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Showing most liked content on 12/09/18 in all areas

  1. 11 likes
    Oh look some real weather to talk about for once . That is a nice storm ECM . It beats boring sunny hot weather we have had for the last 4 months . Still warm for a few days next week ( but I can't see 30 being reached ) . After that it looks nice and cool
  2. 9 likes
    The medium term outlook will be influenced to some extent by the travels of TS Helene but prior to that a fairly mixed bag with nothing seriously drastic and once again tending towards a N/S bias.So on to the detail, and as usual starting with the NH profile and the surface analysis at midnight. As mentioned yesterday evening the next band of rain, perhaps heavy at times, associated with the upper cold front on the chart above, is currently over south Wales and the Midlands (shows quite clearly on the 0300 WV image) And will slowly track south east behind the weakening surface front, not clearing the Kent until the afternoon. So cloudy with rain south of this whilst clearer and cooler air to the north but with frequent squally showers over N. Ireland and Scotland where the occlusion and low pressure to the north west is in close proximity With the fronts finally out of the way it will be a clear night over much of England and Wales, thus probably a cool start to the day on Thursday with a few fog patches, but these will clear quickly to give a pretty fine day. But further north the aforementioned occlusion and low pressure is still in fairly close attendance so a continuation of the blustery showers. But during the day but more persistant rain associated with the next frontal system will arrive over N. Ireland and western Scotland by 1700. The rain will spread east and then south east overnight and through Friday following the cold front whilst the south remains dry with perhaps the odd shower in western regions. The north/south bias theme is epitomized over the weekend as a complex low pressure system moves east on the quite strong jet and this and associated fronts bring rain and strengthening winds to the north on Saturday which track south during Sunday leaving the latter quite dry on both days and relatively warm on Sunday. And on to the NH profile at T120 where quite a lot is happening with Florence going ashore south of the block, another trough being ejected from the vortex north of it and Helene entering the fray.
  3. 6 likes
    Spare a thought for super typhoon mangkhut,makes Florence look tame by comparison,the former has sustained winds of 160 mph
  4. 4 likes
    The ECMWF 12Z looks very scary for Tuesday, sending the low into mainland Britain without losing much of its intensity:
  5. 3 likes
    Lovely sunset this evening (although my phone camera doesn’t do it justice)
  6. 3 likes
    The best member yet this season is ptb 16 on the 12z GEFS.
  7. 3 likes
    Evidence now building that this low will stall out west for a period, drawing up a hot air stream from the south. T144 from UKMO, GFS and GEM: GFS at T192: GEM at T192: Probably not worth looking much further than that given uncertainties. But does now look like a late warm/hot spell next week, particularly in the SE.
  8. 2 likes
    Now one thing I really would love to see is the approach of the storm, must be so eerie.
  9. 2 likes
  10. 2 likes
    well if they watched a Mike Theiss video of Katrina they may well be trying to get off the island now...
  11. 2 likes
  12. 2 likes
    As a forerunner to what is potentially a wet and windy period for the western half of the UK quite a wet and breezy Sunday in the north
  13. 2 likes
    its much older then that though, and fits perfectly with the pagan definitions, midsummers day is the mid point between beltane and Lughnasadh likewise mid winters day .
  14. 2 likes
    Summers over..it's time for a new thread!!!..or is it? the Ecm 12z doesn't agree...Ahhhaaaaaaaaaaaa
  15. 2 likes
    cool EC! still going for mon-wed kinda plume, similar to summer before last, plumes tended to arrive Tue/wed, fresher from the west Thurs, won't get me any 'likes' like 2 posts above, but who gives a damn, 5 likes for no charts, talking about winter
  16. 1 like
    True , i grew up there it gave me my gumption for buisness , lol
  17. 1 like
    If they know the risks, then they are inviting death, and putting at risk those good people who would try to save them. Simple as that. That's not brave. There is no world in which that is brave. It's idiotic. The risks are in the graphics above.... they have a major hurricane bearing down on them, and they've basically been warned (if they've even bothered listening), that their island is likely going to be forcefully overwashed by sea, and battered by air. If they think "I know better so I'm not listening" then they're idiots. If they think "Well, it's only a chance that might happen" then they're idiots. If they think "If we're wrong, someone will save us and it'll be OK" then they're idiots. The information we have is out there for a reason.
  18. 1 like
    Was waiting for this! There's a huge difference. They're on an isolated island with no possibility of escape and are obviously completely oblivious to the dangers and taking a totally unnecessary risk. Any credible tornado chaser always has an escape route and is fully aware of the risks. It's far easier to escape an isolated supercell with numerous road options away from it than a tropical storm hundreds of miles across with no transport options.
  19. 1 like
    Even more reason for those in the firing line to get the hell out of there!
  20. 1 like
    One things for sure anyway, New Orleans wont be holding any more pop concerts after that one with Katrina and the waves was a complete washout.
  21. 1 like
    With how much we're screwing up the climate, I dread to think!
  22. 1 like
  23. 1 like
    80 to 90 mph . Here are a few snap shots of charts from weather.us .
  24. 1 like
    Wouldn’t say that necessarily translates as nice and cool just yet - 850s are similar for the next couple of days and it’ll still get to 19/20c. Not quite late enough in the year yet for low single figure 850s to make it really cool....perhaps a bit more up north, but certainly not down here just yet.
  25. 1 like
    That tesco ad with that annoying woman talking about pasta
  26. 1 like
    The set up for next week reminds me of Ophelia last October. Could we possibly get similar dusty air brought up from the South.
  27. 1 like
    That mentality is beyond my comprehension.. I read on some news post someone said “, I am staying here cos all my stuff is here and I don’t want it looted” ..
  28. 1 like
    Jesus, the highest point of the island is 91cm asl ,nutters edit ,peak baggers say there's a high point of 27 ft
  29. 1 like
    Sunny Sheffield still at 14.6C -0.8C below normal. Rainfall 11.3mm 17.3% of the monthly rainfall.
  30. 1 like
    Aye Tesco adds where the worst for that most adds these days are garbage
  31. 1 like
    EC has rainfall totals of around 700mm in places.
  32. 1 like
    Hi HW. Could you paste info in plain text rather than rich text?! It should give you the option when pasting text in to the edit box. The text you paste is causing the forum to break, and push text right off of the side of the screen A nightmare while trying to read on a mobile phone.
  33. 1 like
  34. 1 like
    Yeah Gav has done a little explanation on the new ECM Seasonal: https://www.gavsweathervids.com/flash.html
  35. 1 like
    lol Thought Madden had a swear filter on here. My feeling is there is something round the corner.... the SSW has really scuppered everything and with the increase in Hurricane season really kicking in now pump all that heat into the Polar regions and watch that jet stream plummet. Look east this year once the continent has cooled
  36. 1 like
    Those are 2 of the best updates ive seen for a number of years for the following winter!!normally we got very strong heights to the south of us and low heights to the north!!very encouraging indeed!!amazing how quickly the ecm update has changed from the last month!just shows how futile it is!!
  37. 1 like
  38. 1 like
    Maybe, but the thing that confuses me about that is the fact that Beltane is supposed to be around 1st May. This would define Summer as beginning around the start of May and ending around 1st August. Likewise Winter would begin around 1st November (Samhain) and ending around 1st February (Imbolc). These definitions would set the seasons as beginning and ending a month earlier than our modern meteorological ones. Actually thinking about it, I see where you're coming from if you think of the Summer solstice as occurring around mid June (actually 21st but give or take I suppose) which is roughly half way between 1st May and 1st August. They say every days a School day after all, thanks .
  39. 1 like
    Still a wide range of outcomes today - ensembles looking a bit scattergun as they struggle to process ex-Helene as it gets thrown into the mix. Odds on for a warm day or two though in the middle of next week.
  40. 1 like
    Yes - I think I need to retract part of my comment from yesterday - I've been wrestling with inadequate data for a while and got a bit fed up with it, but today have now worked out access to WDT style charts as well as the excellent Gensini site. (Message to self - never post without checking the data more carefully...) Relative AAM is currently spiking, and quite significantly. AAM forecast over at Gensini's site is similarly impressive This should support a much less "flat" pattern in the final third of the month and with the atlantic trough in situ the chance for some long draw SW air returns, though as ever the exact placement of the ridge will be important. Scandy high territory? With atlantic storms in the mix we have some good watching for the time of year coming...and that pesky SW airstream wont cook us in late September either Still badly need some rain though - wouldnt mind seeing the extended ECM op runs at the moment, toying with wet tropical airmasses arriving on the scene, coming true.
  41. 1 like
    Would like to think the ECMWF has the best handle on the situation since when storms get intense, they can have a tendency to quickly take a left turn and head Northwards. Plus would give those who love the heat another slice of Summer!
  42. 1 like
    I have to say to all the people that moan about rain in the UK - this is what you call rain!!! - to put it in perspective, if the more extreme model runs verify, this hurricane will give 6 months - 1 years worth of the rainfall I would expect to see in 24-48 hours, if I had that where I live, undoubtably the water would be above peoples roofs and thousands would drown.
  43. 1 like
    Ec has taken a nasty twist. It stalls the system just offshore with the eye over water but the eye wall just reaching land for 2-3 days Rainfall totals. Some areas 1m of rain. Wilmington for example has gusts of 100mph or more continuously for nearly 48 hrs
  44. 1 like
    Further to the above and looking at the latest updates it appears that the distribution and intensity of the rain that apparently has been causing one or two headaches is down to an upper cold front swinging in from the south west and following behind the established front with the rain finally not clearing the south until lunchtime tomorrow.
  45. 1 like
    Yes but if you see rampant zonality in Nov all the way around the globe at 50-60N, then unlikely to see the above patterns in Dec, im not one that subscribes to the view that you cant have a very wet troughy UK in Nov and still have a blocked Dec but you really need the Zonality to not get too far past the Prime meridian, you still want the Russian high to be a major player. its about building blocks.
  46. 1 like
    The National Hurricane Centre must be flat out with this lot. 6 areas of interest and something that's not exited Africa yet aswell. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2
  47. 1 like
  48. 1 like
    Alaskan volcanos VENIAMINOF VOLCANO (VNUM #312070) 56°11'52" N 159°23'35" W, Summit Elevation 8225 ft (2507 m) Current Volcano Alert Level: WATCH Current Aviation Color Code: ORANGE Unrest continues at Veniaminof. Seismic activity remains elevated. Incandescence was observed at the summit of Veniaminof in images from the FAA Perryville web camera throughout last night. Strongly elevated surface temperatures were observed at the summit in satellite data. Veniaminof Volcano is monitored with a local real-time seismic network, which will typically allow AVO to detect changes in unrest that may lead to an explosive eruption. Rapid detection of an ash-producing eruption would be accomplished using a combination of seismic, infrasound, lightning, and satellite data. GREAT SITKIN VOLCANO (VNUM #311120) 52°4'35" N 176°6'39" W, Summit Elevation 5709 ft (1740 m) Current Volcano Alert Level: ADVISORY Current Aviation Color Code: YELLOW Low-level unrest continues at Great Sitkin Volcano. There has been a slight increase in local earthquakes over the past day. No significant activity was observed in cloudy satellite images. Great Sitkin Volcano is monitored with a local real-time seismic network, which will typically allow AVO to detect changes in unrest that may lead to an explosive eruption. Rapid detection of an ash-producing eruption would be accomplished using a combination of seismic, infrasound, lightning, and satellite data. CLEVELAND VOLCANO (VNUM #311240) 52°49'20" N 169°56'42" W, Summit Elevation 5676 ft (1730 m) Current Volcano Alert Level: ADVISORY Current Aviation Color Code: YELLOW Low-level unrest continues at Cleveland Volcano. Elevated surface temperatures were observed in several satellite images acquired over the past day. Clear webcam views form this morning showed active degassing from the summit. No significant activity was detected in seismic or pressure sensor (infrasound) data during the past day. Cleveland volcano is monitored by only two seismic stations, which restricts AVO's ability to detect precursory unrest that may lead to an explosive eruption. Rapid detection of an ash-producing eruption may be possible using a combination of seismic, infrasound, lightning, and satellite data.
  49. 1 like
    Sixty-three today and a week tomorrow, will be exactly three years since I had a brain haemorrhage/stroke. So really feel lucky to be alive still, after "dying" twice but thanks to our brilliant NHS and the love and care, from my wife, I'm still here to tell the tale!! Just had a walk to the shops with my wife, felt quite humid when the sun poked out, briefly. Hope you all have a lovely day, I'm determined to. Regards, Tom.
  50. 1 like
    This article is interesting - https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/qj.2782 The research suggests a 0 - 2 year lagged response in late winter (...March 2018? February 2009? but March 2013 doesn't really fit with the pattern) and a 2 - 4 year lagged response in early winter (December 2010?). Perhaps there's a reverse effect with some of the mild zonal winters in the middle of the cycle too, e.g. 2013-14 and Dec 2015 after solar max. The article does say the results should be treated with caution, though, as the data only spans 58 years. This NOAA presentation mentions that early indications of solar cycle 25 suggest it may be as large as the current one (slides 21 - 23): https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/images/u33/What Happened to Those Sunspots.pdf
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