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Using the 500 mb anomaly charts, the 3 I use, are all in close agreement, it would suggest a NW-SE split with the most disturbed weather the further north and west one live. Less so for the SE corner but even here the upper air pattern suggests rain and wind here now and then. My notes this morning Ec-gfs show ridging e/ne with major trough around 30 w; Noaa is also similar perhaps 25 w for trough So all 3 now appear settled on this, the flow is strong away from se across atlantic , with the flow looking like right entrance, close to us- and left exit close to nw uk, some deep surface depressions seem likely in the 6-10, extending into the 8-14 as that shows a similar idea. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

It's now looking increasingly likely that towards the weekend after next unseasonal warmth will be the order of the day, this possibility evident from the models for some time now. First GFS T240: GEM take interesting with this 16C uppers over Shetland: Here's the FV3 at T240: that heat's gone a bit north no? ECM at same time: And apropos of nothing, today the CFS offers this at T1794: Happy days all round.

Trees have gone a lovely colour this year:

Assuming winter CET is distributed normally (it's not) then the coldest winter 1684 with a standard deviation of over 3.5 has a less than 1 in 2149 chance of occurring. The 3rd coldest 1962/3 is 3SD which has a chance of 1 in 370.

Short/medium term diagnostics. Although 'no notable' large scale differences.... The eye openers are there 'early on'.. A last gasp of early autumnal warmth aiding in the forward frontal onset of winter...perhaps?!.. A notable large lobe vortex push to an easterly caption!.. And although even @10hpa strat there is nothing of significance...at this point the overal conscientious is there!!.. Also the aiming/conversition of mid'-latt blocking steps are falling on exactions. An alarming-punch of large mass waa keen for punch @mainland/mass eastern quad euro... All this without looking @the shenanigans on the pacific side of northern hem-top global..... Things winding up now...and decipher/watchings becoming ever more interesting..... The ride has opened!!!!

The overriding theme of a N/S split across the UK within the current pattern continues, albeit with a brief interruption this weekend.. Worth noting at the end of the short range is the displacement of the Canadian vortex into the north west Atlantic as illustrated by last evening’s EPS. Back to the here and now and the 500mb and surface analysis at midnight So following on from a post last evening the developing low to the west will continue to deepen and track NNE pushing the associated warm front north east across the north of the UK. The rain from this, currently down western Scotland, will do the same. So wet and quite windy here after a cool and clear start in the east, but the further south is in the warm sectors so fairly cloudy with perhaps some patchy drizzle early on in the west but where the cloud breaks it will be quite warm The passage of the warm front will result in a fairly cloudy and mild night in most areas although the cloud could well break further south and here Thursday will develop into a warm day with light winds. But the aforementioned low is still deepening over Iceland and the waving cold front is in close proximity to Scotland so again it will be wet and windy here and as the front tracks south east the rain and freshening wind will do the same during the day The front will continue to edge south overnight and through Friday as the low to the north continues on it's travel, with patchy rain accompanying it, leaving clearer showery conditions in it's wake. Quite a marked temp contrast either side of the front with temps above average in the south. By Saturday the brief hiatus mentioned at the beginning is underway with an upper trough sinking south and a wave forming on the front which tracks into Biscay bringing some wet and windy weather to Wales and the south of England. And there is some quite cold air behind the front as the ridge builds in from the south west. The rain will clear the south overnight and after a cold start with a frost in many places Sunday will be a sunny and cool day but by late afternoon the next frontal system will bring freshening winds and some rain to the north west. And the NH profile at T120 keeping in mind the opening comment.

On the phone so can't dig them out right now but will post some later - I become a snow webcam fanatic in the winter! In the meantime, the Garsons Farm Christmas display is shaping up nicely

Another golden tinged sunrise - California like !!

Monthly Figures - Summary and Top 10 No players got it spot on, with 5 players 0.1c out. Kirkcaldy Weather, coldest winter, daniel, weather-history and ProlongedSnowLover. The top 10 precisely as shown by Roger above. Seasonal - Summary and Top 10. Very much in the same order as the monthly figures above. Overall - Summary and Top 10. No change in the Top 3. 1st Man with Beard 2nd Don 3rd Norrance Elsewhere in the Top 10 Godber_1 up 4th places to 4th. mulzy up 11 places to 6th. Sept 2018 CET.xlsx

Talk of warm settled weather on here .... but surely not.... my copy of the Express tells me that Britain is going to endure 14 days of Ferocious Weather thanks to a powerful cyclone called Leslie thats hurtling across the Atlantic... Any guesses as to what’s wrong here ??️

Meteociel doesn't forecasting anything, it just presents the output from various NWP models. The link is just showing the output from the latest GFS run which is operated by NCEP in the US. 6/4 for the coldest winter on record is ludicrously short. 500 to 1 would be closer. The whole article is a joke. If El Nino caused cold winters in the UK, we'd be buried every few years.

Massive westerly wind burst occuring over the central and east pacific over the next week (one of the strongest on record i imagine). I would look to significant ridging to the north and east developing in the final half of October.

He's just expressing his opinion Moving swiftly on..it looks like NW Britain will bear the brunt of the unsettled atlantic weather with the SE least affected.

The vortex/trough exiting N. Canada en route the Denmark straits and the front with tenuous connections to Leslie approaching the UK

i like kebabs

It is real! Fog has a smell, too

Seems to me a recurring theme in the GFS is to try and get low pressure systems to sweep in, but because of the block in place to the east they slide up to the west of us introducing some very warm weather for the time of year. Sucking up the warmer air to the south Was it Halloween 2015 that was crazy warm day and night temperatures? I'm not sure what year it was.. 15c uppers getting in on this run... One thing we do need more of down south is rain.. And it's looking more and more slim chance in the next week or so Apart from Saturday afternoon /evening brief affair

I think a word of thanks is once again due in here k. To anyone new to meteorology I would recommend that you read this part of Net Weather. The mix of charts, Fax, rainfall, temperature etc with hardly any personal bias and interpretation is a model (excuse the pun). Maybe the team could make some suggestion in the main thread for new folk to make their way on to this thread. I do so hope that once winter starts that this thread is kept free of the unpleasantness that does occur at times when some folk get frustrated with not getting the weather they hoped for and maybe they felt the models were showing.

Next week would feel more like summer if the Gfs 6z operational is right, a very warm long draw southerly airflow with temperatures into the low 20's celsius..really nice.

Hi Folks Lets Start This Roller Coaster Ride For Winter 2018 2019. Take A Look At Gavs Weather Vids For Some Of The Excelent Winter 18-19 Updates His been doing From September. Here's To A Snowy winter18-19 To All. https://www.gavsweathervids.com/

Table of entries for CET and EWP contests, October 2018 CET forecasts .. number in brackets shows the order of entry (only the last one counts in that regard) ... late entries are shown (L1d-nn) for one day late, order of entry, then L2d and L3d for one each two and three days late. 15.5 __ Lettucing Gutted (10) 13.3 __ __ __ warmest 2001 13.0 __ Blue_Skies_do_I_see (37), Daniel* (L2d) 12.5 __ syed2878 (40) 12.4 __ TJM14 (13) 12.1 __ Roger J Smith (31), Kentish Man (43) 11.8 __ Froze were the days (L1d-3), coldest winter (L3d) 11.6 __ davehsug (55) 11.5 __ Polar Gael (7), vizzy2004 (46), Man With Beard (56) 11.3 __ virtualsphere (21), Stationary Front (42) 11.2 __ snowray (41), Mulzy (53) 11.1 __ Reef (52), seaside60 (L1d-2) 11.0 __ J10 (57) __ average 1988-2017 10.9 __ Blast From The Past (26) 10.8 __ EdStone (11), Mark Bayley (30), Dkeane3 (54), DAVID SNOW (L1d-5) 10.7 __ Summer Blizzard (1), Summer Sun (34), metaltron (50) __ average 1981-2010 10.6 __ Midlands Ice Age (17), Relativistic (22) 10.5 __ Dr(S)No (25), Dancerwithwings (29), The Pit (36) and consensus 10.4 __ weather26 (4), Doctor32 (49), CheesePuffScott (58) 10.3 __ BornFromTheVoid (45) 10.2 __ Radiating Dendrite (8), JeffC (27), damianslaw (39), weather-history (44) 10.1 __ IRememberAtlantic252 (2), ProlongedSnowLover (24), Don (48), Singularity (51) 10.0 __ Bobd29 (9), Leo97t (5), snowyowl9 (20), Feb1991blizzard (32), stewfox (L1d-1) 9.9 __ nn2013 (14), stargazer (33), Norrance (35), jonboy (L1d-4) 9.8 __ Kirkcaldy Weather (15), SteveB (6), Badgers01 (L1d-6) 9.7 __ Pegg24 (16) 9.6 __ Godber.1 (18) 9.5 __ sundog (23), Duncan McAlister (47) 9.4 __ Let It Snow! (28) 9.3 __ SnowDragon (38) 9.1 __ Summer of 95 (19) 8.9 __ Dami (12) 7.7 __ Diagonal Red Line (3) 5.3 __ __ __ coldest 1740 _____________________________ 58 forecasts (on time), six were one day late, and one each were two and three days late, total 66 forecasts consensus (median) is 10.45 C rounded to 10.5. =================================================================== EWP forecasts (mm) ... see table on page one of October thread for NCIC extremes ... Hadley extremes listed here 218.1 __ __ __ wettest 1903 200.0 __ Lettucing Gutted 121.3 __ Polar Gael 117.0 __ CheesePuffScott 115.0 __ BornFromTheVoid 111.0 __ SnowDragon 110.0 __ Bobd29 105.0 __ JeffC 100.8 __ average for 1981-2010 100.0 __ stewfox (+1d late) 99.0 __ EdStone, Relativistic, Norrance, J10 96.6 __ average for 1988-2017 95.0 __ davehsug 92.0 __ Dkeane3 90.0 __ nn2013 89.0 __ seaside60 (+1d late) 88.0 __ weather26 87.0 __ Stationary Front 86.0 __ virtualsphere 85.0 __ Dr(S)No, syed2878, Reef 84.0 __ Singularity __ __ consensus 80.0 __ Leo97t, Blast From The Past 78.0 __ Summer of 95 76.0 __ vizzy2004 75.0 __ Midlands Ice Age, DAVID SNOW (+1d late) 70.0 __ Pegg24, Feb1991blizzard, The Pit, Mulzy 69.6 __ Kirkcaldy Weather 68.0 __ TJM14, Don 65.0 __ weather-history, jonboy (+1d late) 64.0 __ SteveB 63.0 __ Radiating Dendrite 55.0 __ Dami, Godber.1, Roger J Smith, Doctor32 53.0 __ Stargazer _8.8 __ __ __ driest 1781 ____________________________ 41 on time entries, 4 more were one day late, 45 in total. consensus (median, 23rd ranked) 84 mm.

Cold wet morning (max 7C) then a marked clearance in the early afternoon leaving a mixture of sunshine and cloud. Temperature markedly higher in the afternoon, up to a max of 14C (even now still 10.5C). The higher temperatures have set off an explosion of small midgies, thousands of them flying around just before sunset. Didn't hang around to find out if they were the blood-thirsty variety

You bought the Express ? I’m amazed the Mods are still allowing you on here

the model Christmas village was looking pretty cute the other day...

Not much happening this evening and overnight with the main low over Iceland the UK resides in the broad warm sector thus a mainly cloudy and mild night with perhaps some breaks in eastern regions. But with a couple of fronts in close proximity some bits and bobs of rain, mainly in the north west but also down western regions further south. And breezier the further north you trek from the Midlands.

Cracking day. A bit of mist around this morning, as the sun came up. And here are some sheep that I found on the way to the brewery on Friday.

Banff again, 30cm overnight

Indeed. Look at the state of that!!

11.4 to the 2nd 0.8 below the 61 to 90 average 1.2 below the 81 to 10 average  __________________________________ Current low this month 9.8 to the 1st Current high this month 11.4 to the 2nd

Depends where you are in southern UK as here in South Wales, my weather station recorded 130.7mm in just a few days from the 3 'named storms' 2 weeks ago and also 75.8mm fell in just one day in the middle of August, so recently it's been a case of 'plenty of dry weather but when it rains, it rains'

Think a very mild month 13.0C thanks. Sorry for being late.

Snow smell is real thanks !! Don’t take that away from me

Cooler nights have really brought the colours out in the front and back garden ...

ECM clusters this morning showing a deep Atlantic trough parked out to the west of the UK, NW/SE split, though it could be fairly mild to warm with a southerly feed: By day 12 there is a split of outcomes, though still favouring the SE for the best of conditions: At day 15 the ridge is in the largest cluster, though by no means conclusive: The GFS ensembles also look fairly dry for the majority out to day 10, with the pressure mean reasonable too. Parts of the SE seeing little or no rainfall. Only the NW of Scotland really taking a bit hit closer to those lows and the track of the jetstream.

Unless it's yellow snow

i have to say that the cfs unreliable as it is is utter weather porn... the -16 uppers touching the kent coast........ aaaahhhhhhhhhhh

Hoping for a couple of decent falls before Christmas just like Dec 10th last year. Then for a snowy January, last winter made me nostalgic with icicles hanging of cars and roofs mid afternoon. Childhood memories. A repeat would be fantastic.

Turned cool and wet this afternoon, felt very autumnal. Temperature peaked at 11c earlier in the day. Managed to fit in a great walk up Buachaille Etive Beag on Friday, along with a couple of pints in the Clachaig

Nice to see early winter pictures from Spitzbergen with freezing temps and snow cover taking a hold. C

glorious morning across Esher Common !! autumn is well and truly in full swing ..