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Showing most liked content on 18/06/18 in all areas

  1. 11 likes
    EC clusters D8-D15: Potential Heatwave Alert!!! Last night's D10 clusters: This morning's D10 clusters It's one way traffic. Those red zones indicate much higher heights than usual, and they're all in good positions to make the UK hot. EC mean 850s - on the brunnur site the bottom of the UK gets cut off but it's pretty obvious what's being missed out - the 10C upper line hits the midlands by D8, gets up to Scotland by D12, and is still over the south by D15 (look closely at the bottom corner). That's 7 consecutive days. At the end of June, that should mean 24C-30C if low pressure muck doesn't infiltrate from France (like at the end of May). But the clusters don't really go for this Biscay/French low this time e.g. T300: And the final lump of cream on top: of course, we know that on an anomalously high mean chart, the median will usually be even higher than the mean. Suggesting the middle ground may be even hotter than mean uppers charts propose. I've seen enough. I'm ramping. edit: @mb018538 you beat me to it
  2. 9 likes
    Good news from 00z ECM ens it supports the idea of high-pressure rebuilding from later this week and temperatures will start to respond very nicely as well
  3. 8 likes
    Stunningly Beautiful Ecm 12z..who wants boring average summer conditions when you could have this?..really exciting times for summer heat lovers!
  4. 7 likes
    good news too from the noaa anomaly charts which support pressure gradually ridging in off the displacing azores high. however i dont think they support (yet at least) some of the ecm's stronger builds as we keep a (slacker) flow from the westerly quardant. interestingly theres hints of pressure dropping over biscay. so a plume event later next week is a possibility with temps soaring along with humidity. but thats dependent on the expected ridging continuing its slow easterly track. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php its also looking dry, very dry in fact after wednesday. at this rate ill be seeing brown lawns for the first time in 12 years.
  5. 6 likes
    Add into the mix the ICON at T180, and I'm starting to think that on the back of the 0z ECM and ensembles we may see a settled full house in the 12s at least out to day 10, or as far as the models go, here's hoping:
  6. 6 likes
    Belting UKMO run tonight - high pressure really in control at 144
  7. 6 likes
    I honestly don't understand the negativity in here, both the GEFS / ECM 12z mean show a fantastic extended outlook, you would struggle to find a better Ecm 12z ensemble mean than what I've posted above which indicates a nationwide summery spell on the way..Even before then, southern areas will see 25c tomorrow and 26 / 27c on tues / wed across the s / se....I'm hoping the met office are right, if they are there's lots to look forward to in the weeks ahead for those of us who love summery weather!
  8. 5 likes
    The best way to describe the ECM mean tonight is stunning More upgrades in the coming days hopefully
  9. 5 likes
    Absolutely stunning 12z ECM once again. Words alone cannot describe how good this run is again! Builds the high in very quickly after a slightly cooler Interlude on Thursday with temps well into twenties again by the Sunday. The latter stages of the run once again dominated by high pressure across the entire of the UK with 850s up at 15c over England from Monday. Temps likely to be above 30 for some if this run comes off. Fantastic stuff.
  10. 5 likes
    ECM 12z is showing heatwave conditions.
  11. 5 likes
    Nice to see another nationwide spell of summery warmth on the horizon. The wind and the rain will sure be back at some point but now im revelling in us seeing bucketloads of high pressure just at the right time of year.
  12. 4 likes
    Cracking mean at 216 from ECM. The op has significant support now for a significant warm/hot spell. If the op was anywhere near correct, we would have days of temps above 30 degrees and approaching if not close to the mid thirties by midweek. I would even go to say a touch higher if the ECM showed a 256 frame. Best ECM mean and op in many years. Fantastic stuff. Lovely to see the support across models as well. Fantastic spell of summer weather enroute. Long may it continue. Summer has only just begun!
  13. 4 likes
    Interesting on the GFS 18z ensemble mean, we're through to T336, and there's a signal for higher pressure just to the east of the UK: This is what we want to see more of to land some decent hot summery spells. Hopefully a lobe of high pressure breaks off to the east of us as part of the Azores high ridging. I think this scenario growing in likelihood.
  14. 4 likes
    GFS 18z, well the evolution in the later stages is interesting, high cantered out west to start with, moves east, and then combines with new link up with the Azores: All in all, good runs today, roll on tomorrow.
  15. 3 likes
    Some comments about the Gfs 12z not looking so good but the GEFS 12z mean is fantastic for warm / very warm settled conditions with plenty of high pressure / ridging, especially for southern uk..hope things work out for the majority who love summery weather!
  16. 3 likes
    16/17C uppers widely at +240 on ECM.
  17. 3 likes
    Amazing how only a slightly flatter high sees ECM wafting the 10*C 850 hPa isotherm across central parts midday Sunday while GFS is still in the process of ditching the 5*C is isotherm. Then the ECM’s flatter high drifts more east and the differences grow increasingly pronounced. ECM 12z looks ripe for 30s across quite a few places by Tuesday. Wednesday potentially even hotter depending on whether any thunderstorms break out. Impressive. GFS while less dramatic is very pleasant with mid 20s shown and - correcting for bias - high 20s probable on a good few places by Wednesday. Right, back to the VAR debate ... I mean England game
  18. 2 likes
    Impressive first 30 minutes then showed grit to score a last minute goal overall pretty good and compared to previous tournaments much better quite optimistic about our chances pace and power in the final third which will help when we play better teams
  19. 2 likes
    Better take to a cooler climate for the foreseeable. Hot summer sunshine on the way
  20. 2 likes
    The best summers do see the trademark of high pressure in the last third of June with dry the dominant feature of the month
  21. 2 likes
    Yep nice sunny and warm afternoon, is it to much to ask, for the misty murk that does nothing for anything just goes until winter now please. Proper rain is welcome, just not all the time.
  22. 2 likes
    Pleasant enough in Leith - 15C and a wee bit of blue sky about. Drizzle was threatening around Penicuik on the way in, but fine now.
  23. 2 likes
    Weirdly, Glenn Hoddle kept going on about players "not losing their heads" during the Saudi Arabia game. But Hoddle is weird, I suppose.
  24. 2 likes
    Day 2 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 18 Jun 2018 - 05:59 UTC Tue 19 Jun 2018 ISSUED 20:20 UTC Sun 17 Jun 2018 ISSUED BY: Chris/Dan The passage of a shortwave trough on Monday evening will result in a narrow temporal window of cool air aloft overlapping relatively warm SSTs and steepening mid-level lapse rates, within a highly-sheared environment. Scattered squally showers are likely to develop over Lewis during the second half of the afternoon, the focus then shifting over far NW mainland Scotland to Orkney and Shetland by evening. Instability is rather low, but the strong shear may be enough to compensate to produce some isolated / sporadic lightning, primarily between 15z - 21z. Some strong gusts of wind may be possible near some of these showers. Beyond 21z, increasing subsidence aloft, weakening instability and a reduction in shear will result in shallower, disorganised convection and hence a very low risk of lightning. http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-06-18
  25. 2 likes
    Random butterfly pics: Small Heath White Admiral Holly Blue
  26. 1 like
    Even if England had drawn the game I’d still think it was a good performance given the circumstances . I’ve not been slow in the past at criticizing some of the performances but you can’t expect a team to play the whole game like the first 20 minutes . The team is quite inexperienced with lots of younger players . The Tunisia team got their dodgy penalty and did nothing for the rest of the game . The referee gave England nothing and the Tunisian players were cynical and wasting time at every opportunity . This result should hopefully be a boost to the players , and help them settle down .
  27. 1 like
    ummm Germany lost 1-0 to Mexico and missed a host of chances too.
  28. 1 like
    Let’s just hope it’s not the summer version of “That ECM!” Good to see it has support from the ensembles.
  29. 1 like
    Yep spot on one shot on target from Tunisia and the second half was very defensive Maguire stepping into midfield showed tactical awareness when teams come at us I expect our press and pace on the counter to bring rewards a good tournament would be the quarters
  30. 1 like
    Very windy today so secured some very green hay ,only had to turn it twice but crops under pressure from such a drying wind. Hope Wednesdays forecast is correct.Very dusty Its begining to remind me of 75/76 when the hay was dry before it was cut . The domestic lawns are turning browner by the day as this drought gains its hold on the countryside. a clear evening and 10c
  31. 1 like
    Day 2 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 19 Jun 2018 - 05:59 UTC Wed 20 Jun 2018 ISSUED 20:04 UTC Mon 18 Jun 2018 ISSUED BY: Chris/Dan Main focus during this forecast period will be late afternoon and through the evening / overnight associated with the frontal wave running from Ireland into Scotland / N England. Increasing baroclinicity as a high ThetaW airmass approaches from the Atlantic will result in fairly saturated profiles with periods of heavy rain running across parts of Ireland into Scotland and N England. Rain will be particularly prolonged on exposed high ground in these areas. On the southern flank, some pockets of drier air are possible in the mid-levels, with marginal elevated instability. Some convective elements are possible as a result, especially given a strongly-sheared environment, though the true depth of such convection may be too shallow (especially given the fairly saturated nature of the column) for much in the way of lightning. http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-06-19
  32. 1 like
    deserved win there considering how dreadful tunisia and the referee were....a bit of justice in the end with the second goal
  33. 1 like
  34. 1 like
    Yes, ecm is a dream if you like heat....we’re looking at a fair stretch of days above 80f if that verifies. If you don’t like the heat, look away now. Great for me!
  35. 1 like
  36. 1 like
    Lukaku showing how deadly in front of goal he is when he actually gets some service...
  37. 1 like
    The generally low pressure on the Canadian side has outlasted many model projections from prior to the major storm event. This may well have greatly mitigated the immediate impacts of that storm on that side of the Arctic, though we can't be sure until any clearer conditions arrive. Meanwhile, the Siberian side has suffered extensive and severe snow cover loss and lowering of albedo, and with further areas of high pressure looking likely there in the near future as part of an intermittent 'reverse dipole' pattern, it's easy to envision that side seeing a total melt out by late in the season. If this happens without much change on the Canadian side, then it seems to be that we'll see the greatest test so far of the power of oceanic-driven ice loss relative to solar-driven, firstly in how much any 'warm' air transport from Siberian side are able to melt ice on the Canadian side, and secondly - and most significantly when looking at the overall health of the Arctic sea ice - in how much the freezing season is impeded on the Siberian side. An important factor in this will be the interaction of the warmer waters with the sea ice boundary; melting ice can restrict nearby SSTs to around freezing, but just how far does 'nearby' apply? Given that I can now find persistent 3-5*C temps way out at sea here, perhaps the margin is not very far at all?
  38. 1 like
    I suspect that he got a message in his shell-like telling him that it was blatant and that he might like to go and check it for himself. That's the first time that I've seen it used. It's all a bit odd, but if it gets the correct decision when the stakes are this high then it's all good. It does take all the arguing the toss out of the game, which us England fans have thrived on over the years.
  39. 1 like
    The 1200 UTC geostationary much as expected with the main front trailing SW from Ireland. Temps not looking bad on the 1200 chart
  40. 1 like
    Yes I've been watching this, for the first time in I don't know how long (certainly years), I'm running low on all four water butts in the garden, and away from Scotland, NI and the very far north of England there's no noteworthy rainfall predicted for at least the next week. If longer term signals are to be believed I wonder how long before the first hosepipe bans are brought in?
  41. 1 like
    As there is interest in the lack of rainfall in certain areas I'll pop the EPS 15 day totals in here on occasion. They are obviously subject to the usual error margin at this range but it serves as a ball park figure and fits in with current evolution ideas
  42. 1 like
  43. 1 like
    This is a weather forum last time I checked, in the depths of winter you’d get nailed on here for bigging up charts that showed average maxes. While I’m sure it’ll be ok, there’s no there’s going to be a lot of cloud so I’m still not sure it’s going to be even as very averagely good as some of the charts are indicating.
  44. 1 like
    Some photos from the dog walk today. I’m not sure about some of the IDs Gentians with Euphorbia in the background Club-tailed dragonfly ?Black-veined butterfly Fritillary butterfly, ?species
  45. 1 like
    We didn't get thunder yesterday but seriously heavy rain up to half 1 then other than a few light showers was fine rest of the day. Today started damp but dry and cloudy now up to Wednesday it seems to be up and down but after that might be wrong but not looking too bad at all possibly for the rest of the month
  46. 1 like
    As my guess was for 16.6C, I'll be happy with that...OTOH, my rainfall prediction (73mm) looks like it'll be out by about...73mm!
  47. 1 like
    And here it is, the Ecm 12z which is head and shoulders above other output so far today..really summery charts here for southern uk with a lot of azores high / ridge influence..and northern uk eventually warms up...what a finish too!
  48. 1 like
    The UKMO had the -24c isotherm making a quick beeline SE towards the UK for 168 in the form of an open wave - Also UKMO 144 - you would expect the Scandi high to seesaw a little into 168 - the west 'end' lifting somewhat & the eastern end 'dropping' by the same degree- The reverse happens over Europe where the net effect forces cold west wards - That cold pool is travelling at such a pace ( driven by the high ) that if the flow remains clean ahead of the wave - The trajectory would bring it in towards the UK, slightly moderated -18/-20c- Let see how close it gets on the ECM & JMA.... S
  49. 1 like
    I think too many have already become desensitised to what constitutes a 'fantastic chart' and the seasonal ailment of this thread (which is irrationally mood driven anyway by the more average synoptic charts that are customarily on offer) has taken on a latest variant of becoming superimposed and twisted on the absurd semantic that 'merely' only UK Tundra conditions are being shown and not the Canadian variety. Truly, if you cannot exercise self control in front of your lap-top by the smorgasbord of dessicating cold solutions evident on NWP, especially as we are heading right into meteorological Spring, then its maybe best that a different form of self torture is considered to spare those who take a more considered perspective. This has nothing to do with any regional bias (coming from a part of the country that relies on these increasingly rare sort of synoptic to get a snow fix) its to do with the usual fascination I have for sitting back and marvelling at watching a pattern like this unfold in the greater macro scale. If/when it snows at home, I will be less inclined to spend spare time waiting for when it is next going to snow, or when its going to end - but instead getting out, having fresh air, exercise and enjoying it. And then, when the snow and ice is over, it will be a case of seeing how the patterns evolve through Spring and into Summer - looking for the best that can be on offer for this Island, whose micro climate is fickle, elusive and overly too mobile to the sort of sustained blocked patterns that can be the deeply cold derivative as upcoming next week, or depictive of deep Azure blue skies, sunshine and warmth of the summer. Get used to this reality - it will always be thus
  50. 1 like
    I remember seeing this picture on Flickr at the beginning of December 2010.. it's of Cookridge Street in Leeds. I always thought it was very atmospheric. Almost like it was taken 100 years prior.
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