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The more eastern main Atlantic trough solutions continue to seem more suspect to me than the more western ones, based on the models moving the tropical setup further away from the Nino configuration than seems reasonable. Ex-Bertha adds uncertainty in that it may interact with the main Atlantic trough in a way that brings about a 'trail' of lower SLP down near the Azores, displacing high pressure across us by late next week in the manner of the GFS 06z, but equally, it could remain independent of the Atlantic trough, allowing that feature to be much flatter in shape. Even in that flatter scenario, though, I'd be surprised to see the main trough move as far east as the ECM 00z takes it. I'm of the impression that we'll have a fair bit of tropical maritime air coming our way next week, but with LP close enough by to wring some spells of rain out of that, particularly in the northwest where it could be very wet overall. Mild to very mild nights, but away from the south, near to below average daytime highs keeping indoor temperatures comfortable for those who don't like it hot. Then for the final third of the month, we move into 'Nino-forcing proper', with a good chance of exchanging westerlies for a continental flow (for more than just the odd day). Models still need to adapt their tropical outlooks a bit for that to start being represented better.

Not been about much as been on hol's in Europe and doing some lurking! Love from Croydon...(actually Titsey Hill, but close enough). Only a little storm and i was a bit late but got a few.... )

Over the ENE from east Dorking

A few screen grabs from iPhone video of storm as it cleared east of Croydon, unfortunately the DSLR wasn’t charged up this evening

Just going through photos from Essex the other week and something struck me - it’ll be a while before we get scenes like this again - the yellow grass against the deep dark grey/blue skies - amazing to see: Edit: ok it might have been wheat here - but in other pics it was defo yellow grass

Quite a lively thunderstorm just passed through here near Croydon in south London, thunder and lightning getting more frequent as it pulls away east, this the scene to the west before it arrived

Thunder and lightning to the north east of Dorking and this to the west

Loading grain this morning 24 hours after cutting it. Quality is not good and would not be accepted in a normal year but in a year with a worldwide severe shortage of grain every grain is needed. Yields are down a bit but prices are going up every day on the grain futures markets so that will help.. So after getting a text telling me the bad results the frown of PHT ( pre harvest tension) has disappeared to be replaced with a smile as the quality goalposts were moved. Note the brown grass. Fresher today with a maximum of 16c

Been the sunniest June and July period on record and then add in May as well. Truely exceptional.

That’s great. like you I love hot weather, just not the oppressive heat we’ve had recently. If everyone liked the same thing this forum would be boring

Was a surprise to see a storm pass directly over me for a change, was some very strong winds in the core with poplar tree in our back garden getting bent horizontal in top half at one point, the lightning really ramped up as it clears, was videoing it so hopefully will get some stills of lightning in a bit. I thought it maybe a long shot forecasting earlier today a storm risk in the southeast today, paid off though https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/uk/convective

Aboyne in NE Scotland fell to an unusually cold 0.5c overnight

No change to the outlook from yesterday so this post is essentially an update on last evening's posts. The expected rain in the south east arrived during the night as can be seen on the 0200 chart and 0300 sat. image This rain will persist all day in the south east as the developing wave over Biscay tracks north east into the North Sea. Heavy outbreaks are possible at times and quite how far west the rain gets is still dependent on the precise track of the low. One thing is for sure with the rain and a fresh onshore wind it will feel much cooler than of late. Elsewhere heavy showers will get going, particularly in the north west but all western areas will be effected. The low continues its journey north east overnight and through Friday initiating some quite inclement weather into southern Scandinavia and leaving the UK in a fresh WNW airflow. Thus showers will be the order of the day becoming frequent and heavy in places and quite lengthy if they merge. Quite a cool day with temps shading below average. Overnight Friday a very transient ridge builds but out west in the Atlantic a large area of low pressure is getting organized and by lunchtime a myriad of fronts associated with this are lining up over Ireland so that after a bright start to the day cloud and rain with strengthening winds will sweep in ans effect most areas by midnight Sunday. Sunday finds the low west of Ireland with various fronts traversing the country on a fresh south westerly wind thus intermittent rain in most places (I'll skip the rainfall charts) with sunny intervals Even a little warm spot over East Anglia. By Monday there is a slack area of low pressure over the UK with the odd front/trough littered about all of which portends sunny intervals and showers and relatively warm in the much lighter winds And the NH profile as the new week gets underway

There you go Brontphiles, did state the other day that heat doesn't necessarily equate to thunder!! Now pressure has fallen, we now have a more conducive atmosphere, to develop some electrical activity. Thunder rolling around here in Lee, S.E.London. This Brontophobe will delay going to bed, until the thunder has passed!! Tomorrow the Residential Care Home, where my wife works in Chislehurst, have kindly agreed to allow Colette to take me to work with her. But it will still be t-shirt and shorts, the order of the day, as the residents don't like the windows to be opened or fans to be on, as they are well advanced in years and feel the cold, in their bones. Meanwhile the poor staff, sweat buckets!! Will take my lap-top in with me and keep an eye on the weather plus update my "Fantasy" U.S. golf Competition. That should be enough of a distraction, should the weather turn thundery. Think the real reason my wife is taking me with her, is that she has her eye on a room there, for this 'ole "raspberry." Has the thunder, passed yet? Regards, Tom.

quality little storm

Join the club! This evening has been like finding a £20 note in jeans you haven’t worn for 6 months

I haven't flipped to anything, just describing what the models are showing that's all.

We'll be getting into what I call the Dog Days soon. Traditionally the dog days of summer are when the dog star, or Sirius, is visible in the sky, and coincided with the hottest, most sultry days of the summer. I believe farmers may refer to it a lot, I'm not sure. However, my idea of the dog days are those late days of summer, where you began to sense the season was on the wane. The last of the heat was still in the sun, and you can still get some nice weather, but the novelty of glorious sunny days has begun to wear off (as if it ever could in Scotland!), the school holidays have ended - meaning delight for some, but I associated it with the foreboding of my youth of having to return to class. It's like nature is saying the fun is over soon, and you feel like you're just waiting for autumn to make it's first appearance. Obviously a bit early for autumn talk, and there should hopefully be a good month or so of mainly decent enough weather to go, but just thought I'd make a post about what this time of year means to be and the associations that it brings in my head. In some ways I find it quite pleasant, giving the chance to make the most of the remaining light nights, and in better summers such as this, you hope that they will never end.

Can everybody please cross their fingers for a moment, in regards to a clear night on Sunday for the Perseids? The forecast isn't looking great atm

Had gardener come and sort out our jungle of a garden, this morning and he's made a brilliant job of it!! He was recommended by Age Concern and charged a very reasonable price. It hasn't been cut, since last Summer and despite the lack of rain, as you can imagine, was wildly overgrown. I'm sixty-two and due to a compromised balance, from a stroke in 2015, it's not possible for me to get involved with it now. Also, my wife has serious health issues, that prevent her from managing it, too. It was so nice this afternoon, to sit in our lounge, with door wide open onto patio. Still had to have fan on though, as heat takes for an age to disperse, in our tiny house!! Looking out onto the garden, this afternoon, the weather looked perfect, plenty of sunshine with a few fair weather cumulus, floating about, low humidity and a refreshing breeze, with evidently temps in the mid-20's. Perfect Summer weather!! Really wouldn't mind if it stayed like this until October now, IMO much better than that oppressive heat we've experienced, for so long. Looking forward to a decent night's sleep, tonight, in our much cooler bedroom. Regards, Tom.

Posted over in the storm and convective discussion before the storm arrived in Croydon, nice shelf cloud on approach , was some strong winds in the core bending the poplar tree in back garden horizontal in top half of tree, lightning got quite frequent for a cool airstream storm as it cleared. Nice way to end a grey and wet day and I guess the end of the long drought.

First ‘proper’ rain since early May, other than 3 minute shower on 26 May and a 5 minute downpour on Sunday 29 July. Puddles on pavements splash splash, splish splosh. Happy happy except big puppy Labrador. Who took one look at the rain, looked up at me, with his acquired Princess Di heartbroken gaze, and got into his bed. A less technical update tomorrow

Thunder and lightning in Bexleyheath

Evening Lightning Lover. I only moved down here two years ago and I'm still trying to find the best spots to go to when the weather gets interesting. Please enlighten me ! After all the heavenly rain we had today, when I popped out for some vino this evening I saw the most amazing clouds. I ended up down in the end car park of Hastings old town. I love it down there. I just love Hastings

no change.... the 6-10 dayer supports the north atlantic trough more for that time period but the 8 - 14 dayer is unchanged. no significant troughing, no significant ridging, just bog standard westerly conditions which for mid august arent too bad. but no return to heat on these charts. (other then transitory blasts if that)

A storm is rolling around us in Merstham, just had the most heaviest downpour of rain and hail. Thunder crashing around and lightning flashes.

Day 2 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 10 Aug 2018 - 05:59 UTC Sat 11 Aug 2018 ISSUED 19:03 UTC Thu 09 Aug 2018 ISSUED BY: null A sharp upper trough will move from west to east across the British Isles on Friday bringing the potential for widespread convection/showers. Ridging/rising heights will follow the trough brining drier, more settled conditions into Ireland and eventually western/southwestern Britain later in the day. Widespread showers and a several thunderstorms are expected, especially across parts of England. Generally moist profiles and surface to 500mb delta-Ts reaching into the mid-40s will help to generate in excess of 500 J/kg of CAPE by the afternoon across much of central and eastern parts of England. Even further north into Scotland, as well as parts of Wales and northern and eastern parts of Ireland will see convection quite early on before ridging begins to limit the risk later. Shear profiles are relatively weak in central and northern Britain, but there is a pocket of higher shear across southern England that could help invigorate shower potential in southern England during the afternoon (perhaps with a few embedded line-segments). As a result, heavy showers and a few thunderstorms are possible across a large part of the British Isles, but the favoured zones for lightning potential seem to be across northern England, south to a line from Liverpool Bay to the Wash (higher CAPE), and across southern England south of the M4 (higher shear). Showers will peak with afternoon heating, and generally fade away with a combination of the upper trough clearing eastwards and the lack of surface insolation. Heavy downpours with localised flash flooding will be the largest risk, along with some hail to 1-1.5cm under the deepest convective cores in the northern SLGT area. http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-08-10

I wouldn't worry about that Frosty after all it is GFS FI and plus it hasn't latched onto the upcoming signals yet which have been mentioned by Singularity and Tamara in recent posts so expect a turn around in what it is being modelled during Mid-Late to Late August by the GFS if these signals (El Nino forcing mainly as well as other factors such as AAM) play out over the next 10-15 days if so then we may be in for a last hurrah for the end of Summer 2018 before autumn inevitably takes hold later in September.

Reading your post yesterday about the MJO coming out in phase 2 and seeing the westerly wind burst currently underway near the dateline as a result of the Nino static wave it seems to me that we might expect a higher amplitude MJO in phases 4-6 (assuming events persist) which would fit with some of the things spoken about.

July 29th and now August 9th - two vile days in an otherwise wonderful summer.

Well today must of pleased those that wanted rain and cool temperatures. From a personal perspective it’s been a rotten day. Cool and wet. A sober reminder of how crap a UK summer can be. Could of been late October having not looked at the calendar. Its very hard to find that medium in the UK, if it’s not warm/hot sunny in the height of summer, it’s usually Atlantic dominant with outbreaks of rain of fairly cool weather - today a prime example. As tomorrow will be, although temperatures maybe of 20/21c - heavy showers look to greet. Unless you get a high pressure with a North easterly regime in place in summer most settled weather will feel warm to hot unless later on in the season, that’s why I never understood those wishing away a decent summer run for this muck... as always, each to their own. Warm and-blue skies with an electric fan on during the night, over this anyday...!

It has been a perfect day, plenty of rain with a maximum temperature of 16 ° . I do not know how many days of rain it will take to revive the garden lawn and for it to go back to green and it's a yucky mustard yellow colour.

Friend of mine said there was some spectacular storms in southern France this morning, he's camping too

Yes,they possibly/maybe/could/perhaps/chance dont cope well when the weather is coming uo from the south or in from the east.

Lovely day,and im serious,so nice to have a decent drop of rain,been a fantastic summer so far,but I am glad its cooler

Now that we finally have got some weather, it has confused the weather forecasters last night's forecast contained possibly maybe perhaps, 3 months of predictable weather has caught them on the hop

October 11th 2006 here saw a morning storm that caused tremendous flash flooding, I still remember getting ready for school and very unexpectedly hearing thunder. Looked out my window and straight away saw a distant pink CG to the south! Got caught up in it, turned up to school and half the class got sent home for being so drenched That was on the back of what was a very hot summer and September, so the chances are quite high of a similar theme this autumn I’d say.

Midday high res. MODIS and 1100 UTC chart. A fair bit of continuous moderate rain around in the south east

Manchester Summer Indices Summers in order with the best at the top 1976 301 1995 298 2018 291 (up to 8th August) 1983 278 1955 277 1911 274 1984 271 1959 269 1975 268 1949 267 1989 262 1947 255 1933 251 1901 249 1921 249 2003 247 2013 247 1925 246 2006 246 1996 245 1935 243 2018 243 <-------------------if rest of summer records zero sunshine, rain everyday and a mean maximum of 15C

noaa's backing up the flat ops solution... its all looking pretty average with no major troughing nor ridging. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

6z an improvement on the 00z. Seems that the 00z each day seems to be the worst run!

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean T+240 looks the best I've seen recently with good support for increasing high pressure / ridging and also warmer temperatures extending north.☺

The rain started early this morning approx 7 am. The rain is quite light but persistent and for some strange reason my cat Simba wants to go out in the back garden and get wet. He keeps on meowing at me and then doing a little dance by walking in circles. I hope the rain will get heavier today and it such a relief to have cooler weather. I hope it will stay for two weeks so as to replenish the gardens etc. It will also be good for wildlife and I will not to water the garden plants today, which will be a relief.

Thoughts from over here regarding the UK. Looks like ex hurricane Debbie coming into the equation now and throwing a spanner into the various model evolutions. Sure increase in energy to be had out in the Atlantic. The question is how will the jet stream align into the British Isles from Sunday into early next week and advance the frontal activity ? There is a certain amount of doubt in this mornings prognosis with a thought some heat could advect towards the British Isles during the latter part of the weekend with the main Atlantic attack pushed a bit further north and west. Could change again as the models come to grip with the extra energy produced by ex Debbie. Looks easier to produce a forecast over here in Central Europe but could I think now be causing a bit of a problem for the UKMO forecasters. C

After enduring a period where i could have probably slept on the covers, last night was certainly the coolest in a while since i woke up actually feeling a little chilly.

This morning's fax update for Saturday and the ecm. The latter fills the low rapidly over the weekend to just a slack area of low pressure

Drizzly rain this morning, was actually nice and cooling for me as I walked the dogs, looks to be some real rain on the radar, not sure it won’t be more drizzle by the time it reaches here though.

0z GFS and I’m still not seeing any return of the Heat wave we’ve just seen. Temperatures maxing out at 24-25 degrees which is perfect with variable cloud & rain and maybe the odd storm. Perfect.

ECM maxes for end of week (mainly but not exclusively in the SE) - taking the raw data plus the usual 2C - are 28C or 29C each day from Wednesday to Saturday. In most years we'd accept that as a heatwave, I think. The way this year's going, I can see this being upgraded further. (yes, you can see I've ditched my half empty glass for a half full one again )

Almost a week on, and against the efforts of the models to progressively remove the signal as described in the caption extract, the signals have been fighting back. It remains sensible to view NWP from outside the inner circle. Cluster and ensemble data also hampered by inconsistency and erratic perceptions. Current steer from the Global Wind Oscillation is a slow low amplitude orbit underway circa Phase 8/0 which acknowledges the degree of re-amplification there has been upstream in the Pacific (as outlined in the most recent post ) through this week and injected just enough energy into the polar jet downstream to edge the heat into the nearby continent. But the models have been blind-sided by the tropical activity in the Pacific that flares up in addition to any low frequency signal - and which they are often slow to respond to. Hence the out and out trough solution suggested in recent days for the weekend ahead of an amplified Atlantic ridge, has been watered down and greater downstream ridge persists instead. This in turn has altered the apparent evolution for that once depicted upstream ridge to move eastwards and try to settle things down into next week. However, this is far from the end of the story. Worth taking a look again at the implementing standing wave pattern in the Pacific and seeing how the July pattern started to adopt to that in terms of position of tropical forcing. Which @Singularityhas already alluded to. The outlook remains focussed around the difficulties NWP is having related to this regime - in the short term, the flare-ups of more micro-scale cyclonic forcing in the Eastern Pacific which adds positive wind momentum upstream and cancels out this weeks attempting amplification (upstream). This activity is superimposed onto the moving on of the cyclical low frequency MJO signal before re-starting its new timeline eastward cycle. The Hovmollers wind anomaly cross section also depicts this positive momentum in the Pacific clearly close to 180W This means that resolving troughs and ridges downstream within an apparent upper westerly flow into the medium term is not straightforward and subject to further amendment within closing timescales. Then into the medium and longer term itself the re-engagement of the low frequency signal itself with the Nino standing wave which is highly likely to repeat the sequence of late July once again. The re-entry point heading east from Maritimes within last third of August. There is little point in posting deterministic modelling of this that far out at this stage - as progress of developments with the usual 5 days, let alone beyond it have not been reliable. This ultimate destination of the low frequency tropical convection signal in later month involves, downstream, the re-implementation of a substantive ridge to the NE, likely overspreading an amplified upper trough that is perhaps more likely to dig southwards and become slow moving to the SW as opposed to the more progressive west>east solution in late July. The ramifications of this are highly interesting indeed for those of us who want summer extension to take us through to conclusion and beyond : More settled, but most especially the further north once heads and always a good chance of mid level convection and thundery potential showing up due to destabilisation c/o of the stalling trough to the SW spiralling up some embedded features in the humid airflow from the south to keep folk entertained with some light shows in the darker mid evenings - and still plenty warm enough for many to keep sitting outside and enjoying themselves In that sense, it could well be the summer officially finishes not too dissimilar to how as it was ushered in during late May. There is credible evidence and reason to support such a scenario, which also is not also unnoticed by the professionals in the extended outlook over and above any weather enthusiasts of this site - so on the basis that none of us are paid to make suggestions or predictions, then what the heck, lets have some fun and see how it unfolds Finally to complete the post and in relation to the continued process that underpins its logic and conclusions: I think, yet again, some further repeated correction needs to be given to a few posts made since the one under update consideration - in respect of the El Nino (standing wave) and its alleged lack of effect on our downstream pattern in summer, or at any time. The emphasis of this continues not to be the base state itself as I see repeatedly still keeps being incorrectly misrepresented regarding these summaries, but the changing relationship the atmosphere is adopting to on-going slow shifts in base state and which do impact on synoptic changes from upstream. One cannot deny that changes in jet stream profile upstream in the Pacific will not impact on the downstream pattern - and in this sense it is not wise to take NWP at face value where there are complicated and sometimes contradictory signals occurring upstream. This principle applies such as it does currently in summer as much as it does in autumn, winter and Spring. This atmosphere/ocean relationship is not linear as this year has proved so emphatically - with the east based La Nina providing a very different winter (also relative also to the stratospheric state prevailing back then) than commonly seen under "traditional" La Nina's where the tropical signal is much less eastward. than it was. Similarly there are a-typical El Nino's where the most common atmospheric responses expected are altered in state. But the point is we can take each on its own merits and then identify how the atmospheric relationship may, or may not be altered from this state and then see how other factors may also augment or detract from them The whole purpose of this kind of GSDM analysis is to widen the parameters and hence open minds to possibilities within NWP, not straight-jacket them into x+y= *one size fits all boxes* based on any given base state supposition