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That's the CFS for you: my order for a chocolate teapot is already in the post!

noaa anomaly charts dont support any pattern change either way, retaining the brisk upper westerly which will prevent anything other then transitory ridging. but with positive heights across most of southern uk theres no great problem with rain, in fact the rather dry theme looks set to continue for some time away from the northwest. a lot of pleasant summery weather then, with the warmest/sunniest in the south/southeast.

The Ecm 12z actually looks good, plenty of high pressure / ridging and plenty of warmth further south, just that cooler blip thurs / fri but there should be a decent amount of sunshine for most of the uk..I've seen much worse in late june!

BINGO!! UKMO is beautiful this evening and backs up the beautiful meto update from earler today, HPp firmly in charge pretty much from start to finish a while therafter by the looks of the 144 chart!!

Looking at the latest 6-10 day 500 mb anomaly output suggests that any upper ridging is a short lived affair with a mainly westerly pattern showing. You can see this, albeit certainly not cast in stone, on this morning's ECMWF if you play the previous chart from yesterday. This has a marked +ve ehight anomaly this morning no sign. NOAA also shows this over the past 2 days or so. I generally take NOAA as the most reliable with EC following and GFS some way behind unless it is similar to the other two. No GFS either yesterday or today on the link I have. The 8-14 NOAA similar to the 6-10. To me it remains looking like a NW-SE split on average through the next 2 weeks. Obviously they are 'mean' charts and some divergence on occasasional days will occur but no major difference over the period as a whole. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

You're absolutely right..the T+240 mean is a cracker..?️

EC mean is,once again, excellent.

Why do people bother with CFS, especially Crewe Cold?

The nights are at their shortest and it won't feel chilly in the late June sun..you've actually made a decent week ahead, at least for the south sound awful..congratulations!

So not only is the trough-ridge combo sharper but the ridge is now looking stronger too. That brings about the import of cool air Thu-Fri, but in exchange the ridge has much greater potential longevity than before, which seems like a pretty good deal to me .

Yes if anything todays output looks the polar opposite of the post you replied too. Add to that the meto update and its looking really good for late June and early July.

The GEFS 6z mean is dominated by azores ridging until well into low res so predominantly fine and warm sums it up, best across most of england and wales, especially further south..cooler for northern uk.

youre forgetting a lot of eastern areas didnt get a 'glorious' may, a lot of us away from the west was plagued by cloud.

A band of showery rain associated with the low north west of Ireland is currently over N. Ireland and Wales. This will track east through the day with the heaviest outbreaks over N. Ireland, northern England and Scotland. Further south it will be lighter and patchy fizzling out to just cloud as it arrives further east. Clearer weather behind the front will reach the south west later this morning, eventually spreading to all areas but accompanied by heavy showers, particularly in the north. Temps down a bit from late and certainly a fresher feel to the air Quite a clear night and start to the day on Sunday but the next low is approaching to the north west and the associated fronts bring cloud and light rain/drizzle to western parts by lunchtime. Further east it will remain dry but cloudy albeit perhaps a tad warmer than today. By Monday it's worth looking once again at the overall picture as this really indicates the direction of travel of the evolution. With the major upper trough to the north west extending south in the western Atlantic we have the classic breeding ground for lows in the baroclinic zone east of the eastern seaboard which travel north east on the jet around the Azores high pressure which ridges into the south of the UK. Thus we have the perfect set up for a N/S split across the UK which could well be the dominant theme for much of next week. Thus by Tuesday we find the cooler, cloudier and windier weather with slight rain across the north, courtesy of a front straggled across Scotland, whilst further south much lighter winds and quite warm. A similar story on Wednesday, although the decaying front has tracked further south, with a marked temp contrast between the NW and SE where it could well get warm, or very warm.

Come on GFS, pub run special please! As for the CFS, does anybody really take it seriously? I remember that it gets looked at about a month prior to Christmas Day and within the space of 12 hours, flips from sub zero to sub tropical!

Hi all. Watched this approach us at Spurn from the west. Constant rumbling and flashing towards Immingham and Hull and I assumed it would pass us by. However the clouds built and approached then let go with a vengeance!! No Thunder and Lightning directly for us unfortunately as the main bit just went to the North West. Regards Glenn

There's some really decent late June weather on the Gfs 12z, not only in the week ahead but the extended outlook too...as these charts show.

Urgh. Disgustizzle. Edit: An hour later it's monsoon rain and thunder. But still urgh.

Yes... a trend noticed in the det runs toward the subtropical ridge retraction being sharper, to the extent that a trough is able to dig down west of the UK instead of across it, with the potential for a ridge over or east of us. Such sharper ridge-trough combinations are one of the possible results from reduced Arctic sea ice. Not saying this is necessarily behind the current trend, but it could be at least part of the equation...

comma butterfly catterpillar

18z turning into a cracker as the high never really leaves our locale and warmer uppers are slowly being dragged towards the UK ..

Its taken seriously when it's showing folk exactly what they want to see.

We can add GEM now to the list of models keeping the UK very dry and increasingly warmer as we head through next weekend..

The outlook for the rest of the June looks pretty dry and probably pretty warm once we balance out the warmer/cooler spells, high pressure never looks too far away. ECM ens So the first half of next week looks potentially very warm before a front sinks south east introducing cooler conditions, this is then followed by warmer air running towards the UK with potential signs of something a little more substantial occurring in week two, the operational at day ten looks to be setting up a plume type event which looks possible off the ECM ens at least. GFS less keen on potentially developing that Euro ridge in week two, instead it keeps a westerly pattern with warmer/cooler conditions though with the jetstream running a fair way north then rainfall again looks pretty limited.

Indeed, before the big freeze arrives later next week the Ecm 12z shows some very warm settled weather across southern uk..especially wednesday.

Indeed, could even be the odd snow flurry about if the uppers get low enough...

5 minutes of heavyish rain.....which left us with a strong ranbow

Horrible wet day, although sun is now out. Hope tomorrow is better as am out clay pigeon shooting.

We’ve just had a really heavy power shower! To be honest, I wasn’t expecting anything this afternoon, but after that, something MIGHT kick off. This is what I can see as it heads off towards Helsby area.

sunny and quite humid today, bbc were going for 27 next week. Although I prefer winter, I'm loving all the extra hours of daylight

Hail and thunder here in N Ireland

Hi Jeff! This is more like I had in mind as a hat tip to just how much has altered in both the makeup of the basin but also the new way melt season works under the well fragmented /thin ice/young ice new baselines. It is also just honing our measures as we move down to ever smaller remnant ice amounts come seasons end? Before long folk will be posting up comparative years to show up how amiss things are if we have exact same end numbers but the more modern one crammed with squares of very low content compared to the older ones with square 100% ice? If anything it is to safeguard the science from those who wish to discredit it due to data issues ( we've seen this with the temp record). So, crack on you ice agencies and give us a near perfect measure of the ice as it melts so the increasing number of ice watchers can make better sense of what they are seeing

Looks fine to me, westerly based ridging is better than a trough. Being in the south and east I’ll obviously benefit most, so from an imby point of view I’ll take it!

So topsy turvy at the moment even at short range! Huge variations run to run on how far north the jet will be. Two things though 1. spot on about the rain, could some parts of the south be headed for a near zero rainfall total for the month? and 2. the jet seems to be dying off again by next weekend, a trend on all models for a few runs now.

GFS 18z to T192: Great run for much of the country, tonight's output definitely looking like an improvement. Then we get to this T276, where did this come from?

Day 2 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 16 Jun 2018 - 05:59 UTC Sun 17 Jun 2018 ISSUED 21:46 UTC Fri 15 Jun 2018 ISSUED BY: Chris An upper trough and associated vorticity advection/mass ascent will aid in producing isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the low and slight areas. Daytime heating (CAPE up to 500 J/kg) timed with maximum PVA ahead of the upper trough will be the fuel for convection, especially across central/northern/eastern England by Saturday afternoon. Cloud cover associated with an occluded front that will move through before the unstable air and drying mid-levels behind the front are limiting factors so the highest risk of lightning remains nearer 30%. 0-6km shear will be around 30-35kts so should allow for some organised convection that will move ENE at about 30-40mph. The largest risk of lighting will be across the SLIGHT risk area between 1500BST and 1900BST. Speed shear could support a few shallow, rotating updrafts with the small risk of a tornado or two possible. http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-06-16

Spot the Moorhens

Indeed so the methods could be precisely accurate or imprecisely accurate or precisely inaccurate or imprecisely inaccurate. Hence as BFTV mentions above consistency of methodology is key. Once there is enough data from new methodologies, comparison, correlation and extrapolation can be made, but with the caveats re precision and accuracy being important. It's a bold move to bin an entire dataset due to a new way of testing / evaluating. If we look at sun spot No's, we know there were inaccuracies in the data, but the "new improved" data hasn't just trashed the data from e.g. the maunder minimum, because there has (I believe) been a correlation exercise which takes the limited equipment etc into account. Maybe something similar could be achieved with ice extent, thickness and age by running methods alongside for sufficiently long to be meaningful.

the semi permanent sceuro ridge now lost and more mobile pattern established. As others have mused - is this going to become the form horse for the next four/six weeks or will we see a reversion to the sceuro ridge/Atlantic trough ? the models seem unsure in the 6/10 day period which way is best to go - the eps only with one extended cluster on the 12z run is unhelpful for the 10/14 day term and perhaps that entire suite (with the v warm op run not particularly well supported) is less reliable than might be hoped. the theme of summer remains generally excellent (this less settled period we are currently in is hardly dire countrywide) but what July might have in store ..............

18Z was actually one of the cooler runs mid term!

I am not sure which way that eastern Greece storm is heading,it looks stationary to me https://en.sat24.com/en/gr/infraPolair https://en.sat24.com/en/ba/rainTMC i would love to be on that eastern Greek coast right now though,what a show that would be.

It has been constant Cg's,just like the other night in Nea roda NE greece i will look back at tonights clips when i have the time.

Well looking at ECM and GFS tonight i think we can safely say it looks very dry over the next 7 to 10 days away from NW Britain- no heatwave but temps into the low to mid 20s for many next week, esp mon/tue/wed. After that yes the high gets dragged a little west on GFS but high teens low 20s across much of the country. Really positive about next week and a little beyond now.

Storm & Convective Forecast Issued 2018-06-15 21:43:16 Valid: 16/06/2018 0600 - 17/06/2018 0600 THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK - SAT 16TH JUNE 2018 Synopsis A fairly potent upper low will pass east across Scotland during Saturday embedded in broadscale strong westerly upper flow dominating the far north Atlantic and northern Europe. At the surface, an occluded front will traverse the UK in the morning and early afternoon, ahead of surface low moving east and filling as it approaches NW Scotand. An airmass unstable to surface heating will follow the occluded front. ... N. IRELAND, CENTRAL & SOUTHERN SCOTLAND, N and E ENGLAND ... Upper trough crossing northern Britain will create steep lapse rates, surface heating in any sunny spells, following frontal cloud band with showery rain clearing east, will yield a few 100 j/kg CAPE, which will support development of scattered heavy showers and a few or more thunderstorms. 30-40 knots of deep layer shear could allow some organisation in multicell clusters which maybe capable of producing isolated strong wind gusts, hail and torrential rainfall leading to localised flooding. Backing of low-level winds with approach of surface trough from the west may induce enough low-level shear to perhaps support a few funnel clouds with stronger updrafts, a brief weak tornado can't be ruled out. The risk of thunderstorms will quickly fade after dark, as forcing for ascent clears east and surface heating wanes. Issued by: Nick Finnis

Mmm too much variability between intra-model runs at the moment , a north-south split is the form horse, warm and sunny conditions in the south into next week, cooler wetter weather for the north. Longer term - the balance appears to be in favour that the azores high will retract back west,rather than ridge NE and to our east. All quite normal stuff for this stage in the year, a fine balance - preety decent for the south, more standard for the north.. but compared to recent weeks, rather underwhelming overall - perhaps expectations this year are much higher though - given how things have recently been.

In fact you have to say EC looks lovely from monday through to next saturday away from the far NW. Inc next sunday as well! A really beautiful EC this evening for many!!

Looks like a small chance for me around lunch time tomorrow. 25 KTs of shear this time as well.

The Gfs 12z operational also shows plenty of high pressure / ridging next week with the best of the fine weather further south but the most noticeable thing about next week is the temperature contrast from north to south with scotland / n.ireland varying anywhere from low / mid / upper teens celsius, coolest across the far n / nw compared to low to mid 20's celsius across most of england and wales, very warm upper 20's c for a time across southern / southeast england between mid / late next week.

The Annual moans of ‘no rain’ is in full swing I see... happens every year. Wont be to long before your all complaining of to much rain. This is the UK. Cherish prolonged dry spells - don’t complain about it. I do outdoor sports and have 2 dogs, the rain can stay well away thanks very much. My Local farmer happy with current conditions when I see him on the 6am dog walks, with the horrendous wet early spring with bogged fields this weather is still welcome! If your flowers are dry, fill up a watering can. Job done.

I've forgotten what rain looks like...