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@Singularity Yes, the usual caveats and cautionary words for deterministic MJO modelling - especially with this Pacific forcing Which leads appropriately onto this: Have been wondering for quite a while if this is where we are headed for the last third of the official summer in terms of overall pattern I hesitate to use these composite charts as they need careful assessment of the whole tropical and extra tropical wind-flow spectrum before applying to any suggested evolution of pattern and should never be taken at complete face value - certainly in terms of attempting to translate them into surface pressure detail. But this is consistent enough with transition years to El Nino starting from the Spring, and now showing the atmosphere starting to tentatively embrace a fledgling very weak Nino type of feedback for the first time in a long time... ..and more importantly than that, consistent with where angular momentum and tropical forcing are at this time as reflection of the base state changes that look to prevail the further official autumn approaches. Also seasonal wavelength changes, assuming relative angular momentum does not deviate too much below current levels in the natural tropical cycle (and this will need to be watched) will in my opinion guide the current evolving pattern in this general direction. Furthermore plenty of seasonal modelling supports this type of evolution and its worth noting in this respect also the very extended METO forecast indications heading through August. Taking heed of my own cautionary advice with respect to the composite chart above - the depth of the trough anomaly into Europe should best be interpreted as heat lows with the focus being the main upper trough to the west increasingly taking on a more disrupted aspect to the south west at the same time as the ridging to our NE overspreads the trough somewhat. So a continental feel to the weather and perhaps more prone to thundery disruption within the huge heat field that has taken siege occupation of much of Europe. I would like to see this as an acid test of some data, and as to be expected to be said by me, not a forecast - as I do not try to attempt these. But based on personal interpretation of the GSDM, in which a lot of kudo-faith is placed, and the way that NWP (ignoring the daily calf on roller-skates accident-prone type tendencies) is showing willing to stumble its way along this path as led most realistically by the upper modelling outlook forecasts, then it seems an intuitively fair suggestion to put out there. I think its also reasonable as part of this thinking to add support to Mushy's feasibility equation of a main heat spike dome in the early part of August. At least to some degree. If the trough pattern is to evolve, eventually, towards the SW as part of the above process, then its logical enough to assume that at least some of that greater heat (over and above the already existing very upwards adjusted levels of the summer so far) might be backed westwards - at least for a time. The ECM has been appearing progressive currently, relatively, with the pattern up to day 10. But even within this snapshot of time (which is all it is) one cannot ignore the next acceleration of trend in early August which is immediately beyond this period - in that respect not too different from GFS. And, which also leads full circle to the start of the post and the likelihood that Pacific forcing is not done with so soon. These stats might be London based, but taking into consideration the rationale eschewed in the post, it might be the greatest chance for wider plume advection. Its possible thereafter that a generally warm and humid regime prevails as the very greatest heat is mixed out and with scope for the drought to be alleviated to some degree as the heat more generally destabilises over larger areas within the evolving August regime. But that is filed away under pending based on how, precisely, the coming weeks play out. Summer 18 as a season has some weeks left in it, and in terms of its prevailing highly seasonal weather type, has quite some way to go yet

It does make me wonder how far east any fresher Atlantic air will get or whether these systems will simply sheer away and head north leaving the UK mostly dry with just a few showers. I think we are hitting a crossroads on how this summer will be remembered, whether it will be a great summer but potentially historic over parts of northern Europe or whether this will end up knocking 1995 and 1976 out of the park. If that ridge edges west enough to put us under that dome of heat then I suspect we could head for the potentially the hottest summer the UK has seen. This is exciting on one hand but potentially worrying in the other because I think even myself may find this too much. Perhaps another thing to consider if the huge Euro ridge gains control, a direct southerly feed towards the UK will be hotter than those further east thanks to a shorter sea track across the straight of Gibraltar and of course the far hotter conditions usually seen over the Spanish interior compared to other Mediterranean locations. All the ingredients are there, not only to threaten the all time temperature record for the UK, but to potentially surpass it comfortably and at this moment given the output we are seeing and the background signals which all seem to be egging this high on to build in strength, we have to look at this as a very real risk. Whilst I love the extreme conditions because they are always a surprised compared to the rather mundane conditions we see, I must admit that even I would prefer to have enough influence from the Atlantic trough to just temper the heat and of course offer a bit of rain at times.

Interesting - UKMO uses a weak low sliding by to our south to nudge the heat plume in a great deal more than GFS goes with on Friday. So much so that it still looks stalled across eastern parts on Sunday. So it seems we don't actually have any clue about the details for Fri-Sat yet. So much for an overall move toward not as hot but drier - though actually, it still does look drier than was the case a couple of days ago, as the Atlantic trough doesn't get so directly involved with proceedings. Maybe some heat-forced thunderstorms in the east, which would be intense but localised. Pleased to see Tamara's input today, reassuring me that I'm thinking straight even when contemplating the UK being involved in the 'greater' heat over nearby Europe for a time in early August. Heat which can exceed the usual upper limits due to a number of countries to our SE, E and even NE now being in a state of widespread drought. I believe that, along with our own dryness of soil, is why GFS has been showing such high maximums on some runs lately (along with such high 850s across such a wide area in a few cases; such prolonged and intense heat builds up from the surface in a 'heat dome' formation).

Something like this would be nice!

Except the charts you have posted are for next weekend....which is July. This is what the same model is predicting for August 1st Completely the opposite of what you have just posted.

On one extreme run, oddly the evolution was in the right ballpark but with the ridge far too west. Still if the UKMO is correct we could see temperatures hit the mid-thirties on Friday and only a shade lower on Thursday. The arpege for Thursday 33/34C across the south east, ties in with the metoffice forecasts too. The arpege evolution is similar to the UKMO out to the end of its run (Though you have to bring up the UK view on meteociel). Not record breaking, but it puts some parts of the UK into the very hot category. The risk looks like persisting well into August with the longwave pattern looking very slow moving or almost stuck. I must admit I do feel for those east of us who could be in for a prolonged and potentially severe heatwave with this stretching quite far north into Scandinavia. The GEFs, well the ridge does seem to want to back west into the start of August. Very very omminous.....

Guys, don’t reply to posts you feel are trolling, please report them and the team will sort them. more replies = more posts to remove to get the discussion on track and quite honestly it is waaaaaay too hot for me to be doing this at 10.30 on a Sunday night with an errant 3 year old that won’t sleep. Don’t feed em! (kids, trolls, gremlins etc)

The Gem 12z builds to a very hot climax on Friday across the SE quarter with 33c 91f and potential for the mid 30's c in the very hottest spots such as Heathrow airport and very warm for many other areas too.?️

Overall we’ve seen for Fri-Sat a move toward S and SE UK seeing a less hot but also much drier outcome, as the Scandinavian High looks just influential enough to stall the Atlantic fronts across northwestern parts but not enough to bring a continental flow except perhaps briefly for the SE. My focus is therefore shifted to the next trough in the Atlantic chain. This has varied a lot in size and intensity between model runs, but overall there’s been a westward adjustment. However, the models have been hesitant to extend the Scandinavian high westward as well - the big heat plume seems to cause convective feedbacks that lead to a lot of very shallow lows that interfere with the ridge development. Now and then, though, we’ve seen a run establish the westward expansion, usually via the inflation of a separate ridge ahead of that second Atlantic trough which then merges with the Scandinavian high. The 18z GFS of yesterday was the best deterministic model example of the past 48 hours, and the 00z ECM of today is not far off. From that westward shift comes the potential for troublesome levels of heat - but this is now far enough away (1st week Aug), meaning enough time for complications within the hot air that may reduce its intensity, that my concern level is, for now at least, slightly lower than it was. ...though undeniably, the heat is quite capable of intensifying in situ before we reach late-August, so the reduced certainty of a severe event is offset somewhat by the increased upper potential limit i.e. just how extreme events could feasibly be. If we avoid the very hot weather, a run of dry, sunny and warm or very warm easterlies is highly feasible, though continental lows may interrupt that from time to time - but that’s arguably the best of both worlds; a lot of fine weather but also some useful rain.

This coming week looks for some to be the hottest of the year, though northern and western areas will be more mixed with some rain at times. GFS I know, but a rough guidance for the level of heat we will see and where the hotspots will be. I will use the arpege here as well for the earlier days of the week. Monday Given we can add a couple of degrees to this I still think 30C is acheivable across a good part of central and eastern England (Even as far north as Leeds perhaps). Very warm elsewhere away from the fronts across the north west (Aberdeenshire could do well from the fohn effect though). 32C looks to be the high across the interior parts of East Anglia which makes sense given a WSW wind, if there is enough strength to the wind then even the coasts of Norfolk and Suffolk could get close to 30C. Tuesday The cold front looks to have moved south east to affect Cumbria and Northumberland, again Yorkshire southwards looks hot though perhaps a degree or so down on Monday though 31C looks possible in similar locations to Monday's high. Rainfall by this point looks to have died out by this point so just more cloud than anything else. Wednesday Pretty similar conditions with the sunniest weather across Central/Southern/Eastern England with the highest temperatures, cooler elsewhere with more cloud and a few showers. The high looks to be around 31C again. Thursday More of the same though divergences do occur between the GFS and others with the GFS more keen to keep hotter air over France away from the UK, As such the GFS wants similar temperatures to Tuesday and Wednesday (31C), though the UKMO and ECM would probably deliver closer to 33C and have the heat spread further north and west. Friday Even the progressive GFS gives a high of 30C which could correspond to around 90F (32C) in reality, again the Euros are further west with the heat with the 16C isotherm grazing the SE corner so possibly getting close to 35C if we can hold a straight southerly feed to pull in the higher 850s from France. So this coming week, average to warm across Scotland (Eastern areas the exception where it could be very warm at times). Northern Ireland will have a similar fate with areas close to the Irish sea potentially seeing better conditions at times. As for England and Wales it will be very warm to hot at times but areas further north and west will be more at risk of a little rain and cooler conditions though exact detail is uncertain given the boundary will be over the UK throughout this week. The south east looks like seeing its hottest week in quite a few years though.

I feel ya Dami! I did see your other post and had to post my agreement on this one. its really hard for me personally to see this summer (so far) for what it is... fantastic. I’m a heat lover, sunbathe as much a poss and usually long for the melting hot days of summer. However, this year I’m currently 7 months pregnant, and have a toddler I can honestly say I have never in my life suffered with the heat like I am now. I walk the eldest 2 to school and back everyday which is a 5 Mile round trip and on a couple of occasions I’ve actually cried where it’s made me feel so ill. I feel miserable most days and stay indoors as much as possible. It’s awful. Thank God they break up on Tuesday. I didn’t understand before how people could moan about lovely sunny weather and heat but now I do. I wake up every morning and come in here to see what’s in store for the day and feel panic creep in when I know it’s going to be another hot one, seriously. So for all those suffering, I feel you! Worryingly, something I have never seen before is happening outside my door. The trees in the park are losing their leaves. I’m guessing this is from lack of water. I’ve never seen this before, it’s July yet looking like Autumn out there. It’s going to be a strange Autumn if there’s hardly any leaves on the ground as they’ve lost them already!

No change in the overall pattern so straight into this morning's detail. Apart from N. Ireland and western Scotland it's been a relatively clear night, apart from the odd mist and fog patches, and this will be the story of the day. Cloud and patchy rain/drizzle over the former whilst the rest of the country, once any mist/fog has quickly cleared, will bask in a very warm and sunny day, and this includes eastern Scotland which may hit 27C (Foehn Effect).You can add two to three degrees to those gfs temps. Overnight and through Monday the cold fronts will move very slowly south east thus more cloud and light patchy rain in N. Ireland, Scotland and northern England which depresses the temps a tad but south of here, apart from far western regions, another sunny and very warm day. A similar scenario on Tuesday with weakening fronts straddling the north still some patchy rain around but again over much of England very warm, locally hot in the south east. Again a similar story on Wednesday but it's worth pausing here to take a look at the bigger picture. And here we find that the offshoot from the vortex, mentioned in previous posts, has phased with the Atlantic trough and formed a new and intense upper low in mid atlantic and the energy swanning around this will put more pressure on the impressive block With this renewed pressure being exerted from the west the split over the UK is trending now more to the west/east with cloudier and cooler ( relatively) conditions pertaining in the former. So the question remains, where do we go from here?

A notable breakdown to cool and wet weather.... C, mon- the ens really do not get any better ... The mean and members jumping the line... Some outragious heat in a few. Once again....things look to be heading to the hottest part of summer thus far.

What complete and utter nonsense! The background signals and the long rangers are all pointing to a continuation of fine weather for the British Isles, CFS for August, need to view these as a probabilistic forecast, so no point looking at one run, but add these four to the ones I posted yesterday:

Indeed - I’m still not ruling out an outcome that sees the trough far enough west and the secondary low moving in such a way that a ridge builds sufficiently strongly ahead of it to prevent so much hot air heading toward Norway and instead direct that across the UK. Far from favoured by current modelling, but feasible based on similar historical events. First week of August has the much higher chance. Odd to see so many EPS members freshening things up instead - but I’ve noticed ECM handling the current eastward propagating MJO very poorly (as usual - it’s worse than GFS when it comes to that!) which makes the difference between a more Nina-like trough movement close to the northwest of the UK (stalled MJO that ECM shows) and a Nino-like stall out west with a continental flow favoured for SE UK in particular (propagating MJO that’s instead being observed). So unless the MJO suddenly falls in line with the ECM/EPS projections, they will soon be changing their tune toward something more like the GFS 06z of today or 18z of yesterday (for example) but with much variability in imported heat, of course.

Glad I’m up north - too hot! Ready for a cool down myself.

Looks to me like we are in limbo but with a lean towards abnormally weak Atlantic due to +GLAAM due to the Pacific pattern. You see here that strong westerlies in the Pacific during April and then followed by an even stronger event during May (this event went through the entire Pacific) created a strongly displaced mid-lattitude high signal. This tropical forcing however has now abated with a fairly benign picture forecast.. Although the background pattern is one of positive GLAAM as Tamara has pointed out (hence why her thoughts are for the trough to remain west and produce a ridge to the east) that is ultimately just a holding in my opinion (though it may hold a good two weeks given that the trade burst only really put the Atlantic in control for a week). If we see a new westerly wind burst push through the Pacific as per April and May/June then it's likely the ridge over Scandinavia will retrogress and we may well see an August to challenge 47 or 95, if however we see another trade burst without much fight to it's west then the holding pattern is probably weak enough that the Atlantic wins and we start running down the clock on summer 18. .. Tonight's GFS18z is messy and humid. The low just sits off Scotland doing enough to keep the plume east but not enough to push the warm air away. A recipe for showers and humidity. Euro at least was quite a bit cleaner..

I think the first test will be to see how successful the predicted push of cooler air is next weekend, to be honest for the far east it potentially looks like being a real struggle. I guess the output in the next 48 hours will reveal all as the models all close in on a consistent solution, if the cooler air gets pushed westwards then we could be closing in on something historic, if it pushes further east then maybe something more moderate might take over in the longer range. Anyway the ECM ens That ridge isn't going anywhere and to be honest is starting to edge slowly westwards in week 2. Warm to hot from NW to SE. Given how this year has panned out so far, I have that feeling that this is only going to go one way from here......

My timescale of interest is still the 3-5 August. So many model runs have this as a major plume fest. It has to be watched. GFS 12z parallel, has this as T300: Just WOW!

I guess whilst we have been thinking more about the conditions over the UK, perhaps we need to look further away to see the real scope of what is going to develop later this week and beyond. The ridge to our east is truly spectacular, unlike some of the patterns we have seen with heights to our east/north east, none of them had such a vast supply of heat being pulled up from north Africa and the Middle east, we will see the 16C isotherm push beyond the north coast of Scandinavia and pushing pretty close to Svalbard. I don't know how often this kind of set up occurs, but this must be pretty rare and the ramifications down the line must be quite big, I guess a case of looking in awe or perhaps worry despite what the conditions are over the UK. As for the ECM, a little bit further east than the UKMO but actually the evolution to day 7 is the same with a thundery low perilously close to the east of the UK over the weekend. Still probably hitting around 33C by the end of this week. ...And yes cooler air does push in over the weekend, though again the caveat here is still above average temperatures (Low twenties north and mid/high twenties south).

GFS 12z is a dry one for most of England and Wales, rainless in the SE to the start of August

The GFS doing the modern thing of compacted all of its hot outliers into one ridiculous low resolution run. Because it is perfectly sensible for the 20C isotherm to reach Scotland!!! Right back to more sensible discussion, again further ahead it looks like any breakdown from the west will struggle to fully cross the UK completely so it isn't unfeasible that southern and eastern areas will remain fine and at least very warm. So we will see a front try and cross the UK during Friday and likely we will see a more widespread fine weekend as a ridge builds across the UK behind this weeks main trough. Beyond this, to be honest I can only see one outcome and as shown on the GFS (in an extreme manner), this outcome is another attempt to push heat northwards from Spain and France with the UK remaining on the boundary between the huge ridge over the continent and the Atlantic trough.

Further to above. Just looking at the Met O Fax charts and their surface positions suggest that the upper trough will remain west of the UK as weakening frontal systems push east. If you look at their upper air charts (below the 120h Fax, you can see they also do keep the marked upper trough west of the UK. Perhaps by then a deep enough feature for it, not the ridge to the east, to be the dominant feature for the UK weather. Possibly just the far SE being in the 'hot' weather? Interesting to see what does happen.

Sunday 22 july Not been around for about 2 weeks but have managed to keep an eye on the anomaly charts. Obviously I agree with the post from mushy above, one of my converts. They are wrong at times but not often but do have to be used with care. Anyway, Ec-gfs both show similar to each other and also to the fri output, and from memory this has shown on a day or so previously? Noaa also similar to ec-gfs and like wise to the fri chart The upshot really is that the overall upper air pattern for 6-10 days is not going to be much different from what these 3 charts show. Minor differences in the positions of ridging and troughing will be all important as to how the surface pattern shows on any one day. Much as is being commented on for the T+96 hour period. The noaa 8-14 is, given its time scale, is less solid about the idea of heat from the south but the centre of gravity of the upper trough may still be far enough west to allow many areas, perhaps the infamous NW-SE split idea being in place into August? http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html As always the detail for the surface will come from the 2x or 4x synoptic outputs, and the T+96 charts may well show sonme corrections over the next 24-48 hours as these models get to grips with the actual position of the trough-ridge system.

to illustrate the accuracy of the noaa 500 mb charts... heres the chart for 8-14 days ahead published on the 15th july. in comparison to the gfs predicted chart for the 26th (mid point at the 8-14 days chart starting on the 15th). after much 'too-ing and fro-ing' the ops are now agreeing with the noaa's. not on just one run, but on all current ones that are unlikely to change much before the 26th. the main feature to note is the predicted position of the mean upper trough in the north atlantic, and outgoing flow over the north coast of norway/scandinavia. pretty much bang on.

Started this thread as im sick of the heat, fed up of melting everytime i move. Feel free to moan away

The start of August isn't looking all that cool or indeed wet

Indeed, some very hot weather for the E /SE on the ukmo 12z..sustained heat during the week ahead in the low 30's celsius range but even away from the hot zone it still looks very warm / feeling hot in the strong July sunshine away from the far w / nw.☺

Hot end to the working week from the UKMO. Where as the GFS shunts the heat away eastward.

So as we await the 12s, the GFS paralell 6z is reinforcing the idea of real heat around the 5th August, my money is still on this date being the hottest of 2018. Records broken? Too soon to tell, but fascinating model watching. Edit, the red beast is still nibbling at the UK at the end of the run what on earth is going on?

Ill take that % at that timeframe lol Ok, im not expecting that to vetify in full, but something similar would be just as welcome . Im liking the potential though.

I personally see the overall trend as we head towards August to be one for the heat over more southern and eastern parts of the UK to spread back to the rest of the British Isles. At the moment August looks to me like seeing a gradual strengthening of High pressure on the whole with more widespread heat as a result. The hottest part of summer I think is yet to come!

feasible !

Pffft.. sporadic at best. I won't get out of bed unless the cloud looks like a permanently illuminated lightbulb with coach wheel-diameter hail

Gfs has mid to high twenties widely throughout the week so still hot but not extreme!!ukmo on the other hand brings that plume back further west again and gets really hot across central.and eastern england on friday!!happy with both outputs to be fair!!

UKMO brings in uppers of 18 @850 into the SE during Friday. Suggestive of temps into the low 30s?

Or how about this?

Yep getting a bit tired of this now considering May was a very warm month on top of June and July, would like a change in August to be honest but I think it will just be more of the same. See Japan suffering from a big heat wave, is there anywhere in the northern hemisphere not well above average?

I get it down the crease in my back running south towards the canyon between the cheeks. 29c out there at present on the Essex Riviera.

I get that too, which is rather worrying

Aug 03rd on GFS 06z reminds me of that very day in 1990 which saw the 37C Cheltenham record. Nice to see ensembles showing more support for a heat wave as we head into Aug. Fingers crossed this upgrades into a 7 day spell instead of a 2/3 day spell.

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean still looks progressive by day 10 with cooler atlantic air making inroads and the warmest / hottest air shunted away eastwards but the week ahead looks hot further s / e / se and may last longer than this mean suggests longer term.

GFS 06z op run brings a real beast of a plume

oh i hope not! i know im clutching at straws here, but flicking between the 6-10, 8-14 day charts would appear to suggest a weakening of the mean upper trough in the north atlantic, plus it shifts further south towards the azores. at the same time a strengthening scandinavian high? naturally, as someone looking for a long hot spell (as opposed to the current mixed bag, as im sat under grey skies when it was supposed to be sunny) id hope future runs to have that mean upper trough as a weak feature over the azores/west of iberia, with a westward shift in the scandinavian high to produce a long southerly/southeasterly flow across the uk. thats what im hoping to see, but its not what id expect - which is little change from the current pattern.

That is the main theme here. Our climate is warming, the warming is man made (no matter what BS, PC, excuses people want to use). Our influence is not going away. That doesn't mean every month i going to be a warm record, but, values approaching and exceeding record highs are going to be much more common. We hardly blink an eye at daily record high values nowadays. How might the reaction be to a daily record low though.... I think we all know, and that in itself says a lot.

Only three 19C months have occurred and all since 1983. The link to solar activity is relatively weak (July 2013 for example was near the peak of our cycle).

Pub run going on a monster plume adventure, here at T336 I think this is the third time in 5 runs the GFS has done this, week after next could be very interesting!

Yes, we are certainly in a transitional period, from home grown heat with an anticyclone over or close to the UK for the last few weeks, but not to Atlantic rubbish, more to a Scandi high situation, with possible plumes from the south interspersed with lows from the Atlantic that never really make it - that's my assessment anyway.

While that maybe disappointing for the ECM, the GFS 12z parallel ends on another planet . Venus maybe! Here T360 and T384, first run I've seen where a high res model has let the red fella roam the land unfettered: What A Plume HEAT! this far out this run has as much chance of verifying as any other, more runs needed, we are so still in the game for a record temperature, though.

I mentioned this yesterday - the meto numbers started out 30c then have gone up 1c daily - now at 34... We are homing in on that 35c Mark..