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Showing content with the highest reputation on 10/05/18 in all areas

  1. Alright here goes nothing I'm going to try my first piece of analysis of the charts. So don't judge me if I get anything wrong I'm by no means as knowledgeable as some of the other posters on here. Anyway back on topic... The 18z looks more settled and anticyclonic than the twelve o'clock run. Think it all hinges on whether we develop any northern blocking admitidelly in the short term the weather isn't particularly inspiring but if we don't develop the blocking then prospects look a bit better down the line. The impact is shown here : The jet is split on the 12z run which means that a trough develops out to the east. On the 18z this is very different as the jet is weaker and therefore the LP system around S Greenland is weaker, so less pressure is put on the HP system which allows it to become more dominant. If you compare this to the ECM at 216hrs : The ECM seems keen to develop strong blocking around Greenland which means that low pressure is dragged underneath,Certainly the prospects from this run look unsettled compared to the other two GFS runs. The GEM seems to be closer to the ECM run however the ICON 12z is closer to the GFS 18z run not developing any blocking. The upshot is a ridge of high pressure ridging in by later next week. Which is certainly the pick of the bunch if you are looking for pleasant weather followed by the GFS with the ECM public enemy no 1 for those of a warm disposition. So I think it's easy to see why the forecasters are labelling the forecast as a bit messy and there seems to be a lot of uncertainty between the models. It will probably take another few days to resolve where we are headed. Hope this was appreciated this someone ?
    24 points
  2. The front and rain belt has continued to track east across the country overnight giving some heavy bursts of rain in places and it will be slow to cleat East Anglia and the south east this morning and probably wont until early afternoon. Behind the front a much cooler airmass for all but probably plenty of sunshine albeit interspersed with showers, particularly in Scotland where they could be quite heavy, and possibly thundery in the east later. The showers will tend to subside overnight thus a clear night, on the cool side in places, before the front and next belt of rain arrives over Ireland by 1200. The front will stagger east across the country during the rest of Friday decaying as it goes bringing patchy rain in western areas and freshening winds in the north but again not too bad in the east The general analysis at 1200 Saturday finds that the Atlantic trough has been split by the burgeoning Bermuda high pressure and the continuing resilience of the block to the east creating a cut off upper low just to the west of the UK. All of this results in a surface low north west of Ireland with the UK in a very slack gradient and rather cool changeable conditions with heavy showers, perhaps thundery, in the south west and south. A not dissimilar scenario on Sunday but the filling low to the west has slipped over Ireland and the associated occlusion will continue to bring showery rain to the south west.and generally temps around average. Monday finds the block continuing to be resilient to the energy from the west so once again a rather diffuse analysis with the UK in a very slack gradient which portends another sunny day with some showers with temps around average, perhaps a little above.
    6 points
  3. As others have said the outlook looks very messy for the next week or so, but for the models that go out longer than that, an improving outlook for the UK seems evident from the 12s. One thing that has interested me in the recent model viewing compared to winter is that with the current slow evolution, lack of strong jet, the UKMO model doesn't have much to offer in terms of guidance as it only goes to T144 on all but one site, the timescale of interest is later than that at the moment. ICON at T180: GEM looks interesting at t240, would like to see where that would go after: Potential plume? GFS at same time, weekend after next looking really good here: And still OK at the end of the run: Overall impression, considerable improvement towards the end of next week than previous runs. All good.
    5 points
  4. Morning all A notch cooler in London this morning but still pleasant enough after the overnight rain. The models were offering two very different evolutions yesterday so let's see where we are today. The medium term analysis takes us to Sunday May 20th and starts as always with the ECM 00Z at T+240: ECM not too different from yesterday. The weekend's disrupting LP fires some energy into Europe re-invigorating the trough over the continent but attempts to build HP back in are pushed south as northern blocking based over Greenland starts pushing the jet back south and the LP systems off the Atlantic start coming on a more southerly track. At T+240 the Azores HP is suppressed far to the south and the LP is moving west to east across Scotland with a second LP set to follow a similar if not slightly more southerly track. It's unsettled with rain or showers for all and quite cool especially in the north. GEM 00Z at the same time: Very different. The blocking over Greenland is much less influential while the Azores HP is much more influential sending a ridge NE to the south of the British Isles. The Atlantic LP is further north and positively tilted so we have a benign SW'ly flow for most with fine conditions for southern and eastern parts though more unsettled in the north west. Signs of the Atlantic trough digging south so we could see a spike of heat from Iberia for the second May Bank Holiday. GFS 00Z OP at the same time: A slow moving and slack evolution which ends up quite messy. As I said yesterday, you have two competing pressure patterns at work. To the west of the British Isles, we have the classic LP to the north west and HP to the south west (though the latter is very shallow on this output). To the east, heights over Scandinavia are balanced by LP over southern Europe originating from North Africa. The British Isles ends up in the col between these competing pressure systems so decent conditions particularly for the south and east but more unsettled further north and west where the Atlantic influence is most noticeable. Further into FI pressure builds through the British Isles from the Azores to Scandinavia keeping most fine but LP remains over Europe and for the south east there would be a light NE'ly and the risk of a shower (more so for the Channel Islands). GFS 00Z Control at T+240: Pretty close to GEM with the Azores ridge holding off the Atlantic LP which is quite vigorous for the time of year. Further into FI HP remains mostly in charge but at the very end of FI, as the HP weakens, the European LP starts to take control with a new LP extending NW across southern Britain suggesting thundery outbreaks. Welcome back to the GFS Parallel run and I'll be featuring this rather than the Control from now on and here's the 00Z at T+240: More of an Atlantic influence with the trough looking to sink SE and join with the trough over Europe. Further into FI it's a see-saw between the troughs to the NW and SE and the HP to the SW and NE. The latter wins out at the very end of FI on this run. The 00Z GEFS at T+240: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=240 As we've seen, the "struggle" between the competing troughs and ridges continues but on this evidence the ridges are coming out on top with a majority of members looking to maintain HP close to or over the British Isles. Moving on toward the second May Bank Holiday and the signal for settled weather is very strong from the 00z. Whether the HP is in the right position or oriented to draw up the warmest air isn't clear but a majority of the members look warm to hot. In summary, May is often a curious month with unusual synoptic patterns and sharp contrasts in temperature and weather. With the Atlantic often at its weakest, the influence of the Scandinavian HP and European trough are often felt more strongly now than at other times. Northern blocking is for the second day running a strong part of the ECM scenario while GEM is more anticyclonic and positive and GFS messy and uncertain. In truth, little change from yesterday. Moving toward the last third of May, the possibility of unsettled conditions affecting the south east in particular from Europe remains but the signal for a dry and settled Bank Holiday has grown this morning and it may be that after the stampede for the sunshine last Monday we may see a repeat performance but it's far too early to be certain.
    5 points
  5. Good morning all well the bbc are quite bullish on a return to warmer climes late next week, in this forum you feel the battle between members and what they are seeing in the models is rumbling on some showing warmth some showing cool etc. To put some perspective on the month of May it is by in large a changable month historically that dividing line of late spring and early summer, so anything can happen but for what it's worth I am quite optimistic for this coming summer the trends for a more regular visit of the Azores high and the odd plume maybe. LO
    5 points
  6. Well I've got to raise an eyebrow at this from the ICON 18z which has the Azores Scandi highs connect as early as this Sunday! T72: Here at T111, could the good times be coming quicker? It's certainly the trend across model output today:
    4 points
  7. No, not really, but it isn't one run, I was commenting on the very low uncertainty on the ensemble of 21 runs, which does look to me unusually small vis-a-vis the UK, and I did note the possible bias of the whole lot. Usually the GEFS ensembles at this range are an averaged mess, the fact that they are not on this run I thought as indicative of a signal, that's all. A suggestion, no more, I was saying what the GEFS showed, and then suggesting what I think the 12z suite showed as a whole.
    4 points
  8. For the last couple of days, the output has had the UK stranded for some days in a col, a no mans land between the Azores high and Scandi high, but I think the 12z GEFS mean is suggesting the Azores high is winning, leading to a link up, this's not inconsistent with the 12z op runs. GEFS mean at T192 and T252 Edit: and this at T348, remember this is a mean chart, a massive signal for a summery end to May:
    4 points
  9. Sorry for the double post but there's no edit function I saw this frosty plant while walking Clyde this morning, perfectly normal for the time of year with low single digit minima:
    4 points
  10. That little low around day 5/6 is weakening every it seems. High pressure to our SW flexing its sizeable muscles
    3 points
  11. Are you seriously beleiving a chart at the end of the run? Surely the experience of us all is that 240h is as far as any reasonable hope of it being close is about all we can expect. That only if all the upper air anomaly charts supports the synoptic output be that ECMWF, GFS or any other. If there is little agreement then it is best to wait. Just my view.
    3 points
  12. If anything, the GEFS 12z mean looks even better than earlier today..a very nice end to spring if this is anywhere near right..a very happy ending!?
    3 points
  13. I'll do a quick summary of what the ensembles are showing to see if I can find any trends and to add onto my post last night on working out where we are headed over the next couple of weeks. So looking at the GEFS ensembles for the six o clock run around 8 of them develop northern blocking. But only a few do to the same degree as the ECM with some weaker blocking, This means that the influence from the Azores high is stronger than the blocking. About 40% have strongish blocking around greenland Vs 60% that have weaker or very little blocking. Looks like the odds are stacked more towards weak blocking and more HP influence although this may change from run to run. The midnight run has similar odds to the 6z run with around 4 or 5 members developing strong blocking. It would seem although the ECM has some support from the GFS ensembles it does seem to be a bit of an outlier. Although it may be supported by the ECM suite but I haven't seen them so I can't judge them. Looking at the sea level pressure on the ensembles in a graph shows the uncertainty, however the control run keeps the pressure above 1015hpa into later next week after a more unsettled spell throughout the weekend and early next week. Through the mid term it doesn't look too bad with not many precipitation spikes. Long term the prospects look promising with most of the members agreeing on height rises towards the end of the month as has been suggested throughout the week.
    3 points
  14. Longer term the GEFS 00z mean looks very encouraging for settled and warmer weather with high pressure taking control..fingers crossed!..it was showing this yesterday too so hopefully it's a trend.?
    3 points
  15. Lets be honest though, Trump has no method as such, just his biases and impulses. At no point has he displayed any hint of planning, knowledge or understanding of of any major issue. Perhaps things work out for him every now and then, but it's certainly not down to him working hard to understand major issues and deploying a finely crafted plan!
    3 points
  16. Wednesday evening = Thursday morning = I got lucky with my day off this week as my only issue will be making sure I don't get burnt.
    3 points
  17. Starting today in Burlington with target of Eastern Wyoming for some upslope storms which will hopefully become Supercells. Regards Paul
    2 points
  18. 12z UKMO has high pressure building into early next week t144 moving north of Scotland t168 later will show us where it might go
    2 points
  19. By going into his 'bull in a china shop routine' in one foul swoop Trump has undermined support for the reformers in the complex Iranian political system and handed more ammunition to the hard liners on a plate. Iran is not N. Korea and this will not end well.
    2 points
  20. Are they magic beans, is Jack nearby. ?
    2 points
  21. Having a quick look at the models and would have to say that it does all look a bit messy at the moment. Some kind of blocking High Pressure to the North does look a possibility within the next few days or so, and the weather probably being pretty mixed overall. Though chances of some drier, warmer periods, especially between Lows and where ridging from the Azores and/or from any blocking to the North/North-East tries to influence the U.K.
    2 points
  22. $77 a barrel for brent, in part fueled by Trump saying the US is pulling out of the Iran deal. My bet is that Trump's main reason for backing out is to support the oil price to aid US producers, namely shale, who still just can't compete, even at the $70 a barrel WTI is hitting now. In that sense, the US is trying to play 'Saudi America', but only though cartel type behaviour. It doesn't have much of its own production to restrict (and so push up prices), but it can try to restrict supplies from other countries such as Iran. Ties in with the tariffs etc. #Americafirst
    2 points
  23. The GEFS 3-8 anomaly this morning gives a pretty good overview of the above. The key players, the Hudson Bay vortex/lobe, the Scandinavian block ridging north west, low pressure over Europe and the Atlantic trying to ridge north east. Thus the westerly upper flow diverging west of the UK leaving the latter virtually in a col.
    2 points
  24. I'm not entirely sure that the Times of Israel can be trusted as a neutral source.
    2 points
  25. I've ordered you more rain. It will be arriving soon.
    1 point
  26. Northern Blocking... oh dear. The main thread will be going into meltdown*... little talk of record breaking temps, for a while! *wont be the heat causing the melt ?
    1 point
  27. It's an error since the forum update last week if you just post the link images show but are not clickable if you save them to PC/Phone and upload they become clickable
    1 point
  28. Thanks for your comments. Potential for some frost but we will see. Growing a pile of different tomatoes. Cherry, Crimson Crush (good for resisting blight), Ferline, Moneymaker, plum and various others. Growing both in the greenhouse in pots and majority outside in the ground. I will put some fleece round them outside As far as your earlier posting showing your tomatoes in your greenhouse might I suggest you stand the pots in large trays filled with compost/soil. The bigger the plants get the greater the problem with watering and feeding them. Only takes one occasion of them wilting and you end up with blossom end rot. Standing in trays helps with watering and feeding. I use those polystyrene trays that whole salmon are delivered to the fish monger. Ask nicely and they will probably let you have them for nothing. Just a thought.
    1 point
  29. MD Issued - Bang on it! Bring it on for some Supercell Structures
    1 point
  30. Depends where you are in Canada and where you are in the UK...Rural UK is much better than Rural Canada..most major Canadian cities i would say are better than there UK equivalents ie they are less crowded easier to get around and generally lower % of scumbags...just
    1 point
  31. 1995 was a very good summer but started poorly; temperatures were below average every day until 16th June. Jun: 20.7c/10.8c, 11.1mm, 187.7 hrs Jul: 26.3c/15.2c, 20.3mm, 247.1 hrs Aug: 27.0c/15.6c, 0.3mm, 295.3 hrs August was the hottest, driest and sunniest on record here (though had 0.3mm of dew accumulation, no rain fell the entire month).
    1 point
  32. Yes, GEFS is certainly saying so, here's the end of the run, both the mean and spread: The uncertainty on this run set being so low over the UK at T384 is very interesting, of course the whole set could be biased, but I think we've seen a big shift today in the model output as a whole towards fine weather taking hold from about a week Saturday.
    1 point
  33. I agree mike, the GEFS 00z mean in particular also showed high pressure eventually winning and you're right about the 12z mean later next week which shows the azores high ridging in..hopefully this trend will continue to firm up and following the changeable period with shallow slow moving troughs and ridges... high pressure will begin to dominate through late May into June!?
    1 point
  34. I will plant them and see what happens lol
    1 point
  35. Sunshine and showers, some very heavy. Cool breeze but pleasant when sun out.
    1 point
  36. Brent trading at $77 a barrel now; 2.7x what it was early 2016. Bad news I presume; at least in Scotland, where everything is bad news. The below is presumably also bad news, because, well, maybe it will cause a labour shortage in other sectors or something. Can't be good news anyway*. Not in Scotland, the land of drunken racist coke addicts that burn babies in cardboard boxes. ---- *
    1 point
  37. Well looks like folk can put away their bbqs and flip flops and their 'How to be Australian' guide for the foreseeable.
    1 point
  38. Mixed fortunes this week. Much cooler especially in the wind. There will be sunshine but showers and bands of rain to watch out for. Yes, you will need your coat. Read the full update here
    1 point
  39. This morning's 0600 geostationary (courtesy DSRS) illustrates the current state of play well. Front still around in the south east and showers elsewhere, particularly western Scotland.
    1 point
  40. Morning ALL, a wall to wall blue sky after the overnight rainfall. An overnight low of 6.2C is already warming slowly now 8.3C..
    1 point
  41. was woken up by the smell of burning, my neighbours are having a bbq It's cooler tonight, will they be finished by 2.30am when the rain is forecast to arrive?
    1 point
  42. Evening All Well spring has finally sprung here in Pembroke West Wales, as far as the garden birds are that is... lol... I have a hedgehog in the garden, a pair of thrushes (one of whom I find most mornings rooting amongst the pots in the greenhouse - the greenhouse is old and has a rusted out hole near the bottom that it must wander into it through) the blackbirds don't even bother flying away when I'm in the garden now they just 'scuttle' to the side until I'm past them. The Dunnock babies are doing well in next doors box hedge, the robin has babies as he fills his mouth with sunflower hearts and majestically glides into the ivy at the side of the house, which is followed by the sound of much tweeting. I think the chaffinches have set up nest in the hydrangea petiolaris which holds up the old shed next the garage and now has the most wonderful carpet of flowers about to bloom 2ft high on its roof. A wren has decided that an old ivy covered fence post at the bottom of the garden next to the veg plot is the ideal place to build a nest as he or she entertained us on Sunday by calling for a mate!? as he/she went back and forth lining the nest with moss. Two families of sparrows have taken residence (as per last year) in the hawthorn hedge again at the bottom of the veg garden. I could go on and on about the garden birds they are fascinating at this time of year!!! As for the veg well I finally have most of the onions in the ground, pic one shows bed one now filled with onions, bed 2 has mange tout, swede and celeriac so far. Bed 3 has now been finished and filled up with yet more onions and one of the net tunnels is up and planted with spring cabbage, Kohlrabi, 60 day broccoli and some purple cauli which won't be ready until autumn . Pic 2 is the first of my Collective Farm Woman melons, planted into their final pot. These are 35lit pots so 3 will be fine and I have cut the bottom off of the 1lit pots they were in and just sat them on top of the compost as melons don't like getting their stems wet. These melons are meant for a short growing season so I stand a chance of growing at least a couple of 'tennis ball plus' size melons to eat. Pic 3 is the tomatoes in their final pots again 2 to a 35lit pot will be fine and I have 5 different varieties. These were all in 1 lit pots and about to show flowers when I planted them so I've planted them deep to encourage extra roots on the buried stems. In the middle is a couple of courgettes threatening to throw flowers as well. Pic 4 is a row of meteor peas that have finally made it into the ground. In our garden when you clear a space you fill it with veg for that year... lol... Behiind them will go a row of runner beans which have yet to germinate. Pic 5 is my mini sweet peppers which have now made it into 1 lit pots. Last year I grew Yellow monster and Orange bell but they were such large peppers that it took until nearly the end of August (because we had such a wet cold July, Aug here) to ripen, so this I've decided to try for smaller red sweet which I can hopefully start to harvest in July, lets see, that's the plan anyway. I've also planted some left over onions sets in another part of the garden, some fennel which I expect may bolt but we'll see. I've got lettuces, radish and rocket which we are now harvesting, the spring onions are a little behind at the moment. Hope everyone else is doing ok?
    1 point
  43. Trump is a chronic liar, which is necessary when you understand next to nothing about being president but still have to make up a few soundbites for your supporters to swallow and Russian bots to spread. He's now put the US in a position where either Iran gets nukes and begins a Middle Eastern arms race, or war is necessary to prevent Iran from gaining nukes. Art of the deal, a true master at work /s
    1 point
  44. On average, Trump tells 6.5 lies per day. Yesterday's announcement, was a lie almost from start to finish. How exactly you help prevent Iran from getting nuclear weapons by giving them an excuse to restasrt their programme is beyond me. Trump and Netanyahu? The term "unholy alliance" was surely invented for them.
    1 point
  45. The warm days can stay, but the nights can absolutely do one.?
    1 point
  46. Looking forward to cooler times
    1 point
  47. May 1833 has been a month that has fascinated me because of its remarkable CET value with a CET of 15.1, way ahead of any other May in the last 360 years. We experienced the equivalent of this with December 2015. The readings from were recorded by Orlando Whistlecraft (1810-93) who was a meteorologist and and an almanac compiler. The readings were recorded from Thwaite in Suffolk. I converted the readings into Celsius from Fahrenheit May 1833 (first number is the minimum, the second number is the maximum) 5.0, 13.9 9.4, 15.0 10.6, 20.6 12.8, 26.7 12.2, 21.7 6.7, 20.6 7.2, 20.6 8.9, 23.4 8.9, 24.4 9.4, 18.9 10.6, 19.4 8.9, 23.9 12.2, 23.9 10.0, 25.0 12.8, 27.8 15.0, 28.9 14.4, 29.7 14.4, 22.2 8.9, 15.6 10.6, 20.6 11.1, 23.9 8.3, 23.9 9.4, 23.9 8.9, 24.4 8.9, 26.7 10.0, 14.4 8.3, 19.4 8.3, 22.8 8.9, 18.9 3.9, 18.9 3.9, 22.2 22 days above 20C ---------- Coldest Spring on record is 1837 with a CET of 5.6 March: 2.3 April: 4.7 May: 9.9 Here are the readings that were recorded from Thwaite for this remarkable season. First number is the minimum, second number is the maximum March -2.2, 4.4 -0.6, 4.4 -0.6, 6.1 2.8, 5.6 0.0, 8.3 1.7, 5.0 0.0, 8.3 0.0, 8.9 3.9, 10.6 2.8, 9.4 0.0, 8.3 0.6, 7.8 0.0, 5.0 0.0, 6.7 1.7, 3.9 2.2, 4.4 1.7, 6.1 1.1, 5.6 -2.2, 5.0 -3.9, 3.3 -5.6, 2.2 -3.3, 3.3 -7.2, 4.4 -5.6, 3.3 -2.2, 5.6 0.6, 6.7 -8.6, 3.9 -0.6, 6.1 1.7, 9.4 -1,7, 7.2 -2.8, 8.3. April -1.1, 8.3 -2.2, 8.9 2.2, 7.8 -0.6, 7.8 0.6, 6.1 -0.6, 7.2 -1.7, 5.6 0.6, 6.1 -1.1, 3.9 -2.2, 5.0 -2.3, 7.8 -2.8, 5.6 0.6, 6.7 1.1, 10.6 -0.6, 10.6 0.6, 6.7 1.1, 5.6 3.3, 8.9 4.4, 10.6 2.2, 13.9 0.6, 11.7 3.3, 11.7 2.2, 7.8 5.0, 14.4 2.2, 15.0 7.2, 15.6 4.4, 14.4 4.4, 16.1 4.4, 13.9 8.3, 14.4 May 7.8, 16.1 6.7, 17.8 6.7, 18.9 5.0, 13.9 5.0, 14.4 3.9, 12.8 1.1, 15.0 6.7, 11.1 1.1, 8.3 1.1, 9.4 1.7, 12.2 5.0, 11.1 3.3, 16.7 4.4, 15.0 6.7, 13.9 6.1, 13.3 4.4, 20.6 6.1, 11.1 4.4, 12.8 5.0, 9.4 3.3, 12.2 3.9, 9.4 5.6, 12.8 5.0, 18.3 7.2, 18.3 6.7, 20.0 5.6, 20.6 7.2, 18.9 6.7, 21.7 1.0, 18.9 7.8, 19.4 Some interesting readings, that mid March to mid April was exceptionally cold for the time of the year.
    1 point
  48. Oh no, don't bow down to my experience that's only useful when talking about statistics, trends and historical events. Am in no way a weather expert when it comes to complex, unfolding events like this! Well done on your very early predictions! The BoM at this stage might be leaning conservative when it comes to temperatures and snow levels. We shall see what unfolds. Yes hold on in NZ as this thing explodes over the Tasman on the weekend.
    1 point
  49. Spring sunshine filtering through the tress over the Stream in Tehidy Country Park this morning. The park used to part of the estate of The Basset family Once Cornish gentry and mineral lords.
    1 point
  50. 8.0 to the 1st 1.4 below the 61 to 90 average 2.6 below the 81 to 10 average ______________________________________
    1 point
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