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Wintery charts still showing at the back end of the GFS runs . These from the 6z .

Pretty sure that our extended warm period is now at an end ....... and expect a taste of late autumn/perhaps early winter week 2/3. Latest ec46 has Europe T2 below average throughout.

A fairly potent N'ly on the GFS 18z. Get set - its coming! Been telling you all for weeks, trust me, there is going to be some very severe weather over the next few months of allsorts, something for everyone - all types of severe weather fans.

interesting as having lows into southern southeastern europe help aid a quick surge in snow cover for some. and to see a mid atlantic block is also rather exciting especially if strong and sustained. either this sends lows under or over, also allowing perhaps either a split developing polar vortex weakened in strength or sustained over scandinavia side of the arctic. of coarse this not a forecast just some ideas on where we might be heading through rest of autumn into winter. low solar activity or should i say sustained spotless activity,hurricaine season bit more lively than expected. enso weak el nino. and actually a very blocked summer and blocking at the end of winter into the first part of spring which gave us a taste of true winter. something telling me this winter could well be close to winter of 2009/10. the models today do see a bit of warmth flirting with southern uk but as you progress through all the main models temps eventually decline and you can see the heat in europe slipping away into southern spain and north africa. unsettled to our north but settled here in the uk and into scandinavia unsettled into central europe and the mediterranean so uncle barty not here yet to ruin the christmas party. been a classic year of weather watching lets hope we continue into winter with the same exciting extremes without loss of life though.

Well, that's something you don't see often..

It can happen in October but it is quite rare especially down south . I'm just liking the overall bigger picture tho . Atlantic blocked and no raging W to SW winds . The Alantic has been dead since the SSW in February . Let's hope it stays that way leading up to winter .

Outlook - remaining unsettled for the next three days and then a rapid transition to a period of quieter and cooler conditions. The NH profile and surface analysis at midnight. Storm Bronagh is now just in the North Sea so the strong winds in the southern and western quadrants are abating, albeit still very breezy across much of England and Wales, but for a few hours this morning some very strong winds will effect the north east coast as Bronagh clears the mainland. A wodge rain still effecting the north east and northern Scotland as the front loops around but the cold front which brought some lively and wet conditions overnight has cleared the south east. Thus today the UK will be in a fresh north westerly/westerly with frequent showers, including hail and thunder in the mix. Which will tend to become more concentrated in the north west as the day progresses . Overnight the winds will abate in many areas and the showers fizzle out, with western Scotland being the exception so a clear quite chilly start to Saturday bot cloud and rain associated with the next frontal system will reach the south west by early morning and will move north east through the day, Dry and sunny north of the rain belt apart from western Scotland where showers will persist. So through the rest of Saturday and Sunday the complex wave/frontal system continues to track across Wales and southern England thus a very wet night and Sunday and it again could be very windy in some ares with possible the south east bearing the brunt as the system exits east.but even at this range uncertainty persists regarding this. By Monday high pressure that has been edging in from the west behind the last system is in control with a much quieter day in the offing, albeit quite cool with some air frost and fog patches first up. A not dissimilar day on Tuesday with the centre of the high cell moving east. And the NH profile at T120

This morning's fax updates Sat > Sunday and the ecm. Could be quite windy adjacent to the south coast on Sunday with briefly some nifty gusts in the far south east late afternoon.

Of interest to follow, Schwabe cycle 11 years, last Schwabe minima 2007 = 152 days 2008 = 256 days 2009 = 250 days Now move forward 11 years 2018 = 149 days.......with 102 days to go. If this is going where anticipated then 2019/2020 could be very very quiet and we ‘could’ be in for a major bottoming out come 2029-2032? The target ‘projection’ of 1st of a double dip Grand Minima this century. Fascinating observations currently BFTP

The dog

A nice sunny afternoon after the wind and rain of recent days. Over the last couple of months we've steadily transitioned from the warm summer into autumn and now it feels like we are about to start autumn proper with shorter days, falling leaves and cooler, wetter and windier conditions. I'm not expecting anything to match the captivating first 7 months with the momentum - which saw various interesting and notable events in a remarkable smooth and swift transition from snowy winter to warm summer - slowing down. The transition from summer to winter isn't renowned for being sharp and dramatic and autumn doesn't tend to have the same variations in temperature during the spring. Autumn is often unsettled with plenty of rain and occasional storms and fairly mild, with some frosty nights and warm days. Hopefully there'll be more of today's sunshine in the coming weeks aswell as traditional autumnal weather and some final warmth as we look forward to the first signs of winter with snow already falling on the tops of the mountains.

Booming thunder and lightning just off New Brighton

Wish I still had my rain gauge, been an absolute deluge here the last couple of days.

Would be a big ask to get snow down South in early October, But here is hoping.

850mb temp anomaly chart would indicate a cold Monday for the British Isles, especially in Eastern Parts. C

.winds sweeping down from a northerly quadrant as we head into October. Not sure where you get that idea from?

I don't wish to be morbid, but if the ECM 12z is correct, you could well snuff it on sunday.

I've got one of those. Heavy shower passing through now, he's dancing by the back door to go out

The cat

its that time of year when a slight adjustment in the high pressure will make a big difference to conditions on the ground

it was one hell of a storm. never saw rain like that before was literally like walking under waterfall but for 20mins

More recent model runs weakening the proposed (current not onset) El Nino. Awaiting BOM next update. I was thinking the last 3 months it would be ENSO neutral or weakish Modoki. I was favouring neutral, but looks like I guessed wrong according to models. All shall be come clear soon, though. ECMWF and MetO appear to be on the top end of the estimate still. Can change. Solar fairly weak. Not yet clear if minimum. But low, none the less. This, of course, leads to unknowns for the second half of Autumn and early winter. I'm no expert, but I'd suggest that the Atlantic should have a weak influence into early winter, but how the ENSO develops the next weeks to influence Autumn is up for grabs.

Following a monumentally vile day today is little improvement. Cold, windy and showery. Fitting for the first day of astronomical autumn. According to Netweather Sunday looks to be an early taste of what could be a long winter with a mere 8C at best. Oh happy days

Thunder!!!

High res MODIS at 1134 UTC and midday chart

Atlantic been dead? Certainly don't agree with that but the jet stream in general has been more Northerly. Quite a normal ounlock for September, no surprises the GFS bomb of a low pressure system is alot more shallow and uninteresting although the potential was there. Could very well see the first widespread ground frost and perhaps fog in the early part of next week though. Proper signs of Autumn.

October CFS theme continued. GFS showing a possible route to get there.

Quiz time!!! Spot the weekend?

The flooding that happened in some areas due to rain met the criteria. In fact quite surprised an amber wasn't issued for that. Also there were trees down in a few se areas, probably elsewhere too.

This mornings chat with the team from over here is still some uncertainty over the exact track of Sundays Low. However, their own model continues to show a more southerly track than some of the main models and UKMO fax input. They expect the Low to deepen but not intensely east of the meridian and move through at a pace before slowing somewhat over the North European Plain. Some strong winds for a time in its wake to affect our part of the Eastern Alps. Snow portal service should get an update later today when the track of this development firms up. Still strong pressure rises backed for the middle of next week and longer term thoughts indicate retrogressive developments by the end of the month with October starting a cooler/colder phase for much of Europe including the British Isles. C

Hope everyone is OK after the big storm. My watering can was blown over. As I said yesterday, all it was ever going to be was a brief squall line and a bit if rain, 2.4mm. Still, back to 2/3 weeks of boring non-event high pressure next week which will please most. Haven't checked on Sunday yet, though I dare say they will be warning me my bin lid might blow off. Drama....

That squall line packed a punch last night! Few branches down on my way to work but nothing major, reports of a few trees on the ascot to Guilford line and logs blown onto the m25. Was out last night with my brother and we parked away from this massive chestnut tree full of chestnuts they were dropping out the tree, anyway we went to get a beer come back and a huge branch had snapped out and was in the road.. Good call

Made it! Won't be doing that again in a hurry. Beautiful sunrise made up for it!

We may possibly squeak another warm day or two out next thursday/friday....but other than that, it's hardly surprising, it'll be October in 9 days! NOAA anomalies showing a strong mid atlantic high....winds sweeping down from a northerly quadrant as we head into October.

That squall line was evil but incredible at the same time! We are now well and truly on the rollercoaster! Sea seems a lot rougher on the other side of the line. Currently watching all the stuff in the shop slide about and have wagers on what will fall off the selves next

It's the tardis.

Thanks for that. Wind and rain really picked up here. No thunder as yet. I am probably a bit strange. I have got a top window open and the noise of the wind and rain is almost comforting. I lived in a second, (top), floor flat for 40 years with my mum. You could hear weather against the roof and windows. My boyfriend and I moved to Charlwood in 2012. The house wasn't really one you could hear the weather in, if you get what I mean. This house we are currently in is brilliant for hearing rain and wind. Sorry for waffling on.

That doesn't mean it is going to snow! Either in October or in the winter. That chart just suggests coolish rain, yuk. Better to focus on outputs from the likes of CFS on pressure patterns in Barents or Kara seas or the Taymyr peninsula, to give a better indication of how the polar vortex is shaping up for winter proper, in that regard discussion in other threads suggest a lot of promise for cold - in winter proper!

Here’s Helen skiing at the top of Cairngorm this morning. Perhaps not a very long run though?

Sunspot number: 0 Spotless Days Current Stretch: 8 days 2018 total: 150 days (57%) The Radio Sun 10.7 cm flux: 68 sfu

P7 even better - a band of snow moving down the pennines. 0c breached on London eps graph.

Try not to get blown away by it.. Sorry someone had to say it. On a more serious note completely dry and clear here at the moment which feels weird after 9 hours of rain you almost get used to it.

Brb - going for a dump.

Day 10 on the ECM and some quite cold 850s lurking to the North East . Just need the high to pull out west further into the alantic and up towards Greenland and then there be over the uk . Got a feeling we're gonna be in for an early winter this year . #beast from the North and East this year

For the first time since April 10th the pressure has dropped below 1000hPa. 999.87hPa.

Sunny Sheffield on 14.7C bang on average. Rainfall 25.2mm 38.5% of average and certainly will be above average by tomorrow by some way as well.

Here's a few snap shots on Sunday's storm . Wales and the west 70mph winds . And then the east takes a battering and still very windy midlands and the south east . Check out the last chart 111mph on the east coast

That’s a big high pressure for next week! 1040mb

This is MSM at its best!