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I've seen this before. Expect the warm/very warm weather to continue to around 19th July. Then it all slips back into a more Atlantic driven pattern with plenty of rain to alleviate any concerns that may have arisen by then about water shortages. This is all part of a well known pattern of weather that often occurs over the UK in the summer. It's known as " It Was Nice Until The Kids Broke Up For School"

Looking at ECM ensembles for T96 (Monday midnight) - although the UK remains on the warm side on all ensembles, it's a total mess regarding that low to the SW. Some develop it a lot, some little - some give it active fronts, some just a peppering of showers. Some get the showers into the SW by this stage though I think they are in the minority. The point being that Tuesday-Thursday cannot be resolved until the formation of this low is resolved. I know many will want the low to stay SW and shallow but I have to be honest, my garden is really cheering on that low now. Especially after I showed it last night's clusters, which seem keener than ever on another bout of high pressure for D10-D15: and for the umpteenth time, the ensemble mean for uppers does not drop below 10C in England/Wales from T0 right out to T360, which is just mental. The London ensembles diagram shows the heat well - 15 days averaging above 25C (and from experience we know this really means 27C-28C). This is not normal!!

It's similar to what usually happens in wintertime...there's almost no 'cold' air to tap into? Long may it continue!

A great post as ever Tamara - as I come out of hibernation long enough to blow my nose for the zillionth time this last month, search for a cool patch anywhere in the house, and pray that rain might come to save the garden. Ugh. I make no secret of my utter loathing of hot summer weather. In my book, if you want it hot go to Greece. Anyway - why my first post in a long while? Well - aside from the fatigue of a long winter season on NW crowned with the excitement of March I have also been watching the pacific on and off through Spring, wondering just how the engine room of the planetary weather systems might view summer 2018 with knock on effects into the winter. MetO forecast now is fairly bullish as to a move towards El, Nino Region 3.4 emerging round about now from neutral to slight positive, with a gentle gathering up towards +1 by the time we hit mid autumn. As Tamara states - if we are to get a coupling of the ocean base state with the atmosphere which has retained a Nina blueprint for a long time now then we absolutely must see a significant rise in GLAAM. It cant happen any other way. ECM MJO forecasts clearly show the spaghetti heading towards a phase 5 orbit as the MJO hits the pacific and JMA's July MJO composites clearly show the strong atlantic ridge supported by this evolution through phases 5 and 6, assuming this MJO gets out of the COD So - will we get a Nino orbit as potentially suggested above? Knife edge. I am uncertain that a very neutral ENSO appearance through most of July is going to bring that ocean/atmosphere coupling into a Nino phase quite yet - Schraldi plots with their well known low AAM bias are unexciting and unless the Nino grows in strength faster than either the Met or the CPC are expecting then any impact looks to me to be towards the end of summer and into autumn. If that is the case then one would expect the pacific to reamplify via an unimpressive MJO phase with the likely result of the UK ridge replaced with some kind of UK trough. However the water in the equatorial pacific is warm from west into centre (Nino 4 through to Nino 3) suggesting the MJO could possibly grow through phases 5/6/7/8... and it is not beyond the bounds of possibility therefore that July sees a tropical surge with consequent impacts in the sub tropics, namely suppression of the pacific ridge with consequent downstream impacts that might see the Euro warm spell continue. After all... look what happened in February. No polar vortex to worry about in these summer situations. Less complex.... but still complex enough to ensure that long range weather forecasting is fraught with difficulty. Where Tamara is spot on in my opinion is that the evolution of conditions in the pacific through the first fortnight in July is likely to dictate the course of the rest of the summer. Meanwhile my T shirt is now sticking to my back and the only solution to this misery is another cold shower. Hooray.....

Longer term signals continue to look very good for a continuation of very summery weather well into July on the Ecm 00z ensemble mean with strong azores high / ridge influence returning which is also the case with the Gefs 00z mean..very encouraging

Taking a snap shot of the GFS 06z at 240. Really following the script of the 0z ensemble mean. Upper trough regrouping mid Atlantic with a downstream ridge rebuilding in our vicinity. A high pressure dominated outlook.

ECM 00Z clusters - the op run is in the smallest cluster at T96 - though due to short lead time in needs to be given extra weight. The low still only brushing the SW on most clusters by T144 Longer term, still looking good for a renewed push of high pressure between D8 and D13. Uppers above 10C for most throughout all 15 days, again.

I am actually lost for words with the 12z runs so far!!the heatwave goes on and on forever lol!!ukmo and gfs are belters with high pressure slap bang over and to the east of the uk!!

Very little rain, probably zilch for most, early next week at least, hints of thundery showers mid-week onwards pushing N and NE across England and Wales on both 00z GFS and 00z ECMWF, as an upper trough lifts northeast, though the way the models have been depicting the blocking high squeezing the life out of any attempts to breakdown from the SW, confidence in this for me is not too high for now, given models have back-tracked on thundery showers for the south Sunday into Monday to limit to the far SW of England now. Medium range - 00z GFS seems keen to strengthen the upper westerlies towards the UK, bringing a more mobile flow off the Atlantic, however, ECMWF and GEFS mean suggest ridging may rebuild from the SW. So perhaps a heatwave reload in early July?

Ecm 12z looking very good next week too, blocking high to the NE the dominant feature and the uk bathed in warm / very warm air..more of the same as we have now..i.e..predominantly fine with plenty of hot sunshine and probably a more humid feel and the risk of a few T-Storms for a time, especially for the sw / w but then another surge from the azores high towards the end of next week..looks great. ?️

Another fantastic day ,can only hope it stays till October

ECM clusters are a total mess at shorter range this morning: Different depths and positions of the Biscay low meaning we're not really sure what we're going to get. Here's something you don't see too often, especially at 192+ hours! 100% agreement on a ridge to the NE, no low pressure infringements. No change out at day 10-12 either, staying settled with no rainfall in the offing. Even day 15 still has a strong ridge - no other options, amazing really. Not even a tiny cluster of low pressure scenarios, just variations on a theme - high pressure all the way. Summer 2018 could go into the hall of fame at this rate.

Another fantastic GEFS 00z mean with plenty of high pressure / strong azores ridging and for southern uk especially..high temperatures..well into July it's currently looking very good

Are you some sort of troll?? ECM day 10 - high pressure building GEM day 10 - high pressure building Literally none of the models are pushing a return to a long unsettled regime.

Not for me Ed, the rain can stay away until 0ctober

I'm thankful that tomorrow will be cooler. That was like a sauna unleashed in a big way out there today (PHEW)! Really does not look like any rain going to brew up anytime soon. Been the most....................probably memorable 6 months weatherwise I can ever remember (and I remember the 2nd half of 1995 inparticulair very well)

UKMO T144 is just awesome I would like to see where that run goes for there, GEM ends well too Summer 18 - we'll be talking about it for decades!

26c here now Far to hot for me. I really am a snow loving person!!!! Going to row up some hay this afternoon in an air conditioned tractor set at 5c Ho Ho Ho ! Just a grumpy old farmer today.

GFS 6z reduces any breakdown to a brief period in a pressure no man's land at T168, before building in the ridge again, here at T240. Lovely!

EC mean is absolutely tremendous for warm lovers- if anything the azores anticyclone is building again towards day 10 with very little rain expected and even beyond day 10 little sign of anything Atlantic driven near the UK. Of course things can change in the 6-10 day period so nothing cast in stone but as it stands its looking really good.

Quick update before my early morning run!!ukmo and gfs and arpege all the same this morning!!biscay low further soouth again and heatwave continues well into next week!!over to you mr ecm..

ECM 12z ensemble mean still rock solid on building the ridge back in, here T240: and runners up in Group G is probably better for England!

Agreed. It's not a good outlook for arable farmers. Things are starting to look pretty desperate. I do love the sunshine but everything is starting to look jaded, we could really do with a day or two of rain.

ECM 12z whizzes past the slightly unstable middle period, and then it's a hugely strong ridge, T216 and T240:

The way that low goes under the block is a little unconvincing - UKMO looks like it will either track SE or N instead. Even so, it's just two days (Thurs/Fri next week) which look more showery on the GFS before we're back to settled weather. Warmth never goes.

More of a ridge across N parts on Sunday. More of a ridge generally across the UK on Monday. Next week starting to look a lot like this week. Currently with instability a bit closer to the south but this run sees the showers restricted to Cornwall & Devon. Temps in the south are still into the high 20s each day as of Wednesday 4th. No breaks in there at all - truly spectacular in that sense at least. UKMO 12z (left) and GFS 12z (right) for +144 hours. UKMO's a little further N with the high but the broad area of nothing much from the previous run has gone. By 7:30 this evening we'll know whether ECM has dropped that idea too. Not very sure how the UKMO run would progress from there, but the N. Atlantic pattern has totally stagnated so the low out west could drift around there for quite some time. GFS has suddenly developed a low from the S for next Saturday, but it has minimal support from the jet pattern so it might just be the convective feedback error being amplified. Brings some slow-moving thunderstorms to the far south - a dramatic drought-weakener there (still warm to very warm so a lot of evaporation limiting results), but elsewhere it stays bone dry for the vast majority. Further mid-high 20s temps on offer for the N. half of the UK. These additions of high pressure tie in nicely with the rapid adjustments taking place to the tropical atmosphere in the Pacific and the subsequent response of the downstream pattern across N. America, the Atlantic, and then the UK and N. Europe. In fact, I'd not rule out further increases over the next few days. That's a big kick on the positive tendency side - and some way beyond what the model was predicting yesterday. The model is still in the process of coming around, though, and the above is based of the 00z set.

Belting ukmo out to 144....staying hot until Wednesday at least then!

The very warm. sometimes hot, sunny and dry weather is set to continue but some gradual pattern changes will initiate some regional temperature variations as the period progresses. Put simplistically these changes constitute the high cell moving N/NE towards Norway allowing both warm and more humid air associated with low pressure to the south to move north into southern England and Wales whilst the Azores HP, centred to the south west, renews ridging north east. Over the next couple of days the west/east temp bias will continue with the plume out to the west and onshore winds to the east. This will be particularly noticeable today which could well be the hottest day of the year, or many a year, in N. Ireland, western Scotland, NW England and parts of Wales. After a clear night in most areas, any low cloud in eastern areas that has ingressed inland will quickly burn off to just coastal regions so another hot and sunny day beckons but with some relief in the form of sea breezes around the coast Overnight the low cloud will return, perhaps more widespread as the easterly strengthens, and it may well linger more through the day in some areas with a dyeing cold front quite adjacent, but tomorrow will again be warm and sunny generally but perhaps the temps down a shade from today. Saturday brings us to the position, not only where this post began, but one that has been causing the models a bit of grief in assessing the phasing of the Atlantic trough and the promotion of the Iberian low resulting in the surface low tracking north and introducing the more humid and less stable airmass to the south. Thus by Saturday there is a clear redistribution of temps with now a N/S split, remaining very warm in the south but cloudier and cooler in parts of the north. Essentially this remains the theme over Sunday and Monday, The warmer more humid air pushing north under the ridging high pressure thus the North Sea easterly veering a tad, So no drastic deterioration of the fine spell but generally warmer the further south you go with possibly more cloud in some north and north east regions.

GEM going straight for the settled option, here T240:

Amazing ECM charts tonight!!

Blimey, that’s what you call a classic summer set up! Cracking ECM

Yes tonight's ECM is now as you would expect from a small cut off low coming up against a block to the east. The lows are diverted either south or north, and don't get straight through the middle. The charts this evening don't suggest wall to wall sunshine after the middle of next week, but staying warm throughout and once again, for next weekend, our next round of high pressure moves in.

I would like to add the GEFS 12z mean is awesome too, keeps things warm / very warm throughout, especially further south and with plenty of azores high / ridge influence...so, predominantly settled but also a chance of some thundery continental weather too. I would say the first half of July is currently looking potentially very good.

Enouigh of the bickering please, it's the weather, we can't change it, so there's not really any need to argue over it.

GFS 12z looks quite wet for the first week of July especially in the SW, parts of Wales along with ROI, a big change after all this hot, sunny weather we've had

Glasgow 31.3C 88F 4pm ob

Some of us just like warmth and heat. I don't sit in the winter chat threads gfuqhgfpjhing all season long about how cold it is and how "selfish and immature" those who enjoy bitingly cold weather are. Coming in here daily and reading posts from users praying for the demise of Summer is really starting to tick me off.

Not an easy question to answer, S_J...I do, however, suspect that any fire-risk could be reduced by about 90% by simply removing the commonest source of unwanted ignition: imbecilic human beings with their barbecues and dog-ends? Restrict access to all national parks while the fire-risk is so high...

Just dropping in from Brum. Glad to see you not missing out for a change. Looks like a very hot one up there. Only 27 max here today for us lot

The theme this summer is that any rain that appears in the models keeps being pushed back. In recent summers you've been wondering when it will stop raining, this summer your wondering when it will start raining.

Gfs gets that low no where near as close with that low as the ecm does!!more hot and sunny weather well into next week according to this run!!no changes on this run!!

We timed our school activities well this year, Year 7 trip to Bath on 5th July, Year 12 Fieldwork on the Gower Peninsula 9th July

Here's something showing on UKMO extended what we haven't seen for a while... Rain!

At 18.9C at 9 o'clock in the morning and wall to wall sunshine, today is going to be special. Am going for the all time June high (set just along the road from us at Ochtertyre: 32.2C) to fall today and just short of the all time record. 32.5C somewhere. Enjoy it, kilters! PS: who mentioned 1976..?

From the Met Office forecast for NI today: Regional Forecast for Northern Ireland Headline: Hot or very hot. Today: It will be dry and sunny and becoming hot or very hot, perhaps the hottest day on record which currently stands at 30.8 Celsius. Some refreshing seas breezes will develop around the coasts in the afternoon. Maximum temperature 30 °C.

Still fairly confident that this first third of July will see the last of the warmth of the warmth for a while. We have seen the trades redevelop in the western Pacific and are forecast to transfer east. More tropical assistance could redevelop of course later in the month but i suspect the middle third of July is more likely than not to see Atlantic influence even if not 2012 esc.

After a grey start with fog/low cloud this morning, turned into an absolute scorcher of a day. Max of 26.5C - warmest day of the year so far. Tomorrow looks like it will top that. Would be great if somewhere in Scotland can beat the all time record. Another notably dry spell developing, too, by the looks of things. A perfect evening for a balloon flight over sunny Perthshire.

A really good end to tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean with a strong surge from the azores high / ridge..very encouraging trend from the 00z continues with the 12z and prospects for July to deliver plenty more summery weather currently looking good!

superb hot spell, crystal clear blue skies (ok after early cloud) , strong sun in dry fresh air... beautiful!