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Showing content with the highest reputation on 19/09/18 in all areas

  1. 11 points
    Last but not least - a butterfly! I came out of hibernation early and thought It wouldn't last but the modeling has been fantastic over the last week or so, really enjoyable watching and interesting setups, I really do think that there is going to be a lot of severe weather events in the near future not just here but aaround thee world, very interesting viewing coming up for severe weather fans, of course snow is always number 1 but storms are still a good buzz when they are more than just a breeze that is
  2. 11 points
    Really? It went slap bang over my flat in 1987 and it was horrific! I was petrified, but unlike my neighbours ended up with an intact roof. Wouldn't want to repeat it, or wish it on my worst enemy
  3. 9 points
    Support really gathering pace now for some big convective snow showers N'ly / NE'ly this Autumn.
  4. 9 points
    You truly are nuts! Oct 1987 caused huge destruction and brought significant misery to many. We do NOT want that!
  5. 8 points
    The Met office complaints department should deal with that for you. Though you do need to subscribe to their premium service if you want a sting jet over your house... 🤨
  6. 6 points
    Well if the nasty storm GFS keeps progging for Sunday comes off, EC not as deep and further north but still very windy and wet, at least the models are in unison in bringing a strong ridge of high pressure in on the back of Sunday's system - which may persist throughout next week.
  7. 6 points
    Fifty years ago For some reason the strong winds across the central belt of Scotland today reminded me of the great storm of 1968 that blew much of Glasgow down but tragically killed twenty people. It did Glasgow a favour in one respect in that the appalling housing situation in the city now had to be tackled., Fortunately today's winds are not going to be that strong. I was on a ship anchored at the tail of the bank at Greenock and we were lucky as we dragged our anchor and nearly ended up on Gourock high street. Others were not so lucky as a ship sank close by and the crew drowned. That's the end of this morning's snippet https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1968_Scotland_storm
  8. 5 points
    Sunny raining and windy here too. A fantastic rainbow in the field so will look for the pot of gold later. Some vicious gusts last night about 1.00am has broken open gates and taken several big limbs off several ash trees so on top of keeping an eye on calving cows have had a bit of tridying up to do this morning. Currently squally heavy rain and 12c.
  9. 5 points
    Sky Full... The thing to notice about this chart (and what we need to watch) is that the wind is coming from the NNE or NE. The event people are concerning themselves with (1952) was more of a straight N or NNE. If this comes off as shown it could actually push more surges against the English coastline. However. in mitigation, it will not produce the tidal surge to the NE of Scotland, that was caused by the low tracking down from Iceland and was such a part of the earlier event.. It does require watching though! MIA
  10. 5 points
    That would be great! If it's over your house, that means it's not over my house. 😀 So I'm crossing my fingers for you! I'm also hoping that the models are correct about the settled period which is predicted to follow next week, because you'll need a few days to get your roof repaired. You might want to think about hiring a generator because you probably won't have any power. We lost power for six days in October 1987 with part of the roof off and a tree resting on the car.
  11. 5 points
    Very unsettled remains the name of the game at the moment with some very wet and windy weather on the cards. So with plenty going on I'll attempt to keep this as succinct as possible. The NH profile (rather speaks for itself) and the surface analysis at midnight As can be seen storm Ali is poised to the south west and it;s tracking north east with the heavy rain and strengthening winds already into N. Ireland. The rain will progress across Scotland during the morning clearing many areas by early afternoon but not northern Scotland which will remain quite wet until tonight. The band of rain associated with the cold front will also track south east during the day. But the main problem will be the wind and this will be at it's strongest across N. Ireland and central and southern Scotland with gusts in the region of 75 mph possible and still strong on either side of this belt, These should ease later but it will remain windy across northern Scotland, Elsewhere , apart from the patchy rain on the front, broken cloud and relatively warm. So by the evening Ali is well out of the way but with low pressure still adjacent rain and windy weather persists in northern Scotland but complications occur further south as another pulse of rain tracks east along the waving front and starts impacting the south west by late evening. This continues to track east during the night and though Thursday morning effecting the south west and central southern England before a more organized and deepening wave arrives with more widespread rain by the middle of Thursday afternoon which spreads north. Not particularly relevant but still relatively warm south of the front. By midnight Friday the wave is 983mb just off the north east coast resulting in the UK being in a showery and blustery north westerly through Friday and a very cool day. (Exeter making hay with the troughs once again) On Saturday the gfs this morning is not a million miles away from the fax chart posted last evening so we are looking at rain creeping into the south west by early evening. Opinions still differ on the precise position and intensity of the low on Sunday but we looking at a wet and very wind period whatever but this the gfs take on things And to end with the NH profile at T120
  12. 4 points
    Hi John, just back from a long trip out to Vancouver, so just checking up on things back home. Had a chat this morning with our portal forecast providers for resort and their thoughts on the track of the Sunday storm are very much undecided at this stage but are aware of its potential to produce some stormy conditions into the Low countries and Northern Germany. At this stage only the passage of the storm will produce changes here in the Alps, where currently, its very benign and warm. One thing they are sure on is a strong rise of pressure over Western Europe by mid -week, similar to that shown on the latest UKMO model as indicated by you and Nick. Hope all is well at home. C
  13. 4 points
    Some people are concerned that there might be a hurricane coming....don't worry, there isn't...... 🐠 The winds over the central UK are only shown to be gusting up to 75mph....
  14. 4 points
    Wind gusts look pretty devastating for the SE on the 0z GFS This is after giving some other areas of the UK a battering a few hours earlier
  15. 4 points
    Relative AAM tendency still running a positive gradient, and ocean temps out west will be conducive to low pressure development as others have mentioned. Factor in a fragile looking jet (some impact of low solar?) and we have a recipe for sharp swings. AAM tendency will not favour a flat pattern, so ridging very much in the mix...and consequently also systems within troughs are likely to develop well, especially if of tropical origin. It's all pretty good watching....especially as September is often a rather quiet month for weather watching. Skimming a few of the other threads I'm left of the same opinion as others, namely that early signs for the winter season ahead are anything but dull looking. The vortex looks likely to be slow in taking off....solar factors are in favour, eQBO is holding on by its finger tips, ENSO is neutral to slightly positive (better profile than last year probably) and the huge melt of ice on the European side of the arctic may favour significant blocking through the autumn right where we might want it to promote snow and cold build up over Russia. Very early days, but despite a statistical correlation for a lower probably of a SSW this season compared to last other drivers may work effectively to produce a good season. Still waiting for rain here, but I dont think it will be far off now. Summer at an end even in the SW.
  16. 3 points
    Morning all! A bit blustery during the night with a wee spattering of rain. Maybe around one and a half inches since yesterday morning. Relatively calm here, just had another wee bluster passing through. It's not going to be so bad up here, but I have a visitor travelling up from Glasgow by bus today, so that may be quite an interesting journey! Stay safe all, enjoy the storm from indoors!
  17. 3 points
    Yes, I really don't see the point of talking about weather if your just interested in it from a sunbathing point of view, cant think of anything more boring than sitting next to a pool in spain just lying down.
  18. 3 points
    I'm aware I'm chatting to my self here .. I'll get help.. Lastly then, I can see very roughly how the GWO fits in: The GWO framework is similar to the MaddenJulian Oscillation (MJO) (Wheeler and Hendon, 2004) but incorporates midlatitude processes such as momentum transports and mountain/frictional torque events. The GWO is directly related to the variability of atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) and AAM tendency (dAAM/dt) which utilizes the GSDM phase space paradigm (Figure 1), categorized by eight stages (octants), like the MJO but shifted 22.5º. I'll try and get my head around the below another day! If anyone can add anything or set me straight, that would be great!
  19. 3 points
    I think I might have got the earths rotation the wrong way round! - in which case, point 5 makes more sense: Friction Torque (From: http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi= The friction torque is the torque that is exerted on the earth’s surface due to the frictional force that occurs because of the wind directly above the Earth’s surface moving relative to the solid earth. If there is an net global westerly surface wind (i.e. a surface wind from the west) the atmosphere will speed the earth’s rotation up, transfer angular momentum to the earth, and thus the atmosphere loses angular momentum. Analogously, if there is a net easterly surface wind (i.e. a surface wind from the east), the atmosphere slows down the rotation of the earth and angular momentum is transferred from the earth to the atmosphere That makes more sense... in which case as the earth is a closed system, that means the atmosphere as a whole wants to spend that new angular momentum windfall so we see polewards AM transport and increased westerlies at higher lattitudes to balance things out (?).. While these increased westerly's are ruining my golf it looks like mountain torques to the rescue to re-address the balance and bring the earths rotation speed back up: Mountain Torque is a function of pressure and orography and is the ‘turning force’ exerted due to a difference in pressure across any raised surface on the earth, but most significantly, mountains or mountain massifs. Consider a mountain with a high pressure on the west side of a mountain and low pressure on the east. The pressure system will exert an eastward torque that causes the earth to increase it’s rate of rotation, imparting angular momentum from the atmosphere to the solid earth. The opposite case, where there is higher pressure on the east side of the mountain, will slow the earth’s rotation down, reducing the solid earth’s angular momentum, and imparting it to the atmosphere. As I understand it there is a time period where these negative and positive torques (fluxes) play out, another snippet from the above link below Torques: A torque that increases the angular momentum of the atmosphere to be a positive torque, and one that decreases the angular momentum of the earth to be a negative one. I can see now why the MJO and ENSO and all those shenanigans effect the AAM budget - they polarise the outcome due to persistant surface wind anomalies at the equator.
  20. 3 points
    Caithness was a wet and midgy mess today, very unpleasant indeed. Apparently the Ness was well up, and plenty of other rivers too. The slow recharge of the last 3 weeks is becoming noticeable in the rivers. Strange how unforecastable the wind speeds are, even at such short range.
  21. 3 points
    This is looking very interesting as ECM on board. Extreme wild swings if it comes off. Very deep storm with pretty cool temps, and severe gale force winds.....followed by rapid calm and big warm up. I want this to come off as a weather/climate nutter. BFTP
  22. 3 points
    Reminds of the snow warnings in winter😂 C.S
  23. 2 points
    15.1 to the 18th 0.9 above the 61 to 90 average 0.5 above the 81 to 10 average __________________________________ Current high this month 17.4 to the 2nd & 3rd Current low this month 14.6 to the 15th
  24. 2 points
    Gosh, that 18Z GEFS ensemble member No. 1 looks particularly scary! 💨 Would definitely get thrown out of the galaxy if that happened. Going to be interesting to see what both the 00Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF show. I suspect that bad boy will still be showing. But who knows! 💁‍♂️
  25. 2 points
    Very wet in the last 24 hours so rivers now up and all these trapped salmon/ sea trout at the mouths should get up to spawn this autumn.Ground now getting slowly softer and grass getting greener. Mild though at 13c just now Looks as though we will get some equinoxial gales this week and probably followed by the first visible snow on the high tops something I remember a lot in late September over the years.
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