with an average error of only 0.27 C (17.0 vs actual of 17.27). It was a dry summer in many parts of southern Britain and southeast Ireland. The magnitude of this drought was probably underplayed in the forecast. As for North America, it certainly did turn into a scorcher of a summer in the west with widespread fires in western Canada in particular. We were dealing with noxious smoke on an epic scale for much of August (although I was away on holiday in clearer skies down south) and the first week of September before the activity finally subsided. The tropical season has not been keeping pace with the forecast although it could still work out fairly close, and Michael alone is worth several ordinary hurricanes I suppose. ... well, I won't make a big deal about this forecast because basically I think almost everyone expected this sort of summer after the spring blocking, so it is now on to the winter of 2018-19 for the next instalment ... Long-Range Outlook for Winter 2018-19 As always, my forecast is based on a blend of traditional concepts and exclusive research into "index values" on the assumption that at least some variability in the climate can be linked to variations in the solar system magnetic field (a complex response to relatively small changes in solar wind output and effects on the earth's linked atmosphere and magnetosphere). It is looking quite cold compared to normal for Britain and Ireland, in particular later December and parts of January. However, this appears to be dependent on a strong jet stream either shifting far enough south or relaxing for periods of 1-2 weeks, and the intervals between the cold spells could be quite stormy at times when the jet stream is roaring at full capacity. The research index values in particular go far colder than I have seen them for the past several winters, indicating many analogue cases that were very cold winters. Looking through the analogues, I find that periods around late December into early January, and mid to late January, were favoured for the coldest weather. This is also favoured by assumptions made about lunar modulation of the pattern, which is how I have come to see the lunar influence, not as a driver so much as a shaper of larger signals from the other players at work. Another consideration is that we are well into a prolonged solar downturn and so there's nothing in the larger solar-weather paradigm to contradict the notion of this being a colder than average winter. We are in a similar position to the period 1819 to 1823 which had numerous cold winters but it's not a guarantee by itself to be in this sort of regime. I've seen some discussion saying that perhaps this won't be the widely expected "big one" and perhaps we'll need to wait another winter or two, but I have no way of choosing which one is the big one from the coarse assumptions that one is forced to make using only a solar-weather paradigm. The past summer season in the central Canadian arctic was exceptionally cold. Resolute for example had no month warmer than the 1.9 average in July, and that is the lowest such statistic on record in recent times (the record began in 1948). This has been followed up by a large-scale southward movement of a cold anomaly over central Canada that has people commenting that winter already began in the prairies in early September, with snow often on the ground. This anomaly is almost bound to be followed up by a persistent trough around 90 to 100 W longitude. That in turn would favour west Atlantic blocking and a downstream trough between 10 and 30 W. Although that's a little west of the "sweet spot" for a cold winter in Britain and Ireland, I feel that it may be a high amplitude pattern that will induce Scandinavian blocking highs, and cold outflow from those despite fairly high 500-mb heights in western Europe at times. And the pattern could oscillate east-west enough to place the trough over Britain and Ireland at times. So I am predicting a notably cold winter but with high variability possible leading to alternating spells of wintry cold and stormy fast flow situations. Another factor that may prove significant is that energy levels will be highly concentrated near the full and new moons this winter, perhaps more so than has been the case in most recent winters. I expect this to translate into alternating periods of very unsettled, stormy weather around those lunar dates, and relatively long settled intervals between them. The settled intervals are likely to be the times when blocking will deliver the colder air masses from an easterly or northeasterly source. But there may be some tendency for the disturbed intervals to remain cold and turn more northerly. This could add up to considerably more snowfall in the heart of winter than we've seen for quite a few seasons, in contrast to last winter's concentration of snowfall near the very end of the winter season (27 Feb to 2 March was very snowy in some regions). I am aware that this represents a high risk forecast, especially given the tendency of recent winters to resist opportunities to establish potent blocking. So it won't absolutely surprise me if the result is some kind of weaker compromise where some cold and some snowfall develop but longer intervals remain relatively mild. I don't foresee a really mild winter being likely given these background conditions, and I do have concerns that the volatility may produce some exceptionally stormy intervals. This pattern may persist well into late winter and March may not see a lot of change from it, except that by then the energy level considerations will be more evenly distributed into four peaks rather than two per lunation. That separation during February may lead to a peak in snowfall since the peaks will be somewhat less supported and that could be reflected in a more persistent blocking pattern. As to the dates of the stormy episodes, those appear most likely to fall around 19-22 December, 3-6 January, and 16-20 January, and there could be heavy rainfalls in the south during some of those intervals as colder regimes are pushed back to the north at least temporarily, but as time goes on the chances for snowstorms likely increases with each of these windows, then towards the end of January it may be more of a sea-effect snowfall opportunity with the storm track pushed much further south into Iberia and the Mediterranean. During the anticyclonic intervals that are likely to peak between those stormy intervals, we could see some unusually low temperatures especially if snow cover has been established towards the transition from stormy to settled weather. In the run up to the winter, I would expect quite frequent mild and unsettled patterns with the colder synoptics taking their time to appear, possibly in muted form around mid to late November so that perhaps Scotland will get the first round of this predicted wintry regime. In North America, I am expecting a winter dominated by intense cold over central regions, often extending out to both coasts, and a generally depressed jet stream but with weak El Nino tendencies likely to lead to frequent and heavy snowfall inland from the west coast over the Rockies about as far south as northern New Mexico. Parts of eastern Canada may be unusually mild with the storm track tending to run north from near Cape Cod into eastern Quebec province. I feel like this may be a very rough sketch of a winter that may contain some really unusual synoptics and bring conditions that are rarely seen at some times, and those are difficult to anticipate so would just caution that various extremes may be tested at times. I don't think it will be a dull or boring weather pattern for most of the winter, in any case. For verification, I expect the average temperatures to run as much as 1.5 to 2 degrees below recent normals and for this winter to be one of the colder ones in the past thirty or even fifty, and colder even than the longer-term averages which run almost a degree below modern 30-year averages. I somehow doubt that it could be an all-time cold contender to match the summer because that seems to be very difficult to achieve with the ice margins being as far north as they have set up in the North Atlantic in modern times. But as we saw in December 2010, anything is still possible and there could be some intervals of record breaking cold.

So an early look at my LRF for winter 2018/19. Before I go into it I want to say I believe a winter to rival a 20th century great will occur within the next 3 winters. Let’s start with why I believe this. Following taken from Spaceweather in relation to sunspot count. 2018 total: 165 days (58%) 2017 total: 104 days (28%) 2016 total: 32 days (9%) 2015 total: 0 days (0%) 2014 total: 1 day (<1%) 2013 total: 0 days (0%) 2012 total: 0 days (0%) 2011 total: 2 days (<1%) 2010 total: 51 days (14%) 2009 total: 260 days (71%) 2008 total: 268 days (73%) 2007 total: 152 days (42%) 2006 total: 70 days (19%) I compare 2018 to 2007 = 11 year cycle going forward. We know the winter 09/10. Potentially we could get an 07/08type winter...but I think we are past that as one can see we have still got 2 1/2 months to go and we are 13 more spotless days already....I think 190 but 200 is not insurmountable. I am also not of opinion of Gavsvid updates that this year ‘could’ be solar minima. 19/20 imo more like it. And if it continues as last minima.....moving on from this year we could be in territory not seen for over 200 years. (Interesting RJS mentions 1819/22) El Niño (weak?) so not unfavourable Will the cold Atlantic to our West be of relevance? As already posted as snippets I think winter starts early. So overall theme I feel prevalence of northern blocking with Scandi Blocking likely to be a player with at times an active jet bringing in LP systems but ultimately failing to upset the rhythm of winter. December - colder than average. I won’t put too much meat on bones yet but after a wintry first half I suspect blocking to be in place approaching Xmas and then an Atlantic trying to push in against a cold block that won’t give way (period of note possible). I say it won’t give way as I anticipate January to continue with the colder than average winter. January - colder than average - 1st 10 days earmarked for potential coldest temps of winter with cold block established over (if anticipated) snowfields are widespread. I think mid and backend of January to be potentially very snowy with LPs attempting to take over the ‘general’ pattern as I think the blocking will be at it’s most vulnerable as we enter February February - Average overall but wet. I think the rhythm eases somewhat and we could see winter wane. There is a possibility that jetstream holds on southerly track and wintry conditions elongate but Atlantic vulnerability I’ll call it. A winter to match a 20th century great over next 3 winters?...means I am saying it could be this one. For sure imo we have entered a period going forward where we could be in the game for some serious synoptic patterns. Serious cold and long is still very achievable and imo going to become ever more achievable. As always, with blocking if in wrong place then is a blow out......and Greece etc are locked into an ice age and we are distinctly average, bland even a touch mild....but better to have prevalent northern blocking to put us in the game for cold. I’ll add more with what I identify as ‘periods of potential most impact’ in Nov..... BFTP

The outlook is still unsettled, albeit improving somewhat, but still tending towards a continuation of the NW/SE divide. A brief check on the current ocean analysis as well. The 500mb and surface analysis at midnight As can be seen Callum is now away to the north but the waving front(s) are still lying across the UK with the associated rain belt currently south east Scorland > the north of England > Wales and the south west. Still fairly windy across the Midlands but the same south west breeze dagging up some very warm air with temps still hovering around 20C which will rise later to perhaps the mid 20Cs in places. During the day the rain will push north to envelop N. Ireland and Scotland. Through this evening and overnight the rain will ease somewhat as the complex frontal structure starts to track east but by dawn more persistent rain arrives across central/southern England This rain proceeds to become quite heavy during Sunday and is quite slow moving so it is not until evening that it finally clears the south east. And the corollary of all this is that temps are way down from the very warm temps of today. Overnight and through Monday the waving front moves away to the north east and a high cell becomes influential thus a much drier day with light winds with temps around average. By Tuesday another deep low is tracking east but it too swings NNE south of Iceland, courtesy of the block to the east, so that the associated fronts struggle south east down the UK, albeit bringing strong winds to the north and patchy rain to most places by the end of the day. Temps on the rise again in the south east The front(s) clear the south east on Wednesday leaving showery and cooler conditions behind. And the NH profile at T120 with the Azores ridge putting in a brief appearance

Another Gfs run showing an arctic shot towards the end of october..could some of us see snow before november?..don't rule it out!

nice jma bit far out and yesterdays. but would be nice to see some of the arctic this winter. stormy and wet will do for now

Let's hope the Gfs is right about an Arctic blast at the end of October and then it will be Hats on..and scarf..and gloves!

26.3C, wow smashed the date record for the 13th October then. It should stay warm well into the evening/night, until the rain moves in. Incredible that this same strength of sunshine was during Beast from the East earlier this year. We've experienced the full range of temperatures possible with the sun at this angle.

Good for cold?!!crazy warm here this morning!!

Lol, you're all talking about record temps and I'm sat here with the fire on. Been raining nearly all day and about 10C outside, with it not getting much above that as a high. Oh well, the smile will be on my face when it comes to snow potential in a few weeks.

Blimey MIA - by the time you regard them as accurate, we'll all be over one-hundred-years-old!

Wow 26c reached today , Been Gardening all day in shorts , feels surreal but great to have this useful weather .

26c now being recorded in a couple of places. Seventh month in succession where temperatures have hit 80f if We move a tad higher today.

If the 'next' forecast spell of much colder, showery weather goes the same way as most of its predecessors, it won't materialise at all. Fingers crossed!

When you say “long term”, what sort of time period are you talking about? Its only the middle of October.....

Last night was the warmest ever in October with a min of 18.8C. Now we're already up to 20.4C despite the cloud and wind. Previous record min was 16.9C on 1st October 1985.

Crazily warm here this morning!!Sitting in my lounge, with both fans on, ridiculous!! Can't wait for the Atlantic to definitively make a breakthrough and deliver some fresher air, to our region. Regards, Tom.

Some encouraging signs it appears for a possible front-loaded Winter with chilly conditions. But, to be honest, this is how I feel Winter 2018/19 will pan out. December: January: February:

Looking at the Ecm 12z we may not be finished with unseasonable warmth yet, next saturday looks potentially very warm again depending on sunshine amounts but then a cold blast glancing blow for the N / E and beyond day 10 perhaps a more widespread polar maritime shot would sweep down across the uk from the NW.

Also now the warmest day on record in the UK for this late in the year and latest 26c in the year.

Windy day but what a lovely sunny day ! Went for a bike ride and was very refreshed with the wind in my face

Ridiculously warm. Nearly 25c here in mid-october! Mildenhall down the road is now at 26c too. Madness.

Looking at the Gfs 6z operational it's not bad at all after the next few days, high pressure / ridging becomes more influential next week, especially further south bringing a predominantly fine spell with just a little rain, mostly further north. There is a colder showery NW'ly flow during late october but overall it's a decent outlook for most of the uk..according to this run!☺

Well it seems like it’s the turn of central southern and eastern England tomorrow to experience some very wet weather although not anywhere near as bad as it has so far been in the west. This is what the dwd is showing accumulation wise by the time the rain’s cleared through by Monday.. A line roughly though Swindon to Lincolnshire getting around 30 to 50mm locally more? The sheer persistence is of some note this is the arpege below from 6am tomorrow morning.. Rain is shown to be falling across wales which of course don’t need It along with the southwest just fringing into southern parts then fast forward to 2am Monday morning and this is the position.. it’s still raining if the arpege is right then many places through central southern and southeastern England would see potentially 12 -18 hours of heavy rain which could lead to large accumulations though not expected to bring any real flooding problems as these areas Have been pretty dry for a while. so potentially welcome rain albeit a lot of for southern and eastern parts as for wales and SouthWest England? Definitely not welcome ofcourse this is just one model output details can and will change I will update later today.

Yes, theres a good number at the end that would snow and a couple even to low levels.

Saw the rainbows, also saw the best Kelvin-Helmholtz wave clouds for some time. They were to the west probably above Warrington/Runcorn area

backtracking like they did last year...

Looking for a wintry January personally. Last winter it was the least wintry yet is the coldest month so would be good to have the coldest weather coincide with the coldest time of the year. Likewise, no mild Atlantic mush until March please.

Finally planted, Co2 up and running as well. For anyone interested in the species of plants I used.. Xmas Moss Flame Moss Weeping Moss Bucephalandra Sp. Green Bucephalandra Mini Velvet Staurogyn Repens Cryptocoryne Petchii Cryptocoryne Walkeri Java Fern 'Narrow' Anubias Nana Petite Anubias Coin Leaf Anubias Coffeefolia

The above looks fairly similar to my research output using entirely different parameters, will be posting a more detailed LRF later today in the LRF thread (which seems to have been dormant since last spring, have to find it back in the menu somewhere). But a tease would be periods of notable cold in Dec and Jan. Stormy at other times.

Further to the above from CC. Found this on Twitter earlier this evening. May give more support for ECM version of front loaded winter plus you have the correlation between -AO and -NAO.

Fascinating close up of Callum on the high res. MODIS at midday. (courtesy of the Dundee Satellite Receiving Station)

The first wintry charts beginning to show. Hoping for a great winter ahead ️

Well, it is that time again ... LONG RANGE OUTLOOK for SUMMER 2018 In general terms, I am expecting a very warm summer for the U.K. and Ireland although trending more towards normal values in western Ireland and Scotland. There is likely to be a strong continental influence especially for southeast England, probably extending to south central England and the Midlands, Yorkshire and possibly parts of eastern Scotland too. Even parts of Ireland will benefit from this influence. My reasoning for this is based on two separate factors. One is that my research model indicates higher than average index values for isolated analogue components in about three quarters of the set that I have developed. The other factor is more immediate, blocking has continued to be a fairly prominent player ever since the notable cold outbreaks of late February into March, and as many suspected, that tendency would not remain cold far into the spring but would increasingly favour warmth (also turning from northeast to southeast dominant wind flow helps with the warming effects). I suspect that the summer may rank well up there among the top all-time summers for warmth, so I will go with some relatively conservative forecasts for the three monthly CET values of 16, 18 and 17, expecting that perhaps one of these will be too low, if not more. If that verified the summer would average 17.0 and be ranked tied 9th warmest with 1933, and marginally warmer than the currently tied 10th warmest summers of 1911 and 1781 (16.97) with only these summers warmer: __ 1947 (17.03), 1983 (17.07), 1846 (17.10), 2006 (17.23), 2003 (17.33), 1995 (17.37), 1826 (17.60) and 1976 (17.77) __ Some of the summers with good reputations finished as low as 16.5 so I would certainly expect 2018 to go higher than that. With that general set-up, the chances are high that rainfall would be below average in many southern and eastern districts, and closer to normal in western portions and in the north. The most likely zone for severe or heavy thunderstorm outbreaks would be near the average position of the polar front which separates tropical from modified Atlantic air masses, and that would likely be (on average) in southwest England, Wales, portions of southeast Ireland, northwest England and east-central Scotland but at times shifting closer to a Bristol to Newcastle line. This does not of course rule out some good thunderstorms in the warmer zone and it always seems like late June is a good time frame for Channel storm developments that last overnight and rumble across southeast England. With a suitable energy peak around 30 June this is perhaps even more possible. It is unlikely that this good summer weather regime will be permanent from start to finish and if you look at the list of similar or warmer summers, some have a bias towards later warmth and some go earlier, while a few distribute well throughout. With this blocking tendency already well established I imagine that this implies either an early bias like 1846, 2006 or 1976 or a constant warmth. It can be noted that my prediction would make this the warmest summer of years ending in 8. Summers ending in six have done very well in the past (four of the top six). The current warmest summer ending in 8 would be 14th ranked 1868 (16.87) which might prove a bit of a challenge. The futility mark is that of summers ending in zero (tied 49th warmest 1730,, followed by the fours (1794 was tied 36th). Lack of solar activity is correlated with blocking and it does not seem to be an impediment to hot summers, for example 1826 in a very inactive solar regime, 13th place going to 1899 in a low solar period and even the Maunder managed to produce 15th place 1676. The hot summers in more active solar intervals are generally near solar minima also, the only one with high solar activity would be 1947 although others are shoulder years in terms of solar cycles. I find solar indices to be more useful for winter forecasting when Atlantic storminess is more of a factor. No doubt in long intervals of low solar activity, there can be runs of dismal summers due to a depressed jet stream and colder ocean temperatures, but this year does not seem to fit that scenario (yet). As to tropical activity, I would look for a very active season with perhaps 20 named storms and 12 to 14 of those being hurricanes, 5 to 7 becoming major hurricanes. In North America, I am predicting a very hot summer in the west, and also across the southeastern U.S., with a gradient towards more normal temperatures northward into the Great Lakes and northeastern U.S., leading to very frequent thunderstorm activity near oscillating frontal bands running from Alberta southeast into the Dakotas and then east-south-east into the lower Great Lakes and inland northeastern U.S. ... these regions may have some severe storms and flooding episodes as a result. The inland west may have a scorcher of a summer and widespread wildfire problems (hope I'm wrong about this, but it's 31 C outside my house right now, normal would be 19 C).

Still 19c here too. Wind has died right back for first time in over 12 hours. Reports of trees down in rhe area, but nothing on what Devon and Cornwall had

@stainesbloke congratulations on your marriage . If it’s anything like mine it will be wonderful, not always but wonderful . the weather was great today , being blown about in October I get but in a T shirt was quite surreal , I might try a bbq tomorrow in 25 degree heat and a gale force wind , what can go wrong .

The problem over Sunday appears to be the complex structure of the active front, linking to tropical storm Leslie over Iberia, which is likely to bring considerable more rain tomorrow, Thus the ecm doesn't have it crossing the country that quickly on Sunday

Congratulations, enjoy your big day

@stainesbloke wishing you the very best for the big day! I was in Windsor today so saw the royal wedding procession - it was very windy and very mild, pleasant for being outdoors but my hat took off and was gone and because of the wedding the streets were crowded, it was a complete farce trying to get it back! Even now temp outside is reading 19.4.c - incredible. The winter duvet I put on a few weeks ago is going to be very uncomfortable tonight!

With eruption of Kilauea over for the time being it seems the Alaskan volcanoes have taken the challenge up SEMISOPOCHNOI VOLCANO (VNUM #311060) 51°55'44" N 179°35'52" E, Summit Elevation 2625 ft (800 m) Current Volcano Alert Level: WATCH Current Aviation Color Code: ORANGE Unrest continues at Semisopochnoi volcano. Seismicity remains elevated and above background levels. Analysis of satellite data indicates the tephra cone within the crater of the north cone of Mount Cerberus has been partially eroded and a crater lake, about 90 m in diameter, now fills the vent. The satellite data further suggest the tephra cone vent has not erupted since October 1. No volcanic activity was detected by regional infrasound sensors over the past day. Semisopochnoi is monitored with an on-island seismic network, and remotely by satellite and lightning sensors. An infrasound array on Adak Island may detect explosive emissions from Semisopochnoi with a 13 minute delay if atmospheric conditions permit. VENIAMINOF VOLCANO (VNUM #312070) 56°11'52" N 159°23'35" W, Summit Elevation 8225 ft (2507 m) Current Volcano Alert Level: WATCH Current Aviation Color Code: ORANGE Unrest continues at Veniaminof volcano. Seismicity is above background levels and is characterized by low-level continuous tremor. Elevated surface temperatures associated with the lava flow at the intracaldera cone were observed in two mostly cloudy satellite images over the past day. Analysis of recent satellite data indicates the eastern part of the lava flow field on the south flank of Veniaminof remains active. Web camera views of the volcano have been obscured by clouds. No significant ash emissions have been observed or reported. Veniaminof Volcano is monitored with a local real-time seismic network, which will typically allow AVO to detect changes in unrest that may lead to an explosive eruption. Rapid detection of an ash-producing eruption would be accomplished using a combination of seismic, infrasound, lightning, and satellite data. CLEVELAND VOLCANO (VNUM #311240) 52°49'20" N 169°56'42" W, Summit Elevation 5676 ft (1730 m) Current Volcano Alert Level: ADVISORY Current Aviation Color Code: YELLOW Low-level unrest continues at Cleveland volcano. Nothing significant has been detected in seismic and regional infrasound data. No activity observed in mostly cloudy satellite views of the volcano over the past day. Cleveland volcano is monitored by only two seismic stations, which restricts AVO's ability to detect precursory unrest that may lead to an explosive eruption. Rapid detection of an ash-producing eruption may be possible using a combination of seismic, infrasound, lightning, and satellite data. The web camera, one seismic station, and the local infrasound array are offline due to a equipment failure on September 23rd. This hampers efforts to rapidly detect explosive activity; however, Cleveland remains monitored with a single seismic station and regional instruments. GREAT SITKIN VOLCANO (VNUM #311120) 52°4'35" N 176°6'39" W, Summit Elevation 5709 ft (1740 m) Current Volcano Alert Level: ADVISORY Current Aviation Color Code: YELLOW Low-level unrest continues at Great Sitkin volcano. Seismic activity remains above background. No activity was observed in regional infrasound data or in mostly cloudy satellite images during the past day. Great Sitkin volcano is monitored with a local real-time seismic network, which will typically allow AVO to detect changes in unrest that may lead to an explosive eruption. Rapid detection of an ash-producing eruption would be accomplished using a combination of seismic, infrasound, lightning, and satellite data.

Yes,it's noticeably warm. We've had no rain here. It's looked as if it was approaching on the radar, but would then disappear when it reached the Thames Valley for some reason. Windy too. Mean 30mph with gusts into the late 40s most of the day with a slight lull mid afternoon

Good luck mate, and congratulations.

Well judging by the 15oC 850hpa temperatures I think it's looking likely that will be broken somewhere tonight then!?

Congratulations! I hope you have a wonderful day tomorrow:)

Hope it doesn't snow on your big day, congrats

Many congrats, mate. Have a stonker of a day!

No it only needs to stay above 18.6 from 21:00 this evening until 9:00 tomorrow morning, as that's the twelve hour time period during which minimum temperatures are recorded.

Yes have a great day tomorrow- congratulations x

Here's the forecast based on the 06z GFS Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg) 13.0C to the 11th... +1.0 (16.8: +5.1) [Daily Record: 17.6C from 1978] 13.2C to the 12th... +1.2 (15.4: +3.8) 13.6C to the 13th... +1.7 (18.5: +7.2) [Previous record 16.8C from 1990] 13.5C to the 14th... +1.6 (11.9: +1.0) 13.3C to the 15th... +1.5 (10.8: +0.0) 13.2C to the 16th... +1.5 (11.5: +1.2) 13.0C to the 17th... +1.4 (10.5: +0.5) 12.8C to the 18th... +1.3 (8.9: -1.2) 12.6C to the 19th... +1.2 (9.8: -0.2) 12.6C to the 20th... +1.2 (10.9: +1.1) Quite a remarkable forecast for the 13th. if it came off, it would push the latest date a CET of 18.5C or more has been recorded 7 days further into Autumn. After that, daily values return close to the seasonal average, with the rolling CET dropping away accordingly.

Sorry mate but that's complete nonsense. I can tell you that people can and do make a lot of money from LRFs! Anyway, I'm giving a presentation tomorrow on a winter forecast so here goes. Front-ended cold winter with a largely blocked pattern through December and January, mild more likely going into Feb. Negative QBO is transitioning into a positive one through winter which isn't good for cold, but we are now at the very bottom of the solar cycle which plays very much into our favour for a colder winter. ECMWF seasonal* supports this, but then again the UKMO and CFS do not... *EC seasonal has consistently had a very easterly themed December!