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Showing content with the highest reputation on 28/06/18 in all areas

  1. 18 points
    I've seen this before. Expect the warm/very warm weather to continue to around 19th July. Then it all slips back into a more Atlantic driven pattern with plenty of rain to alleviate any concerns that may have arisen by then about water shortages. This is all part of a well known pattern of weather that often occurs over the UK in the summer. It's known as " It Was Nice Until The Kids Broke Up For School"
  2. 14 points
    Looking at ECM ensembles for T96 (Monday midnight) - although the UK remains on the warm side on all ensembles, it's a total mess regarding that low to the SW. Some develop it a lot, some little - some give it active fronts, some just a peppering of showers. Some get the showers into the SW by this stage though I think they are in the minority. The point being that Tuesday-Thursday cannot be resolved until the formation of this low is resolved. I know many will want the low to stay SW and shallow but I have to be honest, my garden is really cheering on that low now. Especially after I showed it last night's clusters, which seem keener than ever on another bout of high pressure for D10-D15: and for the umpteenth time, the ensemble mean for uppers does not drop below 10C in England/Wales from T0 right out to T360, which is just mental. The London ensembles diagram shows the heat well - 15 days averaging above 25C (and from experience we know this really means 27C-28C). This is not normal!!
  3. 12 points
    It's similar to what usually happens in wintertime...there's almost no 'cold' air to tap into? Long may it continue!
  4. 11 points
    A great post as ever Tamara - as I come out of hibernation long enough to blow my nose for the zillionth time this last month, search for a cool patch anywhere in the house, and pray that rain might come to save the garden. Ugh. I make no secret of my utter loathing of hot summer weather. In my book, if you want it hot go to Greece. Anyway - why my first post in a long while? Well - aside from the fatigue of a long winter season on NW crowned with the excitement of March I have also been watching the pacific on and off through Spring, wondering just how the engine room of the planetary weather systems might view summer 2018 with knock on effects into the winter. MetO forecast now is fairly bullish as to a move towards El, Nino Region 3.4 emerging round about now from neutral to slight positive, with a gentle gathering up towards +1 by the time we hit mid autumn. As Tamara states - if we are to get a coupling of the ocean base state with the atmosphere which has retained a Nina blueprint for a long time now then we absolutely must see a significant rise in GLAAM. It cant happen any other way. ECM MJO forecasts clearly show the spaghetti heading towards a phase 5 orbit as the MJO hits the pacific and JMA's July MJO composites clearly show the strong atlantic ridge supported by this evolution through phases 5 and 6, assuming this MJO gets out of the COD So - will we get a Nino orbit as potentially suggested above? Knife edge. I am uncertain that a very neutral ENSO appearance through most of July is going to bring that ocean/atmosphere coupling into a Nino phase quite yet - Schraldi plots with their well known low AAM bias are unexciting and unless the Nino grows in strength faster than either the Met or the CPC are expecting then any impact looks to me to be towards the end of summer and into autumn. If that is the case then one would expect the pacific to reamplify via an unimpressive MJO phase with the likely result of the UK ridge replaced with some kind of UK trough. However the water in the equatorial pacific is warm from west into centre (Nino 4 through to Nino 3) suggesting the MJO could possibly grow through phases 5/6/7/8... and it is not beyond the bounds of possibility therefore that July sees a tropical surge with consequent impacts in the sub tropics, namely suppression of the pacific ridge with consequent downstream impacts that might see the Euro warm spell continue. After all... look what happened in February. No polar vortex to worry about in these summer situations. Less complex.... but still complex enough to ensure that long range weather forecasting is fraught with difficulty. Where Tamara is spot on in my opinion is that the evolution of conditions in the pacific through the first fortnight in July is likely to dictate the course of the rest of the summer. Meanwhile my T shirt is now sticking to my back and the only solution to this misery is another cold shower. Hooray.....
  5. 10 points
    Longer term signals continue to look very good for a continuation of very summery weather well into July on the Ecm 00z ensemble mean with strong azores high / ridge influence returning which is also the case with the Gefs 00z mean..very encouraging
  6. 9 points
    Taking a snap shot of the GFS 06z at 240. Really following the script of the 0z ensemble mean. Upper trough regrouping mid Atlantic with a downstream ridge rebuilding in our vicinity. A high pressure dominated outlook.
  7. 8 points
    ECM 00Z clusters - the op run is in the smallest cluster at T96 - though due to short lead time in needs to be given extra weight. The low still only brushing the SW on most clusters by T144 Longer term, still looking good for a renewed push of high pressure between D8 and D13. Uppers above 10C for most throughout all 15 days, again.
  8. 7 points
    Very little rain, probably zilch for most, early next week at least, hints of thundery showers mid-week onwards pushing N and NE across England and Wales on both 00z GFS and 00z ECMWF, as an upper trough lifts northeast, though the way the models have been depicting the blocking high squeezing the life out of any attempts to breakdown from the SW, confidence in this for me is not too high for now, given models have back-tracked on thundery showers for the south Sunday into Monday to limit to the far SW of England now. Medium range - 00z GFS seems keen to strengthen the upper westerlies towards the UK, bringing a more mobile flow off the Atlantic, however, ECMWF and GEFS mean suggest ridging may rebuild from the SW. So perhaps a heatwave reload in early July?
  9. 6 points
    26c here now Far to hot for me. I really am a snow loving person!!!! Going to row up some hay this afternoon in an air conditioned tractor set at 5c Ho Ho Ho ! Just a grumpy old farmer today.
  10. 6 points
    ECM clusters are a total mess at shorter range this morning: Different depths and positions of the Biscay low meaning we're not really sure what we're going to get. Here's something you don't see too often, especially at 192+ hours! 100% agreement on a ridge to the NE, no low pressure infringements. No change out at day 10-12 either, staying settled with no rainfall in the offing. Even day 15 still has a strong ridge - no other options, amazing really. Not even a tiny cluster of low pressure scenarios, just variations on a theme - high pressure all the way. Summer 2018 could go into the hall of fame at this rate.
  11. 6 points
    Another fantastic GEFS 00z mean with plenty of high pressure / strong azores ridging and for southern uk especially..high temperatures..well into July it's currently looking very good
  12. 6 points
    Are you some sort of troll?? ECM day 10 - high pressure building GEM day 10 - high pressure building Literally none of the models are pushing a return to a long unsettled regime.
  13. 5 points
    GFS 6z reduces any breakdown to a brief period in a pressure no man's land at T168, before building in the ridge again, here at T240. Lovely!
  14. 5 points
    EC mean is absolutely tremendous for warm lovers- if anything the azores anticyclone is building again towards day 10 with very little rain expected and even beyond day 10 little sign of anything Atlantic driven near the UK. Of course things can change in the 6-10 day period so nothing cast in stone but as it stands its looking really good.
  15. 5 points
    Quick update before my early morning run!!ukmo and gfs and arpege all the same this morning!!biscay low further soouth again and heatwave continues well into next week!!over to you mr ecm..
  16. 4 points
    Keep winning. Talk of throwing the game is pure cowardice. Let's beat the Belgians well and strike fear into future opponents.
  17. 4 points
    The very warm. sometimes hot, sunny and dry weather is set to continue but some gradual pattern changes will initiate some regional temperature variations as the period progresses. Put simplistically these changes constitute the high cell moving N/NE towards Norway allowing both warm and more humid air associated with low pressure to the south to move north into southern England and Wales whilst the Azores HP, centred to the south west, renews ridging north east. Over the next couple of days the west/east temp bias will continue with the plume out to the west and onshore winds to the east. This will be particularly noticeable today which could well be the hottest day of the year, or many a year, in N. Ireland, western Scotland, NW England and parts of Wales. After a clear night in most areas, any low cloud in eastern areas that has ingressed inland will quickly burn off to just coastal regions so another hot and sunny day beckons but with some relief in the form of sea breezes around the coast Overnight the low cloud will return, perhaps more widespread as the easterly strengthens, and it may well linger more through the day in some areas with a dyeing cold front quite adjacent, but tomorrow will again be warm and sunny generally but perhaps the temps down a shade from today. Saturday brings us to the position, not only where this post began, but one that has been causing the models a bit of grief in assessing the phasing of the Atlantic trough and the promotion of the Iberian low resulting in the surface low tracking north and introducing the more humid and less stable airmass to the south. Thus by Saturday there is a clear redistribution of temps with now a N/S split, remaining very warm in the south but cloudier and cooler in parts of the north. Essentially this remains the theme over Sunday and Monday, The warmer more humid air pushing north under the ridging high pressure thus the North Sea easterly veering a tad, So no drastic deterioration of the fine spell but generally warmer the further south you go with possibly more cloud in some north and north east regions.
  18. 3 points
    Just dropping in from Brum. Glad to see you not missing out for a change. Looks like a very hot one up there. Only 27 max here today for us lot
  19. 3 points
    The theme this summer is that any rain that appears in the models keeps being pushed back. In recent summers you've been wondering when it will stop raining, this summer your wondering when it will start raining.
  20. 3 points
    Gfs gets that low no where near as close with that low as the ecm does!!more hot and sunny weather well into next week according to this run!!no changes on this run!!
  21. 3 points
    We timed our school activities well this year, Year 7 trip to Bath on 5th July, Year 12 Fieldwork on the Gower Peninsula 9th July
  22. 3 points
    Here's something showing on UKMO extended what we haven't seen for a while... Rain!
  23. 3 points
    Pure cowardice, sorry. If we can't beat anyone on our day and are scared to face top nations, we don't even deserve to think about winning the thing.
  24. 3 points
    At 18.9C at 9 o'clock in the morning and wall to wall sunshine, today is going to be special. Am going for the all time June high (set just along the road from us at Ochtertyre: 32.2C) to fall today and just short of the all time record. 32.5C somewhere. Enjoy it, kilters! PS: who mentioned 1976..?
  25. 3 points
    From the Met Office forecast for NI today: Regional Forecast for Northern Ireland Headline: Hot or very hot. Today: It will be dry and sunny and becoming hot or very hot, perhaps the hottest day on record which currently stands at 30.8 Celsius. Some refreshing seas breezes will develop around the coasts in the afternoon. Maximum temperature 30 °C.
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