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Outlook: Essentially unsettled with low pressure most influential, particularly over this weekend, but not particular cool with milder air being introduced. The current NH profile It's been a clear and pretty cool night in most places but through the night cloud has encroached from the south west courtesy of an approaching warm front. The cloud and patchy rain will move slowly north east during the morning with the rest of the country being sunny with relatively clear skies. The cloud and patchy rain will continue to track across the country during the afternoon as the warm front does same leaving much of the country in the warm sector but by evening the cold front will bring more sustained rainfall and increasing wind to the south west Overnight and through Sunday the low pressure associated with the fronts slowly fills over Ireland as the cold front makes slow progress east thus a pretty cloudy and wet day for many areas with some heavy bursts in the south but turning clearer in the west later behind the front. Some regional temp variations within this scenario. Monday will see slack low pressure over the country with a high pressure attempting to ridge in from the south west, but with the odd trough and front littered about resulting in sunshine and showers By Tuesday the ridge is quite influential in the south but systems are still winging around the norther edge thus tending to a N/S split as a frontal system brings cloud, patchy rain and strengthening winds to N. Ireland and Scotland and perhaps northern England. By Wednesday the NH profile has the upper trough to the west digging a fair way south and with ridging to the east this results in a fresh south westerly, the ridge no longer in play, airflow which advects warmer air into the UK, with particular emphasis on the south/southeast. But still very much a N/S split on the surface with low pressure to the north west and associated cold front bringing more rain and quite strong winds to N.Ireland and Scotland whilst the south stays dry and quite warm.

I saw a grand total of 34 meteors tonight! I saw one of the best fireballs of my life, it was bright green and very slow moving, flared white at the end, and had a smoky white tail. Absolutely breathtaking, to say the least.

Oh and for what it's worth, this will be added to the guidelines shortly..

Just got sent this image from my cousin in london What is it, a shelf or a wall cloud?

Current Atlantic SSTAs https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/primary/waves/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/orthographic=-15.40,53.01,819

It’s a good evening for Netflix

Ironically, Friday's cooler than it was on the 12z run of yesterday because of the trough being less progressive; the associated tropical maritime air doesn't reach us until overnight into Saturday. GFS was cooler because of less ridging so in this respect ECM is much better as the trend with the trough and ridge is more to the north and east by the weekend. You can really see the adjustment in the track of LP systems take place on this run as the new regime takes shape. GFS 12z did actually come very close to this; it just look a couple of days longer to weaken the upper level westerlies across the UK, which resulted in one of the lows out west taking an (unusual) due-east track across southern parts during the weekend, with the ridge build set back until that had cleared away. Still needs to find more amplification with the mid-Atlantic trough and Euro-UK ridge pattern, and probably about to fluff its lines as that low out west lifts out NE when it should remain near the Azores, but it's a fair bit closer than the 00z. Hoping for a kinder UKMO run tomorrow - this evening's was very aggressive with the eastward advance of main Atlantic trough - and for the ridge build through the UK from the southwest to trend stronger and more resilient for Sat-Mon across the modelling as a whole. These have been tough times, but I can still see the light at the end of the tunnel.

That's the 00z!

Some lovely late summer weather develops on the Gfs 12z operational as it becomes very warm with high pressure followed by increasing humidity from the near continent with thunderstorms bringing some flashes and bangs as we head towards the end of this memorable meteorological summer..it would provide a great finish to a great summer.☺

How come you forgot this bit? "increased risk of hot spells also returning" Just under 43 days of Summer left. September can be a beauty of a month for some very warm/hot weather.

Whilst some of us begin to break out of early hibernation- I noted todays 3 CFS runs for very late autumn indicating very weak stratospheric winds

Interesting latest met text update for rest of August into September, hinting at the 'chance' that summer(heat) maybe over.

Then I think you are going to be destined for further disappointments I'm afraid. We live in the UK, which has a wonderful variable climate, which offers something of interest to most throughout the year. I would suggest this type of change is not totally uncommon in this country during significant transitions between weather patterns.

first time since May that i've had to wear clothes

Quite spectacular storm in Rayleigh

Further to Tamara's excellent roundup of the situation: Another shift today toward a phase 5 MJO re-emergence, and there are now some EPS members which only take about a week to reach that point, even as others continue to be quite a way off from there a whole fortnight from now. That really highlights the huge uncertainty - no wonder the EPS clusters offer a wide variety of trough/ridge placements. Some amplification to the flow is a common theme flow, reflecting the Nino base state sending AAM upward from the current phase 4 GWO position. The theoretical 'lean' is toward those members reaching phase 5 within 7-10 days from now. With AAM likely rising before then, a ridge across S UK still seems a plausible outcome for next weekend. Hopefully the 12z runs will add confidence to this (...now I've gone and done it! ha).

We are well into August now and there is no sign whatsoever of heat wave conditions returning, sure some warm blips will come along but lets be honest, there has been a major pattern change. Its raining across many areas now, way different to the past months.

If I were trying to interpret the ecm mean tonight, which holds the 10c/12c 850 line quite high between D7 and D10 but on a very flat trajectory, I'd say we're going to get a short hot spell between next Saturday and the following Tuesday, but not staying hot for more than a couple of days. I'm guessing the flat mean masks timing issues on a front incoming for Monday or Tuesday. This prognosis would sit fairly well with all the input of the past 24 hours imo.

Only 25 c and slight cloud then

Foul ‘summer’ evening here

ECM T240 against the FV3 at same time, ECM first: At the moment I think the FV3 sits better with other output, so I'm going with that one! FIM9 at T198 for comparison: All promoting high pressure over the southern parts of the UK at Least.

This is exactly why I stick to the astronomical version. Everybody starts mentioning cultural variations of the seasons, that date back to when our calendars were different. It causes far too much confusion! I stick to the Met variation for the data on my website, just like the Met Office do, otherwise it'd never work properly. But in weather and climate terms, it will always be the astronomical version for me, personally.

I never understood why we when have got a meteorological definition of summer, people hang on to the astronomical definition? Further to that I think the astronomical definition is baloney, anyway. The sun is at its strongest from Beltane to Lughnasadh with the centre of this period being the solstice. So why is the 19th September considered within astronomical summer when the sun strength is about strong as late March and the 19th June, when the Sun is at its peak in strength is spring? So surely the astronomical summer should be Beltane to Lughnasadh, where the northern hemisphere gets the maximum length and intensity in sunlight for the year?

Weather looking quite good in our region from Tuesday onwards. No heatwave, but we should get plenty of dry, possibly sunny weather and some decent temperatures (22c-26c). Thursday could see some rain, but overall we’ve got a N/S split developing with the best of the weather over the SE.

Same again from all the runs this morning for next week - N/S split developing from Tuesday with sunny spells and warmer weather (low to mid 20s) in the south, more unsettled and cool in the north. All alreas could see some rain on Thursday as the jet takes a bit of a dip south (although the UKMO keeps this system slightly further north than other runs). Back to the N/S split again from Friday. So no return to widespread settled conditions or a heatwave over the next week, but much more typical British summer weather with the usual areas seeing the best of the weather (S/SE) and the usual areas seeing the worst (N/NW). Personally, as a heat lover in summer and being down in the SE, I can’t complain after the weather we’ve had. Today is a beautiful sunny day, after two awful wet days. Sunday and Monday look showery again, so from Tuesday I’ll be more than happy with sunny spells and temperature in the low to mid 20s.

For me say's it all!

Regarding the cycle it's actually only an average of 22 years though, it's actually supposed to represent the end of each sunspot cycle (a complete cycle actually being two) which does vary a little so 1995 and 2008 for example saw solar minimum with the following being hale winters. Before that we get 1986 (cold winter afterward), 1964 (cold winter afterward), 1944 (abnormal but cold overall winter afterward - also saw a 7C Feb), 1923 (cool winter afterward), 1902 (average to mild) and 1878 (stonker of a winter afterward), 1856 saw a cold winter overall following though 1833 saw a horror show following. So there's something to it probably but to be honest it simply reflects the fact that low solar activity in the UK does disproportionately increase the chance of a cooler than average month. Looking at the top 20 spotless years and the following winters and using 3.6C, 3.4C and 3.4C as our marks then we get 55% of Decembers, 40% of January's and 30% of February's below those values. If we narrow to the top 10 for the winter of 2019-2020 then that becomes 50-50-40.

Next 72 hours accumulated rainfall chart from WRF 0.05d: West is best if it's rainfall you are looking for but everyone gets wet at some time.

Lovely sunny start to the day but that didn't last long with the late morning through to late afternoon dominated by heavy, slow moving showers. Feeling cool with a max temperature of 16C even though winds were light. This evening it feels decidedly chilly outside with the skies clearing quickly - though a few showers still about, these looking quite picturesque in the setting sun...

Convective skies today

That front from here in Cuxton.

Quite spectacular cells embedded in the line South Essex. I also had a very interesting cell with pronounced gust front pass near my location. Gust front of large cell with intense rainfall. Back of the line of storms, south Essex, There were really low cloud bases on these.

Just passed through Southend

Despite attempts earlier to get a good pic from a very special vantage point in the centre of London - I only managed this The rain was quite something

The last few mornings have felt nice and fresh,got down to 7c early this morning. I'm so glad the near constant warmth of this summer is all over bar the shouting imo. Not saying any warmth is over but the worst or best (depending on your point of view) is now over.

The ecm also has the upper trough to the west on Wednesday thus a similar scenario to the above post but the trough continues east with a strong jet on it's southern flank portending a much cooler day generally on Thursday and wet and windy in the north

Nothing substantially cool in the ten day range however the GFS18z (bar about 48 hours) has the Atlantic firmly in control and even tries building heights to the north around day 10.

From just across the pond from Tihanny the Siofok live cam pointing NW-ish,lightning visable on here now. https://balticlivecam.com/cameras/hungary/siofok/siofok-main-square/ there is some nice CG's visable now.

Lovely pics. Thanks for sharing.

Summer still with us, but these ever encroaching darker evenings are a sure sign that Autumn is just around the corner for us all.

Day 2 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 11 Aug 2018 - 05:59 UTC Sun 12 Aug 2018 ISSUED 20:15 UTC Fri 10 Aug 2018 ISSUED BY: Chris A transient ridge of higher pressure will keep most of Britain dry through Saturday, however a warm front and following warm sector will overspread Ireland and southwestern parts of Britain by Saturday evening and overnight. Rain and the potential of some embedded elevated convection will bring a low end risk of a few lightning strikes as the cold front moves in during the early morning hours of Sunday. At this stage the risk of lightning seems to be only around 10%. http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-08-11

A pretty illustrative overview in the short range of the ecm, which could be used as a summation of the whole run, of the two major influences competing within this pattern, relative to the UK. The trough/energy exiting northern Canada east bound and high pressure to the south attempting to puhh north with the strong thermal gradient/jet dividing the airmasses. How they phase determines the detail of the weather over the UK as the run progresses and you can see how this can vary relatively early on in the rruns by comparing the gfs and ecm.

A bunch of sniping posts have been removed, as have comments about people not being entitled to have an opinion about the weather at the moment. Some folks need to grow up a tad and accept that sometimes other people are different and enjoy different weather types rather than getting up in arms about it.

The weather is definately changeingnfor the better - convectively speaking - but it’s was still mainly pulse storms today - hoping for something more organised on Sunday - and I also won’t be stuck at work

Newcastle METAR reports funnel cloud in the vicinity.

good afternoon ladies and gents. well the gardens well and truly got a soaking here in stockton. very heavy rain, even some hail (around garden pea size) and a few decent cracks of thunder, never seen no lightning. just went outside and seen this nice anvil...

Clearer weather has already arrived in the west and the heavy showers in the east should also clear into the North Sea this evening leaving a cool clear night in most places. But in the early hours cloud and patch rain will encroach the south west to be followed later in the morning by more substantial rain fall which will track north east. There is apparently still some uncertainty with timing of this so at the moment just a glance at the Icon't take.

The 500mb chart and surface analysis for 1200 and the 1500 geostationay

As Mat Hugo pointed out in a tweet the main reason for these hefty showers is the upper trough and associated vorticity and a little surface heating. The chart from Alice Bentley's excellent site. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/abentley/realtime.html And the high res. MODIS at 1100 UTC

This morning's fax updates seem to be pushing the warm sector and cold front through a tad quicker on Sunday and the 500mb anom. and 300mb jet more or less sums up the ecm. Unsettled with the airmasses over the Atlantic having their usual phasing battle.