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Oh look some real weather to talk about for once . That is a nice storm ECM . It beats boring sunny hot weather we have had for the last 4 months . Still warm for a few days next week ( but I can't see 30 being reached ) . After that it looks nice and cool

The medium term outlook will be influenced to some extent by the travels of TS Helene but prior to that a fairly mixed bag with nothing seriously drastic and once again tending towards a N/S bias.So on to the detail, and as usual starting with the NH profile and the surface analysis at midnight. As mentioned yesterday evening the next band of rain, perhaps heavy at times, associated with the upper cold front on the chart above, is currently over south Wales and the Midlands (shows quite clearly on the 0300 WV image) And will slowly track south east behind the weakening surface front, not clearing the Kent until the afternoon. So cloudy with rain south of this whilst clearer and cooler air to the north but with frequent squally showers over N. Ireland and Scotland where the occlusion and low pressure to the north west is in close proximity With the fronts finally out of the way it will be a clear night over much of England and Wales, thus probably a cool start to the day on Thursday with a few fog patches, but these will clear quickly to give a pretty fine day. But further north the aforementioned occlusion and low pressure is still in fairly close attendance so a continuation of the blustery showers. But during the day but more persistant rain associated with the next frontal system will arrive over N. Ireland and western Scotland by 1700. The rain will spread east and then south east overnight and through Friday following the cold front whilst the south remains dry with perhaps the odd shower in western regions. The north/south bias theme is epitomized over the weekend as a complex low pressure system moves east on the quite strong jet and this and associated fronts bring rain and strengthening winds to the north on Saturday which track south during Sunday leaving the latter quite dry on both days and relatively warm on Sunday. And on to the NH profile at T120 where quite a lot is happening with Florence going ashore south of the block, another trough being ejected from the vortex north of it and Helene entering the fray.

Spare a thought for super typhoon mangkhut,makes Florence look tame by comparison,the former has sustained winds of 160 mph

Best make the most of it

Someone put this up on an Irish weather forum. I think it's the ECM seasonal update. Looks very nice.

Wow there's a lot of very warm air wrapped up in that vigorous depression on its eastern flank on the Ecm 12z, real blow torch and torrential rain too..possibly thundery!.. A cool crisp autumnal end to the run with a risk of ground frost across scotland.

The ECMWF 12Z looks very scary for Tuesday, sending the low into mainland Britain without losing much of its intensity:

The best for an attempt an Northern blocking, you aren't going to get cold enough for snow this early!! - but at least it would feel nice.

Very interesting this year, I’m going in early this year with prelim winter LRF on 1st Oct (I’ve got my written notes now but need to tidy itup) then detail it up with periods of note as I do around 1st Nov. Regards BFTP

Lovely sunset this evening (although my phone camera doesn’t do it justice)

The best member yet this season is ptb 16 on the 12z GEFS.

Evidence now building that this low will stall out west for a period, drawing up a hot air stream from the south. T144 from UKMO, GFS and GEM: GFS at T192: GEM at T192: Probably not worth looking much further than that given uncertainties. But does now look like a late warm/hot spell next week, particularly in the SE.

There is a mention of warm / very warm spells further s / e in today's update, the Ukmo 12z @ T+144 hours would back that up as it shows very impressive uppers (850's) for mid september and depending on sunshine, mid / high 20's celsius would be achievable in favoured spots..could be another taste of summer for some of us next week.☺

The International Space Station went straight over Florence around 45/50 minutes ago. You can view it Live on YouTube and rewind back to when it went over by dragging the red bar with you mouse curser or finger on mobile back to around -45/50 minutes ago as of now (1.31pm UK) and let it play Link here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UQt2iLKqBbI

First look at this one on weather.us ... holy cow!! ECM predicting a hit on N Phillipinnes with gusts up to 201mph!! Then onto the south China coast with gusts still up to 149mph!! Florence is a bit of a midget compared to this one.

A long way from consensus on what ex-Helene will do, as mentioned above: But all models going for a tropical Tuesday Maybe even pushing 30C

I can see it

Now one thing I really would love to see is the approach of the storm, must be so eerie.

Completely disagree. If they want to risk their own lives, go right ahead. But no doubt there will be selfless souls who will be willing to risk their lives to save them when they inevitably get into a life-threatening situation. They're stupid, not brave.

Lol , id say stupidity

well if they watched a Mike Theiss video of Katrina they may well be trying to get off the island now...

And then there was hurricane bawbag! Never forget!

i think another factor we need to take into account is the likelyhood that the climate might have been different, warmer in fact. we know it was in roman times. its possible that if it was warmer, plants/nature would be further in advance then what we are used to today.

This is how it compares with the same time last year:

Lucky Beggers

Latest Glosea5 is out.

As a forerunner to what is potentially a wet and windy period for the western half of the UK quite a wet and breezy Sunday in the north

Sorry went to bed but here are the the adt Dvorak as well. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt06L.html raw t dropped when I went to sleep , recon came in and looking at loops she ingested a lot of dry air. that has now mixed out at t numbers are increasing again Back to 6.2. Recon has been very bad so far roughly every 12 hrs. I know that some have been cancelled due to other issues but for one of the largest hurricanes hitting the east coast in years it’s a shame they this level of lack of funding and resources. Some winds. Sustained 3 hr gusts as they will cause the damage they are very bad for over qtr of a million people. The storm surge will be huge for a storm sitting off the coast. This is one of the biggest shiping areas and the docks and any boats that don’t leave could well be destroyed leading to a loss of a lot of industry. Rain will be a major issue and from experience they are pretty rubbish at predicting it even 24 hrs out as outflow and bands just won’t be placed. Forecasts to this point will be very generic imho.

its much older then that though, and fits perfectly with the pagan definitions, midsummers day is the mid point between beltane and Lughnasadh likewise mid winters day .

If that eye shrinks, the storm intensifies. If that eye shrinks too much, an outer eyewall can develop. If an outer eyewall develops, she undergoes an EWRC and de-intensifies... but does so at the cost of becoming a larger storm. After EWRC, it's then a question of whether she has the time and environmental conditions to reintensify. The bigger she is and the more intense she is, the worse it gets for the Carolinas.... not to mention Pittsburgh down the line (all that moisture has to be dumped somewhere once the storm's not intense enough to support it aloft, after all). Basically, there's no scenario in which this ends well as things stand.

My suggestion is "No-one knows anything beyond five days, just enjoy what the atmosphere throws at us."

Summers over..it's time for a new thread!!!..or is it? the Ecm 12z doesn't agree.?️..Ahhhaaaaaaaaaaaa

cool EC! still going for mon-wed kinda plume, similar to summer before last, plumes tended to arrive Tue/wed, fresher from the west Thurs, won't get me any 'likes' like 2 posts above, but who gives a damn, 5 likes for no charts, talking about winter

Yes, this is quite a view! Mind you, looking the outlook after the weekend, it looks like the Atlantic will become very quiet again.

Summer like heat may return for a time next week all depends on how the ex-hurricane tracks

Still a wide range of outcomes today - ensembles looking a bit scattergun as they struggle to process ex-Helene as it gets thrown into the mix. Odds on for a warm day or two though in the middle of next week.

Looks pretty similar to last night's runs. Actually worse, the winds even stronger for longer.

Crazy, on the GFS Helene still has a residual warm core as she approaches Cornwall -

I have to say to all the people that moan about rain in the UK - this is what you call rain!!! - to put it in perspective, if the more extreme model runs verify, this hurricane will give 6 months - 1 years worth of the rainfall I would expect to see in 24-48 hours, if I had that where I live, undoubtably the water would be above peoples roofs and thousands would drown.

Ec has taken a nasty twist. It stalls the system just offshore with the eye over water but the eye wall just reaching land for 2-3 days Rainfall totals. Some areas 1m of rain. Wilmington for example has gusts of 100mph or more continuously for nearly 48 hrs

Actually, and probably just for fun given uncertainty, ECM does go on to deliver a real final blast of summer at T240: I think this is a decent bet for reasons expressed in my last post, but considerable uncertainty remains.

Here's the forecast based on the 12z GFS Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg) 15.1C to the 11th... +0.1 (15.9: +1.1) 15.1C to the 12th... +0.1 (14.1: -0.3) 14.8C to the 13th... +0.0 (12.4: -1.5) 14.7C to the 14th... -0.1 (12.3: -1.4) 14.6C to the 15th... -0.1 (14.3: +0.7) 14.7C to the 16th... +0.0 (15.3: +1.6) 14.7C to the 17th... +0.1 (14.4: +0.6) 14.9C to the 18th... +0.3 (18.5: +4.6) 15.0C to the 19th... +0.5 (17.7: +4.1) 15.0C to the 20th... +0.5 (15.4: +1.4) Gradual decline towards the weekend after which the CET may begin to climb once more, with some very warm conditions for the time of year forecast for early next week.

If think winterstorms should be catagorised like hurricanes as it would lead to better preparedness

Angers me when people are so pig-headed and refuse to evacuate. If they want to risk their lives, then fine, but there will inevitably be people risking their lives to try and rescue them when things go wrong.

Further to the above and looking at the latest updates it appears that the distribution and intensity of the rain that apparently has been causing one or two headaches is down to an upper cold front swinging in from the south west and following behind the established front with the rain finally not clearing the south until lunchtime tomorrow.

Yes but if you see rampant zonality in Nov all the way around the globe at 50-60N, then unlikely to see the above patterns in Dec, im not one that subscribes to the view that you cant have a very wet troughy UK in Nov and still have a blocked Dec but you really need the Zonality to not get too far past the Prime meridian, you still want the Russian high to be a major player. its about building blocks.

The National Hurricane Centre must be flat out with this lot. 6 areas of interest and something that's not exited Africa yet aswell. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

Sun came out mid afternoon. Walked in greenhouse and glasses steamed up.