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Showing most liked content on 28/06/18 in all areas

  1. 14 likes
    Looking at ECM ensembles for T96 (Monday midnight) - although the UK remains on the warm side on all ensembles, it's a total mess regarding that low to the SW. Some develop it a lot, some little - some give it active fronts, some just a peppering of showers. Some get the showers into the SW by this stage though I think they are in the minority. The point being that Tuesday-Thursday cannot be resolved until the formation of this low is resolved. I know many will want the low to stay SW and shallow but I have to be honest, my garden is really cheering on that low now. Especially after I showed it last night's clusters, which seem keener than ever on another bout of high pressure for D10-D15: and for the umpteenth time, the ensemble mean for uppers does not drop below 10C in England/Wales from T0 right out to T360, which is just mental. The London ensembles diagram shows the heat well - 15 days averaging above 25C (and from experience we know this really means 27C-28C). This is not normal!!
  2. 6 likes
    26c here now Far to hot for me. I really am a snow loving person!!!! Going to row up some hay this afternoon in an air conditioned tractor set at 5c Ho Ho Ho ! Just a grumpy old farmer today.
  3. 6 likes
    ECM clusters are a total mess at shorter range this morning: Different depths and positions of the Biscay low meaning we're not really sure what we're going to get. Here's something you don't see too often, especially at 192+ hours! 100% agreement on a ridge to the NE, no low pressure infringements. No change out at day 10-12 either, staying settled with no rainfall in the offing. Even day 15 still has a strong ridge - no other options, amazing really. Not even a tiny cluster of low pressure scenarios, just variations on a theme - high pressure all the way. Summer 2018 could go into the hall of fame at this rate.
  4. 4 likes
    The way that low goes under the block is a little unconvincing - UKMO looks like it will either track SE or N instead. Even so, it's just two days (Thurs/Fri next week) which look more showery on the GFS before we're back to settled weather. Warmth never goes.
  5. 4 likes
    Keep winning. Talk of throwing the game is pure cowardice. Let's beat the Belgians well and strike fear into future opponents.
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    Just dropping in from Brum. Glad to see you not missing out for a change. Looks like a very hot one up there. Only 27 max here today for us lot
  9. 3 likes
    Gfs gets that low no where near as close with that low as the ecm does!!more hot and sunny weather well into next week according to this run!!no changes on this run!!
  10. 3 likes
    We timed our school activities well this year, Year 7 trip to Bath on 5th July, Year 12 Fieldwork on the Gower Peninsula 9th July
  11. 3 likes
    After a grey start with fog/low cloud this morning, turned into an absolute scorcher of a day. Max of 26.5C - warmest day of the year so far. Tomorrow looks like it will top that. Would be great if somewhere in Scotland can beat the all time record. Another notably dry spell developing, too, by the looks of things. A perfect evening for a balloon flight over sunny Perthshire.
  12. 2 likes
    And if they ever catch the fire-bugs what started it - a firing squad might come in handy!
  13. 2 likes
    Hope we stuff Belgium 5-0 , come on England , we can win this tournament.
  14. 2 likes
    Your charts highlight the way I'm currently seeing things, S: there is simply so much hot air around the Northern Hemisphere right now that it'll require something with an enormous amount of momentum to really change things; which is why I'm currently looking to the teleconnection folk for guidance... The next thing that I can envisage (the way things currently stand) is the start of polar-vortex formation...Late August-early September?
  15. 2 likes
    For gawd's sake peeps, can't we just all wish for what we wish for? It's not as if our wishes are going to make the slightest bit of difference, is it?
  16. 2 likes
    It probably is rounded up though I'm sure we'll be looking at Glasgow airport rounding down to 30C or up to 31C in the next few hours.
  17. 2 likes
    31C or even 32C looks pretty possible at Glasgow, although the automated forecast on the Met-O website is showing thunderstorms later??
  18. 2 likes
    Sorry, Gavin, not following you there. The scale below is inches. Most of the country has in the region of 0.2 inches which is 5mm. Am I getting something wrong, or are you?
  19. 2 likes
    The problem with throwing the game is what if you lose heavily and that dents confidence . If it’s a draw and you then try and get a yellow card or cards to slip below Belgium what if you get sent off. The differences in the draw appear only at the QF stage. I’ve seen nothing from the other teams to suggest that there’s a huge favourite and that England should be trying to avoid certain teams . Keep the positivity and momentum up and go for the win against Belgium. I know others will disagree but that’s my take on things !
  20. 2 likes
    Another warm sunny start to the day at 16c. Scarifying neeps late last night when it got cooler and there is still some moisture in the ground and the late germinating 20% are growing well. All the memories of 75/76 are flooding back. Physical work very early am and late evening and tractor work during the height of the day but without the benefit of air con in those days.
  21. 2 likes
    LOL. Must admit that while a NE/E'ie, I did in retrospect realise how that might have been read as the urban dictionary version rather than the standard oven related one. EDIT and oh, I suppose intentionally exploring boggy ground on a hot Scots summer evening is the behaviour of a prize idiot so...
  22. 2 likes
    And the 12C uppers line never clears the Kent coast on the mean charts either. That's before the next high moves in. So we may start the next hot phase without the previous one having ended? Usually unbelievable, but it doesn't seem unbelievable tonight.
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    Well they do have Escobar on their side!
  25. 1 like
    Next England game is on ITV and I saw this on Twitter. Since 1998, 9 England World Cup games have been on ITV of which England won 1 (Trinidad and Tobago). England have won 9 of the 13 on the Beeb.
  26. 1 like
    If Bishopton was 31.9 c , Glasgow City Centre must of been higher?
  27. 1 like
    I’m shocked Martinez actually came out and said that . Even if you’re not bothered about winning you shouldn’t come out and state it so clearly .
  28. 1 like
    Beginning to get used to the heat. Another hot day with light north easterly breeze Max temp so far 26.7C now 26.4C, Barometer 1024mb falling, Wind F2 NE, Rainfall nil
  29. 1 like
    Can never understand the concept of how someone can be 'selfish' for enjoying/wanting a weather type. It would make sense if you could go to a shop and buy a weather type which everyone else has to put up with, but since no-one can control the weather, how can anyone be selfish for liking or disliking it, as that preference has zero effect on anyone else? Back to the subject of the hour, my garden is brown, but a bird abattoir it isn't.
  30. 1 like
    My garden is looking quite healthy, and the lawn is green. I have been watering it regularly though, as it just turns to dust overnight due to being a sandy loam soil.
  31. 1 like
    That's because there isn't any! The only possibility I can invent, is that some virga might be falling from the narrow band of cirrussy-cirrostratussy-cirro-altocumulussy cloud that's just passing across from the NE...?
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    Going on about it every single day isn't going to achieve anything. I'd suggest getting over it.
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    Currently 27.4C and has been for last half hour. A breeze picking up which I suspect will stop things getting much hotter. Oh, and just discovered the kids had left the jar of hazelnut spread in the sun - now completely liquid!
  36. 1 like
    Cu readily building here, a nice sight instead of the constant blue we've been having, not sure if anything will come of it mind but convection is occurring.
  37. 1 like
    In the Mood Playing World in Motion its the 90s and its Belgium Come on England!!!
  38. 1 like
    Perhaps. It's difficult to say because the areas they suggested could reach 32/33C may not have coincided with reporting stations - Shannon airport got to 31C which I think was reasonably close to what it was predicting. I think today sees a better chance for those kinds of values actually recorded in Ireland - the areas of 32C/33C seem a bit wider on today's ARPEGE: We also have potential for 32C in N Ireland (a national record?) and 32C in Scotland according to these charts. The heat is actually down a little for England and Wales, apart from the far NW (31C perhaps in Carlise/Keswick) and the far SW (30C in Chivenor). AROME is in pretty good agreement - areas of 32-33C in Ireland, 30-31C in N Ireland, and a couple of isolated spots reaching 30C in England/Wales, but generally 1 or 2C down on yesterday I note the ECM raw data now gives a 30C for Ireland - this model has generally been 3C down on actual maximums all week, so 33C a possibility from this model too. The temperature to beat for the all time Irish record is 33.3C. Close! The Northern Irish record looks even more vulnerable today: 30.8C. The Scottish record of 32.9C should be safe, but not absolutely impossible when you consider the exceptional localised conditions in Wales yesterday e.g. Portmadog. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx Just looking ahead a little - now I know a few of my fellow southerners have been complaining that this heatwave hasn't been anything special so far (yes really!!) - well the waiting for extreme temperatures will soon be over. Sunday is looking very hot in the south on ARPEGE - 34C recorded on a few successive runs now: The ECM raw data for Sunday has a large area between 28C-29C through central southern areas, with 30C in places - again, going by the form of this week, that would equate to something similar to ARPEGE at 31C-33C, but the highest temps a little further NE (as Knocker's chart above shows).
  39. 1 like
    For one reason at least, I am hoping for some decent rain to fall before the school hols get underway...I find the prospect of hundreds of 'wee Jimmies' roaming through the English countryside, armed only with half a brain and a box of Swan Vesta rather disconcerting...
  40. 1 like
    Total rainfall out to D10 on 00z ECM struggles to exceed 1mm for the vast majority
  41. 1 like
    The BBC were suggesting a deluge on Sunday and a major breakdown next week. Don’t pay any notice to it. Of course it might happen but sadly the quality of BBC forecasting has reached an all time low since they ditched the Met Office in order to save money. In life you get what you pay for, and it really annoys me that part of my licence fee is spent on this drivel.
  42. 1 like
    Bbc is suggesting a breakdown to occur as the summer holidays start. Are we really surprised at this point. Not looking good for the second half of the month
  43. 1 like
    Thinking about it, this has to be the best weather I can remember since I was born in 92. Sure, I just recall much hotter periods like August 2003, July 2006 and July 2013, and of course the 36c in July 2015 but they are only singular months and spells interspersed with mediocrity. This spell started in early April and has pretty much stuck around. April was easily the best I can remember in some time, and May was easily the best in my lifetime. Very warm, hugely sunny and dry. And this June has also been so dry, warm and sunny. There has been no other point in my life that I can remember such a long period of dry, warm and useable weather. Many years I have had to cancel outdoor activities due to rain etc but that has been seldom to non existent for nearly three months now. In terms of longevity this spell has to take the biscuit and already sees it in the record books for me. Will be very interesting to see what develops in July and August. Given the very warm atmosphere and ground temperatures due to this spell, if we did import that French heat, wow, the sky’s the limit. 
  44. 1 like
    Absolute roaster here. Was cooler at work in Edinburgh due to the haar, which is always quite a site as you come over soutra and look down over east lothian. I'd take some photos of it but that's against the law now; at least while yer daein 60 mph. Anyway went out for an evening dug walk and it was idyllic. Fields of gold stuff. Went into the woods up the hill where there's a spring line and discovered a forest of foxgloves; really impressive growth and lovely in the late evening light streaming through the trees. However, it was at that point I was caught by a marauding pack of cleggs. Trapped by thick ferns, a boggy area and a barbed wire fence, it got really nasty really quickly. Was telling the dugs 'Just run, leave me, save yersels!' at one point while I thrashed my way wildly through the undergrowth, swatting madly. Home now getting treated by Mrs SS and her sting cream. Cold beer helping. Man it's hot.
  45. 1 like
    Indeed wp, we would be in with more than a shout.
  46. 1 like
    England can't lose to Germany on pens for once in other news, shut up Gary Nevile
  47. 1 like
    As an Arsenal fan I’m happy to say I’ve been really impressed by Harry Kane . Not just his play but his attitude and he comes across very well when interviewed . One of the best things about this WC so far for England is Rooney not being there and not having to put up with the soap opera surrounding him.
  48. 1 like
    Much has already been said of the 5 to 10 day period in terms of the phasing of the Iberian trough with an Atlantic breakdown. As others have rightly indicated, morning operational output attributed mostly to the ECM suggest this might well be the most progressive solution and tonights follow-up output will be not long coming to see if this is repeated. But, just for now, as well as the indications as discussed from the clusters, the graphical ensemble for London suggests the operational was one of the coolest solutions into next week and more especially significant probably, amongst the very wettest of all But this type of progression is an aspect of the models playing on the seasonal wavelength long-wave evolution with regard to the Atlantic ridge that prevails under low angular momentum conditions and how the upstream pattern increasingly favours withdrawl of the eastward extension of this ridge to the west of the UK heading into the heart of summer under such a regime. As pressure falls downstream then its not hard to see how a trough fills the void. Pretty much every post made since mid May has tried to anticipate such an eventual evolution in these conditions and put forward the pros and cons of the alternative pathways. Ridge/ trough, or trough/ ridge? Also as previously suggested might be the case, the time is now arriving for any notion that such an sustained? (big question mark here) evolution is to be forthcoming, is to be strongly tested - because evidence keeps stacking up to the contrary and some NWP bluff might well be called in the week or two ahead. Some wider spectrum data with comments and conclusions : Consensus firming up further on trend towards fledgling El Nino within a timeframe that is coming closer and closer, the SOI is consistently on the -ve side of neutral, https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/ ...and there is yet another oceanic kelvin wave in progress across the Pacific upwelling warm sub waters to assist SST warming across all ENSO zones in the coming few weeks. Indeed the Nino 3.4 region, boxed as above at the top of the page, is now at its highest value (+0.4C) since July 19 2017 - and which is a timely statistic as it represents when trades winds were rapidly increasing as the Pacific ENSO zones were cooling, La Nina was establishing a greater grip on the atmospheric circulation and a brief plume around the 18th/19th July was a last gasp before the summer went rapidly downhill heading into August. That is, if we except a very short, but nonetheless very pleasant and welcome summer-like spell (mostly for the SE) at the August Bank holiday. Particularly welcome at the time because a chilly and increasingly wet autumn beckoned almost immediately September started. But its especially timely now. Bearing in mind the knee jerk frailties of this thread at any time of year, its worth anticipating ahead how any apparent upcoming breakdown scenario from next week is destined likely to be reacted to in terms of pessimistic extrapolations for remaining large chunks of the summer. Keep in mind the swathe of broad-scale signals listed above, and then see that there is currently representing a substantially increased disconnect of at least -2SD low angular momentum (essentially still an emphatic La Nina signal at face value). If this summer is really a carbon copy of summer 2017 then one might indeed extrapolate that the ridge extension from the Azores High is set to evaporate, as dictated by seasonal wavelength changes under -ve GLAAM - and the rest of the summer is to be swamped from upstream by persistent trade winds, an amplified Pacific and a downstream Atlantic ridge , suppressed Jetstream and UK trough The beauty of this weeks synoptic through the grace of Atlantic ridge extension underpinned by an Iberian heat trough, might further exacerbate the sort of angst described from some quarters. Yet, peeping above the NWP 6hr roundabout navel-gaze, and with that ocean/atmosphere unstable disconnect in mind, something has to give. All those broad-scale intra seasonal signals can't be wrong can they? Its not the actual ocean base state that has particular importance here, but to carry on the good point that @Singularity was making yesterday, its the very correct implication that a significant rally in atmospheric angular momentum is imperative to happen as a vital piece of jigsaw to achieving the ocean/atmospheric coupling that makes the move towards a base El Nino state possible. Such necessity is founded on where the atmospheric circulation is currently - in terms of atmospheric angular momentum and where the pattern would indeed almost certainly head downhill through July *if AAM stays where it is now*. Rallies in AAM tendency, especially the more significant and robust they are, imply very warm/hot spells in the heart of summer as much as they trigger cold spells in winter. The lead-up to the Feb 2018 SSW being a classic case of intense tropical poleward momentum (leading to a temporary reversion of the La Nina standing wave that month) - and the rest is history as they say. The current suppression of AAM is linked to tropical convection being entrenched in the Western Hemisphere at present. It will be this, that will be programming increases of easterly (Nina-like) trade winds and in turn risk flipping NWP to a less desirable pattern But it cannot stay there forever, especially bearing in mind the contrary oceanic signals happening in the Pacific. I will be keeping a very close eye on the tropical/extra tropical cycle as we head through the first half of July for events in the Pacific triggering a significant westerly wind burst and a surge in AAM that would shake-up the synoptic pattern from any attempts to descend into cool British summer wetness. . High pressure in the Atlantic and/or blocking at higher latitudes and a downstream trough c/o southerly tracking jet seem much more counter intuitive than the progression of last summer which took this sort of route. Rather instead, any breakdown leading to the increasing spectre as time goes by of a trough re-setting/stalling to the west of us and high pressure over and to the east. As ever of course Mother Nature and the weather has the last word, but I can't see unsettled interludes being anything more than short-lived this summer
  49. 1 like
    With Luke being so severely disabled I did often think what reason he would have to choose such a challenge this time around? That said he obviously gave a number of folk reason to contemplate their own situations in comparison to his perceived life experience...... The other thing that always comes up ,especially from atheists it appears? Is a need to restrict all of everything to that explainable by mankind's current level of knowledge? For such a young species to be so up its own A**e as to think it knows enough to say " There is nothing but us" when contemplating higher levels of existence/experience.........? I tend to feel they know only enough to highlight their own ignorance! Personally I struggle with visualising the other place where our gravity leaches out of, and into, our own universe so any notion of closing other potential leech outs into our dimension/universe appears ridiculous! As we push on into ever stranger understandings of our reality it appears we just open up more and more potential for there being far more than is imagined in most folks philosophies? The folk who confidently declare that " there is not" need to have a serious think about what they actually 'know', what it is possible to 'know' and what we might 'know' tomorrow....... Do as thy will but harm no other............
  50. 1 like
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