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Showing content with the highest reputation on 28/09/18 in all areas

  1. 12 points
    Nov - March - Blocking, cold to very cold and snow. I'll take that 😀
  2. 9 points
    This is the sort of pattern I envisage setting up and repeating all winter.
  3. 6 points
    Not much to add to previous comments. With the center of the high pressure remaining in the west the resultant ridge influencing the UK will always be under pressure from the energy exiting N. America driving systems around it and thus, as always in this situation, a tendency for a N/S split. Having said that there is nothing particularly alarming in the woodshed in the short range with positive anomalies in the Atlantic apart that is from some rather cool temps. .Last evening's EPS anomaly illustrates it pretty well. This morning sees the high pressure in charge as the very weak cold front continues to drift south, eventually into France. Thus still some cloud around in some central southern and eastern regions but this should clear fairly quickly giving a sunny day with light winds in all areas with perhaps the odd shower in the north of Scotland.where it will also be a tad breezier. But noticeable cooler than of late. The clear skies and light winds will continue this evening and overnight leading to quite a chilly start to Saturday with some widespread ground frost. It will continue to be sunny in England and Wales through Saturday bur a cold front associated with the low tracking NE to be west of Norway is approaching the north west and will bring rain and strengthening winds into western Scotland and N. Ireland by evening. The cold front will continue to track south east and weaken as it goes through Sunday but it will briefly introduce a cooler, showery, regime in it's wake as the surface wind veers to the NW/N South of the front it will be mainly sunny. Once the front is out of the way the ridge again reasserts itself leading a pretty sunny day on Monday, albeit not overly warm, but another low is tracking into the Iceland area and the associated fronts will bring rain and strengthening winds to N. Ireland and Scotland by evening. This shunts the colder air east but only of course to start the whole process over again. Actually this is not quite true as this low is driven on a more easterly track as the high cell is nudged a tad further south and thus pretty windy over the north on Tuesday and showers generally as the frontal system is driven south east during the day. And the NH profile at T120
  4. 4 points
    I posted this in the model tweets thread seven minutes before you posted it in here ha ha of which i thought was more appropiate but i guess it isn't a bad idea to post it in here so that a lot more people know about it,as if we haven't got enough models to look at esp the gfs and gfs parallele four times a day,i suppose the more data the better but i hope it goes out to t240 just like the 0z/12z as for the models,there is a lot of chopping and changing going on prob due to four storms/hurricaines around the globe at the moment throwing uncertainties into the mix in western and eastern Pacific the Alantic and in the Med(black cirlcles) plus also that huge +ve heights over Alaska and into the pole(red circle) gfs 12z t06hrs for example until things settle down it's going to be a topsy turvy ride on a final note:-
  5. 3 points
    If we were further into the late autumn/early winter season the current synoptic set-up might be raising a few eyebrows in here! The World Climate Service reporting a record breaking persistent block impacting Alaska: "The Sep 1-20 detrended 500mb height anomaly just south of the Bering Strait was the most positive 20-day standardized anomaly on record (1958-present) anywhere in the globe (+5.2 standard deviations, R1 data)." https://twitter.com/WorldClimateSvc/status/1045015726183133185 And with the block still in place 7 days on and cross Polar ridging, plus a GEFS forecast of negative 10hPa AO Index out to Oct 11th, the fledgling Strat Polar Vortex is (for now) not being allowed an easy start to the season. It will be interesting to see how the current coupled troposphere/stratosphere develops from here. Based on the latest GEFS forecast http://weatheriscool.com/ is reporting: "The strat. vortex is currently weaker than ERA interim average and is forecasted to remain weaker than average (according to EPS-mean) 0 of 21 members have stronger vortex than average at the last forecast step (2018-10-12 00:00:00)." Here's an illustration from the paper Blocking precursors to stratospheric sudden warming events that shows how a persistent block in the eastern Pacific/Alaska area can often (but not always) be a precursor to a Vortex splitting event. Full paper: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2009GL038776 But as @Interitus has shown above, all this not particularly indicative of how the SPV progresses from here. So best viewed as something to whet the appetite at this stage!!
  6. 2 points
    Hi Julian. This should help. Severe Weather EU's article about Medicanes. "Mediterranean tropical-like cyclones are interesting severe weather events, but nothing new and they have been observed in the past. Here is some of what we know about them." http://www.severe-weather.eu/theory/medicanes-mediterranean-tropical-like-cyclones-what-are-they/
  7. 2 points
    Cold late September 1919,air frost and snow.
  8. 2 points
    Its a time serious of tropical anomolies. The reds are in effect westerlies and blue easterlies. Where they sit can influence our weather down the line. You can see a diagonal red which shows a wave passing through the Pacific adding westerlies to the atmosphere and enhancing mid latitude blocking.
  9. 2 points
    I've got two, as my motorcycling days seem to be over. Heart failure means I don't have the stamina to pedal a standard bike. Both of mine are a bit naughty as both are "Power on Demand" with motorcycle-style twistgrip "throttles", with pedelecs the motor only runs as long as you are turning the pedals but a lot of e-bike riders have the same type as mine. Power is still limited to 250W and max. assisted speed 25km hr or 15.5mph, should you exceed that speed the motor shuts down. Decathlon do one for about £700, my Rich Bit cost £1300. The Rich Bit has 21 speed dérailleur gears so can be ridden as a conventional albeit heavy mountain bike. Alloy frame and magnesium wheels. The 36v LiIon battery is inside the frame, it's a folder so folding the frame gives access to the battery although charging is via a socket on the frame.
  10. 2 points
    There's some analogue evidence for short, deep minimums however 2008/2009 for example was an alternative anonomy (not the only one). I personally suspect this one will be another long one and near record breaking.
  11. 2 points
    Looks like extra runs from ECM are coming our way "Just heard word that ECMWF will soon be providing 6Z and 18Z cycles (in addition to the 0/12Z runs). This will be hourly data from 0 to 90 hours and 3-hourly data from 93 to 144 hours for 00/06/12/18Z runs. Good news to start the day!"
  12. 1 point
    if we slip into a weak - moderate el nino i would expect snow fall total not to be all that great..we will see
  13. 1 point
    Think youve used a years worth of laughing crying faces 🤣
  14. 1 point
  15. 1 point
    Very wet this morning after a mild drizzly night.Has cleared to a fine blue sky and light shower cloud .Much cooler though now . A photo of self seeded sunflower in strawberry patch.It only germianated in early August and is now flowering.
  16. 1 point
    The vortex strength at this time of the year is not particular indicative as to how it might progress. The chart below shows the correlation between the 10mb zonal wind and its strength at intervals between 7-42 days later. At this time of year (end of September / start of October) the predictability is at its lowest, only correlating a week in advance. At the end of October / start of November the zonal wind is fairly predictable a month and a half ahead as the vortex is properly formed at this point and is generally too early for major warmings in this period. After this, long term correlations fall as warmings affect the dataset, but short term the vortex increases in predictability for one and two weeks in advance and is fairly stable up to three weeks - the kind of timescales that warmings may take to materialise.
  17. 1 point
    Sea ice has jumped in the last couple of weeks across northern Canada and is above average for the date for the first time in a decade. The last time it was this icy for the time of year was 2004 and, before, that 1996. This year: https://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/CVCSWCTWA/20180924180000_CVCSWCTWA_0010248250.pdf https://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/CVCSWCTEA/20180924180000_CVCSWCTEA_0010248245.pdf And the last 4 decades at this at this date: https://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/CVCHDCTWA/20180924180000_CVCHDCTWA_0010248247.pdf https://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/CVCHDCTEA/20180924180000_CVCHDCTEA_0010248243.pdf It's tempting to say its just ice pack movements to that side from Russia but there has also been a trend of increasing ice in Hudson Bay, Eastern Canada and the Great Lakes in recent years as well, so it might not just be Canadian Arctic. Also, the Baltic Sea has seen ice moving back closer to average as well. Blips - or maybe late 70s hot dry summers and cold snowy winters making a come-back (depending where you live)?
  18. 1 point
  19. 1 point
    Blimey! https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/travel/destinations/manali-ladakh-route-cut-off-snowfall-in-rohtang-in-september-after-14-years/as65931709.cms https://twitter.com/ANI/status/1044464429121900546
  20. 1 point
  21. 1 point
    Further to a question about the Northwest Passage about a month ago from summer blizzard, I have more news. Although, I suspect most sailors would still describe the NWP as being closed all summer and the Canadian Coast Guard asked pleasure vessels to stay clear, it turns out two have gone through after difficulties. The THOR took about 26 days to get through a 200 mile ice blockage southwest of Bellot Straight during which it was trapped in a bay for several days on its westerly journey. http://arcticnorthwestpassage.blogspot.com/2018/09/sv-thor-de-arrives-tuktoyaktuk-from.html?view=sidebar The INFINITY took over 2 months to sail east through the NWP, a journey that would take 2 weeks when clear. It was held up considerably by ice blockages on the Alaskan Coast, Amundsen Gulf and also on the approach to Bellot Straight. http://arcticnorthwestpassage.blogspot.com/2018/09/sv-infinity-achieves-only-east-passage.html?view=sidebar If both these vessels got through without icebreaker assistance (as sometimes happens on the quiet), then they have been both tenacious and lucky. Vessels that aborted had difficulties with ice after turning around. At least one aborting vessel had to be helped out by an icebreaker to get back. ( I don't recall which.) http://arcticnorthwestpassage.blogspot.com/2018/09/sv-crystal-trapped-by-prince-regent.html?view=sidebar The ANAHITA was sunk this summer in the Bellot Straight in generally less concentrated ice conditions than the THOR dealth with. http://arcticnorthwestpassage.blogspot.com/2018/09/icebreaker-ccgs-henry-larsens.html?view=sidebar The solar-powered ICADE was unceremoniously dumped on an isolated beach by wind and swell, meaning the solo sailor was very lucky to meet a scientific ground party and not get eaten. http://arcticnorthwestpassage.blogspot.com/2018/09/mv-icade-unpredictability-of-northwest.html?view=sidebar The academic research icebreaker AKADEMIC IOFFE was forced by ice to detour and then grounded on an uncharted shoal, forcing evacuation of over 150 crew and passengers and emergency welding in frequently subzero conditions so it could turn back. I read somewhere that bilge pumping during repairs caused some environmental pollution, although it was said to be limited. http://arcticnorthwestpassage.blogspot.com/2018/08/akademik-ioffe-passengers-transferred.html?view=sidebar This is why I follow NWP sailing. It's dramatic and a bit mad. People take years to plan and don't want to give up after investing all that effort. Some give up when common sense would indicate. Others don't. Occasionally, some out and out nutcases with hardly any of the right experience have a go. They should be noting that some captains with decades of Arctic sailing experience still get into trouble. The Canadian Coast Guard have enough on worrying about supply ships and find the antics of pleasure vessels a bit frustrating at times, though don't criticise too much publicly, like most rescue services.
  22. 1 point
    Just got a birthday card, opened it and rice went everywhere. It was from Uncle Ben
  23. 1 point
    Windy here and cooler. Absolutely threw it down last night. While apprehensive somewhat with regard to the winds I love this weather cos it means fire on in evenings and a wave goodbye to such frequent salads and a big hello to comfort food....
  24. 1 point
    Strong sense of deja vu here as the POL was brought up in the discussion on the OPI back in 2014. At almost the same time the concept of the Taymyr Circulation Anomaly came to the fore in the paper October circulation precursors of the wintertime Arctic Oscillation (Kryjov 2014). This highlighted the correlation between Taymyr October geopotential anomalies and the following winter AO, but it seems the paper is still paywalled. At the time an arbitrary point was used to investigate this correlation (74.5°N 104°E) using 500hPa geopotential. However, the author co-wrote a follow-up paper Predictability of the wintertime Arctic Oscillation based on autumn circulation (Kryjov & Min 2016) which gives an insight to the earlier work and its application to forecasting (they use 700hPa geop. anom averaged and area weighted over 80-70°N 100-120°E). This paper is available - https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Vladimir_Kryjov/publication/292075140_Predictability_of_the_wintertime_Arctic_Oscillation_based_on_autumn_circulation/links/56c3f03708ae8a6fab5a3396/Predictability-of-the-wintertime-Arctic-Oscillation-based-on-autumn-circulation.pdf As illustrated in 2014, the homebrew Taymyr index proved superior to the POL in correlations with the AO, below are the correlations from 1950 up to last winter - Winter AO Dec AO Jan AO Feb AO Taymyr index 0.390 0.265 0.342 0.258 POL index 0.182 0.090 0.145 0.167 In particular it supports the link between October circulation and winter AO suggested by Kryjov. This doesn't tell the whole story however as shown in this chart of running 20-year correlations between the indices and winter AO. Also included are a Mongolian z500 anomaly (50°N 120°E) which has been used to create an estimated POL - The first few years are poor for all, this may be due to issues with data quality in the early reanalysis - the authors above use from 1958 onwards. After this though, the Taymyr index is better than the POL except for the 3 year period 2005-2007 (interestingly the artificial POL also beat the Taymyr), but more than this it proves to be relatively stable providing consistently good correlations over time. The same can't be said of the POL however which is poor in the early years even anticorrelated to winter AO and this is more strongly the case for the Mongolian anomaly - it would suggest that the value of the POL is given by the node in the area of the Taymyr circulation and it is dragged down by its dipole in Mongolia. In the second half of the period the Mongolian anomaly correlation improves which leads to better performance from the POL and there is also quite a marked sudden improvement for all including the Taymyr index. Couple of possibilities spring to mind - the timescales of Mongolian and POL correlations with winter AO are similar to the AMO. The 30 year correlation between the Mongolian anomaly and October AMO exceeds -0.7 when AMO leads by 29 years - but is >0.8 when AMO lags by 9 years (with over 0.95 for 10 year averaged AMO) - because of the timescales involved more data would be required to investigate this link further. The apparent sudden improvement in all indices may coincide with improved reanalysis with satellite data maybe. Finally with regards to changes since 2007, it is worth noting that all the correlations have fallen since the 2007-12 period.
  25. 1 point
    I have been browsing some old photos and came across this one from several years ago. Doggie sniffed out this little baby in a verge beside the garden. Fortunately she responded immediately to the command "don't touch" Mother and the youngster were seen together thereafter and throughout the season.
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