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Showing most liked content on 19/09/18 in all areas

  1. 11 likes
    Last but not least - a butterfly! I came out of hibernation early and thought It wouldn't last but the modeling has been fantastic over the last week or so, really enjoyable watching and interesting setups, I really do think that there is going to be a lot of severe weather events in the near future not just here but aaround thee world, very interesting viewing coming up for severe weather fans, of course snow is always number 1 but storms are still a good buzz when they are more than just a breeze that is
  2. 10 likes
    I'd like to apologise for my comment earlier. I did judge too soon. I guess I had seen so many people recklessly ignoring warnings for no good reason in Florence and had suffered as a result and just presumed this was the same. I would not wish death on anybody, obviously. Of course if she had been warned and there was no good reason for not leaving then that's one thing. But it appears in this case there may have been other factors that lead to her staying. I know the mods asked for no arguing on the matter but felt it right to apologise.
  3. 10 likes
    And there we have it. I don't know of many people who check the weather warnings when on holiday. She probably thought she was ok where she was etc or simply didn't know. But in any case there's some heartless comments about today. It's not as if she was out swimming in the open sea etc and putting emergency services at risk. She's now dead at the bottom of a cliff in a caravan what an awful way to die. And yet some on here feel it's ok to say they have zero sympathy. Well it speaks more about what type of person they are than this poor woman. Seriously ground my gears this afternoon.
  4. 9 likes
    Not being funny but does anyone know why this woman was in the caravan etc. Regardless if she didn't listen to the warnings someone has still lost their life. Have some decorum instead of being so bloody heartless. She may have no family she may have had mobility issues etc or she may not have taken the warnings seriously. But either way it's distasteful a couple of these comments and I don't care who roasts me for this post.
  5. 4 likes
    Relative AAM tendency still running a positive gradient, and ocean temps out west will be conducive to low pressure development as others have mentioned. Factor in a fragile looking jet (some impact of low solar?) and we have a recipe for sharp swings. AAM tendency will not favour a flat pattern, so ridging very much in the mix...and consequently also systems within troughs are likely to develop well, especially if of tropical origin. It's all pretty good watching....especially as September is often a rather quiet month for weather watching. Skimming a few of the other threads I'm left of the same opinion as others, namely that early signs for the winter season ahead are anything but dull looking. The vortex looks likely to be slow in taking off....solar factors are in favour, eQBO is holding on by its finger tips, ENSO is neutral to slightly positive (better profile than last year probably) and the huge melt of ice on the European side of the arctic may favour significant blocking through the autumn right where we might want it to promote snow and cold build up over Russia. Very early days, but despite a statistical correlation for a lower probably of a SSW this season compared to last other drivers may work effectively to produce a good season. Still waiting for rain here, but I dont think it will be far off now. Summer at an end even in the SW.
  6. 3 likes
    warm and windy afternoon more like Sandy Lane Barbados than Sandy Lane Cobham walking across the heath !! Leaves and twigs everywhere in the garden.
  7. 3 likes
    I think I might have got the earths rotation the wrong way round! - in which case, point 5 makes more sense: Friction Torque (From: http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.225.904&rep=rep1&type=pdf) The friction torque is the torque that is exerted on the earth’s surface due to the frictional force that occurs because of the wind directly above the Earth’s surface moving relative to the solid earth. If there is an net global westerly surface wind (i.e. a surface wind from the west) the atmosphere will speed the earth’s rotation up, transfer angular momentum to the earth, and thus the atmosphere loses angular momentum. Analogously, if there is a net easterly surface wind (i.e. a surface wind from the east), the atmosphere slows down the rotation of the earth and angular momentum is transferred from the earth to the atmosphere That makes more sense... in which case as the earth is a closed system, that means the atmosphere as a whole wants to spend that new angular momentum windfall so we see polewards AM transport and increased westerlies at higher lattitudes to balance things out (?).. While these increased westerly's are ruining my golf it looks like mountain torques to the rescue to re-address the balance and bring the earths rotation speed back up: Mountain Torque is a function of pressure and orography and is the ‘turning force’ exerted due to a difference in pressure across any raised surface on the earth, but most significantly, mountains or mountain massifs. Consider a mountain with a high pressure on the west side of a mountain and low pressure on the east. The pressure system will exert an eastward torque that causes the earth to increase it’s rate of rotation, imparting angular momentum from the atmosphere to the solid earth. The opposite case, where there is higher pressure on the east side of the mountain, will slow the earth’s rotation down, reducing the solid earth’s angular momentum, and imparting it to the atmosphere. As I understand it there is a time period where these negative and positive torques (fluxes) play out, another snippet from the above link below Torques: A torque that increases the angular momentum of the atmosphere to be a positive torque, and one that decreases the angular momentum of the earth to be a negative one. I can see now why the MJO and ENSO and all those shenanigans effect the AAM budget - they polarise the outcome due to persistant surface wind anomalies at the equator.
  8. 2 likes
  9. 2 likes
    Yes very windy, worried that my melons might get detached
  10. 2 likes
    Not insensitive at all. The warnings are issued for a reason. If you choose to ignore them and put your life in danger then my sympathy is zero. I only hope nothing bad befalls those having to clear up after.
  11. 2 likes
    a blustery day out, if this continues into October then there will be no fog, although someone in the MOD thread mentioned that snow is already showing up on the models for next month, his username had blizzard in it though
  12. 2 likes
    The Northerly in GFS FI the other day has popped up on the ECM at 240, a proper retrogression underway here.
  13. 2 likes
    Amber warranted I reckon, heavy foliage, not had a hoolie for a while.. public caught up in benign weather. System is juiced to the max via strong jet, bombing nicely on satellite. Sting jet potential in this one too. Time for shipping forecast :) stay safe if travelling
  14. 1 like
    This is MSM at its best!
  15. 1 like
    I would have thought that a moderators role would be an impartial one, personally, if it was me, I would have deleted the post. What kind of people think it's ok to write unkind things about someone who died so tragically? I think your Rules need a bit of humanity injected into them.
  16. 1 like
    ARPEGE showing sub-zero temps for Wales with snow in the mid-afternoon on Sunday! Crazy! But we know that it's probably an outlier.
  17. 1 like
    I think that tomorrow's system has come slightly out of the blue. It's only the past day or so that is has shown as deepening so rapidly. I suspect that if it deepens as much as some models are showing and takes that specific track then this would make Sunday's system less likely to be as deep as shown on the GFS. If you look at the GFS v ECM at 12z Saturday, the ECM has a much stronger low over Scandinavia, whereas the GFS has already pushed it further NNE. Small differences like this at a short range make a bigger difference going forward....
  18. 1 like
  19. 1 like
    ECM kills it off as well. So chances pretty small.
  20. 1 like
  21. 1 like
    Well the arp and the icon bringing damaging winds across the middle of the country the icon a tad more South on par with doris in these parts
  22. 1 like
    I had the hail too at the exact same times, but alas, it is now gone.
  23. 1 like
  24. 1 like
    True for south England at 96h but 105h has the first large shade of 140 knot I've seen in any of the runs so far on. The intensity is still there but seems a little more localised around the East coast. The trend will indeed be interesting.
  25. 1 like
    Well, the high RES models are now trying to pick up on tomorrow the met Office issued a wind warning for tomorrow afternoon the icon and the Arpege have this and I'm scratching my head here because the GFS is having non of it.. These are max wind gusts up to 6am Friday morning... I'm certain the Arpege and icon have a bias towards over doing wind gusts.. What's more concerning is the approach.. I've been watching this little feature go from nothing to semi major
  26. 1 like
    Indeed, as Surrey mentioned, the Low Pressure system for Sunday on the GFS 12Z looks a little less grumpy. Would still be some strong winds for places, particularly on the Low’s Northern flank, but certainly less intense than it was on the previous run:
  27. 1 like
    Yeah, I saw that too. Thursday into Friday also had heavy rain, then thunder and lightning, then the hail that yours shows. Almost worth staying up for. It's gone now though.
  28. 1 like
  29. 1 like
    I'd love to see your melons lass, are they ripe yet? Really mild here too but a bit cloudy, 22c....May get the old BBQ going later on.
  30. 1 like
    Apple Store near me got robbed. I have to go and give a statement. I'm an iWitness.
  31. 1 like
    My brain hurts! But thanks for the info, Sam...
  32. 1 like
    Keep going SMS... I am learning with you! Are you a member at Cirencester? MIA
  33. 1 like
    Can you remember these, before the ITV weather. i worked at ITV at the time as a forecaster, briefing the presenters and creating the graphics. It was part of our job to chose which one to use. It should reflect the weather forecast, although sometimes we just chose our favourites, and at weekends were a little bit silly. Windy coat man was a big fave and umbrella woman. All the lightning ones got banned as they were a risk to people with epilepsy. Some were only allowed to be shown around the Late weathers as they were too scary. The office used to get lots of phone calls and comments, some quite deranged about these idents. Probably the most remembered set from PowerGen
  34. 1 like
    Around 18:30 near the wash and 19:00 within the Welland, Nene and Ouse tidal reaches, and then 20:30-21:00 around Yarmouth and Lowestoft. Very worrying.
  35. 1 like
    1821 at Hull on Sunday. https://www.tide-forecast.com/locations/Hull-England/tides/latest
  36. 1 like
    Storm there again on the 18z GFS - an absolute corker!
  37. 1 like
    Models going for a general cool down from Friday, marked in the north, courtesy of colder uppers from the north - next week up in the air, if heights build in from the east and over the UK, we could see some very chilly minima and under what won't be especially warm uppers, maxima will probably only hit average figures, given the sun is weakening now.
  38. 1 like
    Day 2 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 19 Sep 2018 - 05:59 UTC Thu 20 Sep 2018 ISSUED 20:05 UTC Tue 18 Sep 2018 ISSUED BY: Dan A deep area of low pressure will track northeastwards from the Atlantic across NW Scotland on Wednesday, with very strong winds on its southern flank. Cold air wrapping around the rear side atop warm SSTs will steepen lapse rates and generate a few hundred J/kg CAPE. This, within a strongly-sheared environment, suggests some sporadic lightning will be possible as numerous showers move through the area. Strong gusts of wind will be possible with the most intense cores. Farther south, strong unidirectional shear (and limited convective depth) will lead to line segments along the cold front, but the lightning risk is considered very low. http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-09-19
  39. 1 like
    GFS continues with the very stormy output for Sunday. The model does often overblow low pressure, if it comes off as modelled then it’ll be very nasty and rather dangerous.
  40. 1 like
    Here's the forecast based on the 12z GFS Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg) 15.0C to the 18th... +0.5 (17.8: +3.9) 15.1C to the 19th... +0.6 (16.9: +3.3) 15.1C to the 20th... +0.6 (13.4: -0.6) 14.8C to the 21st... +0.4 (10.7: -3.0) 14.7C to the 22nd... +0.3 (12.2: -1.6) 14.6C to the 23rd... +0.3 (12.9: -0.6) 14.4C to the 24th... +0.1 (8.6: -4.2) 14.2C to the 25th... +0.0 (10.1: -2.6) 14.1C to the 26th... -0.1 (10.9: -1.9) 14.0C to the 27th... -0.1 (11.6: -1.3) Even though we don't manage a 4 day period below 10C, we still have a a proper cool spell coming up, with a chance of dipping into the 10 coldest days for the 24th (<8.8C required). That's still a long way off the overall record of 6.7C set in 1871. Speaking of 1871, the week ending the 25th averaged a cool 7.9C. We haven't had a single September day that cool since 1988!
  41. 1 like
    Sleet and snow showers over high ground - recurrent theme. so an extremely appropriate thread title!
  42. 1 like
    It's probably something to do with Manghut lol This years naming has already gone mammatus up. I'm lost with it all to be honest.
  43. 1 like
    if the GFS is correct, walk out sunday morning and you'll end up landing somewhere near Denmark!
  44. 1 like
    I think it can happen, but not often, when there is uncertainty over the precise conditions over the UK locally (and a storm or lack of it is one such instance) but the larger scale evolution is less uncertain, and I wonder if that is what we have here. Let's put it this way, I'm more confident about next weeks settled spell than I am about the storm, at the moment.
  45. 1 like
    Friday is looking very interesting now and it’s not disappearing. The coldest 500mb temperatures of the season. Yet another convective Friday.
  46. 1 like
    This is a worrying storm beginning to develop! Wow
  47. 1 like
    Love this thread, nice to discuss the climate without having man made global warming rammed down your throat. It's only logical to look at other factors that could affect our weather, and solar minimum or maximum is certainly a contributing factor. Just so happens we are indeed in a low sunspot cycle, and colder snowier winters should become more prevalent in the next 10yrs if you go on previous cycles.
  48. 1 like
    I think the discussion about low-sunspot years that fell between the peaks in 19th and 20th century is more or less irrelevant to this discussion since what we are really talking about here is the similarity between the longer-term downturn of the Dalton and the current situation. We are probably around 1819 in terms of an analogue to the Dalton, following the weak 1815-16 peak. So there's a fairly good chance if these patterns are matching up that a very cold winter such as 1820 or 1823 is in our near future. Whether it comes this winter or one of the next few is really guesswork, but other factors at play suggest at least some optimism for this winter. The central arctic and more recently central North America have turned anomalously cold, a signal that often leads to a cold winter in the plains states and Midwest. If the next ridge downstream favours about 40-50 W then western Europe could see intervals of cold trough upper level steering patterns. If also the jet within that roller coaster is depressed somewhat by the weaker solar forcing, then the blocking episodes could be potent like they were late last winter. I ran part of my analogue technique a bit early (normally I do this LRF for winter around mid-October), and I certainly see better than average chances for cold in all of the main winter months, with the mean of analogues running a full degree below the overall mean of the data set. As others have stated, the blend of low solar and background AGW signals is difficult to model or address with analogue forecasting, and the common sense answer is that you're going to be dealing with two opposing stresses on the same complex mechanism. It should in theory lead to volatile conditions. I would argue we have seen this in slow motion for many years now, perhaps if climate was a faster running system we would notice it more easily, but we keep going from one extreme to the other, as for example record cold in early March, record warmth in mid April of this past year, or the contrast from March 2013 to summer 2013. One time when the feedback processes lock in some major cold will become more sustained, I think it almost set in this past March but didn't quite set to record breaking proportions. A plunge into record cold closer to the minimum point for the radiation balance (late Jan into early Feb factoring in advection) might be required to create sufficient snow on ground for the feedback loop to lock in.
  49. 1 like
    Did I sleep longer than I thought and miss something?
  50. 1 like
    My PhD studies are specifically on the topic of Arctic coastal erosion - so finally something I'm sort of an expert in! Just to be very clear, erosion rates are accelerating across much of the Arctic (not everywhere) and and the majority of this is very much tied in with sea ice loss, ocean warming, increased extreme rainfall events, etc. When you have soil that held together by ice, or large bodies of ice within the soil, it loses cohesion very quickly when the ice melts and can erode at incredible rates (>40m/year in some areas). As for why it matters, you only have to look at the massive carbon stores within the permafrost to understand why melting and liberating that carbon can have a global influence. I can go into as much detail as you'd like on this so feel free to ask some questions, but climate change is absolutely affecting erosion rates along Arctic coasts. Attached is an image from field work last year near Tuktoyaktuk. There's a lot of ice in them thar hills!
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