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Showing content with the highest reputation on 14/09/18 in all areas

  1. Met Office issue a warning that includes western parts of mainland UK and right on cue, GFS 06z adjusts furthest west of any run from that model so far. Serious hat on - the MO are right to include western UK as there's not only hurricane Helene but also subtropical storm Joyce consider as well when it comes to the track that this bout of unusually strong winds (for the time of year at least) will take. Longer-term, the signal for a notable build of high pressure from the southwest keeps turning up, but the details are varying a lot; With only a weak, stuttering t
    15 points
  2. ECM 192 >> 216 >>240 A very persistent theme being modelled for the past 48 hours with some form of atlantic ridge- very inlike last september - again indicitive of a weakened jet flow... Cmon- this is our year..
    6 points
  3. Irrespective of whether we get a warmer period towards the end of the month, I am still waiting to see how far east the track of storm Helene will get, and what strength the winds will be. This is what is currently showing for the 18th September: ECM UKMO GFS GEM Helene is confidently shown to be situated in the western approaches and this will be of interest to anyone contemplating a ferry trip to or from Ireland or northern France around this time. My bet is that there will be cancelled services. Anyone who lives in 'the west' is also bound
    6 points
  4. My favorite "hurricane" video ever!
    5 points
  5. We would be screaming the place down if these charts was showing up in winter,pv displaced well west of Greenland
    4 points
  6. Following a generally warm first half, the second half of the Ecm 12z turns distinctly chilly and more autumnal with some cold nights, especially further north, cold enough for a touch of frost in places.?
    4 points
  7. In the past, a parallel GFS has been the same model being trialled with an upgrade of some sort. Not so this time, it's actually a trial of a new model chosen to succeed the GFS called the FV3 (still presumably fed with GFS input data) - although it will still be called GFS if/when it takes over - the GFS is dead, long live the GFS! However, I suspect that the difference between models is a secondary uncertainty here, and the difference between the two runs is due to the actual significant uncertainty over the track of Helene, and over the intensity when and if it hits the UK.
    4 points
  8. Excellent illustration of the regional variation with this pattern
    4 points
  9. Back from a lovely holiday in Devon,just outside Honiton,looked up,saw 3 Red Kites,first sighting ever,nice end to proceedings.
    3 points
  10. Not too sure to be honest. I had a feeling back in February/March that last winter may have been the curtain raiser to a run of colder winters in the coming years, similar to how 2008/2009 was. The ECM seasonal run has certainly opened my eyes somewhat as I had largely written off this coming winter. I have read that next winter may see all of the large scale teleconnections align favourably so it's possible 2019/2020 winter may have a good run at that 62/63 style season? I've heard mumblings about the 2019/2020 winter for a few years now, so maybe there's something in it?
    3 points
  11. Some amazing images of Hurricane Florence https://twistedsifter.com/2018/09/hurricane-florence-from-space-hq-gallery/
    3 points
  12. Further to Singularity's excellent post above, the GFS 0.25 is showing this for 0200hrs 18th September: Max Wind Gusts: The storm is shown tracking just off the west coast of Ireland, albeit giving that coast a battering. However, the GFS 0.25 Parallel is showing this just six hours later: Average Wind Speeds: Max Wind Gusts: The latter 2 charts indicate sustained winds in my location at up to 70mph and gusts at or over 90mph. At this time of year, these conditions might be quite, if not very, disruptive. It is becoming important to kno
    3 points
  13. No offence intended Newberryone but your saying ‘Indian Summer’ yet earlier today there were posts of ‘ low after low’.... whats changed or what makes tonight’s charts more reliable?
    3 points
  14. The south Irish Sea/west Wales is the favoured track for Helene with this evening's ecm which could give severe gales for a time in the south west and gales across south Wales and the Midlands with the Atlantic dominated by the upper trough.But there is bags of time for adjustments to be made.
    3 points
  15. another pleasant evening in superbia , was almost like a Californian evening with the beautiful golden light !
    2 points
  16. Looking at the Gfs 12z operational, there's very warm low to mid 20's celsius for a time next week further s / e and then a bit further ahead another summery spell for a time as high pressure builds in..nice☺???
    2 points
  17. The difference between the GFS OP and GFS FV3 para is striking. Likely it's due to the different handling of the trough to the west, but treatment of convection with ex-Helene may be an issue as well. Here is the pressure of the PV (potential vorticity) =2 surface T120 VT 12 UTC 18Z September. The filament of PV extending from the large scale trough west and north of the UK and curving back to the Azores is key to the evolution of ex-Helene and is handled differently by FV3 along with the trough-ridge itself which appears sharper and less progressive in the OP run consistent with the weaker d
    2 points
  18. The z500 geopotential anomaly charts are distorted by the fact that geopotential heights are proportional to temperature - with a warmer arctic there is a positive anomaly. Better to use sea level pressure - probably shows what many people want to see with regards near surface flow but the anomalies are not particularly dramatic - With regard to the stratosphere, it may have potential for wave 1 propagation from the eurasian side to the stratospheric Aleutian high giving strat vortex displacement. Just to add, looking at the earlier charts in the past year this completely misse
    2 points
  19. Thanks Paul, it was from a coldie as I expected! As mb above has said, that run was an unsettled outlier.
    2 points
  20. Understatement of the year award goes to ........................ the storm is moving v slowly and the coast is not straight n/s or e/w .......... going to see some pretty awful videos over the next 36/48 hours ........
    2 points
  21. That’s one big hot ear
    2 points
  22. Overcast day today with occasional showers and a brisk W/SW wind. Max temperature of 15C. Also saw the first geese today, though just a mini-skein of about 20 individuals. Interesting to see them already as our resident house martins are still around - usually there is a gap between them leaving and the first geese being seen.
    2 points
  23. Strong sense of deja vu here as the POL was brought up in the discussion on the OPI back in 2014. At almost the same time the concept of the Taymyr Circulation Anomaly came to the fore in the paper October circulation precursors of the wintertime Arctic Oscillation (Kryjov 2014). This highlighted the correlation between Taymyr October geopotential anomalies and the following winter AO, but it seems the paper is still paywalled. At the time an arbitrary point was used to investigate this correlation (74.5°N 104°E) using 500hPa geopotential. However, the author co-wrote a follow-up paper Pr
    2 points
  24. *** ALERT - TODAY IS A DATE RECORD BREAKER FOR THE STRATOSPHERE *** Weakest vortex ever for 13th September @4.3M/S ( 0.2 m/s below the 2001 record of 4.5M/S ) data source ERA interim. Is this significant? - in isolation with a bandwith on todays date of 6M/S between the record strongest & weakest this its significance isnt as highly correlated to winter than say if we were here on November 13th- However today could be a signpost of whats to come this winter....
    2 points
  25. Yellow warnings are now out for Storm Helene she is expected to arrive during late Monday and into Tuesday Regions affected by this warning North West England Northern Ireland SW Scotland, Lothian Borders South West England Strathclyde Wales Between 18:00 Mon 17th and 12:00 Tue 18th Storm Helene is expected to bring a period of very strong winds to western parts of the UK late Monday and for a time on Tuesday. What to expect Injuries and danger to life from flying debris are possible. Road, rail, air and ferry services m
    1 point
  26. What happend yo your neighbours is a bummer ?
    1 point
  27. In America, it’s called fake wind, people,fake wind.
    1 point
  28. 1 point
  29. The ecm is a cold outlier on the ens (London) ecm mean at 192-240 shows the Azures high influencing the weather from the SW esp the south and southeast of the uk the latest cpc 500 mb outlook reflects this 6-10 and 8-14 day anomoly's. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php
    1 point
  30. Are there any webcams or streams?
    1 point
  31. Brett Adair on Calolina beach. https://livestormchasing.com/map
    1 point
  32. Sunny Sheffield down to 14.3 -1.0C below normal Rainfall unchanged.
    1 point
  33. Here's the forecast based on the 06z GFS Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg) 14.7C to the 14th... -0.1 (13.7: +0.0) 14.7C to the 15th... -0.1 (13.8: +0.2) 14.8C to the 16th... +0.1 (16.1 +2.4) 14.8C to the 17th... +0.2 (15.1 +1.3) 15.0C to the 18th... +0.4 (17.9 +4.0) 15.2C to the 19th... +0.7 (19.5 +5.9) 15.3C to the 20th... +0.8 (18.1 +4.1) [Daily Mean Record High = 18.4C from 1947] 15.3C to the 21st... +0.8 (13.9 +0.2) 15.2C to the 22nd... +0.8 (14.8 +1.0) 15.3C to the 23rd... +0.9 (16.7 +3.2) Back to a warm phase of the month
    1 point
  34. I don't think you can be that specific TBH when talking about the effects of solar min so wouldn't worry just yet
    1 point
  35. I keep seeing analogue forecasts being produced but I can't seem to find any information on their accuracy/reliability. Surely there are no "true" analogues to the pattern we are seeing now and hence analogue forecasts are of no use.
    1 point
  36. The wind was also going to be a problem originally, when Florence was forecast to move inland as a cat3/4, but since then it slowed down and weakened. Even more recent forecasts had Florence making landfall as a cat2.
    1 point
  37. Sunspot number: 0 Spotless Days Current Stretch: 1 day 2018 total: 142 days (56%) The Radio Sun 10.7 cm flux: 70 sfu This is the second time where there has been a break of two days between each sun spotless cycle.
    1 point
  38. Helene still looks strong to me when it hits the UK as an x tropical storm next week. The track currently shown by the National hurricane centre takes it right into western parts. Still one to watch closely !
    1 point
  39. Pretty easy one. That's when daily Arctic-wide measurements began with the type of passive microwave sensors that are still used today. it means we have a consistent record where each year can be compared to the next and so on. 1979 wasn't particularly unusual either. In fact, 3 of the 4 years after 1979 averaged a higher extent. You can try to compare previous data, such as in the images below, with the consistent modern record but it makes year to year comparisons less valid. It's only useful for stronger trends, especially as you go further back
    1 point
  40. Picture perfect evening at Longleat! (Not sure if the moon one will look ok!)
    1 point
  41. Some parts maybe, but certainly not the Munich area for instance (I follow a few of the webcams there, there were some spectacular looking storms there in late May in particular). It's not unusual for a summer like this year's to be largely devoid of thundery activity though. There weren't many thunderstorms about during the summers of 1976, 1989 and 1990, and while 1995 had a thundery July, June and August of that year had somewhat less thundery activity than usual. Continuing a pattern seen in several recent years, parts of north-east England have had above average thundery activ
    1 point
  42. No real evidence of an eye now as far as I can tell but there is deep convention in the south, which may lead to some re-organization. Many models taking just to the west of Ireland as a strong autumn storm. With no clear warm core most tropical characteristics will be lost although this could change (good chance of a little re-organization in my opinion) , but it will still be a significant storm for the Azores. There are a few outlier model solutions that take Helene over Cornwall as an Autumn Storm, but I think this is unlikely at the moment. The westward movement could be a little bi
    1 point
  43. Noticed a few pink blobs on the rainfall radar early this morning around Ben Nevis and the MWIS forecast was for wet snow for the highest tops as it does for tomorrow http://www.mwis.org.uk/pdf/weather-forecasts/EH-MWI-WM11680_2018-09-12_151459_9120000.pdf Cool blustery day, mostly dry and sunny with a maximum temperature of 14 c
    1 point
  44. It's that time of the year again when the jma pv chart gets into it's winter mode I would like to see something like this although i think it may happen a tad sooner,just a hunch.
    1 point
  45. ECM is certainly interesting at the moment - ensembles projecting more atlantic influence inbound than their seasonal forecast run on 1st Sept suggested might be the case, and I would agree that all that warm water to the SW might help spawn early pockets of autumnal activity. Quite sharp SST gradient out to our west too....and with pacific forcing currently unremarkable flattish activity pushing ever closer to western fringes looks possible. Too early to get particularly excited about the forthcoming winter season, but the number of weather extremes we seem to be experiencing
    1 point
  46. Mainly because the other flavours aren't very nice, the tobacco flavour is disgusting. I've settled on cherry, which is a quite "grown up" flavour and doesn't clash with beer in particular! I'm trying to get used to mine, but can't quite abandon cigs completely, just yet. My partner, who smoked more than me, took to it instantly & hasn't smoked a cig in 4 years and is on a very low nicotine dose. I agree about the smell though, when I get a whiff of his blueberry, I find it quite unpleasant, what a hypocrite I am!
    1 point
  47. I used to be a Pipe smoker and stopped the day I took up the vape. As a way away from both the health risks of smoking and the habits that can flummox folk giving up smoking the vape is perfect. you switch straight to a nicotine levels you are used to and then take your own time reducing that addiction. As for the 'smell'? I still mainly pop out for a puff on the vape but Mrs and kids do not report any smell? Any walk within 3m of a busy road should be feared far more than 'steam plus whatever is contained in that diminutive 'puff' ' . If folk could see the pollution from t
    1 point
  48. Oh and I'm shocked that so many people refer to it as smoke. It's not smoke, it's vapour. Two very different things. One is carcinogenic, the other is not. Also, I whole heartedly agree with the replies above. Someone who lives in a town or city is considerably more likely to be adversely affected by traffic pollution than any form of vaping.
    1 point
  49. Sorry Snowy but i get a '404' on that link? As for nature V's Pharma drugs. If they are proven by generations of positive results I'd go nature every time! I am suffering , not only from my underlying conditions but now the results of the medicine which is proving more life threatening than my original complaints. Pharma do not profit from cures but from repeated administering of their tinctures most of which have not had full life studies done on them ( unlike the Naturals?)
    1 point
  50. Important not to get weather and climate mixed up. I'd not consider an isolated one or two exceptional months to mean much, but here for example, my location has seen top 5% mean temperature months for each of April, May and June, followed by a record-hot July. That's beyond what can be reasonably explained by natural variability. Cold months, even record cold ones, will remain possible so long as snow falls across northern Asia and Scandinavia Nov-Mar, which thanks to the polar night, should always be the case. In fact, snowfall is likely to become deeper in those regions as a result of
    1 point
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