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Showing most liked content on 01/10/18 in all areas

  1. 10 likes
    Morning all, had an interest chat this morning with our portal forecaster about the possible deep cyclone that could develop next weekend in the vicinity of Southern Britain. Feeling are that the situation becomes quite fluid in 5 days time as the Eastern Atlantic trough moves into NW Europe. A baroclinic zone becomes established towards the North Sea, not surprising really when you see the 144t 850mb forecast temperature chart below. Very cold air getting established to the North and meeting pulses of warm air moving poleward through Eastern Europe, hence the North Sea could see fairly rapid cyclonic development. However, at this stage the positioning , deepening and potential cut off low formation is still showing a degree of uncertainty but defo one to watch. Their own model tends to show a bit more of a southward positioning and could change very quickly over the coming days. We have a snow alert for tonight, not a lot but fine mesh model predicting 5 cm in the village as the freezing level gets down to 1750m tomorrow morning.
  2. 9 likes
    Indeed Frosty whilst I understand some enthusiasm from those looking at blocked Winter CFS charts that is a nice October set up for an Indian Summer. The real indication for vortex development will come towards December when zonal winds tend to really increase. I am quite happy to see that continental high wafting warm southerlies over us for another month until we have a better chance of Winter weather.
  3. 8 likes
    Not too much to add this morning. Therefore, just a little focus on the possible storm this weekend. The 00Z GFS (both 135 hour and 144 hour charts used): 00Z ECMWF at 144 hours: 00Z UKMO at 144 hours: GEM at 144 hours: 00Z ICON (like GFS, both 135 hour and 144 hour charts used): 00Z NAVGEM at 144 hours: You can see they all show variations of a similar theme. It looks quite likely a Low Pressure system will affect the UK this weekend with some rain and showers. But it’s only really the GFS and the NAVGEM which shows the Low being a bad boy (stormy). The GFS has it affecting a wider area of the UK, particularly Eastern parts, where there could be some vicious gusts towards the East coast. The NAVGEM, on the other hand, has the Low taking a beating over Northern U.K. Most other models keep the Low Pressure system as a shallower affair and generally towards the Southern portion of the UK. Particularly the UKMO! The ICON, though, when you look at its 135 hours chart, is somewhere in between with the isobars of the Low tightly packed towards the Southern part of the little cyclone, so maybe some strong gusts towards the South coast on that chart. Just an example, these are what the wind speed gusts are like on the 00Z GFS during Saturday: Could be some angry gusts down Eastern parts with high tides, so would think carefully about taking the deck chairs with you to the beach! 🏖 (not to mention the fact it could be chilly in those Northerly winds on the GFS). Obviously I imagine things will keep changing from run to run regarding the Lows track and intensity. And knowing how models like the GFS handled that pervious storm over the weekend, would be cautious of its outlook for now. Personally expect the Low to not be that moody at all with a shallower feature more likely. It may even be possible that the Low may not affect the U.K. at all and track well to our South. Still wouldn’t ignore the grumpy Low... just incase!
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    Last week’s weather in Colonsay was very disappointing with non-stop wind and frequent horizontal rain only interspersed occasionally by brief, very brief, sunny intervals. The temp remained an almost constant 11-12C. Consequently, many of the places of interest (most on Colonsay require a bit of a trek) were not visited. The neighbours:- By contrast, this morning back on the mainland, it was still and cold at 7C but not unpleasant. Loch Feoch Passed two gritting trucks at Crieff this afternoon. One had a shiny spruced up snow-plough attached.
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    Pure perfection for October - lets' hope it verifies Frosty! This evening's ECM not quite as good sadly...
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    Looks like the final value is 13.7C https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_2018 A downward correction of 0.16C, from 13.88C to 13.72C.
  9. 3 likes
    The pattern is still favouring a NW/SE divide but of course this does not rule out frontal incursions further south and one such is indicated on the 500mb and surface analysis at midnight. A fairly clear and cool start to the day, the odd shower still around the Norfolk area, and it will stay sunny in many areas with perhaps some cloud popping up in the west. But the low east of Greenland is tracking east and the associated fronts will bring cloud and rain into the western Isles by mid morning. The upper cloud already showing on the midnight sounding at Valentia. The fronts and rain will sweep south east during the day and evening, the rain tending to be less intense as it goes, reaching the south coast by late evening Behind the fronts showers and sunny intervals The low continues east to be north of Scotland on Tuesday thus the northern half of the UK in a strong showery north westerly whilst the south languishes in the warm sector with cloud and patchy drizzle and thus also a quite marked temp difference. Meanwhile a wave is forming on the cold front which trails way back into the Atlantic and this tracks north east through Wednesday to be south of Iceland by midday. This forces the front across Britain and Ireland, albeit it is very weak in the south where the ridge is influential, thus any patchy rain confined to the north. Warming up a tad with the temps a little above average. By Thursday the low has deepened to 981mn west of southern Norway with the cold front across central Scotland which means windy and showery in the north and much cooler than the south where there are light winds with temps above average. A very marked temp differential. By Friday the front has slipped further south so a generally cool day apart from the far south but complications are arising to the west. An upper trough is tracking east and another wave is forming on the front which still trails all the way back to TS Leslie. How this develops is interesting but outside the remit of this thread. And the NH profile at T120
  10. 3 likes
    go and watch Gav's weather on youtube he has just posted a whole video looking at past solar minimum winters plus all the analogues for the winters just before and at true solar minimum
  11. 3 likes
    The Gfs 12z operational turns on the heat pump or at least the warmth pump in the run up to mid october with air sourced from way south..a recurring theme with strong height rises to the east and stalling atlantic lows...there could be more very warm weather for the time of year on the way.
  12. 2 likes
    Would be threatening some records if the flow from the south isn't too slack. We've seen three days of this type of chart all over the extended ensembles. Can they hold out, unlike last month?
  13. 2 likes
    Don't even go there, we'll end up with a thread about toilets lol, the daily bowel movement discussion
  14. 2 likes
    Hi Malcolm, I can see why some might be a little confused by the ambiguity in the term "current", but I posted more to dispel the idea that it was an attempt to generate a sensational headline or that it was in any way a form of spin. Misunderstandings are only human but, as I'm sure you've noticed, lately in general science or political discussion, but especially in climate science, there's a tendency for a certain side of the debate to link everything to ploys, conspiracy theories and "fake news". The Arctic ocean and peripheral seas make up the measurements of Northern Hemisphere sea ice, which is often just called Arctic sea ice. The map below shows roughly where the different regions are, though there will be slight variations depending on who's doing the measurements.
  15. 2 likes
    My husband has been sent back up to Aberdeen and I was swiftly told to “stop complaining about the cold, you should go to Aberdeen then your know what the cold is like” he has a way with words my husband. I have to say that yesterday all day And again today I’ve been cold all day, had a hot water bottle in bed last night. I’m like an old lady it’s been a dreary day with nothing much to report. There has been lots of cloud about. Tonight moon is beautiful though.
  16. 2 likes
    Of course. I'm not saying there's no impact, I'm just not convinced it will have a massive impact unless the expected period of low solar output is protracted and deep. I do think the expectation that if it happens we'll have bitingly cold winters needs to be re-considered. Having looked at the historical weather, it shows that peculiar weather patterns happened, very wet weather was as common, if not more common than cold. Not sure that fills me with much joy.
  17. 2 likes
    It won't be long now! And to wet our appetites for the upcoming winter a great photo of the first snowfall at Moraine Lake, Banff, on 14th Sept. https://twitter.com/attila_thefun/status/1040740567670353920
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    At 13.7c, September 2018 shares the same mean monthly CET with September's: 2013, 1995, 1984, 1983, 1831, 1827, 1824 and 1811.
  21. 1 like
    This evening's gfs has the cyclogenesis a tad further south on saturday with srong ridging behind but the next major trough is about to be driven east with the ubiquitous Leslie waiting in the wings
  22. 1 like
    You've lost me? What are you going on about now?
  23. 1 like
    Personally I love cold & snowy Hate extreme heat & humid love a good wind & rain storm love warm & Sunny as long as it’s not too hot. Grey & cloudy if that annoys anyone then tough.
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    Thank you @Blessed Weather for the heads-up that the Alps are getting a bit of a covering. I last posted an image of snow in Les Arcs on 13 May; this morning the webcams are showing snow falling (yippee) but nothing on the ground yet (ah well). It's on again:)
  25. 1 like
    I notice September 2018 had 4 days with CET daily means <10C I think you have to go back to 1986 for a September that had more.
  26. 1 like
    Hello I thought I should introduce myself. I am Steve Hopley and mainly write weather forecasts for the Cannock Chase, Trent Valley and surrounding area. I have a Facebook account Cannock Chase Weather, Twitter cannockchasewx and my own webpage ...www.cannockchaseweather.co.uk . I also write weather reports for the local radio station Cannock Chase Radio. I upgraded my weather station from the Davis Vue to Davis vantage Pro 2 with WiFidata logger. Looking forward to reading your ideas for this area.
  27. 1 like
    Another chilly/frosty night last night. Quite a few we've had recently
  28. 1 like
    When I was small we always sat at the table for dinner. 6pm every day apart from sundays at 1pm. Hubs has a gorgeous dinner table that sat in his old house, but we use it for days such as Christmas and new years. We have trays to watch masterchef while we eat in the front room. However we mainly use trays because the table is normally full of school art stuff/ christmas stuff/pet stuff/ stuff. But once cleared hubs likes us to sit round it.
  29. 1 like
    We have had some glorious weather the past week! It does look like an increasing chance of something a little more mobile coming into the mix I love this still calm weather though.. Fantastic start to autumn
  30. 1 like
    Sky own At the Races together with Arena racing. Arena own around 20 Brit racecourses. At the mo At the Races shows some of the French racing so not sure it's that big a deal. But.... It's been rumoured in racing circles that Sky want to 'big up' their UK horse racing coverage. At the mo Racing UK are main racing channel with At the Races picking up the scraps. Sky will prob rebrand At the Races to Sky Horse Racing in 2019 and are rumoured to be coveting ITV's current coverage and contract. I expect Sky to make a big play for ITV's contract when it is up for renewal.
  31. 1 like
    lol yes it's possessed and has become self aware.
  32. 1 like
    Cold and dull all day with rain when I woke around 8am. Managed around 13C max, currently 9.3C. Been more than a little off-colour so didn't make the journey to the leisure centre but started adding to my heating bill with my living room temp. set for 22C.
  33. 1 like
    I suspect this is true. For me the changes in arctic sea ice, and energy that is now stored at high latitudes for much longer than used to be the case with knock on effects on polar pressure patterns, makes the past truly a thing of the past. We can still read the spikes in pacific driven AAM and predict when we will see a more buckled jet and consequent height rises, but how this interacts with polar air masses to the far north is now a new game altogether. Anything much before 2005 is working from a different background state, and analogues are going to be off. Curiously I wonder if the strat vortex is likely to be perturbed more often in the new state of the world. We are seeing some very persistent blocks these days, and it might be that, while the world warms, our extremes of winter weather increase. Since 2009 we have had a series of quite extreme weather phases through winter, and some stratospheric events that have created significant impacts. March 2018 was extraordinary...but my gut is telling me that we might well have seen a fair few "extraordinary" events in our winter timeline by the time we reach 2030.
  34. 1 like
    Yep , day slid of a cliff by lunchtime ,another Diane f××k up this weekend
  35. 1 like
    Quiet today! Feature worth mentioning re next weekend, GEM hits and GFS doesn't next Saturday: GEM hits and GFS doesn't. Moving on, heat pump on the GFS T300, Similar direction to the GEFS mean 6z at T240: Finally,it seems no post is complete without one for winter, here the CFS 18z at T2592 showing the first easterly of the season, I'd have hoped of one sooner! Hey ho!
  36. 1 like
    Shame with today late September has been glorious changing foliage never looked so good.
  37. 1 like
    Everyone is slowly coming back !!! They must be smelling SNOW
  38. 1 like
    Another lovely day, barely any wind and nearly clear skies.
  39. 1 like
    In spite of the dry summer garden has done very well,huge crop of plums,huge apples and even a few pears Veg are big too carrots parsnips beetroot cabbage sprouts runner beans and parsnips are all huge. Only the peas seemed to senace early in a drier patch. Perhaps its got something to do with all the farm dung I dig in. Cool dry day currently 8c
  40. 1 like
    Another lovely day after a cool start, very warm in the sunshine. Last of the house Martins have gone from the valley and the spiders are coming into the house. I used to call them Ethels, but I gather that over 70% of them that comes in are males, hmm ethelberts?
  41. 1 like
    Absolutely stunning day! Taking various dogs out for walks and bluest of blue skies, as a backdrop for the turning leaves and masses and masses of Rowan, holly and Hawthorn berries.
  42. 1 like
    Consider yourself lucky! No storms at all here this summer. A season to forget! Hopefully we will get thundersnow this December!
  43. 1 like
    I think it’ll pick up after dark in an hour or so. Just so I look a weirdo to my neighbours as I pop my head out the curtains looking like jack Nicholson from the shining.
  44. 1 like
    I'm losing the will to live. Once again, for those at the back. The main snow risk isn't until 4pm onwards. 4pm onwards. 4pm onwards. 4pm onwards. 4pm onwards. The coldest air isn't over us yet, once it reaches our shores and winds back ENE (from 4pm onwards) then showers/streamers will kick into action. Hope that clears things up a little.
  45. 1 like
    Whom are you actually referring to as “idiots” I believe we are all here to enjoy what snow maybe coming our way ?
  46. 1 like
    That spell brought the most snow I've ever seen by far and after asking an eldery neighbour, she told me the last time she had seen snow as bad as this was the Winter of 47.
  47. 1 like
    27th November -27th December 2010 CET: -1.5C The coldest 31 day CET period since early 1963 I reckon.
  48. 1 like
    There was a few inches on Blakey Ridge. Photos taken from the Lion Inn pub website. http://www.lionblakey.co.uk/photossnow.htm
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    Here's one from around Snowdonia from winter 2010. You could hear a pin drop with temp around -15c and no wind.
  50. 1 like
    Definitely the best winter I have lived to see, better than anything I remember from the 90s and 00s. Had best part of 2 weeks of snow on the ground and snow showers and streamers, days on end of ice and in the minus figures and nights below -10/15 which I'd never seen in the 15 years I'd lived in that house. Amazing, can only but dream to see something like that again in my lifetime. I've found a few photos of back then and the endless icicles that were hanging off the roofs, the snow streamer we had one night which had hours of lampost watching, and the amazing views that came with a true winter wonderland!
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