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Showing content with the highest reputation on 23/06/18 in all areas

  1. 30 points
    Very reluctant, as ever, to make comment on intra day operational outputs at this distance which will inevitably change in detail every 6 to 12 hours, but the more hurried nature you refer to by Friday will be why virtually the whole of the UK mainland is still covered by > +10 850 upper temperatures by this time next week then If that is a 'breakdown' then I remain a very happy bunny... 🌞 A few things: - (apologies that a lot of this has been said before, but its the type of thing that gets ignored on this thread at any time of year when it applies to weather preference biases and sought after outcomes) 1) A non-NWP overview is a great help in being able to read between the lines and as a consequence not make knee jerk reactions and/or be irrationally surprised/disappointed by variance in operational/ensemble data. Not that these should be slavishy taken at face value anyway unless compared for trends over more than 24hrs. 2) Even then, its possible to compare trends of NWP ensemble suites (especially with the added helpful use of clusters being available ) with how they are matching up with tropical/extra tropical wind-flow changes that dictate the direction of travel of angular momentum. Angular momentum, in deliberately very simplified terms, and when applied to synoptic weather patterns - refers to the turning force of the Jetstream as measured by torque mechanisms that change the trajectory and strength of wind-flows. This, once more grossly over-simplified, in turn is therefore a very useful guide as to whether the pattern ebbs or flows - i.e there is forward momentum ...or some retrogression 4) With that in mind, best to think of NWP at the moment as a constantly updated re-calculation of ebbing/decelerating wind inertia from upstream (retrogressive cooler solutions when applied in the current circumstances in the Atlantic and European sector) ; and flowing higher momentum solutions from upstream that keep ridging extended more strongly downstream and the cooler air boundary at higher latitudes (warmer or 'hotter' air advection solutions) Attempted suggestions of how these may play out are endlessly discussed in these updates. On that basis, there is less room to be surprised (or disappointed) by the ever varying solutions that come into view. So, some truncated GSDM (Global Synoptic Dynamical Model) analysis kept as short as possible: GLAAM is currently a little below average with tropical forcing over the Western Hemisphere and waiting for signal to move forward and re-boot angular momentum tendency which is also below average We are benefitting, in terms of anomalous ridging, from a legacy of a strong injection of +AAM anomalies across the Pacific c/o the convectively coupled kelvin wave that recently initiated in the Eastern Pacific and has subsequently migrated eastwards across the Atlantic to Africa. With angular momentum held back (currently) it is inevitable that some discontinuous retrogression of the sub tropical ridging will occur and a suggestion of a split of the anticyclone appear on its eastern perimeters. Clearly shown on some NWP today for example. However, with the medium longer term signal still very much in the opposite gear of a more hostile environment for attempted Nina (retrogressive) type forcing then its only a matter of time before the tropics start to force the changing Pacific pattern (sub water warming c/o another oceanic kelvin wave that has begun) and imprint this on the atmosphere. This is supportive in my opinion to prospects heading towards mid summer and especially beyond. In the shorter term, the heat-pump cut-off features that keep underpinning this sub tropical ridging and have been regular enough features of the late Spring and the summer season so far and are going to make it hard for any attempted cooler air to make it too far south before the whole pattern re-sets from upstream. I think that the medium term models are starting to grapple with this already *see start of post* There is plenty of good discussion usually provided on the clusters. But as another way of illustrating the same model suite, the latest graphical depiction of ECM ensembles for London also illustrate the sustained warm/very warm trend and probable difficulty in cooler air getting established (sustainably) very far south. Usually folk would fall off a perch in delight with a set of data like this appearing for as much as two weeks ahead Just my little suggestion-box bit, but it could well be that the theme of the summer is for initial sub tropical forcing c/o the Azores High (ebbing and flowing) gets replaced by focus of ridging to the east as the season matures>onwards and a more defined trough in the Atlantic appears (feeding Iberian heat pump features as energy disrupts SE). This is a more obvious +ve AAM driven (Nino-like) summer pattern and entails plenty of hot southerlies/southeasterlies punctuated by thundery sequence re-sets - as you were. This is the UK, and the best summers will always have 'lull' phases before re-loading. But there are days of truly amazing weather ahead to enjoy - and best enjoyed out there away from worrying about every intra-day output spoiling the enjoyment of outdoor relaxation and enjoyment
  2. 24 points
    For sure, no heat at all, and total garbage - just maxes into the high twenties and high pressure in charge right the way up to about 200 hours+. Some perspective needed perhaps?
  3. 13 points
    Just to help you out here in terms of model watching - in case this is fairly new to you, or anyone else. A change at 120/144 to the details, such as temperature etc, is not a 'huge downgrade'. It's something which is going to happen run to run, a tiny change in the positioning of the high pressure can change the wind direction and therefore change the temperatures. Following the models at that range in that amount of detail is fair enough in some respects, if you enjoy watching what they're doing, but reacting to them with this upgrade/downgrade stuff constantly is over the top. My advice would be to stop, but if people want to do that, then the model banter thread is the best place for it.
  4. 13 points
    The Models this morning continue to show a very warm and sometimes hot week ahead, With temps in the high 20's & turning hotter as the week progresses, With temps touching 30c by Friday as shown by the Net-Wx MR model. Time to get the Summer hat out..
  5. 13 points
    Not sure how folk can complain about days on end of 25-30c and blue skies but hey ho ! Personally i'll be in the beer garden watching the world cup 🙂
  6. 11 points
    25-27C is average then is it? Could do without the ridiculous OTT reactions to every model run, especially when your information is incorrect and misleading. It's a little down on yesterday's blowtorch runs but temperatures will still be well above average and potentially hot especially further south. It's nowhere near a 'huge downgrade'.
  7. 10 points
    Yep, incredible flip - I mean a model showing some showers at 168 hours or so, which means temperatures are lower in a few counties is exceptional, usually they're all identical at that range with this sort of stuff, surely? What next, another 'incredible flip' on the next run when those showers are gone, or have moved elsewhere? I do wonder about the motives of this sort of post, I guess I've given you the reaction you're maybe after though, oops.
  8. 9 points
    Anyone expecting the models to show an endless heatwave every run is setting themselves up for disappointment but the week ahead looks amazing and longer term both the GEFS / ECM 00z mean indicate plenty more from the azores high / ridge going further into July.
  9. 9 points
    Only on here could output like we currently have elicit disappointment ! Five clusters in the 10/14 day on yesterday’s 12z eps so a little more uncertainty but no sign that the generally warm and settled outlook is under much threat. The Wimbledon grass might be looking pretty burned by the finals weekend .....
  10. 8 points
    Well for starters, where is this 20c swing in the SW next Saturday? This is the 06z, granted a bit cooler down the east coast (that change in wind direction caused by a relatively small shift in the high pressure's position), but the SW has moved a few degrees, and this over a week away. 00z 06z I assume you're looking at Sunday rather than Saturday (just the odd 200 hours ahead), and yeah, the one very cool spot is SW/CS England and it is all about the position of the showers and cloudcover being modelled. Other parts, still well into the twenties.. But again, we're miles ahead, talking about a single model run and looking at details such as showers / differences in temperatures which are bound to change run to run. Nothing wrong in discussing it, but this ott, at times provocative and overly dramatic language to describe these changes is grating, tiring and off putting when it comes to those wanting to get involved in these discussions. So, if drama is your thing, please use the banter thread.
  11. 7 points
    Those all important ECM cluster ensembles....fair to say there's a lot of chaos. Even at 144 hours there's differences. All high pressure based, but with subtle differences that will affect the temperatures. Cluster 1 closely matches the OP today, and that is the slightly more favoured option - but not massively so at 29%. The other clusters look better to be honest. By 192 hours it's a complete mess, and when you tend to see a lot of equally divided clusters it doesn't really fill you with much confidence: By day 10 there are unsettled options starting to appear: Not worth looking beyond here - the clusters are all over the place. Best to get the here and now sorted before worrying about early July.
  12. 5 points
    The GEFS 6z mean looks great, especially for southern uk longer term..and next week looks amazing..not a piece of garbage to be seen!
  13. 5 points
    No model is going to show endless days of persistent heatwave action run after run after run, this is the UK not the canaries. The models will always backtrack then leap forwards then backtrack again as they struggle with positioning of the high. Even July 2003 and 2006 the models were struggling on the timing of the heat, uppers etc etc. Be grateful for this Sypnotic pattern and be thankful we're not under 2012 patterns
  14. 5 points
    Don't worry folks, NAVGEM is still going mid thirties for the latter half of the week, and we're close to 100f again by Thursday! http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgem/runs/2018062300/navgemfr-8-138.png?23-08
  15. 4 points
    Yes I couldn't believe what I was reading on here earlier..it was as if next week's heat had been cancelled..happy to report it hasn't been and the mean is looking really good.
  16. 4 points
    GEM the pick of the main models this morning, here at T240: The others look OK, ECM maybe a tad disappointing, but only to be expected run to run variance at the range we are typically discussing.
  17. 4 points
    The period of sunny, warm and then hot, weather has been nailed on for a while now so it’s merely a case of sorting the detail for the next few days. Currently the high pressure that is set to dominate the period is centred to the west over Ireland but over the next five days it will move east to be over the North Sea by midday Wednesday. During this progression temps will gradually rise before steadying. It's been a relatively clear night in many areas with some cloud around, consequently quite nippy in places ( see WV and chart for 0300). But it will soon warm up into pleasant sunny day, albeit a fair bit of Ci is forecast, born out possible by the 250mb humidity chart and a forecast sounding which is very moist in the upper troposphere. The exception being the north of Scotland and Shetland where it will be cooler with some patchy rain, courtesy some fronts trailing around the high. This will be the case for the rest of the weekend through Monday . Sunday similar but getting warmer and perhaps minus the Ci another sunny day on Monday and getting warmer, the usual caveat vis northern Scotland, but the high cell is nudged a tad further east under some pressure. By midday Tuesday the high cell is now over the North Sea courtesy of continued pressure from the west where the eastward movement of the trough has temporarily disrupted the north east ridging of the high pressure. Still a warm and sunny day for the UK, albeit the temps tending to plateau. Although another warm and sunny day is indicated for Wednesday the orientation of the high cell is now such that an E/SE wind component has been introduced and thus tending to the west/east split as cooler (relatively speaking) air is advected from the North Sea.
  18. 4 points
    Hands up who thinks the pub run is wrong here: goes against all other model guidance, and the Met Office long ranger, and all common sense. Bin it.
  19. 4 points
    Thursday could be an interesting day, 30C forecast by the GFS in the north of Scotland, possible Fohn effect from the mountains? Add on a couple of degrees for the GFS always underestimating temps and we're not far away from an all time Scottish record. The charts are epic for the next ten days, this is the summer equivalent of the winter charts we've not long seen the back of. I know not everyone got lucky in winter but it's hard getting it right for all of us. Even the current charts look a bit iffy at times for some of us, a good case is the one I've posted here which shows it a lot cooler along the east coast.
  20. 3 points
    Gfs 06z is garbage at times, while maybe an outlier (or not) it has maxes next Saturday almost 20c lower in the southwest than last night with parts of Dorset/Wilts/Somerset stuck under a disturbance and maxes of an incredibly low 12c.....incredible flip......
  21. 3 points
    Right. Enough model watching and contributing towards this forum. I am signing off now for the rest of this week to enjoy the sun/warm weather. I hope you all enjoy the weather as well.
  22. 3 points
    That level of temp in this country is really not ‘ good ‘ ...............
  23. 3 points
    if people dont like heat, why do so many of us chose to holiday in the heat?... ive never heard of people holidaying in a frozen place simply to 'enjoy' the cold! (they go for winter sports, not for the cold per-se)
  24. 2 points
    Why do folk, when the weather they crave for is occuring and looking to last at least 3-4 maybe 5 days do they show charts that predict this not being there beyond day 6? Beats me, other than some folk should get outside after turning their pc/laptop/mobile off. Similar in the winter as well. They seem unaware that we live in a Disturbed Maritime climate, which is a bit odd for folk living in this country. hey ho, it takes all sorts. https://www.google.com/search?q=disturnerd+maritime+climate&rls=com.microsoft:en-GB:IE-Address&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&sourceid=ie7&gws_rd=ssl
  25. 2 points
    Despite the usual moaning, from the usual suspects, the next few weeks' weather looks like being nothing short of superb: just as with much of the 1976 and 1995 heatwaves, very warm or hot days will mostly be offset by relatively cool, fresh nights...? IMO, those horribly humid 20C+ night-time minima of the past few years will be staying away, at least for the time-being...and even then, given that the late Spring/early Summer weather has been generally warmer this year anyway, we all ought to be somewhat more acclimatised to what's to come than is often the case? Anywho, with the unfortunate exception of those, like Markyo, who'll have to endure really unpleasant conditions whilst working, I can't see a single thing to moan about. Och well!
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