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Showing content with the highest reputation on 18/06/18 in all areas

  1. 16 points
    Based on non-NWP data, I have been cautious about the retrogression signal c/o falling atmospheric angular momentum this week, so do understand any caution also expressed in NWP terms - as whole suites can, on occasion, flip when upstream signals are not clear However, though you do describe pleasant weather in the offing, I also think your choice of terminology rather detracts from that by over dramatizing and over emphasising the downsides of the synoptic response to the slightly retrogressive signal this week. One might for forgiven for almost thinking a wintry squally mix was being ushered in by this weeks cold front reading your description When in fact bar a few (rain) showers in the east on Thursday, there looks to be increasing amounts of sunshine and temperatures on the rise once again. This is taking NWP as an overview and not unnecessary face value dissection of individual operational intra day output. Previous posts spoke of the hope that this "lull" atmospheric angular momentum phase would continue the theme of being shallower than the last. This is proving to be the case, and based on continuing favourable upstream support in the Pacific, the Global Wind Oscillation represents a very weak, almost indeterminate, Phase 1/2 signal currently - which endorses the watered down east Atlantic ridge/downstream trough scenario of this week The coolest air advection associated with the synoptic response to this looks set to be steered into the nearby continent to our east. I think that the ensemble members for The Netherlands, but more especially further east in Berlin and Warsaw illustrate this drop clearly. The extent of the cooler interlude is put into good perspective in London - with daytime temperatures for the latter part of the week close to normal and feeing warm in sunshine. So nothing especially "potent" suggested In any case, all localities reflect the transitory nature of the cooler interlude with considerable warm-ups thereafter. These represent very encouraging ensemble sets and as others have demonstrated well through use of the clusters, once the usual eccentric members are taken out of the equation, very good agreement for the extended period that most should be only very happy with as summer gathers her momentum No further commentary to be added on previous recent analysis here - based on the tropical signal, the considerable changes happening in the Pacific clearly representing a shift in regime, there is good support for continued ridging and any retrogressive/lowering of the jet signal restricted to temporary incursions furthest north and west. In any event, Bournemouth is probably set very fair and warm, as are many British cities, and unlikely that contingency energy supplies are going to have to be drawn up with the National Grid just yet
  2. 11 points
    EC clusters D8-D15: Potential Heatwave Alert!!! Last night's D10 clusters: This morning's D10 clusters It's one way traffic. Those red zones indicate much higher heights than usual, and they're all in good positions to make the UK hot. EC mean 850s - on the brunnur site the bottom of the UK gets cut off but it's pretty obvious what's being missed out - the 10C upper line hits the midlands by D8, gets up to Scotland by D12, and is still over the south by D15 (look closely at the bottom corner). That's 7 consecutive days. At the end of June, that should mean 24C-30C if low pressure muck doesn't infiltrate from France (like at the end of May). But the clusters don't really go for this Biscay/French low this time e.g. T300: And the final lump of cream on top: of course, we know that on an anomalously high mean chart, the median will usually be even higher than the mean. Suggesting the middle ground may be even hotter than mean uppers charts propose. I've seen enough. I'm ramping. edit: @mb018538 you beat me to it
  3. 9 points
    Good news from 00z ECM ens it supports the idea of high-pressure rebuilding from later this week and temperatures will start to respond very nicely as well
  4. 7 points
    good news too from the noaa anomaly charts which support pressure gradually ridging in off the displacing azores high. however i dont think they support (yet at least) some of the ecm's stronger builds as we keep a (slacker) flow from the westerly quardant. interestingly theres hints of pressure dropping over biscay. so a plume event later next week is a possibility with temps soaring along with humidity. but thats dependent on the expected ridging continuing its slow easterly track. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php its also looking dry, very dry in fact after wednesday. at this rate ill be seeing brown lawns for the first time in 12 years.
  5. 6 points
    GFS/UKMO and GEM at day 6 Solid UK based high on both here, the UKMO starting to dig cold air towards that low west of Iberia which would be a classic precursor to some serious heat spreading north into northern Europe as we went further. The GFS looks better than the 06z run and crucially both are starting to drift towards a solution by the ECM suite this morning. The end of the week still looks quite cool for the time of year but temperatures should recover by the weekend and into the following week.
  6. 6 points
    Belting UKMO run tonight - high pressure really in control at 144
  7. 6 points
    How about this for a corker of ECM ensembles. A week today - nothing other than a large ridge over the UK, just slight variations of the position. Day 10 still looking great, every cluster remaining high pressure based. It's not until right at the end of the run that anything unsettled starts to emerge, but even then 50% of the members are still settled.
  8. 6 points
    Cracking morning run from ECM. Fine, warm and dry for most. The end of the run is particularly stunning with temps quite widely into the thirties by 216-240. All fi of course but nice to see anyway. Weekend looks warm and sunny for many. Temps low twenties. Maybe mid twenties by Sunday. Lovely
  9. 6 points
    Although the increasing influence of high pressure over most of the UK is pretty much nailed down in the medium term, the actual development of the upper ridge, and thus the surface high cell still remains to be resolved. This is important because although, fairly obviously, light winds and lack of precipitation are the percentage play, regional variations of temperature and cloud can be critically dependent on the position of the surface high. With that in mind it’s worthwhile keeping an eye on this from an early stage. At the moment the GEFS and EPS are in the same ball park, but not in detail, with the general theme being ridging in mid Atlantic drifting east over time. This, for example from the EPS, would mean the high cell drifting across central and southern England eventually leading to a southerly drift before giving way a more westerly regime. But that is getting too far ahead of ourselves for the moment as slight variations on this can make a vast difference. Currently in the short term a N/S split seems likely with any systems nipping around the ridge to the west in the north westerly upper flow. meanwhile................... The cloud and patchy rain/drizzle associated with fronts from the deep depression to the north west have slowly drifted east leaving a clear night for western areas and the cloud only still effecting the central and south eastern areas of England. This will slowly clear here during the morning giving way to a sunny and quite warm day, particularly in the south east but more cloud and patchy rain will move into north western areas later and then spreading a south east as the next system moves in from the Atlantic. Quite a temp variation either side of the front The south east will stay clear during the evening but come Tuesday morning cloud and patchy rain will cover Wales and England from the Midlands south as the front stalls and temps today in this area are very dependent on whether the sun can break through for any length of time. The front has stalled due to another wave forming on it to west which is tracking north east which in turn brings more cloud and rain to north western areas, and later in the day in general to northern areas as the front returns northwards. By Wednesday the high pressure (as mentioned earlier) is starting to amplify in mid Atlantic but for the moment most of the UK remains in a cool showery regime as the front slips south again except that is for the south east which could well be quite warm and muggy. Again marked NW/SE temp contrasts either side of the front. By Thursday the high cell has tracked east over the UK so some variable cloud and some showers along east coastal regions but generally a reasonable warm day. Ditto Friday but perhaps sunnier and less likelihood of showers with temps a tad higher The rainfall distribution is another indication of the pattern tending to a N/S split
  10. 6 points
    For Friday highest pressure looks set to be centred over western and south-western Britain, although I think the GFS may be overdoing its central pressure, comparing with the UKMO and ECMWF which have it at nearer 1030mb. I expect that this will mean plenty of warm sunshine for western areas but with that northerly flow eastern areas will probably be somewhat cloudier with isolated showers, probably stratocumulus trapped underneath a cap. Not sure about the posts referencing only weak ridges of high pressure - the UKMO admittedly has rather tentative ridging with westerlies over the top of the high which would promote a north-south split, but the GFS and especially ECMWF have a high of around 1025-1028mb central pressure sitting over a large portion of the UK around days 7-10. I would expect the cloud in eastern areas to dissipate in that setup with a large majority of the country seeing warm sunshine. The latter stages of the ECMWF run look potentially hot and thundery which is an outcome that I've been envisaging for late-June for some time, although my confidence in the hot thundery scenario is waning with a good chance of the high being too strong.
  11. 6 points
    I honestly don't understand the negativity in here, both the GEFS / ECM 12z mean show a fantastic extended outlook, you would struggle to find a better Ecm 12z ensemble mean than what I've posted above which indicates a nationwide summery spell on the way..Even before then, southern areas will see 25c tomorrow and 26 / 27c on tues / wed across the s / se....I'm hoping the met office are right, if they are there's lots to look forward to in the weeks ahead for those of us who love summery weather!
  12. 5 points
    Cracking 00z from ECM with high pressure starting to dominate once more it get's progressively warmer as the run progresses
  13. 4 points
    Interesting on the GFS 18z ensemble mean, we're through to T336, and there's a signal for higher pressure just to the east of the UK: This is what we want to see more of to land some decent hot summery spells. Hopefully a lobe of high pressure breaks off to the east of us as part of the Azores high ridging. I think this scenario growing in likelihood.
  14. 4 points
    GFS 18z, well the evolution in the later stages is interesting, high cantered out west to start with, moves east, and then combines with new link up with the Azores: All in all, good runs today, roll on tomorrow.
  15. 3 points
    These plots have their limitations, but at least I can show you that ECMF has moved toward the enthusiastic output from CANM with respect to the MJO propagation during the next week. Still much more adjustment needed before it starts to look properly promising, but it's a start . Overall, today has brought a bit of good news with respect to longer-term prospects. Long may that continue .
  16. 3 points
    ITV are so bad at football coverage. I would rather they just showed adverts for 15 mins at HT.
  17. 2 points
  18. 2 points
    Yep nice sunny and warm afternoon, is it to much to ask, for the misty murk that does nothing for anything just goes until winter now please. Proper rain is welcome, just not all the time.
  19. 2 points
    00z GFS run is very dry for England and Wales right out to D10 even in Scotland and NI it isn't exceptionally wet but enough rain to stop the grass going brown
  20. 2 points
    there's an extra "o" in your question, answer is yes!
  21. 2 points
    Just to show how quickly things can change as well....4 days ago at 240 hours, we had these options: None of which really translate to the 168 hour charts generated today really. Fast moving game this weather lark.
  22. 2 points
    Pleasant enough in Leith - 15C and a wee bit of blue sky about. Drizzle was threatening around Penicuik on the way in, but fine now.
  23. 2 points
    Weirdly, Glenn Hoddle kept going on about players "not losing their heads" during the Saudi Arabia game. But Hoddle is weird, I suppose.
  24. 2 points
    The Ecm 12z ensemble mean again turns into a fantastic run for summer warmth and settled weather.
  25. 2 points
    Random butterfly pics: Small Heath White Admiral Holly Blue
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