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I find an ironic observation that people who don't receive severe weather in their very own back yard are the ones who complain about unwarranted met office warnings...... The met office amber warning is for parts of the west country and wales and is for the potential of excessive rain & potential flooding....I'm in the amber warning area and given the deluge we've had this afternoon and evening and surface flooding on roads, it's entirely appropriate.................Sorry, but it grinds my gears, the met office get a lot of unwarranted & unjustified criticism, they are professional forecasters and apart from the very few pro's on NW, I'd like any armchair expert on here to do better

Hi guys, First post here. Hope you enjoy. Here's the view in Brighton looking south east a moment ago. No processing/filtering on this image either.

Altocumulus Grimsleyanus?

I wonder if there's a lot of swearing going on in Retford?

Sun shining through the top of the cell north of Merseyside

There’s a ghost on the radar.

I'm sorry that the weather and it's forecasters haven't delivered to some of your expecttions. For me, who has been the victim of a flash flood from a single convective cell that destroyed my life and home in 45 minutes some 11 years ago, I'm glad that the kids had their play day today in the park where I now live without incident.

Some images of the cell that passed to the north of Andover moving west. Some definite structure for a while and possible ragged wall cloud.

Another post I have re-quoted, and this one only from yesterday, but its to illustrate yet again the caution of taking a pure NWP approach to evolution of the pattern and jumping to conclusions from face value intra day model suites (very much including ensembles and cluster data) that appear to suggest macro scale changes Furthermore, and even more potentially problematic, is then extrapolating those instant conclusions from a model suite (assuming that is they come to pass) for weeks ahead This happens in summer as any other time of year - its simply on a much smaller scale because of the absence of the snow and cold frenzy members who have no interest in weather or weather patterns beyond the winter. The expectations of tropical convection in the Pacific later in June does not support any extended withdrawl/suppression of the ridge that may occur around mid month. It rather implies a re-set of the ridge pattern thereafter as any such activity in the Pacific implies tropical low pressure systems there and associated westerly wind bursts - and these give rise to a downstream pattern that is also representative of a trough in the Atlantic and a downstream ridge response from this over Western Europe. Having said that, I happily accept I should maybe have made it more clear in that quoted excerpt that downturn of AAM is related to the conclusion (*or early aborting*) of a tropical cycle and return to the Indian Ocean ahead of the next one. Notwithstanding that, its hard to see at present how any downstream UK trough, should it evolve in the 10 to 15 day period, would sustain for a lengthy period, taking into account the factors relating to angular momentum trends (long term) that were discussed in detail both yesterday and previous posts to this over recent weeks which have continually attempted to weigh up the pros and cons of warm settled vs cool unsettled outcomes. On the subject of pros and cons, *should* tropical convection not attain amplitude and fail to engage the Pacific then extended prospects for further fine warm spells would start to run into trouble - but there is no reason to anticipate this at this stage and its way too far head to anticipate, assess and fuss about anyway. Its worth though taking this MJO periodicity plot of the last 3 months as support for fulfilling of June expectations. The recurrence factor and active orbit nature of the tropical cycle was also discussed yesterday and in previous posts Taking a non-NWP approach doesn't mean cast iron weather prediction accuracy. The very best professional cannot achieve that, let alone any internet weather enthusiast. But it does help avoid taking NWP snapshots in time and immediately drawing instant conclusions and forward extrapolative assumptions based on them,

Absolutely! Dinner, then Emmerdale.

Oh jeeze can we all shut up about the weather warnings. Either post about the current weather conditions or fog off

Really fed up of the met office bashing on here. If you look at the radar you'll see the rain fall is very localised. This afternoon Didcot, 5 miles away, had flash flooding,but I had diddly squat. It's the nature of storms and these peculiarities are why we're all so fascinated by them( well me!). If anyone knows better than the met office how to accurately predict where a storm will occur and,even better, how disruptive it's going to be then I suggest you invent an app and prepare to become an overnight millionaire. Edit:My street is now a river. This is usually followed by backing up of the sewers as they get flooded.

here is the storm that headed through Newport, about to hit Blackwood (SE Wales )

Things bubbling up quite nicely in a few areas. Meanwhile in much of Hampshire...

Intensifying right above me and rumbling away, no CG yet

one thing I've learnt over the years is if you want a spectacular frontal display, always keep your eye on *ahem* 'Brest' I'm talking about the weather you pervs.....lol

here's a shoe in prediction for ya.....looking at few posts on this page, i predict a riot

Maybe someone at the Met Office has been viewing this thread and has a cheeky sense of humour?

Morning all, Up early to take my all important, blood pressure medication. Have been watching sferics, dancing around to our south and east for a while. Looks like these areas of thundery ppn could merge, to give our region a period of thundery rain, as we go through the morning. You can see these areas of dense cloud, with embedded electrical activity, below, https://de.sat24.com/de It's not surprising we've seen so much thundery activity, in the past few days, with so much juice in the atmosphere and yet again this morning, dew points are high over our are area and especially so, to our south and east, as depicted below. http://www.meteociel.fr/observations-meteo/point-de-rosee.php As stated yesterday, seem to have my Brontophobic tendencies, more under control now, than used to be the case, thankfully. Had a really good Physio session at Orpington hospital, yesterday morning and continuing to make a decent recovery, after my Brain Haemorrhage, in Sept.2015. My therapist wants me to use the left hand side of my body, much more than I have been, as my left hand side was severely affected, by my stroke. Some of you may have seen BBC's political journalist, Andrew Marr, with a similar left-sided problem, after suffering a stroke. I also tend to let my left arm, hang limply. I'm very much right-handed anyway and using my left hand, is proving very difficult for me. My therapist has suggested a put something on my right hand, to encourage me, to use my left hand.So it's a case of "Put a sock on it", rather than "Put a sock in it" I shall be typing with my left hand too, in future. If you're about to read one of my posts, it may pay to have a tab open for "Google Translate" open, in Czech mode, as it could get quite interesting. I'm really thankful you can check what you've typed first, before posting. Hope you all enjoy your day, thundery or otherwise!! Regards, Tom.

One incident?.......go and have a look at the radar for the past several hours ( and still ongoing) for wilts/wales/oxon/berks & parts of somerset and then come back and say that today there was only one incident of a localised downpour and the Meto's warnings were unwarranted. In closing (and not directed at you specifically) some members in here need to look up what the Met Office warnings actually mean and their criteria before slagging them off in here ....Don't forget, the warning system is in place for Mr & Mrs Joe Public who dont' have access to information that we do here on NW....With reference to the warning system, the amber which is for an increased likelyhood of impacts from severe weather.....no where does it say definite and for every single location in the warning area.....to quote... " Yellow Warning: Yellow warnings can be issued for a range of weather situations. Many are issued when it is likely that the weather will cause some low level impacts, including some disruption to travel in a few places. Many people may be able to continue with their daily routine, but there will be some that will be directly impacted and so it is important to assess if you could be affected. Other yellow warnings are issued when the weather could bring much more severe impacts to the majority of people but the certainty of those impacts occurring is much lower. It is important to read the content of yellow warnings to determine which weather situation is being covered by the yellow warning. Amber Warning: There is an increased likelihood of impacts from severe weather, which could potentially disrupt your plans. This means there is the possibility of travel delays, road and rail closures, power cuts and the potential risk to life and property. You should think about changing your plans and taking action to protect yourself and your property. You may want to consider the impact of the weather on your family and your community and whether there is anything you need to do ahead of the severe weather to minimise the impact. Red Warning: Dangerous weather is expected and, if you haven’t already done so, you should take action now to keep yourself and others safe from the impact of the severe weather. It is very likely that there will be a risk to life, with substantial disruption to travel, energy supplies and possibly widespread damage to property and infrastructure. You should avoid travelling, where possible, and follow the advice of the emergency services and local authorities."

What's wrong with Cumulus crapus?

lol.....love that cloud name...a cloud that can't be arsed.....I'm going to use it in conversation....." I had a few beers last night, didn't get much sleep so I feel a bit cumulus mediocris" lol

Showing the latest 500 mb anomaly outputs. They continue to show ridging as being more dominant than troughing at 500 mb. To me they do, all 3, seem to show that the pattern is, over the past 4-5 days, trying to change slightly. The upper ridges on each of them is slightly further south than a few days ago. Whether this is just a blip or something else will only become apparent in a couple of days. If it does continue then it may suggest a more westerly 500 mb flow than for some time. I'll be keeping an eye on them over the next few days. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Imby the amber was justified. My street is impassable

I can't stop laughing about how quickly you'll alienate members on this forum with that kind of daft post

Why just focus on day 6?...the Gfs 12z indicates plenty of warm sunny weather for the next week or so with temperatures frequently into the low 20's celsius and some favoured areas around the mid 20's c..even the east coast is into the high teens c at times..not settled by any means but temperature wise, very decent. PS..awesome post again tamara

The words “late afternoon / early evening” are important ones to remember

Done everything in my power to get some rain - cut the grass, cleaned 3 vehicles, done some gardening and a bit of washing. Can't do more....

Just hit 29c on the SW coast of Norway. That's quite something for May. C

Lerwick, currently the no 1 hot spot in the UK at 19.1c. In the same air mass that is likely to provide Olso across the water with its highest ever May temp today. c

quote trimmed.....look up the definition & criteria.....i.e projected weather has the potential.....the clue is in the word....that is what some members are missing.....anyhoos, I'll leave it there to save me getting bombarded with messages to 'shut the fog up, and go fog myself'..............lol

I totally agree, I've lurked on here for years and it's this time of year that we seem to be stuck in a rut, the Azores tantalising close at 6/7 days out but a trough parked over us or an active jet bringing low after low off the Atlantic. The jet seems to be enjoying itself way up North this year.... Long may it continue. Regardless of the IMBY weather conditions day to day, I'm loving the warm and sun potential each day brings, and is continuing to do so for the foreseeable...

I've seen much worse starts to summer than what the Ecm 12z shows..plenty more summery weather to come according to this..and an eventual end to the cool / murky north sea filth too when we lose the NE'ly / E'ly influence!

Thunda!!! Get the f**k in!

Just regarding the Met Office Amber warning area, which took me by surprise given that Central Southern England seemed more at threat with Severe storms than The South West according to model outputs earlier. (Would love to see their models right now) But this area has caught my eye. Rapid clearance of any clouds during recent frames indicates the main area for potential IMO. With steering flows being NNW, this puts everyone in the Amber Warning area at risk. Possible good call by the Met? We shall see.

something is happening

Tomorrow and Saturday looking ripe for thunderstorms across most of Scotland. It feels very humid today so hopefully some of us get a good lightning show over the next couple of days and without any flooding. I hope I can see a repeat of 20th July 2016

Retford is now on par with Newton Poppleford

Heck @knocker just seen your earlier presentation for the weekend weather. You must have been up with the larks to present that ! Anyway what a great post. You should be at HQ to show them how to make clear and simplistic to understand forecasts with the correct rhetoric and clear graphics. Keep up the good work. Look forward to your snow graphics for next winter ! C

Referring and correcting to my earlier post, that in the channel is nowhere near a MCS by the way, and never was! A MCS would or have been throwing out tonnes of lightning and miles bigger. The term is used way to often nowadays, when really referring to a multicell storm at best. This is what a proper MCS looks like, just to bring things down onto a real level!

The UKMO upper air profile (500mb level ) at 144t it status quo. Again ,any convectional energy dissipates in a Northward direction followed by a renewed build of pressure in the north. The prolonged survival of this set up is quite something . Obviously it is a reverse set up to our normal management of heat energy in the summer. In normal circumstances any heat incursion into the British Isles is usually pushed away eastwards by a zonal North Atlantic trough/ flow. I think yesterdays post by @Tamara preludes as to the causes as to why this may not be happening so far in the early summer season as indicated by the chart below and that's the persistent of high pressure ridging to the north ,either with vectors to the west and east . The upper cold pool over Iberia can only help to sent any energy pulses in a NW ly direction ( against most seasonal norms ). Longer term , we may see an attempt by the Atlantic low pressure to move to its usual position in an Iceland direction but in the meantime the status quo persists and if this continues increased heat plumes are more than likely to be a feature of June weather

With the warm, muggy, air associated with the low pressure to the south drifting north over the next couple of days the spread of the unstable atmosphere will be conducive to a lot of storm activity, both home grown given the right trigger (temps) and imported from the continent associated with troughs within the circulation. The storms could occur virtually anyway but more prevalent in Wales and the midlands south today before moving north tomorrow. They could be very intense and where they do occur a distinct possibility of localized flooding. Settling down over the weekend as the high cell developing to the north west takes closer order. So today some storms probably triggered in central southern regions (forecast sounding) before the more concentrated area tracks north west through southern regions into Wales during the day. There will of course be plenty of sunny intervals elsewhere but the east coast again subject to low cloud and mist. The showers/storms will hang around in western areas overnight and through tomorrow and gradually drift north into Scotland. It will be another warm day in many areas but not cloudless, and not so much in Wales and the south west and the usual caveat vis the east coast but temps still generally above average. So as we come to the weekend the pattern evolving sees the the Azores ridging north around the upper low south west of Ireland before curving east north of Scotland. with a very slack gradient over the UK. Another warm day, less so in coastal areas, with broken cloud cover but the showers and any residual storms now really confined to Scotland. A not dissimilar story on Sunday except much of central and southern England and all western areas will be warm with the north east and eastern areas cooler with the possible ingress of cloud to boot. Sunday sees another relatively fine day but as the high pressure to the north takes closer order as the low pressure retreats a north easterly drift from the North Sea is once again initiated and thus quite a west/east split.

We’ve just had a thunderstorm wanting issued to the airfield. The most recent TAFs for the area: Exeter PROB30 TSGR Bristol PROB40 TSGR Cardiff PROB30 TSGR PROB40 is the highest probability you can get on a TAF, so smile if you are in Bristol, and cross your toes All TEMPO so ‘lasting less than one hour’

*Mid - Day Up Date* (Self Forecast) *Early elevated convection was only weakly electrified, degrading far quicker that initially forecasted. The remaining cloud cover, in line with model trends has lead to the shift of the MDT region, covering more of Wales and removing parts of the South West. The SLGT region has been extended to cover North Wales, while being removed from the far SE. This doesn't relate to the severity of the storms, isolated storms still may produce frequent lightning, large hail and excessive rainfall within the SLGT region!*

Ah hope tae fk it's my part of Scotland Anything that brings rain can get tae, fur me! Big Innes

Warnings out for most of the country now.. Wonder why they aren't using the new lightning warnings that they added earlier in the year... Scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop during Friday, particularly the afternoon and then easing only slowly through the evening. Some places will miss the worst of the heavy showers and thunderstorms, but where they do occur they are likely to bring torrential rain with the potential for 20-30 mm of rain to fall in an hour and perhaps as much as 50-60 mm in 3 hours in a few locations. Lightning and large hail are also possible.

Okay so it's easy to see what is going on now, that clear gap moving into Wales will soon go it's just the low cloud burning off with the crud moving north now from the left overs. The next clear spell is behind this decaying stuff from France. You can see on SAT that showers over northern France forming already. Sun will aid in stronger convection today but where any storms form and start feeding off the energy up there that can form and spark sister storms around it or close by without the aid of sun. Note that the trigger will probably be where we get some gaps in the cloud. But with how strong the sun is now and the conditions we have, it won't take a long break in cloud to set them off. Times before we have had half an hour of sun add boom its go time.. Sometimes it don't. Patience today people, please ignore bbc weather, ignore models. Its radar and sat time...

In fact, going a bit further : ECM extended is now consistently signalling the end of the ridge by mid month