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Showing content with the highest reputation on 03/10/18 in all areas

  1. Using the 500 mb anomaly charts, the 3 I use, are all in close agreement, it would suggest a NW-SE split with the most disturbed weather the further north and west one live. Less so for the SE corner but even here the upper air pattern suggests rain and wind here now and then. My notes this morning Ec-gfs show ridging e/ne with major trough around 30 w; Noaa is also similar perhaps 25 w for trough So all 3 now appear settled on this, the flow is strong away from se across atlantic , with the flow looking like right entrance, close to us- and left exit close to nw uk, some deep
    8 points
  2. It's now looking increasingly likely that towards the weekend after next unseasonal warmth will be the order of the day, this possibility evident from the models for some time now. First GFS T240: GEM take interesting with this 16C uppers over Shetland: Here's the FV3 at T240: that heat's gone a bit north no? ECM at same time: And apropos of nothing, today the CFS offers this at T1794: Happy days ? all round.
    4 points
  3. Assuming winter CET is distributed normally (it's not) then the coldest winter 1684 with a standard deviation of over 3.5 has a less than 1 in 2149 chance of occurring. The 3rd coldest 1962/3 is 3SD which has a chance of 1 in 370.
    4 points
  4. Short/medium term diagnostics. Although 'no notable' large scale differences.... The eye openers are there 'early on'.. A last gasp of early autumnal warmth aiding in the forward frontal onset of winter...perhaps?!.. A notable large lobe vortex push to an easterly caption!.. And although even @10hpa strat there is nothing of significance...at this point the overal conscientious is there!!.. Also the aiming/conversition of mid'-latt blocking steps are falling on exactions. An alarming-punch of large mass waa keen for punch @mainland/mass eastern quad euro...
    4 points
  5. The overriding theme of a N/S split across the UK within the current pattern continues, albeit with a brief interruption this weekend.. Worth noting at the end of the short range is the displacement of the Canadian vortex into the north west Atlantic as illustrated by last evening’s EPS. Back to the here and now and the 500mb and surface analysis at midnight So following on from a post last evening the developing low to the west will continue to deepen and track NNE pushing the associated warm front north east across the north of the UK. The rain from this, currently down
    4 points
  6. On the phone so can't dig them out right now but will post some later - I become a snow webcam fanatic in the winter! In the meantime, the Garsons Farm Christmas display is shaping up nicely?
    3 points
  7. He's certainly going through a rough patch the last 24 hours ?
    3 points
  8. 3 points
  9. Monthly Figures - Summary and Top 10 No players got it spot on, with 5 players 0.1c out. Kirkcaldy Weather, coldest winter, daniel, weather-history and ProlongedSnowLover. The top 10 precisely as shown by Roger above. Seasonal - Summary and Top 10. Very much in the same order as the monthly figures above. Overall - Summary and Top 10. No change in the Top 3. 1st Man with Beard 2nd Don 3rd Norrance Elsewhere in the Top 10 Godber_1 up 4th places to 4th. mulzy up 11 places to 6th. Sept 2018 CET.xlsx
    3 points
  10. Talk of warm settled weather on here .... but surely not.... my copy of the Express tells me that Britain is going to endure 14 days of Ferocious Weather thanks to a powerful cyclone called Leslie thats hurtling across the Atlantic... Any guesses as to what’s wrong here ???️
    3 points
  11. Meteociel doesn't forecasting anything, it just presents the output from various NWP models. The link is just showing the output from the latest GFS run which is operated by NCEP in the US. 6/4 for the coldest winter on record is ludicrously short. 500 to 1 would be closer. The whole article is a joke. If El Nino caused cold winters in the UK, we'd be buried every few years.
    3 points
  12. Massive westerly wind burst occuring over the central and east pacific over the next week (one of the strongest on record i imagine). I would look to significant ridging to the north and east developing in the final half of October.
    2 points
  13. He's just expressing his opinion? Moving swiftly on..it looks like NW Britain will bear the brunt of the unsettled atlantic weather with the SE least affected.
    2 points
  14. Lettuce Pray he does well in the future
    2 points
  15. The vortex/trough exiting N. Canada en route the Denmark straits and the front with tenuous connections to Leslie approaching the UK
    2 points
  16. Seems to me a recurring theme in the GFS is to try and get low pressure systems to sweep in, but because of the block in place to the east they slide up to the west of us introducing some very warm weather for the time of year. Sucking up the warmer air to the south Was it Halloween 2015 that was crazy warm day and night temperatures? I'm not sure what year it was.. 15c uppers getting in on this run... One thing we do need more of down south is rain.. And it's looking more and more slim chance in the next week or so Apart from Saturday afternoon /evening brief affair
    2 points
  17. What a fantastic performance from "our boys". A very disappointing one, from the U.S.A!! They seemed a very disparate, indeed desperate bunch, at times!! Would suggest that Rickie Fowler and Bubba Watson, should perform their very amusing "rap parody", that they recorded with fellow Tour Pro's, Ben Crane and Hunter Mahan, to cheer up their U.S. team mates. See video, below: A few Ladies from the European Tour, responded in like. See video, below: Think Europe win again, what say you? Really not sure about Bubba, in that "get-up!!" That was my first atte
    2 points
  18. I think a word of thanks is once again due in here k. To anyone new to meteorology I would recommend that you read this part of Net Weather. The mix of charts, Fax, rainfall, temperature etc with hardly any personal bias and interpretation is a model (excuse the pun). Maybe the team could make some suggestion in the main thread for new folk to make their way on to this thread. I do so hope that once winter starts that this thread is kept free of the unpleasantness that does occur at times when some folk get frustrated with not getting the weather they hoped for and maybe they felt th
    2 points
  19. Next week would feel more like summer if the Gfs 6z operational is right, a very warm long draw southerly airflow with temperatures into the low 20's celsius..really nice.??
    2 points
  20. Ok not ww2 but ww1. They shall not grow old by peter jackson. Looks amazing what they did with the old grainy black and white footage using the latest technology.
    2 points
  21. Table of entries for CET and EWP contests, October 2018 CET forecasts .. number in brackets shows the order of entry (only the last one counts in that regard) ... late entries are shown (L1d-nn) for one day late, order of entry, then L2d and L3d for one each two and three days late. 15.5 __ Lettucing Gutted (10) 13.3 __ __ __ warmest 2001 13.0 __ Blue_Skies_do_I_see (37), Daniel* (L2d) 12.5 __ syed2878 (40) 12.4 __ TJM14 (13) 12.1 __ Roger J Smith (31), Kentish Man (43) 11.8 __ Froze were the days (L1d-3), coldest winter (L3d) 11.6 __ da
    1 point
  22. Cold wet morning (max 7C) then a marked clearance in the early afternoon leaving a mixture of sunshine and cloud. Temperature markedly higher in the afternoon, up to a max of 14C (even now still 10.5C). The higher temperatures have set off an explosion of small midgies, thousands of them flying around just before sunset. Didn't hang around to find out if they were the blood-thirsty variety
    1 point
  23. What was Lloris doing??!! Has he been on the lash again?!
    1 point
  24. ???? https://twitter.com/AstonCabbage
    1 point
  25. Dean Smith would be good for them plays good attacking football, so hopefully Villa will get Allardyce ?
    1 point
  26. the model Christmas village was looking pretty cute the other day...
    1 point
  27. 1 point
  28. Not much happening this evening and overnight with the main low over Iceland the UK resides in the broad warm sector thus a mainly cloudy and mild night with perhaps some breaks in eastern regions. But with a couple of fronts in close proximity some bits and bobs of rain, mainly in the north west but also down western regions further south. And breezier the further north you trek from the Midlands.
    1 point
  29. Cracking day. A bit of mist around this morning, as the sun came up. And here are some sheep that I found on the way to the brewery on Friday.
    1 point
  30. Oh! Mr. Porter. yeah yeah some of you will shout out Shite but it's classic, mild humour, and pleasing to watch. I grew up watching a lot of Will Hay. Surprised hubs when I downloaded it.
    1 point
  31. 11.4 to the 2nd 0.8 below the 61 to 90 average 1.2 below the 81 to 10 average  __________________________________ Current low this month 9.8 to the 1st Current high this month 11.4 to the 2nd
    1 point
  32. 1 point
  33. Think a very mild month 13.0C thanks. Sorry for being late.
    1 point
  34. Well what can I say, it's not often, I win one of my own Competitions!! Congratulations to J10 for being a gallant runner-up. Had I known J10 was a Golf fan, would have sent him an invite, into the other "Fantasy" Golf Competitions I've hosted, this season. I certainly will from now on. J10's entry was clear, concise and to the "tee". (Sorry, no pun intended but he had cottoned onto the fact, you needed to predict both morning Foursomes plus all the Singles matches.) A very solid performance from PHIL_NW and had he been able to post up his predictions for the first day Foursomes, may
    1 point
  35. Snow smell is real thanks !! Don’t take that away from me ?
    1 point
  36. Cooler nights have really brought the colours out in the front and back garden ...
    1 point
  37. My Dad told me to invest my money in bonds. So I bought 100 copies of Goldfinger
    1 point
  38. ECM clusters this morning showing a deep Atlantic trough parked out to the west of the UK, NW/SE split, though it could be fairly mild to warm with a southerly feed: By day 12 there is a split of outcomes, though still favouring the SE for the best of conditions: At day 15 the ridge is in the largest cluster, though by no means conclusive: The GFS ensembles also look fairly dry for the majority out to day 10, with the pressure mean reasonable too. Parts of the SE seeing little or no rainfall. Only the NW of Scotland really taking a bit hit closer to those lows and the track of t
    1 point
  39. i have to say that the cfs unreliable as it is is utter weather porn... the -16 uppers touching the kent coast........ aaaahhhhhhhhhhh
    1 point
  40. Hoping for a couple of decent falls before Christmas just like Dec 10th last year. Then for a snowy January, last winter made me nostalgic with icicles hanging of cars and roofs mid afternoon. Childhood memories. A repeat would be fantastic.
    1 point
  41. Nice to see early winter pictures from Spitzbergen with freezing temps and snow cover taking a hold. C
    1 point
  42. glorious morning across Esher Common !! autumn is well and truly in full swing ..
    1 point
  43. lol i'm expecting the moon to s hat out a huge filament in November which will ruin poor Corbyn's winter forecast for the 6th year running?
    1 point
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