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Showing content with the highest reputation on 12/09/18 in all areas

  1. 9 points
    The medium term outlook will be influenced to some extent by the travels of TS Helene but prior to that a fairly mixed bag with nothing seriously drastic and once again tending towards a N/S bias.So on to the detail, and as usual starting with the NH profile and the surface analysis at midnight. As mentioned yesterday evening the next band of rain, perhaps heavy at times, associated with the upper cold front on the chart above, is currently over south Wales and the Midlands (shows quite clearly on the 0300 WV image) And will slowly track south east behind the weakening surface front, not clearing the Kent until the afternoon. So cloudy with rain south of this whilst clearer and cooler air to the north but with frequent squally showers over N. Ireland and Scotland where the occlusion and low pressure to the north west is in close proximity With the fronts finally out of the way it will be a clear night over much of England and Wales, thus probably a cool start to the day on Thursday with a few fog patches, but these will clear quickly to give a pretty fine day. But further north the aforementioned occlusion and low pressure is still in fairly close attendance so a continuation of the blustery showers. But during the day but more persistant rain associated with the next frontal system will arrive over N. Ireland and western Scotland by 1700. The rain will spread east and then south east overnight and through Friday following the cold front whilst the south remains dry with perhaps the odd shower in western regions. The north/south bias theme is epitomized over the weekend as a complex low pressure system moves east on the quite strong jet and this and associated fronts bring rain and strengthening winds to the north on Saturday which track south during Sunday leaving the latter quite dry on both days and relatively warm on Sunday. And on to the NH profile at T120 where quite a lot is happening with Florence going ashore south of the block, another trough being ejected from the vortex north of it and Helene entering the fray.
  2. 6 points
    Spare a thought for super typhoon mangkhut,makes Florence look tame by comparison,the former has sustained winds of 160 mph
  3. 3 points
    The International Space Station went straight over Florence around 45/50 minutes ago. You can view it Live on YouTube and rewind back to when it went over by dragging the red bar with you mouse curser or finger on mobile back to around -45/50 minutes ago as of now (1.31pm UK) and let it play Link here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UQt2iLKqBbI
  4. 3 points
    First look at this one on weather.us ... holy cow!! ECM predicting a hit on N Phillipinnes with gusts up to 201mph!! Then onto the south China coast with gusts still up to 149mph!! Florence is a bit of a midget compared to this one.
  5. 3 points
    A long way from consensus on what ex-Helene will do, as mentioned above: But all models going for a tropical Tuesday Maybe even pushing 30C
  6. 2 points
    i think another factor we need to take into account is the likelyhood that the climate might have been different, warmer in fact. we know it was in roman times. its possible that if it was warmer, plants/nature would be further in advance then what we are used to today.
  7. 2 points
    This is how it compares with the same time last year:
  8. 2 points
  9. 2 points
  10. 2 points
    As a forerunner to what is potentially a wet and windy period for the western half of the UK quite a wet and breezy Sunday in the north
  11. 2 points
    Sorry went to bed but here are the the adt Dvorak as well. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt06L.html raw t dropped when I went to sleep , recon came in and looking at loops she ingested a lot of dry air. that has now mixed out at t numbers are increasing again Back to 6.2. Recon has been very bad so far roughly every 12 hrs. I know that some have been cancelled due to other issues but for one of the largest hurricanes hitting the east coast in years it’s a shame they this level of lack of funding and resources. Some winds. Sustained 3 hr gusts as they will cause the damage they are very bad for over qtr of a million people. The storm surge will be huge for a storm sitting off the coast. This is one of the biggest shiping areas and the docks and any boats that don’t leave could well be destroyed leading to a loss of a lot of industry. Rain will be a major issue and from experience they are pretty rubbish at predicting it even 24 hrs out as outflow and bands just won’t be placed. Forecasts to this point will be very generic imho.
  12. 2 points
    its much older then that though, and fits perfectly with the pagan definitions, midsummers day is the mid point between beltane and Lughnasadh likewise mid winters day .
  13. 2 points
    If that eye shrinks, the storm intensifies. If that eye shrinks too much, an outer eyewall can develop. If an outer eyewall develops, she undergoes an EWRC and de-intensifies... but does so at the cost of becoming a larger storm. After EWRC, it's then a question of whether she has the time and environmental conditions to reintensify. The bigger she is and the more intense she is, the worse it gets for the Carolinas.... not to mention Pittsburgh down the line (all that moisture has to be dumped somewhere once the storm's not intense enough to support it aloft, after all). Basically, there's no scenario in which this ends well as things stand.
  14. 2 points
    My suggestion is "No-one knows anything beyond five days, just enjoy what the atmosphere throws at us."
  15. 2 points
    Summers over..it's time for a new thread!!!..or is it? the Ecm 12z doesn't agree...Ahhhaaaaaaaaaaaa
  16. 2 points
    cool EC! still going for mon-wed kinda plume, similar to summer before last, plumes tended to arrive Tue/wed, fresher from the west Thurs, won't get me any 'likes' like 2 posts above, but who gives a damn, 5 likes for no charts, talking about winter
  17. 1 point
    lol Thought Madden had a swear filter on here. My feeling is there is something round the corner.... the SSW has really scuppered everything and with the increase in Hurricane season really kicking in now pump all that heat into the Polar regions and watch that jet stream plummet. Look east this year once the continent has cooled
  18. 1 point
    Summer like heat may return for a time next week all depends on how the ex-hurricane tracks
  19. 1 point
    Would like to think the ECMWF has the best handle on the situation since when storms get intense, they can have a tendency to quickly take a left turn and head Northwards. Plus would give those who love the heat another slice of Summer!
  20. 1 point
    Crazy, on the GFS Helene still has a residual warm core as she approaches Cornwall -
  21. 1 point
    I have to say to all the people that moan about rain in the UK - this is what you call rain!!! - to put it in perspective, if the more extreme model runs verify, this hurricane will give 6 months - 1 years worth of the rainfall I would expect to see in 24-48 hours, if I had that where I live, undoubtably the water would be above peoples roofs and thousands would drown.
  22. 1 point
    Angers me when people are so pig-headed and refuse to evacuate. If they want to risk their lives, then fine, but there will inevitably be people risking their lives to try and rescue them when things go wrong.
  23. 1 point
    Yes but if you see rampant zonality in Nov all the way around the globe at 50-60N, then unlikely to see the above patterns in Dec, im not one that subscribes to the view that you cant have a very wet troughy UK in Nov and still have a blocked Dec but you really need the Zonality to not get too far past the Prime meridian, you still want the Russian high to be a major player. its about building blocks.
  24. 1 point
    Sun came out mid afternoon. Walked in greenhouse and glasses steamed up.
  25. 1 point
    Sixty-three today and a week tomorrow, will be exactly three years since I had a brain haemorrhage/stroke. So really feel lucky to be alive still, after "dying" twice but thanks to our brilliant NHS and the love and care, from my wife, I'm still here to tell the tale!! Just had a walk to the shops with my wife, felt quite humid when the sun poked out, briefly. Hope you all have a lovely day, I'm determined to. Regards, Tom.
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