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Showing content with the highest reputation on 18/06/18 in all areas

  1. Based on non-NWP data, I have been cautious about the retrogression signal c/o falling atmospheric angular momentum this week, so do understand any caution also expressed in NWP terms - as whole suites can, on occasion, flip when upstream signals are not clear However, though you do describe pleasant weather in the offing, I also think your choice of terminology rather detracts from that by over dramatizing and over emphasising the downsides of the synoptic response to the slightly retrogressive signal this week. One might for forgiven for almost thinking a wintry squally mix was being ushered in by this weeks cold front reading your description When in fact bar a few (rain) showers in the east on Thursday, there looks to be increasing amounts of sunshine and temperatures on the rise once again. This is taking NWP as an overview and not unnecessary face value dissection of individual operational intra day output. Previous posts spoke of the hope that this "lull" atmospheric angular momentum phase would continue the theme of being shallower than the last. This is proving to be the case, and based on continuing favourable upstream support in the Pacific, the Global Wind Oscillation represents a very weak, almost indeterminate, Phase 1/2 signal currently - which endorses the watered down east Atlantic ridge/downstream trough scenario of this week The coolest air advection associated with the synoptic response to this looks set to be steered into the nearby continent to our east. I think that the ensemble members for The Netherlands, but more especially further east in Berlin and Warsaw illustrate this drop clearly. The extent of the cooler interlude is put into good perspective in London - with daytime temperatures for the latter part of the week close to normal and feeing warm in sunshine. So nothing especially "potent" suggested In any case, all localities reflect the transitory nature of the cooler interlude with considerable warm-ups thereafter. These represent very encouraging ensemble sets and as others have demonstrated well through use of the clusters, once the usual eccentric members are taken out of the equation, very good agreement for the extended period that most should be only very happy with as summer gathers her momentum No further commentary to be added on previous recent analysis here - based on the tropical signal, the considerable changes happening in the Pacific clearly representing a shift in regime, there is good support for continued ridging and any retrogressive/lowering of the jet signal restricted to temporary incursions furthest north and west. In any event, Bournemouth is probably set very fair and warm, as are many British cities, and unlikely that contingency energy supplies are going to have to be drawn up with the National Grid just yet
    16 points
  2. EC clusters D8-D15: Potential Heatwave Alert!!! Last night's D10 clusters: This morning's D10 clusters It's one way traffic. Those red zones indicate much higher heights than usual, and they're all in good positions to make the UK hot. EC mean 850s - on the brunnur site the bottom of the UK gets cut off but it's pretty obvious what's being missed out - the 10C upper line hits the midlands by D8, gets up to Scotland by D12, and is still over the south by D15 (look closely at the bottom corner). That's 7 consecutive days. At the end of June, that should mean 24C-30C if low pressure muck doesn't infiltrate from France (like at the end of May). But the clusters don't really go for this Biscay/French low this time e.g. T300: And the final lump of cream on top: of course, we know that on an anomalously high mean chart, the median will usually be even higher than the mean. Suggesting the middle ground may be even hotter than mean uppers charts propose. I've seen enough. I'm ramping. edit: @mb018538 you beat me to it
    11 points
  3. Good news from 00z ECM ens it supports the idea of high-pressure rebuilding from later this week and temperatures will start to respond very nicely as well
    9 points
  4. England win and the models, especially the Ecm 12z op showing a potential heatwave on the way...life is good! Fantastic Ecm 12z ensemble mean!
    8 points
  5. What a sensational run 12z ECM is The best could be yet to come
    8 points
  6. Stunningly Beautiful Ecm 12z..who wants boring average summer conditions when you could have this?..really exciting times for summer heat lovers!?️
    8 points
  7. I guess the best thing about this is the position of the high pretty much gives light winds and lots of sunshine to pretty much the whole of the UK. Maybe a little cloud building up inland during the middle of the day whilst coastal areas remain sunny and a little cooler as onshore breezes develop. Looking at the 850s, good agreement on that shallow low persisting west of Iberia and this should help to allow the heat building over Spain and France to slowly move northwards, add to that the temperatures at the surface should rise too under light winds and prolonged sunny spells. The ECM op for example should get close to 32C/90F by day 10 and I guess moving forward would likely to increase further as the surface high begins to drift east of the UK again. The ens probably keeping a mix of solutions in week two though in general keeping the high close to the UK, if it ends up over Ireland temperatures will proably settle in the high twenties, but if it can set up over the vicinity of Germany then it will allow a southerly wind to push northwards and this has the potential to be hot or even very hot. One to watch but overall the outlook is very settled with temperatures above or well above average after a cooler couple of days to end this week.
    7 points
  8. Absolutely brilliant from UKMO 12z great times ahead potentially
    7 points
  9. good news too from the noaa anomaly charts which support pressure gradually ridging in off the displacing azores high. however i dont think they support (yet at least) some of the ecm's stronger builds as we keep a (slacker) flow from the westerly quardant. interestingly theres hints of pressure dropping over biscay. so a plume event later next week is a possibility with temps soaring along with humidity. but thats dependent on the expected ridging continuing its slow easterly track. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php its also looking dry, very dry in fact after wednesday. at this rate ill be seeing brown lawns for the first time in 12 years.
    7 points
  10. Wow, people want summery weather in, er, summer. Shockingly selfish, especially when the weather is so crap here most of the time.
    6 points
  11. Add into the mix the ICON at T180, and I'm starting to think that on the back of the 0z ECM and ensembles we may see a settled full house in the 12s at least out to day 10, or as far as the models go, here's hoping:
    6 points
  12. GFS/UKMO and GEM at day 6 Solid UK based high on both here, the UKMO starting to dig cold air towards that low west of Iberia which would be a classic precursor to some serious heat spreading north into northern Europe as we went further. The GFS looks better than the 06z run and crucially both are starting to drift towards a solution by the ECM suite this morning. The end of the week still looks quite cool for the time of year but temperatures should recover by the weekend and into the following week.
    6 points
  13. Belting UKMO run tonight - high pressure really in control at 144
    6 points
  14. How about this for a corker of ECM ensembles. A week today - nothing other than a large ridge over the UK, just slight variations of the position. Day 10 still looking great, every cluster remaining high pressure based. It's not until right at the end of the run that anything unsettled starts to emerge, but even then 50% of the members are still settled.
    6 points
  15. Cracking morning run from ECM. Fine, warm and dry for most. The end of the run is particularly stunning with temps quite widely into the thirties by 216-240. All fi of course but nice to see anyway. Weekend looks warm and sunny for many. Temps low twenties. Maybe mid twenties by Sunday. Lovely
    6 points
  16. Although the increasing influence of high pressure over most of the UK is pretty much nailed down in the medium term, the actual development of the upper ridge, and thus the surface high cell still remains to be resolved. This is important because although, fairly obviously, light winds and lack of precipitation are the percentage play, regional variations of temperature and cloud can be critically dependent on the position of the surface high. With that in mind it’s worthwhile keeping an eye on this from an early stage. At the moment the GEFS and EPS are in the same ball park, but not in detail, with the general theme being ridging in mid Atlantic drifting east over time. This, for example from the EPS, would mean the high cell drifting across central and southern England eventually leading to a southerly drift before giving way a more westerly regime. But that is getting too far ahead of ourselves for the moment as slight variations on this can make a vast difference. Currently in the short term a N/S split seems likely with any systems nipping around the ridge to the west in the north westerly upper flow. meanwhile................... The cloud and patchy rain/drizzle associated with fronts from the deep depression to the north west have slowly drifted east leaving a clear night for western areas and the cloud only still effecting the central and south eastern areas of England. This will slowly clear here during the morning giving way to a sunny and quite warm day, particularly in the south east but more cloud and patchy rain will move into north western areas later and then spreading a south east as the next system moves in from the Atlantic. Quite a temp variation either side of the front The south east will stay clear during the evening but come Tuesday morning cloud and patchy rain will cover Wales and England from the Midlands south as the front stalls and temps today in this area are very dependent on whether the sun can break through for any length of time. The front has stalled due to another wave forming on it to west which is tracking north east which in turn brings more cloud and rain to north western areas, and later in the day in general to northern areas as the front returns northwards. By Wednesday the high pressure (as mentioned earlier) is starting to amplify in mid Atlantic but for the moment most of the UK remains in a cool showery regime as the front slips south again except that is for the south east which could well be quite warm and muggy. Again marked NW/SE temp contrasts either side of the front. By Thursday the high cell has tracked east over the UK so some variable cloud and some showers along east coastal regions but generally a reasonable warm day. Ditto Friday but perhaps sunnier and less likelihood of showers with temps a tad higher The rainfall distribution is another indication of the pattern tending to a N/S split
    6 points
  17. For Friday highest pressure looks set to be centred over western and south-western Britain, although I think the GFS may be overdoing its central pressure, comparing with the UKMO and ECMWF which have it at nearer 1030mb. I expect that this will mean plenty of warm sunshine for western areas but with that northerly flow eastern areas will probably be somewhat cloudier with isolated showers, probably stratocumulus trapped underneath a cap. Not sure about the posts referencing only weak ridges of high pressure - the UKMO admittedly has rather tentative ridging with westerlies over the top of the high which would promote a north-south split, but the GFS and especially ECMWF have a high of around 1025-1028mb central pressure sitting over a large portion of the UK around days 7-10. I would expect the cloud in eastern areas to dissipate in that setup with a large majority of the country seeing warm sunshine. The latter stages of the ECMWF run look potentially hot and thundery which is an outcome that I've been envisaging for late-June for some time, although my confidence in the hot thundery scenario is waning with a good chance of the high being too strong.
    6 points
  18. I honestly don't understand the negativity in here, both the GEFS / ECM 12z mean show a fantastic extended outlook, you would struggle to find a better Ecm 12z ensemble mean than what I've posted above which indicates a nationwide summery spell on the way..Even before then, southern areas will see 25c tomorrow and 26 / 27c on tues / wed across the s / se....I'm hoping the met office are right, if they are there's lots to look forward to in the weeks ahead for those of us who love summery weather!
    6 points
  19. The best way to describe the ECM mean tonight is stunning More upgrades in the coming days hopefully
    5 points
  20. If one model is to be more west with the high, it’s usually encouraging if it’s GFS and you want the high more east, due to the model’s low AAM bias (albeit this less pronounced when AAM is low in the first place). ECM 12z evolved into a proper 76-style toaster for the S in particular what with the dry run of weather lately. That’s not to say it will be anything like as prolonged as that, though! (Well.. almost certainly?).
    5 points
  21. Hot stuff from ECM tonight may see a string of 30C+ days if this come to fruition. That low W of Iberia may pull up some spectacular thundery weather too, up from south, not far off a classic.
    5 points
  22. Absolutely stunning 12z ECM once again. Words alone cannot describe how good this run is again! Builds the high in very quickly after a slightly cooler Interlude on Thursday with temps well into twenties again by the Sunday. The latter stages of the run once again dominated by high pressure across the entire of the UK with 850s up at 15c over England from Monday. Temps likely to be above 30 for some if this run comes off. Fantastic stuff.
    5 points
  23. ECM 12z is showing heatwave conditions.
    5 points
  24. Nice to see another nationwide spell of summery warmth on the horizon. The wind and the rain will sure be back at some point but now im revelling in us seeing bucketloads of high pressure just at the right time of year.
    5 points
  25. Cracking 00z from ECM with high pressure starting to dominate once more it get's progressively warmer as the run progresses
    5 points
  26. Cracking mean at 216 from ECM. The op has significant support now for a significant warm/hot spell. If the op was anywhere near correct, we would have days of temps above 30 degrees and approaching if not close to the mid thirties by midweek. I would even go to say a touch higher if the ECM showed a 256 frame. Best ECM mean and op in many years. Fantastic stuff. Lovely to see the support across models as well. Fantastic spell of summer weather enroute. Long may it continue. Summer has only just begun!
    4 points
  27. Interesting on the GFS 18z ensemble mean, we're through to T336, and there's a signal for higher pressure just to the east of the UK: This is what we want to see more of to land some decent hot summery spells. Hopefully a lobe of high pressure breaks off to the east of us as part of the Azores high ridging. I think this scenario growing in likelihood.
    4 points
  28. GFS 18z, well the evolution in the later stages is interesting, high cantered out west to start with, moves east, and then combines with new link up with the Azores: All in all, good runs today, roll on tomorrow.
    4 points
  29. Some comments about the Gfs 12z not looking so good but the GEFS 12z mean is fantastic for warm / very warm settled conditions with plenty of high pressure / ridging, especially for southern uk..hope things work out for the majority who love summery weather!
    3 points
  30. Whilst both UKMO and ECM are showing the evolution of a UK based high as we approach the weekend, GFS is still less than convincing in this regard - though moving towards such a scenario. Always best to remain cautious, I'd say the balance in favour of the high migrating west or east is 50/50 at this point. This is often a pivotal time.. the northern hemisphere settles into its summer base state, and high pressure ruling the roost, is generally usually a very positive sign. This summer certainly has potential to be the best overall since 2006 - which is a high benchmark.
    3 points
  31. 16/17C uppers widely at +240 on ECM.
    3 points
  32. Amazing how only a slightly flatter high sees ECM wafting the 10*C 850 hPa isotherm across central parts midday Sunday while GFS is still in the process of ditching the 5*C is isotherm. Then the ECM’s flatter high drifts more east and the differences grow increasingly pronounced. ECM 12z looks ripe for 30s across quite a few places by Tuesday. Wednesday potentially even hotter depending on whether any thunderstorms break out. Impressive. GFS while less dramatic is very pleasant with mid 20s shown and - correcting for bias - high 20s probable on a good few places by Wednesday. Right, back to the VAR debate ... I mean England game
    3 points
  33. These plots have their limitations, but at least I can show you that ECMF has moved toward the enthusiastic output from CANM with respect to the MJO propagation during the next week. Still much more adjustment needed before it starts to look properly promising, but it's a start . Overall, today has brought a bit of good news with respect to longer-term prospects. Long may that continue .
    3 points
  34. https://e360.yale.edu/features/in-defense-of-biodiversity-why-protecting-species-from-extinction-matters
    2 points
  35. Output looking very sexy , I feel a BBQ coming on
    2 points
  36. Better take to a cooler climate for the foreseeable. Hot summer sunshine on the way ?️?️?️?️?️?️?️?️?️
    2 points
  37. The best summers do see the trademark of high pressure in the last third of June with dry the dominant feature of the month
    2 points
  38. ECM will prob see temps into the low 90s.
    2 points
  39. Yep nice sunny and warm afternoon, is it to much to ask, for the misty murk that does nothing for anything just goes until winter now please. Proper rain is welcome, just not all the time.
    2 points
  40. A good example of lee waves over eastern Scotland, N. Ireland and east Wales on the high res. MODIS at 1227 UTC. (courtesy DSRS) https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learning/wind/lee-waves
    2 points
  41. 00z GFS run is very dry for England and Wales right out to D10 even in Scotland and NI it isn't exceptionally wet but enough rain to stop the grass going brown
    2 points
  42. Brightening up here now, and that sun is hot. Weather station says 17.8c but it tends to tell fibs. Am excited at the idea of more high pressure good weather coming Hope it happens!
    2 points
  43. Just to show how quickly things can change as well....4 days ago at 240 hours, we had these options: None of which really translate to the 168 hour charts generated today really. Fast moving game this weather lark.
    2 points
  44. Pleasant enough in Leith - 15C and a wee bit of blue sky about. Drizzle was threatening around Penicuik on the way in, but fine now.
    2 points
  45. It's funny but looking at this morning's gfs output one can't help reflecting on the influence the cut off upper low over Iberia gas had on proceedings recently and how it might again. We shall see
    2 points
  46. The Ecm 12z ensemble mean again turns into a fantastic run for summer warmth and settled weather.?️
    2 points
  47. Day 2 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 18 Jun 2018 - 05:59 UTC Tue 19 Jun 2018 ISSUED 20:20 UTC Sun 17 Jun 2018 ISSUED BY: Chris/Dan The passage of a shortwave trough on Monday evening will result in a narrow temporal window of cool air aloft overlapping relatively warm SSTs and steepening mid-level lapse rates, within a highly-sheared environment. Scattered squally showers are likely to develop over Lewis during the second half of the afternoon, the focus then shifting over far NW mainland Scotland to Orkney and Shetland by evening. Instability is rather low, but the strong shear may be enough to compensate to produce some isolated / sporadic lightning, primarily between 15z - 21z. Some strong gusts of wind may be possible near some of these showers. Beyond 21z, increasing subsidence aloft, weakening instability and a reduction in shear will result in shallower, disorganised convection and hence a very low risk of lightning. http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-06-18
    2 points
  48. Random butterfly pics: Small Heath White Admiral Holly Blue
    2 points
  49. It's felt more like autumn than summer here this weekend....even had to have the heating on tonight!
    1 point
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