Leaderboard

Well if people want a cold start to winter, the charts showing today (i'm looking specifically at the 12z and 18z GFS) are pretty on point. Huge blocking to the E and NE which is enabling the trop vortex to remain perturbed. The next thing we'd want to see after this is some pressure from the Canadian vortex pushing a trough ESE across the Atlantic, this troughing not making it much further E than the meridian (with HP remaining to the ENE). Once we get to this point, we're in November 2009 territory... Can we get there, that's the question? However, the modelling is looking very closely aligned to EC seasonal thus far...

I urge caution for the next 5 days. 91L in the Caribbean has been declared a cherry and will head north. How strong it gets, it's exact path and how it phases with the Jet Stream will all add to the potential for chaotic modelling changes in the 5-10 day range. Leaving out 91L and we see the continued monster westerly wind burst continuing and the development after mid October of something for the UK from the north/east.

If we can get some more retrogression then this could look interesting later, in the meantime it looks as the the week from the 13th - 20th could be remarkably warm for mid October. What a week to take off if such charts verify! The weather can do all it likes thereafter, preferrably endless beasts from the east interspersed with Greenland highs and channel lows until mid March.

Longer term as we approach latter part of the month - the synoptics on offer next week are good building blocks as others have said for something colder from the north and east - warm air advection in turn creating cold air advection over west russia..trigger for a retrogressive high pressure pattern, the fly in the ointment is the uncertainty caused by ex tropical storm/hurricane activity - its this factor which will either aid the transgression from warm/settled to possible cold/settled or not.. Always important to keep a look at the broad picture. The jet pattern shows no signs of going zonal and flat anytime soon, as it hasn't done in the main since February. ECM hinting at such a evolution..

Another shockingly warm run for the ECM with plenty of days over 20C coming up between now and mid month (and not just in the SE I would expect). But I too can see a route to cold later in the month now (certainly no strong trend at this stage though) - which is to pull the high pressure cell over E Europe further west - the ECM achieves this today with the help of Leslie stalling to South - yes, still warm at D10, but if the high stays there it would stay turning cooler from that point as the winds start to obtain an easterly element. Anyway so far off, just thought I'd post something to give the coldies hope (!), main theme is exceptional mild weather for the time of year to carry on for some time bar the odd front passing through.

A ramping up of the Atlantic is fine, as long as we maintain some form of heights to the NE...look at Nov 2009...extremely wet and Atlantic driven for the UK but with the main troughing not being allowed to progress much further than our shores. It's when you see the jet complete a full circular loop around the NH, unabated, that we need to worry. As usually once the strat and trop vortex connect, you're reliant on a SSW (which with a wQBO and solar min combo are quite rare). Therefore, this season, we'll be looking at the trop pattern to lead us to wintry goodness further down the line.

Definitely a day for indoors will light a fire shortly. Loving the autumn colours this year

Stunning charts for the time of year on the Gfs 6z operational showing summer like conditions in the run up to mid october..and possibly beyond with temperatures well above the seasonal average, indeed, very warm, especially across southern uk..It looks like a memorable spell next week with temps into the low / mid 20's c for some of us..Enjoy.☺?️

I'm with quite a few others on here.....i love the cold in the winter, but the facts are it's too still too early for any of that yet, so if we can extract one more burst of warmer weather for the year then i'm all for it. Thankfully it appears we are going to get just that this week! From Monday onwards it looks like we are going to see temps in the high teens/low twenties for a good week. ECM ensembles have slightly tipped towards the high winning out, but there is still a good chance that the low may push the best conditions further east.

I am a coldie - cold can wait till December. Bring on the October warmth! ECM looks great medium term, especially in the SE.

So... we're now on 159 days, with 86 days left, the maximum number of spotless days we could theoretically achieve is 245 days. Realistically, there is likely to be a few more sunspots by the end of the year but I reckon we will still manage to pass the 200 mark

Morning all, it was a stunning day in the Austrian Alps yesterday. More of the same this coming week with high upper temps to stay for many. We have a forecast high of 25c for Salzburgerland on Tuesday which is just amazing. C

Benign, settled and, dare I say it, seasonally above average temperatures on offer from the models for around the 13th October according to these charts: ECM +192 The continental air is relatively warm and dry with almost all of the European continent rain-free: GFS GEM agrees: Oh dear. JMA begs to differ: JMA: Interesting. I wonder who will get the closest to verifying......

The outlook is essentially a battle between the energy in the Atlantic and the block to the east. Taking last evening’s EPS this would indicate an initial victory for the latter with the upper flow backing SW. or even SSW, in the vicinity of the UK which would likely only serve to emphasise a NW/SE split. with some fairly warm advection into the latter. Back to this morning and the sharply defined upper trough and the surface analysis at midnight The waving front and rain belt are currently orientated the Humber >Wales>south west and will track south east through the day, finally clearing Kent by around 2100. Further north much drier and cooler with some showers over northern Scotland and the clearer weather will spread south during the day as the front clears. Temperatures will be severely depressed over much of central England under the rain in the very brisk north easterly wind. Once the rain has cleared it will be a clear and cold night under the ridge with a widespread frost by morning But the next frontal system is quickly arriving on the scene to the north west and this will bring rain and strengthening winds to N. Ireland and western Scotland by dawn which will spread to much of Scotland and parts of northern England during the day. Further south it will be a pretty sunny day, albeit not overly warm. With low pressure continuing to reside to the north west of the UK and the associated front remaining straddled across Scotland the wet and quite windy weather is set to continue in the north on Monday, the rain tending to be concentrated over western Scotland, whilst further south remains under the influence of the ridge and thus sunny and dry. , Over Tuesday and Wednesday we are progressively getting into opening comment territory with the upper flow backing And thus over the two days any rain and breezy conditions pretty much confined to N. Ireland and north west Scotland with the rest of the UK having some fine and dry weather and getting quite warm with temps above average And he NH profile at T120 which is more or less where we came in

I know it probably won’t occur exactly like this, but that is a seriously long drawn flow all the way from the South the 12Z GFS is showing towards next weekend. Some people may be looking forward to seeing an Easterly turn up at some point, but a beast from the South will have to do for now.

Becoming incredibly warm next week (by early / mid october standards) is the main theme of the Ecm 12z, breezy / windy at times with a blow torch feel to some days, could be some very remarkable maxima recorded next week where the best of the dry sunny weather occurs further s / e / ne / se..and some very mild nights!?️

The upper pattern which showed a NW-SE split the last time I posted has not changed markedly. However the slight shift to a more blocked pattern SE-E even possibly NE (500 mb anomaly charts) does seem to imply that more than just the SE may have more settled rather than changeable weather over the next 2 weeks. That is once this current system has worked its way clear of the UK. As sb comments above this idea could become redundant if any TS's get into the N Atlantic, beyond the one that seems happy to stay where it is at the moment-not very usual what it is doing. links http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Indeed. This is exactly what needs to happen to increase our cold winter chances. The models seem to be firming up on an Indian summer scenario for us next week. However, we have to look at the bigger picture. The northern hemisphere views for next week show this perfectly. The eastern European block which will bring us the lovely late warmth is also the driving mechanism that delivers winter to central/eastern Russia during next week. Great early building blocks from where I am sitting.

Ha! just posted and minds alike

God has done splendidly with His paint pot this evening, stunning sky from Winchelsea Beach.

More runs driving that southerly flow well into the arctic in our part of the NH - I’m thinking that’s good for preventing the strat vortex getting it’s act together

The GEFS 12z mean indicates increasingly very warm conditions next week and next weekend also looks summery..incredible by mid october standards!☺

The rain has finally come as I thought it would not come. I arrived two hours early but I am glad it came as it means that I don't have to water the plants in my back garden.

Sunspot number: 0 Updated 06 October 2018 Current Stretch: 1 day 2018 total: 159 days (57%) The Radio Sun 10.7 cm flux: 69 sfu

Good dumping in Sweden/Finland.

The 18z gfs illutrates trough disruption to the west/southwest of the uk sending lows on a NW>SE trajectory in it's latter stages thanks to a block to the NE in Scandinavia and we have a black hole anomoly as early as t204 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=204&code=0&mode=12&carte=1 i know this is early days but i would like to see this happen come the winter months

Lol sorry i am late to the party(just got in from work)but the 12z gfs keeps Hurricane Leslie spiraling around the Atlantic for all of it's run,infact at the end of the run it's in a very similar place to the 168hrs

Seeing some of the warm charts, such as that 12Z ECMWF later next week, it would almost feel like Hotober.

There's plenty of unseasonably warm weather on the Ecm 12z..not really october like..more summer like at times..nice ending too!

Wow there are some really warm charts on offer this evening for next week. With uppers commonly above 10C for most from midweek onwards, there could be some very impressive temps with perhaps some records threatened. The ECM is quite incredible for next weekend. The chart for Sunday shows 14C uppers over eastern Scotland. In that setup you'd fancy places like Aboyne to do very well with a chance of 25C being reached.

I've just got home from a very pleasant drive and occasional stroll around in the warm Autumn sunshine taking in some of the many delights on offer here in East Sussex. I Set off from home in St Leonards on Sea, ending up at Birling Gap and the Seven Sisters, via Normans Bay, Pevensey Castle, Eastbourne, Beachy Head and Belle Toute. Great to see so many smiling faces out and about making the most of the good weather, 20.8c locally

GEM 12z shows probably the most optimistic solution of those on the table for a late blast of summer heat next weekend, here at T192:

Maybe the chance of a plume next mid week. Reminds me of the 11th Oct 2006. That was fun.

Further to the above post as @Northernlights has just reminded me, a mild dry October is just great for the farming community. Its just from a meteorological point of view , I find this set a bit of a bore. Having said that, its like summer again this morning in the mountains and the fine weather is helping with the final stages of the construction of our new gondola, well ahead of finishing time. Yes, the cows still grazing on the upper slopes with snow cover back up to over 2500m. C

I totally agree Crewe. As with most things though, timing is everything. I remember looking at the charts during November 09 and comparing them to early Nov 62. Trough hitting the block to the east and negatively tilting. I had that great gut feeling about it. The rest is history of course. Anyway, going back to the timing aspect. I don't want Nov 62/09 to happen in Oct 18. Just a tad too early for my liking. We need the Euro southerly draw first.

back to summer next week

October 1888, now that was a very strange month 1-7th October: 5.0C 25th-31st October: 12.4C CET trackometer 1. 6.1 2. 5.1 3. 5.2 4. 5.3 5. 5.2 6. 5.0 7. 5.0 8. 5.2 9. 5.5 10. 5.7 11. 6.0 12. 6.3 13. 6.4 14. 6.4 15. 6.4 16. 6.4 17. 6.5 18. 6.7 19. 6.8 20. 6.7 21. 6.7 22. 6.6 23. 6.6 24. 6.6 25. 6.7 26. 7.0 27. 7.4 28. 7.7 29. 7.8 30. 7.9 31. 7.9

The 12z GFS appears to be heading to record high territory with some hints of a cooler regime at end of the run (which is 22nd) but values as high as 14 could be reached by 17th-20th in the rolling CET with this nearly constant subtropical feed setting up. A number of daily records look to be under threat also, after we set two new ones last year on 14th and 16th, maybe we'll add the 15th this time around. Here's an odd fact also, the warmest October (2001 at 13.3) failed to set any daily records, although 14.0 on 30th would have tied on the 29th.

i was just coming here to say that - after such a terrible storm season it would be a blessing to get anything thundery at this point. really hope this stays on the cards

Never seen such a length of warm weather for so long going by the gfs 12z...it just goes on and on, if that is anywhere near the mark for the next fortnight then this October will be very warm heading towards record breaking.

Another upper low swings SE within the complex trough N. Canada/Greenland in the highly amplified pattern over N. America Which sets in motion downstream the changes that result in the WAA into Europe

The wave is a little further south than forecast yesterday on the 1500 geo. The front was just through here

13.4 to the 5th 1.1 above the 61 to 90 average 1.2 above the 81 to 10 average  __________________________________ Current low this month 9.8 to the 1st Current high this month 13.4 to the 5th

Sunny Sheffield at 12.2C -1.3C below normal, Rainfall 17.6mm 21.3% of normal. After Sunday there should be a slow but steady rise in average temp unless we get some expected cold nights which aren't really on the menu after tonight.

Why has this emerged? First half of summer was exceptional for us in the southeast unncanny to this summer, in fact it was more enjoyable not as oppressive. We have not had a bad summer in yonks!

Please, no? A 'cracking' spell of cold and windy filth, with an outside chance of sleet, might be in store...

In all this current mildness I should know better but looking at FI for a probable (not) Icelandic origination chill around the 18th.

Here's the forecast based on the 06z GFS Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg) 13.1C to the 4th... +0.8 (15.5: +3.6) 13.3C to the 5th... +1.1 (14.2 +2.6) 12.7C to the 6th... +0.6 (9.9: -2.0) 12.1C to the 7th... +0.1 (8.5: -3.2) 11.9C to the 8th... -0.1 (10.5: -1.3) 12.1C to the 9th... +0.1 (13.2: 1.3) 12.4C to the 10th... +0.3 (15.0: +2.8) 12.7C to the 11th... +0.7 (15.7: +4.0) 12.7C to the 12th... +0.7 (13.3: +1.7) 13.1C to the 13th... +1.2 (17.7: +6.4) Very mild, to cool, to warm is the forecast for the next 10 days. Today has a chance of breaking into the 10 warmest for the date (15.6C average required). The end of the high res run throws in some exceptional weather with plenty of record breaking potential. That 17.7C on the 13th, were it to happen, would be the latest date a daily CET of 17.5C or higher has been recorded.

If anyone fancies comparing the dates of previous deep minima and the weather in this country, here's a really handy site. It uses lots of different sources to glean what the weather was like prior to Hubert Lamb and the CET record. https://www.booty.org.uk/booty.weather/climate/histclimat.htm