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Greetings! A shiny new model thread for the new season to continue your discussions of the latest charts etc. There looks to be a lot of wild weather to come in the next few days with further showers, heavy rain and blowy weather. As many have illustrated, some particular concerns about Sunday where models, such as the GFS, show a troublesome storm exploding over the U.K! However, since it’s still a few days away and with models showing varied solutions on the Low Pressure system’s track and power, there are still questions as to how bad it may actually be. Even before then, there’s a risk of gales at times with strong South-Westerly to Westerly winds. Please keep on topic in here sticking to the models and please keep things friendly. Rude and insulting behaviour is not tolerated! If your post contains moans, banter and ramps, expect it to either get deleted or moved into a more suitable thread. Would be ideal to keep any banter and moaning to a minimum, otherwise this would be a more suited thread for it (especially if it’s about Autumn): But a bit of moans, banter and ramping is acceptable in here as longs as it still has a fair amount of sensible model chat and is not overdone. Additionally, we also have a Short Range Model Chat thread, which can be used to discuss charts within the short range (preferably around the 0 to 72 hour mark, but up to 5 days would still be okay). But you can still use this main model thread if you wish for short range discussions. Also, we have a Model Tweets thread for posting tweets about the models: ...and a Stratospheric Temperature watch thread for monitoring the temperatures and conditions within the Stratosphere: If you do post tweets about the models in this main model thread, then make sure you include some reasonable discussion of the models in your post as well, otherwise it may get moved to the Model Tweets thread. (Edit): Having said that, we have lots of different topics in this forum section you can take part in, not just the ones mentioned above. ————————— Want to view the model outputs? You can get all the major ones here on Netweather: GFS GEFS Ensembles ECMWF ECMWF EPS NetWx-SR NetWx-MR Met-Office Fax GEM GFS Hourly Model Comparison Global Jet Stream Stratosphere (Link to previous thread): —————————— Thanks all!

Last but not least - a butterfly! I came out of hibernation early and thought It wouldn't last but the modeling has been fantastic over the last week or so, really enjoyable watching and interesting setups, I really do think that there is going to be a lot of severe weather events in the near future not just here but aaround thee world, very interesting viewing coming up for severe weather fans, of course snow is always number 1 but storms are still a good buzz when they are more than just a breeze that is

Really? It went slap bang over my flat in 1987 and it was horrific! I was petrified, but unlike my neighbours ended up with an intact roof. Wouldn't want to repeat it, or wish it on my worst enemy

I'd like to apologise for my comment earlier. I did judge too soon. I guess I had seen so many people recklessly ignoring warnings for no good reason in Florence and had suffered as a result and just presumed this was the same. I would not wish death on anybody, obviously. Of course if she had been warned and there was no good reason for not leaving then that's one thing. But it appears in this case there may have been other factors that lead to her staying. I know the mods asked for no arguing on the matter but felt it right to apologise.

Can I just post to say thanks in advance to all the people who explain the charts to the rest of us so well! I'm not in here year-round, and normally wouldn't be in til the snows are due, but given the current weather I had to come in to see if I can learn something about these complex systems. You lot and your 'translations' are a godsend!

And there we have it. I don't know of many people who check the weather warnings when on holiday. She probably thought she was ok where she was etc or simply didn't know. But in any case there's some heartless comments about today. It's not as if she was out swimming in the open sea etc and putting emergency services at risk. She's now dead at the bottom of a cliff in a caravan what an awful way to die. And yet some on here feel it's ok to say they have zero sympathy. Well it speaks more about what type of person they are than this poor woman. Seriously ground my gears this afternoon.

She was a Swiss national in her 50s on Holiday, travelling on her own. I imagine she wasn't aware of what was about to transpire. People are quick to Judge.

Not being funny but does anyone know why this woman was in the caravan etc. Regardless if she didn't listen to the warnings someone has still lost their life. Have some decorum instead of being so bloody heartless. She may have no family she may have had mobility issues etc or she may not have taken the warnings seriously. But either way it's distasteful a couple of these comments and I don't care who roasts me for this post.

Support really gathering pace now for some big convective snow showers N'ly / NE'ly this Autumn.

You truly are nuts! Oct 1987 caused huge destruction and brought significant misery to many. We do NOT want that!

The crazy charts continue to throw some wild weather into them for Sunday, the latest is the Arpege which now has an area of snow (yes snow on the Autumn Equinox) across parts of mid & east Wales! Meanwhile the GFS continues to show an unusually cold afternoon for this time of year too for much of the UK behind that system... What next will it show I wonder???

The Met office complaints department should deal with that for you. Though you do need to subscribe to their premium service if you want a sting jet over your house...

September certainly kicking into life at the moment - a proper blast of stormy wet weather we are in, short-term developments galore, making short-term forecasting a headache - where will see the strongest winds and heaviest rain. Reason for the explosion of low heights shown in most models this time tomorrow, is the marked temp profile developing over the UK, we have some very mild tropical air over southern UK with cold uppers digging in from the north, along the boundary a waving front and then bingo a rapid deepening low pressure. The main feature will be the persistant heavy rain, N Wales, Pennines and Lake District will see a deluge, localised flooding - and memories of the dry late spring - early summer will seem a lifetime ago.. Friday will see most of the UK in a chilly NW airstream, Saturday calmer and drier for most, and still chilly, Sunday up in the air, but increasing signal another bout of very windy very weather for most, and some very chilly air digging in behind - will feel more like late Oct/early Nov, some wintry precipitation for Scottish Highlands and a significant risk of a widespread frost for north Sunday night followed by high pressure. Lots going on - very autumnal.

Well if the nasty storm GFS keeps progging for Sunday comes off, EC not as deep and further north but still very windy and wet, at least the models are in unison in bringing a strong ridge of high pressure in on the back of Sunday's system - which may persist throughout next week.

Fifty years ago For some reason the strong winds across the central belt of Scotland today reminded me of the great storm of 1968 that blew much of Glasgow down but tragically killed twenty people. It did Glasgow a favour in one respect in that the appalling housing situation in the city now had to be tackled., Fortunately today's winds are not going to be that strong. I was on a ship anchored at the tail of the bank at Greenock and we were lucky as we dragged our anchor and nearly ended up on Gourock high street. Others were not so lucky as a ship sank close by and the crew drowned. That's the end of this morning's snippet https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1968_Scotland_storm

ARPEGE 12z at T42 for Friday, savage for the midlands! But Sunday T101, has the whole thing way south now, to be fair the first time this model is in range so more runs needed here: GFS 12z doesn't really downgrade the storm much on the 1 hr charts (good call @Man With Beard) here T100: Don't think anyone's posted the GEM, has the storm here T96, slightly less deep but worrying track: So much going on here!

Sunny raining and windy here too. A fantastic rainbow in the field so will look for the pot of gold later. Some vicious gusts last night about 1.00am has broken open gates and taken several big limbs off several ash trees so on top of keeping an eye on calving cows have had a bit of tridying up to do this morning. Currently squally heavy rain and 12c.

Sky Full... The thing to notice about this chart (and what we need to watch) is that the wind is coming from the NNE or NE. The event people are concerning themselves with (1952) was more of a straight N or NNE. If this comes off as shown it could actually push more surges against the English coastline. However. in mitigation, it will not produce the tidal surge to the NE of Scotland, that was caused by the low tracking down from Iceland and was such a part of the earlier event.. It does require watching though! MIA

That would be great! If it's over your house, that means it's not over my house. So I'm crossing my fingers for you! I'm also hoping that the models are correct about the settled period which is predicted to follow next week, because you'll need a few days to get your roof repaired. You might want to think about hiring a generator because you probably won't have any power. We lost power for six days in October 1987 with part of the roof off and a tree resting on the car.

Very unsettled remains the name of the game at the moment with some very wet and windy weather on the cards. So with plenty going on I'll attempt to keep this as succinct as possible. The NH profile (rather speaks for itself) and the surface analysis at midnight As can be seen storm Ali is poised to the south west and it;s tracking north east with the heavy rain and strengthening winds already into N. Ireland. The rain will progress across Scotland during the morning clearing many areas by early afternoon but not northern Scotland which will remain quite wet until tonight. The band of rain associated with the cold front will also track south east during the day. But the main problem will be the wind and this will be at it's strongest across N. Ireland and central and southern Scotland with gusts in the region of 75 mph possible and still strong on either side of this belt, These should ease later but it will remain windy across northern Scotland, Elsewhere , apart from the patchy rain on the front, broken cloud and relatively warm. So by the evening Ali is well out of the way but with low pressure still adjacent rain and windy weather persists in northern Scotland but complications occur further south as another pulse of rain tracks east along the waving front and starts impacting the south west by late evening. This continues to track east during the night and though Thursday morning effecting the south west and central southern England before a more organized and deepening wave arrives with more widespread rain by the middle of Thursday afternoon which spreads north. Not particularly relevant but still relatively warm south of the front. By midnight Friday the wave is 983mb just off the north east coast resulting in the UK being in a showery and blustery north westerly through Friday and a very cool day. (Exeter making hay with the troughs once again) On Saturday the gfs this morning is not a million miles away from the fax chart posted last evening so we are looking at rain creeping into the south west by early evening. Opinions still differ on the precise position and intensity of the low on Sunday but we looking at a wet and very wind period whatever but this the gfs take on things And to end with the NH profile at T120

Mmm not sure where your summer returns stems from, the high pressure will be ridging through under chilly uppers, frost likely and suppressed temps, and none of the models showing a significant warm up next week.

With all the eventful weather that’s likely to come with Autumn showing more of itself, will be locking this fairly shortly and unravel a new thread to continue your discussions of the charts. (New thread):

Hi John, just back from a long trip out to Vancouver, so just checking up on things back home. Had a chat this morning with our portal forecast providers for resort and their thoughts on the track of the Sunday storm are very much undecided at this stage but are aware of its potential to produce some stormy conditions into the Low countries and Northern Germany. At this stage only the passage of the storm will produce changes here in the Alps, where currently, its very benign and warm. One thing they are sure on is a strong rise of pressure over Western Europe by mid -week, similar to that shown on the latest UKMO model as indicated by you and Nick. Hope all is well at home. C

Some people are concerned that there might be a hurricane coming....don't worry, there isn't...... The winds over the central UK are only shown to be gusting up to 75mph....

Wind gusts look pretty devastating for the SE on the 0z GFS This is after giving some other areas of the UK a battering a few hours earlier

Relative AAM tendency still running a positive gradient, and ocean temps out west will be conducive to low pressure development as others have mentioned. Factor in a fragile looking jet (some impact of low solar?) and we have a recipe for sharp swings. AAM tendency will not favour a flat pattern, so ridging very much in the mix...and consequently also systems within troughs are likely to develop well, especially if of tropical origin. It's all pretty good watching....especially as September is often a rather quiet month for weather watching. Skimming a few of the other threads I'm left of the same opinion as others, namely that early signs for the winter season ahead are anything but dull looking. The vortex looks likely to be slow in taking off....solar factors are in favour, eQBO is holding on by its finger tips, ENSO is neutral to slightly positive (better profile than last year probably) and the huge melt of ice on the European side of the arctic may favour significant blocking through the autumn right where we might want it to promote snow and cold build up over Russia. Very early days, but despite a statistical correlation for a lower probably of a SSW this season compared to last other drivers may work effectively to produce a good season. Still waiting for rain here, but I dont think it will be far off now. Summer at an end even in the SW.

(1) October C.E.T. averages and extremes 20.2 ... warmest day, 1st 1985 20.1 ... second warmest day, 1st 2011 13.3 ... warmest Oct 2001 13.1 ... second warmest Oct 2005 13.0 ... third warmest Octs, 1969 and 2006 12.9 ... fifth warmest Oct, 1995 12.8 ... sixth warmest Oct 1921 12.7 ... seventh warmest Oct and warmest of 19th century 1831 12.6 ... eighth warmest Octs 1959, 2011 12.5 ... tenth warmest Octs 1968, 2013, 2014 12.4 ... 13th warmest Oct 2017 12.3 ... tied 14th and warnest of 18th century 1731 (with 1811) 12.1 and 12.2 ... have never occurred in all 359 years 12.0 ... only occurrence was 1818 (16th warmest) 11.9 ... 1990 (from here down to coldest months, occurrences including ties before 1981 are not listed) 11.8 ... 11.7 ... 1989, 1996 11.6 ... 2009 11.5 ... 11.4 ... mean 2001-2017 11.3 ... 11.2 ... 11.1 ... 1984 11.0 ... mean 1991-2017 and 1988-2017 ... ... 1985, 1986, 2015 10.9 ... mean 1986-2015 ... ... ... 2007, 2016 10.8 ... 10.7 ... mean 1981-2010 ... ... ... 1999 10.6 ... mean 1961-1990 ... ... ... 1998 10.5 ... 1983, 2004 10.4 ... mean 1971-2000 ... ... ... 1988 10.3 ... 2000, 2010 10.2 ... mean 1901-2000 ... ... ... 1991, 1994, 1997 10.1 ... 1982, 2002 10.0 ... 9.9 ... 9.8 ... 9.7 .... mean for all years 1659-2017 ... ... ... 1987, 2008, 2012 9.6 ... 9.5 .... mean 1801-1900 9.4 .... mean 1701-1800 9.3 .... mean 1659-1700 9.2 ... 2003 8.6 ... 1981 8.5 ... 1993 7.8 .... tied 26th coldest Oct, coldest Oct recent past, 1974 and 1992 7.5 .... tied 8th coldest Oct, coldest Oct 20th century 1905 6.9 ... fifth coldest Oct 1896 6.5 .... tied 3rd coldest Octs, 1683 and 1692 6.4 .... second coldest Oct 1817 5.3 .... coldest Oct 1740 0.3 .... coldest day 29th, 1895 (since daily records began in 1772 -- 1740 could have produced a colder day) __________________ _ _ _ Enter your CET forecast by Sunday September 30th at midnight, or with increasing late penalties on the first three days of October. =============================================================================== (2) Optional E.W.P. forecast contest 218.1 mm __ 1903 _ wettest 1766-2017 (Hadley) ... also wettest month of any name 180.3 mm __ 2000 _ wettest 1910-2017 (NCIC series) ... Hadley was 188.0 mm and second after 1903. 100.8 mm __ mean for 1981-2010 96.6 mm __ mean for 1988-2017 37.9 mm ___2016 _ driest 1981-2017 (NCIC series) ... Hadley was 46.0 mm 18.8 mm ___1978 _ driest 1910-2017 (NCIC series) ... Hadley was 17.2 mm __ 8.8 mm __1781 _ driest 1766-2017 (Hadley) ... 1809 and 1784 also drier than 1978 note: for driest October since 1910, 1969 and 1947 were a close 2nd and 3rd in both series. note also: October is the wettest month 1981-2010 although December is wettest 1988-2017. __________________________ _ _ _ add your EWP forecast (in mm) to your CET forecast entry, same deadlines with three hour extensions before late penalties apply.

Stormy then summer returns. This could be volatile weekend but get ready to get the BBQ and shorts on again. Two big stories likely in 5 days.....for very different reasons. BFTP

These runner type systems which deepen rapidly as they cross the UK, historically do the most damage. They can be very, very nasty but brief affairs.

On a lighter note, we have our first Snowfall Spike for Birmingham, rather early I think:)

Settling down very nicely into the start of next week

FV3 at T96, Ouch! ECM at T96, not Ouch! I do wonder if we're maybe missing something on ECM and UKMO due to the 24hr time steps we see, as the timing of this potential event seems a little uncertain.

warm and windy afternoon more like Sandy Lane Barbados than Sandy Lane Cobham walking across the heath !! Leaves and twigs everywhere in the garden.

Strange day, feels warm and there’s plenty of sunshine but it’s blowing a hoolie

but notice how a little storm is developing near the SE. It's one of many options. I looked through the ECM ensembles and there are so many ways this could yet develop. Yes, intensification in the North Sea is perhaps just the favourite, but equally many ensembles have the west coast favoured (earlier intensification), and a few even take the storm through the channel, making it a south coast event. And a few still do not develop the storm at all. The latest GFS is very bad for inland areas of England - the darkest shade is 80mph, well inland: With trees still in full leaf, there's going to be a lot of disruption if it develops like this. Thankfully it's a Sunday night, the quietest part of the week.

Morning all! A bit blustery during the night with a wee spattering of rain. Maybe around one and a half inches since yesterday morning. Relatively calm here, just had another wee bluster passing through. It's not going to be so bad up here, but I have a visitor travelling up from Glasgow by bus today, so that may be quite an interesting journey! Stay safe all, enjoy the storm from indoors!

Yes, I really don't see the point of talking about weather if your just interested in it from a sunbathing point of view, cant think of anything more boring than sitting next to a pool in spain just lying down.

I'm aware I'm chatting to my self here .. I'll get help.. Lastly then, I can see very roughly how the GWO fits in: The GWO framework is similar to the MaddenJulian Oscillation (MJO) (Wheeler and Hendon, 2004) but incorporates midlatitude processes such as momentum transports and mountain/frictional torque events. The GWO is directly related to the variability of atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) and AAM tendency (dAAM/dt) which utilizes the GSDM phase space paradigm (Figure 1), categorized by eight stages (octants), like the MJO but shifted 22.5º. I'll try and get my head around the below another day! If anyone can add anything or set me straight, that would be great!

I think I might have got the earths rotation the wrong way round! - in which case, point 5 makes more sense: Friction Torque (From: http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.225.904&rep=rep1&type=pdf) The friction torque is the torque that is exerted on the earth’s surface due to the frictional force that occurs because of the wind directly above the Earth’s surface moving relative to the solid earth. If there is an net global westerly surface wind (i.e. a surface wind from the west) the atmosphere will speed the earth’s rotation up, transfer angular momentum to the earth, and thus the atmosphere loses angular momentum. Analogously, if there is a net easterly surface wind (i.e. a surface wind from the east), the atmosphere slows down the rotation of the earth and angular momentum is transferred from the earth to the atmosphere That makes more sense... in which case as the earth is a closed system, that means the atmosphere as a whole wants to spend that new angular momentum windfall so we see polewards AM transport and increased westerlies at higher lattitudes to balance things out (?).. While these increased westerly's are ruining my golf it looks like mountain torques to the rescue to re-address the balance and bring the earths rotation speed back up: Mountain Torque is a function of pressure and orography and is the ‘turning force’ exerted due to a difference in pressure across any raised surface on the earth, but most significantly, mountains or mountain massifs. Consider a mountain with a high pressure on the west side of a mountain and low pressure on the east. The pressure system will exert an eastward torque that causes the earth to increase it’s rate of rotation, imparting angular momentum from the atmosphere to the solid earth. The opposite case, where there is higher pressure on the east side of the mountain, will slow the earth’s rotation down, reducing the solid earth’s angular momentum, and imparting it to the atmosphere. As I understand it there is a time period where these negative and positive torques (fluxes) play out, another snippet from the above link below Torques: A torque that increases the angular momentum of the atmosphere to be a positive torque, and one that decreases the angular momentum of the earth to be a negative one. I can see now why the MJO and ENSO and all those shenanigans effect the AAM budget - they polarise the outcome due to persistant surface wind anomalies at the equator.

Caithness was a wet and midgy mess today, very unpleasant indeed. Apparently the Ness was well up, and plenty of other rivers too. The slow recharge of the last 3 weeks is becoming noticeable in the rivers. Strange how unforecastable the wind speeds are, even at such short range.

This is looking very interesting as ECM on board. Extreme wild swings if it comes off. Very deep storm with pretty cool temps, and severe gale force winds.....followed by rapid calm and big warm up. I want this to come off as a weather/climate nutter. BFTP

Reminds of the snow warnings in winter C.S

Husband says it was very still and calm when he got up at 5 but already starting to blow a bit and the clouds are flying east. I really don't like gales from the south, they hit my front windows head on and sooner or later they are going to go

What a windy week this is turning out to be... This is the progression of maximum wind gusts across the country according to the ICON for Thursday and Friday (+40 - +60hrs): I keep looking at this thinking 'That can't be right...' Would be very nasty in the North Sea for a time.

I lived through that night in October 1987 and more importantly here the daytime storm January 1990, and trust me- you don’t want to be under that sting when it happens. We all like weather and storms/snow but when it’s endangering your life or you are scared and hope you’ll live like previous poster highlighted, you wouldn’t be so flippant. Anyway- this is ironically looking more like a January 1990 type storm, incoming from the SW in the morning before zipping through- that storm caused gusts over 100mph on Dartmoor but hopefully it’ll miss the high tide on East coast. But I doubt it worryingly

Gosh, that 18Z GEFS ensemble member No. 1 looks particularly scary! Would definitely get thrown out of the galaxy if that happened. Going to be interesting to see what both the 00Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF show. I suspect that bad boy will still be showing. But who knows! ?

Amber warranted I reckon, heavy foliage, not had a hoolie for a while.. public caught up in benign weather. System is juiced to the max via strong jet, bombing nicely on satellite. Sting jet potential in this one too. Time for shipping forecast :) stay safe if travelling

A day of two halves. The morning was wet and murky but mild with light winds. Afternoon a very pleasant affair with mainly sunny skies and a maximum temperature of 19C, though the wind noticeably picked up late in the afternoon - the prelude to the main story tomorrow, though I notice the automated met office forecast has lowered the maximum gust speed for here compared with earlier this evening.

Very wet in the last 24 hours so rivers now up and all these trapped salmon/ sea trout at the mouths should get up to spawn this autumn.Ground now getting slowly softer and grass getting greener. Mild though at 13c just now Looks as though we will get some equinoxial gales this week and probably followed by the first visible snow on the high tops something I remember a lot in late September over the years.

Big storm GFS keeps showing headed across the UK this weekend looks like containing the remnants of post-tropical cyclone Florence, the U.S. pressure chart shows it off NE seaboard tomorrow - then follow the GFS pressure loop from tomorrow through to Sunday. Remnants of Florence and frontal boundary between tropical and polar air engaging with sharp shortwave trough in the upper westerlies coming out of NE Canada/new Foundland - this serves to deepen the low on the forward side of the trough moving east, also note the steepening thermal boundary through the low ahown by 850mb temps in animation above which will aid in cyclongensis,