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Showing content with the highest reputation on 30/05/18 in all areas

  1. ...and so it has been proving to be the case Extended NWP attempted suggestions of retrogression of the pattern have been adjusting continually backwards over the last 10 days as updated atmospheric angular momentum tendency plots have kept showing a steady upward trending. As a result, the increasingly warm European pattern has been steadily extending in longevity Stripping away the longer term -ve AAM biases, then adjusted model plots show a continuation of this buoyant trend through , at the least, the opening 10 days of June The continued active periodicity (recurrence cycle) of tropical convection of several months has confirmed suspicions that deterministic MJO models would persist in undercooking eastward progression and amplitude of progression of tropical thunderstorm activity, and their associated westerly wind bursts that drive the rossby wave trains that develop downstream amplification and carve out anticyclones - and hence overestimate downside of AAM tendency. Anything beyond 4/5 days on these plots is subject to work in progress - amplitude has been continually revised upwards through this present cycle Hence the work in progress adjustments that have percolated into NWP to keep the downstream ridging stronger for longer, and put back the retrogression of the pattern and suppression southwards of the Jetstream. Taking into account these atmospheric circulation trends, then the evolution of the cycle in June, is closely related to the seasonal wavelength changes into summer, and will continue to be tied into an active tropics to keeping a warm pattern sustained. Of course, the cycle wanes as well as waxes, so at some stage there will be a backward adjustment (probably tied into the latter stages of the current tropical cycle once it has arrived in the Pacific) but what will be important if/when any less warm and settled interlude arrives will be the measure of how much higher the next lull phase in the tropics and extra tropics is compared to earlier in May. So, for once, we are coming into early summer with the atmospheric cycle pre-disposed towards downstream summer ridges - rather than seeing momentum collapse as it has done in years like 2007 and 2011. There is little point, in my opinion, of over dwelling on the winners and losers of a start of season pattern that is bound to have lag restrictions hung over from an extended cold season up to mid April at least. This is an island, and nothing is going to change that. Relatively cold seas are bound to make differences and cause issues such as low cloud and mist particularly on windward coasts, and especially added on to the detritus from thunderstorm activity from a nearby continent that is, self evidently, land-locked and therefore subject to much more rapid diurnal heating sooner that the UK This is as good a start as any could realistically hope for and every chance that future warm spells might build on the intensity of the current ones. Upper cold pooling to our west and south west and heat ridging in all vectors to our east is the broad-scale pattern that our best summers are built on and can be very sustained.
    21 points
  2. just saw the latest met office forecast so I just told the missus to not be alarmed but there could be the odd flash and a few bangs later on tonight....she just laughed and said...."at your age and in your shape?.....I don't think so!"........*sigh*
    15 points
  3. What is going on in here?!? This thread is normally a friendly place where people who all share an interest of storms congregate. It is not a place for arguments! I have just got back in from work to catch up on the afternoons updates and feel like I have been transported into a creche. Come on, lets keep it friendly or posts will be disappear.
    11 points
  4. GEFS 12z mean looking promising to T204, next Friday, signal gets less clear thereafter. ECM rolling out, and at T168, this really does look a good evolution with the high over Scandi, and the ridge from the Azores. Edit: double down on that with the T192:
    10 points
  5. parts of the south west look good for tomorrow...hard to pin a specific location, but east of Devon, near say Newton Poppleford looks good.......ever been there or have relatives there? edit....Nice forecast @MattTarrant.....ties in with current modelling
    10 points
  6. Deary me! I don't think you really understand what the warnings are for, do you? The warning area last night was really cover those who had already received 50+mm of rain that day, and to cover areas that had already seen large totals during the previous few days. The warnings were not 'thunderstorm' warnings, they were for rain. Here's the last 24 hour rainfall totals around your area; Your area wasn't forecast to see deluges, and as you can see, you didn't particularly get a deluge. The Met Office warnings were correct. You need to take a step back and think about what you are posting, it's not doing you any favours. Re CAPE; it is not the be all and end all of thunderstorm development. You could have 3000 j/kg of CAPE and negative 10 lift, and you are still not guaranteed a thunderstorm. You should take a look at this:
    9 points
  7. Not really no. Edit: You really should start trying to find forecasts for your area - there are loads of them about. If it’s storms you’re after then head over to Convective Weather’s site: http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/ Estofex is great too (but covers Europe and won’t give you specific details about Nottinghamshire) Netweather also issues storm forecasts, in fact there are quite a number of outlets run by professionals who do this sort of thing every day! You might not agree with what they are saying (I know I don’t sometimes ) but it’s probably the best place to start than asking ppl in this thread to decipher the daily forecasts for you - not least because then you can come to your own conclusions about potential in your local area which really helps you get a grasp of the complex systems involved in storm generation and the conditions needed to support them. hope IT helps
    9 points
  8. Morning all, Don't think I heard any thunder, in the overnight period. Certainly heard the rain though, "thundery" by nature again and was almost of "biblical" proportions, between 1.30 and 2.30 am. On a personal level, I'm very pleased with how I 've coped with the current thundery weather. As some of you may know, I've suffered from pretty severe, Brontophobia, from the age of ten, until now, I'm sixty-three this year. As some of you also know, I suffered a Brain Haemorrhage, back in September 2015. I literally died twice and I think that close shave with death, helped me put my life, more into perspective. If I can recover from that, surely I can cope, with a bit of thunder. Gone are the days when I used to take radical avoidance action, shutting myself in window less rooms, putting cotton wool in my ears and a pillow, over my head!! Although the thunder has been relatively muffled at times, due to the elevated nature of the lightning/storms, I've still managed to stay fairly relaxed, throughout. I did still have to come downstairs on Saturday night though, when that storm started. I have been able to look at my computer, throughout this thundery period, before I would've turned it off and unplugged everything, at the first distant rumble. Not sure I could go out in it yet though but this morning I have to later, as I have more Physio, at Orpington hospital, although my wife and I will be getting a cab there. Hope you all enjoy your day, thundery or otherwise. Regards, Tom.
    9 points
  9. *Self Forecast (Produced By Myself) Day 2 Convective Outlook VALID 6:00 UTC Thurs 31 May 2018 - 11:59 UTC Thurs 31 May 2018 There is reasonable signs (model consensus) for an area of elevated convection to be drifting across S/SE at the beginning of the forecast period, continuing to migrate NW - wards through the day. Questionable as to the extent of organisation, with forecast profiles presenting limited wind shear across the risk zone. Subtle weakening is likely as the convection transfers NW - wards, due to weakening mid level instability. Despite minimal wind shear, storms will have frequent lightning and *occasional hail*(Largely SE). Storms have the potential to produce local disruption with flash flooding, with precipitable water values >30 mm. Elevated convection could transfer into surface based (root in boundary level) as the trough extends NW - wards, though this could be a messy transition and is currently regarded to be unlikely due to excessive cloud cover (hence subtle weakening on NW - wards trajectory favored). Behind the trough, insolation will yield around 1000 J/kg of CAPE (1,500 J/kg GFS). This will potentially lead to the development of isolated thunderstorms, again producing; frequent lightning, occasional hail and substantial local rainfall. Any one region could see a storm, though development is dependent on the progress of the earlier convective activity.
    8 points
  10. Yup! Based on how excited some people were getting in the early hours this morning with a handful of elevated sferics i’m a little worried we may need an ambulance on standby tomo
    8 points
  11. So comparing GFS 18z (left) with GFS 00z (right), we see a slightly faster trough off the East U.S. Coast and this leads to interaction with the mid-N. Atlantic trough that initiates disruption of that feature with no more progress being made toward the UK. Then, the merged troughs initiate a revival of the jet pattern that has dominated during recent weeks; storms tracking from SW of Greenland to Svalbard and often on across the Arctic Ocean from there. ECM's not sped that near-US trough up as much, but it still gets close enough to affect the mid-N. Atlantic one. Having said that, the extent to which trough disruption has been added suggests that at least in part, this is simply the models correcting for something overlooked beforehand. The usual caveats apply of course; the near-US trough could be adjusted slower again, and/or the mid-N. Atlantic trough disruption reduced. Even so, it's amazing to be contemplating a very warm continental flow for much or all of next week, having only very recently moved out of a lengthy spell of such conditions (albeit not for all of us, I know).
    8 points
  12. Go in the moaning or regional thread then! Imby posts really annoy me because this thread is about what the models are showing generally across the uk!
    7 points
  13. That ol' chestnut! I have seen similar comments hundreds of times on here, and it's usually because the said person is not in the warning zones. The Met Office have done a great job thus far - I haven't seen any other forecasts that have contradicted theirs. Feel free to post some evidence and charts, of course.
    7 points
  14. Morning all. If we look at the much broader NH 500mb chart for 240t you just get a picture of how unusual the pressure pattern is over Europe. Just one huge slack or flabby pressure gradient over the land mass and the continued amazing longevity of the presence of high pressure extending to the NW of the British Isles. So based on this chart , not much change. The NW of Britain doing well in the sunshine and above average temps and Southern Britain still at risk to thundery outbreaks triggered by the increasingly convective heat forces over the continent. Maybe as the June progresses plume conditions could bring some hot conditions from Iberia towards Southern Britain. Certainly a very interesting few months of weather synoptics you guys are experiencing. Much better than constant zonal Atlantic flow ( my view anyway ). C
    7 points
  15. Snow is measured on the Murr scale, but lightning strikes are measured by the Grimometer. It's accuracy is in a league of its own as it picks up strikes no other model can detect. Quite remarkable
    6 points
  16. And back to what the models are showing please, As frosty says let's please use the moaning or regionals, You can even ramp moans in there.. Thanks
    6 points
  17. Caught the anvil of that small cell over NE France whilst on a walk
    6 points
  18. Arg! please stop arguing with ppl I use this forum for a bit of on topic banter and for genuine observations and thoughts on the convective potential of weather systems in the U.K... If you partake and you make wild or unfounded statements expect people to bring you up on it - it’s called debate and it’s how these forums work!
    6 points
  19. Day 2 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 31 May 2018 - 05:59 UTC Fri 01 Jun 2018 ISSUED 21:17 UTC Wed 30 May 2018 ISSUED BY: Chris A widespread thunderstorm outbreak is expected across southern Britain on Thursday. Mid-level instability will spread into southern England during the morning sparking the potential for thunderstorms by mid-morning across parts of Kent, Sussex and areas south of London. As the day progresses thunderstorms will develop more widely across southern England and eventually into Wales, the Midlands and parts of East Anglia. These storms will experience several different forcing factors. The aforementioned mid-level instability will spread further northwards into the Midlands, but should mix with surface based instability into the afternoon in response to daytime heating. CAPE values >1000 J/kg are forecast quite widely through the MDT and much of the SLGT area with PWATs in the low 30s mm. Both low-level and deep-layer shear will be weak, meaning storm modes will be messy, and largely pulse variety. Development of thunderstorms will likely occur in response to weak surface convergence, that is noted in the surface wind fields in the model, particularly from London across Bucks, Oxfordshire and Glocs. Weak steering flow will mean that thunderstorms likely sit over the same locations for an extended time, leading to the risk localised flooding. Some areas could receive in excess of 50mm of rain in less than 1 hour. The larger thunderstorm updrafts may also be capable of supporting hail to 2.5cm. Some uncertainty over MDT risk area as extensive low-level cloud during the morning could limit temperatures into the afternoon, and lead to lower CAPE values than the models are suggesting. A few isolated thunderstorms are possible in northwestern Scotland as well, with CAPE values over 700 J/kg forecast, however dry-midlevel conditions and capping at around 750mb will limit potential there. *Similar in nature to my forecast
    5 points
  20. Anyone would think it's a poor spell of weather reading your post but for most of the uk with the exception of the occasional disappointing day, today for example..it's been a generally fantastic late spring with well above average temperatures, some amazing thunderstorms and lots of very warm sunshine and looking at the models, there's plenty more to come!
    5 points
  21. William Grimsley! I love storms I wish everyone storms this week!
    5 points
  22. Many thanks as always Tamara for your extensive insight . Funnily enough I was just now having a gander at the MJO phase 4 composite for June having noted the decent amplification now looking to be retained through that as we change months; This is much improved from that of May (Scandinavian troughs and ridges W/NW of the UK) and lends good support to those model runs which prevent the Atlantic trough from powering its way over the Scandinavian ridge any time soon. So the 06z GFS seems too progressive in that respect. So what of phase 5 if we see that to follow? It looks very interesting, but has low reliability, so not worth putting too much weight on that one. The broad notion of propagation into Pacific = very helpful for achieving fine summer weather across the UK in general (allowing for local variations) is the one to keep in mind until further notice .
    5 points
  23. Must stop using this, must be strong for you to smell 13 miles away
    5 points
  24. Mmm looking more settled than I was thinking yesterday...really superb 00z output showing this summery spell extending well into June and potential for hot weather..flaming June anyone?
    5 points
  25. ties in pretty much with the forecasts Pete, i.e isolated storms that weakened during the period.....of course, one or two got lucky but the vast majority didn't....no organised storms whatsoever despite what you might have been led to believe reading some posts,,,,,what we're left with is just a band of patchy rain, heavy in places but nothing of any real note
    5 points
  26. I don’t often post on here but Ice Man 85, I have to seriously challenge your views on people’s love for ‘extreme weather’. I haven’t read of anyone excited that floods, extreme high or low temperatures could result in death or even life consequences. No one wants anything like that! As for anything ‘extreme’ with our weather more recently, the temperatures cumulatively are higher and there have been a few storms with big rainfall totals, but hardly the extremes other warmer countries can have in such conditions. We are actually lucky to live in a country that our extremes are less so really compared to many others! Where are the hurricanes and extreme droughts that other countries suffer? Just look at the lightning storms that have killed dozens in India very recently! If anything, people such as the many homeless can get killed from a few cold nights below zero which is hardly extreme as one example! A first warm spell of the year as another can and does often result in tragic consequences when people take a plunge in cold waters! I’d also challenge your views in that it’s the same fanatics of more extreme weather that are the first in warning and raising awareness of any danger to those less informed and more vulnerable. As noted, I very rarely post but your views although with a good underlying sentiment, in my personal view (and others it seems), are without doubt misplaced at best.
    5 points
  27. A look at last evening’s short term anomalies to see where we are going with this, if anywhere. The major players remain the weakening Canadian vortex and the strengthening one over northern Russia with the elongated blocking high pressure ridging east >west between Scotland and Iceland But in a not unimportant supporting role is the upper low in the western Atlantic which divides the flow exiting north east N, America, albeit some of it returns in mid Atlantic to support the strong westerly jet over Iceland, but more to the point it also creates a channel south of the block to the low pressure south of the UK giving it the odd boost and perhaps an indication of future events? So for the interim it looks like a continuation of a slack pressure gradient over the UK with temps above average but sunshine in many regions interrupted by showery/stormy outbreaks, the detail of which will be impossible to pin down much in advance. Today A front/trough, currently lying Dorset > Wash, accompanied by rain, showers/ storms and localized intense rain fall will track north west during the day. Clearer and drier weather behind in the south east where the odd Cb could pop up but remaining pretty cloudy along the east coast and some central areas. Again the best of the weather in the north west. Thursday sees the large slack area of low pressure esconced over the UK heralding a warm humid day in England and Wales with cloud still the bugbear along the north east/east coast and perhaps central areas of England. Some home grown storms could be triggered where the sun gets going but just to add to the mix more showers/storms will track north west across central southern England and Wales during the day The general pattern on Friday sees both the Bermuda and Azores high pressures ridging around the cut off lows in the Atlantic as the next phase of the evolution gets underway. On the surface this translates to another very warm humid day for the UK and with the heavy showers/storms extending further north one could pop up virtually anywhere. Meanwhile high pressure is building south of Iceland. Saturday a drier day in England and Wales, the showers confined to Scotland, but still above average temps but 'cooler' air creeping in in the west as as the low to the west takes closer order and the high pressure continuing to ridge east north of Scotland Another very warm day on Sunday but although the high pressure is becoming established to the north the low is quite adjacent to the south west so apart from home grown storms being triggered some could still move north from France and affect the south
    5 points
  28. How can you make a forecast for the rest of the summer when its May 29th? lol The 18z looks really good still and the showers become less widespread after Friday/Saturday whilst still remaining warm. Even the best summers can have a poor week of weather within them, this is the UK after all....
    5 points
  29. Slightly better view of it. Never seen that before!
    4 points
  30. I’ve been keeping an eye on how crazy the warmth in Norway is.... since the 22nd, maximums in Oslo have been: 24/25/27/28/28/28/24/27/30 the forecast maxima for the next 9 days: 29/30/31/31/28/26/24/28/28 Surely this must be up there with all time heatwaves, including summer months! To get a run like that from mid May to early June is mind boggling really.
    4 points
  31. Maybe this year we'll get a Flaming June ?️
    4 points
  32. The devil will be in the surface detail but the Ecm 12z is showing a very summery..start to summer..great charts!?️
    4 points
  33. Just considering the long range models as we head into summer, first thing to note is that the Met Office contingency planners forecast, of which the May update is effectively the summer forecast, closely follows the raw GloSea5 output from earlier in the month, giving a 40% probability of the warmest quintile over the 3 month period, higher probability of drier than average too. Full forecast here for temperature and precipitation, heavily caveated of course given it's probably the best outlook since the infamous 2009 seasonal forecast. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-temp-jja-v1.pdf https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-precip-jja-v1.pdf One thing they mention is cooler than average North Atlantic sea temperatures to the west of the UK, looks farther west than that cold pool a couple of years ago (which if memory serves me some blamed for cooler summers), current sea temperature anomoly: It's also noticeable how the sea around the UK has warmed given how cold it was in March. They do say no clear signal for June though. Here's yesterday's four CFS Z500 anomalies for June, still none too shabby, 18z first:
    4 points
  34. Absolutely fabulous 12z output for warm weather fans with the azores high dominating preceedings. Yes there will be exceptions to the rule with some places faring bettef than others but just look at ukmo tonight.. superb.
    4 points
  35. Looking at 12Z UKMO high pressure will build over the UK again as we go into next week
    4 points
  36. A good start to summer with no rain during the last fortnight. The GFS has been consistent on storms with a lot of rain falling on Friday for the west and south of the country, met office forecasts also mentioning localised flooding. A good storm or 2 and then back to warm and sunny would be ideal!
    4 points
  37. The Ecm 00z operational really cranked up the continental heat and the mean is looking really good as well ?️
    4 points
  38. The ECM 850hpa temperature positive deviation at 240t sort of confirms the longevity of above average temps, especially in the NW of the British Isles. Nearly off the scales in some places ! C
    4 points
  39. Phew,! Much better 00z runs this morning from GFS/ECM with high pressure more dominant - potentially very warm as the low stalls in the Atlantic ala ECM.
    4 points
  40. Please stop using terms like ‘intense cluster of thunderstorms’. It’s misleading. Thanks.
    4 points
  41. Sun appeared here for all of 5 minutes just now.. Its now gone cloudy, grim & chilly again Ironic that folk are hoping for yet more rain and thunder, it’s been like a November day here. Grey & misty. Snapshot of the 18:00 radar... no ppn what so ever over our part... do a sun dance instead!!!
    3 points
  42. Why does the sun only ever appear at 6pm? How useless is that?
    3 points
  43. Once today's rain has cleared away to the north west overnight tomorrow will dawn quite dry but rather cloudy and muggy with the perennial low cloud and mist along the east coast. But it will warm up quite nicely enough to trigger some storms in the south central areas which could drift north west. But during the day a batch of more intentsive storm activity will track north west from the continent and again this could produce some severe storms in places with intense rainfall and localized flooding.
    3 points
  44. Agreed Marpantz: the fact that I didn't get any thunder, last night, hardly makes the Met's warnings rubbish...
    3 points
  45. Still dry and warm here but lot more cloud today and not the clag from the east either tomorrow might not be too bad then got Friday to come that gonna be interesting I suspect
    3 points
  46. 3 points
  47. Assuming the Atlantic does, of course, breakthrough it looks doubtful this morning on ECM with high pressure still the dominant feature
    3 points
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