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Showing content with the highest reputation on 09/08/18 in all areas

  1. 9 points
    The more eastern main Atlantic trough solutions continue to seem more suspect to me than the more western ones, based on the models moving the tropical setup further away from the Nino configuration than seems reasonable. Ex-Bertha adds uncertainty in that it may interact with the main Atlantic trough in a way that brings about a 'trail' of lower SLP down near the Azores, displacing high pressure across us by late next week in the manner of the GFS 06z, but equally, it could remain independent of the Atlantic trough, allowing that feature to be much flatter in shape. Even in that flatter scenario, though, I'd be surprised to see the main trough move as far east as the ECM 00z takes it. I'm of the impression that we'll have a fair bit of tropical maritime air coming our way next week, but with LP close enough by to wring some spells of rain out of that, particularly in the northwest where it could be very wet overall. Mild to very mild nights, but away from the south, near to below average daytime highs keeping indoor temperatures comfortable for those who don't like it hot. Then for the final third of the month, we move into 'Nino-forcing proper', with a good chance of exchanging westerlies for a continental flow (for more than just the odd day). Models still need to adapt their tropical outlooks a bit for that to start being represented better.
  2. 6 points
    That’s great. like you I love hot weather, just not the oppressive heat we’ve had recently. If everyone liked the same thing this forum would be boring
  3. 5 points
    Aboyne in NE Scotland fell to an unusually cold 0.5c overnight
  4. 5 points
    No change to the outlook from yesterday so this post is essentially an update on last evening's posts. The expected rain in the south east arrived during the night as can be seen on the 0200 chart and 0300 sat. image This rain will persist all day in the south east as the developing wave over Biscay tracks north east into the North Sea. Heavy outbreaks are possible at times and quite how far west the rain gets is still dependent on the precise track of the low. One thing is for sure with the rain and a fresh onshore wind it will feel much cooler than of late. Elsewhere heavy showers will get going, particularly in the north west but all western areas will be effected. The low continues its journey north east overnight and through Friday initiating some quite inclement weather into southern Scandinavia and leaving the UK in a fresh WNW airflow. Thus showers will be the order of the day becoming frequent and heavy in places and quite lengthy if they merge. Quite a cool day with temps shading below average. Overnight Friday a very transient ridge builds but out west in the Atlantic a large area of low pressure is getting organized and by lunchtime a myriad of fronts associated with this are lining up over Ireland so that after a bright start to the day cloud and rain with strengthening winds will sweep in ans effect most areas by midnight Sunday. Sunday finds the low west of Ireland with various fronts traversing the country on a fresh south westerly wind thus intermittent rain in most places (I'll skip the rainfall charts) with sunny intervals Even a little warm spot over East Anglia. By Monday there is a slack area of low pressure over the UK with the odd front/trough littered about all of which portends sunny intervals and showers and relatively warm in the much lighter winds And the NH profile as the new week gets underway
  5. 4 points
    Can everybody please cross their fingers for a moment, in regards to a clear night on Sunday for the Perseids? The forecast isn't looking great atm
  6. 4 points
    Had gardener come and sort out our jungle of a garden, this morning and he's made a brilliant job of it!! He was recommended by Age Concern and charged a very reasonable price. It hasn't been cut, since last Summer and despite the lack of rain, as you can imagine, was wildly overgrown. I'm sixty-two and due to a compromised balance, from a stroke in 2015, it's not possible for me to get involved with it now. Also, my wife has serious health issues, that prevent her from managing it, too. It was so nice this afternoon, to sit in our lounge, with door wide open onto patio. Still had to have fan on though, as heat takes for an age to disperse, in our tiny house!! Looking out onto the garden, this afternoon, the weather looked perfect, plenty of sunshine with a few fair weather cumulus, floating about, low humidity and a refreshing breeze, with evidently temps in the mid-20's. Perfect Summer weather!! Really wouldn't mind if it stayed like this until October now, IMO much better than that oppressive heat we've experienced, for so long. Looking forward to a decent night's sleep, tonight, in our much cooler bedroom. Regards, Tom.
  7. 3 points
    It has been a perfect day, plenty of rain with a maximum temperature of 16 ° . I do not know how many days of rain it will take to revive the garden lawn and for it to go back to green and it's a yucky mustard yellow colour.
  8. 3 points
    Friend of mine said there was some spectacular storms in southern France this morning, he's camping too
  9. 3 points
    Yes,they possibly/maybe/could/perhaps/chance dont cope well when the weather is coming uo from the south or in from the east.
  10. 3 points
    Lovely day,and im serious,so nice to have a decent drop of rain,been a fantastic summer so far,but I am glad its cooler
  11. 3 points
    Now that we finally have got some weather, it has confused the weather forecasters last night's forecast contained possibly maybe perhaps, 3 months of predictable weather has caught them on the hop
  12. 3 points
    October 11th 2006 here saw a morning storm that caused tremendous flash flooding, I still remember getting ready for school and very unexpectedly hearing thunder. Looked out my window and straight away saw a distant pink CG to the south! Got caught up in it, turned up to school and half the class got sent home for being so drenched That was on the back of what was a very hot summer and September, so the chances are quite high of a similar theme this autumn I’d say.
  13. 3 points
    Midday high res. MODIS and 1100 UTC chart. A fair bit of continuous moderate rain around in the south east
  14. 3 points
    Manchester Summer Indices Summers in order with the best at the top 1976 301 1995 298 2018 291 (up to 8th August) 1983 278 1955 277 1911 274 1984 271 1959 269 1975 268 1949 267 1989 262 1947 255 1933 251 1901 249 1921 249 2003 247 2013 247 1925 246 2006 246 1996 245 1935 243 2018 243 <-------------------if rest of summer records zero sunshine, rain everyday and a mean maximum of 15C
  15. 3 points
    noaa's backing up the flat ops solution... its all looking pretty average with no major troughing nor ridging. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php
  16. 3 points
    6z an improvement on the 00z. Seems that the 00z each day seems to be the worst run!
  17. 3 points
    The Ecm 00z ensemble mean T+240 looks the best I've seen recently with good support for increasing high pressure / ridging and also warmer temperatures extending north.☺
  18. 3 points
    The rain started early this morning approx 7 am. The rain is quite light but persistent and for some strange reason my cat Simba wants to go out in the back garden and get wet. He keeps on meowing at me and then doing a little dance by walking in circles. I hope the rain will get heavier today and it such a relief to have cooler weather. I hope it will stay for two weeks so as to replenish the gardens etc. It will also be good for wildlife and I will not to water the garden plants today, which will be a relief.
  19. 3 points
    Thoughts from over here regarding the UK. Looks like ex hurricane Debbie coming into the equation now and throwing a spanner into the various model evolutions. Sure increase in energy to be had out in the Atlantic. The question is how will the jet stream align into the British Isles from Sunday into early next week and advance the frontal activity ? There is a certain amount of doubt in this mornings prognosis with a thought some heat could advect towards the British Isles during the latter part of the weekend with the main Atlantic attack pushed a bit further north and west. Could change again as the models come to grip with the extra energy produced by ex Debbie. Looks easier to produce a forecast over here in Central Europe but could I think now be causing a bit of a problem for the UKMO forecasters. C
  20. 3 points
    After enduring a period where i could have probably slept on the covers, last night was certainly the coolest in a while since i woke up actually feeling a little chilly.
  21. 3 points
    This morning's fax update for Saturday and the ecm. The latter fills the low rapidly over the weekend to just a slack area of low pressure
  22. 3 points
    Drizzly rain this morning, was actually nice and cooling for me as I walked the dogs, looks to be some real rain on the radar, not sure it won’t be more drizzle by the time it reaches here though.
  23. 3 points
    0z GFS and I’m still not seeing any return of the Heat wave we’ve just seen. Temperatures maxing out at 24-25 degrees which is perfect with variable cloud & rain and maybe the odd storm. Perfect.
  24. 3 points
    ECM maxes for end of week (mainly but not exclusively in the SE) - taking the raw data plus the usual 2C - are 28C or 29C each day from Wednesday to Saturday. In most years we'd accept that as a heatwave, I think. The way this year's going, I can see this being upgraded further. (yes, you can see I've ditched my half empty glass for a half full one again )
  25. 3 points
    Almost a week on, and against the efforts of the models to progressively remove the signal as described in the caption extract, the signals have been fighting back. It remains sensible to view NWP from outside the inner circle. Cluster and ensemble data also hampered by inconsistency and erratic perceptions. Current steer from the Global Wind Oscillation is a slow low amplitude orbit underway circa Phase 8/0 which acknowledges the degree of re-amplification there has been upstream in the Pacific (as outlined in the most recent post ) through this week and injected just enough energy into the polar jet downstream to edge the heat into the nearby continent. But the models have been blind-sided by the tropical activity in the Pacific that flares up in addition to any low frequency signal - and which they are often slow to respond to. Hence the out and out trough solution suggested in recent days for the weekend ahead of an amplified Atlantic ridge, has been watered down and greater downstream ridge persists instead. This in turn has altered the apparent evolution for that once depicted upstream ridge to move eastwards and try to settle things down into next week. However, this is far from the end of the story. Worth taking a look again at the implementing standing wave pattern in the Pacific and seeing how the July pattern started to adopt to that in terms of position of tropical forcing. Which @Singularityhas already alluded to. The outlook remains focussed around the difficulties NWP is having related to this regime - in the short term, the flare-ups of more micro-scale cyclonic forcing in the Eastern Pacific which adds positive wind momentum upstream and cancels out this weeks attempting amplification (upstream). This activity is superimposed onto the moving on of the cyclical low frequency MJO signal before re-starting its new timeline eastward cycle. The Hovmollers wind anomaly cross section also depicts this positive momentum in the Pacific clearly close to 180W This means that resolving troughs and ridges downstream within an apparent upper westerly flow into the medium term is not straightforward and subject to further amendment within closing timescales. Then into the medium and longer term itself the re-engagement of the low frequency signal itself with the Nino standing wave which is highly likely to repeat the sequence of late July once again. The re-entry point heading east from Maritimes within last third of August. There is little point in posting deterministic modelling of this that far out at this stage - as progress of developments with the usual 5 days, let alone beyond it have not been reliable. This ultimate destination of the low frequency tropical convection signal in later month involves, downstream, the re-implementation of a substantive ridge to the NE, likely overspreading an amplified upper trough that is perhaps more likely to dig southwards and become slow moving to the SW as opposed to the more progressive west>east solution in late July. The ramifications of this are highly interesting indeed for those of us who want summer extension to take us through to conclusion and beyond : More settled, but most especially the further north once heads and always a good chance of mid level convection and thundery potential showing up due to destabilisation c/o of the stalling trough to the SW spiralling up some embedded features in the humid airflow from the south to keep folk entertained with some light shows in the darker mid evenings - and still plenty warm enough for many to keep sitting outside and enjoying themselves In that sense, it could well be the summer officially finishes not too dissimilar to how as it was ushered in during late May. There is credible evidence and reason to support such a scenario, which also is not also unnoticed by the professionals in the extended outlook over and above any weather enthusiasts of this site - so on the basis that none of us are paid to make suggestions or predictions, then what the heck, lets have some fun and see how it unfolds Finally to complete the post and in relation to the continued process that underpins its logic and conclusions: I think, yet again, some further repeated correction needs to be given to a few posts made since the one under update consideration - in respect of the El Nino (standing wave) and its alleged lack of effect on our downstream pattern in summer, or at any time. The emphasis of this continues not to be the base state itself as I see repeatedly still keeps being incorrectly misrepresented regarding these summaries, but the changing relationship the atmosphere is adopting to on-going slow shifts in base state and which do impact on synoptic changes from upstream. One cannot deny that changes in jet stream profile upstream in the Pacific will not impact on the downstream pattern - and in this sense it is not wise to take NWP at face value where there are complicated and sometimes contradictory signals occurring upstream. This principle applies such as it does currently in summer as much as it does in autumn, winter and Spring. This atmosphere/ocean relationship is not linear as this year has proved so emphatically - with the east based La Nina providing a very different winter (also relative also to the stratospheric state prevailing back then) than commonly seen under "traditional" La Nina's where the tropical signal is much less eastward. than it was. Similarly there are a-typical El Nino's where the most common atmospheric responses expected are altered in state. But the point is we can take each on its own merits and then identify how the atmospheric relationship may, or may not be altered from this state and then see how other factors may also augment or detract from them The whole purpose of this kind of GSDM analysis is to widen the parameters and hence open minds to possibilities within NWP, not straight-jacket them into x+y= *one size fits all boxes* based on any given base state supposition
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