Leaderboard

And it is two weeks away... always easy to point out a cool, wet chart when you get into FI eh? The GFS is fantastic in the closer range and it will be interesting to see how widespread the storms will get on Tuesday. The disparity in the output from this morning comes with the strength of the high pressure to our north which emerges next week. With a lot of cold air bottled up in the North Atlantic there is a chance the Atlantic jet could wake up a bit more and push things further east. The GFS has been very persistent though in forecasting that not to happen. If it doesn't we are looking at a lengthy warm spell. In fact, using the GFS to calculate forecast CET, I have it at 13.5C to end the month. Given the GFS tends to underestimate maxima it wouldn't surprise me if we saw a CET of around 13.8C at the end if the 06z came off. That would make it the warmest May since 1848.

Lovely 00z runs with HP generally in charge.. looks like ukmo has shifted a bit to the GFS this morning.

Really happy with what the Ecm 12z is showing this evening..even more happy if it verifies, plenty of summery weather on these charts..nationwide..with power to add beyond T+240 hours!

Cracking ecm - warm air hanging around all week, temps Into the mid twenties, and the chance of some hefty storms in places if that floats your boat. Lovely stuff!

ECM upgrading the high this evening on the 12z It could be a long time until this high loses its grip over the UK

A brief summary from me about tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean which, in a nutshell looks...summery

Ukmo looking marvellous at +96 and +120 and +144

Of course it can change... when the output is at T384. It's hardly a trend is it?, neither the 00z, 18z or 12z showed it. If it had been at something like T180 then it would be a different story. Plus our weather is driven by the positioning of high pressure cells so maybe you should expect a lot of high pressure chat on the model output thread?

Here's the forecast based on the 06z GFS Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg) 11.9C to the 18th... +0.9 (10.3: -1.1) 12.0C to the 19th... +0.9 (13.6: +1.8) 12.1C to the 20th... +1.0 (14.5: +2.2) 12.3C to the 21st... +1.1 (16.0: +3.9) 12.5C to the 22nd... +1.2 (15.8: +3.6) 12.6C to the 23rd... +1.3 (16.1: +3.3) 12.8C to the 24th... +1.4 (16.6: +3.3) 13.0C to the 25th... +1.6 (18.3: +5.8) 13.1C to the 26th... +1.6 (15.0: +2.6) 13.1C to the 27th... +1.6 (13.8: +1.7) A steady warming trend for the foreseeable future. No days yet appear to threaten any daily records, but a reasonable warm spell nonetheless Something else to keep an eye on, the warmest April and May combinations! The top 5 are 12.0C (2011) 11.7C (1893) 11.6C (1788, 1798, 1865) As April was 9.8C, to equal joint third warmest combination we need a May of 13.3C. 2nd place requires 13.5C, both of which lie within the realm of possibility this year. The warmest combination requires May to finish on at least 14.1C, which looks very unlikely.

Looking at 00z UKMO high pressure will be with us most of next week quite a prolonged dry and pleasantly warm spell developing now

Think a big shift this morning from UKMO to GFS model after reinvigorates heights again to the north of this latest run . Maybe see a change in the Met Office wording forecast in the outlook period. Again, West and North looks good in this set up and I cannot see much rain or cooler than normal temps in this location. Looking forward to some nice Blighty sunshine on my arrival tomorrow for a couple of weeks visit. C

Here we go again. Just had to pinch myself to make sure I wasn’t dreaming what a speechless run

It's the stuff of dreams for an avid warm sunny summer lover. To think most years a small ridge of HP here and there is a treat out in FI.... Long may it continue

UKMO/GFS look lovely with plenty of warmth and high pressure on offer, EC looks similar out to 192 were we have this chart- One of the best Mays i can remember looks odds on to finish beautiful.

GEFS ensemble mean at T192, if you want warm settled weather UK wide with possible thunder in the south, this gives possibilities for both, let's see what happens

CFS watch, yesterday's runs for Z500 anomalies for June, 18z first: All looking very promising. So with yesterday's mixed output, and the day before strongly promoting anticyclone dominated weather, I think the long range output is great!

The Gfs 6z shows an Arctic blast at the beginning of summer with snow on northern hills / mountains!

Evening All! What some great weather coming up ! This weekends weather is just perfect for the FA Cup and of course the Royal wedding. Looks extremely blocked the weather pattern at the moment, but pressure falling for southern Britain early next week allowing for some slow moving thunderstorms....Watch this space....

Clouded over for a while this afternoon but cleared again this evening, just about caught the sunset.

Great output from the ECM tonight, I've been holding back until the rest of the end of the run here at t240: One run, but a significant run,

I can’t remember charts like these with high pressure covering the whole Atlantic The Jet is way north, ridiculously so if I may add. What a run!

You say ‘spoil’...

Really liking the GFS 12z, here's the evolution up to T192, T24 and then daily: Edit: Technology defeated me on this post, I'll try and complete it again: No real mentions of T850s recently because they are average, but this could change, T192, sucking something up from the south?

I'm aware its in FI and its two weeks away and I'm aware FI should be took with a pinch of salt but I think you missed the part I said lots can change. This is model chat not High pressure chat.

Yes more great charts this morning, I've been saying for a week or two now that this could be one of the great Mays in terms of sunshine. No heatwave being shown this morning by any of the main models but the GFS looks much better than the ECM for warmth- suggestions by the GFS that some central and southern areas could reach the mid 20s from Tuesday onwards.

Not surprisingly the overnight NH pattern is much as expected with the key players remaining the Greenland trough, the Scandinavian ridge and low pressure in the western Mediterranean. Thus the srong westerly upper flow diverges in mid Atlantic courtesy the block The 250mb wind field might help clarify what I was waffling about above. On the other hand it might not Today after a cool and clear night virtually everywhere will have another warm and sunny day. The exception being the north west of Scotland where a front is still hanging around thus cloud and some patchy rain. East Anglian coasts may be a tad cooler but the winds are lighter than yesterday. After another clear and quite chilly night in places and then tomorrow will be warm and sunny just about everywhere, the front eventually drifts away from north west Scotland. Temps a little higher than today but a little lower around some coasts if the odd sea breeze kicks in. But by 00 Sunday fronts associated with the deep low near Iceland have tracked east and introduced cloud and rain, with a strengthening south west wind, into N. Ireland and the western Isles. Overnight and through Sunday the front stalls to the west as it hits the buffers of the high cell to the east ridging south west into the UK thus whilst most of the UK has another warm and sunny day N. Ireland and western Scotland will continue to experience cloud and patchy rain. Another consequence of this is the major upper trough to the west comes under extra pressure as the Bermuda high begins to amplify north east By Monday the pressure on the upper trough has resulted in a cut off low slipping south east to merge with the low pressure over the western Mediterranean The upshot of all this on the surface is a continuation of cloud and rain in N. Ireland and western Scotland whilst elsewhere it will be a very warm day with a risk of some heavy showers in the south By Tuesday the front has moved a tad east so cloud and some patchy rain in western areas but it is another very warm day with distinct possibility of thundery showers developing in the south The rainfall distribution tends to illustrate this scenario.

Excellent EC mean with little sign of the jet moving south, in fact if anything the opposite with the jet lifting further north.

The GEFS 12z mean is showing generally summery weather natiowide, apart from eastern coasts almost until the end of may but Exeter MO are talking about unsettled with spells of rain and cool temps across W / NW uk next week which is nothing like the mean is showing, indeed it would be the W / NW which gets the warmest, driest and sunniest weather in the set up shown next week..and further ahead.

A very pleasant and warm day here with temps around 18C - 20C during the afternoon - great for working outside, striving to get the garden under some form of neatness and order. For added interest, there were some nice cloud formations too.

Sunny Blackpool. Get the high in the right place and can be scorching on the Fylde coast. Currently its warmer than SE coastal resorts. Hope it stays fine for your holiday. C

Amazing picture from Val d'lsere taken on May 14th ! ...a never ending snow season . Just though this would cheer up snow and mountain lovers who cannot wait for next season to arrive... C

The ICON 18z run is finished and it looks great at T120, the end of the short run: This unsettled blip might not even happen. GFS 18z at T156

There's plenty of high pressure and warmth on the Ecm 12z for most of the uk during the days ahead with a good deal of dry and sunny weather, the exception being the far NW where it looks cooler and more unsettled. Early next week there is an increasing chance of thundery showers breaking out across the s / se due to a warmer more humid continental inflow and then things briefly turn cooler / fresher from the NW before the azores high builds in later next week and it warms up again, at least across southern uk...it's still spring but there is more summery weather on the way, especially across southern uk.

Indeed. This model truly has been utterly woeful recently! The verification stats may paint a different story, but for our parts it has just been dire.

All you posted was an image. You didn't (and still haven't) explained the point you were attempting to make. Yes, I can tell it's Antarctic ice thickness, but by posting a link to the source (where the original image comes from) it might help to answer a few questions about the model such as: How long has it been in use? What validation has been done? How accurate is it? Is it primarily based on observational data or models? The kind of questions anyone with a sceptical mindset might have. Just from the images, it says it covers 65-70 degrees south. Do you think that covers all the sea ice? So, mind posting a link to the climate change denier blog you stole those images from? Equipment gets updated, stations get moved, techniques improve, spatial coverage improves, biases are identified and corrected, and all this is explained in published papers and reports so everything can be tested and replicated. If you want to really criticise the temperature record, you need to find the papers that detail the changes made and the explanations for them, then demonstrate why they are wrong. Anything else just comes across as conspiracy theories. Are you familiar with Richard Muller, @tablet?

OK if you follow the GFS evolution you can see where this comes from at T240: But then explain this at T336 Nonsense. Here's the GEM at T240: Now thats a chart with promise to add!

Same with west Wales where we're going next week, highs up to 20C in Tenby so very warm for a coastal resort in May but unfortunately there's an increasing risk of thundery showers so might not be beach weather for me lol, Blackpool is great and there's much less risk of catching a shower/storm there next week. Enjoy

The high res. MODIS at 1122 UTC (courtesy DSRS). There is a lot of Ci down here. Interesting cloud over the south east coast

Good afternoon all Well, like a few others on here, its safe to say that I'm enjoying this summery spell of weather after the squelch fest that April was! But also I'm starting to feel a little storm starved, so I thought I'd have a quick look to see if there is anything of possible interest on the horizon... And guess what? ?️ So, here is what the 00z GFS run is showing for next week... Lets start off with Monday and work through to Friday. Now I'm not saying that there is going to be a storm on any of these days, but, it does show that at least we have storm potential. ?️

12.0 to the 17th 1.4 above the 61 to 90 average 1.0 above the 81 to 10 average

What's this, what's this? Talk of thunder next week??? My allotment is on a hill and I can see from Marlow to Bagshot/Ascot which must be 20 miles away and would be brilliant to watch storms, but unfortunately there is no place to shelter at all! Looking forward to a mad planing out session on Sunday now the chilliest of the night is over.

The fax chart not without interest on Sunday night into Monday.Two troughs appear to be moving toward the SE from the Low Countries.

Dawn to dusk unbroken sunshine, light winds, comfortable maximum temperature of 17C and useable daylight at 22:00. Yep, the perfect Scottish weather day in my book

Next week it looks like there is a possibility of low pressure developing over northern Iberia, or the Bay of Biscay hence the energy being pushed northwards presenting the risk of some storms. However, it looks as though the energy will follow more of a east-west transition rather than being pushed from south to north. With a bit of luck, that will change over the next few days meaning that the northern half of the country can join in on the potential fun.

Its all looking good and backs up the metoffice post i put up last week about them being bullish about the next few weeks, stunning is what id say. Quick one for you frosty, i find it ironic reading your posts which i do everyday with great interest about the prospects for the coming weeks and the heat and sun, but its your name tag FROSTY that make me chuckle when i read about heat. Maybe you should change it this summer to SWEATY lol on account of the warm weather not your personal hygiene id like to add LO

Now that's bank holiday weather with this slightly reverse fish shaped high pressure nosing in on the FIM9 at T240 :

The only caveat to the ECM 12z is at the end, where other models have settled weather, this run throws a brief spanner, although I expect the high pressure to ridge in again in the next frame or two. T240: Looking at the ECM mean, however, next ridge of high pressure still oncoming at same time, strong signal: Interesting to compare these, the ECM mean is seeing nothing of the low east of Iceland on the op run, suggesting it's a rogue feature.

ECM looks like a halfway house between GFS and UKMO models at 144t, sort of sitting on the fence. If GFS longer term charts come off , you will be in for a very nice spell of early summer weather. C

Leave Megan Markle's family out of this....

Major difference at 144t comparing GFS model with the latest UKMO model. For some reason the UKMO drops heights to the North and East, sort follows their worded forecast as reported earlier. Whereas, GFS maintains the high pressure across much of the country. This scenario is well backed by our forecasts over here. North and West Britain not getting the cooler temps and rainfall in the period post 144t as Met Office have suggested in their medium term forecasts. See what ECM brings. Maybe UKMO model going off one ! C