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Sorry mate but that's complete nonsense. I can tell you that people can and do make a lot of money from LRFs! Anyway, I'm giving a presentation tomorrow on a winter forecast so here goes. Front-ended cold winter with a largely blocked pattern through December and January, mild more likely going into Feb. Negative QBO is transitioning into a positive one through winter which isn't good for cold, but we are now at the very bottom of the solar cycle which plays very much into our favour for a colder winter. ECMWF seasonal* supports this, but then again the UKMO and CFS do not... *EC seasonal has consistently had a very easterly themed December!

For those who never saw it watch this .. gets 'interesting' around 30-34 mins in !

And like the GFS 00z the 6z has a plunge from the north in FI . Let's hope they keep on coming .

I Thought it would be good if I could share 3 Weather charts with you about the potential storm on Friday I will show the GFS,ARPEGE and ICON and will give you my best forecast as to what I think will be the most likely outcome I will start with The GFS For 6am on Friday morning.. So for 6am GFS show Wind Gusts along the Irish Sea of 65 to 75mph 80mph locally with Gusts of around 55 to 60mph for the far West of Wales and Southwest England, Gusts of around 60mph are shown for much of Ireland and Northern Ireland. By 9am Gusts are mostly in the 60mph bracket for much of Western Scotland, Southern Scotland the far NorthWest of England and much of the Irish Sea for the rest of the Midlands and east Wales 50mph seems likely with Gusts for South East England and East Anglia mainly around 30 to 35mph. As we go through the day the worst of the Winds transfer northwards with winds easing much of Ireland and England and Wales but for the far North of England gusts of 60mph are shown along with much of Scotland with a particular swathe of Damaging winds just off to the west of Scotland with 80mph being progged. Next is the ARPEGE Model for roughly the same timeframe as the GFS.. This is the Arpege for 4am which shows the storm arriving a little earlier showing Gusts for Irish Sea of around 70mph and 60mph for much of Ireland.. Then as we go Through the course of Friday winds are shown the spread further eastwards effecting more of England and Wales than the GFS does with Gusts across Central, Southern England aswell as Wales of 40 to 45mph with a swathe of severe wind Gusts pushing through the west of Ireland and Northern Ireland where they may get to 70mph possibly 80mph then as we progress through the rest of the afternoon the worst of the winds will be in Scotland with everywhere seeing atleast 60mph but for the Western Isles Gusts of over 75mph is possible these effect the far west mainland of Scotland too before easing into the evening. If the arpege was to come to fruition I would expect quite a lot of travel disruption some Trees blown down and minor structural damage mainly in the above mentioned areas but even further south for Wales and South west England some damage and disruption would be possible. Lastly but not least the Icon Model which is probably the worst case scenario again I will show the expected wind gusts from 6am onwards on Friday.. This Model is bringing the system in substantially more powerful than the other two with 80 to 85mph being shown for much of the Irish Sea and close to 70mph for the far West of Wales and SouthWest England also widespread winds of 60mph or 70mph for Ireland and Northern Ireland.. Through the Morning on Friday the Icon is showing very Stormy conditions for Western Ireland the Irish Sea and much of West Wales, Northern England and South West England with gusts of 60 to 70mph but for much of Northern Ireland into Western Scotland Gusts of 80 to 90mph are shown and for the Western isles possibly in excess of 100mph during the afternoon transferring to the far North before clearing away but for all of Scotland 60 to 70mph is shown over 80mph locally particularly on hills. If the Icon came to fruition then widespread damage and disruption would be likely for many Northern and Western areas but particularly Ireland Northern Ireland and much of Scotland facing the brunt of particularly vicious gusts of winds. So I’ve shown them and with all the charts and data available at the time I believe Icon to be the closest Although it must be stressed I don’t think this storm will be quite as powerful as the Icon is showing but equally I think the gfs and arpege are underdoing this system a little and I expect slight upgrades in the next day or so. I hope this was easy to read and ofcourse this is my thinking I may be wrong and I thought for the people that don’t know what is being shown for Friday that I would give a detailed analysis of it, details will change. Any questions are welcome and if you don’t agree with what I’ve posted then you are entitled to your opinion and I can take it on board. ⛈

A cheeky little Artic blast on the GFS 00z this morning. Yes in FI but still nice to see .

Last night’s EPS anomaly does have the Atlantic trough edging a tad further west so always a possibility of more general unsettled weather over the UK but essentially still tending towards a west to east divide and with quite a long south westerly fetch of the upper flow some of the UK remaining within the influence of the WAA into Europe that this pattern is likely to initiate. On to more detail starting with the 500mb and surface analysis at midnight and an overview of the WV at 0300 which encapsulates this quite neatly The upshot of all this today is that front. on which an intense little low is forming to the west of Ireland, has finally cleared the north of Scotland and with the high cell a way to the east the UK is under a southerly breeze so a warm and sunny day for just about everyone once any early morning fog/mist has cleared. But systems to the west are edging in and a trough tracking north does bring some showery rain into the south west by early evening and later to other areas. During Thursday the wave depression to the west has deepened considerably and is 961mb south of Iceland whilst the associated cold front traverses the country accompanied by a line of heavy showers, perhaps thundery. Remaining dry and quite warm to the east of the front Meanwhile another low has formed in the southern quadrant of the intense upper trough and undergone explosive cyclogenesis and is tracking rapidly NNE west of Ireland. This and the associated fronts will bring some wet and very windy weather to much of the UK on Friday, but particularly the west and north. But pertinent to the opening comment, although i many ways irrelevant, temps quite a way above average. Over Friday night and through Saturday another low forms at the base of the trough, fortunately no explosive cyclogenesis involved this time, but it does track NNE over Scotland and with the associated fronts will bring more rain and strong winds to the west and north with the south east probably remaining dry with temps still significantly above average. The front(s) do eventually cross the whole of the country by Sunday so all areas are in a cooler airmass And the NH profile at T120 is not a million miles from where we came in

The more changeable outlook expending further into England and Wales is following the upper air pattern predicted by the 500 mb anomaly charts. For a week or two now they have oscillated between more ridgy and more troughy for the UK but now seem, over the past few days, to have gone for a more disturbed Atlantic flow. Uncertain though whether, as they have so often for many weeks now, revert back to weather more ridge affected. A wait and see game perhaps? links as always http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html We are of course still well within the Hurricane season so further complications from any residual storms getting out into the N Atlantic will likely throw more uncertainty for several weeks to come.

If a man shows no problem dismissing evidence and experts in order to believe an objectively false idea, it's makes me question his reasoning abilities. Does it not make you question his reasoning? Or is the only thing that matters is he supports your viewpoint? As for Judith Curry producing numerous articles for the IPCC, I doubt that. A reviewer, perhaps. But it's not that difficult to be a reviewer. Complained about for using uncertainty ranges - complained about when they don't! Also, what's been released is the summary for policy makers i.e., a dumbed down version that non-experts can understand and take away the important points from. The full report will have more detail, uncertainty ranges and more stuff to complain about. Every year we get predictions of cooling. It will cool when the PDO turns negative X It will cool when solar activity declines X It will cool when the AMO turns negative X It will cool when a have a prolonged solar minimum X It will cool when scenario A, B, C or D happens... Instead we keep warming, and warming, and warming. I see no reason, given the basics physics of the climate, recent trends, computer models, paleoclimate data, etc, that this warming will cease. 1.5C above pre-industrial during the 2030s? Easily more sensible, likely and evidence based than any climate denier theories. Though I guess 12 years+ gives plenty of time for more excuses as to why we're not cooling to be dreamed up!

There is an Eastern Asian mountain torque event happening right now which will flip the pattern in north america that has persisted most of the summer and early autumn courtesy of pacific jet extension and a split jet at eastern side of north america. This may have subsequent effect on the Atlantic jet, unfortunately I am not skilled enough yet to predict what effect these EAMT events have on the long range circulation in our vicinity, for this I desperately need insight from likes of Tamara,GP,Lorenzo or Chionomaniac to explain it in layman terms, unfortunately non of them has posted for long time which is a pity.

All I can say is this footage is insane on here. Will be an incredible long line till we get another vid like this https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10156491591296138&id=501146137&refsrc=http%3A%2F%2Ft.co%2F00aW6sCVBM&_rdr

Another Gfs run with a very unsettled / disturbed and chilly late october with a risk of wintry ppn at least on northern hills and always a chance of something much colder and more wintry from the north as the 0z / 6z showed..a different face of autumn and one i would like to see now!❄❄

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Neither Roy Spencer (who's also a creationist) or Judith Curry (now retired) have published any meaningful climate papers in years, perhaps decades. Those they have published have been debunked or retracted by the journal. They are 2 of about 4 in your camp that have relevant qualifications and some published studies under their belts. On the other hand, there are literally thousands of other actively working scientists more qualified to comment on the climate debate than those two mentioned. Yet why do you ignore them? Might it be the few dissenting voices on the climate denier site get disproportionate publicity through climate denier media channels? I work and interact with climate scientists all the time, and my own PhD involves quite a bit of climatology too. My department has climate and ice sheet modellers, paleoclimatologists, permafrost experts, etc. I have never met a single expert, not locally or internationally, that thinks humanity is not the primary driver of climate change. This feels a bit like standing in the middle of a forest, surrounded by trees, sending you photos of the trees and with experts reports confirming it's a forest, - while you tell me I'm biased and ignoring the truth that it's a desert because a blog said so.

Amazing that you completely ridicule predictions at a 3 month lead time and criticise people who have no uncertainty principle as charlatans, yet you are so sure of these boiling hot winters 100 years away, 'Double standards' Ed as usual.

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean indicates a much more unsettled and significantly colder pattern during mid / late october..good to see!

The Ecm 12z is a generally unsettled run with lows chasing each other across the atlantic towards the uk bringing some wet and windy spells and the really warm weather is over after saturday with predominantly colder air and just short-lived milder interludes...proper autumn!!

Just read a comment on facebook from someone with a profile stating they work at NBC15... that they've heard from Brett's Wife that he's OK.

A few cams to check https://codepen.io/mcmcghee/full/GYmZjZ

I'll settle for this anytime over heights to the south which have been nothing but a borefest for oh so long. Great to finally see the jet digging somewhat further south with lots of mobility promised for the foreseeable. Although with all of that said the overnight Ecm 00z run is not looking quite as unsettled in the latter frames unlike the previous run.

12.2 to the 9th 0.1 above the 61 to 90 average 0.2 above the 81 to 10 average  __________________________________ Current low this month 9.8 to the 1st Current high this month 13.4 to the 5th

Not wishing to be flippant given the seriousness of the situation but is it just me who thinks this pic makes it look like a malevolent budgie?

Wonderful Indian summer's day. We had the air frost Sunday dawn

Another glorious day weather wise with amazing visibility can’t wait for tomorrow and the promise of a bit of warmth too !

That would be a shock to the system. This year seems to have been one of extremes, instead of the usual gradual switch of seasons, we've jumped from one straight into the other. Just imagine if the summer on steroids we've had is matched equally by winter.

Not quite yet - pressure patterns from around the 12th suggesting the possibility of a trough dropping down to the east of the Euro high and perhaps setting a precondition Certainly no torque event happening right this moment - Masiello is just getting excited. If it comes as is possible it will produce +AAM that will help continue the current meridional type circulation. At the moment the most obvious thing to report is that we have some sustained positive relative AAM in pulses, sustaining that meridional jet and more N/S rather than W/E influence. Way way to early really to draw any conclusions from this as we wait to see just how high Nino may push and just how the trop/strat vortex couples up and any sense of sustained pressure patterns. The current Euro block over Scandy would be good news later in winter for setting a precondition for vortex disruption, but not much point getting too excited about such things until we get to November. Cohen's October snow advance theory is an interesting one to keep an eye on at this time of year, but it isn't really a guarantee of anything. Bottom line - too early to risk any kind of forecast.

Thanks for posting that JoeShmoe. That is a video I will never forget watching live and it will be me for ever.

Well Met Office tweeted that Northolt did 24.6C today. The warmest October day since that incredible 2011 spell when we got 29.9C on 1st October. We didn't quite beat the 10th October temperature record either of 25.6C from 1921. The sun is now at about the same strength as it was during the beast from the east earier this year, but today with a max about 25-30 degrees higher.

Looking through the GEFS 12z there's plenty of support for a generally unsettled / disturbed and colder atlantic pattern through late october and a sprinkling of wintry possibilities for northern high ground, the most unsettled weather further north but everyone would see more of it than has been the case so far this autumn..I've enjoyed the benign warm sunny weather but I'm hoping for a change to something much colder and stormier during the second half of this month!☺

Alternate link to Brett's Car's feed (can't really call it Brett's feed anymore!)

Eye is just coming onshore. I would say we have landfall.

Gotta love storm chaser mentality...

Fantastic clip! I loved it. The contrails look like skyrockets! Only trouble is, you're now going to have to post one of these EVERY DAY please.....

Madness indeed but who even reads the bbc these days.

Sunny.... Warm.... Honestly feels like May today. 10/10 weather! Thanks @Summer Sun for doing the sunshine dance. Just make sure you do the dance the rest of the week. The Atlantic can just go for a nap till early, or mid, November. And then it can send its Lows to the South and East of the UK and bring snow.

Never thought I'd ever type this sentence here, but needs must Michael is now creeping up to Pineapple Willie's.

Phew we've went straight back to high summer today it's warm very warm indeed

When you have a president who talks about fake media , conservative commentators who talk about a deep government global warming conspiracy overstating hurricanes and a population who voted 70-80% for Trump , messages of impending disaster are probably falling on deaf ears

And Michael has now reached cat 4. Not looking good over the north east Gulf Coast

This morning's updated fax for Friday/Sat and apart from some very strong winds some significant rainfall is on the cards

It’s been lovely here for sure, I just don’t think there's any real correlation between the weather now and what we will get in the middle of winter. In fact I’d probably be slightly more optimistic as we’ve had a complete lack of zonal dominated weather since that ssw!

Came on here just to say, it really is a beautiful day I know there's clouds, it's cool, it's grey But for me, it is a beautiful day You're strangers all, but kind of not So I've got to share the news I've got Right now in my baby's arms does lay A bouncing boy, born this day A brand new grandson, oh lucky me Forgive me all for sharing my glee!

I wouldn’t take that too seriously wind gusts are very likely to be much more than that come Friday Daytime just keep following the model outputs and ask people in here for updates if you need them but they are all showing a potential storm on Friday. Hope that helps!

I see he is now a Cat 3 with further strengthening expected over the next 12 hrs..

It takes a while, the atlantic huffs and puffs and eventually blows the house down by T+240 hours on the Ecm 12z. That block to the east is very strong and fights really hard but eventually those heights are shunted further east and it becomes much more unsettled nationwide.

It's worth another look at the astonishing WAA into northern Europe in the near future

Lovely clear skies today and a nice warm feel to things, high pressure close by and.........zzzzzzzzzzzzzz hopefuly November brings Us a bit more seasonal weather.

Got our 1st Gefs member showing snow on today’s Gefs 6z run