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Another cracker from UKMO with high pressure always close by Would be brilliant if this pattern can hold on through summer. After a long winter, I see no reason why we can't get a long summer

No change from UKMO with high pressure continuing into next week

Actually I forgot to mention the Ecm 00z is not only a run dominated by high pressure and pleasant surface conditions, it's also very warm / humid at times further s / se with some continental influence which brings a risk of a few thunderstorms for a time so it's really a more summery late spring pattern as we approach the start of the meteorological summer..already it feels like we've had plenty of summer, hopefully will set the tone for the next four months!

Gfs 12z looks predominantly fine and rather warm..the Gefs 12z mean looks even better with the jet up near iceland..for those of us who enjoy fine weather, it's looking very good!

Another very nice Ecm run this morning, the 00z shows plenty of pleasant warmth, high pressure / strong ridging for most of the uk, just a tad more unsettled from time to time across the far NW but for the majority it's looking good and high pressure is centred over the uk at day 10. Ps..most of the Gfs 00z looks very nice too

Switching to long range, here's the last four CFS Z500 anomalies for June. First up yesterday's 18z, and then the three previous ones: Taken with other output, current trends etc., if anyone isn't calling a hot early summer, they want to take a look at themselves! (You can quote that back at me if it doesn't happen, but it seems that everything is pointing that way!)

Really liking the ICON 12z...another early taste of summer!

ECM ensemble mean doesn't tell us much new early on, still slight, very slight, deterioration of conditions early next week, then march on the next high at T240, strong signal this on a mean chart at T240:

ECM 12z looking good long term, and I think long term is the prize here. So T120, we're in between highs similar to GFS, but it's not going to be that significant , maybe a bit cloudy at times, here: But another high builds back in here at T216, so long as this keeps happening (and it's consistent with long range models as far as that goes), we're in for a cracking summer: Edit: just slip in the T240 Next one on the way!

There's lots to like about the Gefs 12z mean, it's showing a prolonged largely settled spell with plenty of high pressure, initially from the blocking high to the E / NE and then more so from the azores high further ahead...and ample warm sunshine

Hi - yes, some very relevant points made A favourite period of the year for me with the long hours of daylight. Autumnal weather set in comparatively early in September last year (no summer extension on this occasion) so the recurrent warm spells arriving following a cold and wet first half of the Spring have been especially welcome in my opinion with natural hopes of plenty more to come in the many weeks ahead of us. These warm spells are a good point to begin the starting analysis. Why have they happened, and why is it important that the factors behind them sustain to allow seasonal wavelengths to augment them, rather than increasingly detract from them as happened last summer for example? The tropics have been active in respect of MJO convection for several months. Everyone knows of the spectacular tropical cycle which helped engineer the SSW in February - but what has happened since. This is a layered profile of the atmosphere from top to bottom for the opening months of 2018 - which tells the story well. The classic down-welling series of the negative zonal anomalies evident from the stratosphere to the tropopause layers as triggered by the massive SSW - a series of higher latitude easterlies which persisted into the first half of April. Rather accounting for the weather type seen through the first half of the Spring with a supressed Jetstream and persistent -AO/-NAO pattern A change quite suddenly appeared in the middle of April with the polar field switching +ve in tandem with the Atlantic profile to +NAO. If we take a look at the trends of total and relative atmospheric angular momentum we can see a pattern reflective of the changes across the polar field and the tropospheric pattern. Seasonal wavelength changes heading into Spring in tandem with falling atmospheric angular momentum following the SSW locked in the longwave pattern to -AO/-NAO . However, during this time with the tropics remaining active, a series of +AAM anomalies propagated poleward over time in accordance with this activity and c/o co-operation in the extra-tropics in the form of repeated +ve mountain torques over Asia creating a jet extension across the Pacific and adding westerly winds to the global atmospheric circulation. (Notice also the corresponding peak in +AAM tendency in the plot above in the second half of April along with the recovery in GLAAM reflecting those additions of westerly winds). These westerlies aided a recovery in atmospheric angular momentum tendency and the poleward +AAM wave train eddies manifested anti-cyclonic wave breaking with anomalous mid latitude ridges bubbling up downstream which have assisted the jet stream north and warm air advection patterns replacing the dominant cold air advection and troughing of the supressed jet stream -veAAM/SSW legacy. Another way of looking at the attempted ocean/atmosphere steer away from La Nina type forcing is the -ve trending of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) downwards from persistent +ve numbers in March (signifying a Nina-ish tendency) to much more neutral figures in the last few weeks https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/ So, we have continued to reap the benefits of the lagged effects of these westerly additions through the much better surface conditions (overall) in this second half of Spring - the periodicity (timeline recurrence) of the MJO has shown its influence in this respect of large contribution towards determining longer range weather patterns, and the possibility of using these intra seasonal phenomena for assisting longer range prediction. This overview of the seasonal evolution since the end of the winter, provides us with clues as to trends to look for ahead as another summer rapidly approaches. We also have the La Nina legacy hanging over us in terms of how things evolved from this time last year, which after all also provided some early season warmth and sunshine before, ultimately going downhill by mid summer as easterly trade winds surged repeatedly and retrogressed the fine warm anticyclonic early pattern into an Atlantic height and downstream UK trough anomaly. The standing wave pattern of La Nina which has dominated everything for the last 2 yrs, (despite a few notable "destructively acting" disconnects of relatively higher AAM such as in February this yr leading up to the SSW) really needs to be unshackled over the coming 4 to 6 weeks to ensure that a reasonable chance that the jet stream shift seen since mid April and the presently highly enjoyable fine weather continues. As of the here and now, we see westerlies being scrubbed from the atmospheric circulation as easterly trade winds increase in response to kelvin wave activity in the I/O These easterlies propagating across the Pacific and with both total and relative tendency of atmospheric angular momentum snapping backwards. The Global Wind Oscillation, which is a plot depiction of total wind-flows in the tropics and extra tropics, has largely been orbiting between Phases 0/4 ( signal for downstream mid latitude ridging) since mid April and is falling back into La Nina territory Phases 1/2 in reflection of the tropical signal rooted in the Western Hemisphere At the moment, being still in Spring, the significance of easterlies being added upstream amplifying the Pacific pattern and decelerating the jet downstream remains a benign enough one ( @Singularity analysis is very good here). However, (assuming for just one moment the atmospheric circulation remains close to where we are at present in light of latest drop backwards) seasonal wavelength changes heading into the summer which is fast approaching increasingly suggest a retrogressive pull of the long wave pattern with the spectre of that Atlantic ridge and downstream trough returning if the ocean/atmosphere relationship cannot fully break down the legacy of the La Nina standing wave. This (in this scenario) would mean that despite the ENSO regime "technically" returning more neutral in association with many forecasted expectations - there would still be a -ve adjustment/disconnect to the atmosphere which inclines the AAM budget within the atmosphere being pre-disposed towards greater easterly wind-flow inertia and hence high pressure in both the Pacific and Atlantic - rather than a longwave more Nino-ish pattern of, the reverse profile, of Pacific and Atlantic troughs and respective downstream ridges. The trough in our locale under summer type +AAM/El Nino type forcing being repeatedly focussed/re-set to our west in the Atlantic and the ridges over Western Europe and Scandinavia. There is of course every possibility that this latter hoped for scenario prevails to underpin some of the promising seasonal modelling indications. If we take a look at the above copied GWO spider graph of the on-going low AAM phase of the tropical/extra tropical cycle , the Phase 1,2 orbit of the GWO is thus discernibly shallower than that of 6 weeks back. This reflects the overall grip that La Nina has relaxed on the atmosphere - though clearly not yet gone completely. Its important that we see a willingness of persisting MJO tropical activity supporting further bounces in +ve AAM anomaly wave trains, but more important still an eastward shift of the locale of this tropical activity from the Western Hemisphere Such an eastward shift in the location of tropical activity seeking cooperation from the extra tropics in form of more +ve torque mechanisms adding further westerly winds to the atmosphere to prevent the sort of deja vu of a La Nina type summer and instead keep building downstream ridges and reinforcing the trough in the Atlantic (and not the UK and Europe). This type of persisting +AAM anomaly trade between tropics and extra tropics would see the GWO orbit more sustainably keeping away from the La Nina Phases 1,2 and 3. The present atmospheric profile, as shown at the start of this post, is conducive to a +AO profile, which even with a de-coupled -NAO would clearly be very good for warm/plume advection - though its still early in this respect and there is time for things to change if a persisting lower angular momentum regime in tandem with eQBO gained ascendency and increases heights across the pole and encourages blocking in the North Atlantic and supressed temperatures as the tropospheric pattern retrogresses. 30mb zonally averaged winds at the equator. -ve QBO phase in italics and April figure in bold. 2017 14.92 14.78 14.35 13.88 8.01 -3.18 -10.48 -14.42 -15.28 -16.79 -17.20 -18.12 2018 -19.02 -19.37 -19.77 -21.41 http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data Aside from any La Nina disconnect considerations as part of any downside analysis, should we evolve on the upside towards a more El Nino type circulation or even a weak Modoki El Nino state during the later summer and then further on into the autumn (i.e the eastern most Pacific zone remains relatively cool and convergence winds in both the eastern and western Equatorial Pacific focus a tropical convection signal as well as help upwell warming sub waters in the Central Pacific) then there are examples such as 1990, 1994 and 2004 to draw on. These years have all displayed the virtuous cycle nature of repeated downstream ridging at least at some stage in the heart of those summers in our locale - and bringing very warm/hot conditions (and with the exception of 1990) a fair amount of thundery activity (c/o temporary trough intrusion overspreading and destabilising the heat) for the weather enthusiast who likes some added interest to blue skies and hot sunshine as well Lets hope that this early season promise leads on to more, and not less, for a change

It usually is..really liking the ukmo / icon 12z..and hopefully the Ecm 12z later!

Pretty solid on the EC ensembles for the last week in May. Just one cluster for D10 - given what comes before and after, I'm guessing this represents unity rather than disunity! It suggests yet more of the ongoing Atlantic shut-out with a good easterly influence and little rain. By D12, two clusters - it's either more settled weather over the whole of the UK, or just mostly settled with the north most at risk of occasional Atlantic incursions: Is this going to be our summer?

Today marks the transition to a different airmass once the cold front, currently the north Midlands, clears the south coast by this evening. This is not a problem as high pressure will still dominate so a spell of sunny and dry for most, albeit with a marked diurnal temp range with some ground, and even air frost possible. So today very much a north/south split with N. Ireland and Scotland and northern England clear and sunny, after a cool start, whilst central southern, south west England and Wales, cloudy with patchy light rain as the front moves south before clearing this evening. Temps will be much cooler than of late, particularly along eastern coasts where an onshore wind will prevail thanks to the high pressure building to the west. With the high cell safely esconced over the UK tonight will be clear and quite chilly leading to a pleasantly warm and sunny day tomorrow.with the usual caveat vis the east coast. Very similar on Friday although a decaying front could bring some cloud and possible some light rain the N. Ireland and north west Scotland and more cheer along the east coast as the high cell adjusts and snips the onshore wind. generally another fine and sunny day on Saturday but changes are afoot to the west where the surface features associated with the deep Atlantic trough are pushing east against the block resulting in the wind picking up in N. Ireland and western Scotland accompanied by cloud.

Well yesterday was another cloud free day and pleasantly warm despite the NNE wind. A lot more cloud today though. Now on a more serious note, can we please try and stay on topic, I say this as over two thirds of the posts from the past couple of pages have had no weather mentioned at all! Again it is okay for there to be some chat and banter but at times this thread has gone completely off track. Maybe te lounge is a better place for some of these coversations, I mean I bet the rest of the country is probably getting jealous of all of this "goat talk".

Well, it is that time again ... LONG RANGE OUTLOOK for SUMMER 2018 In general terms, I am expecting a very warm summer for the U.K. and Ireland although trending more towards normal values in western Ireland and Scotland. There is likely to be a strong continental influence especially for southeast England, probably extending to south central England and the Midlands, Yorkshire and possibly parts of eastern Scotland too. Even parts of Ireland will benefit from this influence. My reasoning for this is based on two separate factors. One is that my research model indicates higher than average index values for isolated analogue components in about three quarters of the set that I have developed. The other factor is more immediate, blocking has continued to be a fairly prominent player ever since the notable cold outbreaks of late February into March, and as many suspected, that tendency would not remain cold far into the spring but would increasingly favour warmth (also turning from northeast to southeast dominant wind flow helps with the warming effects). I suspect that the summer may rank well up there among the top all-time summers for warmth, so I will go with some relatively conservative forecasts for the three monthly CET values of 16, 18 and 17, expecting that perhaps one of these will be too low, if not more. If that verified the summer would average 17.0 and be ranked tied 9th warmest with 1933, and marginally warmer than the currently tied 10th warmest summers of 1911 and 1781 (16.97) with only these summers warmer: __ 1947 (17.03), 1983 (17.07), 1846 (17.10), 2006 (17.23), 2003 (17.33), 1995 (17.37), 1826 (17.60) and 1976 (17.77) __ Some of the summers with good reputations finished as low as 16.5 so I would certainly expect 2018 to go higher than that. With that general set-up, the chances are high that rainfall would be below average in many southern and eastern districts, and closer to normal in western portions and in the north. The most likely zone for severe or heavy thunderstorm outbreaks would be near the average position of the polar front which separates tropical from modified Atlantic air masses, and that would likely be (on average) in southwest England, Wales, portions of southeast Ireland, northwest England and east-central Scotland but at times shifting closer to a Bristol to Newcastle line. This does not of course rule out some good thunderstorms in the warmer zone and it always seems like late June is a good time frame for Channel storm developments that last overnight and rumble across southeast England. With a suitable energy peak around 30 June this is perhaps even more possible. It is unlikely that this good summer weather regime will be permanent from start to finish and if you look at the list of similar or warmer summers, some have a bias towards later warmth and some go earlier, while a few distribute well throughout. With this blocking tendency already well established I imagine that this implies either an early bias like 1846, 2006 or 1976 or a constant warmth. It can be noted that my prediction would make this the warmest summer of years ending in 8. Summers ending in six have done very well in the past (four of the top six). The current warmest summer ending in 8 would be 14th ranked 1868 (16.87) which might prove a bit of a challenge. The futility mark is that of summers ending in zero (tied 49th warmest 1730,, followed by the fours (1794 was tied 36th). Lack of solar activity is correlated with blocking and it does not seem to be an impediment to hot summers, for example 1826 in a very inactive solar regime, 13th place going to 1899 in a low solar period and even the Maunder managed to produce 15th place 1676. The hot summers in more active solar intervals are generally near solar minima also, the only one with high solar activity would be 1947 although others are shoulder years in terms of solar cycles. I find solar indices to be more useful for winter forecasting when Atlantic storminess is more of a factor. No doubt in long intervals of low solar activity, there can be runs of dismal summers due to a depressed jet stream and colder ocean temperatures, but this year does not seem to fit that scenario (yet). As to tropical activity, I would look for a very active season with perhaps 20 named storms and 12 to 14 of those being hurricanes, 5 to 7 becoming major hurricanes. In North America, I am predicting a very hot summer in the west, and also across the southeastern U.S., with a gradient towards more normal temperatures northward into the Great Lakes and northeastern U.S., leading to very frequent thunderstorm activity near oscillating frontal bands running from Alberta southeast into the Dakotas and then east-south-east into the lower Great Lakes and inland northeastern U.S. ... these regions may have some severe storms and flooding episodes as a result. The inland west may have a scorcher of a summer and widespread wildfire problems (hope I'm wrong about this, but it's 31 C outside my house right now, normal would be 19 C).

I'm a little perplexed about the comments re the GFS 12z, unless I'm missing something. Settled to Sunday Then a blip The high pressure rebuilding end next week, T210 T264 T384 Obviously the later part of the run will change, but the general pattern of anticyclonic dominance, interspersed with less settled interludes is as evident on this run as any other?

Not as cold as i thought it would be, out in a t-shirt and i feel okay, was hoping for a little sleet

A beautiful blue sky morning. Just a wee bit of a NW breeze taking the edge off the temp. And my solitary Swallow is still fleein' aboot, He's not found a friend yet. Also, there has been anither brood of baby rabbits in the garden. It was interesting listening to an item on R4 yesterday about the benefits or otherwise of the decline in rabbit population.

Brilliant from Tamara as always The modelling as a whole is shouting for the low momentum situation to lock-in for quite some time with some impressive positive GPH anomalies afoot, but if you look at the latest CFSv2 weekly maps, you can see some suggestion of a retrogressive tendency as we go into June. On the other hand, the long-range modelling in general indicates settled conditions to predominate this summer with below average rainfall and ridges tending to locate to our N and NE. Partly this appears influenced by the huge deficit in Arctic sea ice to the north of Scandinavia, but I expect some push of the atmosphere away from the La Nina imprint is also being developed behind the scenes. I personally believe that if the atmosphere fully breaks free and heads into weakly positive NINO territory by late June or early July, we'll be unlucky not to see a summer to rival some of the all-time greats. Last year did however demonstrate that the atmosphere is capable of hanging on to a La Nina imprint even with the SST anomalies venturing away from a La Nina pattern, as Tamara has very rightly reminded us. So it feels like we're being given a second shot at achieving what we almost did last summer. I too am pleased that we are in such a position .

Heating? Really?? Even with doors and windows open today my flat never dropped below 20c.

Yes there's lots to like about the Ecm 12z, especially further south as high pressure continues to rebuild in from the southwest..if that keeps happening during the months ahead, most of us will be enjoying a good / very good summer!

From the GEFS 12z mean, we can see that the next time we're in-between anticyclones is next Tuesday, T138: Reflecting the evolution of the op run, but a very clear signal for the next high to roll in, here T264: And a look at the uncertainty at the same time: Great for the UK to be away from the region of high uncertainty for a change, love the position of the jet stream.

The GFS may be struggling with the northward extent of the jet stream. We are far from a normal pattern.

Yes lets just hope that the GFS 12z is wrong.

Sunny Sheffield back up to 13.3C +3.3C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

UKMO is great....GFS 12z completely loses the plot and brings low pressure in very quickly. Hopefully it’s a massive outlier.

After a belter of a day yesterday, today is quite frankly, vile. Chilly at 14C with a strong breeze and overcast. Looks like an improving situation from tomorrow, though

T-shirt?? Must be warmer up NWLon than down here! At least theres a huge decrease in the numbers of flip flops,hairy toes and bulbous ankles on show today. Someone on MOD thread calling a hot and sunny August.

Another very nice Ecm ensemble mean, the 00z indicates predominantly fine warm weather for most of the uk during the next ten days and very good royal wedding weather for saturday too when temps are currently expected to be around 21c 70f.

Back to as you we're. Lovely again

12.2 to the 15th 1.6 above the 61 to 90 average 1.2 above the 81 to 10 average

Horrible day yesterday. Cloud cleared this morning. Picture of our local mountain with snow cover down to 1800m or so. Reports of a substantial snowfall in the local mountains at 2500m and above. Back in the UK this weekend for a bit of cricket watching and real ale search for a week or two. Just looked at our medium forecast charts and nice for much of the UK over the weekend and beyond , especially the West and North. Hints at some sort of convective low or trough development over France that may affect SE England earlier next week but that's a long way off but worth watching. C

Yes, what would be expected in a warming climate... You did read what they said?

A quiet outlook, with little in the way of unsettled weather - in a word 'dry' - not unusual for May though, this is as I keep saying the time of year when the atlantic is in slumber and we are far more likely to see sustained dry conditions, indeed a predominantly wet unsettled outlook is more unusual. Not much to discuss, high pressure ridging through the UK, could be some stubborn cloud though as it has an atlantic cool source, and it doesn't look like we will inject any continental influence into it for some time at least keeping temps near average, no significant heat in the offing, but under clear skies and sunshine and light winds by mid May it always feels much warmer than the temps suggest, indeed the sun is more powerful now than in late July - even though that is when we see yearly average means reach their peak. The current synoptics on offer at the kind of synoptics that have given rise to some of the classic summers of years gone by, the azores-scandi high link up with the jet tracking far to the north, it can be a recurring stuck pattern - but, seeing such conditions in mid May by no means they will last for the next 3 months, the summer rarely settles into its groove until late June, and its then you want to see such synoptics occur (think 1995), as there is often a tendancy for a switch to occur around then, the base state flips and settles in for the summer haul..

Really nice 12z ECM high pressure dominates & very pleasant temps Long may it continue

Satellite at 0500 and 0400 surface chart

Just to finish if possible. The fronts track further east by Sunday bringing some patchy rain to N. Ireland and western Scotland with strengthening winds whilst the rest of the country enjoys another warm and sunny day. All of this fits quite neatly into the overall NH pattern as depicted by the short term anomalies

There's another huge one at work on the pergola and that's usually a bit later than the other one, couldn't tell you which variety either of them are. The perfume though.....oh it's heavenly, love a nice still day, it fills the entire garden when there's no wind.

April 9, 2018, British Antarctic Survey - New study reveals increased snowfall in Antarctica over last two centuries https://phys.org/news/2018-04-reveals-snowfall-antarctica-centuries.html "Our new results show a significant change in the surface mass balance (from snowfall) during the twentieth century. The largest contribution is from the Antarctic Peninsula, where the annual average snowfall during the first decade of the 21st century is 10% higher than at the same period in the 19th century."

Indeed we are in a different base state than were this time in 2012, indeed we are if anything in a very similiar state to where we were in 2016 and 2017 - last 2 summers were half decent at least with some decent warmth at times. I'm not expecting a washout summer like 2012 - it was a real shocker!

True but keep in mind that April and the first two thirds of May 2012 were unsettled, so that spell was essentially a prolonged break in the broader unsettled pattern that just came back in June. This year seems quite different.

Absolutely fine!

Thank you for the welcome, I hope it's ok to keep posting here despite being an 'outsider' ?!

Hello Josh I will be one of the staff members on tour 3 and am looking forward to meeting you. This is my 17th year chasing and i have to say i am excited too. Never get tired of seeing what mother nature has to offer. You will enjoy every minute of the tour. Tom

Welcome!

lol...it's all good....just teasing..................well done on breaking your cherry in the model thread, many don't!............yup, the overnights and 12z outputs are encouraging.....not blazing heat, but it'll feel nice.....heat and plumes will come later no doubt

Travelling over from NZ a few days in advance to acclimatize and have a look around Dallas. Bloody excited for this tour!!! Bring on the bad (good) weather and a tornadofest hopefully. Josh

Good evening to my neighbours in the next door region. I'm posting here because i'm done with the thread that covers my region It's been a cracking good day here with plenty of sunshine and temperatures around 23c. I've managed to get a fair bit done in the garden and currently sitting outside enjoying a beer and the evening warmth. Long may it last.

Blank at last! 74 days in total for 2018 solar flux 70