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Very reluctant, as ever, to make comment on intra day operational outputs at this distance which will inevitably change in detail every 6 to 12 hours, but the more hurried nature you refer to by Friday will be why virtually the whole of the UK mainland is still covered by > +10 850 upper temperatures by this time next week then If that is a 'breakdown' then I remain a very happy bunny... A few things: - (apologies that a lot of this has been said before, but its the type of thing that gets ignored on this thread at any time of year when it applies to weather preference biases and sought after outcomes) 1) A non-NWP overview is a great help in being able to read between the lines and as a consequence not make knee jerk reactions and/or be irrationally surprised/disappointed by variance in operational/ensemble data. Not that these should be slavishy taken at face value anyway unless compared for trends over more than 24hrs. 2) Even then, its possible to compare trends of NWP ensemble suites (especially with the added helpful use of clusters being available ) with how they are matching up with tropical/extra tropical wind-flow changes that dictate the direction of travel of angular momentum. Angular momentum, in deliberately very simplified terms, and when applied to synoptic weather patterns - refers to the turning force of the Jetstream as measured by torque mechanisms that change the trajectory and strength of wind-flows. This, once more grossly over-simplified, in turn is therefore a very useful guide as to whether the pattern ebbs or flows - i.e there is forward momentum ...or some retrogression 4) With that in mind, best to think of NWP at the moment as a constantly updated re-calculation of ebbing/decelerating wind inertia from upstream (retrogressive cooler solutions when applied in the current circumstances in the Atlantic and European sector) ; and flowing higher momentum solutions from upstream that keep ridging extended more strongly downstream and the cooler air boundary at higher latitudes (warmer or 'hotter' air advection solutions) Attempted suggestions of how these may play out are endlessly discussed in these updates. On that basis, there is less room to be surprised (or disappointed) by the ever varying solutions that come into view. So, some truncated GSDM (Global Synoptic Dynamical Model) analysis kept as short as possible: GLAAM is currently a little below average with tropical forcing over the Western Hemisphere and waiting for signal to move forward and re-boot angular momentum tendency which is also below average We are benefitting, in terms of anomalous ridging, from a legacy of a strong injection of +AAM anomalies across the Pacific c/o the convectively coupled kelvin wave that recently initiated in the Eastern Pacific and has subsequently migrated eastwards across the Atlantic to Africa. With angular momentum held back (currently) it is inevitable that some discontinuous retrogression of the sub tropical ridging will occur and a suggestion of a split of the anticyclone appear on its eastern perimeters. Clearly shown on some NWP today for example. However, with the medium longer term signal still very much in the opposite gear of a more hostile environment for attempted Nina (retrogressive) type forcing then its only a matter of time before the tropics start to force the changing Pacific pattern (sub water warming c/o another oceanic kelvin wave that has begun) and imprint this on the atmosphere. This is supportive in my opinion to prospects heading towards mid summer and especially beyond. In the shorter term, the heat-pump cut-off features that keep underpinning this sub tropical ridging and have been regular enough features of the late Spring and the summer season so far and are going to make it hard for any attempted cooler air to make it too far south before the whole pattern re-sets from upstream. I think that the medium term models are starting to grapple with this already *see start of post* There is plenty of good discussion usually provided on the clusters. But as another way of illustrating the same model suite, the latest graphical depiction of ECM ensembles for London also illustrate the sustained warm/very warm trend and probable difficulty in cooler air getting established (sustainably) very far south. Usually folk would fall off a perch in delight with a set of data like this appearing for as much as two weeks ahead Just my little suggestion-box bit, but it could well be that the theme of the summer is for initial sub tropical forcing c/o the Azores High (ebbing and flowing) gets replaced by focus of ridging to the east as the season matures>onwards and a more defined trough in the Atlantic appears (feeding Iberian heat pump features as energy disrupts SE). This is a more obvious +ve AAM driven (Nino-like) summer pattern and entails plenty of hot southerlies/southeasterlies punctuated by thundery sequence re-sets - as you were. This is the UK, and the best summers will always have 'lull' phases before re-loading. But there are days of truly amazing weather ahead to enjoy - and best enjoyed out there away from worrying about every intra-day output spoiling the enjoyment of outdoor relaxation and enjoyment

For sure, no heat at all, and total garbage - just maxes into the high twenties and high pressure in charge right the way up to about 200 hours+. Some perspective needed perhaps?

Just to help you out here in terms of model watching - in case this is fairly new to you, or anyone else. A change at 120/144 to the details, such as temperature etc, is not a 'huge downgrade'. It's something which is going to happen run to run, a tiny change in the positioning of the high pressure can change the wind direction and therefore change the temperatures. Following the models at that range in that amount of detail is fair enough in some respects, if you enjoy watching what they're doing, but reacting to them with this upgrade/downgrade stuff constantly is over the top. My advice would be to stop, but if people want to do that, then the model banter thread is the best place for it.

The Models this morning continue to show a very warm and sometimes hot week ahead, With temps in the high 20's & turning hotter as the week progresses, With temps touching 30c by Friday as shown by the Net-Wx MR model. Time to get the Summer hat out..

With the more pronounced easterly flow of recent det. runs, we've traded extreme/troubling levels of heat for mainly 'quite hot' conditions which will be easier to manage but yes, does fall short of being of much note in terms of peak temperatures for the very warm/quite hot spell as a whole. Still plenty of ensembles going hotter though, and it really seems to be that the behaviour of slack areas of low pressure out east has become a guessing game for the models in general. As for the weekend onward, for a while now this has been flagged by modelling as the time that the ridging relaxes in our vicinity, this as Tamara says being in line with the fade away of the Kelvin wave-induced boost to the eastward reaching of the Azores High. I have in recent days discussed the potential for extremely hot days to occur, should the hot air become trapped across the UK while winds fall slack. For at least southern parts of the UK, this still seems plausible to me given (as Tamara also points out) the lack of much of a driving force to fully retract the ridge out west of the UK and allow cool air to flood way south. In historical cases with similar forcing, I have observed very shallow ridges hanging on across the far south while low pressure zips across northern parts of the UK. Before long, the models predict AAM trending upward - CFSv2 notably faster than GEFS with this (classic GEFS low AAM bias) - and this has been reflected, albeit without as much gusto as perhaps should be the case, in recent longer-term modelling from EPS and GEFS in which a new ridge from the Azores has featured plentifully. This usually brings a fresher interlude as whatever's left of the old ridge gives way to the new one, but usually the ridges are 'flat' enough (much more west-east stretched than north-south) that this is limited for much of E&W with temperatures still tending to reach near or into the mid-20s before trending upward again as the ridge moves across. What Tamara talks about going forward from there... well, it's pretty much the ultimate weather pattern if you like seeing multiple heatwaves separated by brief destabilisation events, typically featuring abundant thunderstorm activity. Fingers crossed that the sequence of tropical forcing holds together along the required lines .

Not sure how folk can complain about days on end of 25-30c and blue skies but hey ho ! Personally i'll be in the beer garden watching the world cup

Yep, incredible flip - I mean a model showing some showers at 168 hours or so, which means temperatures are lower in a few counties is exceptional, usually they're all identical at that range with this sort of stuff, surely? What next, another 'incredible flip' on the next run when those showers are gone, or have moved elsewhere? I do wonder about the motives of this sort of post, I guess I've given you the reaction you're maybe after though, oops.

Anyone expecting the models to show an endless heatwave every run is setting themselves up for disappointment but the week ahead looks amazing and longer term both the GEFS / ECM 00z mean indicate plenty more from the azores high / ridge going further into July.

Only on here could output like we currently have elicit disappointment ! Five clusters in the 10/14 day on yesterday’s 12z eps so a little more uncertainty but no sign that the generally warm and settled outlook is under much threat. The Wimbledon grass might be looking pretty burned by the finals weekend .....

I like the GFS 12z, what has been shown on many of the model runs that go out 10 days or more, is the resurgence of the Azores ridge, no better example from the GFS at T288: if this keeps happening it will make the summer!

Well for starters, where is this 20c swing in the SW next Saturday? This is the 06z, granted a bit cooler down the east coast (that change in wind direction caused by a relatively small shift in the high pressure's position), but the SW has moved a few degrees, and this over a week away. 00z 06z I assume you're looking at Sunday rather than Saturday (just the odd 200 hours ahead), and yeah, the one very cool spot is SW/CS England and it is all about the position of the showers and cloudcover being modelled. Other parts, still well into the twenties.. But again, we're miles ahead, talking about a single model run and looking at details such as showers / differences in temperatures which are bound to change run to run. Nothing wrong in discussing it, but this ott, at times provocative and overly dramatic language to describe these changes is grating, tiring and off putting when it comes to those wanting to get involved in these discussions. So, if drama is your thing, please use the banter thread.

Doesn't look like it will breakdown at the weekend from there

Those all important ECM cluster ensembles....fair to say there's a lot of chaos. Even at 144 hours there's differences. All high pressure based, but with subtle differences that will affect the temperatures. Cluster 1 closely matches the OP today, and that is the slightly more favoured option - but not massively so at 29%. The other clusters look better to be honest. By 192 hours it's a complete mess, and when you tend to see a lot of equally divided clusters it doesn't really fill you with much confidence: By day 10 there are unsettled options starting to appear: Not worth looking beyond here - the clusters are all over the place. Best to get the here and now sorted before worrying about early July.

Hmmm, heat building once again on the ECM at T192: I think the heat wave will be prolonged after this.

Minimal risk of any rain for a week at least, warm to hot days and fairly comfortable nights for sleeping for most? (aside from Thursday perhaps) Sounds like perfect summer weather to me . Maybe yesterdays output was too hot. I only like extreme heat if its got the storm potential to go with it. I reckon somewhere will still get past 30C in the next week though, 32C at a push with the most likely day being Thursday. And to think of how bad the weather was back in 2012...

In the reliable timeframe (most of the coming week) tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean looks sensational with very summery weather pretty much nationwide..Enjoy..I certainly will!

The key thing for me is whether we see periods of unsettled weather or not, does the Azores high continue to build back in. Really good example of this at T288 on the GFS parallel, aka FV3, here.: as long as this sort of output is showing, summer goes on...

Looking further ahead, the GEFS 12z mean indicates the azores high / ridge still looking strong even by 7th July!...I think this is going to be a fabulous spell for most of the uk, hottest across southern uk... perhaps only the far n / nw seeing any atlantic influence at all and even those areas enjoying plenty of warm settled weather too.

The GEFS 6z mean looks great, especially for southern uk longer term..and next week looks amazing..not a piece of garbage to be seen!

No model is going to show endless days of persistent heatwave action run after run after run, this is the UK not the canaries. The models will always backtrack then leap forwards then backtrack again as they struggle with positioning of the high. Even July 2003 and 2006 the models were struggling on the timing of the heat, uppers etc etc. Be grateful for this Sypnotic pattern and be thankful we're not under 2012 patterns

Don't worry folks, NAVGEM is still going mid thirties for the latter half of the week, and we're close to 100f again by Thursday! http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgem/runs/2018062300/navgemfr-8-138.png?23-08

The week ahead looks a cracker across most of the uk according to the Ecm 12z with increasingly hot conditions as high pressure dominates bringing lots and lots of strong late June sunshine, just the far n / nw seeing a bit of atlantic weather brushing around the top of the high..the heat holds on across southern uk all next week so unless you don't like hot sunny weather and eventually very humid with a growing risk of thunderstorms .. southern uk looks the best place to be during the next 7 / 10 days at least!?️

Looking at the GEFS 12z mean, southern uk in particular will be feeling really hot as next week goes on but it's a glorious spell nationwide which doesn't happen often!

Eyes down for the 12s then and a decent effort from the UKMO first up, here at T144: Have to say, can really feel the difference today, sunny morning giving way to high clouds in Oxfordshire, onwards and upwards!

Precisely the point i made about the 6z mean in my post above, some won't be satisfied unless the models are showing endless heatwave conditions with temps in the mid 30's celsius!.

A quick look though the GEFS 6z ensembles in the T192 to T240 range and I'm happy not much has changed, some with high pressure in charge, some with thundery breakdowns, some with reloading ridge from the Azores. What's not to like?

Yes I couldn't believe what I was reading on here earlier..it was as if next week's heat had been cancelled..happy to report it hasn't been and the mean is looking really good.

GEM the pick of the main models this morning, here at T240: The others look OK, ECM maybe a tad disappointing, but only to be expected run to run variance at the range we are typically discussing.

The period of sunny, warm and then hot, weather has been nailed on for a while now so it’s merely a case of sorting the detail for the next few days. Currently the high pressure that is set to dominate the period is centred to the west over Ireland but over the next five days it will move east to be over the North Sea by midday Wednesday. During this progression temps will gradually rise before steadying. It's been a relatively clear night in many areas with some cloud around, consequently quite nippy in places ( see WV and chart for 0300). But it will soon warm up into pleasant sunny day, albeit a fair bit of Ci is forecast, born out possible by the 250mb humidity chart and a forecast sounding which is very moist in the upper troposphere. The exception being the north of Scotland and Shetland where it will be cooler with some patchy rain, courtesy some fronts trailing around the high. This will be the case for the rest of the weekend through Monday . Sunday similar but getting warmer and perhaps minus the Ci another sunny day on Monday and getting warmer, the usual caveat vis northern Scotland, but the high cell is nudged a tad further east under some pressure. By midday Tuesday the high cell is now over the North Sea courtesy of continued pressure from the west where the eastward movement of the trough has temporarily disrupted the north east ridging of the high pressure. Still a warm and sunny day for the UK, albeit the temps tending to plateau. Although another warm and sunny day is indicated for Wednesday the orientation of the high cell is now such that an E/SE wind component has been introduced and thus tending to the west/east split as cooler (relatively speaking) air is advected from the North Sea.

Hands up who thinks the pub run is wrong here: goes against all other model guidance, and the Met Office long ranger, and all common sense. Bin it.

Ay, good EC, perhaps less chance of north sea mist, hot sunny evening for our match v Belgium

21°C maxes sound lovely. Any more than that and shuggee gets grumpy.

The CET for this month is currently 15.8C, it will probably be the driest summer month since August 1995 for England and Wales and looks like being sunnier than average. You talk as if this we have not had a decent spell of weather until now and it looks like just a 5 day wonder when infact the weather has been pretty benign since the start of May.

Pretty good 12oz GFS very warm to hot which should keep most people should be okay with. Thee easterly breeze should mean nights are comfortable to sleep in as well. No sign of a breakdown with rain generally being away expect very deep in lala land where it plays around with Ireland and northern Scotland and perhaps the channel island. So guaranteed a one of the warmest Junes on record here and a dry one.

Walked the coastal path from Arbroath to Broughty Ferry. First half of the walk was cool, with thicker cloud and a stiff sea breeze but it warmed up nicely after Carnoustie with the sunshine now stronger.

Thanks @mb018538 for covering those clusters earlier! The 30th/1st/2nd, then, remain a point of divergence between a continuation of settled conditions and a temporary break (though hardly unsettled). This period has been well flagged for several days. The questions remaining are will the settled conditions end, and will the heat be over after next weekend? On the first question, all week the clusters have leant towards another settled week next week regardless of what happens at the weekend, and this morning was no different with positive anomalies generally in a good place for settled weather by D12 (except cluster 3 in the NW) : The second question on heat continuing is less easy. The ensemble mean for upper temps definitely peaks between D5 and D9, though still well above average until D15. I suspect that masks a variance between runs which introduce a westerly element (less hot) and those where pressure was strong enough to stave off the mini-breakdown, and therefore retaining heat for the UK. So some uncertainties over whether there'll be a break in the weather next weekend and if it will stay hot beyond that (not a done deal either way), but reasonable confidence in a decent week to begin July.

Right. Enough model watching and contributing towards this forum. I am signing off now for the rest of this week to enjoy the sun/warm weather. I hope you all enjoy the weather as well.

That level of temp in this country is really not ‘ good ‘ ...............

if people dont like heat, why do so many of us chose to holiday in the heat?... ive never heard of people holidaying in a frozen place simply to 'enjoy' the cold! (they go for winter sports, not for the cold per-se)

Why do folk, when the weather they crave for is occuring and looking to last at least 3-4 maybe 5 days do they show charts that predict this not being there beyond day 6? Beats me, other than some folk should get outside after turning their pc/laptop/mobile off. Similar in the winter as well. They seem unaware that we live in a Disturbed Maritime climate, which is a bit odd for folk living in this country. hey ho, it takes all sorts. https://www.google.com/search?q=disturnerd+maritime+climate&rls=com.microsoft:en-GB:IE-Address&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&sourceid=ie7&gws_rd=ssl

The latest anomaly charts and my comments overnight Friday into Saturday Friday-Saturday 22-23 June Noaa very ridged pattern and with upper low beneath; possible thundery outbreaks? Ec-gfs on sat show ec has dropped its large ridge/+ve heights and now shows a flat w’ly with only small height rises across uk and the cut off upper low still there; gfs has ridging but not like noaa. So overall 3 rather different patterns shown so best keep a watching brief for now! http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

Despite the usual moaning, from the usual suspects, the next few weeks' weather looks like being nothing short of superb: just as with much of the 1976 and 1995 heatwaves, very warm or hot days will mostly be offset by relatively cool, fresh nights...? IMO, those horribly humid 20C+ night-time minima of the past few years will be staying away, at least for the time-being...and even then, given that the late Spring/early Summer weather has been generally warmer this year anyway, we all ought to be somewhat more acclimatised to what's to come than is often the case? Anywho, with the unfortunate exception of those, like Markyo, who'll have to endure really unpleasant conditions whilst working, I can't see a single thing to moan about. Och well!

I don't know, Mushy - isn't huddling behind a windbreak, whilst wearing three layers of waterproof clothing, an integral part of the great British holiday experience? ?️

WARNING... enter the MAD thread with caution. Morning runs gone from “sun and heat, temps in low 30s” to “sun and heat, temps in high 20s” Another beautiful sunny morning here.

Still very likely to see low thirty's later next week in some Southern and central parts ! Also no breakdown in the foreseeable !

ECM also following suit - while its perfectly acceptable, it’s just not baking hot like yesterday. Warm to hot still very much on the cards, so nothing to get in a fluster about.

We are not going this year either.Instead staying at home scarifying neeps and making hay. Will do all the local shows later in the summer. Just think of all the money you are saving!!!! Currently big drops of rain and 11c

Rip see you again Summer soon maybe next year :(. But seriously, GFS 18z.... Pub Run.... enough said. It's like that GFS 12z run from the day before.

Summers over! (Sound of toys bouncing on ground from a now empty pram)

Well so far Spring/early summer has been nigh on perfect and very tolerable. Next week could push into the uncomfortable category particularly if humidity starts to rise. Some of the charts going for very high temperatures. Much rather prefer the warm but cooling breeze of today's weather.