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Scattergun ensembles do not mean this, as expressed in a typically over dramatized and extrapolated ahead context as given here Which leads on appropriately to a rather more objective, helpful and considered post: I think your analysis sums up well why there is no reason to over dramatize or extrapolate ahead the present pattern for the whole of this month. An examination of latest EC clusters play with the continuing theme of Atlantic trough and downstream ridge and the truth is there are only modest adjustments required in the solutions that dig the trough further south to put a subtly different complexion on the pattern. This does, its true, mainly apply further south at least to begin with but ramifications over wider distance still apply and have support. Mindful of the fact that the GWO has quickly returned to Phase 4 after a full orbit previously into Nino Phase 5 in late July …. . ….as reflection of how angular momentum is embarking on a long term trend to different territory than the previous two years, then its a matter for the tropical signal to add that small extra bit of extra downstream amplification to accentuate the trough/ ridge pattern and adjust the ensemble suite pendulum onto further support for the greater warmer advection solutions that already exist and reflect the readiness of the anomalous warmth that remains very close to our shores throughout this more changeable spell to spread back across the channel. The degrees of adjustment here are really quite small to make subtle but quite real differences within how the macro pattern affects the micro UK pattern. A good example of why this type of non numerical modelling diagnostic approach is a macro scale guide and not intended to try to second guess detail at distances which is always highly unwise anyway when NWP itself has a spread of solutions within a same theme. Hence just one real expression and interpretation of ensembles that are scattergun - but better explained than simply taking one solution as influential for weeks ahead for the sake of the pessimism attached to it, or just simply plucked out of the air for the pessimistic gut feeling associated with it. Even as it stands, taking a look at the graphical spread of solutions from the EC 0z, these are not exactly a terrible spread of London ensembles for what is the least underwhelming passage of weather in a summer that has been truly remarkable for its absence of anything like it, Yes, it is London representative for the UK which looks set to see regional varieties abound in the coming days, but it does look like the operational, even within its own cluster may be rather too aggressive with the greatest influence of the trough later next week. And that suggestion also allows for the temperature gradient issue correctly pointed out. Usual caveats anyway here with ensemble suites exists - based on them being merely snapshots in time. The "worst" solutions here are also evident within the GEFS suite, and which take the upper trough furthest east - are based on the very lowest angular momentum side of the envelope which has the tropical signal furthest west. Much as discussed recently. Even if this did happen, it would simply be a delay to recovery and hence why some professionals will rightly currently be hedging bets in terms of their extended forecasts. The effect of any suggestion of delay in some quarters on this forum however, seems to take on more magnitude than reality - simply because we are coming close to the final two weeks of official summer and some kind of irrational "time is running out" extravagancy takes over But the weather does not eschew the enchanting human habits of a weather forum that has self imposed cut-off dates - and if it wants to, then September as in reality we know, may quite easily be a further extension of what has largely preceded it in overall weather type this summer. Much as last September, in contrast, ushered in an earlier feel to autumn than accustomed to in recent years. The Global Wind Oscillation will be the best guide here to gauge the progress of the tropical signal and the subsequent impacts on jet stream wind-flow in the extra topics. Based on its current evolution and associated AAM parity, and based on likely future tropical>extra tropical evolution, that continues, until of if any evidence to the contrary appears, to suggest that some model correction to some of these coolest and most unsettled solutions lasting longest - will see them outed as the more counter intuitive. That doesn't mean the current changeable spell isn't supported within the 10 day period, but it does mean that distinct regional variations may well occur within this time and it also means any extrapolative negatively worded suggestions out to the end of the month (and even beyond) do not, at this time, have any justification - beyond taking opportunity of some less favourable weather to over agitate the closer perspective... -and of course the thread itself.

Oh and for what it's worth, this will be added to the guidelines shortly..

Distinctly chilly here at just 10C. Looks like convection is off to a good start though, could be a fun day for storm lovers. A mate flew in to Heathrow this morning and sent me a couple of snaps from the air. Nice line of Cb’s ??

Further to Tamara's excellent roundup of the situation: Another shift today toward a phase 5 MJO re-emergence, and there are now some EPS members which only take about a week to reach that point, even as others continue to be quite a way off from there a whole fortnight from now. That really highlights the huge uncertainty - no wonder the EPS clusters offer a wide variety of trough/ridge placements. Some amplification to the flow is a common theme flow, reflecting the Nino base state sending AAM upward from the current phase 4 GWO position. The theoretical 'lean' is toward those members reaching phase 5 within 7-10 days from now. With AAM likely rising before then, a ridge across S UK still seems a plausible outcome for next weekend. Hopefully the 12z runs will add confidence to this (...now I've gone and done it! ha).

The models really don't have much of a light to guide them for next week. I can understand why they're so hesitant to kick off the MJO in the Pacific rather than west of there; the SSTs anomalies in the C and E Pac are mostly within a few tenths *C of zero, meaning a lot of the expectation is down to the tropical-extratropical interactions taking place, which the models have a harder time handling. It also makes it harder for us humans to anticipate how fast or not things will progress. I think the GFS 00z and ECM 00z captured the soonest and latest 'reasonable' limits, though, in terms of how soon we start to see high pressure gaining more influence from the southwest. I'm not convinced by how far east they're taking the Atlantic trough mid-late next week, as the jet stream is being modelled to be unusually strong for a non-Nina base state, but I can see how it could be a result of the Atlantic SST anomaly pattern which has a lot of negatives northwest of positives, enhancing the temp gradient that the jet stream has to work with. However, as long as the main trough moves north of east, we can still get the pressure rise from the southwest (GFS 06z getting all mixed-up at this stage; one for the bin). No denying this is an irritating time if you were hoping for the 'lull' in Nino tropical cycles to be brief with a quick resumption of anomalously warm conditions. Back in late July, that was my anticipation, but that was based on the tropical Pacific SSTs widely reaching the +0.5*C mark by around now. This should kick those anomalies up a bit in the C Pacific, but the fact we're waiting until almost mid-month for it is among the main reasons for this unfortunately lengthy 'lull'. Sure, it still may turn out not too bad in the south, but I'm sparing thoughts for those up north who have had the cooler, changeable/unsettled weather for longer already, and look to be in the thick of it next week as well.

Storm & Convective Forecast Issued 2018-08-10 07:33:55 Valid: 10/08/2018 00z - 11/08/2018 00z THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK - FRIDAY 10TH AUG 2018 Synopsis Upper trough extends south across NE Atlantic and British Isles on Friday morning and will edge east to be across the North Sea / Norwegian Sea by late evening, further east upper ridge extends NE from SE Europe into western Russia. A cyclonic westerly surface flow will cover the UK, unstable to surface heating. ... ENGLAND, WALES and S SCOTLAND ... An unseasonably deep and cold upper trough will cross the UK today, with 500mb temps as low as -25C, these cold mid-level temperatures atop a moist surface airmass heated in sunny spells will create steep lapse rates. Instability will be greatest this morning across the west before subsiding here into the afternoon when CAPE increases across central, southern and eastern England this afternoon, 400-800 j/kg range during peak heating. The passage of the upper trough will create large scale ascent beneath and ahead of it, before heights rise across the west in its wake this afternoon. So heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms are likely from the word go this morning across southern Scotland, NW England, Wales and SW England, before heavy showers and scattered thunderstorms develop further east across England through the day, as the upper trough advances east and surface heating increases instability. W/NWly jet streak punching east across southern Britain will yield 0-6km shear values in the range of 40 knots - the strong upper winds and modest vertical shear will favour organisation of showers and storms into line segments across south Wales and SW England this morning, then central-S and SE England along with East Anglia into the afternoon. Mid-level dry air intrusion accompanying the jet streak will enhance convection, with some strong storms possible, the dry air also increasing potential for strong winds aloft to lower to the surface - bringing the risk of isolated strong wind gusts. Also hail may accompany storms, with potential for hail stones of 1-2cm in stronger cells, there is also potential for localised flash-flooding. Some backing of surface winds is noted on recent obs across SW England before winds switch westerly, indicative of trough passage, which suggests some strong low-level shear potential which may enhance the risk of stronger updrafts rotating into storms, so can't rule out a brief tornado too across S England. Further north across England and southern Scotland - showers and storms will become increasingly confined towards the east in the afternoon, as heights rise to the west and convection weakens across Wales, N. Ireland and NW England, any showers and storms towards the east will still have the potential to produce hail, gusty winds and localised flooding. https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/uk/convective

GFS is acting like an excited puppy; sure it makes a mess sometimes, but it keeps trying to find ways to please you in between. UKMO the older, more restrained dog but willing to entertain the puppy's ideas at least a little bit...

Very interesting convective skies this afternoon, not seen this for a while. Bit cool out, just 18C currently with a very blustery SW’ly blowing.

Really? Some are never satisfied. This has been the best summer we've had for many a decade, yet still people have cause to grumble. Depressing my weeble. Two wet days in months, ha ha.

Never seen it like this before, so cool!

Got this beauty outside the back of mine at the moment. No sign of a spark.

A mate flying in to Heathrow this morning took these pics of a line of Cb’s to the SW. look quite developed already.

A gorgeous day here with sunny ints and a high of 19.6C. Currently some light showers around giving great rainbows in the sunshine. Pictures didn’t really capture this double rainbow with all colours clear in the main bow.

We'll be getting into what I call the Dog Days soon. Traditionally the dog days of summer are when the dog star, or Sirius, is visible in the sky, and coincided with the hottest, most sultry days of the summer. I believe farmers may refer to it a lot, I'm not sure. However, my idea of the dog days are those late days of summer, where you began to sense the season was on the wane. The last of the heat was still in the sun, and you can still get some nice weather, but the novelty of glorious sunny days has begun to wear off (as if it ever could in Scotland!), the school holidays have ended - meaning delight for some, but I associated it with the foreboding of my youth of having to return to class. It's like nature is saying the fun is over soon, and you feel like you're just waiting for autumn to make it's first appearance. Obviously a bit early for autumn talk, and there should hopefully be a good month or so of mainly decent enough weather to go, but just thought I'd make a post about what this time of year means to be and the associations that it brings in my head. In some ways I find it quite pleasant, giving the chance to make the most of the remaining light nights, and in better summers such as this, you hope that they will never end.

The end is nigh.

A bunch of sniping posts have been removed, as have comments about people not being entitled to have an opinion about the weather at the moment. Some folks need to grow up a tad and accept that sometimes other people are different and enjoy different weather types rather than getting up in arms about it.

interesting day today weather wise. warm, rainy a bit of sun and a few cracks of thunder much more pleasant to work out in today, rained a bit, put jacket on, job done. Now having a beer in the garden with blue sky and sunny. How I love our British weather

A little taster from today and yesterday that UK summer days can throw autumn at you just like that.... Thankfully our beautiful summer this year has eased the pain of just how crap the past couple of days have been. Driving home from work just now through that shower that passed through Bedford - 11c, that’s right 11c.... insulting! Only managed 16c today in any sunshine. Would love the warmth & dry to return - how anyone can prefer this dank over what has been, is beyond me, but as I said before ‘each to their own’ The August curse looks to be in full swing...

Sorry, but low twenties Celsius in August with lightish winds and sunshine still feels pleasant/warm, regardless of the temperature it got to previously. The acclimatisation required isn't that severe for those conditions to feel cool. Secondly, I wasn't talking about today, which granted has felt somewhat cooler in periods of rain, but warm in sunshine in between for those who have had those sunny breaks.

Nice crisp line of convection seen looking north from here near Croydon associated with line of storms over N London Pano of the line of storms that moved through London area earlier looking north and west from local park view point before they came through.

Here's the forecast based on the 06z GFS Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg) 18.5C to the 10th... +1.6 (14.0: -2.8) 18.3C to the 11th... +1.3 (15.9: -0.8) 18.2C to the 12th... +1.3 (17.9: +1.1) 18.1C to the 13th... +1.3 (17.2: +0.9) 18.1C to the 14th... +1.2 (16.8: +0.1) 18.0C to the 15th... +1.2 (17.7: +0.9) 18.0C to the 16th... +1.2 (17.5: +1.0) 17.9C to the 17th... +1.1 (16.9: +0.4) 17.9C to the 18th... +1.1 (16.5: -0.1) 17.7C to the 19th... +0.9 (15.8: -1.1) Close to average temperatures forecast overall for the next 10 days, which results in a gradual fall in the CET. At this stage, anything from close to average to top 5 warmest is still possible.

Just looking through the GEFS 6z I will be very surprised (and disappointed) if we don't get another warm / very warm anticyclonic spell during the second half of this month because currently there's plenty of support for it! Looking at the latest mean, things do gradually improve.☺

The current NH profile has a trough over the the UK, centred to the north of Scotland with a high cell over eastern Europe with a fair bit of energy traversing a fluid Atlantic. In more detail. The low that brought rain and much cooler temps to the south east yesterday is now plying it's trade in Scandinavia leaving the UK in a brisk unstable westerly wind. Thus a a bright and cooler day for all but the likelihood of frequent heavy showers, perhaps thundery, mainly concentrated in the west at first but spreading east during the day. Within the flow there could well be longer period of rain where the showers coalesce. The showers will die out during the evening and overnight as a very transient ridge builds heralding a much cooler night for all and a bright start to Saturday. But to the west of Ireland an area of low pressure is getting organized and moving slowly east and a weak front associated with the system quite quickly brings cloud and some patchy rain into the south west in the early hours before the big guns bring more prolonged rain and strengthening winds arrive later in the day and move north east across the country. Much of northern, central and eastern areas will remain dry, certainly until late in the day. The fronts and more concentrated rain continue to traverse the country overnight and through Sunday morning before leaving much of the country in a brisk south westerly warm sector on Sunday which portends cloud and patchy rain, albeit becoming a tad milder. Clearer conditions later in areas where the cold front has passes through. Frankly Monday dawns with a very messy scenario, best illustrated I feel by a quick overview of the fluidity of the Atlantic and the phasing of the warm/cold airmasses. Which all boils down on Monday to another day of sunshine and showers over the UK as low pressure starts to give way to another transient ridge, with temps picking up a tad in the south east. The ridge is transient because by Tuesday another frontal system has encroached northern areas bringing more cloud and patchy rain whereas further south, by marked contrast, a fine and quite warm day should ensue. The NH profile at T120

People have been truly spoilt this summer with the amount of hot, sunny weather (if heat is your thing). We have now had a small number of typical UK summer days, with sunny periods, cloudier at times with the odd shower, lightish winds and temps around the low twenties celsius for most and there are people talking about how autumnal it feels and the need for coats...lol. God help those people when proper autumnal weather actually arrives!

That front from here in Cuxton.

...and from the other side...

Here’s how it looked from Gravesend:

“The tornado-like cloud” Arrrrarrg! just say ‘funnel cloud’ you gits

To my North East.

Don't let nostalgia fool you, a quick look back of the stats from both 1995 and 1976 at London Heathrow & Gatwick Airport showcase that there were about 4 or 5 days in those summers that were sub 18c and raining during the day. This summer particularly because of the fantastic May still sits alongside those two summers at the moment. With that said, I'm really missing being able to be outside like on Monday & Tuesday, now this is only possible with a fleece which is never fun, and you can forget sitting outside when everything is so rain soaked.

Incredibly black skies to the east of the Excel centre when we came out at 3pm must have been the back edge of the storms everyone seems to have experienced; I missed out! As @stainesbloke posted, there are some convective looking skies to the south west of London now, fingers crossed for more of the top-up for nature and evening storms for us. And then we can enjoy another round of sunshine:) PS, we were NOT attending the Love Island Live event!

Manchester Summer Indices Summers in order with the best at the top 1976 301 1995 298 2018 291 (up to 9th August) 1983 278 1955 277 1911 274 1984 271 1959 269 1975 268 1949 267 1989 262 1947 255 1933 251 1901 249 1921 249 2003 247 2013 247 1925 246 2006 246 1996 245 2018 245 <--------if rest of summer had a mean maximum of 15C, zero sunshine and rain everyday.

It's called acclimatisation - of course average weather is going to feel cool compared to what we've become accustomed to over the past 2 months. It's no more spoilt than you lot moaning because a mere 2 months of out of our usual cloudy/rainy year has been interrupted with something that actually resembles a proper summer. And typical summer weather? It's currently 12 degrees and raining here. There is nothing 'typical' about that. i don't care who you are, 12 degrees at 2:50pm in August is cold.

Yet another very encouraging T+240 Ecm 00z ensemble mean showing the azores high ridging in for the last third of August.☺

Well after a lovely couple of weeks holiday in les Alpes-Maritimes (again) for the end of July, back in Scotland it's been just a return to normal Scots summer weather.... as everyone is quite aware of, so not much to add really. My lawn has recovered; big brown patches when I got back from France are green again, particularly with clover (which I learned from @Northernlights is deep rooted). Some plants seem to be giving it a shot at a second round of flowering if they can squeeze one in; the first round being tempered by drought. Apples seems seriously well advanced; lots of them, big / juicy, and already turning red. The trees were starting to dump a lot of undeveloped fruit a few weeks back, presumably due to the drought, but then the recent rain seems to have given them a boost.

Yesterday's provisional mean is 15.8°C. Taking all the provisional daily means for August as correct that would put our run of daily means at or above 16°C at 45 days, edging 1783's record (highlighted in the July thread) of 44 days. The daily mean for the 8th is currently down as 16.6°C, so it's still possible that we only equal the 1783 record in the event that this particular date takes a large downward hit come month's end.

i live in rugby and got a text from the lovely lady saying she got thunder as i was at work.i was a at work at the royal mail site Royal Mail Distribution Facility at Danes Way, Daventry International Freight Terminal, Northamptonshire.19:35 I had text her and said i not surprised as it chucking it down here by 19:45 the sound of the raid on the metal/perspex roof waas incredible it was like listening to white noise at full volume.people where looking at each other laughing,myself included as you couldn't hear yourself speak due to the intensity of the the rain.by that time it was thunder and lightning every couple of mins or so with what seem to increase in frequency.people out on the ramp filming the rain.20:00 the rain had stopped.soy i decided to go to the carpark for a vape and oh wow was i in for a treat.The rain wall had passed and what seem to be the battery of the storm was giving a wonderful display of vivid white lightning straight in front of me.Just to the right the clearly defined CB.beautiful cloud to cloud jagged bolts zig zagging across with the sun right behind me as the cloud clearing the sun.That was probably the most photogenic storm i've seen in daylight hours.I was in awe of such wonderful display of lightning and cloud definition but sadded couldn't get any pictures of such beauty. I Wasn't expecting Anything as nothing forecast but what a pleasant surprise.

Much cooler thank goodness so slept somewhat better. Grass and other plants already reacting. Must get some of my potatoes dug up before it rains

Very true,3 months of drought and virtually unbroken sunshine should di most people in reality. This isn't Spain or Italy!! Spectacular cool diwn though,only 10c here this morning,fabulously fresh,lawns and patks ciming back to life. Great to see. Heavy showers and thunderstorms forecast for this area today.

Not been about much as been on hol's in Europe and doing some lurking! Love from Croydon...(actually Titsey Hill, but close enough). Only a little storm and i was a bit late but got a few.... )

Loading grain this morning 24 hours after cutting it. Quality is not good and would not be accepted in a normal year but in a year with a worldwide severe shortage of grain every grain is needed. Yields are down a bit but prices are going up every day on the grain futures markets so that will help.. So after getting a text telling me the bad results the frown of PHT ( pre harvest tension) has disappeared to be replaced with a smile as the quality goalposts were moved. Note the brown grass. Fresher today with a maximum of 16c

Agree, like not appearing until at least November!

Should warm up after today but it won’t be settled for a few days. After that....I don’t have a scooby. Met Office seem to think it’ll settle down after mid month. As long as any autumnal weather actually stays in autumn, no major issue for me.

The Hadley version of EWP was just marginally higher than the NCIC version, 39.9 mm. Nevertheless, this will generate slightly different scores for the alternate scoring version over in the contest thread. Look for an update by noon 10th or so. I am still on the road trip, got some better internet connections in the city of Grand Junction CO (current temp 37 C). Some like it hot.

OMG What a storm - hail torrential rain- where the hell did this come from? Its insane and unexpected - flabbergasted

My god, Don't get me started on them... Here's a sneak peak of the next article's headline (Of course, written by Nathan Rao): 'BRITAIN TO BE SUBMERGED UNDER THE SEA, AFTER -75C 'ULTRA FREEZE', SET TO HIT ON BOXING DAY THIS YEAR.'

Quite a lively thunderstorm just passed through here near Croydon in south London, thunder and lightning getting more frequent as it pulls away east, this the scene to the west before it arrived

You are along the right lines there @summer blizzard, and the bias-adjusted ECMF is showing more appetite for a phase 4 emergence today, though I see 5 as being a more likely starting point. Still a wide spread in the solutions though, and by the looks of the charts for our part of the world, the ECM 12z is among those that still kick off the MJO in the Indian Ocean. It was good, though, to see the UKMO 12z move a little toward recent GFS runs. If we can get the MJO heading toward phase 5 rather than 3 or 4, that will help to keep the main Atlantic trough from making it east of Iceland. Otherwise, we likely watch that trough advance right into Scandinavia with ridging from the southwest taking a few days longer to start getting in on the act properly as the MJO orbits into phase 5 having started out west of there.