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Showing most liked content on 28/09/18 in all areas

  1. 12 likes
    Nov - March - Blocking, cold to very cold and snow. I'll take that
  2. 9 likes
    This is the sort of pattern I envisage setting up and repeating all winter.
  3. 6 likes
    More urgently Steve.... Get your phone charged
  4. 6 likes
    12z GFS moving to the UKMO evolution that its been touting for the last 36-48 hours Snow showers to lower levels in Northern Scotland & possibly Shetland...
  5. 6 likes
    Not much to add to previous comments. With the center of the high pressure remaining in the west the resultant ridge influencing the UK will always be under pressure from the energy exiting N. America driving systems around it and thus, as always in this situation, a tendency for a N/S split. Having said that there is nothing particularly alarming in the woodshed in the short range with positive anomalies in the Atlantic apart that is from some rather cool temps. .Last evening's EPS anomaly illustrates it pretty well. This morning sees the high pressure in charge as the very weak cold front continues to drift south, eventually into France. Thus still some cloud around in some central southern and eastern regions but this should clear fairly quickly giving a sunny day with light winds in all areas with perhaps the odd shower in the north of Scotland.where it will also be a tad breezier. But noticeable cooler than of late. The clear skies and light winds will continue this evening and overnight leading to quite a chilly start to Saturday with some widespread ground frost. It will continue to be sunny in England and Wales through Saturday bur a cold front associated with the low tracking NE to be west of Norway is approaching the north west and will bring rain and strengthening winds into western Scotland and N. Ireland by evening. The cold front will continue to track south east and weaken as it goes through Sunday but it will briefly introduce a cooler, showery, regime in it's wake as the surface wind veers to the NW/N South of the front it will be mainly sunny. Once the front is out of the way the ridge again reasserts itself leading a pretty sunny day on Monday, albeit not overly warm, but another low is tracking into the Iceland area and the associated fronts will bring rain and strengthening winds to N. Ireland and Scotland by evening. This shunts the colder air east but only of course to start the whole process over again. Actually this is not quite true as this low is driven on a more easterly track as the high cell is nudged a tad further south and thus pretty windy over the north on Tuesday and showers generally as the frontal system is driven south east during the day. And the NH profile at T120
  6. 4 likes
    I posted this in the model tweets thread seven minutes before you posted it in here ha ha of which i thought was more appropiate but i guess it isn't a bad idea to post it in here so that a lot more people know about it,as if we haven't got enough models to look at esp the gfs and gfs parallele four times a day,i suppose the more data the better but i hope it goes out to t240 just like the 0z/12z as for the models,there is a lot of chopping and changing going on prob due to four storms/hurricaines around the globe at the moment throwing uncertainties into the mix in western and eastern Pacific the Alantic and in the Med(black cirlcles) plus also that huge +ve heights over Alaska and into the pole(red circle) gfs 12z t06hrs for example until things settle down it's going to be a topsy turvy ride on a final note:-
  7. 3 likes
    There's going to be an ECM pub run?! Make it happen, @SylvainTV.
  8. 3 likes
    If we were further into the late autumn/early winter season the current synoptic set-up might be raising a few eyebrows in here! The World Climate Service reporting a record breaking persistent block impacting Alaska: "The Sep 1-20 detrended 500mb height anomaly just south of the Bering Strait was the most positive 20-day standardized anomaly on record (1958-present) anywhere in the globe (+5.2 standard deviations, R1 data)." https://twitter.com/WorldClimateSvc/status/1045015726183133185 And with the block still in place 7 days on and cross Polar ridging, plus a GEFS forecast of negative 10hPa AO Index out to Oct 11th, the fledgling Strat Polar Vortex is (for now) not being allowed an easy start to the season. It will be interesting to see how the current coupled troposphere/stratosphere develops from here. Based on the latest GEFS forecast http://weatheriscool.com/ is reporting: "The strat. vortex is currently weaker than ERA interim average and is forecasted to remain weaker than average (according to EPS-mean) 0 of 21 members have stronger vortex than average at the last forecast step (2018-10-12 00:00:00)." Here's an illustration from the paper Blocking precursors to stratospheric sudden warming events that shows how a persistent block in the eastern Pacific/Alaska area can often (but not always) be a precursor to a Vortex splitting event. Full paper: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2009GL038776 But as @Interitus has shown above, all this not particularly indicative of how the SPV progresses from here. So best viewed as something to whet the appetite at this stage!!
  9. 2 likes
    I have a similar problem with gin been known to end up in wrong bed with neighbours wife
  10. 2 likes
    Guess we will have to see .. ECM showing a colder northerly flow as we move towards the end of next week, i'd wager some ground frosts under clear skies, northern England northwards..
  11. 2 likes
    Long sunny periods today but only about 14C rather than 21C yesterday and the day feels cold. Suspect tonight will be even colder than recent nights, possibly even frosty? Currently clear and calm.
  12. 2 likes
    First notable frost of the season here too. Cars, grass and roofs all frozen. Disappeared quickly in the sun.
  13. 2 likes
    Another stunning morning here, going to feel decent enough today & tomorrow in the sunshine. Still enough strength in the sun to feel pleasant. No rain or bore fest low pressure in the next 7-10 days apart from a possible drop of rain Tuesday morning. Great weekend coming up for those of us that get out & about, making the most of it before the crap weather really sets in.
  14. 2 likes
    Morning All, well its the first cloudy morning for quite a while. still mild though. Weekend is looking nice for walking the dog :)
  15. 2 likes
    Just a focus on the nearer term output today. Some mostly settled weather in the next few days for places with further sunny spells in places continuing a similar theme earlier this week with High Pressure in control, especially so in the South. Towards the weekend, however, the models show Low Pressure to the North-West swinging South-Eastwards bringing wind and rain over Northern areas. But as the Low Pressure drops to the South-East, the models show the flow briefly turning to the North during Sunday with some showers likely for Northern and some Eastern areas. The flow looks as though it should be cold enough for the snow switch to get turned on over the Scottish mountains. But doesn’t look as though there’ll be too much of the white stuff. Mild to warm during the day times in the South, particularly in the sunnier periods, but generally a bit cooler in the North with temperatures more in the lower teens - perhaps into single digits in some places in the far North. But with the cooler flow from the North on Sunday and into Monday, then more places in the North could see temperatures more into the single digits. Daytime maximum temperatures: Nightime minimum temperatures: Sunday night and into Monday morning looks to be the coldest period in general with temperatures probably unlikely to get above freezing in some Northern spots. Especially during clearer skies. Could be quite frosty for some Northern parts that morning. Though nights in general look to be quite chilly in for all areas at times.
  16. 2 likes
    This weekend's Medicane is looking to have some severe impacts on Greece and Turkey. Here's some extracts from the update published late Thurs 27th Sept by Severe Weather EU: Rapid cyclogenesis is ongoing just off the Libyan coast this evening, central surface pressure is around 1004 mbar. The cyclone is expected to move due north and intensify over the Ionian sea tomorrow during the day before it turns east towards southern Greece and continues towards the Aegean sea and the western Turkey on Sunday. Saturday, 29th Sept 12 UTC – models mostly agree on the potential track of Medicane across the southern Greece, the centre / eye should eventually track between Peloponnese and Crete Island. The Medicane’s eyewall would in this case effect both landmasses pretty hard! Peak wind gusts could reach 120-150 km/h based on high resolution models. Sunday, 30th Sept 12 UTC – all models also push Medicane into the Aegean sea and then also into western Turkey. This would bring potentially devastating flash floods there as severe storms with torrential rainfall could produce huge amounts of rainfall across the steep slopes in mountainous terrain of the western Turkey. Models are also on track in hinting at a potentially extreme amount of rainfall. Southern Greece will get hit hard, regardless of the track. These are the latest model guidance updates from GFS, ARPEGE and ICON-EU models – 300-500 mm may well be possible in some areas and bring life-threatening flash floods. Source: Severe Weather EU: http://www.severe-weather.eu/mcd/update-medicane-forms-over-the-ionian-sea-tonight-expected-to-cross-greece-on-saturday-and-head-to-western-turkey-on-sunday/ IR satellite image Fri Sept 28th with the toe of Italy above (to the north) of the storm and Greece to the right: Animation of maximum wind gusts from GFS Greece Model for Fri 28th - Sun 30th: Charts courtesy of http://www.meteociel.fr/
  17. 2 likes
    We are set for some interesting times. http://spaceweather.com/ THE CHILL OF SOLAR MINIMUM: The sun is entering one of the deepest Solar Minima of the Space Age. Sunspots have been absent for most of 2018, and the sun's ultraviolet output has sharply dropped. New research shows that Earth's upper atmosphere is responding. "We see a cooling trend," says Martin Mlynczak of NASA's Langley Research Center. "High above Earth's surface near the edge of space, our atmosphere is losing heat energy. If current trends continue, the upper atmosphere could soon set a Space Age record for cold."
  18. 2 likes
    I've got two, as my motorcycling days seem to be over. Heart failure means I don't have the stamina to pedal a standard bike. Both of mine are a bit naughty as both are "Power on Demand" with motorcycle-style twistgrip "throttles", with pedelecs the motor only runs as long as you are turning the pedals but a lot of e-bike riders have the same type as mine. Power is still limited to 250W and max. assisted speed 25km hr or 15.5mph, should you exceed that speed the motor shuts down. Decathlon do one for about £700, my Rich Bit cost £1300. The Rich Bit has 21 speed dérailleur gears so can be ridden as a conventional albeit heavy mountain bike. Alloy frame and magnesium wheels. The 36v LiIon battery is inside the frame, it's a folder so folding the frame gives access to the battery although charging is via a socket on the frame.
  19. 2 likes
    There's some analogue evidence for short, deep minimums however 2008/2009 for example was an alternative anonomy (not the only one). I personally suspect this one will be another long one and near record breaking.
  20. 1 like
    Evening All - Its been a long long time since I opened a thread - So I will try to make it interesting... The first dip of the toe into Autumn is for many of us the change in mindset away from summer heat & into the ever shortening days & colder weather... Traditionally as we head through September & especially October the vortex & westerly jet increases to a point where the probability of southerly warmth is significantly reduced in probability- Notable dates in the diary for this is around the 10th of October onwards where the winter time Stratospheric vortex is ~ half of its winter peak speed @ ~ 16-20 M/S Westerly. Shapes of high pressure through 40- 50N should be flat & the mode of the AO / NAO historically reads as a positive... There is one other important Teleconnection that I never hear anyone ever mention but Ive kept revisiting it each winter for about the last 5 / 6 years is the POL ( the polar eurasia pattern ) The loading pattern for POSTIVE PHASE is measured across Northern Russia down to about Mongolia & is a similar measure to the NAO - The more POSITIVE the phase the lower the geopotential heights are over Norther Russia supporting a westerly circulation So + AO + NAO + POL all indicate a traditional zonal flow. To emphasise this the 90s was where the jet was roaring & the AO & POL certainly in autumn months peaked heavily positive So all said & done taking into consideration natural variation between occasional stronger & weaker years & of course ENSO phases we generally see a uniform process to our weather through Autumn which decends into 'westerlyness' - & this years Autumn forecast would seemingly be very straight forward if you wanted to pluck out things like matches from ENSO state & QBO phase & of course they 'could' still play their part however ENSO will be solid Neutral for SON & QBO will be dwindling Easterly - Anyway- What changes do we see potentially impacting our weather & the imposed 'Westerlyness' ... Pattern Induced Climate change is probably a phrase thats not bantered about to much but it certainly will be in the coming years- The globe is warming however the poles are warming much faster than the average annual rate - this is creating a NEW ( circa 2007 onwards ) feedback loop over the polar cell & * SOME * of the mid lattitudes - It is causing autumn tropospheric decoupling from the stratospheric vortex & it occurs in the low sea ice areas ( or more specifically the areas with the biggest negative anomaly to the norm ) What we have seen since 2007 is not only the decadal average of sea ice decline ( especially August / Sept & Oct ) but also focal points of significant negative anomalies in areas close to where the POL teleconnection is measured. The Barents / kara & laptev seas have all been in the 'ice news' for the wrong reasons & the graphs below show how this summers ice coverage has taken a real beating - The 3 above are in Anticlockwise order from Scandi Eastwards - Notes being * Barents melting out early like the decadal Trend * The next in line Laptev taking a further hit this year - being probably the worst on record * Kara as well - under the decadal ave & close on record lows - - Its also worth noting how far away they are from the 70s / 80s are - imagine how far they would be from the 50s & 60s ! The net fallout from this is the amount of residual latent heat in these areas through Autumn & *Possibly* now Early Winter & what the net fall out is - the creation of a new feedback loop of Positive heights In Northern Russia. This is also probably the net reason 'globally' why there is a reduction in the overall jet speed & depth of negative geopotential heights because of the reduced Thermal Gradient.. This illustrates well if you chunk up Sept & Oct 500 height anomalies charts for 1948 -1990 The base period 1990 - 2006 a fairly significant 16 year phase of ice loss 2007 -2017 the last 10 years in ice loss creating this new feedback loop & pattern change. We see a CLEAR Modal change in the height field over the pole - especially concentrated over the 3 weak ice areas. Lets reintroduce the POL teleconnction to include the last decade The mode has swing to a very sharp -POL especially in Autumn but not exclusive. The data indicates ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wd52dg/data/indices/poleur_index.tim That 2007-2017 Sep / Oct / Nov 20/30 months have been negative with 9/9 on the last 3 Autumns !!! 100% Its also about the 'negativity' of the mode as well - going off the scale more recently.. So Bringing that back to this Autumn & NW Europe the net effect is that the eastward propergation of the atlantic is expected to be weaker & weaker - so for Western Russia we could be promoting an earlier signal for Colder weather developing - This signal fades as we come SW towards Norther & Central Europe, however the extent of the high promotes higher probability of early warmth from the south but again later into Autumn could also promote Colder air filtering through - The UK sits as ever at the end of the blocking - & whilst its immediate impacts may be slightly tempered its still expected to impact us ... but how? I would consider the following in terms of probabilities !!! NOT forecasts... * Higher probability of warmer phases in Sept Oct in particular from the south & East * Higher probability that the atlantic jet will be displaced further NW towards Greenland ( although occasional split jets towards Spain & portugal as well ) * Rainfall - Probability should be that its drier however we could up in the unique scenario where the westerly jet runs out of puff over the UK & its very wet ( the weather becomes stationary ) - this would be very unlucky. Also short periods of very high rainfall could occur * Whilst the probability remains high that it will be warmer than usual - the locality of that blocking high means that as we transition through Oct & Nov the chances of early season chill & cold could also be higher- We could see drastic swings in the weather from extreme Mild & warmth to Cold as the jet flow will be buckled... - Also there could well be some overlap into December in these conditions - Highlghted below-- The transition from Autumn & Winter this year will see the usual array of teleconnections to measure up- Currently - ENSO appears to be Neutral out to December, possible low end El Nino, critically here the lower we stay the weaker the impact will be - QBO - decending Westerly at the moment, whilst this isnt great in the long run the effects of the 'westerly' are unlikely to impact until the late part of winter perhaps reducing the prospects of a SSW ( other factors like MJO activity may support either way ) - Sunspot activity continues to be at a low point in the cycle which is a huge positive- - The troposheric disconnect that may well run through sept > Oct could Extend to Nov > Dec for 2 reasons * The feedback from the ice anomalies is so significant that if on average the signal in the last decade is muted out mid Oct - then how long will the new record low take to mute out ?? Another 4 weeks ?? Plus the wildcard this winter may be that theres support for the feedback from greenland in the form of more warmth due to record low ice here as well Plus the stratosphere is being modelled to be weak- The mean of the all the CFS runs should be taken with a pinch of salt - however its modelling significant weakness as we head through Oct & Nov - Further delaying the onset of the westerlies... So there we go as I see it - Autumn - Blocking to the East supports weaker westerlyness - although the UK could sit on the periphery where the jet holds stationary - ( worst case scenario ) Best case scenario >> Jet up to iceland & warmth Winter - Everything is in place to positively support a blocked winter - however the last peice being the strat will only become clearer in another 8-10 weeks ... Best S
  21. 1 like
    Saturday, 29th Sept. (NEWMARKET) S.P. or TOTE. 1.50 - Kadar TOTE 2.25 - Queen Of Bermuda (NAP) TOTE 3.00 - Space Traveller SP 3.40 - 1) Just In Time TOTE 2) Vis A Vis TOTE 3) Garbanzo TOTE AUTUMN DOUBLE (WIN or EACH WAY.) CAMBRIDGESHIRE (3.40 NEWMARKET) S.P. 1) - Just In Time 2) - Vis A Vis 3) - Garbanzo 20p win Doubles CESAREWITCH (NEWMARKET, Sat.13th Oct.) ANTE-POST ODDS. 1) -Waarif 2) - Stylehunter 3) - Via Serendipity
  22. 1 like
    In spite of the dry summer garden has done very well,huge crop of plums,huge apples and even a few pears Veg are big too carrots parsnips beetroot cabbage sprouts runner beans and parsnips are all huge. Only the peas seemed to senace early in a drier patch. Perhaps its got something to do with all the farm dung I dig in. Cool dry day currently 8c
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    DAY 2 (MORNING FOURBALLS) MATCH 1) RESULT: Finau/Koepka 5/4 MATCH 2) RESULT: Fowler/Johnson 10/11 MATCH 3) RESULT: TIE 9/2 MATCH 4) RESULT: TIE 9/2
  25. 1 like
    Thanks Phil, that's brilliant. Yes a great afternoon for Europe but I'm fully expecting the Yanks, to come roaring back!! Regards, Tom.
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  27. 1 like
    14.3 to the 27th 0.5 above the 61 to 90 average 0.1 above the 81 to 10 average __________________________________ Current high this month 17.4 to the 2nd & 3rd Current low this month 14.2 to the 26th
  28. 1 like
    First day of proper frost and the husband is oot happily swearing away scraping the car. Ah the sweet sounds of winter..
  29. 1 like
    Quickly changing airmass in the fluid pattern
  30. 1 like
    A day of contrasts. Started overcast, windy and mild - 14.5C at 9am. Then a cold front came through around 10:30, marked by torrential rain for a few minutes and very gusty winds. The temperature drop accompanying the front was impressive - down from 14.5C to just 8.9C in no more than 30mins. Light rain on and off after that until 2pm when blue skies reappeared and the rest of the afternoon a mix of sunshine and cloud with a few light showers in the evening - temperatures recovering in the afternoon to a max of 11C, a good 10C lower than yesterday Cold night ahead, already down to 5C. First really large skein of geese passed overhead this evening, plus not seen the house martins the last couple of days. No mistaking now the change of season.
  31. 1 like
    Think youve used a years worth of laughing crying faces
  32. 1 like
    Missed the Duxford Airshow this year die to work commitments, but the few live long in the memory.
  33. 1 like
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  36. 1 like
    There’s nowt as frustrating for a coldie as a west based neg NAO ......
  37. 1 like
    Hi Dave Hope you and your family are well. We have a dining table in our kitchen/diner - a very modern one in fact; red leather and light oak chairs; extendable table. Often have our lads around with partners and kids esp on a Sunday for roast lunch. Even yday, after picking up our 8 yr old grandson from school we all sat around the table for early eve dinner at 5.30. Great focal point for communication, as well as good food. Regards BB
  38. 1 like
  39. 1 like
    Stunning cirrus moving into Suffolk. Signs of the incoming cold front that will spoil this lovely late September warmth for tomorrow.
  40. 1 like
    Very wet this morning after a mild drizzly night.Has cleared to a fine blue sky and light shower cloud .Much cooler though now . A photo of self seeded sunflower in strawberry patch.It only germianated in early August and is now flowering.
  41. 1 like
    The vortex strength at this time of the year is not particular indicative as to how it might progress. The chart below shows the correlation between the 10mb zonal wind and its strength at intervals between 7-42 days later. At this time of year (end of September / start of October) the predictability is at its lowest, only correlating a week in advance. At the end of October / start of November the zonal wind is fairly predictable a month and a half ahead as the vortex is properly formed at this point and is generally too early for major warmings in this period. After this, long term correlations fall as warmings affect the dataset, but short term the vortex increases in predictability for one and two weeks in advance and is fairly stable up to three weeks - the kind of timescales that warmings may take to materialise.
  42. 1 like
    Sea ice has jumped in the last couple of weeks across northern Canada and is above average for the date for the first time in a decade. The last time it was this icy for the time of year was 2004 and, before, that 1996. This year: https://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/CVCSWCTWA/20180924180000_CVCSWCTWA_0010248250.pdf https://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/CVCSWCTEA/20180924180000_CVCSWCTEA_0010248245.pdf And the last 4 decades at this at this date: https://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/CVCHDCTWA/20180924180000_CVCHDCTWA_0010248247.pdf https://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/CVCHDCTEA/20180924180000_CVCHDCTEA_0010248243.pdf It's tempting to say its just ice pack movements to that side from Russia but there has also been a trend of increasing ice in Hudson Bay, Eastern Canada and the Great Lakes in recent years as well, so it might not just be Canadian Arctic. Also, the Baltic Sea has seen ice moving back closer to average as well. Blips - or maybe late 70s hot dry summers and cold snowy winters making a come-back (depending where you live)?
  43. 1 like
  44. 1 like
    Latest ECM 46 day forecast keeps the UK below or well below for the entire run from the 29th. Could be time to pack the old flip flops away guys ️
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    A very recent scientific paper (published Sept 24th 2018) and titled "Changing state of Arctic sea ice across all seasons" provides some worrying quantification of the impact of warming in the Arctic. Here are some of the main conclusions: Ice cover has not only retreated in its areal extent, it has also become much younger and thinner in recent years. In April 2018, only about 2% of the winter sea-ice cover consisted of sea ice older than 5 years, compared to almost 30% of the April sea-ice cover in 1984. Accelerated sea ice loss during all months of the year is additionally driven by a lengthening of the melt season. As assessed for the Arctic as a whole through April 2018, melt onset is occurring 3 days earlier per decade, and freeze-up is happening 7 days later per decade. Over the 40 year long satellite record, this amounts to a 12 day earlier melt onset and a 28 day later freeze-up. The primary cause of the ongoing changes in all months are anthropogenic CO2 emissions, with a clear linear relationship between sea ice loss and cumulative anthropogenic CO2 emissions in all months. Extrapolating the linear relationships into the future, we find that the Arctic Ocean completely loses its ice cover throughout August and September for an additional roughly 800 ± 300 Gt of anthropogenic CO2 emissions. For an additional 1400 ± 300 Gt of anthropogenic CO2 emissions, we estimate the Arctic to become sea-ice free from July throughout October. I've been active over the summer months helping build a Research Portal over on the American weather forum 33andrain. You can find the abstract and link to the above paper here: https://www.33andrain.com/topic/1422-changing-state-of-arctic-sea-ice-across-all-seasons/ And there are many other papers in the Research Portal about Arctic Amplification (Warming) and Sea Ice Loss, so please feel free to take a look. The Index to the research facility is here: https://www.33andrain.com/topic/996-index-to-papers-and-articles/
  47. 1 like
    First frost outside, temperature currently 2 degrees, heating on.
  48. 1 like
    Apple Store near me got robbed. I have to go and give a statement. I'm an iWitness.
  49. 1 like
    Windy here and cooler. Absolutely threw it down last night. While apprehensive somewhat with regard to the winds I love this weather cos it means fire on in evenings and a wave goodbye to such frequent salads and a big hello to comfort food....
  50. 1 like
    My mate rang me last week telling me that he couldn't take his collie dog to the caravan park i said why he said that it was a ban-collie-day.
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