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Those of a warm persuasion may wish to avoid looking at the 0z, from day 9 onward it is wonderfully Autumn like. Before day 9 the outlook from all models is pretty average.

Feels so Autumnal today, loving the change from June and July.

The outlook still changeable but although the dying days of TS Ernesto are fairly mundane, it’s travels across the Atlantic have pushed the jet a tad north and initiated an influx of warmer and more humid air over the UK, particularly the southern half, within the short range period. Currently the upper trough is to the north west of the UK is dominating the weather and the fronts associated with this are tracking south east across England and Wales. The 0300 sat. image illustrates this well. The rain belt, quite persistent and moderate for a while, will finally clear the south east by early evening, Behind the fronts cooler and unstable air producing a rash of showers, particularly in the north west and west, and longer periods of rain where they coalesce. The midnight fax is a thing of beauty but just take it the fronts merge. The showers will tend to die out overnight apart from some lingering in the north west, so a clear night but cloud and rain from the warm front associated with a new low south of Iceland will impact N. Ireland by the morning and spread to most northern areas during the day. Further south drier but tending cloudy and humid Over Friday night and through Saturday quite a complex picture emerges as the Iceland low tracks north east and the fronts south east across the UK whilst at the same time the waving cold front trails across the Atlantic where Ernesto has joined in the mix. An overview Thus much of England and Wales will be in the warm sector on Saturday thus cloudy, humid but warm where the sun breaks through but cooler with patchy rain in the north. By Sunday the waving front(s) and a fading Ernesto have arrived on the scene giving quite complex regional scenario as can be seen by a quick glance at the charts. Essentially cooler with rain in the north, cloudy and mild in the south With Ernesto out of the way into the North Sea Sunday portends to be a warm and humid day in most areas with the noteable exception of northern Scotland. And the NH profile at T120

I think the summer is over celebrations are premature, the Gefs 00z mean suggests a decent spell next week across southern uk with pressure relatively high and further ahead there is plenty of support for high pressure to be even more dominant!☺

But look at how this Mid-Atlantic ridge is expected to develop. Compare D9, D11 and D13. Watch how the oranges /reds work their way, on the majority of clusters, from left to right. This suggests to me a good chance of a ridge passing through the UK at a higher latitude than in the past 10 days, eventually turning the flow more southerly.

As a coldie, I like to see the expanding cold pool across the high arctic from the end of summer and especially through autumn but at the same time i'm not ready yet to let go of summery potential in mid august and the ecm 12z shows some nice azores ridging and warm fine weather across southern uk, indeed potentially very warm for a time depending on sunshine amounts, there is a cool unsettled blip from the north later next week before high pressure ridges in from the west and temperatures start to rise once again.☺

Nice to see the pretty blue colours back on the ECM . Wonder if the PV will ramp up early this year ??

The GFS shows some pretty cool uppers pushing South into Wk2.

SAD occurs in the Summer as well don't forget. Also a tan is skin in a burnt condition,the level just varies,may look good to some but not healthy,that is just a myth. The tan is just a by product of being outside in fresh air,active,that's healthy,the tan is not. Pale does not mean unwell,far from it. Not sure where your getting your info from..

Following on from yesterdays Autumnal GFS todays is feeling even more generous, ground frost for favoured spots.

With Summer 2018 looking to finish above 17°C, I thought I'd look at how it so far compares with all other 17°C-and-over Summers (nine in total) in terms of the numbers of "hot days". I've plotted the number of daily means above or equal to each of 20°C, 21°C, 22°C, 23°C, and 24°C in each of these Summers alongside the current corresponding figures for Summer 2018 (August figures are provisional). Each of the current top nine are shown in order of lowest rank to highest rank from left to right, followed by 2018. Apologies about the vertical axis labels which should read "above or equal to" instead of just "above". The number of 20°C+ days shows a fairly even spread, with 1995 the only one to really buck the trend at a whopping 26. As very hot Summers go, 2018 seems pretty normal in this respect, with 15. Going up to 21°C+ days, 2018 drops down very quickly to just three! The Summers of 1976 and 1995 dominate with 14 and 15 respectively, while 1826, with five days, and 1846, with six days, are the next lowest after 2018. Going up again to 22°C+ days, 1976 destroys all competition with 12 days. The Summers of 1826, 1846, and 2018 are the poorest once more with one, one, and two days respectively. The only current top-five Summer to not record any 23°C+ days was 1826, while 1947 also nicked one. Three of the top five, 1976, 1995, and 2006, recorded 24°C+ days. So in this respect it seems that 2018 is really quite different from more recent very hot Summers; it fits in much better with those of the 1800s, where the heat was much more consistent, but never quite achieving any utterly extraordinary spikes like those of early July 1976 or early August 1995.

Nope. Just means being at work is more bearable.

There were some very nice cloudscapes after the cold front passed— I took this photo a few minutes ago:

Interesting end to the ECM 12z, yesterday had the high pushing into the UK at the end of the run. This time pushing through, here T240: Interesting feature to the south as well.

Yep, tanning is not healthy at all.

Another good GEFS mean longer term..the 12z indicates increasing support for high pressure building in across the uk..As for next week, from what I can see it's a typical n / s split..best of the fine and warm weather across southern uk, generally cooler and more changeable further north but then towards the end of august and into early september the signs are encouraging for another warm anticyclonic spell..glass half full!

Where do you live ? In a set of zombie apocalypse!:)

Foul day. Strange reading those praising a November like day in August when you have 6 months of it coming up. 23c on Friday and 25c at the weekend with no rain - that’s better at least. A useable weekend for us week workers. Massive recovery of yellow grass and vegetation - as I said weeks ago to those having a panic attack because their lawn isn’t green, nature will balance out.

So much better than yesterday,18c,lovely fresh breeze,humidity low...something missing though...oh yes sweating and headaches! Wonderful summers day at last!

Delighted

I don't understand why there are doom and gloom comments, the GEFS 6z mean shows a north / south split next week, higher pressure and best weather further south but still a chance of some rain but the coolest and most changeable conditions further north and then there are strong signs that high pressure will become more dominant for most / all of the uk beyond next week with predominantly warm and settled weather.

Indeed, I was under the impression that it was an evolutionary adaptation: those with paler skin absorb more UV light leading to greater vitamin D production. Which, of course, makes perfect sense given average UV levels in the UK relative to other European countries.

A beautiful show of northern lights this morning over Sandsound, Shetland. Its a good start to our aurora season and looking forward for lots more. (Credit on pic)

Grain moving steadily off farm.Never seen it move this fast in my lifetime. Looks as though it will all be gone and in long term storeage by the end of August. An interesting contaminint are thousands of ladybirds presumably because there are a lot of aphids on the crop. Breeze set in this afternoon and started to really dry things up again. Currently 15c, clear and breezy.

Good Evening Everyone, Re last Friday's thunderstorms, I thought you may wish to read the article I have attached from my local newspaper's website. https://www.essexlive.news/news/essex-news/ball-fire-spotted-floating-outside-1902507 Kind Regards Dave

If it can hold off until it is actually useful, i.e November onward, then fine by me.

Getting sunburnt is not healthy, daily short exposure to sunlight is beneficial though. As with all things in life its about striking a balance, the pros and cons if you like. All things in moderation as the saying goes. And its now dark!

GEFS holding pretty steady today (and seeming very sure of itself!), EPS still all over the place in terms of ensemble spread. The bias adjusted versions shown above are both a couple of days quicker with the mean MJO cycle initiation time compared to the anadjusted. It will be interesting to see how much effect, if anything significant, adjustments to a quicker initiation have on the pattern, if they take place. Sometimes the bias adjustment gets it wrong, though with the Nino base state in place, they currently make sense to me. The 12z operational runs might well be at the sooner end of the scale, as they've allowed more in the way of ridging to reach across Europe, resulting in an extra day (or two in the far south) of warmer than average conditions compared to the preceding runs. There's now some considerable mid-Atlantic amplification being modelled next Thursday or Friday, in response to a major clash of airmasses over NE Canada giving rise to a very large and deep trough that amplifies the downstream pattern just when the ridge would otherwise head east to the UK. I'm unsure whether forcing from the tropics will entirely dictate whether this major storm actually comes about or not; chaotic variability might be enough to make or break it. Even with it coming about, the amplified ridge topples after 1-2 days and we see some ridging toward Scandinavia being explored, so I'm wondering if this could be the final hurdle to get past before we arrive at the return to a Nino-like pattern that has been sought after by heat/thunder enthusiasts ever since the last spell of supportive weather drew to a close on 7th August. If we can get there by next weekend, there will be one week left for the month to redeem itself, or at least make itself seem less of a shortfall on what could feasibly have been (had there not been such a strong CCKW so-timed as to prolong the 'Nino lull'). In many ways, knowing what could have been can be one of the worst things about being a meteorologist, as the most exciting or satisfying outcomes have a habit of not coming about. Much of late Feb through early August was a welcome respite from that! Let's not forget just how much 2018 has given us (well, most of us, depending on your tastes!) .

A lot of people in this country struggle to get a tan if they go outside; they just burn instead. Many people are wary of their health and as such will stay inside when necessary.

Felt lovely today with the cool breeze and pleasant temperature. More like May than what we have seen.

Don't disagree with that. Just don't like depressing wet days and warm cloudy days. In the past week, only Saturday has been decent.

But it's summer! Makes no sense!

The push of high pressure over the UK, which I mused about last night seems still to be on the cards although obviously it's late into the runs so could change. GEM at T240: GFS takes until T264: but looking at the rest of the run, it doesn't seem to push the high east of the UK to draw up significant heat. Still more runs needed.

Lovely to get some proper rain today in the SE. Very much needed!

Here's the forecast based on the 06z GFS Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg) 18.0C to the 16th... +1.2 (16.8: +0.3) 17.8C to the 17th... +1.0 (14.8: -1.7) 17.8C to the 18th... +1.0 (17.4: +0.8) 17.8C to the 19th... +1.0 (18.6: +1.7) 17.9C to the 20th... +1.1 (20.0: +3.3) 17.9C to the 21st... +1.1 (16.8: +0.4) 17.7C to the 22nd... +1.0 (14.9: -1.6) 17.6C to the 23rd... +0.9 (14.5: -1.6) 17.5C to the 24th... +0.8 (14.0: -2.1) 17.3C to the 25th... +0.6 (13.6: -2.2) It looks like a strong cooling trend kicking in around mid next week if the models are accurate. In the longer term the GFS would have the CET at about 16.8C by months end.

lovely steady rain for last 2 hours in Locksbottom.Maybe another 45mins and then the front will have passed through.After today we can expect a niceish 4 or 5 days with temps in low 20s.Surely that is good for most people?Amazing how my lawn has changed in last 7 days and without the intense heat it will continue to "green " up and the plants will start to rejuvenate as having natural rain is a better substitute than tap water.

Yes indeedy,very welcome. Certainly cleared the air.14.4c here,bit higher than you out in the sticks.

I ve heard August is the new September.

Wow - “so many people in this country have a very pale and unwell complexion” !!!

Yet the SAD sufferers in Summer like myself are just awaiting for lower light levels. My mood has improved over the last month, this Summer has been a real struggle at points. I’ve been lucky this year no real major depression unlike last summer so I’ll take that! Come early September I can start to drop down my medication and by October I’ll be happy as Larry!

and Simon's followup article https://socialmetwork.blog/2018/07/24/its-a-globalheatwave/

This morning's updated fax charts for the weekend and the ecm rainfall Nice 0600 sat image courtesy Dundee Satellite Receiving Station

Yeah, quite warm here too. Forecasts have been useless mostly again recently, for rain and temperatures.

Well unfortunately for heat lovers the ECM moves towards the GFS for late next week. High centred to the west of the UK rather than the east. Still largely settled but much cooler than the 0z.

ECM nice and fresh from the NW later next week . Polar opposites to this morning run . The summer is slowly petering out .

Clear the air? It’s been 21c and cloudy here all day. Nothing to clear.

Below I've listed all the days of the top nine Summers (all those of 17.00°C and above) that have exceeded 2018's highest daily mean of 22.5°C on the 27thJuly. 1826 (rank = 2) 27th June (22.8°C) 1846 (rank = 6) None, highest was 22nd June 1846 (22.0°C) 1933 (rank = 9) None, highest was 4th August 1933 (22.2°C) 1947 (rank = 8 ) 3rd June 1947 (23.0°C) 1976 (rank = 1) 28th June 1976 (22.6°C) 1st-7th July 1976 (22.9°C, 22.8°C, 24.6°C, 24.7°C, 23.9°C, 23.3°C, 22.6°C); part of a 12-day run from 26th June – 7th July above 22°C 1983 (rank = 7) 12th, 13th July 1983 (22.6°C, 22.7°C) 1995 (rank = 3) 31st July – 3rd August 1995 (23.4°C, 24.9°C, 24.6°C, 23.4°C) 2003 (rank = 4) 15th, 16th July 2003 (22.6°C, 22.7°C) 5th August 2003 (23.1°C) 9th August 2003 (23.9°C) 2006 (rank = 5) 2nd July 2006 (22.7°C) 19th, 20th July 2006 (24.5°C, 22.7°C) 25th, 26th July 2006 (22.7°C, 23.2°C)

The ECM NH Geopot anomalies for Sep/Oct/Nov: Notable -AO and perhaps even a weak -NAO, but average for the UK? Some PM influence maybe. As noted above, the Arctic positive height anomaly grows the further into Autumn we go, as does the negative anomaly over the UK: OND NDJ

Interesting, looking back on previous postings...From the 14th and 17th July respectively- *I've been looking at the longer range today. To me it looks like next weekend may be a flash in the pan for more northern areas with a more NW/SE divide appearing thereafter as the PFJ sinks further S. Regardless, the background pattern is now slowly shifting, this may be in fits and starts at present but it is evident that ridging from the SW is having a tougher and tougher time becoming as dominant than it has done over the past couple of months **longer range modelling looks fairly set on a westerly dominated August now ***I did say it looked increasingly like the background pattern was changing. When you rely on surface features to prolong the heat rather than upper features which are more entrenched like the large HP we saw earlier on in the summer, the whole pattern lies on shaky ground. In general there has been an overall decline in pressure (though in no way linear) for the past couple of weeks. To me it looks as though the Azores HP is having more and more issue with ridging in sufficiently. Sometimes it is possible to simply monitor the modelling, along with the general synoptic trend and get a grasp on where we are headed in the longer term. The modelling did fairly well in this instance in the longer term.

Personally I think folk are getting too stuck in the Schwabe cycles alone (which are the 11 yr cycle). They are imo of much less consequence alone compared to the bigger picture. We are entering minima from an already low point ie the cycle peak of cycle 24 is the lowest since cycle 5 hence this minima is going to be deep.....deeper than that of 07/08/09. (Pete re your AGW overwhelming forcing.....well you know my rebuttal of that and remember the calls by AGW brigade were not for a meridional/disrupted jetstream.). Interestingly it seems we are going to witness the result in our lifetimes.....and will end imo the argument either way. The sun continues to slumber and 07/08/09 was fairly unique......and this will surpass that and cycle 25 I propose will surpass this one, and extremes due to an ever increasing meandering jetstream will increase in starkness. Exciting times weather wise and am looking forward to the new solar rocket reports starting in about 3 months BFTP