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Showing content with the highest reputation on 22/07/18 in all areas

  1. 8 points
  2. 6 points
    Overall we’ve seen for Fri-Sat a move toward S and SE UK seeing a less hot but also much drier outcome, as the Scandinavian High looks just influential enough to stall the Atlantic fronts across northwestern parts but not enough to bring a continental flow except perhaps briefly for the SE. My focus is therefore shifted to the next trough in the Atlantic chain. This has varied a lot in size and intensity between model runs, but overall there’s been a westward adjustment. However, the models have been hesitant to extend the Scandinavian high westward as well - the big heat plume seems to cause convective feedbacks that lead to a lot of very shallow lows that interfere with the ridge development. Now and then, though, we’ve seen a run establish the westward expansion, usually via the inflation of a separate ridge ahead of that second Atlantic trough which then merges with the Scandinavian high. The 18z GFS of yesterday was the best deterministic model example of the past 48 hours, and the 00z ECM of today is not far off. From that westward shift comes the potential for troublesome levels of heat - but this is now far enough away (1st week Aug), meaning enough time for complications within the hot air that may reduce its intensity, that my concern level is, for now at least, slightly lower than it was. ...though undeniably, the heat is quite capable of intensifying in situ before we reach late-August, so the reduced certainty of a severe event is offset somewhat by the increased upper potential limit i.e. just how extreme events could feasibly be. If we avoid the very hot weather, a run of dry, sunny and warm or very warm easterlies is highly feasible, though continental lows may interrupt that from time to time - but that’s arguably the best of both worlds; a lot of fine weather but also some useful rain.
  3. 6 points
    This coming week looks for some to be the hottest of the year, though northern and western areas will be more mixed with some rain at times. GFS I know, but a rough guidance for the level of heat we will see and where the hotspots will be. I will use the arpege here as well for the earlier days of the week. Monday Given we can add a couple of degrees to this I still think 30C is acheivable across a good part of central and eastern England (Even as far north as Leeds perhaps). Very warm elsewhere away from the fronts across the north west (Aberdeenshire could do well from the fohn effect though). 32C looks to be the high across the interior parts of East Anglia which makes sense given a WSW wind, if there is enough strength to the wind then even the coasts of Norfolk and Suffolk could get close to 30C. Tuesday The cold front looks to have moved south east to affect Cumbria and Northumberland, again Yorkshire southwards looks hot though perhaps a degree or so down on Monday though 31C looks possible in similar locations to Monday's high. Rainfall by this point looks to have died out by this point so just more cloud than anything else. Wednesday Pretty similar conditions with the sunniest weather across Central/Southern/Eastern England with the highest temperatures, cooler elsewhere with more cloud and a few showers. The high looks to be around 31C again. Thursday More of the same though divergences do occur between the GFS and others with the GFS more keen to keep hotter air over France away from the UK, As such the GFS wants similar temperatures to Tuesday and Wednesday (31C), though the UKMO and ECM would probably deliver closer to 33C and have the heat spread further north and west. Friday Even the progressive GFS gives a high of 30C which could correspond to around 90F (32C) in reality, again the Euros are further west with the heat with the 16C isotherm grazing the SE corner so possibly getting close to 35C if we can hold a straight southerly feed to pull in the higher 850s from France. So this coming week, average to warm across Scotland (Eastern areas the exception where it could be very warm at times). Northern Ireland will have a similar fate with areas close to the Irish sea potentially seeing better conditions at times. As for England and Wales it will be very warm to hot at times but areas further north and west will be more at risk of a little rain and cooler conditions though exact detail is uncertain given the boundary will be over the UK throughout this week. The south east looks like seeing its hottest week in quite a few years though.
  4. 6 points
    I feel ya Dami! I did see your other post and had to post my agreement on this one. its really hard for me personally to see this summer (so far) for what it is... fantastic. I’m a heat lover, sunbathe as much a poss and usually long for the melting hot days of summer. However, this year I’m currently 7 months pregnant, and have a toddler I can honestly say I have never in my life suffered with the heat like I am now. I walk the eldest 2 to school and back everyday which is a 5 Mile round trip and on a couple of occasions I’ve actually cried where it’s made me feel so ill. I feel miserable most days and stay indoors as much as possible. It’s awful. Thank God they break up on Tuesday. I didn’t understand before how people could moan about lovely sunny weather and heat but now I do. I wake up every morning and come in here to see what’s in store for the day and feel panic creep in when I know it’s going to be another hot one, seriously. So for all those suffering, I feel you! Worryingly, something I have never seen before is happening outside my door. The trees in the park are losing their leaves. I’m guessing this is from lack of water. I’ve never seen this before, it’s July yet looking like Autumn out there. It’s going to be a strange Autumn if there’s hardly any leaves on the ground as they’ve lost them already!
  5. 6 points
    No change in the overall pattern so straight into this morning's detail. Apart from N. Ireland and western Scotland it's been a relatively clear night, apart from the odd mist and fog patches, and this will be the story of the day. Cloud and patchy rain/drizzle over the former whilst the rest of the country, once any mist/fog has quickly cleared, will bask in a very warm and sunny day, and this includes eastern Scotland which may hit 27C (Foehn Effect).You can add two to three degrees to those gfs temps. Overnight and through Monday the cold fronts will move very slowly south east thus more cloud and light patchy rain in N. Ireland, Scotland and northern England which depresses the temps a tad but south of here, apart from far western regions, another sunny and very warm day. A similar scenario on Tuesday with weakening fronts straddling the north still some patchy rain around but again over much of England very warm, locally hot in the south east. Again a similar story on Wednesday but it's worth pausing here to take a look at the bigger picture. And here we find that the offshoot from the vortex, mentioned in previous posts, has phased with the Atlantic trough and formed a new and intense upper low in mid atlantic and the energy swanning around this will put more pressure on the impressive block With this renewed pressure being exerted from the west the split over the UK is trending now more to the west/east with cloudier and cooler ( relatively) conditions pertaining in the former. So the question remains, where do we go from here?
  6. 5 points
    Indeed - I’m still not ruling out an outcome that sees the trough far enough west and the secondary low moving in such a way that a ridge builds sufficiently strongly ahead of it to prevent so much hot air heading toward Norway and instead direct that across the UK. Far from favoured by current modelling, but feasible based on similar historical events. First week of August has the much higher chance. Odd to see so many EPS members freshening things up instead - but I’ve noticed ECM handling the current eastward propagating MJO very poorly (as usual - it’s worse than GFS when it comes to that!) which makes the difference between a more Nina-like trough movement close to the northwest of the UK (stalled MJO that ECM shows) and a Nino-like stall out west with a continental flow favoured for SE UK in particular (propagating MJO that’s instead being observed). So unless the MJO suddenly falls in line with the ECM/EPS projections, they will soon be changing their tune toward something more like the GFS 06z of today or 18z of yesterday (for example) but with much variability in imported heat, of course.
  7. 5 points
    Glad I’m up north - too hot! Ready for a cool down myself.
  8. 5 points
    Looks to me like we are in limbo but with a lean towards abnormally weak Atlantic due to +GLAAM due to the Pacific pattern. You see here that strong westerlies in the Pacific during April and then followed by an even stronger event during May (this event went through the entire Pacific) created a strongly displaced mid-lattitude high signal. This tropical forcing however has now abated with a fairly benign picture forecast.. Although the background pattern is one of positive GLAAM as Tamara has pointed out (hence why her thoughts are for the trough to remain west and produce a ridge to the east) that is ultimately just a holding in my opinion (though it may hold a good two weeks given that the trade burst only really put the Atlantic in control for a week). If we see a new westerly wind burst push through the Pacific as per April and May/June then it's likely the ridge over Scandinavia will retrogress and we may well see an August to challenge 47 or 95, if however we see another trade burst without much fight to it's west then the holding pattern is probably weak enough that the Atlantic wins and we start running down the clock on summer 18. .. Tonight's GFS18z is messy and humid. The low just sits off Scotland doing enough to keep the plume east but not enough to push the warm air away. A recipe for showers and humidity. Euro at least was quite a bit cleaner..
  9. 4 points
    The GFS doing the modern thing of compacted all of its hot outliers into one ridiculous low resolution run. Because it is perfectly sensible for the 20C isotherm to reach Scotland!!! Right back to more sensible discussion, again further ahead it looks like any breakdown from the west will struggle to fully cross the UK completely so it isn't unfeasible that southern and eastern areas will remain fine and at least very warm. So we will see a front try and cross the UK during Friday and likely we will see a more widespread fine weekend as a ridge builds across the UK behind this weeks main trough. Beyond this, to be honest I can only see one outcome and as shown on the GFS (in an extreme manner), this outcome is another attempt to push heat northwards from Spain and France with the UK remaining on the boundary between the huge ridge over the continent and the Atlantic trough.
  10. 4 points
  11. 4 points
    Further to above. Just looking at the Met O Fax charts and their surface positions suggest that the upper trough will remain west of the UK as weakening frontal systems push east. If you look at their upper air charts (below the 120h Fax, you can see they also do keep the marked upper trough west of the UK. Perhaps by then a deep enough feature for it, not the ridge to the east, to be the dominant feature for the UK weather. Possibly just the far SE being in the 'hot' weather? Interesting to see what does happen.
  12. 4 points
    Sunday 22 july Not been around for about 2 weeks but have managed to keep an eye on the anomaly charts. Obviously I agree with the post from mushy above, one of my converts. They are wrong at times but not often but do have to be used with care. Anyway, Ec-gfs both show similar to each other and also to the fri output, and from memory this has shown on a day or so previously? Noaa also similar to ec-gfs and like wise to the fri chart The upshot really is that the overall upper air pattern for 6-10 days is not going to be much different from what these 3 charts show. Minor differences in the positions of ridging and troughing will be all important as to how the surface pattern shows on any one day. Much as is being commented on for the T+96 hour period. The noaa 8-14 is, given its time scale, is less solid about the idea of heat from the south but the centre of gravity of the upper trough may still be far enough west to allow many areas, perhaps the infamous NW-SE split idea being in place into August? http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html As always the detail for the surface will come from the 2x or 4x synoptic outputs, and the T+96 charts may well show sonme corrections over the next 24-48 hours as these models get to grips with the actual position of the trough-ridge system.
  13. 4 points
    to illustrate the accuracy of the noaa 500 mb charts... heres the chart for 8-14 days ahead published on the 15th july. in comparison to the gfs predicted chart for the 26th (mid point at the 8-14 days chart starting on the 15th). after much 'too-ing and fro-ing' the ops are now agreeing with the noaa's. not on just one run, but on all current ones that are unlikely to change much before the 26th. the main feature to note is the predicted position of the mean upper trough in the north atlantic, and outgoing flow over the north coast of norway/scandinavia. pretty much bang on.
  14. 3 points
    Betty Swallocks?
  15. 3 points
    So as we await the 12s, the GFS paralell 6z is reinforcing the idea of real heat around the 5th August, my money is still on this date being the hottest of 2018. Records broken? Too soon to tell, but fascinating model watching. Edit, the red beast is still nibbling at the UK at the end of the run what on earth is going on?
  16. 3 points
    Ill take that % at that timeframe lol Ok, im not expecting that to vetify in full, but something similar would be just as welcome . Im liking the potential though.
  17. 3 points
    I personally see the overall trend as we head towards August to be one for the heat over more southern and eastern parts of the UK to spread back to the rest of the British Isles. At the moment August looks to me like seeing a gradual strengthening of High pressure on the whole with more widespread heat as a result. The hottest part of summer I think is yet to come!
  18. 3 points
    GFS 06z op run brings a real beast of a plume
  19. 3 points
    Pffft.. sporadic at best. I won't get out of bed unless the cloud looks like a permanently illuminated lightbulb with coach wheel-diameter hail
  20. 2 points
  21. 2 points
    Aug 03rd on GFS 06z reminds me of that very day in 1990 which saw the 37C Cheltenham record. Nice to see ensembles showing more support for a heat wave as we head into Aug. Fingers crossed this upgrades into a 7 day spell instead of a 2/3 day spell.
  22. 2 points
    Yes, we are certainly in a transitional period, from home grown heat with an anticyclone over or close to the UK for the last few weeks, but not to Atlantic rubbish, more to a Scandi high situation, with possible plumes from the south interspersed with lows from the Atlantic that never really make it - that's my assessment anyway.
  23. 2 points
    Based on one ECM run in deep FI then yes. No real sign of the Atlantic waking up as such. Low pressure threatening western and some central parts but much to be determined in terms of track and strength of both the low and the blocking high. I feel we won't know the extent of any thunderstorm or heat coverage until early next week at the earliest - still a lot of differences with each run across the models. Difficult to call beyond 5-6 days let alone the whole of August. I'll put my faith and attention into the longer-term MetO outlook. Once they suggest a return to Atlantic dominance I might take notice. Until then I suggest you enjoy the ride and not let one run lead you astray!
  24. 2 points
    Did you know that Jeremy Corbyn, Boris Johnson, Nigel Farage and Nick Clegg have all allegedly turned down the chance to appear in a new TV show called Would I tell The Truth to You? due to 'lack of experience'?
  25. 2 points
    I mentioned this yesterday - the meto numbers started out 30c then have gone up 1c daily - now at 34... We are homing in on that 35c Mark..
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