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Showing most liked content on 22/07/18 in all areas

  1. 6 likes
    What complete and utter nonsense! The background signals and the long rangers are all pointing to a continuation of fine weather for the British Isles, CFS for August, need to view these as a probabilistic forecast, so no point looking at one run, but add these four to the ones I posted yesterday:
  2. 4 likes
    The start of August isn't looking all that cool or indeed wet
  3. 4 likes
    My timescale of interest is still the 3-5 August. So many model runs have this as a major plume fest. It has to be watched. GFS 12z parallel, has this as T300: Just WOW!
  4. 4 likes
    GFS 12z is a dry one for most of England and Wales, rainless in the SE to the start of August
  5. 4 likes
  6. 4 likes
    Sunday 22 july Not been around for about 2 weeks but have managed to keep an eye on the anomaly charts. Obviously I agree with the post from mushy above, one of my converts. They are wrong at times but not often but do have to be used with care. Anyway, Ec-gfs both show similar to each other and also to the fri output, and from memory this has shown on a day or so previously? Noaa also similar to ec-gfs and like wise to the fri chart The upshot really is that the overall upper air pattern for 6-10 days is not going to be much different from what these 3 charts show. Minor differences in the positions of ridging and troughing will be all important as to how the surface pattern shows on any one day. Much as is being commented on for the T+96 hour period. The noaa 8-14 is, given its time scale, is less solid about the idea of heat from the south but the centre of gravity of the upper trough may still be far enough west to allow many areas, perhaps the infamous NW-SE split idea being in place into August? http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html As always the detail for the surface will come from the 2x or 4x synoptic outputs, and the T+96 charts may well show sonme corrections over the next 24-48 hours as these models get to grips with the actual position of the trough-ridge system.
  7. 3 likes
    Yes and those 'background' signals that Tamara eloquently interprets (most of which wooshes over my head ) are conducive to a very warm/hot and humid pattern persisting into August. I'd be interested to see what evidence those folks predicting a cooler and more changeable August actually have - rather than just a preference for said conditions. Slightly fresher charts from late July don't really cut it on that front Makes me wonder where John Hammond is coming from with his bullish twitter posts about a wetter August and a pattern change. Part of me thinks it's attention seeking for his new(ish) blog - a pro forecaster like John needs to do better than just state "it'll change at some point folks" without any evidence to back it up #rantover At least us heat-seekers actually have evidence to back up our weather preferences
  8. 3 likes
    Hot end to the working week from the UKMO. Where as the GFS shunts the heat away eastward.
  9. 3 likes
    A chap that I used to work with back in the 70;s served with the R.E, and had to drive a bulldozer in Belsen covering the mass graves at 20 years of age Mark. My second cousin was killed in Normandy near Caen in 1944 with 4 Bn the Dorsets, aged 20. Conversely I was acquainted not so long ago with a very elderly gentleman who told me that he was a former German P.O.W who had been captured in Normandy at 19 whilst serving with the 10th .SS Panzer Division.
  10. 2 likes
    I think the high retrogressed too far on that occasion. Anyway back on topic. I can't ever remember plumes being modelled so consistently at 10 days or so. The conditions are so right for it to happen, and I think that this week's heat might just be the taster. A bit like in winter sometimes - you get a taste of cold before the real deal arrives.
  11. 2 likes
    You can’t post that you’ll be belittled until the next unfortunate poster mentions ‘cooler conditions’ For what’s is worth I agree with you, Kent, East Anglia night hold on to 23-25c but for most 15-22c Far NW to south coast.
  12. 2 likes
    Check out the 12z gfs ensembles - mental again. The mean gets up to around 15c Into August, with a large number of very hot runs appearing. It could be that this week could be the starter, and into the following week in August we get the main course. A long way off yet, but another 100f day is definitely not off limits. Stav danaos on the beeb today also mentioned things heating up again into August too. Eyes on those models folks.
  13. 2 likes
    Well what a finish to the Ecm 12z..fantastic!..actually it's a predominantly hot run for southern / south eastern areas..this wonderful summer pattern continues!☺very warm, hot, very hot, a bit fresher then hot again sums this run up in a nutshell!!
  14. 2 likes
    Just a natural reaction to abnormal dry weather. Dump excess leaves and it helps tree to go into a semi hibernation. If I have a very luxuriant plant and it is flagging I cut it right back so leaf cover is reduced. It then tends to sprout like mad when it grows on in better condition. In the future if you did a trunk core it may show a smaller growth ring than usual. Must admit it seems strange to have an early Autumn.
  15. 2 likes
    Gfs has mid to high twenties widely throughout the week so still hot but not extreme!!ukmo on the other hand brings that plume back further west again and gets really hot across central.and eastern england on friday!!happy with both outputs to be fair!!
  16. 2 likes
    Yep getting a bit tired of this now considering May was a very warm month on top of June and July, would like a change in August to be honest but I think it will just be more of the same. See Japan suffering from a big heat wave, is there anywhere in the northern hemisphere not well above average?
  17. 2 likes
    I get it down the crease in my back running south towards the canyon between the cheeks. 29c out there at present on the Essex Riviera.
  18. 2 likes
    That is the main theme here. Our climate is warming, the warming is man made (no matter what BS, PC, excuses people want to use). Our influence is not going away. That doesn't mean every month i going to be a warm record, but, values approaching and exceeding record highs are going to be much more common. We hardly blink an eye at daily record high values nowadays. How might the reaction be to a daily record low though.... I think we all know, and that in itself says a lot.
  19. 2 likes
    Yes, we are certainly in a transitional period, from home grown heat with an anticyclone over or close to the UK for the last few weeks, but not to Atlantic rubbish, more to a Scandi high situation, with possible plumes from the south interspersed with lows from the Atlantic that never really make it - that's my assessment anyway.
  20. 2 likes
    http://ww2today.com/18th-september-1942-the-fight-for-the-stalingrad-grain-elevator For me one of the most incredible actions of WW2.
  21. 1 like
    Wash out conditions for august...hmmmm yeah right, not according to the GEFS 12z mean!!☺
  22. 1 like
    General rule of thumb is to add 10 to 15c at sea level but dry soil ,insolation and still conditions can push it much higher
  23. 1 like
    Well the jet was much further south in March as is the amount of oomph in the Atlantic compared to July. I think we'll need quite the push from the Atlantic on a more southerly trajectory to start doing damage.
  24. 1 like
    Fantastic to see Molinari win. He's been just about the best in the world Tee to green for about 5 years, now he's become a "decent enough" putter, he's getting the rewards he deserves. A stalwart of the European Ryder cup team & the Tour.
  25. 1 like
    Can't seem to post anything in mod thread with humour ,maybe captain no sense of humour deleated it ,lol
  26. 1 like
    Can I just mention I don’t think the heat really leaves the south and east at all! Even at the wekeend it still between 25 and 28! That’s still well above average, which is just 22 degrees
  27. 1 like
    One of the books I read a couple of years at ( also by Patrick Bishop was this . It actually mentions everything you have just said above . Great book ranging from lessons learned from WW1 through to aviation improvements etc including using aircraft carriers . Obviously the Bismarck gets quite a big mention also .
  28. 1 like
    People keep showing the GFS, but the parallel is just getting ridiculous. Yes that is the 24c isotherm almost touching the south coast. I think new GIFs may be needed by some..... *Posted here because this is just plain nuts!!! And of course will likely not happen....
  29. 1 like
  30. 1 like
    GFS lala land shows 37C for the south east for the 3rd of August
  31. 1 like
    Follow the cold front with the Hirlam
  32. 1 like
    i like the sun and warmth and the long daylight hours, but wasps and humidity can do one.
  33. 1 like
    well there was a reason I finally saw the error of my ways and 'deleted' that post. people can like what they please, no different than me loving cold and snow, however i wouldn't be jumping for joy if the temps went to the likes of say -15c. let's just say it grates on me to be told 'to stop moaning and enjoy it'
  34. 1 like
    What a dire forecast it was today. Hot sunny spells - really? The Met office forecasts rely too much on computer predictions now rather than actually looking at current conditions. Which has actually reduced the accuracy of the daily forecasts.
  35. 1 like
    Will be a v warm week down here for sure, luckily any v hot stuff is way out in la la land...
  36. 1 like
    Should start spotless again tomorrow
  37. 1 like
    Morning to all! Much better day today here than yesterday... just after 9am, temp here already +23 degrees. Although some suggestions of heavy showers later.
  38. 1 like
    Yes, this wonderful stretch is over. Ironically the solar flux is lower today than it has been for a while.
  39. 1 like
    Those spikes of high 850s later next week are largely gone on the GEFS. Anyone looking for the really hot stuff might have to wait until early August - a significant cluster still brings a plume event to our shores.
  40. 1 like
    Not being rude, but this should be in the appropriate thread, certainly not this one, how many other threads have been derailed...
  41. 1 like
    I think Jordan Spieth will win the Open. Tiger Woods has made a bit of a comeback.
  42. 1 like
    Crikey. I think I'd be running for my bunker with that around. Despite being a storm enthusiast! Great video.
  43. 1 like
    Looks like the ten day period as the Atlantic coming in..?......Enjoy the next ten days with fireworks for some people the breakdown is coming August looks very wet......
  44. 1 like
    Some posts are more suitable to the Summer thread, Please only discuss the Model Outputs in here. Thankyou please continue.
  45. 1 like
    Can't believe they are saying 34c. It's hot enough The point is, it's not me wanting the rain, it's needed.
  46. 1 like
    I do not recall seeing any forecasts that guaranteed thunderstorms, just those that offered up a risk. Admittedly I could not see any risk of storms but there was a thunderstorm near to Wellingborough this evening and so those that said there is a risk were correct. Just goes to show it takes a level of expertise above my own to predict storms in less obvious situations. Well done to all the storm forecasting agencies, storm forecasters and of course the Met Office for a spot on forecast. A slight risk of heavy showers and thunderstorms in a zone from around the Wash/Lincolnshire towards Dorset with the caveat that MOST would miss them. Please use the below thread for complaints about lack of storms or disappointments that storm risks did not yield you an overhead storm:
  47. 1 like
    Running above 07 in percentage, we stand a good chance of breaching the top 20 spotless years.
  48. 1 like
    With Luke being so severely disabled I did often think what reason he would have to choose such a challenge this time around? That said he obviously gave a number of folk reason to contemplate their own situations in comparison to his perceived life experience...... The other thing that always comes up ,especially from atheists it appears? Is a need to restrict all of everything to that explainable by mankind's current level of knowledge? For such a young species to be so up its own A**e as to think it knows enough to say " There is nothing but us" when contemplating higher levels of existence/experience.........? I tend to feel they know only enough to highlight their own ignorance! Personally I struggle with visualising the other place where our gravity leaches out of, and into, our own universe so any notion of closing other potential leech outs into our dimension/universe appears ridiculous! As we push on into ever stranger understandings of our reality it appears we just open up more and more potential for there being far more than is imagined in most folks philosophies? The folk who confidently declare that " there is not" need to have a serious think about what they actually 'know', what it is possible to 'know' and what we might 'know' tomorrow....... Do as thy will but harm no other............
  49. 1 like
  50. 1 like
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