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So, its very warm to hot for most of this week , a cooler blip come weekend, and then there seems to be a growing signal for the heat to rebuild as we move through next week. The EC mean is primed by day 10 to re introduce a plume from Spain. You really have to tip your hat to Tamara who has been incredibly accurate in recent weeks.. Summer 2018 is surpassing all expectations/hopes. edit With so many brilliant contributors to this forum its hard to single out people but i forgot to mention stormchaser who has also been absolutely brilliant with his analysis and reasoning. Thanks to these guys and all the others who make this forum both educational and a thoroughly enjoyable reading.

Just adding one more point to the discussion- Why are we talking records being broken next weekend-? We are looking at about 36/37 degrees in the Extreme SE on Friday with a slither of upper air temp @18c- The original core heat over spain was maxed out at 21/22c - which in truth isnt 'that' hot for them - ( probably average spanish uppers ) Now move forward 10 days & the plume thats potentially developing for the UK actually develops North out of Africa with uppers bordering 30c (192 ) This is like cold pooling in winter - with the +30c line being like the -26c line getting towards Berlin. This moves North & modifies as it does but the size of the heat bubble proper trumps this week - *IF* this alligns Northwards out of Africa > Spain > North to UK & we get the 21c isotherm over the sea we will break the record. 100% S

Never mind all this heat, lets have some more of this, lets hope we carry on where we left off at the end of last winter.

Despite virtually all EPS and GEFS ensembles showing temperatures remaining above average for the next 2 weeks. Nice try.

GFS 192 beginning to smell the coffee for the August heatwave.... 20c pushing North out of spain !! Look at that furnace of heat over SW / southern Europe

Apologies for replying to my own post, but like most coldies rarely do I post in here in Summer. But, yes, the above still applies and far too many in here, stick to the models' temperature forecasts and don't seem to appreciate that they are merely guesses, the reality at t+24, t+72 or t+360 hours is always an unknown. Mid-range temps, say D3 to D6 are often out by two or three degrees, hence Monday's maxes were two days before, predicted to be lower yet 33c was breached. Mine and your gut feeling of past heatwave experiences, climate or even basic weather knowledge and the appreciation of the conditions, here and now, can allow you to make a reasonable judgement. With the Beeb on board with a max temp 34c/35c prediction for Thursday, my attention now turns to the end of July and first ten days of August, I'm thinking the dry Europe heat sink conditions will spread northwards and such maximums will be repeated and potentially exceeded. 36c on the cards in the next 15 days? Watch this space!

I have to echo this northwestsnow. Tamara, singularity and others have been very impressive in their grasp on the situation this summer. It’s been really enjoyable to follow. What’s also been great is the number of contributors this summer, it’s rivalled winter for the amount of posts and buzz for me. It’s been great to see so many coldies in here this year chasing the heat too! Great stuff

ECM moving the heat dome from spain 192 > 216 > 240 20c not far away for Sat 4th just based on ECM 12z 216 /240 we will be 30c ISH day 9 & low to mid 30s Day 10 Im earmarking the 5th & 6th as possible record breaking dates...

Met office now officially on board with 36C For Friday

Just to echo the above, Tamaras forecasts have been spot on, even in the face of model chaos trying to force unsettled and cooler stuff in at times....she has held firm and been proved right time and time again. Invaluable to have posters like this on net weather!

So many questions and no clear answers from the models this morning. - Where will the convective activity track late Thu through Fri? Central parts eastward or just eastern parts? - Will the secondary low at the weekend zip past to the northwest or take a pit stop to the southwest? There's a very wide range of rainfall patterns being suggested for Sat-Mon. - If it does move to our SW, will it then lift out north ECM-style, take a swipe at the UK? The UKMO 00z actually manages to produce such an outcome for day 7, much to my surprise! - As the increase in SLP across the UK in the 8-10 day range kicks in, how resilient will the Scandinavian High prove to be i.e. how much of an E component is there to the flow? Good luck, forecasters .

Looking decidedly omminous going forward as we move into August. I am not one for posting charts from the past but the set up on show here is pretty much identical to how a certain heatwave fifteen years ago initiated. Declining Scandi ridge, heat building strongly over Iberia and southern France, a weak Atlantic trough which will build the ridge sufficiently over the UK without pushing too far north. It might and probably will not happen in the same manner it did in 2003 but there are some serious warning signs as we head into week 2. Anyway lets get the rest of this week out of the way before we think about another heatwave, mainly as the models struggle to consistency model a rather deep Atlantic trough against an extremely strong ridge to our east.

On a more earmarked note; against the grain of hyping things in the winter..the opposite jumps in here. On a global frontal -its notable to see that even the jet dipping and diving on a raw scale...will oddly on this occasion 'very likey' aid convection of heat into the uk...the heat ball is such of that ..'that' even the given profile(jet) into August would usually mean typical summer fayre..however on what is a unusual scenario/scenario's..the given hit is a liable for big heat infusion!! The iberian-and' continental heat fuse just add fuel to the fire...(pun intended).. And the equitorial mass of hp-dominance..and that of want to make'constant' inroads to deep northern hem-lattitudes..is going to be one demon to breakdown. The notion of it being any hotter than of late..with the persistance seems crazy.... However...it clearly is'nt!!!!

the problem with the gfs is that it brings the atlantic trough much closer towards us then the noaa anomaly charts do. they keep it well out nearer the azores. so im not buying the gfs's version of affairs, pressure will rise after this weekend to our east, the atlantic low is expected to weaken, but be centered further west. this would suggest that the run of hot southerly sourced air will not be a 24-48 hour wonder, but could last longer.

We need to keep an, eye on dynamics for the weekend phase-due to mass complexities. On the note of latter prognosis the one snapshot ..i think sums up... Blip>then heat...and like a broken record..its very feasible that summer has the most notable yet in store!!

I agree with Steve above, the heat building to the south is exceptional, it no longer requires a direct hit to impinge the UK. Take GEM 12z for example, here's the T850s at the end of the run, bubbling under you might say: Have to say, the middle of this run looked dodgy to me, so no guarantee at all we end up here, but it would certainly pump up the heat next few days from this chart. Still think 5 August will be the day, we'll see! GFS at same time: Reservoir of heat there. And it will hit us in the end. Maybe even the rest of this run!

The weekend becoming very messy, the GFS keeps churning out very clean runs in terms of pushing the heat away and throws a fairly deep depression towards the UK over the weekend. The UKMO on the other hand disrupts the trough sufficiently to slow the cold front down so that it is still crawling across East Anglia on Saturday whilst the GFS at that point has the whole of the UK in a fresher (if still warm) westerly airstream. UKMO/GFS Oddly enough it is debatable that the Atlantic air ever really makes it across the the east with a slack complex surface pattern developing and it really very warm and humid with temperatures rising again on Monday. The GEM is even more extreme and develops a low over the south of the UK and cooler conditions. Just to note - The GFS gives a maximum of 32C on Friday (In comparision to 31C on Thursday), you could still add a degree or so to the actual maxima.

^^ Yes I checked the Aperge & the uppers got to 19c !!! @Mark wheeler link doesnt work ATM but yes maybe 10/20% the record could go although the window is small ECM 10 mean much more supportive of the conditions needed for record breaking heat - S

Interesting looking at the 06z GFS charts at T30hrs to see the distribution of heat going right up to N.Cape(Norway) at around 70N suggesting surface readings in the 20's C even right up there. We can see the temperature contrast either side of the jetstream as it heads up the Norwegian coast line. Plenty of red colours around the hemisphere with only Greenland standing out as the island of blue. That Atlantic trough seems an almost stationary feature out west just modifying the heat somewhat for the UK from time to time especially further north and west but this is quite a notable dry period with any Atlantic rain bearing features quickly losing their strength as they move into the UK.

Yes 36c For Extreme SE Fri Remember this time last week many writing this sort of temp off- Could we squeeze a 37c ... 37.8 is 100F ...

Thanks Mushy from a tenant farmer still practising a seven course rotation of three years cereals one year roots (turnips) and three years grass for grazing and silage/hay.. A lot of weather related problems on farms just now stem from intensive farming of crops (monoculture) or livestock (Mega dairies of over a 1000 cows). The lack of mixed farming runs down soil fertility in the persuit of short term gain mainly due to very low commodity prices. This will all change this autumn as food price rises will exercise the minds of politicians more than Brexit (Just my opinion) The reason for this is ainof is not only happening here but also in a lot of the main food producing areas of the northern hemisphere. An interesting one for me is how long the supermarkets will manage to keep prices low as most commodities are on contract now unlike 1976 when most were free market and prices rose sharply on diminished supplies. Contracts for farmers are good in oversupplied years as they guarantee a minimum price but not in years like this Our growth stages are now running one month ahead as all plants race to produce seed for the next year to ensure survival.and a lot of plants have had their quota of sunshine and feel autumn is here. On the point of subsidies we do get them but they are factored into our rents and so the landlord gets a proportion.

ECM mean at T240, a fine weather lover would take this any day in summer, no?

Evening all. A daily visitor but rare poster during the summer months, but this spell has forced me in here. This on Friday at 2:00pm with 14c uppers across the spine of the country and 18c across Kent and East Anglia. Friday is going to be a furnace in these areas, however I suspect we'll come up just shy of the all time record (36.5c is my guess). I can't believe I'm saying it, but a cool and wet weekend would be most welcome but I'm not convinced we'll see much rain down here in the south east.

todays noaa 500 mb 8-14 day chart, and it continues the evolution previously suggested... imho its a completely sound consistent evolution. the atlantic trough weakening and sitting more over the azores whilst the scandinavian/northern european high retrogresses towards us. this can only mean more lengthy spells of heat, and a roasting start to august must be a distinct possibility. the ecm and gfs are hinting at severe heat over spain shifting northwards for this time period. i expect some 'roasting runs' to start to firm up for early august. of course this is not a 'given' , nothing is, but id be very suprised if the noaa's were far from correct or as near as damnit!

Shorter term, Thursday looks very hot with 30C reached across most of England The arpege goes a little nuts creating a heat low over the centre of the country sparking off thunderstorms, general consensus keeps these very isolated during daylight hours on Thursday so I suspect 90F will be reached widely with 34C (Perhaps 35C) reached across the south east. This model shows a 36C in the far east of East Anglia on Friday, but again showers develop across many central and eastern parts of the UK which keep temperatures down. Worth noting that temperatures will reach and potentially surpass 100F across Belgium and Holland on Friday. That is some serious heat and not very far from us. Actually Friday looks like a real nightmare to forecast purely for the potentially dangerous conditions from either extreme heat or torrential thunderstorms and the fact that neither could occur as well.

Could be some huge fireworks as well in terms of storms that evening!

The way the GEFS / ECM mean look so far today..and recent days, there is a lot of support for the predominantly hot weather to continue, and judging by the latest update from exeter, Mogreps, GloSea5, Ec32 etc must be suggesting August could be the hottest month with very hot potential, especially further south..Exciting summer, normally this forum is dead in summer but not this year!☺

Looking at the GEFS 6z mean there's no end in sight to this fabulous summery pattern..well into early August for england and wales it looks very warm / hot for most / all of the time!..incredible!☺

Fantastic Gfs 6z operational with everything about summer I love.. i.e plumes, thunderstorms and lots of dry hot sunny conditions..here's a few charts looking further ahead from this lovely run. ☺

What an Ecm 00z ensemble mean this is..Beautiful!..excellent signs further ahead for this wonderful summer to continue. ?️..

Reporting in from the Tour du Mont Blanc, not far from Courmayeur. Weather has been good so far, had one shower on Sunday night after I’d set up camp and there’s some thunder rumbling around me in the high peaks this evening but dry at the moment. Temperature obviously varies with altitude but pleasant walking, mostly in the 15c-25c range. Cooler at night. Needless to say the scenery is fantastic! Even got some walking on snow in on some of the higher passes!

I recommend straight into the bin instead......

Gfs 6z making a little less drama of the iclandic low of deepening the trough.. Also of note is the more organised scandinavian large HP spread...all in all a quicker route back to notable heat influence... We'll see how it develops?!!

Slightly melodramatic? What about the tourist industry? Those going on road trips, camping, trekking, hill walking, etc? Those going to the beach, swimming in the sea or rivers? I doubt that they’re miserable. They certainly would be if it was cold and wet! I bet you that the countryside will have complete ‘recovered’ in a few months.

Discounting-850s for a moment and viewing the overall evolution. Its screaming pressure slits- and by its nearly conclusion...again the heat trap is on...with a primmed aim and target at our shores. Ridging is constantly pointing at a one way road...as the atlantic Want of injection.....yet again fails to materialise!! Its all glory this season 4- constant ridge/hp elevation... The gods are trying but have'nt the strength to twist the heat syphon to negative!!!

Met office apparently going for a 20% chance of the record being broken Friday according to guidance statement. I’ve not looked at any charts this evening though, but interesting percentage in the mix there, would love to see (as ever) what they’re seeing on MOGREPS

Lovely output so far this evening with the heat looking like continuing.

My interest in the 12s is split between the heat Friday, and the following weekend. Looking at this Friday first, even though it's only 3 days, there is still uncertainty. Here ICON, GEM and GFS GEM the one that brings the records! UKMO now available:

They're clearly fancying UKMO (and ARPEGE + AROME) over GFS and ECM on this one. With that level of heat, the potential thunderstorms across eastern parts by the evening could be seriously intense in a few spots. It's still unclear whether the associated area of upper-level instability will initially arrive as elevated thunderstorms across CS England; the models are generally weaker with the rainfall rates compared to yesterday so perhaps not - just some showery, mostly light rain. Might give the wildlife a bit of relief - though the 2-5 mm being shown widely across the region could be optimistic based on recent experiences (soil moisture feedback...). It will be interesting to see if the 12z UKMO unfolds as strangely as the 00z one did for days 5-7; sending the upper low right over the UK was very out of kilter with recent modelling consensus + anticipated background signals.

Im inclined to agree... GLTW August for me the real heat month!!!

Totally agree. How people can want 37C sticky heat is beyond me. It’s just not enjoyable.

The appreciation is much appreciated, cheers GFS 06z more akin to the ECM 00z in moving the trough axis through the UK Mon-Tue but with the front fizzling out by the time it reaches eastern parts of England. Still enough to freshen things up for at least one day though. This appears to be a required step if we're to see a decent build of pressure from the southwest over the following couple of days. GFS 06z for next Wednesday is much more the kind of Atlantic-Scandinavian Blocking High standoff that's long been anticipated to take shape at some point next week. Let's see if the model can be less progressive than it so often is - or will it break the run of consecutive GFS 06z runs producing some of the hottest outcomes (currently 3 in a row)?

Indeed, some very clever people here on Netweather.....we are very fortunate. Also to echo how great it has been to see so many posters in this amazing Summer we are having. Still looking as though August could well produce the goods too.... and I’ve a feeling some awsome storms could be on the way.

The outlook remains much the same so as usual it's a matter of pinning down the regional detail. Overnight the cold front that brought some light rain to the north west yesterday has continued to stagger south east but any precipitation has virtually died out. Never the less it has still brought cloud to the the NW, Wales and parts of the west midlands which will linger all day but more importantly it marks the boundary between the cooler air behind it and the warm and more humid conditions further south where it will be sunny and very warm again today The cloud may linger in some places but generally a clear night for most but very warm in the south east again. So Wednesday will be sunny and warm with the odd shower in the north west but later in the day a chance of some storms in the south east, particularly East Anglia But as can be seen changes are afoot to the west and by 00 Thursday the quite intense upper low is getting organized and putting some pressure on the block. On the surface this equates to wave depressions running around the main surface low with the associated surface front(s) pushing east across Ireland whilst at the same time advecting warmer air from the south resulting in a very warm/hot day on Thursday with light rain attempting to push in from the west. During Friday the fronts will gain some traction and slowly traverse the country which will initiate a W/E split with the latter remaining very warm but also an increasing risk of storms By Saturday partly cloudy and cooler in much of the country but still quite warm in East Anglia, Thus at T120 the NH profile is thus

It’s been going on since May/June. I think remarkable is an understatement. If you spread this over a summer average, I think it could remain in the history books for a very long time indeed. 33.3c reached today, and from what I’m going by, there’s every potential of the 90F mark being breached every day this week somewhere. If this isn’t enough, then the start of August is looking like it could well be. Every bit of potential that we could be threatening the all time UK record.

Well it was a strange experience watching that 12z GFS roll out earlier. So much so that I'm going to provide some details, for entertainment value: Here at +168, the 12z on the right compared to the 06z on the left has a more conducive jet stream alignment to building the Scandinavian blocking high closer to our shores over the following few days, as the jet up the western flank of the block is stronger (better warm air advection aloft) and the jet to the SW of the UK is diving more to the south. Yet just two days later the blocking high seems to be just falling apart in-situ on the 12z run (middle chart), and a very peculiar section of flat jet stream has manifested in the N. Atlantic. I've never seen that manner of jet occur in a location with only a weak trough in position (rightmost chart). The 06z had the more natural (for weak troughs under +AAM regime) buckled jet and maintenance of the blocking high E and NE of the UK. It makes the difference between the blocking high persisting to day 10 and beyond and it being 'punctured' by the jet stream, leading to a (probably too rapid on this run anyway - it is GFS after all) capitulation with a more westerly upper flow taking over to our NE. Perhaps it was just a fluke run, with the misjudgement of the mid-Atlantic profile setting off a chain reaction - chaos theory in all its glory. Time will tell, but I'd be stunned if it wasn't, given the strong misalignment with the tropical forcing at play. To be fair to it though, all of the models are finding more westerly progressiveness and SW-NE ('semi-zonal', you might say) alignment to the troughs than could be expected with the +AAM background and eastward MJO propagation, likely due to their ongoing struggle at resolving the latter. I mean just look at this. Day after day, the EPS mean (shown as ECMF) seeks to kill the MJO off, and yet apart from a brief pause on 18th, the MJO has propagated eastward. So what about today? Another move east and a gain in amplitude! Honestly, this is the worst model handling of the MJO that I've witnessed since I started paying close attention during the winter of 2009/10. I believe it's a case of atmospheric inertia being underplayed against a Pacific tropical SST pattern that's only weakly supportive of the propagation. Perhaps this is where tight isobar's confidence has had some roots...? It may be too late for this MJO calamity to have much effect on the track of the Sun-Mon trough, but it might be enough to keep the S and SE under very warm or quite hot conditions (edit: just checked the rainfall charts for the ECM 12z and it has the front reaching all but the far southeast corner having already brought some intermittent rain to much of the south on Sunday afternoon! A shocking result given the signals but as CS alludes to, the trough evolution is dubious. You never know though!). I expect we'll gain a good idea about that within the next few days. Then... we'll see. I'd not entirely mind being wrong in that I could then enjoy something more akin to the May-June pattern of ridging from the southwest with relatively comfortable temperatures, but it would feel like an affront to teleconnection theory (tropical forcing is now very different to what we had May-June!) so I'm very divided in opinion! Regardless of the outcome, it's been very interesting and educational watching these models take on a combination of changing upstream forcing and unusual amounts of hot air amassing over the near continent, and I expect this will continue to be the case for a while longer yet .

Anyone else notice the difference in temperature across Finland and easpescially NE Russia as shown below in 2 posts just one hour apart?. -5 850's on the one by Liima and +20 on the one by Mike Poole ………. Probably represents a 30 - 40 degree difference at the surface. (and we think our weather forecasters have problems!!!)

Good news from the 00z runs, following a less hot fresher blip at the weekend, next week hots up again, the Ecm 00z looks as hot as some of us are seeing this week..the message is, the heat will return next week, especially further south!☺..in the meantime, enjoy this week's HEAT!

Definitely be glad when this comes to an end, us Brits work ourselves up into a frenzy when the hot weather comes due to the typically grey and dull conditions our island is famous for. But the truth is that, in countries where these conditions are common, the locals are sensible and avoid being exposed for too long, hoping for cooler conditions. There's this weird thing over here where it's seen as a bit of a weakness or a bit suspicious if you don't unconditonally welcome hot weather. As a golfer, these conditions are terrible for the course and for being uncomfortable to play in, which is sort of ruining the summer golfing season for me. Got lots of proper gardening to do as well, cutting stuff back, filling up bags and taking them to the tip, and all I can do is sit mainly in the shade and imagine myself working. It does make me chuckle though to think of the people completely committed to the "THIS WEATHER IS AMAZING" theory, standing on a packed tube train grimacing through a beaming smile while the sweat pours off them. "THIS IS GREAT, I'M LOVING THIS"

And that's the difference between dealing with significant cold and heat. At least with significant cold you can stick the heating on, it's far easier to warm up indoors in the cold than cool down in a heatwave with no a/c.