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I think its a given that everyone understands we are not twinned with Ayers Rock - but there is understandable interest in heat records at unusual times like this However, while balance is always a very good thing, that that certainly doesn't mean over compensating by putting an absurdly over dampened and misconstrued slant on realities.. A small minority continue to unhelpfully distort perspective for reasons only they will know. *Its her broken record time once more I know* but always necessary to read between the lines when it comes to NWP and accept that a diagnostic approach to numerical models can help decipher where signals are being misconstrued or overdone. The few overreactive and unsubstantiated comments on this thread are much harder to comprehend than the intra day variations and apparent departures that the numerical models all too often come up with - and which promote the reactions themselves. So good reasons, yet again, to step back and try and see the trees for the wood NWP not surprisingly jumping on the tropical signal waning over the Pacific which leads to the temporary loss of influence of the Scandinavian ridge. Hence it fully explains why the trough has greater influence at the weekend into early next week than seemed apparent. But then guidance has been steady in troughs bumping up against the summer ridging and so really what is happening is still within the envelope of possibilities stated on the tin. Stating the obvious perhaps, but I do think that nothing more, nothing less should be made of this than it merits. Set against this extraordinary summer as a whole and in context of the much bigger picture outlook it is a mere snapshot in time and really doesn't merit over dramatization. As discussed yesterday, the tropical signal looks set to re-emerge back over the Pacific (its not just my own modest consensus on this) and its a matter of timing in terms of ressurection of our summer ridging closer by as the trough recedes to the NW.. There are going to be some adjustments to angular momentum with this passage of events and its wise not to prematurely seize on NWP solutions which while they may not be wholly incorrect, may well amount to temporary positions and not end games in themselves. As alluded to yesterday in this respect the GWO is now on the cusp of the El Nino attractor phase 5 This is a clear sign that the atmosphere is embracing a weak El Nino shift. With the shifts in tropical activity we are seeing to the Pacific that are part of a long term change in regime, then its intuitive to expect westerly winds bursts to be associated with this which will have the effect of Asian jet extensions in the extra tropics that will serve to promote cyclonic activity in the Pacific. The downstream ramifications of this is to promote a corresponding trough and ridge configuration in the Atlantic and European sector. The longer term trend of uptick of activity in the Pacific also suggests the sub tropical Jetstream increasingly coming into play as time goes on which supports further advection of heat from the south with ridging overlaying advancing troughs. Its still early and not the strongest signal (yet) but EPS clusters starting to play around with this theme With all that in mind then its interesting that EPS is keener to see a more -ve NAO signal than the operational So best to wait and see how NWP resolves matters and not take too much at face value over the coming days in terms of initial placement of positioning of the re-setting of the ridge and where any trough sets up that counters the intuitive solutions. That also is a cautionary word to anyone who is tempted to try to suggest that further reload of a very warm/hot pattern is being indefinitely postponed

I'm afraid apart from this weekend, I have to entirely disagree with this post. Yes this weekend is looking very unsettled now for many but this this has been the case for some time now so is no surprise (and not a downgrade as a result!) You mention that the GFS and UKMO struggles to settle things down....well here is the UKMO at 144 hours. Looks far from being unsettled and is an improvement on what it was showing yesterday. The low in the Atlantic retreating and high pressure building firmly across all of the UK. Not what I would suggest as 'struggling to settle down' so could be construed as being misleading. You reference the GFS being an outlier in terms of heat for next week....well having a look through the ensemble members within the suite, all of the perturbations at 192 have the high pressure system thoroughly in control of the conditions bring hot or very hot conditions. Approx 80% of the members with the 15c isotherm over the UK. Only 20% of members have the high in a slightly different position with less hot uppers but still mid to high twenties at surface level. Here are all ensuite members at 192. Here is the representative mean at the same timeframe with a large blocking high pressure and mean uppers between 10 and 16c widely north to south. In addition, when you compare the operational run to all other members including the control run, you will see it was one of the, if not the coldest member within its suite. There is significant support widely this morning for a lengthy spell of hot or very hot conditions developing mid week onwards and lasting well into August. The GEM is also brilliant from midweek to day 10. There is absolutely no downgrade this morning.

Still large uncertainty regarding how soon the heat builds and even how widespread it is before the advance on the UK. Out of UKMO, GFS and GEM, GFS is the odd one out with a much flatter jet on the south-eastern flank of the Atlantic trough. This being because the other two models develop an extra shallow low that moves across the UK Mon-Tue, holding up the advance of tropical maritime air from the west while - crucially in terms of the first line of this post - sending modified polar maritime air southward across at least part of France, with the heat plume being split into two parts; an intense section to the S of the UK and a 'merely' hot section to the SE/E of the UK. Such an outcome reduces the margin of variability on the intense heat dome outside of which that heat misses the UK. The GEM 12z shows how it could then be held to the S then SW, but that's with the ridge taking longer to reach back to our NE than seems likely given the background signals Tamara updated us on earlier, so when it comes down to it the chances of such intense heat visiting the UK at some point within the first week of August are still much higher than usual, and they remain unusually high into week 2 for that matter.

Towards Leeds City centre

Firming up of opinion over here for a strong high pressure cell to develop over the NW of Britain by the start of week two in August. Almost similar as to the start of the summer with heat and sunshine transferring back to the North and West. Wind vectors back to between east and north as falling heights over mainland Europe. Interesting thoughts. See if the main models take this up further into the outlook. Possibly UK Met office will start to indicate this development soon. C

As I've no doubt everyone is aware quite a complicated picture over the next couple of days, much of which will be real time observing, before a more mundane period sets in so this will merely be a simplistic outline. It's been a pretty clear night for most But for all that temps have remained high in many areas, still hovering around the 20C mark in the south. This sets the tone for the rest of the day which will be generally sunny and very warm, particularly in the south east where it will be hot. Cloud will bubble up and a few isolated storms could be generated in the east/north east. Out to the west the wave depression is tracking rapidly north and the associated front is over Ireland so cloud and patchy rain may impinge on N. Ireland and western Scotland later. Overnight Thursday the aforementioned cold front moves slowly east and the general movement of the system to the west drags even warmer air up from the south thus eastern and south eastern regions could well be hotter than today. But this is complicated by storms also tracking north east and later the cooler air from the cold front entering the mix thus all the ingredients for some nasty storms developing in eastern areas with possibly, hail, lightening and localized intense rainfall if you catch one. The storms. cloud, etc is a complicating factor vis the max temp By Saturday the cold front is in the North Sea with a complex area of low pressure to the NW/N thus a much cooler day for everyone albeit still some storms and showers around. Sunday sees the next wave depression and associated fronts arriving from the south west so a generally cloudy, rainy day, with strengthening winds and certainly much cooler than of late. The rain will generally clear by Monday except for N. Ireland and Scotland which may well still experience some heavy rain and quite strong winds The NH profile at T120

Stunning clouds here, tonight.

GFS 12z seems to have upper level trough in a better position compared to the 6z. Weather looks ok for Saturday anywhere south of north Wales(approx). Looking forward to a couple of ‘fresher’ days before the thermostat gets cranked up at the end of next week!!! MNR

You do talk some negative nonsense at times, I was just about to comment on how much BETTER the 06Z is than the 00Z. We already know there is going to be a cooler and more unsettled period over this weekend, into early next week. It's what's after that that most of us are intrigued by, and GFS is now showing a slow build of some serious heat after midweek.

I think we have circa 20 days, tops, to break any ultimate heat record. After that, summer will be dying on its backside in terms of optimal potential...thank the lord! I think if we fail to tap into the most of the heat next weekend, us that don't want upper 30s are in the clear for this season...

Thank god the ECM 12z is not a hot run . It keeps the the real heat away right from T48 all the way to T240 . Still warm but nothing like this weeks heat . Good job as well

So basically a few days of slight fresher air from Saturday/Sunday then more sunny and hot weather, great output.

The GEFS 12z mean turns into a cracking run with high pressure / strong azores ridging and becoming hot again across most of england and wales, warm / very warm further n / w...so this upcoming cooler / fresher more changeable / unsettled atlantic incursion soon runs out of steam next week and the very summery conditions return.

There's a lot to like about the Gfs 12z operational..it shows a marked improvement during the second half of next week as high pressure builds in and temperatures start to soar again, especially across southern uk, beyond that, more hot, humid plumey weather mixed with strong ridging so plenty of hot, dry and sunny weather but a risk of thunderstorms at times too..similar to tomorrow actually.

Also, these two pigeons are shagging on my neighbour’s roof - it’s all kicking off in Leeds today.

The ukmo 12z shows better signs of improvement by T+144 hours which would continue to increase during the second half of next week as the azores ridge builds in and it gradually warms up again, at least further south.

Bloody big jump from Reigate but I'll just nip out and give it a go. Missed.

The 6z run, once again shows high pressure and high temperatures beginning the middle of next week. After a brief cooler and more unsettled spell, as has been the case for many days now, the strong signal for high pressure remains. These are the charts for Thursday to Saturday at the moment. Temps widely in the low thirties. It's very annoying when people persistently troll this forum with rubbish. Have a look for yourselves....where is the downgrade? I don't see one I just see lots more sunshine and hot weather It's nice that it's within 162 hours now not 240 Uploaded Saturday to Thursday by mistake

The heatwave was never in the realistic time frame and has always been showing from approximately 2nd August. This run shows high temps and high pressure again from the 2nd August, exactly the same as the past few days.

The ECM has been quite persistant in not really developing any real Atlantic troughing next week and sticks with a fairly flat jetstream which gradually weakens which allows heights to slowly rise. The heat is never really allowed to build. Looking at the GFS at day 7 You can see that dip in the Atlantic where cooler air sinks southwards which allows the heat over Spain to slowly push northwards creating the hotter conditions for week 2. The UKMO is more extreme with this at day 6 with a clear trough developing to allow heights to build strongly north east over the UK. The UKMO solution would be the one to pin your hopes on (If you like heat), even if you get a UK wide cooler day on Tuesday. Just for clarity, here are the ECM ens, using the same frames as the ECM Plenty of hotter outcomes in there in my opinion with a stronger ridge over the UK later on with a clearly marked shallow Atlantic trough helping to push the heat northwards. Plenty of scope for changes in the coming days. Still a chance of getting close to the UK July record tomorrow (I think the all time record is safe and frankly I think it was never under threat).

A hot day, coming down to the valley at 1700m it’s about 26c. You can see Mont Blanc this morning before any clouds formed and this afternoon with cumulonimbus towering over it. Had storms around 8pm last two evenings which is fine as the days have been dry!

Now the rain has arrived

Looking at the GEFS 6z mean it won't be long into next week before things improve, markedly so after next midweek with high pressure and increasing warmth / heat returning from the south, southern uk becomes hot once again..and then stays hot well into August!☺

Afternoon all I don't see this concensus for heat at the end of next week and the beginning of the following week that some can see from the 06Z GEFS. First, it's low-res and FI when we're talking T+276 charts or beyond. That's not to say they can't or won't verify but nothing can be taken for granted at this stage. Looking through the members, yes, there are a number which bring the 20c 850HPA up to and across southern parts but there are a good number which don't. Yes, the heat builds to the south and through Iberia, no question, but it's far from clear to this observer that the hot air will reach our shores at this time. Yes, it might still be fine but more in the realms of very warm than very hot. As ever, more runs are needed.

There sure is something strange going on with the GFS and ECM deterministic runs at the moment. It looks like a misguided attempt to override the Nino standing wave pattern with the effects of the MJO decay that they keep going for - but why this would affect the det. runs far more than the ensembles is beyond me. Nearer in time, GFS 00z is like the ECM 00z of yesterday for Sat-Sun with a particularly strong set of lows affecting the UK. Meanwhile today’s ECM 00z is less vigorous but still brings a pretty cool weekend with maximums high teens to low 20s for most. Still mild by night through; mid-teens or so in the brisk wind. The handling of this weekend has undeniably been a massive modelling farce, but it is an unusually complex situation with an intense plume, a broad Atlantic trough and a potentially quite vigorous secondary low all coming together at once in the vicinity of the UK.

well they are being consistent which is something the gfs and ecm arent really being.... plus, the anomaly charts support tamaras outlook... whilst no one, no suite, is infalible, id put my money on the consistent one with a proven track record of being more accurate. it would be very rare for the consistent anomaly charts to be completely wrong. my only concern with them is that the pattern the 8-14 day chart has long predicted is taking a while to show in the 6-10 dayer, because obviously the 6-10 dayer is more accurate of the two, but its moving there.

Another disturbed nights sleep here in S.E.London. Really had enough of this heat now!! Had to come downstairs for a couple of hours and sit under our lounge fan. Despite having our bedroom fan on full blast, just felt as if it was circulating hot air and it's a decent brand too. Problem is, our bedroom is tiny and the heat just builds and builds and doesn't disperse. Having had a brain haemorrhage/stroke in 2015, my energy levels are zilch!! The last few weeks, have really wiped me out!!Roll on Autumn!! Regards, Tom.

Have succumbed to the heat in the bedroom tonight, despite having a fan on full blast and have come downstairs, to sit under our other fan. Fortunately, Stepson has remedied our internet connection, which was down, bless him!! Evidently, still around 23c outside, yuck!! Really looking forward to getting, what little hair I have left, cut tomorrow. Although I have little on top, it's still quite thick at the back and the sides and makes the back of my neck, very sweaty and sticky, in this weather!! Before my brain haemorrhage/stroke, in 2015, I used to have my head shaved but my wife doesn't like it and she's worried that vibration from clippers, will cause another brain bleed, despite my Consultant Neurologist assuring her, it wouldn't!! Says a shaved head makes me look a bit thuggish and Italian Mafioso-ish. A bit like this - I prefer it like this, much less hassle, low maintenance and easier than trying to arrange a couple of strands, on top of my head!! Anyway, she's boss, so I won't be having it shaved tomorrow, more's the pity!! He's a better detective than me, anyway!! Ended up in casualty at Queen Mary's hospital, Sidcup, on Monday evening, after my left ankle became swollen to twice the size of the right one!! Wife takes no chances with me now, after seeing me die twice, after my brain haemorrhage. Worrying that it was a blood clot, whipped me off to casualty, bless her. After seeing a triage nurse, BP was fine, that was reassuring. Then waited three hours to see a doctor, who reassured us, it wasn't a blood clot but in his opinion, a reaction, to the extreme heat. Doctor told me to rest the leg, as much as possible, keep it elevated and drink plenty of fluids. After really struggling in this heat, perhaps I won't be so bullish about cold and snow!! As we know, that can also be a health hazard, to the sick and elderly. As the saying goes, "One man's meat, is another man's poison!! Regards, Tom.

I expect the human input to the NOAA charts is an adjustment of the multi-model super-ensemble mean east, applied due to past experience of the models making too much of MJO-related forcing compared to the tropical-extratropical mechanisms captured by GLAAM and the GWO (for example). So currently, the models read in an MJO-related signal for reduction in Scandinavian, but then take it to far. This spring and summer, ECM’s done this more than even GFS. For whatever reason, UKMO has not proved anywhere near so prone to this overreaction in recent months. In fact I think it may go slightly too far the other way, with this being responsible for it being the last to latch onto just how far into the UK the trough looks to make it this Sunday. Anyway - the result of all the above is that I’ll be truly shocked if the ridge actually spends as long centred W or SW of the UK as the 12z ECM and GEM runs depict.

not sure whos forecasting what but the one arriving @29c is going to be wrong EA reaches thicknesses of 1410 Dam just a shade unde the record 1428 - difference of about 2c. 36/37c is a go.

Here is my totally unbiased, professional opinion on tonight's events.

Metoffice one of their forecasts going for things heating up in Far East. Been the case for a couple days now

As I said a bit earlier, the GEFS 12z mean will cheer up those of us who can't get enough of this gorgeous summer with high pressure / strong azores ridging returning .becoming very warm / hot again across at least the southern half of the uk..more please, much more!!

After 3.5 hours sleep last night, driving to Norwich (29.5c at Baldock 10:15; 33.5c as I drove north on A11 towards Thetford at 11.15 but lower at 32.5 once I got to outskirts of Norwich. That coincided with a brisk breeze for which I was truly grateful. Left my car with son (it’s his now ) and sampled the hell of a very delayed train with NO air conditioning from Norwich to Cambridge, except it terminated at Ely because the announcer said “it is a very, very poorly train”. I rather suspected he’d then muttered something about ‘it was fuc**d’. Or that may have been just the voices in my head by then. Train to Cambridge was at least cool but managed to be slow enough to miss train from there to my nearest town. The next one was, unsurprisingly, cancelled.. Waiting for almost an hour squeezed on hideously overcrowded boiling platform, as at least 6 trains had either been cancelled or had broken down, with cross, sweaty crowds and suddenly realised was having murderous thoughts towards people, young people who can cope with extreme temperatures, that continue to claim this summer heat is great, fantastic etc. Finally, nearly 5 hours after I started idiotic idea of using public transport on hottest day, arrive home to my oven of a Devil designed house in Hell, with garden shade temperature still at 31c (sunny here) and find that we are likely to get blasted thunderstorms, strategically timed to ensure no one in that red area sleeps tonight. Dehydrated, headache, swollen feet and dizzy. God. Where’s the gin....

Cell to the west of Sheffield just moving past Ladybower Res and Stanage Edge at this time

Yes, that is what has struck me about the reload towards the end of next week, the margin of error with such a huge breadth of hot air to the south. And it hits at T240 on this run: My bet is it's unlikely to break the all time record tomorrow, but I wouldn't rule it out somewhere between 4and 8 August.

Hottest day so far for me. Looking forward to a bit of a cool down over the weekend

Was in Norfolk today, but this was coming back from kings Lynn. Incredible how fast this was rising. Massive updrafts evident in these explosive conditions. Feels like I’m in Singapore today! Very steamy.

That is a monster load of heat. Any push from that from any direction south of east- west and we would be burning up big time!! MNR

Day 6 UKMO/GFS/GEM The UKMO only looks like going one way for the end of the week with high pressure building north east across the UK. The GEM looks a little messy and ends up with the high generally south west of the UK. The GFS is flatter and slower with the push of the heat but it does get there by the end of the week with high pressure slap bang over the UK, the 20C isotherm is covering most of the meditaranean which is a real sight to see. That is one monster pool of heat.

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean longer term looks just as good as yesterday etc.. strengthening ridge building in and temperatures on the rise, especially further south later next week onwards.

At T48,72 the second wave is on it's way portending a wet an quite windy day on Sunday

Really enjoying the last couple of runs. Looking forward to weather a bit more pleasant and manageable persisting with some rain.

Oh how I wish a large MCS would plow straight through the SE tonight...

...a what?

Nah we should be ok. Plume will destabilise through this evening and overnight, so surface heating shouldn’t be much of an issue. Tomorrow could be a corker, maybe not directly overhead, but certainly in the vicinity.

Indeed. Some people should jump to the ramp and moan thread as they insist on looking at individual runs rather than the bigger picture.

Not tryin to put a dampner on anything but one thing ive noticed is the high seems to be creeping ever so westwards with each run recently and if that continues we can forget bout the next heatwave lol!!and also gfs is really unsettled for sunday!!ecm is reluctant to build strong heights in and the longer this takes the higher the chance of things going wrong for heat lovers!!ive not seen the ecm go for the heatwave full on for the last 48 hours now so it is starting to be a concern for me at least!it needs to come aboard and fast!!ukmo best output this morning!!

00Z certainly a downgrade for summer fans in FI, was showing 30+ degrees, now much cooler NW'lys, only 18 degrees now on Sat 4th, only 1 GFS op so may not happen

Popeye! Gutting you lost everything else. Today was super hot again, and tonight the choice is, open the window for some air and cooling plus get bitten to death by mossies or window closed and bake to death. Yikes. That's it, I'm going to Google "rain dance" see if that works. Lol. Desperate measures.