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Looks like potential is growing for some very warm/hot weather developing into the next bank holiday weekend. Long way off at the mo, but it’s appeared a few times now and needs watching. Great 12z again, this May has been fantastic on the whole!

Lovely day here today, and it's quiet in here and I can see why, looking at individual runs won't tell us much we don't know about the next week, and longer term where the high heads is still open to question. Quite happy if it evolves like the ICON 12z though:

Turning out to be one of the finest Mays in recent memories! Absolutely stunning. I will note however that we are never too far away from some impressive instability over the near continent, which could bring some real ground shakers in terms of storms to the south at times more towards the end of the week as it stands! Very much reminiscent of late May 1999.

Back home after a great couple of days walking around northern Loch Lomond. As Catch has posted very settled looking outlook. Reporting in for Haar watch duty though!

Longer term there is a clearly a difference of opinion in regards to where we are heading. GEFs The GEFs continue to want to retrogress the high westwards and longer term tries to introduce more changeable conditions from the north west. ECM ens The ECM suite wants to maintain that ridge to our and in general wants to try and redevelop the low to our south west. In terms of conditions for week two this would be the difference between the GFS (Turning cooler and fresher) and the ECM (The possibility of a more southerly component to the wind developing which could turn conditions very warm or even hot as we enter June). Hard to call at the moment as to which one is more likely. GEM typically disagrees with both and holds the high close to the UK, well it is more centred over Ireland but would continue to keep conditions rather settled and warm rather than anything extreme. As for my expectations, the typical prognosis would be that eventually the high will slip away to our east but before then the chance of perhaps seeing our first 30C of the year during the first week or so of June is certainly possible so for me the ECM probably looks like the more viable solution.

Summary Fine, warm, and dry but there are exceptions Currently a band of light rain is across N. Ireland and central Scotland which will not progress much further south east against the block during the day. On the contrary it will move back the way a tad this evening and over night resulting in a substantial accumulation over the western Isles. Elsewhere it's been a clear night apart from the east and south east coasts where low cloud pushed a little inland. also some patchy mist/fog along the south coast. This will generally clear during the day So another very warm day beckons for but cooler where the sea breeze in. The gfs temps are probably under cooked but it does give an idea of the range. So tomorrow continuing wet over the north west although it may slowly clear later and once the low cloud has cleared the east anther very warm day with the chance of thundery showers developing in central/southern areas, and the usual caveat vis sea breezes and of course across N. Ireland and the north west of Scotland where the front and rain severely depresses the temps. But a key move on Monday vis the overall evolution is the high pressure once again amplifying north east creating another cut off low that slips south east towards the low pressure in the western Mediterranean On Tuesday the result of all of this sees a new surface high cell north of Scotland with a broad area of low pressure to the south thus an easterly regime over the UK which will bring cooler temps the east coast and perhaps some mist/low cloud whilst elsewhere will have another warm and sunny day with a continuing risk of thunderstorms in southern areas. A very similar story over the next two days as the high cell relocates over Scandinavia and the area of low pressure persists to the south with the continuing risk of thundery outbreaks in the south and west

The half term week could be a cracker if current charts are to be believed. ECM mean 850s at D11: which shows 850s over 8C through England and Wales, on a continental ticket without thunder interference that could result in 23-26C - however a mean far removed from the norm normally means clustering even farther from the norm, so I'd guess a fair amount of runs in there anywhere between 25-30C, and I'd include Scotland in that bracket too. The wise money for me is currently on a hot bank holiday + days immediately after. As June arrives, the signal seems to lose its way but no evidence yet the current pattern has a definite end date.

Actually those temperatures are nothing to do with low cloud, the GFS brings an area of rain off the continent which affects eastern parts of the UK which would suppress temperatures. In general I suspect that these organised areas of rain will probably disappear in the closer range with just a few thundery showers developing across inland parts of central/southern England. Looking at some models and the general national forecasts, low cloud actually doesn't look to be too much of an issue, maybe some mist on direct coasts but the north sea looks pretty clear once the next couple of days pass. We just need to watch out for any rain being imported from the continent. To be honest the model output suggests that shower activity might get squeezed out by the weekend as 500mb and surface heights rise so perhaps a sunny and warm/very warm bank holiday looks a real possibility (In fact with 850s approaching 15C across the south then hot is certainly possible). Could we really get two cracking bank holidays on the bounce? Okay Monday sees some instability as that cold pool moves westwards but given the changes in the output, would this actually pan out or will we end up with a cleaner ridge.

UKMO is really feeling it tonight GFS pumping the continental heat ever closer for the bank holiday weekend

I am loving the look of the models, I am off to the Lake District on Friday for a few days and the outlook looks perfect for hill walking

Looking at the models and it really does look like the Atlantic is going for a nice big nap at the moment.

ECM is a barnstormer again this morning! ukmo iffy once more as the flow isn’t from the right direction. It seems t have a disturbance over Germany at 144 that isn’t there on ecm, and this scuppers the very warmest air moving in. Let’s hope ecm is the form horse here. GEM also very similar.

Was a great day gin blue skies what a day for Royal Wedding, how the other half live. I don’t find this weather boring it is almost summer things tend to be fairly quiet and settled for long periods it definitely seems the next 7-10d is secure likely longer I’d say. A very good closing spring month! More notable it’s been dry running at a third of monthly ave likely to not be any further rainfall except from storms next week it does seem likely they’ll be some thundery action wonder where....

Wish I had my Weatherflow station now.. would've been nice to start graphing any close-proximity lightning. Patience le pantz!

For the first half of the coming week any thunderstorms will be isolated as generally high pressure is in control of the weather. CAPE is looking quite decent, shear is not so and there are no weather fronts to provide additional triggers for thunderstorm development. So having read numerous forecasts and studied the charts I have come up with the following idea. The forecast of warm sunshine for virtually everyone with just a few isolated heavy showers and thunderstorms breaking out would seem about right. Convergence zones will play a part tomorrow and I would not be surprised to see a number of showers and storms breaking out along narrow bands where convergence zones form. With very little wind shear any storms that form would likely pulse out quite quickly but this could then trigger further storms to develop along the outflow of the dying storm. Showers and storms will be moving slowly and in a direction slightly south of west. Initial developments will probably be somewhere to the west of London through the middle of the day and then expand westwards across Central Southern England. Further storms could also develop down the spine of the country and move into the West Midlands and NW England, although these are less likely than those further south. I agree with Ben's idea above and believe that somewhere around Wiltshire/Somerset may be best placed tomorrow for a late afternoon/evening storm. Any storms that do form could have the potential to produce torrential downpours and gusty winds along with CG lightning. With slow storm motion there is the risk of localised flooding, especially considering the ground is currently quite dry and hard after what has been (and still is) a very dry spell of weather. I am looking forward to the expert analysis on this one. If I was closer to the action I may have considered chasing, but currently the risk is not high enough for me to commit to such a long drive.

Wow! This has upgraded significantly!

No change from the models today's output - a continuation of the very settled theme, with high pressure ruling the roost for the foreseeable, bringing warm conditions for all. Signs we may pull in a more continental feed in time for the Bank Holiday which would raise upper temps, but equally signs heights might not position so favourably and instead it will be a more direct easterly feed. Either way, remaining dry for many, chance of isolated heavy downpours in places, but you will be unlucky to see them. Those thinking current synoptics will hold through the summer, as ever, caution is urged. Now is the most likely time of year we see an atlantic shutdown, and the northern hemisphere doesn't settle into its summer base state until later in June, it would be exceptional to see such synoptics hold now right through the summer. Not saying it can't happen, but the chances are slim - the current synoptics are anamolous ones - i.e. not the norm, but as I said more probable now than in the depths of summer.

Is it me or is GFS 12z just one belter of a run, Entering into June and HP well established across Scandi again with a warm to hot E'ly flow. FI (Fantasy Imagination) I know but this looks like a nice step into 1976 territory.

That time again for thunderstorm activity is upon us, let's take a look at how things are shaping up for tomorrow. General consensus is for CAPE values to reach between 400-500J/kg in some of the more favourable locations tomorrow, severe parameters look relatively limited for tomorrow so no severe potential unfortunately. Saying that there is a possibility of seeing a FC or two tomorrow given decent LLS and wind convergence zones. Convergence zones along with strong heating look to be the prime factor for initiating storms and these are evident across much of East Wales/Central Areas along with parts of Dorset into Devon. Storms moving SW throughout the day and evening. Beginning with the GFS: As always CAPE values are being well overcooked here by more than double. Storms I don't expect to be as widespread (and a little east compared to other models), though again Central Areas/CS-SW England are the most favourable locations. Next the ECMWF: CAPE values not exceeding 400J/kg, similar to various Skew-T charts I've analysed. ECMWF has a main focus on Devon, although fewer showers across Central areas. A last look at the NMM Model and EURO4: The NMM model showing the formation of several convergence zones across Central areas and the SW, although again the majority of the higher res models favoring much of the SW over Central areas. Therefore the general coverage of storms looks to be better over the SW regarding my forecast and if I had to choose a particular location tomorrow I'd have to say in and around the Yeovil area.

Wonderful summer charts again from the latest UKMO especially the NW. Manchester just hit top spot in the country at 1700h with 23c ! c

The period post week two continues to drift with a retrogressive lw pattern. The sceuro ridge being replaced by a nw Russian upper trough and the upper ridge becomes more e Atlantic/nw Europe/Iceland based. that’s a big call given how long the sceuro ridge has reigned supreme these past few months - best left to see if it continues to be the trend - would certainly help the boys in russia next month!

Well putting aside the royal wedding as that’s all that’s shoved in ones face at the moment! What a glorious day yesterday was and long may it continue... have a lovely weekend everyone

Glorious in Manchester today and a very light wind which made it feel warmer than 21C in the afternoon. It has been stunning for most of the last 2 weeks and looks like continuing.

(a) CET forecasts -- the averages and extremes includes all values 1981 to 2017 colour coded for warmest, middle and coolest thirds. 23.0 ... 3rd, 1947, warmest daily mean 22.4 ... average for last five days in June 1976 21.2 ... average for last nine days in June 1976 18.2 ... 1846 (warmest June) 18.0 ... 1676 (2nd warmest) 17.3 ... 1826 (3rd warmest) 17.1 ... 1822 (4th warmest) 17.0 ... 1976 (5th warmest) 16.1 ... 2003 16.0 ... 2017 15.9 ... 2006 15.7 ... 1992 15.5 ... 1982, 2005 15.3 ... 2004 15.2 ... 2010, 2016 15.1 ... 2000, 2007, 2014 15.0 ... 1993 14.8 ... 1986, 2009 and average for 2001-2017 14.7 ... 14.6 ... 1989 and average for 1988-2017 and 1991-2017 (emerging 1991-2020 average) 14.5 ... 1984, 1994 average for 1981-2010, 1986-2015, also for 1701-1800 14.4 ... 1983, 1988, 1996, 2002 14.3 ... 1995, 2001 and average for all years 1659-2017, also 1801-1900 14.2 ... 1998 and average for 1961-1990, also 1901-2000 14.1 ... 1997 and average for 1971-2000, also 1659-1700 14.0 ... 2015 13.9 ... 1999, 2008 13.8 ... 2011 13.6 ... 1990, 2013 13.5 ... 2012 13.2 ... 1981 12.8 ... 1987 12.7 ... 1985 12.1 ... 1991 (lone 8th coldest after 1689, 1698 at 12.0 tied 6th coldest) 11.9 ... 1749 (5th coldest) 11.8 ... 1972, 1916, 1909 (tied 2nd coldest) 11.5 ... 1675 (coldest June) 7.3 ... 9th (1816) and 19th (1795) coldest daily means __________________________________________________________________ At 16.1, 2003 was tied 18th warmest which is the least extreme such ranking for any month in the period 1981 to 2017. The next in line is May (tied 6th warmest). June is also the only month that has a more extreme cold rank since 1981 (June 1991 -- 8th coldest) than its warmest rank. From 2010 to 2015 December shared that distinction. Besides December 2010 (2nd coldest) and June 1991 (8th coldest) the only other months since 1981 with coldest 15 placements in the entire period of record since 1659 are Feb 1986 (5th coldest), March 2013 (tied 12th coldest), May 1996 (tied 13th coldest), Sept 1986 (tied 14th coldest), and Dec 1981 (tied 8th coldest). ___________________________________________________________________ Enter the CET forecast contest by 0001h Friday 1st of June without penalty, or on any of the first three days of June with increasing late penalties. _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ___________ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ (b) Optional EWP contest The contest uses the England and Wales precip series (1910 to present) from the NCIC of UKMO as its source, rather than the slightly wetter (usually) Hadley EWP. Differences so far this contest year have been small but scoring is available for both now in the competition thread. In this table of values, the NCIC averages and extremes are shown, and Hadley values (for the extremes only) for comparison. 157.8 mm __ 2012 wettest (NCIC) 1910-2017 ... (160.1 Hadley, none wetter 1766 to 1909) _66.2 mm __ mean 1988-2017 (NCIC) _64.1 mm __ mean 1981-2010 (NCIC) _22.4 mm __ 1995 driest (NCIC) 1981-2017 ... (20.2 mm Hadley) __4.0 mm __ 1925 driest (NCIC) 1910-2017 ... (4.3 mm Hadley, none drier 1766 to 1909) (in the longer Hadley series, second wettest was 157.1 mm in 1860; second driest was 10.3 mm in 1921) - - - - - _______________________________ - - - - - Enter the EWP contest (add your forecast to your CET temp forecast), same deadlines but shifted three hours later in all cases to give you a bit of time to ponder the guidance. (0300h 1st of June is penalty-free deadline, then it's 0.2 point deductions per day late to 0300h 4th). Maximum score is 10.0 for closest forecast, all others are scored on a sliding scale by rank down to 0.0 points for least accurate. Good luck in both contests !! _______________________________ > > > >

The other thing to note is that a lot of Europe has been above average temps wise in recent weeks....good omen for summer? Certainly a very different set of building blocks this year since the SSW throw the atmosphere into chaos.

Accuweather's forecast for this summer looking very promising for our Region. Hopefully some good thunderstorms along the way will mean we avoid a drought. Warm, dry summer expected from United Kingdom to Belgium, Netherlands Prolonged periods of warm and dry weather will be the theme of the summer across the British Isles, northwestern France, Belgium and Netherlands. The overall warm pattern will likely result in one of the warmest summers of the past decade. “Going back to 2010, this summer will rank as one of the top three warmest across United Kingdom as a whole," Roys said. The prolonged warm and dry weather will increase the risk for drought conditions which could impact agriculture. https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/2018-europe-summer-forecast-intense-heat-to-seize-france-to-germany-fierce-storms-to-hit-poland-to-italy-romania/70004928

Day 2 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 21 May 2018 - 05:59 UTC Tue 22 May 2018 ISSUED 19:26 UTC Sun 20 May 2018 ISSUED BY: Dan ... MONDAY MORNING ... A shortwave will be sliding across SE England on Monday morning, rotating around the northern periphery of the main upper low over France. This will be accompanied by slight warming of the low-levels, while also cooling aloft. Some elevated convection seems likely during the morning hours over SE England, though the depth convection may be somewhat limited - hence uncertain if there will be much lightning activity. ... MONDAY AFTERNOON / EVENING ... Nonetheless, this shortwave becomes the focus for deeper convection during the afternoon and evening hours as it continues to drift westwards. Model guidance varies in coverage and location of showers / thunderstorms, but 500-1,000 J/kg CAPE and low-level wind convergence/orographic forcing will likely aid the development of at least some isolated to widely-scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. A marked dewpoint boundary over the northern / western Home Counties might also aid initiation. A SLGT has been issued where better multi-model consensus exists, though isolated thunderstorms may be possible farther north over NW England, for example. Deep layer shear is rather weak, and so convection will be poorly-organised and pulse-type (an individual thunderstorm will only have a life cycle of less than 1 hour for example). Main threat will be localised surface water flooding (due to slow motion of showers) and gusty winds (particularly when showers/storms collapse at the end of their life cycle). Hail up to 1.0cm in diameter will be possible with the strongest cells. Main uncertainty involves just how many showers may actually develop, and then whether they become deep enough to produce much in the way of lightning given the weakly-sheared environment. Some uncertainty also exists over the exact W-E position of the SLGT area in E Wales / W Midlands, which may need to be adjusted. Any showers / thunderstorms that do develop will begin to fade towards sunset as nocturnal cooling of the boundary layer commences. ... MONDAY NIGHT ... Upper low over NE France will drift close to SE England on Monday night. On its northern flank, higher 850mb WBPT airmass will attempt to advect across the North Sea from the nearby Continent, though some uncertainty as to how far west this will reach, depending on the shape/location of the upper low. Elements of medium-level instability are likely to spread west from NE France / BeNeLux towards East Anglia and SE England, and so it is possible some elevated showers or thunderstorms may drift in this general direction during Monday night, but probably with a weakening trend as instability reduces as one comes further west. For now, have refrained from issuing a SLGT, but one may be required if conditions improve. http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-05-21

Great news. Will be up there in your part of the world tomorrow. See Manchester Airport was the top hot spot today with 23c. C

Some good CAPE potential tomorrow for storms tomorrow evening EURO4 precip Bring on the second storm of the year ?️

Spains version of Northern Blocking

Add into the mix the 12z GEFS mean at T192, roll on summer of '18 it really could be a cracker.

A comparison of the UKMO GFS and GEM at T144: 1040 mb on two of them in the vicinity of the UK in late May. And consistency wrt the larger scale pattern. I don't think this block is going to shift for the next month despite any output to the contrary. We'll see .

my imagination or does Friday look yucky? 6Z showed it too

To my mind, theres hints of a potential repeat of late May 1999 in some of the outputs, which kickstarted what was a fantastic year, arguably one of the best thundery summers the UK has seen. A trend which I hope is built upon this week. Some severe CAPE over the near continent is being shown at times, and steering winds look favourable for some potential imports from France and the Low Countries.

RAIN?? Ooooo we haven't got any here. You keepit pet.

ECM clusters T300 - the themes of recent days remain. In general, a split outlook between a North Sea based ridge and a NE Atlantic ridge (both summery for the UK but less warm on the latter option), with a minor cluster collapsing the ridge NWwards leaving us more unsettled. But it must be stressed - a very minor cluster :

Quite an interesting ecm for Bank Holiday Monday this morning with some very high temps in the unstable low pressure area to the south (30C in central France) with much thundery activity and the high temps even get as far north as the south of the UK but probable best to avoid Skegy. Of course purely academic at the moment

I am off to the Lake District on Friday for a few days. The weather looks perfect for hill walking, I should be able to get some great pictures

6 blank days, 79 for 2018, 56% Solar flux is at 70

14.1C, dominated by low pressure, got to pay for decent weather in May

He sees into the future like he owns it! May be it will be a little different this year... #lowsolaractivity

Make the most of it as the city isn't exactly known for prolonged warmth or dryness, more the opposite. Come June the Atlantic can crank up delivering a cool damp Summer especially for western areas. May is often the driest and sunniest month for Greater Manchester - similar for other north western areas of the UK. Been loads of May's that have been dry and warm around here only for Summer itself to be cooler and damper.

Lovely looking Ecm 12z ensemble mean tonight, summery from start to finish with power to add well beyond day 10...generally pleasantly warm settled weather with lots of strong late May sunshine..a risk of isolated thunderstorms across the south during the week ahead with continental inflow, overall it's a superb summer-like anticyclonic looking mean for late spring..nationwide with the jet pushed well to the north, up near greenland, iceland and northern scandinavia...hopefully there will be plenty more charts like these during the next four months!?️

Excellent conditions in the Lake District at present for fell walking, lots more to come - always say to people best time for fell walking in the Lakes is April-May and September, and the worst - August! May, June and July are the summer months in the Lake District, always have been. August marks the start of the six month wet season. February the start of the drier half of the year, indeed there are four seasons in the Lakes: Feb-May the drier most settled period thanks to a greater likelihood of northerly, easterly and anticyclonic conditions June-July the warm but often unsettled season thanks to alternations between moist westerly/south westerly airstreams and occasional anticyclonic or azores high ridge influences with associated southerlies or direct heights overhead August - January - the wet season thanks to the predominant dreaded SW airstream, except September which is a season in itself - often settled and probably the most pleasant of all the seasons, thanks to a becalming of the atlantic and more chance of anticyclonic conditions

Not seen the wedding or the footie, but it was perfect weather for sitting in a park watching Soul II Soul with an ice cream. I love goldilocks weather!! And I even planted out the pumpkins, sweetpeas etc before the gig! Really nice, useable weather!

caught the tail end of a discussion on tv here ..where climatologists stated that models have been over estimating warming impact of co2 by 40%..does anyone know which scientific studies they were referring to?

So we've got an ensemble mean chart at T192, that's 8 days away, from the GEFS with a 1030 contour on it over the UK. What's not to like? there's so many emojis now how do you choose? I went for comfortable shoes in the end.

The lack of energy in the Atlantic is quite something to behold on this mornings charts! Not sure I've ever seen it so blocked in summer. Now you know me, not one to ramp but it is pattern like this which is step 1 towards a 1976 style period. It can only happen with total Atlantic shut out. Step 2 would be to get the high oriented in a way to give a continental drift rather than Scandi/Baltic. Step 3 = lock-in. We aren't quite at step 2. But not impossible, and step 3 could follow!!