Leaderboard

Met Office have extended the warnings slightly further east into the East Midlands. However the greatest risk is further north and west today. I won't be chasing as I can't take another half day off work and I am finally burnt out after getting home last night at 2am. I have had my storm fix now for a bit ?

This from the Gfs 12z would be great wouldn't it...and followed by the azores high ridging in again and again..and again!?️?

A very much shortened video of the chase I went on back last Sunday (27th May). Very much shortened as the total edited footage amounts to just over 2 hours! I now have 4+ hours of footage to edit from yesterday's storm around Cheltenham and then last nights storms over the Cotswolds.

Day 5 Day 6 The GFS and UKMO perhaps suggesting that winds will start to veer more south easterly from the middle of next week onwards with a stronger draw of warm air from the south. So potentially after a couple of cooler and cloudier days to start the week we should hopefully see temperatures rise again into the mid or possibly high twenties. It still looks humid though with the shower risk probably increasing again.

May confirmed as 13.3C (adjustment of -0.2C), so joint 15th warmest on record. Doesn't look like anybody got it correct, but @Radiating Dendrite was closest, so congratz! https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html I'll update with a few stats in a couple of hours

An update on last night’s medium term anomalies as I see them and what appears to be an upcoming major test of the very impressive block The major players are the north Canadian vortex and associated trough into the north west Atlantic, which is connected to the main vortex N. Russia and cold European trough with in between the European and Azores still combining to formulate the strong ridge running north west into Iceland. But the orientation of the trough in the north west Atlantic has shifted a tad north east which effectively diverts more of the energy exiting north America south around it, albeit it still diverges in mid Atlantic around the block and down to the Iberian low pressure. So currently the UK remains in a very slack pressure area with high and low pressure to the north and south so likely the temp will remain above average but leaving the det runs with a lot of niggly regional detail to sort. But the question is will this transfer of energy and movement of the trough eventually wear down the block? Probably not rapidly? On to a few more details Over the next couple of days the UK will largely stay under the influence of the warm, moist, unstable air which is conducive to triggering heavy showers/storms with the possibility where these occur of localized flooding. As the airmass slowly shifts north, thus introducing quieter conditions in the south, then so will the showers/storms. Currently there is still shower activity over Wales (the 0300 UTC geostationary WV) whilst, apart from the north and north west, over the rest of the UK a muggy cloudy day dawns, But as heating gets under way convection will be triggered in many west and central areas spreading north and storms could crop up virtually anywhere. Where the sun appears it will actually get quite warm with the usual caveats vis Haar and the eastern coasts. During this evening and overnight there will be a lull in the storms but another humid night with a lot of cloud around in central areas and the Haar ingressing inland again in the east. But as temps rise again tomorrow more heavy showers and storms are triggered concentrated more on central and eastern regions but spreading north west into Scotland where their could be some very intense stormy outbreaks. Another warm day but 'cooler' weather slipping in to the south west. The overall pattern on Sunday sees the high cell to the north west becoming more influential with any residual showers mainly in Scotland and the north east but also that means back to a north easterly drift whilst elsewhere another very warm day. Monday sees a marked west/east split with warmer conditions in the west with the chance of the odd shower but much cooler and cloudier in the east in the brisk north east wind. Tuesday will be a generally dry and quiet sunny day but still with the west/east bias with more cloud in the latter half of the country

Building nicely.

Some spell of weather over the last few weeks, eh? Particularly in the west. In the absence of any profound meteorological observations to share, I thought I’d share a few photos taken out and about during late April and May (the first one being near Scotland’s snow capital - Crail ?). Will maybe manage some higher hills during the summer, depending on the weather! Old track, Balcomie, near Crail Old drove road near Broughton Mennock Pass South Queich, Ochil Hills (Lomond Hills in the distance). Old drove road near Skirling Friesian cattle below Loudoun Hill, Ayrshire

Well EC keeps the majority dry and warm out to day 10 this morning, the Atlantic is for sure making a move as we move through next week, GFS shows it getting in whereas EC just about has High pressure fending off the lows.

Very foggy last night and this morning Bold as brass yesterday evening two badgers wandered up to just outside the kitchen window (as we were looking out ) to hoover up the spilt seeds from the bird feeder. Must have been using the fog as cover. All the setts are on the periphery of the fields so they must have trundled across the fields for about three quarters of a mile to get to the garden. Currently 15c

The end of a memorable May, some convection today

Correct! I headed east as could not see any more happening where i was and ended up in Stow-on-the-Wold. I was then treated to storm after storm with big bright flashes, CG's and loud thunder. For a time there was frequent lightning too. In Stow itself I drove through some incredible rainfall, it was so heavy I had almost no visibility. Lots of flooding too. For a day that started to look like a disappointment after a forecast of severe thunderstorms, I can safely say I just witnessed a severe thunderstorm! What a great end to a great month for storms (well the last week of it anyway).

I'd be interested to see what people think of these shots - small funnel or not? They're of a cell that passed over this evening that appeared to show rotation - part of the base could be seen slowly spinning with swirls visible and protruding centre. A lowering then appeared from that region. After a while this shrunk and the spinning seemed to shift over. It had a very dark, low, scruffy cloud base and appeared to produce some intense rainfall from radar but not over me. No lightning. Initial rotation Cloud lowering Rotation centre shifts

Spotted something potentially interesting for tomorrow night/sunday morning a possible forth-clyde storm streamer (similar to a snow streamer but thunder instead LOL)

Great view of the cell between Milton Keynes and Cambridge at the moment. The anvil has been growing nicely with a lot of pileus over the past half an hour or so. The base was just about visible with a possible shelf cloud, although way too hazy for clear shots.

Non-event. One distant rumble, a few drops of rain and that was that. Nothing registered on the rain gauge, so that's now day 20 of no measurable rainfall. Sun is back out splitting the evening skies and it's 22C at almost 8pm. Braw!

It does seem at in the 6-10 day period we're going to see the jet steam move south from its outrageous position so far, here T144, T240 from GFS 12z: But if this is the 'return of the westerlies' then they look innocuous and temporary. GFS still keen to ridge the Azores high NE, here T300: GEM ends the run promisingly too: So to sum up my reading of the 12s so far, a settled week next week (sunshine variable on location) maybe more a NW SE split for a while and signs more promising thereafter, to be confirmed or not by subsequent runs no doubt. Edit, worth including the GEFS mean at T240, also supporting the Azores high still having an influence.

This is my professional opinion: (sorry about the quality of the map)

Indeed, and at day 10 the Ecm 00z shows the azores high / ridge looking poised to build back in subsequently.

It wasn't normal every day weather though was it? Granted the warning area was wider than need be, but I have only known my local station to flood twice due to flash flooding. My own street was impassable for a while....again rare. The volume of rain that fell in a short period of time was so intense I couldn't see the end of my garden. As it shifted to my north it actually increased in intensity. These events are very local and, yes, it is hard to imagine a town a few miles away where homes are being pumped out when you've seen nothing, but it happened and that's why the warnings were issued and rightly so.

Me Today.... and probably quite a few of you too! https://goo.gl/images/s4DHY8

Maybe. Though still a whole lot better than low after low barrelling in from the Atlantic with endless howling winds. If we had these charts in July or August then the North Sea crap wouldn’t be an issue. Often is a problem in May, though.

A shiny new thread for a new month and a new season. For some it has been a fantastic start the 2018 storm chase season with some strong thunderstorms around to end the month of May and the meteorological spring. Others have not been so fortunate if it is storms you are wanting. If you want to have a good old rant about the lack of storms then please check into the No Storms Club here: The old discussion is here - 155 pages in less than 2 weeks! Any talk about European storms that are staying in Europe and not coming here needs to go into here Please keep it friendly In here and good luck to all who want a storm during the upcoming summer.

As everyone embarking on the mid to late 40s dreams of, I've had to move in with my Dad for a while as he recovers from illness. He lives in a village that lies at the foot of the Pennines in Cumbria and is prone to the Helm Wind; apparently the only named wind in the UK. He's lived in the house for years, and while I know it can get windy there, I've never really experienced what the Helm Wind can do. Here area a few videos to give you an idea.... https://photos.app.goo.gl/2Pe8FFCLcWp3Dg7o2 Bear in mind that it can be almost dead calm just 3 or 4 miles away. I hate wind, but it can be quite pretty, particularly when it forms a Helm bar...a bank of cloud which breaks off and hangs over the Eden Valley. I still hate wind though.

Missed here but could see convection developing later this afternoon

No measurable rain here since 13 May.

Lots of thunder rumbling for the past 45 mins in the Wrexham area. Not seen any lightning yet. So humid it’s unbearable.

Wasn't quite the washout it was looking like it would be still pretty muggy but at least we've had rain

Escaped here so far; just some light drops at times with thunder in the distance all afternoon. Gone all dark and threatening oot now though. Which is great, as I've done the lawn etc. ?

A cell has developed near Liverpool airport

Some seriously impressive lightning from the train window as my train from Manchester approaches the West of Edinburgh.

Torrential rain and some thunder/lightning in Motherwell for 30 minutes since 2pm.

Hello Pete, You have not been reading the Politics Thread again have you? Kind Regards Dave

A warm and bright start to the first day of June. It's hard to remember the last time it rained - the last disappointing day of weather must have been in early May. Traditionally May can be the best month for dry, settled and sunny weather. The last couple of years aswell as 2012 and 2008 had spells of fine weather and 2012. You'd normally expect a spell of cool, unsettled showery Spring weather but other than the start of last month it was exceptionally dry, settled and predominately sunny and warm for a prolonged period spanning two thirds of the month. Some days have started off slowly but there've been a number of days of unbroken sunshine and a couple of recent evenings were completely clear with a large moon and bright star (Jupiter?). 25 C was the highest tempersture at Glasgow airport, May 2012 and 2017 saw 27C, and 20C was recorded on 9 days - equalling May 1992 and bettered only by 1980. It's been an unusually very interesting and ideal year of weather so far - normally we would have at least one non descript or disappointing month of weather. We have a seasonal, cold and snowy winter which persisted throughout much of the first half of Spring and climaxed with the Beast from the east. Typical Spring weather arrived in the second half of April and In contrast to early in the Spring, much of May had perfect early summer weather with exceptionally dry and settled weather. It's been a pretty dry year overall so far which really makes for a change. The only interesting weather missing from this year is a notable gale or thunderstorm. However it appears summer 2018 could get off to an explosive start with the potential for some thunderstorms later today and tomorrow. There's been plenty of activity in Europe and Southern Britain - my sister happened to be in London during the thunderstorm of last Saturday night. It's hard to remember the last time I heard thunder or saw lightning and there hasn't been many or any proper thunderstorms over the last 10 years. May 4 2006 was easily the most impressive and scariest thunderstorm I've experienced. I'm not expecting anything close to that event though I think today has the potential to be the most significant event since. I used to be more afraid of thunder of lightning - I now appreciate and enjoy it as a spectacle aided with access to radar and lightning maps - though I'm looking forward to the rest of the day with a sense of excitement at some thunder and lightning activity for the first time in a while and some apprehension about the potential for the most severe thunderstorms for a long time. I'm not expecting any supercells, funnel clouds/tornadoes or large hail but I'm expecting some interesting looking skies, heavy rain showers - potentially very heavy rain - which could make up for the lack of rain over the last month and some thunder and lightning but not of the intensity we've seen in other parts of the UK and Europe in recent weeks.

First cell already south of Penicuik ...

Storm Forecast Valid: Fri 01 Jun 2018 07:00 to Sat 02 Jun 2018 06:00 UTC Issued: Fri 01 Jun 2018 07:23 Forecaster: PISTOTNIK A level 1 is issued for parts of Belgium, France, SW Germany, parts of England and Ireland mainly for excessive convective precipitation. SYNOPSIS An ill-defined omage pattern covers the European sector. Between a deep polar trough over W Russia and cut-off lows over the north-central Atlantic and Portugal, a broad and shallow ridge stretches from the central Mediterranean region into Scandinavia. Near the surface, an anticyclone moves from Belarus into the Ukraine, while pressure gradients are weak everywhere else. Warm and moist air remains in place across wide areas of the continent. ... Belgium, W and S Germany, Switzerland, France, Spain, Portugal, Uk, Ireland ... Slightly cooler but still moist air is present behind the main convergence zone. Around 500 J/kg of CAPE will form after some hours of daytime heating. Scattered, disorganized afternoon storms pose a risk of isolated flash floods. Slightly enhanced deep-layer shear is present (1) beneath a further weakening jet-streak from S Germany into Belgium and (2) in N Spain ahead of the Portuguese cut-off low. Marginally large hail is not ruled out in these areas. Particularly low cloud bases over the British Isles indicate a possibility of one or two non-supercellular tornadoes, in particular if sea breeze fronts move some distance inland. the Ukraine, while pressure gradients are weak everywhere else. Warm and moist air remains in place across wide areas of the continent. http://www.estofex.org/cgi-bin/polygon/showforecast.cgi?text=yes&fcstfile=2018060206_201806010723_2_stormforecast.xml

Morning all, Up early with the missus, before she went off to work at 6.30, for a 12 hour shift, at a Care Home in Chislehurst, bless her!! As someone with Brontophobic tendencies, really felt like I "dodged a bullet", yesterday!! Couldn't believe we ended up having a thunder free, day!! With sferics popping off to our south and east, around this time yesterday morning, felt sure we were going to have some thundery rain, at least. Missing that, with such high humidity, felt it was sure to go "bang", during the afternoon but managed to miss that as well and from a selfish pov, was pleased about that too!! I stated yesterday,re the very high Dew Points we've been experiencing, they've been up to 16/17c, here in S.E.London, very unusual for this time of year, in this area. Not surprising we've had all this thundery weather. Since I've been up, have been watching that huge M.C.S.(I certainly think it's one), over Belgium/Germany, safe in the knowledge it's not coming this way!! Sorry Brontophiles!! We certainly seem to be stuck in a rut at the moment, with this long lasting sluggish, weather pattern. You hear in the Summer a lot, the oft quoted adage, three fine days and a thunderstorm but although it has only been late Spring, the atmosphere has failed to "freshen up", which is normally the case, after a thundery breakdown, in the Summer. I read on a thread, the other day, someone had a theory that this continued spell of blocking to our north, was a legacy of that very potent S.S.W., back in January but I really don't have the technical knowledge, to comment on that. And looking at the models this morning, this mostly fine, warm spell, looks like continuing for the first half of June. Models and Meto further outlooks have "hinted" at it becoming more unsettled, towards mid-June. Should this come to pass, I wonder which daily newspaper will use a phrased headline, on the grounds of, "Pest from the West about to ruin Summer". My money's on Nathan Rao and the Daily Express, what say you? After my stroke, I still get very fatigued and from a selfish pov, hope we don't have a very warm, thundery Summer. I did have the foresight, a few days ago to switch our lounge and bedroom fans around. The expensive, more efficient fan, now sits in the bedrrom and has certainly made the last few nights, much more comfortable. I bought it from Argos a few years ago, for £75, quite expensive but certainly money well spent and the most efficient fan I've ever had. The £20 Sainsbury's chap, now sits in the lounge. As you know, hot air rises and it certainly has in our "dolls house" sized bedroom. As those of you who live in the London area, know only too well, during very warm weather, our nights can become very uncomfortable!! So where do we go from here, your guess is as good as mine but from my own pov, I really hope it's not a very warm, long steamy Summer, for the reasons, I've given above. I actually typed the first half of that post left handed, as part of my "post-stroke" therapy, found it really hard, too!! Had a sock on my dominant right hand, felt like a glove puppet!! Anyway, enough waffling from me. Hope you all enjoy your day, Brontophiles and Brontophobes, alike!! Regards, Tom.

Where as independent EU member Ireland will grow at 5% this year.

I've seen much worse starts to summer than what the Ecm 12z shows..plenty more summery weather to come according to this..and an eventual end to the cool / murky north sea filth too when we lose the NE'ly / E'ly influence!

I shall not be making any contribution to the Scottish thread for the next wee while. After leaving a grey and muggy Scotland yesterday, and, after frustrating motorway congestion, now in N. France. How I miss the Rosyth - Zeebrugge ferry!

This looks very much like some good rotation and clearly a funnel. It can actually be quite hard to see the funnel shape from near underneath the rotation. Don't always need the lightning to get some sort of rotation.

Stuck record again weather wise. Light winds, humid and abundant sunshine leading to a max of 22C though feeling a lot warmer than that with the humidity. Some impressive cumulonimbus to the N/NW of us this afternoon so looks like Moray got some rain, none here. And to think this is just the first day of summer, fingers crossed more of the same in the weeks ahead.

Incoming

Yeah agreed nice little storm hopefully it reaches Chris. How much lightning is it putting out now?

I even managed to get a seat! I got on at Manchester Airport thankfully. It was carnage after that! Lashing down here with some rumbles around.

Very dark and big rumbles

Kinda got that look and feel about it now.

I think Arpege was showing a splodge of heavier precip over the area as was GFS - only had a chance to quickly look - think the main thrust of the action will be Western Scotland - I forgot to include Ireland in my map but there could be some meaty storms over there today. My "forecasts" are completely rank amateur and experimental bear in mind so i'm just seeing how they match up should anything transpire. Did OK yesterday with the Oxford area!

Towers already going up over the pentlands visible from embra and its warm already ...