Leaderboard

And back to the models For what it's worth here are the 500 mb anomaly charts and my comments in my file about them Saturday 2 june Ec-gfs and changes on ec with showing again a cut off low and main ridging ne of this = uk and Europe; gfs more like its chart above with stretched ridging from well west into Europe towards Scandinavia including uk but no cut off s of it Noaa 6-10 shows some ridging ne of uk still, less than chart above but a more w’ly pattern showing. On its 8-14 the ridge has gone and a weak trough shows over uk area from an overall faily slack westerly Overall then not a major pattern change, and again it may only be a blip but it does, and this fits with the charts over the past few days, a tendency for a more westerly based upper air pattern. But no major atlantic pattern showing so far. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Just came across this on YouTube. I can't wait for more of this!

Until if and when we see the MJO head on through the Pacific, we are effectively riding our luck in the low momentum environment, hoping that none of the disrupting troughs deposit a low right over us. Its intriguing that we’re seeing ECM suddenly lurch toward the undesirable outcome with the disruption at 5 days range; the exact same thing happened with respect to the low for last Wed-Fri. That time it proved to be a rouge run, though the low never adjusted as far back the other way as it had been, and the south has suffered from that. Perhaps the same will occur with respect to Wed-Fri next week? As much as it displeases me to type those words, I fully accept that even great summers usually have some more unsettled spells. Those which don’t are the rarest of the rare and not for the sane of mind to reasonably anticipate, no matter what the background signals - some degree of fluke comes into such a summer. Like, a tropical cyclone moving in the right way at the right time. As far as I see it, there’s true scope for a changeable spell during the second week of June, perhaps fresher too with Atlantic sourced air in the mix (but not necessarily!), but no reason to expect that to persist beyond that week unless the MJO forcing and upward GLAAM tendency is derailed. Fingers thoroughly crossed on that one!

Unfortunately, as far as I can tell without seeing the individual runs, the ECM ensembles seem keen on the UK trough evolution. Here's the mean and spread at T240: The higher uncertainty near Ireland would suggest low pressure there on some of the realisations.

If you want a June 2007 repeat then I agree, it looks fine. Ofher than that, it is a truly vile summer run.

If that ECM is correct it would be unbelievably unlucky considering where the jet has been running. It would also make a mockery of some of the medium term forecasts showing HP dominant over the UK in June.

Are you just going to ignore the much better looking ukmo 12z run?..we don't know yet what's going to happen with any confidence!

Maybe I was a bit pessimistic on the storm risk, having taken another look at things. On second thoughts, here is an improved map.

My take on the weather for this afternoon

Thunder here now and sky gone black.

Anyway, looking at the GEFS 00z mean, longer term, the azores high looks influential and the jet is well to the north of the uk.

Cells sparking off over the Pentlands again, warm and humid again much like yesterday and suns out so surface heating

Good news is the models..especially the Gfs 00z show high pressure building in next week with plenty of warm and sunny weather across the uk. And stav on radio 5 live said it too so it must be true!?️

Today sees the start of the transition away from the current humid and unstable airmass to a clearer regime by Monday. But in the meantime it has been another cloudy and humid night in many areas with high dew points as noted on the 0200 chart and the 0300 UTC geostationary WV So today will start cloudy in many areas but it will become quite sunny and warm in some, particularly north west Scotland and the south east which could easily trigger some storms, whilst the clear air will spread into the southwest/west. But another area of concentrated area of convection is already approaching East Anglia and points north and this will track north west during the day and places that catch a storm could see some intense rainfall and a danger of localized flooding.(even a couple of convergence zones on the fax Sunday will be a very warm day with temps well above average in places and with much clearer air over Wales and most of England just a few showers impacting the south west on occasion, But still a tendency for showers and thundery outbreaks further north The general pattern by Monday sees the Azores ridging strongly north east north of the UK wedged between the upper low in the western Atlantic and the extensive trough to the east. On the surface this initiates much clearer air over the UK but also a brisk north east flow which again will impact the eastern half of the country. Generally dry but still showers in the west, particularly N. Ireland and Scotland. Plenty of sunshine Tuesday but the usual caveat vis the east coast. A not dissimilar day on Wednesday but the onshore wind will have veered somewhat and some showers may creep into the south courtesy a weak front in the Channel

biblical rain this afternoon and contant thunder for an hour.... lots of flash flooding... by the time i came home was stunning evening... still 20 c on car at 9.00 and lovely sitting out.... not a cloud in sky just now and still feeling warm and no signs of a storm now

EC mean keeps temps above average out o day 10 although there are signs now that the air will become more Atlantic than continental longer term, Plenty of nice warm weather to enjoy in the meantime, with some thunderstorms to boot. If i were picky i would like to see a move towards sending the jet a little further north day 6 onwards-..

This from the Gfs 12z would be great wouldn't it...and followed by the azores high ridging in again and again..and again!?️

Yes there's no point trying to sugar coat it, but obviously i hope it's wrong although the models have been suggesting a cooler / unsettled blip towards mid june but I remain very encouraged by the MO extended outlook for the second half of June which currently indicates a potential return to very summery conditions right across the uk.

Evening all For many its been a prolonged period of above average temperatures which is set to continue in the near term though we are starting to see some agreement on cooler conditions towards the end of the week. This week also looks pretty settled for the most part with one or two cool nights for midweek but some warm days. The cooler weather unsurprisingly is coming from the west and whilst May is known for its westerly slumber, June can often see them pick back up again. So it wouldn't surprise me if a fair few of the GFS ensemble members verified. However one alternative is that the cooler air makes its way down to the bay of Biscay instead, something that happened during the middle of this week, whereas according to the more progressive GFS, the cooler atlantic air was supposed to make inroads but didn't. The GFS OP kinda goes in this direction with a low to the SW this time next week which has been a familiar pattern in recent times. However this time we have no Scandi high. Cooler air comes from the NE instead bringing in a cool mid June. The GFS ensemble members are more a case of bog standard westerlies. A few members do send a low west of Spain/ in Biscay and as a result warm air if wafted up from the south. The UKMO also seems to be heading in this direction so I wouldn't dismiss anything yet... even if this is a later chart something similar to this could pop up sooner ECM meanwhile is indeed a turd and we may have to go through some cooler Atlantic weather first. The early part of this month has some similarity to June 1982 I feel

Frosty, you are the most positive guy on here, and all power to you, but tonight's ECM 12z is a turd that cannot be polished! It is just awful. I hope it's a rogue run and will be gone in the morning.

Would it be so yuk though?..I mean sunshine and heavy, slow moving thundery showers is very interesting weather..in my opinion.?️

An actual proper, normal British summer day! Not crystal clear all day or with persistent low cloud/risk of showers as has been the case for so long. Started with broken Stratocumulus that gradually convected into TCu and fair weather Cumulus before dissipating through the afternoon leaving unbroken sunshine and Cirrus. Perfect maximum of 23.2c and a refreshing breeze.

Boy was that intense. Some serious flash flooding on main road through Banknock. Lots of thunder and lightning.

I live just over into Lancashire from the Todmorden end of the Calder Valley and sometimes in spring and summer we get a strong and very gusty wind from the Yorkshire side of the ridge that can last for a couple of days with little more than a leaf rustler a couple of miles away. only last spring I had a couple of fence panels blown out on a day when wind was never mentioned in the forecast.

Its growing in Lincolnshire and Norfolk

Hopefully this will help for some electrical activity later?

Look at that little cell that has popped up near Bourne came from no where

Temp showing 27c, very humid, really uncomfortable. Plenty of cells firing up now. It’s gonna be boombastic somewhere soon

Convection towards my west in the direction of @Blitzen & @Big Innes Madori 21.5C

The Gfs 6z shows more of the same summery weather next week with plenty of sunshine and following a few quieter days, the risk of thundery showers returns but temperatures next week are widely into the low / mid 20's celsius range..very nice...the azores high then ridges in with less showers and more in the way of dry and bright weather..there is a cooler unsettled blip through low res, especially further north but the azores high returns, at least for southern uk later in the run.

the only other latish snowfall I can remember was one evening mid May 1985. I was studying for my finals and lived high up in a block of flats next to Hanley park. It had been raining steadily & surprisingly it turned to snow for an hour or so. The park trees were in full blossom (mainly pink) and the snow stuck on the grass. Combined with the heavy grey colour of the wet paths it really was a pretty sight from my elevation . If only I'd had a camera!

Early start today, first cell's appearing north of lauder and over the Highlands.

On this day 1975. Walking back to school after going home for dinner. ....in the snow.

Morning all, Up early again with the mussus, before she set off for work at 6.30. Fortunately she only has a six hour shift today but fully expecting her to contact me later to tell me she's been asked to work the afternoon shift as well, that happens a lot. Looks like we're set for a lovely weekend, in our neck of the woods. Really miss working today, after I had to give up work, due to that Brain Haemorrhage. As some of you know, I worked for a Bookmaker's in Croydon. Today is Derby Day, on Epsom Downs and really miss the "buzz" and "craic", of Derby Day. Back in the early '90s, worked on the racecourse, itself. On one occasion looked after our clients, taking bets, in a hospitality box, where I met many racing "celebrities". Another time, taking bets on an open-top bus. It's a great "family day" out, on the Downs, with a Fun Fair, adjacent to the course. Great to sit out on the Downs, with a picnic but don't forget your sun cream!! I'm sure some members must have been to Epsom, on Derby Day. Let's hope the weather stays fine, for the great event and we don't see a repeat of the tragic events of, Weds 31st May 1911. Just after the Derby had been run, a spectacular thunderstorm, broke over the course. The weather in late May 1911 had been similar, to what we've had during the past week, unseasonably warm and hunid, although t/storms didn't break out, until the very end of May. On this day, t/storms broke out widely across the Greater London area, with devastating consequences!! Members might like to read the Royal Met Society's account of the event, on the link below: https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/wea.808 Many thanks, to the Royal Met Society. I did have misgivings, for this Summer, after such a warm, mainly settled late Spring. We've experienced quite a few disappointing Summers, after late Spring fine, warm spells, who knows where we go from here? But after reading accounts of that very warm, late May spell, the Summer of 1911, was hot and dry, perhaps you lovers of hot, dry Summers, may get lucky. Certainly looks like being a fine, warmish, start to June. See below, another account of that late May, very warm spell and reference to the following Summer. In 1911 we had a solid block of high pressure, away over Scandinavia, as we have now but we also have low pressure, over the Biscay/French region, this year, unlike 1911. "1911 A warm month - the start of a famous summer - and also sunny and dry. There were some severe thunderstorms over England on the 31st, resulting in lightning strikes, wind damage, and local flooding. 17 people were killed around London alone. The most famous of these storms was when 3 people and 4 horses were killed in the "Derby Day Storm" at Epsom; 14 people were injured, and 3 hayricks were set on fire. The storm drifted south throughout the afternoon, hitting Epsom just after the Derby finished. 90 mm of rain fell in 2 hours at Banstead, with violent lightning, and hailstones 50mm in diameter. In the centre of Epsom 72 mm of rain fell, most of it 50 minutes. The storm was at its worst 5-7 pm; between 5.30 and 5.45 pm, 159 flashes of lightning were counted - that's a flash every five or six seconds or so". Many thanks to Trevor Harley's marvellous website, for the above account. I hope the Forum Host doesn't mind me reproducing, the above, Epsom is in our region and it is weather related, after all. Hope you all enjoy your day, whether you're going to the Derby, or not. I'll have to make do with watching it on tv. Regards, Tom.

This one's not bad either

Father John Misty released his new album this morning, Dancer.............so let's hope KC and the Sunshine Band put something out next week! Bish

Missed here but could see convection developing later this afternoon

I'd be interested to see what people think of these shots - small funnel or not? They're of a cell that passed over this evening that appeared to show rotation - part of the base could be seen slowly spinning with swirls visible and protruding centre. A lowering then appeared from that region. After a while this shrunk and the spinning seemed to shift over. It had a very dark, low, scruffy cloud base and appeared to produce some intense rainfall from radar but not over me. No lightning. Initial rotation Cloud lowering Rotation centre shifts

It’s a very interesting start to summer and much different from what we’ve been used to for a good few years all down to around the solar minimum period from what I’ve read. So will we continue to see high pressure shaping Ne from the Azores or will it position northwards at some point. The difference between very wet and very warm. If it wasn’t for this nuisance 8 thing I’d have much more confidence in more of the former

I suspect they will go with 13.2 but either way these are the closest forecasts. Steve B has it for 13.2 and Radiating Dendrite for 13.3 ... ties are broken by earlier entries (this list includes the order of entry from the overall field) ... this is just a portion of a larger table over in the other thread. 13.8 _ DANIEL* (58) 13.7 _ 13.6 _ 13.5 _ VIRTUALSPHERE (64*) 13.4 _ RADIATING DENDRITE (12) 13.3 _ 13.2 _ 13.1 _ STEVE B (20) 13.0 _ POLAR GAEL (11) 12.9 _ MAPANTZ (46) 12.8 _ WEATHER26 (6), KIRKCALDY WEATHER (22), DAVEHSUG (59) 12.7 _ MAN WITH BEARD (37), SUMMER BLIZZARD (54), SEASIDE 60 (63*) 12.6 _ PEGG24 (5), SUMMER SUN (23), GODBER.1 (48), MARK BAYLEY (53) ===================== ========================= No sign of any EWP totals yet, would imagine 30-40 mm will do well.

It does seem at in the 6-10 day period we're going to see the jet steam move south from its outrageous position so far, here T144, T240 from GFS 12z: But if this is the 'return of the westerlies' then they look innocuous and temporary. GFS still keen to ridge the Azores high NE, here T300: GEM ends the run promisingly too: So to sum up my reading of the 12s so far, a settled week next week (sunshine variable on location) maybe more a NW SE split for a while and signs more promising thereafter, to be confirmed or not by subsequent runs no doubt. Edit, worth including the GEFS mean at T240, also supporting the Azores high still having an influence.

Building nicely.

Greetings from the bordering region and thanks for allowing me to post here. My first post of what is generally recognised as being the start of the meteorological summer. It was a year ago today that saw the beginning of what turned out to be the best spell of weather for the whole summer of 2017 here in St Leonards-on-Sea( East Sussex ). No repeat of that today though and this week we seem to have paid the price for last weekends fantastic Bank Holiday weather. It's been gloomy pretty much since then with varying degrees of mist, murk and muck with a bit of rain thrown in for good measure. Oh and not a storm in sight despite all the warnings. On a positive note we did get around 3 hours of decent sunshine on Wednesday afternoon here. Today saw a continuation of the low cloud and mist, with temperatures struggling up to 17.8c. Hoping for an improvement this weekend with the Hastings Jazz and Blues Festival and Hastings Town and Country Show taking place.

Caught the Cairngorms disappearing under a big dark mass on the way home at tea time, torrential downpour followed with thunder and a wee bit of lightning. Nice muddy river down the track for a bit. Temp had hit 24c by 10am so a really muggy feel, maxed at 27c. Feeling warm standing in Scottish rain is always a welcome novelty Similar affair tomorrow by the looks

I think the ecm would likely be slightly unsettled, pressure is low enough for showers to form.....Ukmo keeps the warmer feed and pressure that bit higher, and with an ESE feed probably send temps back to the 25-27c range. The good thing is no Atlantic onslaught whatever way you look at things!

Yes its an OK run all in all, temps above average for early June so possibly 20-25 , likely warmer towards the SE - cooler in the far NW but even here hopefully mainly dry. I suppose thundery activity could be possible with pressure around 1015MB as we head into next weekend. I suppose its potentially wrong with it being so different to ukmo at 144.

The lightning is this side of Hope Mountain @SarahWxm ?️

Noticed that, developed over the top of me, nothing more than just a few drops fell.

850s aren’t always a good indicator though....people play this game in winter! The North Sea is still pretty cool, so a brisk easterly, especially one set in for this amount of time will inevitably drag a lot of cloud on. Earlier in this spell it was decent here, but the last 2/3 days has been a tad cloudy for large parts of the day. The thing that has made it horrid is the 75-80% humidity we now have, 22c is feeling pretty rank to be honest. Much preferred the other warm spells in April and early May that had gin clear skies and low humidity.

Recapping on this post, it may be that it isn't necessarily much harder to sustain settled conditions, but it does seem to be much harder to sustain settled and consistently sunny conditions. There's a bizarre quirk in the UK's sunshine series from 1910 which shows that only three Augusts averaged over 200 hours of sunshine for the UK as a whole (i.e. 1947, 1995 and 1976) but all three had over 240 hours. In each case high pressure covering a large majority of the UK was primarily responsible. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Sunshine/ranked/UK.txt In contrast numerous Mays, Junes and Julys averaged over 200 hours of sunshine. My guess is that it's probably to do with August having weaker solar heating than May, June and July, meaning that low cloud doesn't burn off as readily during the daytime and so there is a stronger requirement for anticyclones to be placed favourably to get reliably sunny weather. An extreme case of this was the last week of August 2008, which brought a fairly settled and warm spell but ironically for many it was even cloudier than the wet few weeks that preceded it, due to a moist westerly flow on the northern flank of the high pressure. A more typical example was the second half of August 2003, which was mostly dry and anticyclonic but sunshine, while above the normal for most, tended to be variable rather than consistent. As for Summer 2018, I, too, am seeing parallels with 1992, with a lot of the signals suggesting a relatively anticyclonic June and cyclonic August, but this summer is likely to be a somewhat warmer version as the global temperature dropped considerably in 1992 due to the Mount Pinatubo eruption in 1991.