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Charts to warm the cockles of a coldies heart from the Gfs 00z operational..turns into a thing of BEAUTY!!!

Apart from the continuation of the unsettled outlook over the next few days, particularly in regard to wind and rain (always keep abreast of the METO updates), the pattern is also noticeable, as previously mentioned, for the WAA into Europe which just catches the UK. Highlighting once again, if indeed it needs highlighting, the tendency for a NW/SE divide. The 500mb and surface analysis for midnight and the 0300 WV image Storm Callum is currently moving north west of Ireland and filling rapidly. The rain and strengthening winds are already into N. Ireland and western regions of the mainland and the rain will track quickly north east, clearing N. Ireland and the north, before the next pulse moves north on the cold front during the afternoon. The south east remains on the fringes of this activity During the evening and overnight and through Saturday Callum continues to fill and track north, but further pulses of heavy rain track north east from the western approaches and through Wales to the NE coast as the upper trough 'sharpens' just to the west and a wave tracks north east along the front. Once again the south east escapes and here temps are significantly above average The wave continues to track north overnight Saturday and through Sunday so the wet and still quite windy weather continues for a time but eventually it clears and the cold front also traverses the country into the North Sea leaving a showery, and much cooler regime in it's wake. Monday portends to be a fairly quiet and dry day with high pressure being temporarily influential But by Tuesday another upper trough is moving east and the surface low is deepening quite rapidly and tracking north east between Scotland and Iceland and Exeter has a myriad of associated fronts crossing the UK giving another wet and windy day And the NH profile at T120

Snow for some.

I’m personally getting fed up with this mostly settled warm weather hopefully something more definitively seasonal in the next couple of weeks

Not something you see too often, two ex-Hurricanes approaching SW Europe this weekend, remnant low of Michael fills as it approaches NW Iberia early next week on both 00z EC and GFS, Hurricane Leslie more of a conundrum in that on the National Hurricane Center official track still tracks it east then loops south then west brushing Canaries - whereas latest guidance from EC and GFS take it into Iberia, GFS operational on more northerly track than EC deterministic

Big change coming according to EC mid-range ensembles this morning - note how the purples (and therefore likely position of troughing) transfer from west to east between 21st October and 26th October: Gate to cooler weather opened!

Quality. Im glad in a way that the only theroy Scientific or otherwise discussion i shall have with my mates tonight is why bread always falls butter side down. otherwise i expect bloodied noses would be the order of the day

I don't look at it like there is 4 seasons, to me there is 2, the season where snow is possible lasting around 6 months, the only one worth bothering about, and the closed season.

Yesterday evening as the squall line had passed through

Thanks for this. Hopefully the individual(s) who didn't realise the difference is now a little bit more wiser.

If that were for mid-November, it'd look reminiscent of 1988. The rest, as they say, is history!

EC46 not only maintains the blocking signal to the NE, it strengthens it compared to last run and draws it nearer by w4 to suggesting there's a significant cluster showing an Easterly, and I have never seen an anomaly at week 6 as strong on this model, a very strong signal for the PV to come under pressure and give us a shot at proper cold very early in the season.

Quite like the GFS 12z run with some crisp mornings coming up in between weather systems

Fascinating close up of Callum on the high res. MODIS at midday. (courtesy of the Dundee Satellite Receiving Station)

Very gusty on the coast today, just been down to Poole Bay and Sandbanks, kite surfers loving life. Gusting over 40mph on my kestrel before the constant sand blasting got the better of me. Mean winds over 30mph.

Very windy here, but warm. A few breaks in the cloud and currently 19C. Hopefully the rain will hold off tomorrow until late, am getting married and would like a dry day for photo’s!

Last year?

Terrific image of Callum and the trailing front on the 0900 UTC geostationary

Snow continues to build..

It would appear that some here don't quite know the difference between scientific theory, and the colloquial usage of theory. From Wikipedia A scientific theory is an explanation of an aspect of the natural world that can be repeatedly tested and verified in accordance with scientific method, using accepted protocols of observation, measurement, and evaluation of results. Where possible, theories are tested under controlled conditions in an experiment.[1][2] In circumstances not amenable to experimental testing, theories are evaluated through principles of abductive reasoning. Established scientific theories have withstood rigorous scrutiny and embody scientific knowledge.[3] The meaning of the term scientific theory (often contracted to theory for brevity) as used in the disciplines of science is significantly different from the common vernacular usage of theory.[4][Note 1] In everyday speech, theory can imply an explanation that represents an unsubstantiated and speculative guess,[4] whereas in science it describes an explanation that has been tested and widely accepted as valid. These different usages are comparable to the opposing usages of prediction in science versus common speech, where it denotes a mere hope. --------------------- ----------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------------ --------------------------------- So, just because someone calls an idea they have a theory, doesn't mean it meets the standard of scientific theory. For example: Gravity, evolution, plate tectonics, germs causing disease - all scientific theories. Electric universe, flat earth, creationism, spicy food causing ulcers - theories in a colloquial sense, but not scientific theories

It's always best to give credit to the author of the text above, which you can find here with more information, otherwise folks may think you wrote that, which in fact was Mr Cook in 2009. https://www.skepticalscience.com/print.php?n=82 and here https://www.skepticalscience.com/print.php?r=77 For folks who wish to read more on this theory.

Which part of my comment is "another old chestnut" ? You will see from my what I wrote, CO2 isn't a singular driver, that's factual, in fact, I would declare 409ppm isn't even close to warranting a single shred of emotion. Wake me up when it's around 4,000ppm. (Even when it was 4000ppm millions of years ago, GLACIERS were forming )

Me too nick,there is plenty of time to get the prozak's out lol wasn't it Nov2009 or 2010 the we had a very warm start then the floodgates opened i sense the same happening,extremes in weather are happening more and more of late. BTW,nice to see you come out of hibernation

The nighttime temp prediction looks a bit extreme but daytime mid twenties definitely possible . Some unseasonably warm and moist air being pulled ne ahead of those Atlantic lows. The increase in humidity is very noticeable here and we could hit 30c here with added fohn effect over the next few days . I’d be very happy to see a continuation of the warm conditions and then a quick reset to colder in time for November . And to think in around 5 weeks the UK then has a realistic chance of its first snow , the year has just flown by , it seems like only yesterday the UK saw that amazing severe cold in March .

You guy's are something else.... I can't be bothered.....

I think it may help also if you show your initial understanding of the climate system when asking a question? So we could have " we know CO2 traps , and holds, I.R. energy in the atmosphere but are there any other particles we produce that do similar?" We might then say 'soot' can cause issues both a a particle in the atmosphere but also as it is washed out onto ice cover so darkening it and speeding its melt...... See! that worked didn't it? You could maybe say " We know CO2 warms the planet but do we do anything that might balance that out?" and we'd say " well the sulphates we produce when we burn dirty fossil fuels can act the same way they do when eruptions put them in the atmosphere. Sadly they are short lived so any 'dimming' they produce is fleeting unless we continuously replace them ( unlike CO2 that has hundreds of years of impact before the carbon cycle reclaims it and takes it out of the atmosphere)...." again , that seems to work? I think you needed to have spent 2 decades embattled with the paid deniers and their unwaged lasky's to 'get' how PTSD folk so abused become. So many phrases/questions that to you appear innocent are in fact 'triggers'. I do not think we look for excusing just empathy and understanding? As I see things 'We' lost and the deniers won so no matter that we poured our heart into defending the science/enlightening the lurkers it was all to no avail and we now find ourselves on the slow countdown ( 12 yrs did the IPCC give us to act decisively?) . Even though we were trounced and the planet kept on polluting, business as usual, the deniers were out in force once the latest ,strong worded, report came out. As if they needed to bother. The planet will not act. We saw as much over the past two decades did we not?

It was the consensus at the time before new scientific knowledge superseded it, and that’s kind of my point what is today’s consensus is tomorrow’s old hat. That’s not that I’m implying the theory on CO2 is wrong but merely the modelled projections most likely are.

Really?

There was once a theory that Peptic Ulcers were caused by spicy foods.

I understand what a theory means in Science, yes.

Signs of the jet being pushed back slightly north again with the Ecm 00z run again showing heights to the south as we go on into next week deflecting the worst of any wind and rain off to the far northwest. In general, prospects looking far less volatile going forward to what was showing approx two days ago.

I see no evidence from the ECM 00Z this morning that we are heading for a particularly cool second half to the month. Probably more average next week but I can't see anything particularly cool in the offing, even at night. The GFS actually wants to build high pressure more strongly towards the end of the week as well. Temperatures by day probably average to slightly above. Aside from a few days here and there in August and September, this really has been a remarkable run of warmth for most us since April now. We had our first 20C here on April 18th and we are still threatening 20C going into mid October.

I managed to get a piccy, it was loverly surprise to see first thing in the morning.

ADS extent has seen it's first big increase this month, +137k, enough to take it back above 2007 and into 3rd lowest for the date. https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent/&time=2018-10-09 00:00:00

Yes, Its unlikely that there would be enough cold pooling on the continent to bring us a March 2018 scenario at that time but if we can get that ridging into the pole consistently throughout November, you would think at some point in the following month, a brutal spell might well be around the corner.

However... this D14 control run from the clusters... could allow quite a cold northerly by the last week of October... nearly 50% support too Hmmm

Frosty have you done our annual flip from "heat seeker" to "coldie" yet? I'm still just about in heat mode - can't see my serious chances of early season cold, ensembles are generally a bit too flat, but any more ensembles like this one and I think I might be ready for my personal "flip" too

I try to keep busy with as many projects as possible Db. 2018 has been a stressful year, so aquascaping tanks is a good stress reliever, even more so when they up and running. I had a few other jobs to do today, so I didn't quite finish it all. However, most of the hardscape is done. 2 driftwood pieces JBL ProScape Volcano Mineral rocks as a base substrate JBL Volcano powder on top Tropica Aquasoil Tropica Powder Soil Seiryu stone Fine white quartz gravel for cosmetic purposes I have some small touches to add, like some 1 inch seiryu pieces and some shale to sprinkly around when the stone meets the sand. I have stacks of planting to do tomorrow.

I think last March showed anything is possible . It was crazy seeing sub zero daytime temps then. As for Prozac it’s an essential part of the UK snow lovers survival kit ! Looking forward in terms of tonight’s outputs an early test for the models re that area to the ne .

That's not really answering the question either, I fear for any young students who are studying human made climate change, who dare ask such a simple question, if that's the kind of answer they would keep getting. As you like to call us 'basically stupid' because I don't believe climate change is all down to humans, maybe you could educate rather than belittle.

Very March-like.

Denier sites........ Judith Curry is a climate scientists held in the highest esteem for goodness sake and who mentioned that man isn’t responsible for some of the warming, he’s not responsible for all by the way but at a best guesstimate around 0.4c of the present warming trend. That still doesn’t answer what caused the warming during the RWP/MWP, we can’t just dismiss naturals and lay all our eggs into one basket. Yes CO2 levels are contributing to SOME of our warming how much probably the above you but hot we get is the answer that still remains uncertain despite the nonsense above.

So if a man believes in god his credentials aren’t worth the paper they’re written on, wow confirmation bias of what I just said above. Also Judith has produced numerous articles for previous IPCC reports yet remains sceptical of the modelled ( that’s the key word here ) outcomes at the higher end of temp rises. So we now have a situation which sees the uncertainties in global temperature projections being replaced with a “We’ve only got 12 years before temps breach the 1.5c threshold, you couldn’t make it up perhaps they are after all these are algorithms we’re talking about right not a set in stone prediction. I await the next twelve years with a wry smile on my face and will comeback to this then.

The difference between me and the usual suspects on here is as follows, if my prediction of global and uk temperatures no more than 1.5c deviation from the current (could be either way) by the year 2100 and probably even 2200 including some mini ice ages and some much warmer periods is wrong and there is a 5c or 7c increase then I will admit I was wrong, will the likes of Paul and BFTV etc do the same if their predictions are wrong - I very much doubt it!

So what does that make those scientists your oblivious to who do speak out then?

Now i don't disagree that the earth is warming and at an accelerating rate..but there is evidence that the globe has rapidly warmed in little as 10 years in the past and vice versa..so the earth doesn't always warm and cool over millennia it can warm and cool drastically and suddenly and the climate can swing widely..there are probably lots of natural reason why this happens..however is man made warming a thing?..evidence says yes and this to me is irrefutable..to what extent is not 100% clear because we can only take an educated guess as to what happened in the past based on what we know...which like everything else is forever changing.

Like I said it’s now 0.8c which is widely accepted by most. As for being a deniers site well like I said I could cite respected scientists such as Judith Curry who knows more than anyone posting here or for that matter most working within the circles of climate science, as does Roy Spencer. Just because you disagree with those doesn’t make them less credible. This is why climate science is unlike any other scientific field, it’s become a closed shop of nodding dogs where questions on outcomes are met with with an almost hostile reception. As for a consensus amongst climate scientists, well I have a copy of the just what was asked of these scientists in forming a consensus and it was based on a simple question of “do you think man has contributed to today’s warming”. Of course the answer is yes but there is no consensus on outcomes merely a range of temps in which we may or may not see.

Wow, your high horse is even big than some others on here. I best leave it at that, because if I gave you the reply you truly deserve, I would be banned for life.

Thats a good post, but alas I'll keep an open mind and leave all cards on the table thank you.

Sigh, this is getting very boring now lol. What I'm saying is, I find it funny that someone can make such a comparison between brexit and climate change, especially given their views on the matter. And yes, if you actually READ what BornFromTheVoid said, you'll see that he is comparing brexit and climate change, and I am merely responding to said comparison with a little tit bit about his paradoxical views. And yet again, this needs a disclaimer because some people cant seem to help themselves, but I have not given my political view, nor have I even said that any persons view is right or wrong, so no, there is no political point lol!! Jeez.....these Brexit deniers....haha