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The CFS on almost every run for the last 20 or 30 has shown a below average 850hpa mean profile for October, and most have shown between -2c and -4c anomaly.

Mmm not sure where your summer returns stems from, the high pressure will be ridging through under chilly uppers, frost likely and suppressed temps, and none of the models showing a significant warm up next week.

Could someone start a thread where all these pointless and repetitive complaints about the warning systems could go? Some of us are in here for actual updates on what's happening, not what was said might happen and how that pans out for 14 High Street, Myback, Yardshire.

Some remarkable charts showing for early October.

Stay safe everyone

Storm & Convective Forecast Issued 2018-09-20 12:10:49 Valid: 20/09/2018 12z - 21/09/2018 06z THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK - THURSDAY/FRIDAY 20/21 SEPT 2018 Synopsis Broad upper troughing covers higher latitudes of N Europe / N Atlantic with ridging over southern Europe, a strong westerly jet stream continues to plough over UK and Ireland and on through to Scandinavia, a potent shortwave in the strong upper westerlies will interact with frontal zone lying across southern Britain and out across the N Atlantic, allowing a wave then developing low to form and track NE across England and Wales, deepening as it does so. A squally cold front sweeps SE across England and Wales later, clearing SE England in the early hours. There is potential for strong convection with isolated thunder, damaging convective gusts, intense rainfall and possibly an isolated tornado with the front and also near the deepening low as it exits NE. … ENGLAND and WALES … A warm and rather moist airmass conveyor, with Precipitable Water (PWAT) values approaching 35mm, will be present to south of buckling frontal zone stretching through Wales and central/northern England, which will feature a deepening low moving NE across N England this evening. The warm/moist airmass will become modestly unstable as large-scale ascent and cooling aloft occurs with approaching upper trough and developing surface low. Some embedded convection is likely to develop within pulses of increasingly heavy rainfall spreading NE across Wales, central and N England through the afternoon and evening along buckling frontal zone, although lightning is expected to be isolated, limited by warm layer aloft creating weak lapse rates, intense burst of convective rainfall may lead to some flash-flooding. As the cold front begins to shift S and E through the evening before clearing SE England/E Anglia in the early hours of Friday morning, as the low continues to deepen as it moves out to the North Sea, line convection appears likely to develop along the front – bringing a risk of squally intense rainfall accompanied by lightning locally and strong perhaps damaging wind gusts (50-60mph, locally more with exposure) just ahead of the front. Some flash-flooding and localised wind damage is possible with passage of the squally cold front. Given strong veering of surface winds with frontal passage and strong vertical shear – there is potential for a tornado too with any broken line segments along the cold front, but this potential isolated. ... WESTERN COASTAL AREAS EARLY FRIDAY ... Post cold front polar airmass atop of warm SSTs will create steep lapse rates which will support scattered heavy showers and some weak thunderstorms producing small hail, gusty winds and perhaps localised flooding across western coastal areas. Issued by: Nick Finnis https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/uk/convective

But the fact that its showing such a large -ve anomaly suggests a favourable pattern is there where as the default pattern produces mild gunk in October, that said, I am not massively convinced that it necessarily means it will be repeated in Nov or Dec either so you do have a point but I am not convinced we are going to get an SSW on the scale of last year so on balance I would prefer a slow start for the vortex with ridges being thown up towards Greenland.

ECM tonight develops a very serious storm over East Anglia this Sunday, with gusts up to 100mph on the Norfolk coast

This chart below shows a big change for Central/ Eastern Europe early next week.. Summer to winter in a matter of a few days. Looks like temporary Arctic airmass in the mix for the Eastern Alps. C

Outlook - continuing unsettled for the rest of the week and over the weekend and then a much quieter spell beckons with light winds, albeit quite cool with some air frost and morning fog patches. The 500mb and surface analysis at midnight and the 0300 surface chart on which the wave that is going to be quite influential today is starting to show. Today the blustery wind and showers over Scotland will continue for a time but the key feature is the front trailing across the Midlands and the south west with the associated band of rain. This will tend to move slightly north through the morning but ast the wave to the west starts to get organized and track NE heavier rain will start effecting Wales by midday and then proceed across northern England during the afternoon. By 1800 the cold front is across Wales and the south west as the wave begins to significantly deepen, Rainfall amounts in Wales and the north west could be very high. Much of Scotland and the south east will miss the rain. During the evening the wave continues to deepen and by midnight is some where near Carlisle 983mb so now strong winds as well as copious amounts of rain becomes an issue. Particularly along the cold front as it tracks south east in the southern quadrant of the low so the strongest winds will be in the south west, southern central and the south east. And of course still plenty of rain along the front and near the low. Another day and another dollar and by midday Friday the deep low is now near the south west coast of Norway, briefly initiating some strong winds along the north east coast on it's travels, leaving the UK in a blustery and showery north westerly and quite a cool day. The north westerly regime continues over night but through Saturday another frontal system approaches from the west and cloud and rain from the associated fronts will effect Wales and the southern half of England by 1800. Another quite cool day The wave gets more organized overnight Saturday and through Sunday and by midday the triple point is over East Anglia.thus continuing wet across most off England and Wales and becoming quite windy for a time particularly in the south east. By Monday the fronts are away to the east with high pressure now in charge, apart for western Scotland which is effected by and adjacent front, so light winds and chilly mornings with fog patches, as mentioned earlier, replaces the unsettled scenario. And so to the NH profile for T120 which makes much better viewing than of late.

Just saw a tweet from yesterday showing CFSV2 forecast for first week October has an anomously weak westerly flow at 10mb ……. now this is the CFSV2 but stuck clocks are right twice a day and we aren't talking too far ahead in any case …...analogues with 2009 would I think tie in with a very weak zonal flow at the beginning of the season

True but 0ct 2008 was a precursor to something else later that winter.

Here’s Helen skiing at the top of Cairngorm this morning. Perhaps not a very long run though?

The view from the team over here very much on the view being shown from UKMO model in the shorter term. The track of Sundays low may be even a bit further south than shown on the latest fax but expected to move through at a pace. Obviously, now changes the forecast for us in the Eastern Alps with a change in the present spell of warm benign weather to a more unsettled spell to start next week with wind rain and snow at elevation for a time as indicated in the upper air profile chart for Tuesday. A bit of a shock for us over here. Longer term, the high settling over Western Europe with temps recovering and then the thought from our experts is for the high to retrogress into the Atlantic to open the doors to a much cooler end to the month for many in Europe ( including the UK ) c

Well the hiatus over Sunday seems to be settling down to near enough what the latest Fax charts show? The T+84 is somewhat different from the Exeter idea from last evening, T+96. A ridge then moving in from the west which finally fits in with the idea from the 500 mb anomaly charts of ridging being the main player for next week. I can't say that any model has been really all that helpful over the past 48 hours! Just my view of course. https://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t96

Good work all round for the Met Offices. It's interesting to see a few regular "warnings bashers" not in the forum tonight. Round 2 (or is it "3"?) on Friday. It looks interesting and not in a good way. No one should feel bad that these events pique their interest. I often wonder how many lives weather fans save by passing on weather information to their nearest and dearest. For example, I've just advised all of my friends on social media to work from home if possible on Friday "just in case", already had several "thanks, will do" from people. Knowledge is never a bad thing and our knowledge is the result of our interest.

lightning strike over dalton in furness

Think I largely agree with this actually, a slow start to the vortex definitely preferred because the strengthening west QBO will reduce the likelihood of a late SSW like last year as the winter goes on. I'm not ruling out an early SSW though! A while since we've had one, but I think it's on the cards at least.

Someone skiing this morning at Cairngorm, Scotland. Ok not the longest run in the world but it’s a start.

Very heavy raIn since noon, but no significant wind, just miserably lashing it down with heavy rain forecast for the rest of this afternoon and most of tomorrow. OJ joy!

Your milking this now

Oh come on pull the udder one. C.S

Pretty bad in South Manchester, heavy sustained rainfall

Get heavy here now , wife looking through window all miserable, if it carries on I'll have to let her in .

Still quite a bit of uncertainty for now IMO re: Sunday's low, GFS and UKMO in the same camp with a shallow but slowly deepening low running across the south on Sunday, whilst 00z ECMWF shows a much more menacing and deeper low tracking and deepening further north. All charts below from 00z runs for noon Sun 23 Sept GFS UKMO ECMWF Ensembles from GFS and EC not really giving too much of a clue either other than GEFS mean and postage stamps want to keep the low south and shallow like the operational, whilst the EPS mean keeps the low in the means further north in track GEFS slp mean and spread GEFS postage stamps EPS mean slp Personally, I think the EC will track the low further south and shallower on subsequent runs, while GFS and UKMO perhaps edge further north. But still can't rule out some deeper options than GFS currently shows - 06z GFS very similar in track and depth to 00z of low centre across S England Sunday morning, so sticking to its guns for now!

And of course the ecm has to be different to lasts night's fax for Sunday as the upper trough tracks east distorting the jet and picking up our wave which tracks across central Britain and thus some quite strong winds on it's western and southern flanks. But this morning's fax charts are not buying this

September certainly kicking into life at the moment - a proper blast of stormy wet weather we are in, short-term developments galore, making short-term forecasting a headache - where will see the strongest winds and heaviest rain. Reason for the explosion of low heights shown in most models this time tomorrow, is the marked temp profile developing over the UK, we have some very mild tropical air over southern UK with cold uppers digging in from the north, along the boundary a waving front and then bingo a rapid deepening low pressure. The main feature will be the persistant heavy rain, N Wales, Pennines and Lake District will see a deluge, localised flooding - and memories of the dry late spring - early summer will seem a lifetime ago.. Friday will see most of the UK in a chilly NW airstream, Saturday calmer and drier for most, and still chilly, Sunday up in the air, but increasing signal another bout of very windy very weather for most, and some very chilly air digging in behind - will feel more like late Oct/early Nov, some wintry precipitation for Scottish Highlands and a significant risk of a widespread frost for north Sunday night followed by high pressure. Lots going on - very autumnal.

Rain getting beefy?

Rain very heavy now ,no bull ....

If you continue I will have to put you on Mooote In other news Heavy Rain causing lots of surface water C.S

Why on Earth do they call it 'auto-correct'? Another breezy, cloudy and muggy day...19.4C.

Absolutely tipping it down.

It was moooving fast

Wow what a taf from Liverpool. Looks like a thundery squall line cold front as well as post frontal thundery showers. The report was made 1 hour and 10 minutes ago, at 11:04 UTC Forecast valid from 20 at 12 UTC to 21 at 12 UTC Wind 8 kt from the South/Southeast Visibility 10 km or more Few clouds at a height of 3000 ft Becoming from 20 at 12 UTC to 20 at 14 UTC Wind 10 kt from the East Visibility: 5000 m rain Temporary from 20 at 12 UTC to 20 at 22 UTC Visibility: 3000 m Broken clouds at a height of 1200 ft heavy rain Probability 30% : Temporary from 20 at 12 UTC to 20 at 18 UTC Broken clouds at a height of 800 ft Becoming from 20 at 18 UTC to 20 at 21 UTC Wind 14 kt from the South Probability 40% : Temporary from 20 at 18 UTC to 20 at 23 UTC Wind 17 kt from the South with gusts up to 30kt Visibility 10 km or more Probability 30% : Temporary from 20 at 22 UTC to 20 at 24 UTC Visibility: 3000 m Broken clouds at a height of 1000 ft Broken clouds at a height of 1800 ft, Cumulonimbus. thunderstorm, heavy rain Becoming from 20 at 23 UTC to 21 at 02 UTC Wind 20 kt from the West with gusts up to 32 kt Visibility 10 km or more Probability 30% : Temporary from 21 at 00 UTC to 21 at 05 UTC Wind 28 kt from the West/Northwest with gusts up to 42 kt Visibility: 3000 m Broken clouds at a height of 1400 ft heavy rain Temporary from 21 at 02 UTC to 21 at 12 UTC Visibility: 6000 m rain showers Probability 30% : Temporary from 21 at 05 UTC to 21 at 12 UTC Visibility: 3000 m Broken clouds at a height of 1400 ft Broken clouds at a height of 2500 ft, Cumulonimbus. heavy rain showers, thunderstorm, small hail or snow pellets

Here's hoping mate. Only 4mm so far this month, bonkers. I guess about another 8-10mm over the next 5 days if we are lucky. The flipflop brigade are still about so we haven't entered proper autumn just yet.

Respite from record-breaking snow in Alberta. Next up according to forecasts - Iceland and Norway. https://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/articles/rounds-of-snow-hit-alberta-below-seasonal-temperatures-snowiest-september-on-record-edmonton/111884

Arome does best convective gusts.. The streaks are what we look for

So thankfully the big September heatwave never happened and hopefully we’ll now enter the long road to proper winter. It’s looking like we might get some decent rainfall this week to soften the ground and with all the wind it’s looking quite interesting.

A few photos from yesterday Haddington and the border (driver was okay)

Significant dusting of snow on the webcams of Cairngorm on Winterhighland this morning . Chilly here dry and breezy at 8c. Right on cue at the equinox.

As a juxtaposition, I've got arthritis in all my joints and dread any downturn in temperatures. I shall miss Summer.

Yet another really muggy night, just passed. Can't wait for the fresher air to arrive tomorrow, even if we have to go through a bit of wind and rain, tonight. Thankfully, some proper Autumnal weather on our doorstep, at last!! Regards, Tom.

Is there any discussion yet of slight risk severe storm development late Thursday? Just wondering as I only see this thread and the weekend system in actual thread titles. If no discussion, I will start off by saying the developing cold front timed for about 18z to 21z across south central England looks capable of setting off some thunderstorms with slight risk of hail and damaging winds.

It's certainly been a day and an event. The Met Office and Met Eireann can at least be assured that #StormAli will be remembered in Ireland and Scotland and that Amber warnings in the future might get more attention paid to them . One newspaper editor said he'd been caught out by events (from a well forecast storm, and needed to move staff to stories) Lamp post fell down outside school, cars smashed by falling trees. 53mph mean winds for Kincardineshire and Gwynedd both sites around 100m elevation - severe gale. Lorry and car overturned at border on A1

Stormy then summer returns. This could be volatile weekend but get ready to get the BBQ and shorts on again. Two big stories likely in 5 days.....for very different reasons. BFTP

Just thought I'd show this from the 12z GFS OP, 9C over Northern Lincolnshire and 21C just to the south of the wash..... What a temperature gradient! Still a lot of uncertainties about this storm but an extended period of anticyclonic weather thereafter looking more likely.

Day 2 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 20 Sep 2018 - 05:59 UTC Fri 21 Sep 2018 ISSUED 20:37 UTC Wed 19 Sep 2018 ISSUED BY: Dan Very little lightning activity is expected through Thursday daytime - mainly over the far NW of Scotland and the Northern Isles, but even here probably rather isolated. Elsewhere, a near-stationary warm front will bring increasingly persistent and heavy rain to Wales, northern England and the north Midlands. During Thursday evening, a sharpening upper trough and associated strong forcing will cause the warm front to buckle, developing a frontal wave and rapid cyclogenesis. A notable warm, moist low-level airmass will exist across England and Wales south of the warm front and ahead of the sharpening cold front - consequently, a few hundred J/kg CAPE will develop ahead of the cold front, and close to the triple point. Strong, largely unidirectional, deep layer shear will exist across the area, though the thermally-active cold front will be marked by a notable wind veer at the surface. The environment, therefore, will be favourable for convective elements to develop during the evening and night hours as the frontal system crosses England and Wales to the North Sea. Embedded line convection / squalls are likely along the cold front, which may also exhibit some sporadic lightning - though difficult to say exactly how frequent this may be given rather saturated profiles and weak instability. An extension to the SLGT may be required across parts of the Midlands. Nonetheless, some damaging gusts of wind will be possible, and perhaps a tornado where any marked bow echoes can develop. The best overlap of shear, instability and forcing appears to evolve over Wales initially during the first half of the evening, then into northern England before clearing to the North Sea quite quickly during the early hours. As a result, have issued a SLGT here where lightning seems more probable (with limited confidence given some uncertainty as to how far north the triple point may reach). Near this feature, forecast soundings yield curved hodographs, and given the pre-existing environment, this zone carries the greatest risk of a tornado. Farther west, beneath the upper trough, a classic autumn/winter scenario will unfold with cold air aloft overspreading warm SSTs of the Atlantic to generate steep lapse rates and a few hundred J/kg CAPE - hence numerous showers and some sporadic lightning will be possible near the coasts of Ireland initially, and then W Scotland and Irish Sea coasts later in the night. Gusty winds will also be possible with this activity. http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-09-20

Sunday maybe the Autumn Equinox but according to the charts, we could be in for a taste of Winter, Arpege now shows an area of snow (yes snow in parts of mid & east Wales) while the GFS shows an unseasonably cold feeling afternoon too!

Can I just post to say thanks in advance to all the people who explain the charts to the rest of us so well! I'm not in here year-round, and normally wouldn't be in til the snows are due, but given the current weather I had to come in to see if I can learn something about these complex systems. You lot and your 'translations' are a godsend!