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Whilst all the talk of cool and unsettled weather seems to have dominated, is it just me or is the low for the coming weekend looking far less potent. All the models are suggesting breezy conditions at worst with the chance of southern areas really not seeing much from this, in fact there is a chance of drawing up warmer air for a time from France as the low approaches. Further ahead; ECM ens Week 2 looks like tryin to centre an area of high pressure towards France with a west to south west flow so a NW/SE split and one which could bring very warm conditions for the south. GEFs More of a trough to our west from the GEFs though the evolution would look similar, so a window of possible more settled and very warm conditions developing after a more changeable period of weather. I must admit there have been a few posts which have left me scratching my head which appear to be more based on previous Augusts than anything substantial. Nothing awful in the output despite conditions not being at the level we have seen so far this summer. Lets see what the 12z suite delivers.....

I don't think we can say much meaningful about next week, if the models had Saturday this wrong, and I assume that tonight's output is now more or less correct at this range, we should have a considerable amount of scepticism about the output for next week at the moment!

And a very warm Sunday also according to the ECM:

If I'm interpreting the charts correctly, the GFS is suggesting 30C may be reached in the SE on Sunday, next Wednesday and next Thursday. Hmmm. Starting to look like the cool down has been over-exaggerated (including by me, I admit! )

Almost a Bartlett set-up. It's funny you don't hear that term outside the winter season.

It's in a situation like this, where we have a thundery breakdown approaching from the S/SW, I like to apply what I call, the "Cherbourg Rule". With steering winds appearing to be from the SSW, any ppn initiating east of the peninsula, tends to drift NNE up the Channel, towards the extreme east of Kent, S.N.Sea and the Benelux countries,. Any ppn initiating to the west of Cherbourg, if it holds together, generally has our name on it. https://en.meteox.com/en-gb?fc=0&lightning=1 As we can see, from the radar returns the thundery ppn, west of Cherbourg, certainly looks like affecting or south coast regions, fairly soon. The ppn that has formed east of Cherbourg, looks in general, to miss our region. But of course, other t/showers/storms, will no doubt form, as the air destabilises, ahead of the front heading towards us, from the west. Just want to have a look at the performance, so far, of those models/agency, I posted this morning. AROME: X Wrong. Obviously thundery ppn, is not going to stay exclusively over France, It's already wrong. ARPEGE: Looks to be much nearer the mark at the moment, breaking out ppn, generally over the S.E. before it moves away from our region, towards midnight. EURO4: Like ARPEGE, looks to be "on the button" but perhaps ppn a bit more widespread, than it was suggesting, before moving away, around midnight. GFS: Looks a bit late with initiating ppn, and perhaps too far east, as well. BBC/METEO GROUP: Like EURO4/ARPEGE, not far off the mark, so far. Try applying the "Cherbourg Rule" yourselves, it's worked for me over many years of watching these thundery breakdowns, on radar. Regards, Tom.

In a slightly odd way I like this slow burn weather, storms edging in and maybe or maybe not delivering, snow falling then stopping and keeping us wondering, hot weather thinking about it, thinking about it again and then either landing or heading back south. It's the uncertainty that is part of the drama. Right now in Reigate for the last 10 minutes it's been raining really heavily and there is the scent of battered lavender, oregano and rosemary in the air, their oils and aromas released by the sudden rain. Just across the other side of the garden, the tomatoes and chillies grown from seed, ripe and bursting with flavour and heat, are going to get a boost from the rain. And it's all after dark so is perfect.

Most of the Ecm 12z looks warm / very warm, especially for the s / e / se.. those green snot charts are deceptive, the 850's show plenty of warm potential after the cooler blip between wed / fri...and even those days won't be cool, just less warm in comparison.

There's some very good news from the Gfs 12z operational for anyone getting withdrawal symptoms during the coming less warm changeable period because the weekend becomes very warm again further s / se and high pressure builds in at times through the run with further very warm spells, especially across england and wales...there's potentially still plenty of life left in this summer!☺

Sun is back out in central London now - pushing the temperature back up to unbearable heat. Can't wait for my journey home later as well, courtesy of the South East Trains Sauna!

Storm & Convective Forecast Issued 2018-08-06 21:33:50 Valid: 07/08/2018 00z to 08/08/2018 00z THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK - TUESDAY 7TH AUGUST 2018 Synopsis North Atlantic upper trough will begin to amplify S and SE across the far west of Britain during Tuesday, with a strengthening upper flow across the UK – as SWly jet stream shifts S and E across the UK. Ahead of the jet streak, a weak surface cold front will progress slowly east, to lie North York Moors - West Sussex by 00z Weds. A very hot, humid and increasingly unstable airmass ahead of the cold front across SE England and East Anglia is forecast to destabilise and produce thunderstorms in the evening here before the front clears through and introduces cooler and more stable air. … SE ENGLAND and E ANGLIA … Surface-based CAPE will build up through the day due to surface heating of humid plume in conjunction with lapse rates steepening in association with advection north of EML (elevated mixed layer) aloft. However, this surface instability is likely to remain capped. However, a shortwave in the strengthening flow aloft will move NE from Bay of Biscay area in the morning crossing NW France in the afternoon. The increased lift by the shortwave along NW edge of hot and humid plume over France and SE UK combined with increasing mid-level instability as dry air intrusion punches NE overlapping plume, is forecast by many models to break out thunderstorms across Brittany and Normandy by early evening, before spreading / expanding NE across SE England then East Anglia through the evening. Thunderstorms are likely to be elevated, though 40-50 knots of 0-6km shear forecast will allow storm organisation into clusters, perhaps even an MCS passing over parts of Kent and eastern E Anglia, so there is potential for strong storms that may bring locally intense downpours leading to flash-flooding, isolated hail, strong wind gusts and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning. These storms should clear away NE into the North Sea after midnight. Issued by: Nick Finnis

Night all! I'll go and listen to LBC's Medical Hour and find out what's going to kill me, this week...It'll no' be being struck by lightning - that's for sure!

Now Ed, are you talking about thunder storms or take that

Have to give some praise to the EUR04 model, here's the ppn chart I posted this morning, for around now: Think that's a pretty good fit, to current radar returns!! https://en.meteox.com/en-gb?fc=0&lightning=1 It's certainly closer, than the other models!! Regards, Tom.

ECM also going for a much better Saturday across England and Wales:

no comments on the gfs 06z?.. its a corker for heat... with high pressure in control for days. pity it has precious little support, heres hoping the anomaly charts switch to something more anticyclonic later today.

Indeed Luke...despite the popular misconception, there is a third type of UK weather: not wall-to-wall sunshine and 30+ temps, and not endless days' grey with drizzle...? What's wrong with the good old British three-fine-days-and-a-thunderstorm scenario: some rain, some sun and temps maxing out between, say, 19 and 25C?

It's not, we work with retailers large and small, and I can absolutely assure you that weather plays a huge part in terms of footfall, sales numbers and the type of goods which are sold. Some products / retailers are more weather sensitive than others, but it plays a part up and down the high street, and even online.

Fine mist over the fields this morning, which has quickly burnt off. Hoping for a cracking storm this evening making way for the fresher air. Lots to do in the garden over the next few days, mainly laying artificial grass to cover what is a weed/mud square, I tried to keep some grass for the dogs business but this heat has killed what little there was, as according to my neighbours the garden has never been used as a garden by previous tenants, when I moved in it was overgrown with ivy which was up the bungalow walls. Having killed and cleared all that, there is just weeds left. I’ve planted all around the borders, now just the muck left to cover. It maybe artificial but it’s green and clean and keeps the mud away from paws, thus saving my carpets.

Very hard to make any kind of judgement on tonight.. Could be all of us in the South East, or just the very far Eastern regions.. Usually I would be posting up my take on it, but not one model is the same currently so going to wait for 12z later on and 06z and see But think radar and SAT will be the key today

Today is the last day of the current hot spell as a more changeable and cooler regime sets in but it quite likely will not go quietly in the south east. Before getting to more detail the current NH profile At the moment a fair bit of cloud across n. England, Wales and the south west associated with the weakening cold front that is gradually moving south east and some bits and bobs of rain in the far north west from the occlusion. The cold front is really the major player today as it will again be hot to the south and east of it with the cooler air behind. Thus another very hot day in parts of the south east which will not only trigger some storms but be in the firing line of an unstable low feature tracking north west from France during the evening which could well produce some quite intense outbreaks before clearing into the North Sea.The storms obviously could occur anywhere but probably east of a a line the Wash to west Sussex. Elsewhere cooler with showers in the west and the cold front should clear the east coast in the early hours of Wednesday. The sequence: So by Wednesday everyone is in the cooler westerly airflow thus a bright sunny day with showers which could well be heavy and concentrated at times in the north and west. As was mentioned in a post last evening a wave forms near Coruna by 00 Thursday and this develops quite rapidly and tracks north east through France into the North Sea during the day accompanied by an area of heavy rain En route this impacts the south east of the UK By Friday the Atlantic is revving up and a warm front associated with a complex area of low pressure brings patchy rain to western regions By Saturday the complex area of low pressure is more organized and the low is centred over N. Ireland and, in conjunction with the associated fronts, has brought wet and windy weather to most of the UK. Not unusually the far south east excapes and in fact is pleasantly warm. The NH profile at T120

GFS parallel precipitation at T33, enjoy! I know some were welcoming a cool down, but this! Yes, that's all snow! I think there might be a data issue with this run!

Yes,the big storms have become less frequent. However,we all recall the storm of June 22nd 2016, certainly in the London area,raged throughout the night,constant thunder and lightning and 50mm of rain,and that was during a fairly crap spell of weather. The fact that some folk got up the following morning and voted for Brexit well that's another story!

Autumn is well and truly coming in the later stages of the ECM . It would make a nice change for charts like this to come off .

Occasional distant thunder in the channel. A feeble thundery effort this evening, soon forgotten I would imagine. Clearly we don't have all the ingredients in place for anything notable.

Yes, thanks, got me thinking - there are a number of other possibilities of course: Fancy a steak and kidney? - Piegate Wondering about the meaning of life - WhyohWhygate MI5 move into town - Spygate Infestation of flying insects - Flygate Outbreak of public grief - Crygate Nosing into your neighbour's business - Prygate Porcine farmer sets up shop next door - Stygate and so on! But back to the weather, it's still Drygate

GFS showing a largely fine day in the SE on Saturday, much better than previous runs. After more of a low pressure influence for all on Monday, the GFS also shows a nice rebuild of pressure for the southern and central areas on Tuesday:

Skies in Hastings currently: (looking SW)

Yes... quite the difference in handling of the tropical progression during the week ahead. It's been known for a while that a new tropical cycle should get going soon, but the general expectation has been for this to be around mid-month, so GEFS is surprisingly fast. Yet the observation data from the past few days has shown continued activity when ECMF predicted a rapid decline - and yesterday saw that model give in a bit and show the activity sticking around for a bit longer. I expect a lot of this is down to the presence of a couple of large tropical cyclones in the E and C Pac, especially the C Pac one, Hector, which looks to make quite a close pass of Hawaii (but hopefully keep most of its circulation to the south). How far north or south this tracks will have a big impact on the trades in the locality, and there's still enough uncertainty to account for at least some of the disagreement displayed above. Tropical cyclones do sometimes give the atmosphere a kick which I believe may be capable of producing a temporary swing toward an either Nina-like or Nino-like state. Hector may also be a major factor in how the Arctic heights evolve; if in a week or so's time it tracks into the N. Pacific and undergoes powerful extratropical transition into a broad trough, that could potentially pump a lot of unusually warm air up across the Arctic at high altitude, which would then sink down and produce a strong anticyclone over the Pacific side of the basin.

Hot weather is a broad brush, many products have trigger temperatures, so 25c is good for sales of some items, but at 28c, footfall may drop etc. July was a good month for food retailers, but not many others, so again even if overall sales were down, there are a multitude of differences within those figures from store to store or sector to sector. Then of course there is the over-riding economic pattern to take into account, it's well talked about that retail (or at least high street retail) is struggling a tad at the moment, and the economy overall isn't exactly jumping through hoops. 2006 and 2013 were better years in that respect. Weather really does have an impact, there is no doubt about that, but there aren't a single set of rules. For fashion retailers for example, a hot end to spring or start to summer can be great in getting their summer lines moved. A hot end to summer won't have the same effect, and could in fact hurt sales of their Autumn lines. For some particular retailers, wet, cool weather is good for them, for others who perhaps rely on general footfall rather than a specific journey to them, it's not. And, it's about product specifics too - sales of particular items can change hugely with fairly subtle differences in temperature and humidity (the feels like value can often have a larger effect than the value on the thermometer), there are masses of variables, but virtually every retailer is using weather data for sales forecasting and/or sales analysis, and they wouldn't be spending time or money on it if it had no use.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-08-07 Day 1 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 07 Aug 2018 - 05:59 UTC Wed 08 Aug 2018 ISSUED 08:30 UTC Tue 07 Aug 2018 ISSUED BY: Dan On the forward side of the sharpening Atlantic upper trough, a warm and humid airmass will be drawn northwards from Iberia towards SE England on Tuesday. Initially profiles look rather dry and capped (to surface-based convection), but an approaching shortwave from Biscay should gradually moisten profiles by Tuesday afternoon, providing a lifting mechanism. A gradual increase in elevated showers / thunderstorms seems likely during the late afternoon and through evening hours, beginning over the English Channel and spreading northeastwards - generally clearing the coast to the North Sea soon after 00z. Given the magnitude of instability, steep mid-level lapse rates, mid-level dry intrusion and sheared profiles, early cells for the first few hours could become sufficiently organised to produce frequent lightning and perhaps hail up to 2.5cm in diameter. As the evening progresses, the main threats will become mainly heavy rain, with lightning frequency probably also reducing. Therefore areas with the best overlap of ingredients for hail / frequent lightning will be Kent / Sussex and perhaps east Essex - a low-end MDT has been issued to better highlight this, though there is still some uncertainty as to how widespread activity will be. A few isolated lightning strikes may also be possible over the Celtic Sea late in the night.

Here are the 00z model runs views on tonight's potential thundery ppn, as fronts and fresher air, advance towards us from the west. AROME http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arome.php?ech=18&mode=1&map=0 Having none of it and keeps any thundery ppn, well to our south and east Goes on to develop, what looks to be an impressive MCS, around the Paris area, which trundles off to the Belgian/German border. ARPEGE http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpegee_cartes.php?&ech=21&mode=2 Much more enthusiastic about developing some thundery ppn, for our region, before it moves off out into the S. North Sea, after midnight. EURO4 Suggesting, only E.Sussex and Kent receiving any appreciable ppn. GFS This, a little later but develops the faintest of, Kent clippers. BBC/METEO GROUP Tonight This evening, in to tonight, there is the chance of some heavy, thundery showers spreading their way north. Any showers will clear later on though, leaving behind some fresher conditions. Looking at the graphics, on the BBC's/Meteo Group charts, they bore quite a similarity to the EURO4, take on tonight. If any thundery ppn does form, it looks very likely to be the east of the region, that's at threat. But as Luke(Surrey), suggested above, very much a cases of radar watching!! What has struck me about this Summer is, that people wrongly equate heat to thunder. I suppose, we've all grown up with the oft-quoted mantra, "three fine days and a thunderstorm". Well we've had many fine days, leading to no thunderstorms!! Whilst out shopping, on "blisteringly" hot Sunday, I gazed up at the sky ( as one does) and noticed some very fine, wispy cirrus, trying to form but it just disintegrated in front of my eyes. The moisture, being squeezed out of it, as I stared up!! I'm half Italian and the weather this Summer has reminded of what occurs on the Italian Peninsula, during "high" Summer. Not that many storms occur actually, the air being too hot and dry, suffocated by omnipresent areas of high pressure. They do experience storms, of course, some severe as well!! These especially occur, due to converging sea-breezes, where this air from the Med. meets air from the Adriatic and is forced to lift over the Apennines (the mountain chain, that runs down the sine of Italy). These storms can be severe and mainly electrical, over the mountains. Italy's main thunder threat occurs during the transition from Summer to Autumn, when cool, moist air, finally enters the Med. basin. I've seen some real "humdingers" there in Sept/Oct. Good luck to all you Brontophiles, this Brontophobe won't be cheering any storms on, though!! But I will be cheering on the fresher air behind, this front. Regards, Tom.

i agree. the noaa's 500mb charts do not suggest any significant ridging or troughing ( 8-14 dayer) but a moderate westerly upper flow. a pretty bog standard normal august outlook then which is still better then most recent augusts.

Wow thats a huge change and to be fair ecm is showing a lovely warm day aswell across england and wales with temps around mid twenties!!at one point all models were showing a washout for saturday!!massive change in the last 12 hours!!

Storm heading towards Rouen looks supercellular on radar. Afraid it’s looking like one of them nights of envy on the continent tonight. Quite a kick in the nuts given the high temps we are seeing today. Estofex is looking bang on.

Well comparing yesterdays UKMO 120 with todays 96, Saturday may not be that unsettled in southern and central areas at all if this continued.

im in two minds tbh, we have been here before especially in 06 and 13 on here very few thought it was over come august - plenty of the usual 'too early to write it off' ..... but it sadly wasnt. on the other hand im not getting the feel that its over, and am mindful of what the likes of tamara has been saying. my only concern is that atm theres no real sign in the anomalies that support the more progressive operational runs. but at worst its looking 'normal' , which for august isnt actually bad! (ignoring many recent augusts).

Turning in to an MCS?

Can see that stuff over Cherbourg being a Kent clipper and following a similar path to that huge May 2017 storm that hit SE Kent. In fact, it almost looks like an exact carbon copy thus far.

Looking SW from Hastings:

Just stood out in the garden in swim shorts for a 'briefs' spell of rain. I'll get my coat. Might need it.

Top 10 first weeks of August 1st... 21.5C 1975 2nd... 20.9C 1995 3rd... 20.2C 1933, 1868 5th... 19.8C 2003, 1990 7th... 19.7C 2004 8th... 19.6C 1856 9th... 19.5C 1897, 1999 So at 19.9C, we provisionally sit in there at 5th place

Manchester Summer Indices Summers in order with the best at the top 1976 301 1995 298 2018 292 (up to 6th August) 1983 278 1955 277 1911 274 1984 271 1959 269 1975 268 1949 267 1989 262 1947 255 1933 251 1901 249 1921 249 2003 247 2013 247 1925 246 2006 246 1996 245 1935 243 1994 240 2018 240 <-------if rest of August records zero sunshine, rain everyday and mean maximum of 15C

Was just about to comment, it's the best op run I've seen for ages. To be fair, the ops have been suggesting a high pressure build around mid-month for a while now, with a few small setbacks here and there. The ECM wasn't quite as encouraging for that this morning but it will be interesting to see what the 12z runs bring. I really feel that we haven't seen the last of the heat this summer. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a more encouraging outlook later on.

Will do my update in the car on way home later after work around 4pm ish

Actually don't think it will be that bad, looks like 25c and sunny tomorrow then average.. Met Office even mention weekend feeling warm and humid once more

It will be a shame to see the heat go, whilst it's a bit of a pain when working or trying to get to sleep, I do miss it when we end up with days upon days of greyness and cloud. I'm slightly confused as to why there seems to be so many people on the forum arguing about the weather, very odd, worse in the winter/snow mind. Looks like there's a fair bit of uncertainty as to how widespread the storms will be tonight, looks like the further East you are of the region the more chance you have.

Mediocrity...I will take it any time over the heatwave in SW Europe. It is not all doom and gloom, it could be much worse, it will still feel summery, don't need 30C to celebrate Summer, 20C is just right. We are lucky living on this Island without very extreme heatwaves (so far), you have to endure some Atlantic influence in return. I see no washout or cold for the season on the models (currently). I will now go outside and enjoy the Summer!

My honest opinion... though lots of output suggests another warm up after mid month, my gut feeling is that I've seen this before in August - an end to a good spell for a significant period of time, the models keep predicting a return to good weather, only for it to get flattened by yet another low nearer the time. Hopefully this time will be different, just as the summer so far has been. But my gut feeling is the north is not going to see much more hot weather this month. For the south, perhaps 2-3 day periods between fronts. And for peak temperatures, more like 25-27C than 30-33C. (though tonight's ECM could produce 30C mid next week if it's right)

Just wanted to thank you knocker for your posts. I check your updates daily and find them informative and reliable. Keep up the good work!