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Showing most liked content on 23/06/18 in all areas

  1. 24 likes
    For sure, no heat at all, and total garbage - just maxes into the high twenties and high pressure in charge right the way up to about 200 hours+. Some perspective needed perhaps?
  2. 13 likes
    The Models this morning continue to show a very warm and sometimes hot week ahead, With temps in the high 20's & turning hotter as the week progresses, With temps touching 30c by Friday as shown by the Net-Wx MR model. Time to get the Summer hat out..
  3. 10 likes
    Yep, incredible flip - I mean a model showing some showers at 168 hours or so, which means temperatures are lower in a few counties is exceptional, usually they're all identical at that range with this sort of stuff, surely? What next, another 'incredible flip' on the next run when those showers are gone, or have moved elsewhere? I do wonder about the motives of this sort of post, I guess I've given you the reaction you're maybe after though, oops.
  4. 9 likes
    Only on here could output like we currently have elicit disappointment ! Five clusters in the 10/14 day on yesterday’s 12z eps so a little more uncertainty but no sign that the generally warm and settled outlook is under much threat. The Wimbledon grass might be looking pretty burned by the finals weekend .....
  5. 6 likes
    Minimal risk of any rain for a week at least, warm to hot days and fairly comfortable nights for sleeping for most? (aside from Thursday perhaps) Sounds like perfect summer weather to me . Maybe yesterdays output was too hot. I only like extreme heat if its got the storm potential to go with it. I reckon somewhere will still get past 30C in the next week though, 32C at a push with the most likely day being Thursday. And to think of how bad the weather was back in 2012...
  6. 4 likes
    Hands up who thinks the pub run is wrong here: goes against all other model guidance, and the Met Office long ranger, and all common sense. Bin it.
  7. 3 likes
    Ay, good EC, perhaps less chance of north sea mist, hot sunny evening for our match v Belgium
  8. 3 likes
    Thanks @mb018538 for covering those clusters earlier! The 30th/1st/2nd, then, remain a point of divergence between a continuation of settled conditions and a temporary break (though hardly unsettled). This period has been well flagged for several days. The questions remaining are will the settled conditions end, and will the heat be over after next weekend? On the first question, all week the clusters have leant towards another settled week next week regardless of what happens at the weekend, and this morning was no different with positive anomalies generally in a good place for settled weather by D12 (except cluster 3 in the NW) : The second question on heat continuing is less easy. The ensemble mean for upper temps definitely peaks between D5 and D9, though still well above average until D15. I suspect that masks a variance between runs which introduce a westerly element (less hot) and those where pressure was strong enough to stave off the mini-breakdown, and therefore retaining heat for the UK. So some uncertainties over whether there'll be a break in the weather next weekend and if it will stay hot beyond that (not a done deal either way), but reasonable confidence in a decent week to begin July.
  9. 3 likes
    My wife really enjoys it. She is going with one daughter and the other is working on a stall. Temp has hit 20C here now in the sunshine.
  10. 3 likes
    Gfs 06z is garbage at times, while maybe an outlier (or not) it has maxes next Saturday almost 20c lower in the southwest than last night with parts of Dorset/Wilts/Somerset stuck under a disturbance and maxes of an incredibly low 12c.....incredible flip......
  11. 3 likes
    It's something I have often wondered about - some scientists will say that everything we see about us happened by accident starting with the 'Big Bang' but for these things happen according to the various laws of science, physics, chemistry and biology combine in the overall rules of nature. But the question I keep coming back to is who or what formulated all these rules in the first place? I can't help but think that there must be some kind of intelligent process behind it all. This takes me on to other dimensions, further than the normal 4 we experience in everyday life - serious scientists are now postulating that there are many dimensions and are also speaking of multiverses as opposed to just one universe. Apart from theorising about them we do not really have any clues as to their nature, content or even if the laws which apply to our universe and dimension apply in a similar fashion to these others. All this leads to conclude that as far as total knowledge is concerned, we only know a very tiny fraction of all there is to know. Though I expect with time and research scientists will start to uncover the answers to some of these questions and suspect that some answers we get will surprise us. I would love to be there to see it happen but it is likely to be far beyond the scope of my life time. But it is also worth bearing in mind the ancients were not as daft as we may think - ancient Greeks decided that the Earth was round and it travelled around the Sun, they also spoke of a granular matter, which we now recognise as atoms, they also spoke of other forces which we now recognise as electro magnetic and gravitational forces and all this was some 2500 years ago. The history of man has been going on though process of gaining and losing knowledge - what else did the ancients know which we have not fully investigated to date? There is a pretty well universal belief in a supreme being many refer to as God, does he exist or doesn't he, many different peoples often well separated from others came up with the same ideas independently. Was it a way of trying to explain the unknowable, or did they actually tune into something? If when reach the end of our lives we find ourselves in another place and still able to think and operate we would then know that there is a lot more to everything than what we previously thought. On the other hand everything may go black and we would not even have the consciousness to perceive that - none of us will really know until it happens. Yet, I suspect it may well be the former - if you look at nature, nothing is ever wasted, it is transformed, yes but not wasted. The same could happen with our accumulated knowledge gathered over a life time, there may be some way of preserving that, so that may mean life after death after all. As to the different religions, man may have got an inkling of what an actual God could be, or what they think He is, but most religions were man made centred around the kernel of an idea but mostly devised as a means of political control and if we wish to get to the truth we have to fight our way though this extraneous fog which tends to distort the picture.
  12. 2 likes
  13. 2 likes
    Still musing on the Azores ridging thing, here's some output at T240 from today, GFS, GEM, ECM ensemble mean, FIM9: Actually the ECM mean is probably the least optimistic. The rest all show substantial ridging from the Azores. I think it may take a couple of days yet before we can have confidence that this current setup will have longevity. Hope it does!
  14. 2 likes
    Well done ANTONYBR7 another exciting fantasy competition, looking forward to the Wimbledon competition and any other future fantasy competitions, well done and thanks again to @TomSE12 fantastic job hosting and updating results/winnings
  15. 2 likes
    ECM following UKMO quite closely, at a guess it could be Thursday for the warmest day? A very decent week coming up for sure.
  16. 2 likes
    Sun, sun and more sun and the outlook is for more sun, so sun is the main theme of the weather
  17. 2 likes
    I was near you until today, tomorrow could make a big difference, good luck.
  18. 1 like
    I was also going to post that you can see the change for example by comparing last night's t t+144 (or even t+120) to today's 12z t+126 (or t+102) At that range with all models similar you can sort of be forgiven for believing it. Now the high is orientated less favourably and weaker, and open to lasting less long. Hopefully it's not a precedent, I've known downgrades like this to seem like a theme for the season. ECM ensembles far less good than last nights, that also had +14C 850's in the south at t+216. Today's have lost the +12 line by T+168, almost t+144. Also, the Met Office only forecasting 20C here from Wednesday's chart (which looks good still) ! The highest is 25/24C on Thursday/Friday. So unless they are significantly overestimating the effect of sea breezes etc, it looks like I may only get a few 'very warm' days anyway. The North coast is forecast to be a lot warmer of course. I haven't reached 30C here in my records starting in 2007. We are often moderated by the sea but it's still about time it happened. Hopefully this post ends up looking a bit silly and we get a great spell and/or summer. Sometimes does seem like there's a lot of 'fair weather' folk about, nothing wrong with that of course but surely they can understand us finding extremes interesting.
  19. 1 like
  20. 1 like
  21. 1 like
    Pretty standard stuff though, even in the premier league sometimes. You see some better football watching non league part timers sometimes.
  22. 1 like
    Always amuses me when they clutch the wrong part of the body. Unfortunately at some point a player will die as a ref won't see quickly enough how series an injury is and thinks the player is play acting.
  23. 1 like
    Still cool here in the mountains at 1670m absl. Presently 8 c with a lot of sheet cloud. Heating on this evening. Looking forward to watching the cricket tomorrow on sat TV from a sunny Manchester ? C
  24. 1 like
  25. 1 like
    Thanks and thanks for your time and effort over the past few days.
  26. 1 like
    I bet you posted this with a big smirk on your face.
  27. 1 like
    Yeah I'm not particularly looking forward to the projected heat this week given I have a chronic breathing problem. The warmth we've had so far has been fine but anything above 25 and I feel it in a bad way.
  28. 1 like
    A drop of 5-7C at the 120 / 144 is a huge downgrade in terms of temps. For the SE anyway.
  29. 1 like
    Downgrade yes, but not entirely unexpected - still wasn’t universal agreement on that very hot set up. Anyway, there are still very hot gfs ensemble members, and I’ll guess ecm members too, so it could change again by the 12z
  30. 1 like
    Need the laughing emoji back.
  31. 1 like
    Yep, that's why I asked, thought it looked familiar. I lived in Folkestone for a few months last year, the kids loved walking down that path to the play area, well I say walking, they found ways to climb down while I walked around.
  32. 1 like
    I do confess that my toys would have been poised had that chart been at 144!
  33. 1 like
    What a lovely spell this is going to be. I’m glad it hasn’t downgraded again and seems to only look more settled and warm. The prospect of no rain for 10+ days is blissful. But saying that, it’s been very dry for some time now. This spring and into summer has been the best for some time. I can only see it getting better and think we’re in for some real heat and sun this summer. Smacks of 2006/2013 to me.
  34. 1 like
    NAVGEM strikes again. 36c in Ireland, 20c in Morocco. Sure
  35. 1 like
    This is something that is oft repeated and would just like to make it plain, yet again, that I do not, nor ever have had an issue with peoples preferences. But i do have an issue when they misuse these preferences, not only to the determent of the thread by posting a load of insensitive drivel such as earlier in the year, but more to the point, they treat anybody who dares to challenge this ethos as pariahs and idiots as if only they have a divine right to an opinion
  36. 1 like
  37. 1 like
    We got up to 19.7C but it has clouded over again and now back to 17.9C. I a, hoping that the sun manages to break through again tomorrow. If not I have always got the football as my wife is off to the Highland Show.
  38. 1 like
    Next week is indeed starting to look very interesting, especially midweek and beyond. Although I tend to wilt somewhat in hot conditions, I do prefer my seasons to be extremes overall i.e. cold & snowy winters vs hot and thundery summers. 2018 is putting a lot of ticks in a lot of boxes so far! Bish
  39. 1 like
    Sun is out here now too and temperature is up to 19c
  40. 1 like
    Are we going to get above 20C next week? Apps seem programmed to a old ever going that high - I've lost count of the number of times they only update once the temp is already past 20C!
  41. 1 like
    The cloud pretty much broke up here by lunchtime. Temp 17.9C which feels pleasant enough in the sunshine. Still a fresh breeze from the NW.
  42. 1 like
    Went to the beach on this wonderful day and took some photos
  43. 1 like
    Whilst sitting down at the beach this morning having an ice cream I was musing over the possible complications forecasting the max temps next week as one does on a Friday morning. My thinking was along these lines There are normally four prerequisite conditions for very hot weather in the British Isles (loosely, maxima of 33–34 °C or above): (i) An established high soil moisture deficit (dry soil absorbs less solar radiation in evaporating moisture, leaving more energy available as sensible heat). (ii) A high solar angle. (iii) A warm anticyclone allowing a feed of warm air from a hot Continent on a south or south-easterly flow. (iv) Anticyclonic subsidence ‘capping’ vertical mixing of strongly heated surface air. The first three are okay and if the high cell parks itself over the UK for three or four days then we could easily get very dry subsided air not far aloft which could well reach the surface following entrainment owing to boundary layer turbulence. This turbulence comes about because the strong surface heating causes dry convection and this would have the effect of extending the boundary layer higher than normal. Thus in certain hot spots the max could well be higher than expected Anyway, that's this morning's thoughts from Portreath
  44. 1 like
    A cloudy and breezy start but clouds cleared and winds just about disappeared superb afternoon and we just getting started too
  45. 1 like
    Here you go Mushy.. http://www.spaceweather.com
  46. 1 like
  47. 1 like
    I really hate it when all the beautiful green countryside turns brown, especially so early in the Summer. I'd love to see some rain in the outlook Often hot weather leads to thunderstorms, what kind of synoptics would we need for that to happen? At the moment it just looks dry dry dry.
  48. 1 like
    Exactly! The fact that a few of the nasty (and the lovely) things that have happened have been exploited by the various God Squads, throughout the ages, doesn't say a single thing that would make me believe in any form of 'Higher Being'... IMO, High Priests were and are are simply an archaic form of politician...And, given the widespread 'religious' opposition to all things gay, birth control and such, some folks may also - quite rightly IMO - call them 'shysters'? And, aye. As Bob Dylan did point out: when it comes to warfare, God is indeed 'on [everybody's] side'! Anywho, chaps and chapesses, that's me for this one.
  49. 1 like
    Hi Guys Next week is looking VERY active. After all meeting on Saturday we will be making our way East towards Kansas for what looks like a May Type Tornado Set-Up. Monday also looks very active in N Central Kansas, not going any further with risks at this point but looking very good. Regards Paul
  50. 1 like
    Why are people so fixated by hitting 35-36-37-38 degrees? All I care about is these are the best summer model runs for quite a while. Anything sunny and in 20s is comfortable enough for BBQs and any other out door activity. I’d rather have lower temperature that lasted for longer than scoring 38 degrees followed by thundery breakdown.
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