Leaderboard

What a great show that was! Almost 2 hours of CG's and loud shotgun thunder. Plenty of surface flooding in the usual places around the area. A lot better than I was expecting Managed to capture a couple pics on my phone, not the best quality - must invest In a decent camera soon!

...and on the MJO keeps chugging into the Pacific, right in the face of the models which, with each new update, continue to insist that it will suddenly collapse. This makes the drastic fall in GLAAM currently being predicted by GFS/GEFS look highly improbable. As a result, I'm inclined to put aside what it produces beyond a week's range for the time being - such as the 00z and 06z runs, which have suddenly started showing an MJO phase 6 + Nina-like pattern in the later stages, due to it thinking that the MJO will suddenly decay without getting beyond phase 6 (this seemingly also entirely removing the subsequent positive GLAAM response). ECM is likely having similar issues but perhaps without such negative GLAAM bias. This does not, however, change the prognosis of recent days; that we're heading for a more changeable spell prior to (hopefully!) a recovery toward more settled conditions by/within the final third of the month - it's just the positioning of troughs and ridges during the changeable period that the above has an impact upon.

Indeed, not the worst end to the run is it, signs of hope..and actually most of the run looks on the warm side, at least across southern uk with the bulk of the unsettled weather from later next week across the w / nw..I've seen much worse! ..oh yes and it will be good riddance to north sea cloudy muck soon too!

I can’t see anything concerning just yet. Looks like we finally pick up a westerly flow but the Azores ridge looks poised to bounce back on the ECM

I wasn't shouting about anything, just making the point that the Gfs 12z looks quite decent away from the far w / nw for the next week or so..and that's the reliable timeframe.

A quick look at a couple of the EPS short range 500mb NH anomaly charts from last night which illustrate quite well ( imo) the amplification of the North American ridge, resulting in a split vortex lobe, with the more relevant upper trough ( from the UK viewpoint) over Newfoundland. This is then due to track east towards Iceland with a very strong westerly upper jet running across the Atlantic south of it but that is outside the remit of this thread. The GEFS pretty much in agreement with this. Meanwhile a familiar pattern unfolds over the UK over the next few days. Dawn breaks after a fresh clear night in many areas apart from eastern coastal regions where low cloud remains the problem and further south along the south coast where more humid air accompanied by showery outbreaks has encroached during the night. It may even give the odd storm. The showers and humid air will track north as far as the southern Midlands during the day thus intermittent sunshine albeit another warm day. Clearer skies further north but the usual caveat vis the NE/E coast. The humidity charts, the 0300 geostationary WV, and the Camborne 00 sounding illustrate the above. The cloudy humid air will continue to move north overnight and through Friday thus spreading the shower area but these will tend to fizzle out during the day although as temps rise a few more could be triggered in the south. So generally another warm day, sunnier away the above area, but with the usual proviso of course. The overall analysis on Saturday sees the upper low to the south encircled by the ridging Azores and European highs which sets the tone for the weekend. Worth noting developments upstream are under way with the trough over Newfoundland. Thus a continuation of the humid air creep with showery outbreaks possible over England and wales, interspersed with sunny intervals,. Another warm day, particularly in the south with the usual caveat east coast regions where mist and low cloud may well pertain. Sunday a not dissimilar day Further emphasis on the north/south theme on Monday as the drier and sunnier weather, with perhaps the odd shower whilst more concentrated thundery outbreaks spread north over the south of England. Another warm day, temps still above average in the west and north, but humid in the south. And the NH 500mb anomaly at T120

I cannot see anything other than a more westerly influenced upper air pattern. The 500 mb anomaly charts, all 3 I use, show this type again in the past 24 hours, now 4 in a row. It would be very surprising if they prove to be wrong in the 6-14 day or so outlook in my view. Others may disagree. Beyond that, well not my area of expertise so I leave this to others. Myself I would be surprised if there is another major change within, what, say 15-18 days at least. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php the 14 day chart is not much different either

This 'return of the westerlies' or 'European monsoon' so many bang on about sounds interesting. It happens so rarely I can't actually think of any examples off the top of my head. The irony is that many places would probably dry up a bit if there was snore westerly flow given the jet moves north during the summer. Fewer low pressures hugging the south with rain there. I can't see anything that suggests more than an Atlantic blip so far. Returning from Rio de Janeiro in winter, it should feel quite similar in the UK.

Well at least there's no shortage of warmth on the Ecm 12z run, especially across southern uk with uppers (850's) like these and given some decent sunshine, temperatures will rocket into the mid / upper 20's celsius, especially this weekend further s / e and there should be a lot of fine weather but with increasing humidity comes an increasing risk of scattered heavy showers / thunderstorms..then as per other output, it becomes generally more unsettled and cooler from the atlantic but day 10 would be warmer, especially given any sunshine but ending with quite a deep low to the NW by mid june standards!

I'm willing to learn ??

Jordon, with all respect, you dont need to be an authority on forecasting - theres some very learned and clever people in here - just join in giving your opinion without trying to own the discussion. Im looking forwards to the jet coming closer to our shores and we get out of this popcorn storm regime! Samos

I would t worry too much about the gfs 12z op, its a cold and wet outlier. General ensemble trends are a better indicator, these are all over the place in the 7-14 day period, so no real indicators yet. Still warm options there, I think we may have to wait another 5 days for the unsettled stuff to start arriving before we know what we might get after.

Well I’m clinging to the fact that’s it’s low res and FI! Let’s see what the ECM churns out.

Some of the moaning in the MOD thread is getting really tiresome!! Some of us have had 5 or 6 weeks of wonderful weather!(For a change).

It does show this very slightly but I would need it to show rather more of that consistently to start to believe the longer trend on NOAA.

can't wait

Another beauty!

Another blissful day of copious sunshine, light winds and a "just right" temperature maximum of 18C. Sprinkler on all evening, and to think I never had to use it last summer!

Looking at tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean there's plenty of warm fine weather to enjoy in the reliable timeframe, indeed becoming very warm / humid further s / se with an increasing risk of a few thunderstorms..it stays warm although not as warm next week but freshens up with increasing atlantic mobility, more so further n / nw with the s / se generally less affected..

Indeed, awful these northeasterlies aren't they- yet another warm, cloudless afternoon here in Manchester!

Slight delay to the 'proper westerlies' on this run; a bit more of a ridge ahead of the main Atlantic trough. Only one reasonable day of weather gained though - we can't stave off the inevitable for much longer! p.s. I'm finding I can't see these attachments after I submit the post, is this the case for others too?

At last, a westerly! make a change after 6 weeks misty cloudy rubbish

Sleet on top of Ben Nevis!! That's summer hols sorted.GFS not on board yet but ECM smelling the coffee seemingly. There's a stand off between the other models. Pistols at dawn... 0600z.

Glorious in Darlo now the cloud has burnt away much better than Monday now that chilly breeze has died down

Wow, the sun is out. The most blue sky I've seen in about a fortnight .

It's a mean across a whole month so those flow lines smooth out the interchanging of individual ridges within. This is why I prefer to use the anomalies alongside a consideration of what the long-term average is. In July, the average is more often settled than not in the south, and near 50/50 settled/unsettled in the north, so with the positive anomaly of 8-16 dam or so, the implications is for almost entirely settled in the south and often settled in the north. True that the Tweet above is perhaps a bit too broad in what it suggests; only the S half of the UK would be seeing a noteworthy month (at least in terms of few wet days) from that exact anomaly chart.

Och well...after two-days' azure blue skies, it's back to trying to spot Altocumulus grimsleyanus clouds through a horribly yellow-grey haze. Yuck!

16.6 to the 6th 3.3 above the 61 to 90 average 3.1 above the 81 to 10 average _______________________________ Current high this month 18.7 to the 1st Current low this month 16.6 to the 6th

2 days spotless

Feeling fresh this morning so I think you’ll need plenty of sun to beef things up. Last night shows even in a low risk zone we can get some hefty little storms going though...

Morning, Differences abound today. The Atlantic influence is creeping ever closer, GFS goes full on tilt mode, really ramping up the unsettled weather: http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2018060700/gfs-0-192.png?0 ECM somewhat calmer at the same timeframe: http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2018060700/ECM1-192.GIF?07-12 Plenty to be resolved. https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/gefsens850london0.png Ensembles still all over the place, those very warm/hot runs are still there which is a plus.

The penultimate sentence above should of course read: Further emphasis on the north/south theme on Monday as the drier and sunnier weather will be in the north....... The 0600 UTC geostationary

One hellava shower here in Essex at dawn. A few flashes of lightning but the rain was so hard that I couldn't hear any thunder. All 5 of my cats got caught out in it. Some very unhappy moggies returned home shortly after it stopped.

Meanwhile I posted the CET scores from the excel file that I managed to open, over in the May thread. You can check there, SB you were in 24th place in that update. The Hadley EWP alternate figure has come in at 52.0 mm. That means (since the contest NCIC scores are based on 48.8 mm) most of the lower scores would be the same, as for the higher scores, this is the portion of the table that would be different, down to where it becomes identical with the previously posted EWP scores, and following that, the updated annual "Hadley EWP" scores (which are not contest official partly because some forecasters are probably going a bit lower knowing how NCIC is always a bit lower than Hadley, but if you want to know how Hadley is treating you, this is your place to find out...) Hadley EWP scores for May (only those which are different from NCIC posted earlier, scores below 3.0 can be seen in that table, same here) Rank _ Score _ Forecast _ Error __ Forecaster 1. _____10.0 ___ 51.0 __ -1.0 ___ NORRANCE 2. _____ 9.8 ___ 50.1 __ -1.9 ___ POLAR GAEL T3 _____ 9.6 ___ 50.0 __ -2.0 ___ J10 T3 _____ 9.6 ___ 54.0 __ +2.0 ___ BORN FROM THE VOID T5 _____ 9.2 ___ 55.0 __ +3.0 ___ TIMMYTOUR, THE PIT, MAPANTZ 8. _____ 8.6 ___ 48.0 __ -4.0 ___ GODBER.1 9. _____ 8.4 ___ 56.0 __ +4.0 ___ SINGULARITY T10 ____ 8.2 ___ 58.0 __ +6.0___ DAMI, REEF 12. _____ 7.8 ___ 45.0 __ -3.8 ___ B87 T13 ____ 7.6 ___ 60.0 __ +8.0___ DIAGONALREDLINE, WEATHER-HISTORY (T15)___ 7.3 ___ 61.1 __ +9.1___ average 1981-2010, average 1988-2017 15. _____ 7 2 ___ 42.0 __ -6.6 ___ MULZY T16 ____ 7.0 ___ 41.0 __-11.0 ___ RADIATING DENDRITE, DAVEHSUG T16_____7.0 ___ 63.0 __+11.0 ___ SYED2878 19. _____6.3 ___ 64.0 __+12.0 ___ CHEESEPUFFSCOTT 20. _____6.1 ___ 39.0 __-15.0 ___ LF1002 T21 ____ 5.9 ___ 68.0 __+16.0 ___ TJM14, STATIONARY FRONT, Consensus 23. _____ 5.7 ___ 68.0 __+16.0 ___ SEASIDE 60 (5.9 - 0.2) 24. _____ 5.3 ___ 68.8 __+16.8 ___ WEATHER26 T25 ____ 5.1 ___ 35.0 __-17.0 ___ DANIEL* T25 ____ 5.1 ___ 69.0 __+17.0 ___ STARGAZER T27 ____ 4.7 ___ 34.0 __-18.0 ___ BLAST FROM THE PAST T27 ____ 4.7 ___ 70.0 __+18.0 ___ JEFF C, DON 30. _____ 4.1 ___ 70.8 __+18.8 ___ CHRISBELL-not-the-WEATHERMAN 31. _____ 3.9 ___ 71.0 __+19.0 ___ JONBOY 32. _____ 3.7 ___ 71.5 __+19.5 ___ LET IT SNOW! 33. _____ 3.5 ___ 32.0 __-20.0 ___ ROGER J SMITH 34 _____ 3.3 ___ 72.0 __+20.0 ___ VIRTUALSPHERE (3.5 - 0.2) (scores 3.0 and below are same as previous table, errors reduced by 3.2) Annual Scoring Update (Dec 2017 to Apr 2018) -- Hadley scoring Rank __ Forecaster ________________Dec__Jan__Feb__Mar__Apr__May___TOTALS _____ NCIC rank ________________________________________________________________ Had _ NCIC _01 ___ JONBOY __________________8.8 __7.4 __6.7__10.0__9.4 __3.9 ___ 46.2 _ 44.2 ____ _ 02 _02 ___ SINGULARITY _____________ 5.2 __7.0 __9.1 __7.7 __5.6 __8.4 ___ 43.0 _ 44.3 ____ _ 01 _03 ___ NORRANCE _______________ 7.0 __2.2 __9.6 __9.3 __4.7__10.0___ 42.8 _ 41.7 ____ _ 05 _04 ___ POLAR GAEL ______________ 4.6 __9.0 __9.5 __2.6 __6.9 __9.8 ___ 42.4 _ 43.0 ____ _ 03 _05 ___ BORN FROM THE VOID _____ 6.4 __9.8 __3.5 __5.7 __6.3 __9.6 ___ 41.3 _ 41.9 ____ _ 04 _06 ___ SEASIDE 60 _______________ 5.8 __4.3 __5.2 __8.8__10.0__5.7 ___ 39.8 _ 37.4 ____ _ 08 _07 ___ DON _____________________ 1.8 __5.7 __8.4 __8.3 __9.8 __4.7 ___ 38.7 _ 36.7 ____ _ 09 _08 ___ J10 ______________________ 4.4 __7.6 __0.7 __8.3 __7.7 __9.6 ___ 38.3 _ 40.0 ____ _ 06 _09 ___ STEVE B __________________7.4 __8.2 __3.5 __8.8 __9.4 __0.2 ___ 37.5 _ 35.6 ____ _ 12 _10 ___ STEWFOX ________________ 7.0 __9.6 __4.0 __8.9 __6.9 __0.6 ___ 37.0 _ 38.1 ____ _ 07 _11 ___ DKEANE3 _________________ 7.2 __7.8 __5.6 __9.1 __3.5 __2.8 ___ 36.0 _ 35.5 ____ _ 13 (12) ___ consensus ________________ 5.2 __5.9 __5.4 __5.7__6.5 __5.9 ___ 34.6 _ 35.2 ____ _ (14) (12) ___ average 1981-2010 __________7.6 __6.6 __5.5 __5.0 __2.3 __7.3 ___ 34.3 _ 33.7 ____ _ (15) _12 ___ SIMSHADY ________________ 7.8 __7.6 __0.4 __7.2 __9.4 __1.8 ___ 34.2 _ 35.8 ____ _ 11 _13 ___ GODBER.1 _________________2.4 __7.2 __5.9 __3.5 __6.3 __8.6 ___ 33.9 _ 36.3 ____ _ 10 _14 ___ SYED2878 _________________ 4.8__10.0__3.8__5.0 __3.2 __7.0 ___ 33.8 _ 31.9 ____ _ 19 T15 ___ DAVEHSUG ________________1.0 __1.2__10.0__4.8 __9.4 __7.0 ___ 33.4 _ 31.4 ____ _ 20 T15 ___ DR (S) NO _________________ 9.6 __8.4 __1.2 __6.2 __5.6 __2.4 ___ 33.4 _ 34.8 ____ _ 14 _17 ___ BOBD29 ___________________3.2 __6.6 __5.0 __5.9 __8.4 __2.0 ___ 33.1 _ 30.2 ____ _ 21 _18 ___ CHRIS BELL NOT THE WxMAN_9.4 __6.8 __2.6 __6.4 __3.7__4.1 ___ 33.0 _ 33.7 ____ _ 15 (19)___ average 1988-2017 (Dec 87-16)_7.7 __8.3 __3.9 __3.4 __2.2 __7.3 ___ 32.8 _ 32.3 ____ _ (19) _19 ___ MULZY ____________________7.0 __8.8 __7.1 __0.9 __1.6 __7.2 ___ 32.6 _ 33.2 ____ _ 17 _20 ___ MIDLANDS ICE AGE _________3.4 __3.3 __9.1 __9.6 __3.2 __3.0 ___ 31.6 _ 33.1 ____ _ 18 _21 ___ MAPANTZ __________________5.2 __6.3 __1.9 __4.3 __5.6 __9.2 ___ 31.5 _ 33.4 ____ _ 16 _22 ___ REEF _____________________ 8.6 __5.5 __2.8 __3.8 __1.6 __8.2 ___ 30.5 _ 30.1 ____ _ 22 _23 ___ WEATHER-HISTORY _________0.6 __3.3 __6.1 __2.6 __9.6 __7.6 ___ 29.8 _ 28.4 ____ _T26 _24 ___ THE_PIT ___________________ 6.0 __1.0 __8.4 __1.4 __3.4 __9.2 ___ 29.2 _ 28.6 ____ _ 25 _25 ___ VIZZY2004 _________________8.6 __8.6 __8.8 __2.6 __0.5 __---- ___ 29.1 _ 30.0 ____ _ 23 _26 ___ DANIEL* ___________________ 3.8 __5.1 __4.9 __4.3 __5.8 __5.1 ___ 29.0 _ 28.4 ____ _T26 _27 ___ PEGG24 ___________________9.2 __5.1 __0.7 __6.2 __6.3 __1.2 ___ 28.7 _ 29.5 ____ _ 24 _28 ___ STARGAZER _______________ 1.4 __9.6 __2.4 __7.1 __2.3 __5.1 ___ 27.9 _ 27.5 ____ _T30 _29 ___ RELATIVISTIC ______________ 8.0 __2.2 __8.4 __1.2 __7.5 __0.4 ___ 27.7 _ 24.3 ____ _ 36 _30 ___ TIMMYTOUR _______________10.0 __0.2 __6.5 __1.7 __---- __9.2 ___ 27.6 _ 27.5 ____ _T-30 _31 ___ DAVID SNOW_______________ 2.2 __3.3 __9.5 __5.7 __4.7 __2.2 ___ 27.4 _ 27.4 ____ _T32 T32 ___ VIRTUALSPHERE ___________ 4.4 __1.2 __6.7 __1.6 __9.4 __3.3 ___ 26.6 _ 27.9 ____ _ 29 T32 ___ RADIATING DENDRITE _______ 2.0 __2.4 __8.9 __4.5 __1.8 __7.0 ___ 26.6 _ 27.4 ____ _T-32 _34 ___ ROGER J SMITH ____________ 0.2 __1.8 __6.7 __9.8 __3.9 __3.5 ___ 25.9 _ 28.1 ____ _ 28 _35 ___ DAMI ______________________ 5.4 __3.9 __0.9 __5.7 __1.6 __8.2 ___ 25.7 _ 25.1 ____ _ 34 _36 ___ LET IT SNOW ! ______________---- __---- __7.9 __6.5 __7.5 __3.7 ___ 25.6 _ 23.5 ____ _ 40 _37 ___ WEATHER 26 _______________---- __4.5 __4.5 __9.5 __0.9 __5.3 ___ 24.7 _ 24.1 ____ _ 37 T38 ___ CHRIS. R __________________ 6.2 __0.6 __9.6 __7.9 __ ---- __---- ___ 24.3 _ 24.0 ____ _ 38 T38 ___ JEFF C ____________________ 7.6 __4.9 __1.1 __3.3 __2.7 __4.7 ___ 24.3 _ 23.7 ____ _ 39 _40 ___ KIRKCALDY WEATHER_______ ---- __---- __3.5 __8.8 __8.4 __2.6 ___ 23.3 _ 24.9 ____ _ 35 _45 ___ DIAGONAL RED LINE ________ ---- __---- __2.1 __6.9 __5.6 __7.6 ___ 22.2 _ 22.2 ____ _ 41 _41 ___ DOCTOR32 _________________1.6 __3.9 __6.7 __5.0 __2.7 __1.4 ___ 21.3 _ 21.4 ____ _ 42 _42 ___ PROLONGED SNOWLOVER___ 3.6 __0.8 __1.6 __3.3 __8.0 __---- ___ 17.3 _ 19.1 ____ _ 44 _43 ___ GREAT PLUM _______________ ---- __---- __8.4 __7.4 __---- __---- ___ 15.8 _ 14.8 ____ _ 45 _44 ___ STATIONARY FRONT _________ 1.2 __4.7 __6.5 __2.6 __0.7 __5.9 ___ 21.6 _ 21.1 ____ _ 43 _46 ___ FOZFOSTER ________________ ---- __5.5 __4.5 __3.8 __---- __---- ___ 13.8 _ 13.4 ____ _ 47 _47 ___ ED STONE __________________4.4 __1.6 __4.2 __1.2 __2.1 __---- ___ 13.5 _ 13.6 ____ _ 46 _48 ___ RAIN RAIN RAIN _____________ ---- __2.4__10.0__---- __---- __---- ___ 12.4 _ 12.4 ____ _ 49 _49 ___ ALEXISJ9 ___________________2.8 __6.1 __1.9 __---- __0.2 __1.0 ___ 12.0 _ 11.4 ____ _ 50 _50 ___ BLAST FROM THE PAST ______ 0.8 __0.0 __3.5 __2.6 __---- __4.7 ___11.6 __12.8 ____ _ 48 _51 ___ TERMINAL MORAINE _________ 9.8 __---- __---- __---- __---- __---- ____ 9.8 __ 9.6 ____ _ 51 _52 ___ V FOR VERY COLD ___________ 9.0 __---- __---- __---- __---- __---- ____ 9.0 __ 7.6 ____ _ 60 _53 ___ NORTHWEST SNOW __________---- __---- __8.9 __ ---- __---- __---- ____ 8.9 __ 9.5 ____ _ 52 _54 ___ THUNDERY WINTRY SHOWERS 8.2 __---- __---- __---- __---- __ ---- ____ 8.2 __ 8.6 ____ _ 55 _55 ___ LETTERBOXER ______________ ---- __---- __3.6 __---- __ 4.3 __---- ____ 7.9 __8.5 ____ _ 56 _55 ___ B87 ________________________ ----__---- __---- __---- __ ---- __ 7.8 ____ 7.8 __ 9.2 ____ _ 54 T57 ___ CORAM _____________________---- __---- __---- __7.7 __ ---- __---- ____ 7.7 __ 7.7 ____ _T-58 T57 ___ IAPENNELL __________________---- __5.9 __---- __---- __---- __1.8 ____ 7.7 __ 8.1 ____ _ 57 _59 ___ CAPTAIN SHORTWAVE ________---- __---- __---- __ 0.5 __7.1 __---- ____ 7.6 __ 9.3 ____ _ 53 _60 ___ BOOFERKING _______________ 3.0 __4.5 __---- __---- __ ---- __---- ____ 7.5 __ 7.7 ____ _T-58 _61 ___ RICEY076 ___________________ ---- __---- __---- __6.9 __---- __---- ____ 6.9 __ 6.9 ____ _ 62 _62 ___ CHEESEPUFFSCOTT __________----__---- __---- __---- __ ----__ 6.3 ____ 6.3 __ 5.7 ____ _ 65 _63___ MOORLANDER _______________ 5.8 __---- __---- __ 0.4 __---- __---- ____ 6.2 __ 6.3 ____ _ 63 _64 ___ LF1002 ______________________----__---- __---- __---- __ ----__ 6.1 ____ 6.1 __ 7.0 ____ _ 61 T65 ___ TJM14 ______________________ ----__---- __---- __---- __ ----__ 5.9 ____ 5.9 __ 5.3 ____ _ 66 T65 ___ JAMES M ____________________---- __---- __5.9 __---- __---- __---- ____ 5.9 __ 5.9 ____ _ 64 _67 ___ ROSS90 ____________________ ---- __---- __5.4 __---- __---- __ ---- ____ 5.4 __ 5.0 ____ _T-68 _68 ___ CASTELLANUS80 ____________ ---- __2.8 __2.3 __---- __---- __ ---- ____ 5.1 __ 5.1 ____ _ 67 _69 ___ BACKTRACK_________________---- __---- __---- __5.0 __---- __ ---- ____ 5.0 __ 5.0 ____ _T-68 _70 ___ THUNDERSNOW DAYS ________---- __---- __4.7 __---- __---- __ ---- ____ 4.7 __ 4.5 ____ _ 70 _71 ___ HIGH GROUND BIRMINGHAM __ ---- __---- __---- __4.3 __---- __ ---- ____ 4.3 __ 4.3 ____ _ 71 _72 ___ MARK NEAL _________________---- __---- __---- __ 2.9 __---- __ ---- ____ 2.9 __ 2.9 ____ _ 72 _73 ___ MATT TARRANT ______________---- __---- __---- __ 2.8 __---- __ ---- ____ 2.8 __ 2.8 ____ _ 73 _74 ___ MORE SNOW ________________2.6 __ --- __---- __ ---- __---- __ ---- ____ 2.6 __ 2.6 ____ _ 74 _75 ___ SKY FULL ___________________---- __---- __1.2 __ ---- __---- __---- ____ 1.2 __ 1.2 ____ _ 75 _76 ___ ROBBIE GARRETT ___________ ---- __---- __---- __---- __---- __ 0.8 ____ 0.8 __ 0.8 ____ _ 76 _77 ___ LETTUCING GUTTED _________ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 __0.7 __0.0 __0.0 ____ 0.7 __ 0.2 ____ _T-79 _78 ___ WEIRPIG ___________________ 0.4 __---- __----- __----__---- __ ---- ____ 0.4 __ 0.4 ____ _T-77 T79 ___ COLDEST WINTER ___________ ---- __---- __---- __ 0.2 __---- __---- ____ 0.2 __ 0.2 ____ _T-77 T79 ___ I REMEMBER ATLANTIC 252 ____---- __---- __0.2 __----__ ---- __---- ____ 0.2 __ 0.2 ____ _T-79 _81 ___ DEEP SNOW PLEASE _________ ---- __---- __---- __0.0 __---- __ ---- ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ _ 81 __________________________________________________________________________________ (notes on ranking ... normals and consensus are scored as if they were participants, but lower ranking forecasters are not ranked lower as a result, so those rankings are shown in brackets.)

Bosh! Sharks are about.

One of the most intense Arctic cyclones on record whipping up the Kara Sea, a 3-4 day blowtorch (relatively speaking for the area) across the Laptev, and a warm+sunny type HP environment developing across the Pacific-Canadian sides that not only threatens extensive melt beneath, but sets up an at least brief dipole pattern. The actual sequence of events over the next 5-8 days may bare more resemblance to science fiction... but no - it’ll really be happening. It remains to be seen just how heavy the impacts will be on the sea ice via a combination of mechanical actions (mainly Kara), rainfall (Kara, Laptev, maybe even CAB for a time) and melt ponding (Pacific-Canadian sectors, possibly CAB at times)... but I fear they will see 2018 gain a lot ot melting momentum that will be hard to apply the breaks on this side of mid-late August.

They need to shovel all that ice up, with some raspberry flavoring that would make a nice slush puppy

Not really it's a bit chilly lol hope tomorrow is better

Same, still learning with them, but sounding said a few Marginal Tornadoes scenarios. Who knows. Hoping for a good lightning storm one night!

Well I ve never had the garden so weed free thanks to all this dry weather but there are now signs of drought everywhere.In spite of this the turnips that have germinated are motoring ahead and are now visible up the rows with a lot having the first rough blade so are almost passed the flea beetle vulnerable stage. Currently clear sunny and 15c

Exactly the same today as yesterday. Wall to wall sunshine and a max of 19.9C. I did ask for more of the same when I posted last night. Again please!

Sunny Sheffield at 17.2C +5C above normal. Rainfall 18.6mm 23.5% of normal.

As you may know, there are some problems in opening excel files on NW, it's not J10's fault that we can't easily open them, something is added to the attachment name by the NW software. The trick is to download the file then rename it so that .xlsx is at the end of the file name (all that other gobbledegook added by NW can go to oblivion), then get your own computer (assuming you have excel installed) to open the file even if you have to coax it through the "do you really want to open this file?" stages. I have just done that and here's the condensed version of the annual standings down to 30th place (if you're not in this list, you need to make some really good forecasts in part two of the contest year). The top ten can be seen in J10's summary post earlier, but I have included them in this list which is just the bare bones, names and total points. 1. Man with Beard ___ 494.7 _______ 11. pegg24 _______ 403.3 ________ 21. seaside 60 _____ 363.8 2. Don ____________ 468.8 _______ 12. damianslaw ____401.5 ________ 22. polar gael ______ 360.8 3. Norrance ________ 456.4 _______ 13. mulzy ________ 400.9 ________ 23. snowray _______ 355.0 4. doctor 32 ________ 451.7 _______ 14. Optimus Prime _ 396.8 ________ 24. summer blizzard_ 352.0 5. stewfox __________448.7 _______ 15. vizzy2004 _____ 395.6 ________ 25t -davehsug _____ 349.6 6. Godber 1 ________ 440.4 _______ 16. DAVID SNOW__ 395.0 ________ 25t -Ed Stone______ 349.6 7. Singularity _______ 425.1 _______ 17. metaltron______ 393.9 ________ 27. Radiating Dendrite 347.3 8. Born From the Void 423.9 _______ 18. dkeane3 ______ 393.3 ________ 28. stargazer ______ 345.5 9. The Pit __________ 415.1 _______ 19. reef __________387.4 ________ 29. weather 26 _____ 333.7 10. Steve B _________408.6 _______ 20. Mapantz______ 354.4 ________ 30. sundog ________ 323.7 The next ten without details are Midlands Ice Age, Summer Sun, Gael Force, Dr(S)No, virtualsphere, Mark Bayley, Duncan McAlister, diagonalredline, Roger J Smith, and ChrisBell-not-the-weatherman. ... 41st to end of regulars would be Kentish Man, Jeff C, Bobd29, dancerwithwings, weather-history, Kirkcaldy weather, Jonboy, Relativistic, dami, AlexisJ9, J10, Stationary Front, daniel*, syed2878, simshady, timmytour, Chris R, I Remember Atlantic 252, Blast from the Past, Let it snow!, Prolonged Snow Lover, Lettucing gutted

This pattern has been good for the north west of england, its been mostly dry sunny and warm for the past 3 weeks or more with just odd cloudy days, but even those cloudy days have been the rare , just wish we got a few storms thrown in though

Scoring for May EWP contest The NCIC version is 48.8 mm. __ Full scoring tables here ___ https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/75427-cet-competition-the-scores-ongoing/?page=9 Top scores for May and annual follow ... MAY EWP scoring Rank _ Score _ Forecast _ Error __ Forecaster 1. _____10.0 ___ 48.0 __ -0.8 ___ GODBER.1 2. _____ 9.8 ___ 50.0 __ +1.2 ___ J10 3. _____ 9.6 ___ 50.1 __ +1.3 ___ POLAR GAEL 4. _____ 9.4 ___ 51.0 __ +2.2 ___ NORRANCE 5. _____ 9.2 ___ 45.0 __ -3.8 ___ B87 6. _____ 9.0 ___ 54.0 __ +5.2 ___ BORN FROM THE VOID T7 _____ 8.8 ___ 55.0 __ +6.2 ___ TIMMYTOUR, THE PIT, MAPANTZ 10. _____ 8 2 ___ 42.0 __ -6.6 ___ MULZY 11. _____ 8.0 ___ 56.0 __ +7.2 ___ SINGULARITY T12 ____ 7.8 ___ 41.0 __ -7.8 ___ RADIATING DENDRITE, DAVEHSUG T14 ____ 7.4 ___ 58.0 __ +9.2___ DAMI, REEF Annual Scoring Update (Dec 2017 to May 2018) -- top scores Rank __ Forecaster _________________Dec__Jan__Feb__Mar__Apr__May___TOTAL __ previous rank _01 ___ SINGULARITY ______________5.2 __7.2 __9.8 __7.7 __6.4 __8.0 ___ 44.3 ____ _ 03 _02 ___ JONBOY __________________ 9.2 __7.8 __6.4 __9.6 __7.5 __3.7 ___ 44.2 ____ _ 01 _03 ___ POLAR GAEL _______________4.6 __9.4 __8.6 __2.6 __8.2 __9.6 ___ 43.0 ____ _ 06 _04 ___ BORN FROM THE VOID ______6.4 __9.8 __3.5 __5.7 __7.5 __9.0 ___ 41.9 ____ _ 07 _05 ___ NORRANCE ________________7.0 __2.2 __8.4 __9.3 __5.4 __9.4 ___ 41.7 ____ _T-11 _06 ___ J10 _______________________4.4 __7.6 __0.7 __8.3 __9.2 __9.8 ___ 40.0 ____ _ 13 _07 ___ STEWFOX _________________ 7.0 __9.4 __4.0 __8.9 __8.2 __0.6 ___ 38.1 ____ _ 02 _08___ SEASIDE 60 ________________ 5.8 __4.5 __4.8 __8.8 __8.4 __ 5.1 ___ 37.4 ____ _ T-11 _09 ___ DON ______________________ 1.8 __6.1 __7.4 __8.3 __8.8 __4.3 ___ 36.7 ____ _T-09 _10 ___ GODBER.1 _________________ 2.4 __7.4 __5.5 __3.5 __7.5 _10.0 ___ 36.1 ____ _ 19 _11 ___ SIMSHADY _________________ 8.2 __8.4 __0.4 __7.2 __9.8 __1.8 ___ 35.8 ____ _ 05 _12 ___ STEVE B ___________________7.4 __8.2 __3.5 __8.8 __7.5 __0.2 ___ 35.6 ____ _ 04 _13 ___ DKEANE3 __________________ 7.2 __7.6 __5.2 __9.1 __3.6 __2.8 ___ 35.5 ____ _ 08 (14) ___ consensus _________________ 5.2 __6.3 __5.0 __5.7__7.7 __5.3 ___ 35.2 ____ _ (16) _14 ___ DR (S) NO __________________9.8 __8.8 __1.2 __6.2 __6.4 __2.4 ___ 34.8 ____ _T-09 (15) ___ average 1981-2010 __________ 7.8 __7.0 __5.1 __5.0 __2.6 __6.4 ___ 33.9 ____ _ (19) _15 ___ CHRISBELL-NOTTHEWxMAN _ 10.0__6.8 __2.6 __6.4 __4.0 __3.9 ___ 33.7 ____ _ 16 _16 ___ MAPANTZ __________________ 5.2 __6.8 __1.9 __4.3 __6.4 __8.8 ___ 33.4 ____ _ 24 _17 ___ MULZY _____________________7.0 __8.6 __6.7 __0.9 __1.8 __8.2 ___ 33.2 ____ _ 22 _18 ___ MIDLANDS ICE AGE __________3.4 __3.3 __9.8_ 10.0 __3.6 __3.0 ___ 33.1 ____ _ 14 (19)___ average 1988-2017 (Dec 87-16)__7.9 __8.3 __3.9 __3.4 __2.4 __6.4 ___ 32.3 ____ _ (20) _19 ___ SYED2878 __________________4.8 _ 10.0__3.8 __5.0 __2.2 __6.1 ___ 31.9 ____ _ 20 _20 ___ DAVEHSUG _________________1.0 __1.2 __9.1 __4.8 __7.5 __7.8 ___ 31.4 ____ _ 27 (notes on ranking ... normals and consensus are scored as if they were participants, but lower ranking forecasters are not ranked lower as a result, so those rankings are shown in brackets.) Very close at the top of the annual scoring, Singularity edged ahead of Jonboy by just 0.1 with Polar Gael, Born from the Void and Norrance in close pursuit. I will update the alternate Hadley scoring table when they report their version.

Scoring for May EWP contest The NCIC version is 48.8 mm. Rank _ Score _ Forecast _ Error __ Forecaster 1. _____10.0 ___ 48.0 __ -0.8 ___ GODBER.1 2. _____ 9.8 ___ 50.0 __ +1.2 ___ J10 3. _____ 9.6 ___ 50.1 __ +1.3 ___ POLAR GAEL 4. _____ 9.4 ___ 51.0 __ +2.2 ___ NORRANCE 5. _____ 9.2 ___ 45.0 __ -3.8 ___ B87 6. _____ 9.0 ___ 54.0 __ +5.2 ___ BORN FROM THE VOID T7 _____ 8.8 ___ 55.0 __ +6.2 ___ TIMMYTOUR, THE PIT, MAPANTZ 10. _____ 8 2 ___ 42.0 __ -6.6 ___ MULZY 11. _____ 8.0 ___ 56.0 __ +7.2 ___ SINGULARITY T12 ____ 7.8 ___ 41.0 __ -7.8 ___ RADIATING DENDRITE, DAVEHSUG T14 ____ 7.4 ___ 58.0 __ +9.2___ DAMI, REEF 16. _____7.0 ___ 39.0 __ -9.8 ___ LF1002 T17 ____ 6.8 ___ 60.0 __+11.2___ DIAGONALREDLINE, WEATHER-HISTORY (T19)___ 6.4 ___ 61.1 __+12.3___ average 1981-2010, average 1988-2017 19. ____ 6.3 ___ 35.0 __-13.8 ___ DANIEL* 20. _____6.1 ___ 63.0 __+14.2 ___ SYED2878 21. _____5.9 ___ 34.0 __-14.8 ___ BLAST FROM THE PAST 22. _____5.7 ___ 64.0 __+15.2 ___ CHEESEPUFFSCOTT 23. _____5.5 ___ 32.0 __-16.8 ___ ROGER J SMITH T24 ____ 5.3 ___ 68.0 __+19.2 ___ TJM14, STATIONARY FRONT, Consensus 26. _____ 5.1 ___ 68.0 __+19.2 ___ SEASIDE 60 (5.3 - 0.2) 27. _____ 4.7 ___ 68.8 __+20.0 ___ WEATHER26 28. _____ 4.5 ___ 69.0 __+20.2 ___ STARGAZER T29 _____4.3 ___ 70.0 __+21.2 ___ JEFF C, DON 31. _____ 3.9 ___ 70.8 __+22.0 ___ CHRISBELL-not-the-WEATHERMAN 32. _____ 3.7 ___ 71.0 __+22.2 ___ JONBOY 33. _____ 3.5 ___ 71.5 __+22.7 ___ LET IT SNOW! T34 _____3.0 ___ 72.0 __+23.2 ___ VIRTUALSPHERE (3.2 - 0.2) T34 _____3.0 ___ 72.1 __+23.3 ___ MIDLANDS ICE AGE 36. _____ 2.8 ___ 73.2 __+24.4 ___ DKEANE3 37. _____ 2.6 ___ 76.0 __+27.2 ___ KIRKCALDY WEATHER 38. _____ 2.4 ___ 77.7 __+28.9 ___ DR(S)NO 39. _____ 2.2 ___ 80.0 __+31.2 ___ DAVID SNOW 40. _____ 2.0 ___ 83.0 __+34.2 ___ BOBD29 T41 _____1.8 ___ 85.0 __+36.2 ___ SIMSHADY, IAPENNELL 43. _____ 1.4 ___ 86.0 __+37.2 ___ DOCTOR32 44. _____ 1.2 ___ 87.0 __+38.2 ___ PEGG24 45. _____ 1.0 ___ 95.0 __+46.2 ___ ALEXISJ9 46. _____ 0.8 ___ 97.0 __+48.2 ___ ROBBIE GARRETT 47. _____ 0.6 ___ 98.0 __+49.2 ___ STEWFOX 48. _____ 0.4 ___100.0__+51.2 ___ RELATIVISTIC 49. _____ 0.2 ___120.0__+71.2 ___ STEVE B 50. _____ 0.0 ___200.0__+151.2__ LETTUCING GUTTED ============================================================== Annual Scoring Update (Dec 2017 to May 2018) Rank __ Forecaster _________________Dec__Jan__Feb__Mar__Apr__May___TOTAL __ previous rank _01 ___ SINGULARITY ______________5.2 __7.2 __9.8 __7.7 __6.4 __8.0 ___ 44.3 ____ _ 03 _02 ___ JONBOY __________________ 9.2 __7.8 __6.4 __9.6 __7.5 __3.7 ___ 44.2 ____ _ 01 _03 ___ POLAR GAEL _______________4.6 __9.4 __8.6 __2.6 __8.2 __9.6 ___ 43.0 ____ _ 06 _04 ___ BORN FROM THE VOID ______6.4 __9.8 __3.5 __5.7 __7.5 __9.0 ___ 41.9 ____ _ 07 _05 ___ NORRANCE ________________7.0 __2.2 __8.4 __9.3 __5.4 __9.4 ___ 41.7 ____ _T-11 _06 ___ J10 _______________________4.4 __7.6 __0.7 __8.3 __9.2 __9.8 ___ 40.0 ____ _ 13 _07 ___ STEWFOX _________________ 7.0 __9.4 __4.0 __8.9 __8.2 __0.6 ___ 38.1 ____ _ 02 _08___ SEASIDE 60 ________________ 5.8 __4.5 __4.8 __8.8 __8.4 __ 5.1 ___ 37.4 ____ _ T-11 _09 ___ DON ______________________ 1.8 __6.1 __7.4 __8.3 __8.8 __4.3 ___ 36.7 ____ _T-09 _10 ___ GODBER.1 _________________ 2.4 __7.4 __5.5 __3.5 __7.5 _10.0 ___ 36.1 ____ _ 19 _11 ___ SIMSHADY _________________ 8.2 __8.4 __0.4 __7.2 __9.8 __1.8 ___ 35.8 ____ _ 05 _12 ___ STEVE B ___________________7.4 __8.2 __3.5 __8.8 __7.5 __0.2 ___ 35.6 ____ _ 04 _13 ___ DKEANE3 __________________ 7.2 __7.6 __5.2 __9.1 __3.6 __2.8 ___ 35.5 ____ _ 08 (14) ___ consensus _________________ 5.2 __6.3 __5.0 __5.7__7.7 __5.3 ___ 35.2 ____ _ (16) _14 ___ DR (S) NO __________________9.8 __8.8 __1.2 __6.2 __6.4 __2.4 ___ 34.8 ____ _T-09 (15) ___ average 1981-2010 __________ 7.8 __7.0 __5.1 __5.0 __2.6 __6.4 ___ 33.9 ____ _ (19) _15 ___ CHRISBELL-NOTTHEWxMAN _ 10.0__6.8 __2.6 __6.4 __4.0 __3.9 ___ 33.7 ____ _ 16 _16 ___ MAPANTZ __________________ 5.2 __6.8 __1.9 __4.3 __6.4 __8.8 ___ 33.4 ____ _ 24 _17 ___ MULZY _____________________7.0 __8.6 __6.7 __0.9 __1.8 __8.2 ___ 33.2 ____ _ 22 _18 ___ MIDLANDS ICE AGE __________3.4 __3.3 __9.8_ 10.0 __3.6 __3.0 ___ 33.1 ____ _ 14 (19)___ average 1988-2017 (Dec 87-16)__7.9 __8.3 __3.9 __3.4 __2.4 __6.4 ___ 32.3 ____ _ (20) _19 ___ SYED2878 __________________4.8 _ 10.0__3.8 __5.0 __2.2 __6.1 ___ 31.9 ____ _ 20 _20 ___ DAVEHSUG _________________1.0 __1.2 __9.1 __4.8 __7.5 __7.8 ___ 31.4 ____ _ 27 _21 ___ BOBD29 ____________________3.2 __7.0 __6.5 __5.9 __5.6 __2.0 ___ 30.2 ____ _ 18 _22 ___ REEF ______________________ 9.0 __5.3 __2.8 __3.8 __1.8 __7.4 ___ 30.1 ____ _ 29 _23 ___ VIZZY2004 __________________9.0 __9.0 __8.9 __2.6 __0.5 __--- ___ 30.0 ____ _ 15 _24 ___ PEGG24 ____________________8.0 __5.9 __0.7 __6.2 __7.5 __1.2 ___ 29.5 ____ _ 17 _25 ___ THE_PIT ____________________6.0 __1.2 __7.4 __1.4 __3.8 __8.8 ___ 28.6 ____ _ 36 T26 ___ DANIEL* ____________________3.8 __5.9 __4.7 __4.3 __3.4 __6.3 ___ 28.4 ____ _ 32 T26 ___ WEATHER-HISTORY _________ 0.6 __3.3 __5.9 __2.6 __9.2 __6.8 ___ 28.4 ____ _ 33 _28 ___ ROGER J SMITH _____________0.2 __1.8 __8.1 __9.8 __2.7 __5.5 ___ 28.1 ____ _ 30 _29 ___ VIRTUALSPHERE ____________4.4 __1.0 __8.1 __1.6 __9.8 __3.0 ___ 27.9 ____ _ 23 T30 ___ STARGAZER ________________ 1.4 __9.4 __2.4 __7.1 __2.7 __4.5 ___ 27.5 ____ _ 28 T30 ___ TIMMYTOUR ________________ 9.4 __0.2 __7.4 __1.7 __ ---- __8.8 ___ 27.5 ____ _ 41 T32 ___ RADIATING DENDRITE ________2.0 __2.4 __8.7 __4.5 __2.0 __7.8 ___ 27.4 ____ _ 37 T32 ___ DAVID SNOW________________ 2.2 __3.3 __8.6 __5.7 __5.4 __2.2 ___ 27.4 ____ _ 21 _34 ___ DAMI _______________________5.4 __3.9 __0.9 __5.7 __1.8 __7.4 ___ 25.1 ____ _ 42 _35 ___ KIRKCALDY WEATHER ________---- __ ---- __3.5 __8.8 _10.0__2.6 ___ 24.9 ____ _ 31 _36 ___ RELATIVISTIC _______________ 8.4 __2.2 __7.4 __1.2 __4.7 __0.4 ___ 24.3 ____ _ 26 _37 ___ WEATHER 26 _______________ ---- __4.7 __4.3 __9.5 __0.9 __4.7 ___ 24.1 ____ _T-38 _38 ___ CHRIS. R ___________________ 6.2 __0.6 __9.3 __7.9 __---- __---- ___ 24.0 ____ _ 25 _39 __ JEFF C ______________________7.8 __4.1 __1.1 __3.3 __3.1 __4.3 ___ 23.7 ____ _T-38 _40 ___ LET IT SNOW ! _______________---- __----__ 8.8 __6.5 __4.7 __3.5 ___ 23.5 ____ _T-34 _41 ___ DIAGONAL RED LINE _________ ---- __---- __2.1 __6.9 __6.4 __6.8 ___ 22.2 ____ _ 44 _42 ___ DOCTOR32 _________________ 1.6 __3.9 __6.4 __5.0 __3.1 __1.4 ___ 21.4 ____ _T-34 _43 ___ STATIONARY FRONT _________ 1.2 __4.9 __6.4 __2.6 __0.7 __5.3 ___ 21.1 ____ _ 43 _44 ___ PROLONGED SNOWLOVER ____3.6 __0.8 __1.6 __3.3 __9.8 __ ----___ 19.1 ____ _ 40 _45 ___ GREAT PLUM ________________---- __---- __7.4 __7.4 __ ---- __---- ___ 14.8 ____ _ 45 _46 ___ ED STONE __________________ 4.4 __1.6 __5.3 __1.2 __1.1 __ --- ___ 13.6 ____ _ 46 _47 ___ FOZFOSTER _________________---- __5.3 __4.3 __3.8 __---- __---- ___ 13.4 ____ _ 47 _48 ___ BLAST FROM THE PAST _______0.8 __0.0 __3.5 __2.6 __---- __5.9 ___ 12.8 ____ _T-58 _49 ___ RAIN RAIN RAIN ______________---- __2.4 _ 10.0__---- __---- __---- ___ 12.4 ____ _ 48 _50 ___ ALEXISJ9 ____________________2.8 __5.5 __1.9 __---- __0.2 __1.0 ___ 11.4 ____ _ 49 _51 ___ TERMINAL MORAINE __________ 9.6 __---- __---- __---- __---- __ ---- ___ 9.6 ____ _ 50 _52 ___ NORTHWEST SNOW ___________---- __---- __9.5 __---- __---- __ ---- ___ 9.5 ____ _ 51 _53 ___ CAPTAIN SHORTWAVE _________---- __---- __---- __0.7 __ 8.6 __---- ___ 9.3 ____ _ 52 _54 ___ B87 ________________________ ---- __---- __---- __---- __ ---- __9.2 ___ 9.2 ____ _ --- _55 ___ THUNDERY WINTRY SHOWERS _ 8.6 __---- __---- __---- __---- __ ---- ___ 8.6 ____ _ 53 _56 ___ LETTERBOXER _______________---- __ ---- __3.6 __ ---- __4.9 __---- ___ 8.5 ____ _ 54 _57 ___ IAPENNELL __________________ ---- __6.3 __---- __---- __ ---- __1.8 ___ 8.1 ____ _T-60 T58 ___ BOOFERKING ________________ 3.0 __4.7 __---- __ ---- __---- __---- ___ 7.7 ____ _T-55 T58 ___ CORAM ______________________---- __---- __---- __7.7 __ ---- __---- ___ 7.7 ____ _T-55 _60 ___ V FOR VERY COLD ____________ 7.6 __---- __---- __---- __ ---- __---- ___ 7.6 ____ _ 57 _61 ___ LF1002 ______________________---- __---- __---- __ ---- __ ---- _ 7.0 ___ 7.0 ____ _ --- _62 ___ RICEY076 ____________________ ---- __---- __---- __6.9 __ ---- __---- ___ 6.9 ____ _T-58 _63___ MOORLANDER ________________ 5.8 __---- __---- __0.5 __ ---- __---- ___ 6.3 ____ _T-60 _64 ___ JAMES M _____________________---- __---- __5.9 __---- __ ---- __---- ___ 5.9 ____ _ 62 _65 ___ CHEESEPUFFSCOTT __________ ---- __---- __---- __---- __ ---- __5.7 ___ 5.7 ____ _ --- _66 ___ TJM14 ______________________ ---- __---- __---- __---- __ ---- __5.3 ___ 5.3 ____ _ --- _67 ___ CASTELLANUS80 _____________ ---- __2.8 __2.3 __ ---- __ ---- __---- ___ 5.1 ____ _ 63 T68 ___ ROSS90 _____________________ ---- __---- __5.0 __---- __ ---- __---- ___ 5.0 ____ _T-64 T68 ___ BACKTRACK__________________---- __---- __---- __5.0 __ ---- __---- ___ 5.0 ____ _T-64 _70 ___ THUNDERSNOW DAYS _________---- __---- __4.5 __---- __ ---- __---- ___ 4.5 ____ _ 66 _71 ___ HIGH GROUND BIRMINGHAM ___ ---- __---- __---- __4.3 __ ---- __---- ___ 4.3 ____ _ 67 _72 ___ MARK NEAL __________________---- __---- __---- __2.9 __ ---- __---- ___ 2.9 ____ _ 68 _73 ___ MATT TARRANT _______________---- __---- __---- __2.8 __ ---- __---- ___ 2.8 ____ _ 69 _74 ___ MORE SNOW _________________2.6 __---- __---- __---- __ ---- __---- ___ 2.6 ____ _ 70 _75 ___ SKY FULL ____________________---- __---- __1.2 __---- __ ---- __---- ___ 1.2 ____ _ 71 _76 ___ ROBBIE GARRETT ____________ ---- __---- __---- __---- __ ---- __0.8 ___ 0.8 ____ _ --- T77 ___ WEIRPIG ____________________ 0.4 __---- __----- __----__ ---- __---- ___ 0.4 ____ _T-72 T77 ___ COLDEST WINTER ____________ ---- __---- __---- __ 0.4 __---- __---- ___ 0.4 ____ _T-72 T79 ___ I REMEMBER ATLANTIC 252 _____---- __---- __0.2 __----__ ---- __---- ___ 0.2 ____ _T-74 T79 ___ LETTUCING GUTTED __________ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 __0.2 __0.0 __0.0 ___ 0.2 ____ _T-74 _81 ___ DEEP SNOW PLEASE __________ ---- __---- __---- __0.0 __ ---- __---- ___ 0.0 ____ _ 76 _____________________________________________________________________________ (notes on ranking ... normals and consensus are scored as if they were participants, but lower ranking forecasters are not ranked lower as a result, so those rankings are shown in brackets.)

Early June 1980...I can't remember the specific date as I was only 5 at the time! But I sure remember the storm! I was in reception class at school back then. I remember playing out at lunchtime, and the heat being so oppressive that I remember having to sit down on the floor in the playground and roll my sleeves up. It was so warm, despite being really grey and gloomy. Later, as we were getting on with our afternoon learning (probably plasticine or painting!!) the sky became incredibly dark. In fact it was like night time. And then a deep rumble. My teacher (A lovely, tall, grey haired lady named Miss Dean) declared "Ooh! Did you hear the thunder?" I quite simply burst into tears! I was so scared! I have no idea why! Luckily, Miss Dean let me stand at her desk and work beside her. The lights were constantly going off, then coming back on. The rain was crazy! And then it was playtime...No! My teacher had to do her playground duty (which on this day consisted of walking around the classrooms checking on the children). She took me with her as I was petrified of being left without her. I even went to the toilet and sat there with the door open so that I could see my teacher, such was the abject fear and terror! My mother came to collect me and my friend from school, bringing wellies and umbrellas. We waited until the rain eased off a little. My baby sister was at home being watched by an elderly neighbour as my mother didn't want to be pushing her around in that sort of weather. We finally got home, only a ten minute walk. I'll never forget being greeted by the sight of my elderly neighbour, sitting in the armchair, wearing her wellies and holding an umbrella above her head - indoors! Somehow the copious amounts of rain had got into the cavity wall and had cascaded into our back room. Our carpet and TV were ruined! We spent the next few months living in the other room whilst we waited for the carpet to be taken away, cleaned and returned. This was the most terrifying experience of my childhood, and left me totally frightened of thunder for a long, long time! During this storm, a boy at the local high school, and some of his friends, were hit by lightning. Sadly he didn't survive. Other storms will never compare to that childhood memory of fear...although a storm in June 2006 whilst on holiday in Exmouth came close, even as an adult! My eldest slept through it, my baby girl of 3 months old slept through it. My hubby awoke and then went back to sleep. I lay there in fear listening to the almost constant thunder, and watching the flickering lightning...wondering if it would spawn a tornado that would race through the caravan park! The next morning, the cafe on the campsite had been completely wrecked by the surface water floods that had occurred during the storm. July 1st 2015 also sticks in the mind - beautiful lightning - and then the rain! At the time we were having our loft extension built and were actually roofless!! How the plastic sheeting stayed watertight that night I'll never know! There seemed to be many storms in the early 80s...or perhaps I remember them because I was so scared?

Not the most prolific for lightning, but August 2013 produced a cell here with wonderful structure. we went up Kingsclere downs to get a better view of a cell rumbling away to our north east, but after about half an hour we could hear rumbling coming from behind the hill to our south west. we climbed up the hill and the thing looked truly menacing. Probably the closest thing to a supercell I’ve ever seen (apart from an actual supercell in france a few years back). once it moved over the top of us, the hail curtain moving in looked like something out of a horror movie and there were some very close lightning strikes and flashes as I legged it back to the car. here are some photos.

Nuisance sunspots continue to appear. Until a couple of weeks ago it looked good for achieving 100 spotless days in June but now I am starting to wonder if it will have to be pushed to July.

Allowing for the percentage figure to increase a bit then 2018 is looking at a total exceeding 220 days which is firstly the highest since 2009 but also puts us in 10th-15th place in the most spotless years on record.