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Superb ECM - may the early start to summer keep on rolling!!

The lack of energy in the Atlantic is quite something to behold on this mornings charts! Not sure I've ever seen it so blocked in summer. Now you know me, not one to ramp but it is pattern like this which is step 1 towards a 1976 style period. It can only happen with total Atlantic shut out. Step 2 would be to get the high oriented in a way to give a continental drift rather than Scandi/Baltic. Step 3 = lock-in. We aren't quite at step 2. But not impossible, and step 3 could follow!!

More great output this morning! ECM on board now with the warmth lasting the whole week. The only question is now how much in the way of thunderstorms will there be? Comparing the Cape levels of the GFS and ECM (available from weather.us) GFS ECM Today Minimal None Sunday Minimal None Monday Moderate Light Tuesday Light Moderate Wednesday Light Moderate Thursday High Moderate Friday Very high Light GFS tends to overestimate Cape and has backtracked from the really high values we saw forecast for Tuesday. However Midweek ECM sees pockets of quite decent CAPE around midweek so there could be a helping of storms, mainly across eastern and southern areas of the UK.

My apologies to everyone, I seem to have inadvertently posted the T0 chart from the ECM in the post above. Here's the actual T240: In rude health, you might say. Moving on, here's the UKMO 0z at T144: Peachy! And GFS at T180: Just a thought, is 2018 going down as the year of the easterly?

Fabulous mid / late May according to the Ecm 12z..in summary, it's summery?️

The weekend will be warm and sunny with some exceptions. Today after a chilly start it will warm up quickly with plenty of sunshine. It may be a little filtered still in north west Scotland where the front is still adjacent and low cloud and mist will still be a feature along the south east coasts so temps down here. As they will be a tad in other coastal areas as the sea breeze kicks in. The low cloud and mist may become more extensive through the evening and overnight which again will be quite cool under clear skies. But by 00 Sunday cloud and rain with a freshening wind will encroach N. Ireland and western Scotland as fronts associated with the low over Iceland track east. Through Sunday the front tracks a little further south east thus continuing patchy rain with cooler temps and quite breezy in the north west whilst elsewhere the ridge continues to dominate and another warm and sunny day will unfold with the same caveat vis low cloud in the east and sea breezes. Monday will be another very warm and sunny day for most, the exception being the west of N. Ireland and the Western Isles where the front is still loitering. But changes are afoot to the west. Another cut off upper low has formed west of Iberia, courtesy of renewed ridging north east of the Atlantic high pressure, which invigorates the low pressure to the south which moves north introducing an easterly and perhaps some convective activity.in the south as the ridge is pushed north east. By Tuesday this has resulted in a high cell north of the UK and with the aforementioned low pressure safely ensconced to the south there is a light easterly over the UK leading to another very warm day, apart from the north of Scotland where the front is still lingering. Still a risk of some thundery outbreaks over central England and Wales. A not dissimilar story on Wednesday except the high pressure has shifted north east over Scandinavia albeit still maintaining the easterly over the UK and still the possibility of convective activity in the south in what will be another warm and sunny day for everyone. According to the gfs around now is rather a key time as the upper trough to the south gets a further boost which tends to establish an anticyclonic/low pressure north south split but which will prevail?

As we get to the business end of the ECM, here starting at T120: Noteworthy how north the jet stream is. T168: That low in Spain is worth keeping an eye on in future runs, if that positions correctly could result in a decent plume. Finally T240 great guns! I've decided that I'm just going to pick the emojis at random, now here's the end of the run:

+168

Glorious ECM this evening Its generally warm all the way through .. sorry cant post images

So we've got an ensemble mean chart at T192, that's 8 days away, from the GEFS with a 1030 contour on it over the UK. What's not to like? there's so many emojis now how do you choose? I went for comfortable shoes in the end.

Then it turns off the flamethrower!..quite a cold and unsettled end to may / start to june❄❄❄

ECM ensemble mean from the 0z run, 1030 over the UK on a mean chart at T192 is a very strong signal for fantastic weather. And it still isn't actually summer! Edit, tried to post animation but didn't work, here's the T192 mean chart:

Wowsers. The jet on the GFS

AS others have said, I cannot remember seeing the jet that high before. It’s quite astonishing. Really early to say and I don’t want to jinx it, but I really think this summer will be a good one.

Out and about early this morning, cool start with fog. Clearer further inland. Here’s a picture of the sunrise to go with the sunset pictures last night.

A new thread for all things convective around the UK going into the summer of 2018. Old thread here: Convective weather relating to Europe should go into here: A chance of a few thunderstorms this week with central and southern parts of England and Wales looking most at risk. Although Monday is now moving into the reliable timeframe it is still too early to discuss specifics for the week as a whole. It is likely though that this week will provide some thundery showers or storms for a few of us. An easterly flow will probably favour more western areas for home grown storms, but elevated storms from the continent could also affect southern and south-eastern areas at times.

Lovely looking Ecm 12z ensemble mean tonight, summery from start to finish with power to add well beyond day 10...generally pleasantly warm settled weather with lots of strong late May sunshine..a risk of isolated thunderstorms across the south during the week ahead with continental inflow, overall it's a superb summer-like anticyclonic looking mean for late spring..nationwide with the jet pushed well to the north, up near greenland, iceland and northern scandinavia...hopefully there will be plenty more charts like these during the next four months!?️

Here's the first half of the GFS 6z (the half that counts!) and the Scandi high is impressive: And the heat from the south is only getting closer, largely driven by that low camped out west of Spain. T192:

Back in Sussex this afternoon. Enjoying a pint in the beer garden at The Horse and Groom pub in Rushlake Green. Bit chilly now, thinks its around 13c. See Manchester was 21 c today, will be heading up there on Monday. The model charts are very encouraging for next week almost everywhere ,especially in Northwest England. C

Models all in agreement of a continuation of the dry settled theme - which in turn will deliver for many a predominantly protracted dry spell - something we haven't had for quite some time. However, chance of some thundery outbreaks next week, very localised and small scale features, but some places could see a deluge in a short space of time. As we move towards Bank Holiday, signal for heights to settle over Scandi but becoming east-west aligned as heights lower over S Europe - there is therefore every chance a quick retrogression of heights to the NW - or just a mid atlantic high, so not surprised to GFS evolution this evening -but that's a long way off. For now, we have lots more dry settled warm clear sky weather to enjoy, superb all round, comfortable enough for sleeping,comfortable enough for doing outdoor stuff, marvellous for vigorous late spring growth. No hazy skies either. We could be about to see two back to back excellent bank holiday weekends - when was the last time we could say that. Can it sustain.. probabilities say no.. so just enjoy it. Summer is notoriously more likely to be unsettled than Spring - something that we need to remind ourselves when we are staring at the atlantic in July and August!

Agreed, this is where I come first each morning to see what’s happening

Max temps Tuesday/Weds and maybe the odd showery outbreak according to the ecm The general short range evolution is very similar to the gfs

It's been a very interesting spring and it feels as though it has swung towards the extremes at times. The cold, coldest Spring day on record by absolute measurement and the St Patrick's Day weekend was very cold, it was -1C at midday at Manchester Airport. Then there was the heat, 2nd hottest April in record by absolute measurement. There was a prolong period of sunlessness during early April, now a prolonged period of sunshine during May. For England and Wales, the 8th wettest March on record. Wettest March-April period for England and Wales since 1998. May is turning increasingly into a very dry month now.

Not quite sure why I'm awake at this time in the morning, but take a look at the GEM 0z: And GFS T204, a 1040 high, at this time of year? Looks a bit like a flat fish too.

A brief summary from me about tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean which, in a nutshell looks...summery

UKMO extended is fine and dry southern counties need to keep an eye on those showers (Thunderstorms?) over France they could easily move a bit further north

ECM says all’s well up to next Sunday with uppers generally between 5-10 range for England. Looks a much better outlook for Scotland this time also esp the North west where it’s been cloudy. At +216 the low has lost the fight I think and pushed to it’s little corner

CFS watch, yesterday's runs for June, Z500 anomalies, here we go 18z first: One dud but, quietly confident that the overall trend is positive.

The GEM 12z looks interesting, here with that massive high we've seen on other runs at T180: Then this at T240: Heading to Greenland, hope not, and think not as well.

Fine summer day spoilt only by the strong wind . Currently 21c Having said that the first signs of drought are appearing in the drying wind. Just weeded the garden and seedling weeds are already crisp. Cut the domestic grasses this morning probably for a while unless we get appreciable rain fairly soon. On my travels with the mower noticed that a contoneaster ( spelling) plant that had been completely burnt off by the beast from the east on the 28th of February is showing signs of growth lower down.Will probably prune out the dead wood later this summer. Even on a great summers day there are reminders of winter.

Lemme guess.. light southerly wind pushing in sea mist?

few GFS runs now, and bbc give a vile day for this Thursday? thought it was looking fine?

06z is even better if its warm weather you are after! Fine weekend isn't it? shame I don't feel 100% but this certainly reminds me of a weekend in April 2011. Seemed to be gloriously warm and sunny then too. Must be all that geo-engineering to try and keep the clouds away for the royal wedding .

Yes MWB, the persistent sceuro upper ridge has been the story thus far and the pretty decent may we have had was well forecast on the back of this. not convinced that this sustains going forward into June with the pattern seeming to edge further west. Analysis of that can wait until it firms up

Accounting for stations moves and the UHI is part of the data homogenisation So adjusting and correcting for know errors and biases are now considered anti-scientific by some. Trumpisms are spreading.

We've gone from a great winter and early spring snow to a great summer.

Good Morning everyone. It looks like it will be another glorious day here in the the southeast and East Anglia today. i will be off to the allotment to catch up on lost time as work on it started late this year because of the earlier wet conditions. Kind Regards Dave

Up early with the missus, before she set off for a 12 hour shift, at a Residential Care Home in Chislehurst. They are having a "Royal Wedding" themed lunch today, for the residents and the Home is bedecked, in bunting. Hope mods don't mind, as the country is in "wedding mode", thought it might be nice to share weather memories, of our wedding days. Mine and Colette's wedding day was on 15th February, 2010. It was a pretty chilly day, max temps were only around 4c/5c. When we came out of the Registry Office, in Sidcup, N.W.Kent, we posed for our photos, in light wintry flurries, natures own, "natural confetti". Here is the synoptic chart, from that day: As you can see, my bride only had a thin, lacy cardigan on, over her wedding dress, poor thing!! What were weather conditions like, for your wedding. Did you get married in a violent thunderstorm, or heavy snow? Perhaps you could also post up a synoptic chart, from the day of your wedding? Regards, Tom.

Sun dogs over Tamworth yesterday evening. Seen through a train window.

I take back what I said void , I bet this is a very common practice for your brethren , deciding that thermometers were no longer capable of measuring temperature , so they substitute a " homogenized" temperature , and guess what !!! it better suits all those incredibly accurate climate models that they keep bringing out ( none of which has been successful in predicting anything , ever , not one climate model has been right )

How about instead of constant commenting about how much you don't like heat you actually show some charts? If anyone posted in the winter period along the opposite lines, ie a mild preference, the forum would be in uproar. I fully accept some folk have physical issues with hot weather or cold weather but your posts hardly ever show what is 'nasty' 'awful' et. The charts from any model does show not much in the way of cooler weather on average but neither is there, to me any sign, of unusual heat. No charts for once from me but check out the last GFS or ECMWF or for closer range the Met O charts? For the 6-15 day range then the links below show that, on balance, our weather is more likely to be settled rather than unsettled but with exceptions. More changeable for the NW and with the threat of thundery outbreaks from time to time for some more southern area. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

ECM upgrading the high this evening on the 12z It could be a long time until this high loses its grip over the UK

Unfortunately not, but looking at surrounding sites I imagine it was easily 270+hours around here.

Calling me Paul? How very dare you. I'm not from Essex thank you very much.

Evening All! What some great weather coming up ! This weekends weather is just perfect for the FA Cup and of course the Royal wedding. Looks extremely blocked the weather pattern at the moment, but pressure falling for southern Britain early next week allowing for some slow moving thunderstorms....Watch this space....

Narcissus

Indeed. This model truly has been utterly woeful recently! The verification stats may paint a different story, but for our parts it has just been dire.

I'm aware its in FI and its two weeks away and I'm aware FI should be took with a pinch of salt but I think you missed the part I said lots can change. This is model chat not High pressure chat.

Hi - yes, some very relevant points made A favourite period of the year for me with the long hours of daylight. Autumnal weather set in comparatively early in September last year (no summer extension on this occasion) so the recurrent warm spells arriving following a cold and wet first half of the Spring have been especially welcome in my opinion with natural hopes of plenty more to come in the many weeks ahead of us. These warm spells are a good point to begin the starting analysis. Why have they happened, and why is it important that the factors behind them sustain to allow seasonal wavelengths to augment them, rather than increasingly detract from them as happened last summer for example? The tropics have been active in respect of MJO convection for several months. Everyone knows of the spectacular tropical cycle which helped engineer the SSW in February - but what has happened since. This is a layered profile of the atmosphere from top to bottom for the opening months of 2018 - which tells the story well. The classic down-welling series of the negative zonal anomalies evident from the stratosphere to the tropopause layers as triggered by the massive SSW - a series of higher latitude easterlies which persisted into the first half of April. Rather accounting for the weather type seen through the first half of the Spring with a supressed Jetstream and persistent -AO/-NAO pattern A change quite suddenly appeared in the middle of April with the polar field switching +ve in tandem with the Atlantic profile to +NAO. If we take a look at the trends of total and relative atmospheric angular momentum we can see a pattern reflective of the changes across the polar field and the tropospheric pattern. Seasonal wavelength changes heading into Spring in tandem with falling atmospheric angular momentum following the SSW locked in the longwave pattern to -AO/-NAO . However, during this time with the tropics remaining active, a series of +AAM anomalies propagated poleward over time in accordance with this activity and c/o co-operation in the extra-tropics in the form of repeated +ve mountain torques over Asia creating a jet extension across the Pacific and adding westerly winds to the global atmospheric circulation. (Notice also the corresponding peak in +AAM tendency in the plot above in the second half of April along with the recovery in GLAAM reflecting those additions of westerly winds). These westerlies aided a recovery in atmospheric angular momentum tendency and the poleward +AAM wave train eddies manifested anti-cyclonic wave breaking with anomalous mid latitude ridges bubbling up downstream which have assisted the jet stream north and warm air advection patterns replacing the dominant cold air advection and troughing of the supressed jet stream -veAAM/SSW legacy. Another way of looking at the attempted ocean/atmosphere steer away from La Nina type forcing is the -ve trending of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) downwards from persistent +ve numbers in March (signifying a Nina-ish tendency) to much more neutral figures in the last few weeks https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/ So, we have continued to reap the benefits of the lagged effects of these westerly additions through the much better surface conditions (overall) in this second half of Spring - the periodicity (timeline recurrence) of the MJO has shown its influence in this respect of large contribution towards determining longer range weather patterns, and the possibility of using these intra seasonal phenomena for assisting longer range prediction. This overview of the seasonal evolution since the end of the winter, provides us with clues as to trends to look for ahead as another summer rapidly approaches. We also have the La Nina legacy hanging over us in terms of how things evolved from this time last year, which after all also provided some early season warmth and sunshine before, ultimately going downhill by mid summer as easterly trade winds surged repeatedly and retrogressed the fine warm anticyclonic early pattern into an Atlantic height and downstream UK trough anomaly. The standing wave pattern of La Nina which has dominated everything for the last 2 yrs, (despite a few notable "destructively acting" disconnects of relatively higher AAM such as in February this yr leading up to the SSW) really needs to be unshackled over the coming 4 to 6 weeks to ensure that a reasonable chance that the jet stream shift seen since mid April and the presently highly enjoyable fine weather continues. As of the here and now, we see westerlies being scrubbed from the atmospheric circulation as easterly trade winds increase in response to kelvin wave activity in the I/O These easterlies propagating across the Pacific and with both total and relative tendency of atmospheric angular momentum snapping backwards. The Global Wind Oscillation, which is a plot depiction of total wind-flows in the tropics and extra tropics, has largely been orbiting between Phases 0/4 ( signal for downstream mid latitude ridging) since mid April and is falling back into La Nina territory Phases 1/2 in reflection of the tropical signal rooted in the Western Hemisphere At the moment, being still in Spring, the significance of easterlies being added upstream amplifying the Pacific pattern and decelerating the jet downstream remains a benign enough one ( @Singularity analysis is very good here). However, (assuming for just one moment the atmospheric circulation remains close to where we are at present in light of latest drop backwards) seasonal wavelength changes heading into the summer which is fast approaching increasingly suggest a retrogressive pull of the long wave pattern with the spectre of that Atlantic ridge and downstream trough returning if the ocean/atmosphere relationship cannot fully break down the legacy of the La Nina standing wave. This (in this scenario) would mean that despite the ENSO regime "technically" returning more neutral in association with many forecasted expectations - there would still be a -ve adjustment/disconnect to the atmosphere which inclines the AAM budget within the atmosphere being pre-disposed towards greater easterly wind-flow inertia and hence high pressure in both the Pacific and Atlantic - rather than a longwave more Nino-ish pattern of, the reverse profile, of Pacific and Atlantic troughs and respective downstream ridges. The trough in our locale under summer type +AAM/El Nino type forcing being repeatedly focussed/re-set to our west in the Atlantic and the ridges over Western Europe and Scandinavia. There is of course every possibility that this latter hoped for scenario prevails to underpin some of the promising seasonal modelling indications. If we take a look at the above copied GWO spider graph of the on-going low AAM phase of the tropical/extra tropical cycle , the Phase 1,2 orbit of the GWO is thus discernibly shallower than that of 6 weeks back. This reflects the overall grip that La Nina has relaxed on the atmosphere - though clearly not yet gone completely. Its important that we see a willingness of persisting MJO tropical activity supporting further bounces in +ve AAM anomaly wave trains, but more important still an eastward shift of the locale of this tropical activity from the Western Hemisphere Such an eastward shift in the location of tropical activity seeking cooperation from the extra tropics in form of more +ve torque mechanisms adding further westerly winds to the atmosphere to prevent the sort of deja vu of a La Nina type summer and instead keep building downstream ridges and reinforcing the trough in the Atlantic (and not the UK and Europe). This type of persisting +AAM anomaly trade between tropics and extra tropics would see the GWO orbit more sustainably keeping away from the La Nina Phases 1,2 and 3. The present atmospheric profile, as shown at the start of this post, is conducive to a +AO profile, which even with a de-coupled -NAO would clearly be very good for warm/plume advection - though its still early in this respect and there is time for things to change if a persisting lower angular momentum regime in tandem with eQBO gained ascendency and increases heights across the pole and encourages blocking in the North Atlantic and supressed temperatures as the tropospheric pattern retrogresses. 30mb zonally averaged winds at the equator. -ve QBO phase in italics and April figure in bold. 2017 14.92 14.78 14.35 13.88 8.01 -3.18 -10.48 -14.42 -15.28 -16.79 -17.20 -18.12 2018 -19.02 -19.37 -19.77 -21.41 http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data Aside from any La Nina disconnect considerations as part of any downside analysis, should we evolve on the upside towards a more El Nino type circulation or even a weak Modoki El Nino state during the later summer and then further on into the autumn (i.e the eastern most Pacific zone remains relatively cool and convergence winds in both the eastern and western Equatorial Pacific focus a tropical convection signal as well as help upwell warming sub waters in the Central Pacific) then there are examples such as 1990, 1994 and 2004 to draw on. These years have all displayed the virtuous cycle nature of repeated downstream ridging at least at some stage in the heart of those summers in our locale - and bringing very warm/hot conditions (and with the exception of 1990) a fair amount of thundery activity (c/o temporary trough intrusion overspreading and destabilising the heat) for the weather enthusiast who likes some added interest to blue skies and hot sunshine as well Lets hope that this early season promise leads on to more, and not less, for a change