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No, no, no, absolutely not. I'm in no way ready, or even vaguely willing to accept the possibility that I'm going to be cold and wet all day in the near future. The whole lot can clear off, southerly weather can continue for at least another 4 weeks, preferably longer. Cold can come the week before Christmas, at the earliest.

The nighttime temp prediction looks a bit extreme but daytime mid twenties definitely possible . Some unseasonably warm and moist air being pulled ne ahead of those Atlantic lows. The increase in humidity is very noticeable here and we could hit 30c here with added fohn effect over the next few days . I’d be very happy to see a continuation of the warm conditions and then a quick reset to colder in time for November . And to think in around 5 weeks the UK then has a realistic chance of its first snow , the year has just flown by , it seems like only yesterday the UK saw that amazing severe cold in March .

Great 6z run! Also backed up somewhat by the MetO

ECM starting to @CatchMyDrift as well!!!!!!!

Wow what a wintry late october on the Gfs 12z operational..yes it's deep FI but it's also a recurring theme so hopefully it's on to something!..snow in october would be fantastic!!

GFS FI is an absolute rip-snorter, a stonking ginormous trough dropping into mainland Europe with a destroyed PV and 4 wave pattern.

Me too nick,there is plenty of time to get the prozak's out lol wasn't it Nov2009 or 2010 the we had a very warm start then the floodgates opened i sense the same happening,extremes in weather are happening more and more of late. BTW,nice to see you come out of hibernation

A nice very early wintry blast on the Gfs 6z operational with some frosts, ice and for the north especially, some snow..this is a recurring theme of the gfs recently..hope it's right!!!❄❄❄❄

After the magic day yesterday the outlook is very unsettled with periods of very strong winds and some significant rainfall. The most adverse of the conditions will continue to be in W/NW regions as the pattern continues to favour this divide. The 500mb and surface charts for midnight and the WV image for 0300. As can be seen it's quite cloudy over England and Wales and this will mainly remain the case with some showers running north up the eastern side of England. But as the main low to the west of Ireland deepens and swings south west of Iceland the cold front will push east across the UK along with a band of squally,showery rain, perhaps thundery in places. It does't reach the east until late afternoon so still quite a warm day here. But as can be seen storm Callum is lurking to the WSW of Ireland and by midnight is starting to swing NNE with the associated fronts and rain approaching from the west. This process continues through Friday bringing strong winds and rain to all regions, apart from the south east, but in particular to the west and north of the UK with pulses of heavy rain running up the trailing cold front By midnight Callum is away to the south east of Iceland but another wave has formed in the south west and this also tracks north east bringing more heavy rain and strong winds to western regions on Saturday with the south east remaining dry and very warm. A very marked contrast By Sunday all the fronts have cleared into the North Sea and a transient ridge is over the UK thus a calmer, drier and cooler day, On Monday there are various systems dotted about to the west which are edging east, including the remnants of hurricane Michael, thus a quiet start to day does gives way to some showery outbreaks, again tending to be concentrated in the north west, with temps around average. The NH profile at T120

A spike or rising AAM at the tropics will tend to inject a westerly wind burst and help cancel out the trade winds at the equator. This in turn undermines the strength of sub tropical high pressure belts causing them to retreat south. High momentum at the equator is then balanced by lower momentum at higher latitudes. Therefore when we have higher relative momentum readings at the equator it is a decent precondition to blocking at our latitudes as the jet meanders under reduced momentum conditions at our atlantic latitude. This diagramme does it for me - shows the Hadley Circulation and corresponding balance given to global momentum budgets. Colour contours on my first image between 30 and 60 degrees tend to represent torques applied by the Tibetan Plateau (at about 30 degrees) and the Rockies (closer to 45 degrees). All mountain ranges can apply torque...but these are the big 2 relevant to the northern hemisphere.

Not quite yet - pressure patterns from around the 12th suggesting the possibility of a trough dropping down to the east of the Euro high and perhaps setting a precondition Certainly no torque event happening right this moment - Masiello is just getting excited. If it comes as is possible it will produce +AAM that will help continue the current meridional type circulation. At the moment the most obvious thing to report is that we have some sustained positive relative AAM in pulses, sustaining that meridional jet and more N/S rather than W/E influence. Way way to early really to draw any conclusions from this as we wait to see just how high Nino may push and just how the trop/strat vortex couples up and any sense of sustained pressure patterns. The current Euro block over Scandy would be good news later in winter for setting a precondition for vortex disruption, but not much point getting too excited about such things until we get to November. Cohen's October snow advance theory is an interesting one to keep an eye on at this time of year, but it isn't really a guarantee of anything. Bottom line - too early to risk any kind of forecast.

I think last March showed anything is possible . It was crazy seeing sub zero daytime temps then. As for Prozac it’s an essential part of the UK snow lovers survival kit ! Looking forward in terms of tonight’s outputs an early test for the models re that area to the ne .

Not a bad 240 chart that from the ecm,pv relocated to Siberia on that run with a pocket of height's from Svalbard to Greenland,i would love to of seen a 264hr chart and prob be a stonking one with the Azures high joining up with that HL block to the north,ok i am getting carried away but we all have feelings

CET....I'm with ya, looking at the 850's anom your dead right certainly is looking well, well below the average

If that verifies, it may even bring my 10c CET forecast back into play even though I had written it off before the month had started.

Indeed..P8 is a cracker!!❄❄❄❄❄

Sorry mate but that's complete nonsense. I can tell you that people can and do make a lot of money from LRFs! Anyway, I'm giving a presentation tomorrow on a winter forecast so here goes. Front-ended cold winter with a largely blocked pattern through December and January, mild more likely going into Feb. Negative QBO is transitioning into a positive one through winter which isn't good for cold, but we are now at the very bottom of the solar cycle which plays very much into our favour for a colder winter. ECMWF seasonal* supports this, but then again the UKMO and CFS do not... *EC seasonal has consistently had a very easterly themed December!

And p8 brings the -8c isotherm into play.

Here's the forecast based on the 06z GFS Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg) 13.0C to the 11th... +1.0 (16.8: +5.1) [Daily Record: 17.6C from 1978] 13.2C to the 12th... +1.2 (15.4: +3.8) 13.6C to the 13th... +1.7 (18.5: +7.2) [Previous record 16.8C from 1990] 13.5C to the 14th... +1.6 (11.9: +1.0) 13.3C to the 15th... +1.5 (10.8: +0.0) 13.2C to the 16th... +1.5 (11.5: +1.2) 13.0C to the 17th... +1.4 (10.5: +0.5) 12.8C to the 18th... +1.3 (8.9: -1.2) 12.6C to the 19th... +1.2 (9.8: -0.2) 12.6C to the 20th... +1.2 (10.9: +1.1) Quite a remarkable forecast for the 13th. if it came off, it would push the latest date a CET of 18.5C or more has been recorded 7 days further into Autumn. After that, daily values return close to the seasonal average, with the rolling CET dropping away accordingly.

Yep, I too only think there are 2 seasons, and I like both of them, just not awfully keen on the transitions between them, that's all. That's what was great about the Beast from the East, instant transition from winter to summer, now if that could go the other way now, at mid-Autumn, straight flip to winter that would be great. I think it might take a bit longer though. Looking to the long range, ECM looks to support a cold first part of winter, CFS doesn't, GloSea5 output today is totally inconclusive, which is an improvement on last month if cold is your thing. Still lots to mull over before this winter shows its hand.

I don't look at it like there is 4 seasons, to me there is 2, the season where snow is possible lasting around 6 months, the only one worth bothering about, and the closed season.

Yes it is and the control is at it as well,i know it's just for fun but they do keep on showing it,strong signal!!! gfs/control 12z this mornings 06z para not interested though. a steady trend to cooler temps from the latest gefs ens London,my local and scotland

Yes that is essentially the point Until recently, CO2 levels during the late Ordovician were thought to be much greater than 3000 ppm which was problematic as the Earth experienced glacial conditions at this time. The CO2 data covering the late Ordovician is sparse with one data point in the CO2 proxy record close to this period - it has a value of 5600 ppm. Given that solar output was around 4% lower than current levels, CO2 would need to fall to 3000 ppm to permit glacial conditions. Could CO2 levels have fallen this far? Given the low temporal resolution of the CO2 record, the data was not conclusive. Research examining strontium isotopes in the sediment record shed more light on this question (Young 2009). Rock weathering removes CO2 from the atmosphere. The process also produces a particular isotope of strontium, washed down to the oceans via rivers. The ratio of strontium isotopes in sediment layers can be used to construct a proxy record of continental weathering activity. The strontium record shows that around the middle Ordovician, weatherability increased leading to an increased consumption of CO2. However, this was balanced by increased volcanic outgassing adding CO2 to the atmosphere. Around 446 million years ago, volcanic activity dropped while rock weathering remained high. This caused CO2 levels to fall below 3000 ppm, initiating cooling. It turns out falling CO2 levels was the cause of late Ordovician glaciation.

Gorgeous day, reached 24C with blue skies and sunshine all day.

For those who never saw it watch this .. gets 'interesting' around 30-34 mins in !

Over st helens,it was very bright

Even after the year we've had, most bonkers charts of the year award surely goes to this Saturday morning. On the AROME, the nighttime temperature doesn't go below 20 degrees in many places!!! Would that be the warmest night of the entire year? ARPEGE now going for a 26C high in E Anglia on Saturday. Get the BBQ out!

Wow amazing double rainbow just now at the back edge of the cold front. Sun just about to set.

Starting to get windy here raining now was going to go out for tea changed my mind now wouldn't send a dog out in this Mrs just popped to chippy bless her hope shes took her brolly

Not sure about the last time so to speak but here's the records for each date of October in the UK:

Callum deepening south west of Ireland on the 1500 geostationary

Just something I've noticed. Friday night into Saturday morning london is not forecast to drop below 19oC and where I am here in Hertfordshire its not meant to be below 18oC! I researched the record highest overnight minima and it's 19.4oC for October! Is it a record worth watching out for?!

Flood warnings info for Wales http://www.naturalresources.wales/?lang=en Press release from Met Office about wales Amber https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/2018/amber-rain-warning Netweather MR model does keep main feed of rain into S. Scot and Cumbria Isle of Man Saturday. Like #StormDesmond this will be about the rain by the end of the weekend, even if Friday is pretty wild.

The modern, social media driven, term for that kinda questioning is "sealioning" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sealioning

Clearance here around 1200 UTC. A very sharp delineation between thick Cs and clear air to the west

12.6 to the 10th 0.5 above the 61 to 90 average 0.6 above the 81 to 10 average  __________________________________ Current low this month 9.8 to the 1st Current high this month 13.4 to the 5th

That graph is focused on the area enclosing Arctic ocean, so leaves out a few regions that at this time of year still have ice, such as the Canadian Archipelago and Greenland sea. These other areas (and more that gain ice further into winter... usually) are counted towards the northern hemisphere sea ice extent, which is the most common one we hear about, and the one shown on most official graphs. The region represented in the graph is the likely last place we'll see summer ice as it diminishes, so it's interesting to see how the ice is doing in that particular region.

Beautiful day yesterday, max temp at home just over 17c. Pretty warm for Skye at this time of year! And now we are back to normal, horizontal rain, muggy and downright miserable! I don't think we're going to get hit as badly as first thought tomorrow, I think Callum is keeping most of his strength for Ireland! I've no doubt we'll get a bit of a blast from him! Stay safe anyhoo folks.

Ah another old chestnut. If climate scientists were claiming CO2 was the only driver of climate, then high CO2 during glacial periods would be problematic. But any climate scientist will tell you CO2 is not the only driver of climate. Climatologist Dana Royer says it best: "the geologic record contains a treasure trove of 'alternative Earths' that allow scientists to study how the various components of the Earth system respond to a range of climatic forcings." Past periods of higher CO2 do not contradict the notion that CO2 warms global temperatures. On the contrary, they confirm the close coupling between CO2 and climate. These throwaway lines from deniers continue to be spouted as a diversionary tactic and just as swiftly kicked into touch. They do so simply out of desperation at their inability to produce credible scientific evidence to contradict the overwhelming consensus.

Bit weird for me that other hurricanes have had 24/7 coverage even on UK news channels but this one has had very little, yet appears to be the "real deal". Is that because of a "cry wolf" over previous storms? Or just media choices?

Sunspot number: 0 Updated 11 October 2018 Current Stretch: 6 days 2018 total: 164 days (58%) The Radio Sun 10.7 cm flux: 70 sfu

And that's just the wife

Off the farm for a few days but back to 18c and green fields again this afternoon.Wintering sheep will be glad of the bite just the kind of autumn we need to shorten the winter.Amazing contrast to the weather to the west of us these past few days.

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean indicates a much more unsettled and significantly colder pattern during mid / late october..good to see!

Incredible photos!

All I can say is this footage is insane on here. Will be an incredible long line till we get another vid like this https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10156491591296138&id=501146137&refsrc=http%3A%2F%2Ft.co%2F00aW6sCVBM&_rdr

The more changeable outlook expending further into England and Wales is following the upper air pattern predicted by the 500 mb anomaly charts. For a week or two now they have oscillated between more ridgy and more troughy for the UK but now seem, over the past few days, to have gone for a more disturbed Atlantic flow. Uncertain though whether, as they have so often for many weeks now, revert back to weather more ridge affected. A wait and see game perhaps? links as always http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html We are of course still well within the Hurricane season so further complications from any residual storms getting out into the N Atlantic will likely throw more uncertainty for several weeks to come.

And like the GFS 00z the 6z has a plunge from the north in FI . Let's hope they keep on coming .

The difference between me and the usual suspects on here is as follows, if my prediction of global and uk temperatures no more than 1.5c deviation from the current (could be either way) by the year 2100 and probably even 2200 including some mini ice ages and some much warmer periods is wrong and there is a 5c or 7c increase then I will admit I was wrong, will the likes of Paul and BFTV etc do the same if their predictions are wrong - I very much doubt it!

Wow, your high horse is even big than some others on here. I best leave it at that, because if I gave you the reply you truly deserve, I would be banned for life.