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Showing content with the highest reputation on 03/10/18 in all areas

  1. 8 points
    Using the 500 mb anomaly charts, the 3 I use, are all in close agreement, it would suggest a NW-SE split with the most disturbed weather the further north and west one live. Less so for the SE corner but even here the upper air pattern suggests rain and wind here now and then. My notes this morning Ec-gfs show ridging e/ne with major trough around 30 w; Noaa is also similar perhaps 25 w for trough So all 3 now appear settled on this, the flow is strong away from se across atlantic , with the flow looking like right entrance, close to us- and left exit close to nw uk, some deep surface depressions seem likely in the 6-10, extending into the 8-14 as that shows a similar idea. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html
  2. 4 points
    The overriding theme of a N/S split across the UK within the current pattern continues, albeit with a brief interruption this weekend.. Worth noting at the end of the short range is the displacement of the Canadian vortex into the north west Atlantic as illustrated by last evening’s EPS. Back to the here and now and the 500mb and surface analysis at midnight So following on from a post last evening the developing low to the west will continue to deepen and track NNE pushing the associated warm front north east across the north of the UK. The rain from this, currently down western Scotland, will do the same. So wet and quite windy here after a cool and clear start in the east, but the further south is in the warm sectors so fairly cloudy with perhaps some patchy drizzle early on in the west but where the cloud breaks it will be quite warm The passage of the warm front will result in a fairly cloudy and mild night in most areas although the cloud could well break further south and here Thursday will develop into a warm day with light winds. But the aforementioned low is still deepening over Iceland and the waving cold front is in close proximity to Scotland so again it will be wet and windy here and as the front tracks south east the rain and freshening wind will do the same during the day The front will continue to edge south overnight and through Friday as the low to the north continues on it's travel, with patchy rain accompanying it, leaving clearer showery conditions in it's wake. Quite a marked temp contrast either side of the front with temps above average in the south. By Saturday the brief hiatus mentioned at the beginning is underway with an upper trough sinking south and a wave forming on the front which tracks into Biscay bringing some wet and windy weather to Wales and the south of England. And there is some quite cold air behind the front as the ridge builds in from the south west. The rain will clear the south overnight and after a cold start with a frost in many places Sunday will be a sunny and cool day but by late afternoon the next frontal system will bring freshening winds and some rain to the north west. And the NH profile at T120 keeping in mind the opening comment.
  3. 3 points
  4. 3 points
    Monthly Figures - Summary and Top 10 No players got it spot on, with 5 players 0.1c out. Kirkcaldy Weather, coldest winter, daniel, weather-history and ProlongedSnowLover. The top 10 precisely as shown by Roger above. Seasonal - Summary and Top 10. Very much in the same order as the monthly figures above. Overall - Summary and Top 10. No change in the Top 3. 1st Man with Beard 2nd Don 3rd Norrance Elsewhere in the Top 10 Godber_1 up 4th places to 4th. mulzy up 11 places to 6th. Sept 2018 CET.xlsx
  5. 3 points
    Talk of warm settled weather on here .... but surely not.... my copy of the Express tells me that Britain is going to endure 14 days of Ferocious Weather thanks to a powerful cyclone called Leslie thats hurtling across the Atlantic... Any guesses as to what’s wrong here ?
  6. 3 points
    Meteociel doesn't forecasting anything, it just presents the output from various NWP models. The link is just showing the output from the latest GFS run which is operated by NCEP in the US. 6/4 for the coldest winter on record is ludicrously short. 500 to 1 would be closer. The whole article is a joke. If El Nino caused cold winters in the UK, we'd be buried every few years.
  7. 2 points
    Seems to me a recurring theme in the GFS is to try and get low pressure systems to sweep in, but because of the block in place to the east they slide up to the west of us introducing some very warm weather for the time of year. Sucking up the warmer air to the south Was it Halloween 2015 that was crazy warm day and night temperatures? I'm not sure what year it was.. 15c uppers getting in on this run... One thing we do need more of down south is rain.. And it's looking more and more slim chance in the next week or so Apart from Saturday afternoon /evening brief affair
  8. 2 points
    What a fantastic performance from "our boys". A very disappointing one, from the U.S.A!! They seemed a very disparate, indeed desperate bunch, at times!! Would suggest that Rickie Fowler and Bubba Watson, should perform their very amusing "rap parody", that they recorded with fellow Tour Pro's, Ben Crane and Hunter Mahan, to cheer up their U.S. team mates. See video, below: A few Ladies from the European Tour, responded in like. See video, below: Think Europe win again, what say you? Really not sure about Bubba, in that "get-up!!" That was my first attempt at "hosting" a Matchplay event. As I stated at the start of the thread, was concerned about the quick turnaround in matches after the Morning Sessions, which prevented me including the predicting of the Afternoon Fourballs, in the Competition. I think it worked really well, on the whole and I really enjoyed, hosting it. I hope you all enjoyed, entering!! If there's enough interest, would like to "host" a "Fantasy" Competition on the World Cup of Golf, which will be held at the Metropolitan Golf Club, Melbourne, Australia, 22nd-25th November. I can virtually host it, while I'm on my virtual trip!! Please let me know if you're interested, in entering. Anyway, onwards and upwards!! Off to continue the Champions League Competition and Autumn "Fantasy" Racing. Regards. Tom.
  9. 2 points
    I think a word of thanks is once again due in here k. To anyone new to meteorology I would recommend that you read this part of Net Weather. The mix of charts, Fax, rainfall, temperature etc with hardly any personal bias and interpretation is a model (excuse the pun). Maybe the team could make some suggestion in the main thread for new folk to make their way on to this thread. I do so hope that once winter starts that this thread is kept free of the unpleasantness that does occur at times when some folk get frustrated with not getting the weather they hoped for and maybe they felt the models were showing.
  10. 2 points
    Next week would feel more like summer if the Gfs 6z operational is right, a very warm long draw southerly airflow with temperatures into the low 20's celsius..really nice.
  11. 1 point
    Hi Folks Lets Start This Roller Coaster Ride For Winter 2018 2019. Take A Look At Gavs Weather Vids For Some Of The Excelent Winter 18-19 Updates His been doing From September. Here's To A Snowy winter18-19 To All. https://www.gavsweathervids.com/
  12. 1 point
  13. 1 point
  14. 1 point
    Think a very mild month 13.0C thanks. Sorry for being late.
  15. 1 point
    Well what can I say, it's not often, I win one of my own Competitions!! Congratulations to J10 for being a gallant runner-up. Had I known J10 was a Golf fan, would have sent him an invite, into the other "Fantasy" Golf Competitions I've hosted, this season. I certainly will from now on. J10's entry was clear, concise and to the "tee". (Sorry, no pun intended but he had cottoned onto the fact, you needed to predict both morning Foursomes plus all the Singles matches.) A very solid performance from PHIL_NW and had he been able to post up his predictions for the first day Foursomes, may well have pinches 2nd place, from J10. To those entrants, that finished at the bottom of the table, it's important to make sure you read the Format and fully understand, all the elements of the Competition. Fortunately, no entry fees were paid and no prize money, was at stake!! In a short while, I'll post up more details of possible "Fantasy" Golf Competitions, I'd like to "host". A big thanks to everyone, for participating!! Regards, Tom.
  16. 1 point
    Snow smell is real thanks !! Don’t take that away from me
  17. 1 point
    Cooler nights have really brought the colours out in the front and back garden ...
  18. 1 point
    My Dad told me to invest my money in bonds. So I bought 100 copies of Goldfinger
  19. 1 point
    ECM clusters this morning showing a deep Atlantic trough parked out to the west of the UK, NW/SE split, though it could be fairly mild to warm with a southerly feed: By day 12 there is a split of outcomes, though still favouring the SE for the best of conditions: At day 15 the ridge is in the largest cluster, though by no means conclusive: The GFS ensembles also look fairly dry for the majority out to day 10, with the pressure mean reasonable too. Parts of the SE seeing little or no rainfall. Only the NW of Scotland really taking a bit hit closer to those lows and the track of the jetstream.
  20. 1 point
  21. 1 point
    i have to say that the cfs unreliable as it is is utter weather porn... the -16 uppers touching the kent coast........ aaaahhhhhhhhhhh
  22. 1 point
    Hoping for a couple of decent falls before Christmas just like Dec 10th last year. Then for a snowy January, last winter made me nostalgic with icicles hanging of cars and roofs mid afternoon. Childhood memories. A repeat would be fantastic.
  23. 1 point
    Nice to see early winter pictures from Spitzbergen with freezing temps and snow cover taking a hold. C
  24. 1 point
    glorious morning across Esher Common !! autumn is well and truly in full swing ..
  25. 1 point
    lol i'm expecting the moon to s hat out a huge filament in November which will ruin poor Corbyn's winter forecast for the 6th year running
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