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Certainly no October Bore fest over in Calgary last night. 20 -30cm fresh snowfall. A different climate in the Prairies !

The OPI had a lot of attention but didn’t amount to much . And crashed and burned when it promised a colder winter which never materialized . As everyone knows who follows these forums in winter anything that suggests a colder winter and doesn’t deliver is dispatched to the outer corners of the universe!

An even colder outlook on the CFS.

60cm's at my friends place in Kananaskis - 45 mins from Calgary in the foothills of the Rockies. 45cm's at my place in Canmore. The highways were a mess.

Nothing significant to report regarding the short range outlook but just to mote that the pattern change that has been indicated for a while is starting to emerge. That is a deep Atlantic trough accompanied by height rises’ in central/eastern Europe. So in the interim a quick look at the oceanic and atmospheric picture over the Atlantic which does appear to be mutually supportive of the above. Meanwhile back to the detail and the 500mb and surface analysis at midnight it has been a cloudy and mild night in all areas with some bits and bobs of rain in western areas and this essentially will be the same through the day, and where the cloud breaks, likely central and eastern areas, it will be quite warm. But the cold front just NW of Scotland on the above chart will gradually track south east, preceded by another front sliding in from the west, bringing rain to Scotland and northern England by late morning and through the afternoon. Showery and cooler weather in the wake of the front The front will continue to slip very slowly south overnight and through Friday, virtually coming to a standstill over central England. Thus cloudy with patchy rain in this area, whilst either side of the front quite a contrast. Very warm in the south and much cooler with showers in the north. By Saturday the front has eventually cleared the south coast but complications have arisen with an upper trough slipping south west of the UK and a wave forms on the front over Biscay. Thus it is going to be quite wet and breezy over Wales and central/southern England though Saturday and also a very cold day in the north westerly wind as the ridge stretches north east behind the front. By Sunday the rain has cleared and the ridge is influencing the southern half of the UK but the next frontal system is rapidly approaching from the west bringing rain and strong winds into N. Ireland and Scotland by the afternoon . The front(s) will continue to move slowly south east overnight and through Monday thus patchy rain and quite breezy in the north of England with showery conditions behind but temps on the whole are around average but a tad above in the north in the south westerly flow. And on to the NH profile at T120 which is not a million miles away from where we came in Nothing to do with this thread but interesting to note that Leslie thumbs a lift later

A colder outlook on the gfs 12z!

Ugly indeed, yet if you look at the height anomaly over the Taymyr peninsula for the same time: ...it's not so bad, and - as referenced on the Analogues thread - the TCA appears to be the best performing of the precursor methods for predicting the winter AO. Seems like there's a new index for this every year though, SCE (snow cover extent), SAI (snow advance index), OPI, POL,...

In the short term - a shift to a cooler outlook as the polar front boundary pivots south through the UK, meaning most away from far south come the weekend, will see quite a marked downturn in temperatures and rain for central parts - some heavy. Into next week, back to the southwesterly airstream, murky wet dull conditions for the NW, drier and feeling very pleasant in the south and east. As we move through next week, all eyes on the position of heights to our east, if these are centred more over Germany/Denmark then the atlantic will be held off, and we will stay locked in a very mild southwesterly/southerly airstream with the jet elongated far to the north on a sw-ne trajectory, and we may see a resurgent azores high which will maintain the calmer settled mild period, however, a shift further to the east - as suggested by the ECM this evening and increasingly so the GFS longer term, then the atlantic will have an easy time fighting back, and indeed we could then see generally unsettled conditions for all, possibly cyclonic and increasingly cooler again.

That UKMO T144 is a good as it gets for this time of year, won't be far off 25C I reckon if it comes off (and it's not as if the ensembles haven't been threatening it) Now - Check this out from the ECM - T192 - central pressure below 950mb!

OPI..INDEX.. please give me strength!. An in-add, telecon that de-mirrors itself time..and time again!.. 9/10 plots/scopes..are irrelevant to the dynamics that are the forcing of such...and direct/now fortunes are the best apply... I'll chuck up some compares for its 'dire responses'!!!! Its dog s##t ....for me anyway!

Great photos. I live at a height higher than Canmore and have never seen snow like that in early October ! C

The mean takes away its clusters...'somewhat'!.. And an-elevation non-maxima applys... Mjo signal starts its phasing ... And has a defined, momentum. And highlights the blocky signal...angular momentum and high/mid-lattitude format in a desirable place for the time in place... Russian pen-/and pacific ridging will be of massive/paramount this season. We'll take all other telecons-parameters as they evolve.... Likely an early notable cold snap into NW-europe should things keep the Balance!!.. Arctic anoms also of major note... The (pv) is in a state of mass confuse at this point....'given'- its trying to evolve and counter.....however basin complexities and the already mentioned.... Certainly a-desirable juncture to view....as winter steps in....

What looks like being a quite intense pattern change gets underway quite early in the piece with the ejection of a lobe of the vortex from northern Canada into the north west Atlantic, from whence it develops, eventually in conjunction with fairly rapid height rises to the east of the UK Apparently the deformation of the jet quite so sharply over North America is quite unusual. There is a lot of energy swanning about here

Not having a go at anyone but for the sake of a couple more weeks it really would have made sense to keep open the winter thread which was opened this week. I'm pretty sure the above posts would have been posted in that thread had it remained open as opposed to cluttering this thread. Just saying.

Every (supposedly...) from 1976-2012 - correlation 0.91 - Relive the hysteria - https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/81494-october-pattern-index-opi-monitoring-winter-season-2014-2015/

Right, here is the list: Les Arcs (currently lovely and sunny): https://www.lesarcs.com/livecam-vagere.html#ong333 Alpe D'Huez: https://www.alpedhueznet.com/webcams/dmc-mid-station Edelweisspitze: https://edelweissspitze.panomax.com/ Obertauern: https://www.bergfex.com/obertauern/webcams/ Stelvio: http://www.stelvio.net/english/webcam/ Iceland: https://www.livefromiceland.is/webcams/jokulsarlon/ Svalbard: http://longyearbyen.kystnor.no/ Finland: https://www.rovaniemi.fi/layouts/rovaniemi/includes/360/lordi-aukio.asp?sek=10 For all of those, I click around the related webcams, so for example Edelweisspitze has a lot of webcams around Mannlichen, Jungfrau etc. Many of these I have gathered from the lovely folks on the Worldwide Snow thread, especially @carinthian @Blessed Weather @johnholmes and @Paul. It is an excellent thread for snow enthusiasts. Also, OnTheSnow have a good list. Enjoy:)

Morning all. Regarding the above post, just this time last week most models were showing retrogression of the European high into October. This chart below from UKMO shows the reverse with a strong build of pressure remaining in situ. Nice weather where you get the sunshine but a bit of a October bore fest for those stuck under cloud and nothingness, if you know what I mean. However, despite all the numerical predictions of Leslies eventual track in 7 days time, wind data as highlighted in the above post remains sparse and the picture could well look completely different in the models this time next week.

It's now looking increasingly likely that towards the weekend after next unseasonal warmth will be the order of the day, this possibility evident from the models for some time now. First GFS T240: GEM take interesting with this 16C uppers over Shetland: Here's the FV3 at T240: that heat's gone a bit north no? ECM at same time: And apropos of nothing, today the CFS offers this at T1794: Happy days all round.

Really quiet in here..anyway this from the Ecm 12z would certainly blow the cobwebs away...very autumnal indeed!

If ever there is a run that sums up my weather tastes the 18z CFS from the 3rd of October, Northerlies and Easterlies galore right the way out for 2 months - -8c to -10 engulfing the country even in early April including an insane blizzard in early March for Northern UK. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=2694&mode=0&carte=1&run=0

After a bright breezy mild morning a dramatic looking front came a cross the Firth about mid afternnoon and gave a couple of hours rain. Cooler clearer and dryer air arrived about an hour ago. Currently 9c

Everybody is entitled to their own opinion or produce their own forecast but watched some of this and struck me as not going into anything in detail...actually spoke to him on you tube and his reasoning for a very cold UK winter coming up and said 'when the NE States have a cold winter the UK generally does to'...well of recent years with the warm eastern seaboard the opposite has occurred (remember 2013/14 winter with the raging Polar Vortex? and severe weather over Canada/NE States, was it cold here?...nope, flooding and very mild what I remember). So basically binned what he said...

Misty and grey autumn dog walk today ...

Is he a mate of Nathan Rao from the Express?

To be fair that's more like a spring snowstorm so was unusual for the time of year. Here's hoping the set up is right for Europe this year that we all get to share in this type of weather

Massive westerly wind burst occuring over the central and east pacific over the next week (one of the strongest on record i imagine). I would look to significant ridging to the north and east developing in the final half of October.

You bought the Express ? I’m amazed the Mods are still allowing you on here

EWP (NCIC version) in at 72.8 mm, a bit higher than the current Hadley estimate of 68 mm (we'll see where that one finalizes in a few days). Scoring is now posted over in competition scoring thread. Top scores are: RANK _ FORECASTER ____________ F'cast ____ Error ___ score __ 01 __ JeffC ____________________ 74.0 ______ +1.2 ____ 10.0 __(02) _ average 1981-2010 ________ 71.1 ______--1.7 _____ 9.9 __ 02 __ Radiating Dendrite _________ 71.0 ______--1.8 _____ 9.8 __(03) _ average 1988-2017 ________ 74.7 ______ +1.9 _____ 9.7 __ 03 __ Dr(S)No _________________ 75.5 ______+2.7 _____ 9.5 __ 04 __ Stargazer ________________ 67.0 ______--5.8 _____ 9.3 __ 05 __ Evening Star (GBRunner12) _ 66.0 ______--6.8 _____ 9.0 __ 06 __ J10 _____________________65.0 ______--7.8 _____ 8.8 __ 07 __ CheesePuffScott __________ 64.0 ______--8.8 _____ 8.5 __ 08 __ LetItSnow! _______________ 62.0 _____--10.8 _____ 8.3 __ 09 __ PolarGael ________________85.5 _____ +12.7 _____ 8.0 __ 10 __ jonboy __________________ 60.0 _____--12.8 _____ 7.8 __ 11 __ Relativistic _______________ 60.0 _____--12.8 _____ 7.6 (+1d late .. 7.8 -- 0.2) __ 12 __ Bobd29 __________________87.0 _____ +14.2 _____ 7.3 ======================================= and the annual contest now looks like this: EWP scoring Dec 2017 to Sept 2018 Rank _ Forecaster _____________Dec_Jan_Feb_Mar_Apr_May_Jun_Jul_Aug_Sep __TOTAL_ previous rank _01 __ SINGULARITY ___________5.2 _7.2 _9.8 _7.7 _6.4 _8.0 _5.7 _9.2 _7.7 _5.0 __ 71.9 ____ 01 _02 __ J10 ___________________ 4.4 _7.6 _0.7 _8.3 _9.2 _9.8 _4.3 _8.6 _5.4 _8.8 __ 67.1 ____ 05 _03 __ POLAR GAEL ___________ 4.6 _9.4 _8.6 _2.6 _8.2 _9.6 _8.4 _5.5 _2.1 _8.0 __ 67.0 ____ 03 _04 __ JONBOY _______________ 9.2 _7.8 _6.4 _9.6 _7.5 _3.7 _0.6 _6.3 _4.4 _7.8 __ 63.3 ____ 06 _05 __ DON __________________ 1.8 _6.1 _7.4 _8.3 _8.8 _4.3 _6.8 _6.3_10.0 _3.0 __ 62.8 ____ 02 (06) __ consensus _____________5.2 _6.3 _5.0 _5.7_7.7 _5.3 _5.3 _8.8 _5.5 _6.0 __ 60.8 ____ (08) _06 __ MIDLANDS ICE AGE ______3.4 _3.3 _9.8_10.0_3.6 _3.0 _8.6 _5.3 _5.7 _7.0 __ 59.7 ____ 09 _07 __ DR (S) NO ______________ 9.8 _8.8 _1.2 _6.2 _6.4 _2.4 _2.4 _3.7 _9.1 _9.5 __ 59.5 ____ 10 _T08__NORRANCE ____________ 7.0 _2.2 _8.4 _9.3 _5.4 _9.4 _1.2 _3.6 _6.4 _6.0 __ 58.9 ____ 08 _T08_CHRISBELL-nottheWxMAN _10.0 _6.8 _2.6 _6.4 _4.0 _3.9 _9.2 _7.8 _8.2 _---- __ 58.9 ____ 04 _10 __ RADIATING DENDRITE ___ 2.0 _2.4 _8.7 _4.5 _2.0 _7.8 _9.4 _9.2 _2.8 _9.8 __ 58.6 ____ 12 _(11) _ average 1981-2010 _______7.5 _6.4 _5.3 _5.0 _2.6 _6.4 _3.2 _1.4_10.0_9.9 __ 57.7 ____ (16) _11 __ BORN FROM THE VOID___6.4 _9.8 _3.5 _5.7 _7.5 _9.0 _1.8 _7.4 _3.3 _2.0 __ 56.4 ____ 07 _12 __ SEASIDE 60 ____________ 5.8 _4.5 _4.8 _8.8 _8.4 _5.1 _5.9 _4.5 _1.8 _4.3 __ 53.9 ____ 11 _(13)_average 1988-2017 (D 87-16) 7.9_7.5 _3.9 _3.4 _2.4 _6.4 _2.4 _1.1 _9.0 _9.7 __ 53.7 ____ (T22) _13 __ REEF __________________ 9.0 _5.3 _2.8 _3.8 _1.8 _7.4 _3.0_10.0_5.4 _3.8 __ 52.3 ____ 14 _14 __ BOBD29 ________________3.2 _7.0 _6.5 _5.9 _5.6 _2.0 _8.8 _3.7 _1.1 _7.3 __ 51.1 ____ 23 _15 __ MULZY _________________7.0 _8.6 _6.7 _0.9 _1.8 _8.2 _4.3 _8.0 _2.5 _3.0 __ 51.0 ____ 15 _16 __ DAVID SNOW____________ 2.2 _3.3 _8.6 _5.7 _5.4 _2.2 _7.0 _4.5 _9.8 _1.8 __ 50.5 ____ 13 _17 __ STARGAZER ____________ 1.4 _9.4 _2.4 _7.1 _2.7 _4.5 _6.5 _6.7 _----_9.3 __ 50.0 ____ 28 _18 __ LET IT SNOW ! __________ ---- _----_ 8.8 _6.5 _4.7 _3.5 _9.6 _0.8 _7.3 _8.3 __ 49.5 ____ 26 _19 __ SYED2878 ______________ 4.8_10.0_3.8 _5.0 _2.2 _6.1 _3.2 _1.8 _9.1 _3.0 __ 49.0 ____ 20 _20 __ GODBER.1 _____________ 2.4 _7.4 _5.5 _3.5 _7.5_10.0 _0.6 _7.4 _2.8 _1.3 __ 48.4 ____ 17 ____ (this month's winner is tied 21 with SteveB at 47.8 points) ____ All the rest of the scoring can be reviewed over at the competition and scoring thread. Link: https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/75427-cet-competition-the-scores-ongoing/?page=10

Monthly Figures - Summary and Top 10 No players got it spot on, with 5 players 0.1c out. Kirkcaldy Weather, coldest winter, daniel, weather-history and ProlongedSnowLover. The top 10 precisely as shown by Roger above. Seasonal - Summary and Top 10. Very much in the same order as the monthly figures above. Overall - Summary and Top 10. No change in the Top 3. 1st Man with Beard 2nd Don 3rd Norrance Elsewhere in the Top 10 Godber_1 up 4th places to 4th. mulzy up 11 places to 6th. Sept 2018 CET.xlsx

finished on a cold cloudy note here in Edmonton...the month has ended at 5.6c which is an incredible -6.1c below normal..wouldn't be surprised if it wasn't one of the coldest Septembers on record

Some media articles have been saying that Hurricane Leslie is heading to the UK, but there is no models confidently forecasting this for now. View the full blog here

We could do with some trough disruption in the atlantic with energy going south and the trough elongating negatively tilted, there could be the start of some better ridging to the North of it though, trying to get into Greenland.

Morning & early afternoon was overcast but mild, getting up to a very respectable 15.5C accompanied by quite a stiff westerly wind. Then a band of rain came through quickly late afternoon, leaving things feeling a good bit cooler (down to 8.5C already) - ground drying up quickly though. Weather not as dramatic as that over in Calgary (lovely place). Record breaking snow, though already melting steadily going by friends over there - link , link 2

It's a slow start this year folks. Could be a good thing in the long run I suppose. Hope you are all well and looking forward to chasing more phantom snowy setups this winter. Lol

And it moves right over the uk by T216 .

Rather warm in Peterborough this afternoon sunny and back to shorts and t-shirt. Cloud formation was interesting as well

Feel some people may be getting a bit too concerned about what this Winter has in store, especially with it being a while away yet. Despite things such as the OPI index, the SAI index etc, and what they could end up indicating, no one really knows for complete certainty what will happen this Winter. Also just a friendly reminder to keep things on topic in here please. I know we don’t have a general Winter chat thread released yet (there will be one fairly soon) but would appreciate by ensuring your post isn’t focused just solely on snow and Winter chat, as they’re at risk of getting wiped out, or moved to any suitable threads we currently have, including the regional weather chat threads. Thanks guys and sorry for being a party pooper. It’s just from time to time, like with other threads, we have to defend the Model thread from unsuitable posts! ??

40cm makes for snowiest October day in a 104 year record for Calgary (3rd video) https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/pandas-puppies-enjoying-early-calgary-snowstorm-while-residents-groan-1.4117743

if the cloud had lifted it would have been really warm I think today ..!

@Ed Stone Read the post by Crewe Cold on this page regarding the death knell.

Utterly irrelevant IMO - it's still only early October, for God's sake!

Anyway..winding and morphing going forwards...could be talk of the town! Atlantic starting 2 buzz..and a likely response to lower/equatorial weighing!!.. Watch this one...a create of its own!.. Landfall apply will be critical!!!..

Cracking day. A bit of mist around this morning, as the sun came up. And here are some sheep that I found on the way to the brewery on Friday.

Banff again, 30cm overnight

Turned cool and wet this afternoon, felt very autumnal. Temperature peaked at 11c earlier in the day. Managed to fit in a great walk up Buachaille Etive Beag on Friday, along with a couple of pints in the Clachaig

Just read that the funicular railway at Cairngorm is to close for 6 weeks because of concerns about the condition of support pillars . Sods Law guarantees a snowy winter now when there is very little other uplift with some even having been dismantled. With my own industry looking for an open mild winter to ease fodder shortages a hard winter is becoming more likely be it excess rain or snow. Horrible cold wet afternoon here October at its worst. Currently breezy and not too cold at 11c

The last ten days averaged 10.9 C, so not quite in the bottom twenty but close to it. A list of the years that had 10.0 or colder in that period (21-30 September) can be found earlier in this thread.

September finished on 13.2c here, 0.3c below the 1981-2010 average. Average Max: 17.7c (+0.2c) Average Min: 8.7c (-0.8c) The low night time temps clearly doing the damage. Rainfall finished at 55.2mm which is 90% of the average.

Hello I thought I should introduce myself. I am Steve Hopley and mainly write weather forecasts for the Cannock Chase, Trent Valley and surrounding area. I have a Facebook account Cannock Chase Weather, Twitter cannockchasewx and my own webpage ...www.cannockchaseweather.co.uk . I also write weather reports for the local radio station Cannock Chase Radio. I upgraded my weather station from the Davis Vue to Davis vantage Pro 2 with WiFidata logger. Looking forward to reading your ideas for this area.

The Gfs 12z operational turns on the heat pump or at least the warmth pump in the run up to mid october with air sourced from way south..a recurring theme with strong height rises to the east and stalling atlantic lows...there could be more very warm weather for the time of year on the way.