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Ive just flicked through some of gefs and if they verified the uk could see some records been smashed. Very hot and slack some of those members and very feasible imo. Oh dear this breakdown is really turning into nothing and been overshadowed by remerging high pressue. Ill stick this here

Small farmer here of 185 acres drives 93000mile Volvo V50 estate.We are actually feeding cattle just now outside in summer due to the lack of grass growth and a 7 inch soil moisture deficit. These dry conditions are prevalent across a wide area of the main crop growing areas of the world.Prices will almost certainly rise this autumn for a lot of staple foods despite the best attempts of the supermarkets to hold them down. This world wide dry weather will end up costing everyone.

The Ecm just gets better and better, what a magical 12z run this turns into..even better than the 00z and back into the glorious weather we have now..what a summer this is..and much, much more to come!?️..a summer that keeps on giving and that I'm delighted to keep taking!

12s rolling and it's good news re wobblegate! ICON at T180, GFS at T192, and GEM a little later at T222 all show the ridge inexorably moving back in after the brief less settled spell. Was it ever in doubt? Charts: what the ECM saw yesterday, the others see today. Edit: actually the 12s aren't good, they are awesome compared to recent output

Weird how you think the noaa anomaly charts are magically exempt from being wrong. It is nowhere near certain that we will see troughing for two weeks.

Well..I liked the Gfs 6z but I like the 12z even more..hope it's right about this!☺

06z GFS builds in link up between Azores and Scandi HP from day 8-9, then does the usual GFS trick of blasting it away as soon as it gets into low res. So more good signs in my opinion for the unsettled spell to be a small blip.

00Z GEM shows high pressure still close to our shores any rain we see next week may not last that long before the heat re-builds

The injection of Chris into the n Atlantic basin has certainly provided us with some nwp entertainment - something to bear in mind once the next we’ll developed ex TD arrives on the scene ............

Your room is booked at the funny farm cheese,could be i long stay i suspect

Paying attention to Tamarras posts has kept me nicely relaxed these last two weeks.

Further copy and paste extracts. Its a pity that so much emphasis is put on NWP when it comes to trying to untangle (the difficult) task of how patterns may unfold ahead. It matters not how many times this is stated (e.g as above) - face value verification assumptions of operational, ensemble and cluster data each 6/12/24 hrs will continue regardless. *Before she gets lynched* This is not to say that attempting interpretations of these are wrong however, its part and parcel of rightful and relevant discussion after all Its just the 100% reliance on numerical models alone, that causes intra day reflex reactions which can be avoided by stepping back a little and letting the modelling make sense of uncertain signals. If necessary this may mean a few days (or more) quiet observation rather than instant reaction and comment to each and every model spasm. So be it, if that is what it takes. To that end, I wouldn't change any of the above extracts expressed three days back with respect to the outlook. Part of the problem is that such exceptional weather sustaining for so long inevitably leads to excessive overstatement of when and how such a pattern relaxes (as it surely does sooner or later) and leads to the type of disjointed, more changeable and messy sequences that are coming closer under the radar (but have been anticipated for some time now anyway). What happens is that such change is then over extrapolated too far ahead and taken out of proper perspective. Some of that is natural bias and hope driven - such is the nature of a thread and site like this. But some of it also simply stems from forgetting that the signals actually drive the models - and not the other way around From the non NWP aspect I (try) to come from, it can be the case that those signals can carry great uncertainty in the medium term, even if the longer term signal remains intact. This is one of those occasions - and where the models are focussed on current signals that conflict with the longer term trend. Indeed timing of how this resolves is difficult at the moment - but sooner or later something will have to give. I'm very deliberately witholding any further linked analysis about this, as it will be largely overlooked in favour of continued intra day scrutiny of the ups and downs of each and every NWP output. But suffice to say in broad terms the end game remains one at present in my opinion of the backing of the trough into the Atlantic and a broader east/west split in the pattern which, at present, looks unsustainably too far east with the trough ad infinitum. Some of the suggestions of this trough sustaining infinitum of course are part of the bias hope - and that belief that the models control the signals. But interestingly, set against the knee jerks of the 10 to 15 day period - whilst its not yet properly defined, the ECM clusters in the extended range still show attempts towards that sort of east/west defined evolution - it just remains the case that timing of this is not clear. However, heading into August (a big "if" this rather zoneless drop of pressure pattern persists that long) and set against further changing seasonal wavelength, the need for something to give and provide more confidence in shape and detail will surely arrive. It indeed might well not be a totally settled ultimate destination, but its one that remains, at least as I see it, distinctly above average temperature wise and in this context think some of the over dramatized statements about the coming few weeks let alone the rest of the summer, need to be given better perspective than they are - set against such an extra-ordinary summer so far.

Just got back from hols. Don’t think that there has been very much rain here judging by the front lawn?

Lovely day. 80:20 mix of cloud/sunshine during the day but nice and warm with max of 21C. Light winds again and skies clearing quickly this evening. Local rookery this evening making one heck of a racket though its impressive seeing them all moving as a single entity (noise of the wings when they turn is quite haunting). They call this a murmuration for starlings but not sure if you can do the same for rooks.

Even ECM has now adjusted it's extra diving low such that it's only a glancing blow rather than a direct hit on the UK. Generally, the trend is toward increased SLP Fri-Sun. That's a good starting point from which to build a more 'plume-flavoured' second half to the summer. As odd as the GFS 12z looks in lower-res with the unusual Scandinavian high positioning, the overall principle of a big area of very warm air enveloping NW. Europe and the UK and the Atlantic struggling to achieve much more than give rise to occasional thundery intrusions is very sound when considering the background signals that Tamara has often discussed in her excellent updates. With this in mind, I'm wondering how much rain will actually be seen in the S and SE from the more changeable spell when all's said and done. Some have already seen a fair bit, but many hardly anything, and the ARPEGE 12z out to next Wednesday evening doesn't indicate much more to come; ...leaving us reliant once again on heavy, slow-moving downpour potential next Thu-Fri (which ECM actually avoids in favour of more mobile showers via that stronger low brushing past the NE; more of a flow across the UK). For the record, the changeable spell has so far delivered to me 0.2 mm of rain, and today was sunny from dawn until dusk!

Here are the ensembles for nearer your location- a lot more rainfall spikes evident I've been looking at the longer range today. To me it looks like next weekend may be a flash in the pan for more northern areas with a more NW/SE divide appearing thereafter as the PFJ sinks further S. Regardless, the background pattern is now slowly shifting, this may be in fits and starts at present but it is evident that ridging from the SW is having a tougher and tougher time becoming as dominant than it has done over the past couple of months.

I like the Gfs 6z operational, next week looks warm with sunshine and showers, some heavy and thundery, friday there could be some very thundery weather with heavy rain but then the azores ridge builds in which gradually kills the showers with increasingly fine warmer weather returning, especially further s / e..this is followed by a brief unsettled blip before things improve again, indeed the end of the run looks interesting, a few tweaks and we would tap into serious continental heat..incidentally, the extended met office update has improved today, there is more chance of hot weather returning, at least to southern uk through late july and the first half of august!!☺

I think this looks now like a week long wobble at worst, and even during the wobble, if you dodge showers it will still be pretty warm (caveat that for those much further north). Worst take on GFS 6z T144: Should bring some much need rain, but like recent ECM runs, brings the ridge back in towards T240, no need to look beyond that at the moment GEM 0z supports the re-ridging as well

Manchester Summer Indices 1976 301 1995 298 1983 278 1955 277 2018 276 (up to 13th July) 1911 274 1984 271 1959 269 1975 268 1949 267 1989 262 2013 260 1947 255 1933 251 If the rest of the summer starting from today recorded zero sunshine, a mean maximum of 15.0C and rain everyday, the index would drop to 173, which would still be above summers 2012 and 2008.

Yes, come on England! Oups, sorry I got carried away...

Nearing half way mark, and it already looks likes being one of the warmest July's on record, but I now doubt it will break the record of 2006. CET region will stay very warm for the foreseeable but not exceptionally so, it may be the minima which holds it up, with maxima dropping closer to nearer normal levels. A finish at least 2 degrees above norm looks an almost cert, possibly high 18s finishing mark would be a good bet. Its been quite a unusual year so far CET wise, Feb and then March being colder than normal, since then a run of very warm months. All down to that SSW I feel..

Backing up Tamara's recent postings... I have taken the recent model output beyond seven days, showing the troughing, with a warehouse of salt for that reason. In fact, I don't take any big pattern change seriously unless it is showing consistently, and getting closer with each run instead of staying 10 days out like a mirage.

They arent. I have never said they are. But a detailed study of them from an experienced met man has shown them to be the most accurate model suite for that timeframe. Ive checked this claim out and found it to be true. Id suggest you do the same thing because itll save false hope the ops do repeatedly. Of course its not certain that we will be trough dominated for the next two weeks, thats what 'prediction' is all about. But you need realism, not hope casting. All to often on here a certain model becomes 'the' model because its showing what someone wants to see. I want heat.... but the most accurate suite doesnt give much hope of that, other then transitory 48 hour spells. So ill be very happy for the current output to be wrong.

ECM holding firm at T192: It is the coming week that is the blip not what follows. The predicted increase in AAM is still there over the next few weeks, should act to enforce rather than weaken the pattern. As always, we'll see.

This is what has happened in the past after long dry spells in late June and early Julyr: I looked at daily rainfall for the EWP, and searched out all cases of 5 mm or less total rainfall in any 15-day interval ending in late June (28-30) or July 1-15. Then I looked at rainfall in the 30 days after the dry period ended. Most of these candidate dry intervals had an absolute dry spell within them, and 5 mm in 15 days nets a few borderline cases. The daily data began in 1931. YEAR ___ Dry interval ____ Total rain next 30 d ___ Heaviest 24h rainfall 1949 ____ 8 Jun - 12 Jul ___ 83 mm ______________ 13.9 mm 01 Aug 1975 ____18 Jun - 6 Jul ____ 63 mm ______________ 8.6 mm 07 July 1976 ____20 Jun - 11 Jul ___ 26 mm ______________ 10.9 mm 15 July 1995 ____ 12 Jun - 1 Jul ___ 39 mm _______________ 6.3 mm 14 July These years often reverted to drought after this barely normal (or for 1976, 1995 subnormal July and early August rainfall). The 1949 case shows how much of a pattern change is possible.

For summer lovers.......hope..... ...for summer haters.....a warning...... Chart for 25th July 2003 Chart for 31st July 1984 Chart for 14th July 1995 Chart for 13th July 1976 Chart for 15th July 1975 Chart for 12th July 1959 Chart for 14th July 1933 Chart for 30th July 1911

Yes, an acquaintance who lives in Glen Esk told me recently that he had found a "nest" of adders, presumably hatchlings, in the stone dyke which bounds his garden. A pleasant 23C in the Finzean area this morning with hazy sunshine.

Does it realy matter what some farmers have got, Or have not got, Or anyone els for that matter? Or where members have been or not been..This is the model ramp moan thread..

Thought I’d look at the warmest two-week spells in the record. The 26th June to 9th July this year is provisionally 19.7°C, which puts 2018 in 20th place. For context, 25th June to 8th July 1976, the hottest two-week spell on record, averaged 22.8°C. What’s notable, and perhaps not surprising, is that 10 of the top 20 years* have occurred since 1975 (you can probably guess which years since then make the list). * This assumes that the provisional data for 2018 are correct.

19.6 to the 13th 3.7 above the 61 to 90 average 3.3 above the 81 to 10 average _______________________________________ Current high this month 20.9 to the 2nd Current low this month 19.6 to the 4th & 13th

not sure what youre getting at here... troughing has been expected by early next week since at least last saturday (when i got back from dubai and started viewing the models again). so imho its not at 'ten days like a mirage' . the only question really is 'how deep the troughing will be' , and thats still to be resolved but its not looking like itll be very deep. but the current heatwave pattern of ridging extending across the uk and heading eastwards off the azores high, IS ending, for now at least. the noaa anomaly charts have progged this consistently, and troughing remains the mean expected upper pattern for the next 2 weeks, or should i say 'shallow troughing'. so maybe not a 'big' pattern change, and indeed its not looking bad with decent temps/sunny periods/showers but theres certainly a relaxation of the higher pressure and higher temps.

I can't see any real pattern change, less settled come next week for a few days and then back to square 1. The Atlantic is just not showing any true influence and expect the jet (what there is of one) to head back north in a weeks time approximately. So that's me spending 1/2 an hour still watering the flowers every evening.

Sunny Sheffield on 19.3C would have been a bigger drop but for the late afternoon sunshine. Anyway +4C above normal. Finally had some measurable rainfall so 4.4mm 7.7% of the monthly average.

This evening is probably going to be the first and only evening so far this summer when an evening meal outside has been possible - it's always been chilly by 6pm and windy (let's guess the wind direction...)

Mart report from yesterdays cattle sale at Thainstone Inverurie.Currently windy and 18c "Lack of grass due to the prolonged dry spell,brought a sharp increase in numbers forward at yesterday’s sale.Prices fell sharply as a result of buyers concerns about the rising cost of fodder and the diversion of valuable animal feed into AD plants"

My local rookeries have not started this carry-on ....yet. Usually they begin flocking late summer at dusk, but overall this has been an unusual weather year! A pleasant morning with some high cloud, a gentle SW breeze and a temp around 16C at the mo. No sign of rain at present and so I'm off shortly to take doggie for a swim in the R. Feugh while the benign conditions prevail.

17 day's spotless, 104th spotless day for 2018, equal with 2017. Solar flux 71

ECM 00Z is its third successive run with a new build of heights to the UK between 21st and 23rd July. It isn't completely supported by its clusters from last night but you can see how it is not likely to be far off, for the south at very least (maybe for all) All clusters have some sort of ridging but the success of the ridging depends on how quickly the first trough vacate and how developed the next one is. One can't be certain how this will end up yet, regardless of the consistency of the op. D11-D15 in the clusters were a genuine split between ridge or trough dominated scenarios so no strong guidance from the ECM ensembles just at the moment - maybe we get a clearer picture from the 00z suite?

The Ecm 00z hots up again towards the end of the run..so, a hot start, warm middle and another hot finish?️?️

Most farmers I know are moaning miserable sods who plead poverty then buy 60 grand land rovers , no rain ,to much rain ,lol

Yes mike hope this trend continues and that these glorious conditions return again. Next week doesn't even look bad actually, warm with sunshine and showers..I can think of much worse summer weather than that!☺

Yes, Karl, I strongly agree that the ECM mean is heading in the right direction, with the 1015 line moving further into the UK rather than away over the last few frames. Meanwhile, strong support from the FIM9 12z similar to ECM op run from earlier: At this stage it is just a signal, but most definitely one to watch on the runs of the next day or two.

I actually think tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean ends on an encouraging note with pressure slowly rising☺...in the meantime, if you love heat there's plenty of it through this weekend further s / e / se..much less risk of a shower, plenty of sunshine and light winds, sunday could reach 31c in the SE and 29c on monday!?️

Heavy rain all around us today - South Lanarks, other parts of the western Borders got a pasting. Went to Biggar and the B Road flooded in parts. Ten minutes drizzle at home. Hosepipe oot! Leeks coming on...

ECM 12z brings summer 2018 back! T216 and T240: first sign of a new signal, that's all we can take from it at the moment, but if this shows on tomorrow's runs then for a bit longer this summer!

I think maybe the models are struggling to deal with end result here. Which in my opinion will be trough to west of uk and ridge building up from the south. Gfs 12z does this, its not a clean scenario, but i think once the models have a firmer understanding of chris, i think we will see more cleaner runs develop delivering another decent spell of weather after the blip if you can call it that

Trace amounts from a couple of light showers on 16 and 17 June, otherwise absolutely no rain since 3 June here, and the heavy showers have been all around us but no rain here today. So less than 1mm in 40 days and absolutely nothing in 27 days here.

Totally agree mate. I have noticed a slight drop in indoor temps over the past 24 hours as well, every little helps!

Beautiful morning cool at 10c with a steady wetting drizzle. Turnips and cattle smiling at me .

No grazing grass left for cattle fields brown except for deep rooted clover going to start feeding them hay today.,watering garden last night,wheat futures jumped £5/tonne yesterday, yes everything is going to be in short supply. Supermarkets are going to have to work with a new mindset. At a field trial with my agronomist yesterday near Buckie on heavier ground 1"cracks in fields but they are greener than we are so far. Farms that are still mixed with livestock (Dung) and grass breaks are faring best in this weather than ones with continuous cereals. Currently clear blue skies , 25% RH and 14c so the drying process goes on