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Showing content with the highest reputation on 22/08/18 in all areas

  1. 10 points
    Despite the positive comments above it would appear to me that GFS aside there has been a considerable downgrade from the Euro and UKMO in terms of support for pressure to build for more than a day or two.
  2. 5 points
    The 21st of August has seen the first dustings of snow in Siberia And we're off......
  3. 5 points
    Today sees the start of the transition to a period of much cooler and unsettled weather, with the upper trough to the NW/N becoming the dominant feature.With this in mind the immediate priority is to firm up the details of the weather over the coming Bank Holiday weekend. The current NH profile As can be seen on the 0300 WV image it is currently pretty cloudy over much of the UK with the cold front and band of rain over southern Scotland. This will track slowly south east during the day leaving cooler and showery conditions in it's wake. But further south of the front which is still in th warm and humid air, where the cloud breaks it will get very warm. All resulting in quite a latitudinal contrast across the regions. Overnight and through Thursday morning the front and rain continue their travels, the latter pepping up for a time, before clearing around lunchtime leaving the whole of the UK in an unstable and cooler north westerly. Thus some heavy squally showers , concentrated more in the west and north where another system involving a wrap around occlusion has arrived on the scene. The occlusion also sinks south east through Thursday evening introducing even cooler air so that Friday becomes quite an unpleasant day with a fresh north westerly and frequent showers, and possibly some light frontal rain effecting the south west during the evening, with temps below average. Lighter winds on saturday as a transient ridge passe through but still some showers around and another cool day. But out to the west the next quite complex system is getting organized and is moving east. And by 1200 Sunday the low is 992mb south of Iceland and the array of fronts has brought cloud and rain to western parts of the UK which will move east, albeit becoming quite patchy. Another quite cool day with temps possibly a little below average. And the NH profile at T120
  4. 4 points
    The Gfs 12z operational shows a north / south split develop next week onwards following the cooler unsettled spell with most of the unsettled weather affecting northern uk whereas the south has higher pressure at times bringing predominantly dry, bright and warm conditions, especially further s / se but even further south is not immune from some occasional rain. For what it's worth I think the extended outlook will become a lot more settled as the 6z mean showed and exeter's latest update which is again excellent longer term for those of us hoping summer is extended to mid september at least!☺
  5. 4 points
    Agree with all this except to add - such a patten is a nailed on heatwave at the end of June, but at the start of September its all about the feed. A little easterly feed can be either warm or cool by then. Settled yes, but temperatures to be confirmed I think.
  6. 3 points
    Here's the forecast based on the 06z GFS Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg) 18.1C to the 22nd... +1.3 (19.1: +2.6) 18.0C to the 23rd... +1.3 (16.1: +0.0) 17.8C to the 24th... +1.1 (12.8: -3.3) 17.6C to the 25th... +0.9 (12.4: -3.4) 17.4C to the 26th... +0.8 (13.8: -1.9) 17.3C to the 27th... +0.7 (14.0: -1.4) 17.1C to the 28th... +0.6 (13.2: -1.9) 17.0C to the 29th... +0.5 (13.3: -2.0) 16.9C to the 30th... +0.4 (12.5: -3.0) 16.7C to the 31st... +0.3 (12.6: -2.6) A big cool down is now within the reliable time frame. While unlikely to break any records or even get into the 10 coolest days for any individual day, the final 8 days (13.1C) on this mornings 06z could be the coolest since 1986 (12.1C). It could also mark the biggest drop in temperature between the first and last week of August (6.7C), well above the previous record of 5.6C in 1982.
  7. 3 points
    Not sure i necessarily agree. EC clusters all high pressure dominated at day 10, staying that way right out to day 15: Met Office update also reflects this too, so reasonable confidence in some decent weather as we head into september - once we get the chilly and slightly unsettled bank holiday out of the way.
  8. 3 points
    Euro develops a trough near northern Siberia in about a week with -10 air so worth a look then.
  9. 3 points
    And for balance, the min chart for the same time. Also, it’s predicting 30 for London on your chart, hardly widespread.
  10. 3 points
    Tide is always against sustained settled conditions once we hit September - a week or two is feasible, but anything longer is quite difficult to achieve, compared to the March- July period. Factors which make it more difficult include the powering up of the jet, and unknown hurricane activity (which incidentally mind is forecast to be low this year - but one storm can throw things into chaos). In the short term - unsettled and significantly cooler for all, the first northerly I believe since April..As we approach September, yes strong signal high pressure will anchor itself over the UK and most probably ridge NE to scandi. I can see early Sept being a very trying period model watching with not much happening (September is the most uninteresting month for model watching and weather enthusiasts in my opinion - 'wake me up when September ends'..)
  11. 3 points
    What a boring summer for storms this is. Utterly applling
  12. 3 points
    Fair enough Mike . Time will tell mate . Back to this week and the Gem is showing some quite low temps sat night / sun morn . Could be the first ground frost for a while .
  13. 2 points
    I've started this thread a bit earlier than usual, namely due to the forecasted chilly nights expected Friday and Saturday with an outside chance of ground frosts in frost prone spots, who knows Highland location could get down to 0 degrees Sat eve, especially if the ridge builds in sufficiently later on under what will be very cool uppers and light winds. Please use this thread to predict first ground and air frosts of the season - and record your first ground and air frost. Ground frosts before late September are an exception for many away from sheltered northern valleys and glens. Here we tend to record our first ground frost by last week of September, and out first air frost by middle of October. Some years we have had to wait longer, others earlier. In 2012we got down to -3 degrees on the 23 Sept or thereabouts. Some years we have had to wait until November for our first air frost , 2006 springs to mind. I'll keep resurrecting this thread whenever the threat of frost is forecast - it often gets lost as we move further through Autumn, but I will certainly keep it alive..
  14. 2 points
    As we say in winter, get the cold air in place first and then look at snow potential..in the case of the Ecm 12z..get the high in first..worry about the uppers later.
  15. 2 points
    Some odd comments in here today, almost as if some people are subject to cold bias! Even if it isn't winter. Cut right to the chase ECM at T240: On the money as per warm, possibly very warm and settled start to September. Let's go back a bit, T120 bank holiday Monday: Give a more settled bank holiday to the SE, less so further north, and not very warm. Back to the T240 charts, and as well as the ECM we have this from the GFS, GEM and FV3:
  16. 2 points
    Through this evening and overnight the cold front continues to track south east with the rain belt pepping up somewhat in the early hours whilst further north the occlusion will bring further rain to N. Ireland and western Scotland by midnight which will also track south east but fragmenting a little in the morning. Still quite a warm and humid night in the south east but markedly cooler elsewhere. 1500 UTC
  17. 2 points
    what i don't get is that billions of people today follow the teachings from a time thousands of years ago when everyone was illiterate and had no concept of science or even the world around them...this just shows how stupid people are and how easily brainwashed and easily controlled the masses really are.
  18. 2 points
    The GEFS 6z mean strongly supports a warm anticyclonic extended outlook.☺
  19. 2 points
    Yes, if I'm not mistaken, both the GFS, UKMO, and to a certain extent the ECM, don't show such a clear cut progression to high pressure. The former in particular only show high pressure properly influencing a few days at a time, interrupted by spoiler lows or digs down from the northwest. To me that sounds quite similar to this August.
  20. 2 points
    Although there may ( as i have said before) be a god. Over the years the Hypocracy of all religions is outstanding. We have the christian Trump followers who promote a anti immigrant narrative. We have the catholic Church with its systematic abuse of young boys by the clergy. we have radical Imans spouting anti west rhetoric. Infact just a few minutes on Twitter will show you the venom that is spouted on all sides. What a joke.
  21. 2 points
    Another historically great thread. My favourite time of the year is approaching!
  22. 2 points
    The ensemble data is from CFS, downoloaded from here: http://nomads.ncep.noaa.gov I did the chart by myself so at the moment it is only on our server, but hopefully it will soon be possible to interactively add more ensemble data to the chart at http://weatheriscool.com/index.php/stratosfaren-zonalvind-10hpa-60n-gfs-ens/
  23. 2 points
    Does 'vape' contain nicotine? Very addictive and certainly wouldnt be great for a pregnant woman to use. It does make me laugh though when some pub goers vape constantly and then for a few mins switch to ciggies. One such guy at our 'local' does this. I'm an ex-smoker, when age 11 to 30. I wouldnt support vaping in enclosed public spaces like pubs, restaurants and on public transport. Cant stand the vapour. Sickly.
  24. 2 points
    I'd love to see one in the western dry states (is arizona west?). It's been a long time since I witnessed a rain'less' thunderstorm. It's been a long time since I witnessed a thunderstorm in fact
  25. 2 points
    For ‘more balance’ as temps are normally undercooked by 1-3 degrees that would take many more places above 30*c.
  26. 2 points
  27. 2 points
    I don't agree Ice Cold, they've been showing variably at day 10 yes, but the change happened yesterday, I think. ALL the main models were showing basically the same evolution at day 10, the ensembles and clusters since have followed suit (see earlier posts from others), and of course today the Met Office update is totally behind it too, I'd be amazed if a warm, or very warm settled period didn't happen in early September. And this illustrates something I find interesting re the models, what time is FI? As of now, with the upcoming high pressure slow moving systems, and cross model agreement, it's day 8+. In winter, with possible snow scenarios on the cards it can be less than day 4. What makes the model watching interesting!
  28. 2 points
    These charts have been stuck at Day 10 for the past 5 days mike . They don't seem to be getting closer ? It's suits me fine because I'm ready and waiting for autumn . Quite cool 850s at day 9 especially Scotland
  29. 2 points
    Could do with a month or two of hot days (with storms thrown in of course). Not ready to say goodbye to the summer yet.
  30. 2 points
    Best day since the end of the heatwave. The drier airmass over the continent has drifted far enough north to influence most of the region. A high of 26c with the humidity dropping below 50% for the first time in days.
  31. 2 points
    I tried to add some more members from recent cfs runs (all members from last week) and its quite clear that according to cfs the vortex will get a tough start of the season. Interesting to see such an impressive signal and will be interesting to see how it verifies.
  32. 1 point
    Social media can also bring people together, Found my uncles kids i.e my cousins who i have never met on facebook.
  33. 1 point
    You might wish to avoid the GFS maxima forecasts for sunday. Minima are still pretty cool when the high tries to ridge. That keeps the daily mean down.
  34. 1 point
    Yes, agreed, but we're not even into Autumn yet, ECM ensemble means from 12z suite, still looking very promising for a warm up, here T192,T240 Difficult to to tell much from the mean plot, but I can't see any reason the warm up is not the form horse based on today's output.
  35. 1 point
    Really unpleasant late August day,very humid,heavy cloud,little breeze...nothing to like at all. So looking forward to those fresher conditions pushing in,a lovely change. Bank holiday weekend looking good as well,bit of rain,no washout but so much fresher,very nice!
  36. 1 point
    4.50 RESULT - GINGER NUT - 9/2 FAV. RATHBONE - 9/1 MOYASSAR - 7/1 DON ARMADO - 10/1 THE GREAT HEIR - 16/1 "FANTASY" RETURNS - £1 E.W. 1st 9/2 - V/W = £7.63 £1 E.W. 4th 10/1 - V/W = £3.50. Well done ALEXIS, BRISTLE BOY, K/WEATHER and LASSIE (By default) Regards, Tom.
  37. 1 point
    All going swimmingly for settled warm to very warm weather for swathes of the county on the GFS 18z T192 the anticyclone shows itself: Then by T240 we have this: And 12C uppers nudging in:
  38. 1 point
  39. 1 point
    The GEFS 12z mean has an increasingly warm and settled look to it longer term with plenty of strong ridging / anticyclonic influence indicated, even an azores / scandi high link-up!.. early september, possibly even to mid month..could be a nice extension to summer!
  40. 1 point
    And guess where im going tommorow umtil Saturday? Yup, NW Ireland.!!Quite looking forward to feeling chilly again to be honest.Big convective showers forecast for there.
  41. 1 point
    I'm keeping an eye on the little ridge over France and kink south in the trough base showing up for this Sunday, as there might just be enough amplification in the flow ahead of the flattening oprocess (i.e. move away from Nina-like) to drop a small low down toward Iberia and prevent the main trough from pushing cleanly east of the UK. Potential for some warm but rainy weather for the SE'rn half of the UK Sun-Mon if that transpires. Still expecting the tropical maritime flow to dominate again by early next week... but those delays to the tropical cycle have been very frustrating this month and a reminder that we can only take longer-range forecasting so far (we can see the overall direction of travel, but the pace of developments is subject to great uncertainty). It's so very painful to know what might well have been... you have to be very sturdy of mind to be a climatologist!
  42. 1 point
    Well, to be pedantic, meteorological summer ends on 31st August regardless of weather conditions Autumn is almost here. To be fair though, it does look like we'll see another warm period early September. However, unlike the similar June spell, the sun won't be anywhere near as strong, so it shouldn't feel as oppressive sitting out in the midday sun.
  43. 1 point
    Yeah, and I thought he was crazy for going for 9°C in December 2015...
  44. 1 point
    Social media has a lot to answer for. A lot of mis news and twisting of facts. Ok Net Weather community is social media. But every poster is a nice reasonable person none who have a chip on their shoulder and like to stir things up. Oh dear I’ll leave now. Too be honest not convinced by anyone without further reseach.
  45. 1 point
  46. 1 point
    For comparison with the above, the same charts from Météo France: SON OND NDJ
  47. 1 point
    The ECM NH Geopot anomalies for Sep/Oct/Nov: Notable -AO and perhaps even a weak -NAO, but average for the UK? Some PM influence maybe. As noted above, the Arctic positive height anomaly grows the further into Autumn we go, as does the negative anomaly over the UK: OND NDJ
  48. 1 point
    Looking ahead to Autumn and winter and the ENSO state i looked for first year Nino events that never got past weak because i don't think we reach moderate as things stand (we won't see 0.5 until at least September if not October for a monthly value and it's rare to keep strengthening through the winter) and also because i am still not 100% convinced that don't just see warm-neutral. Those years were.. 1953 1976 1979 2004 2006 Now in the Autumn they are mostly mild fests with persistent blocking to our east and low pressure to our north and west (a beauty of a pattern for the eastern US though) however the Jan-March period is a cracker with the blocking to our north east stretching to Greenland and largely showing the same thing for three months. It should probably be noted though that if we were looking on CET grounds then 07 was a stinker (beaten only by 2014 in my lifetime), 05 though not wet was largely mild until the second half of Feb, 1980 was episodic with a warm Feb between the cold Jan and March. 1977 had a cold start but went mild in Feb and so our hopes really rest on 1954 which was pretty cold through Q1.
  49. 1 point
  50. 1 point
    Storm near Sledmere, East Yorkshire - July 6th 2017

    © Nathan Edwards 2017

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