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Showing content with the highest reputation on 09/05/18 in all areas

  1. An encouraging trend next week from tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean which indicates the jet stream being pushed to the nw / n and the azores high ridging in bringing increasingly fine and pleasantly warm conditions at least across the southern half of the uk.
    5 points
  2. Afternoon all :) Unfortunately, the daily update running slightly behind schedule but no matter. A cooler but still very pleasant day here in London Town but a sense perhaps of a change back to something more typical for mid May than the current July-like conditions. On to the models and the medium term analysis to Saturday May 19th: ECM 00Z at T+240: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2018050900/ECM1-240.GIF?09-12 On the face of it, not too bad with a ridge of HP covering most of the British Isles. ECM has the weekend LP disrupt and fill over Ireland but the key development is the return of strong northern blocking as a large 1045MB HP sets up over eastern Greenland. The jet is moving back south in the face of this and Atlantic LP systems are going to be moving through the British Isles which means more rain and wind for most. GEM 00Z at the same time: http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2018050900/gem-0-240.png?00 GEM was the most anticyclonic of the models yesterday but today has come more into line with ECM. After the weekend LP disrupts and fills a new LP develops over Scotland briefly but that too fills in the face of rising pressure from the north and east. As the ridge builds in from the east, the Atlantic LP stalls in situ so a warm and largely settled outlook for most with only the far west of Ireland seeing drizzle. GFS 00Z OP at the same time: http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/2018050900/gfs-0-240.png?0 A very soggy and unpleasant chart especially for the south with rain, possibly heavy at times, for southern parts. It's quite a messy evolution this morning from the American model and not really in sync with ECM/GEM. After the weekend's LP fills, there's an attempt to raise pressure from the SW but by Tuesday next week a new LP is developing to the NW and squeezing out the heights. Meanwhile, pressure is rising strongly to the far NE and all that does is push the complex trough down across the British isles by the end of the week. Further into FI and the British Isles essentially is in the col between two competing pressure regimes. To the west, we have the traditional LP to the north and HP to the south but to the East we see HP over Scandinavia and LP over Europe so you'd think the Atlantic trough could drop SE through the British Isles or the HP could ridge NE but in essence neither happens. GFS 06Z OP at T+234: http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2018050906/gfs-0-234.png?6 Variation on a theme albeit with the small LP about 700 miles further north. Further in to FI and it's a pattern we often see at this time of year as thundery LP heads north from Africa and Iberia toward southern Britain forcing the Azores ridge NE over northern Britain and we end with a warm and dry E'ly albeit with a hint of thunder for the Channel Islands. GEFS 06Z at T+240: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=240 The spread to the NW tells the story between those members who favour a continued Atlantic dominance of our weather and those who look at northern blocking and a more continental influence. The OP went with the latter but the Mean plays the col card which isn't unsupported either. Further on and it's the same old story of the strong signal for northern blocking so we'll see. In conclusion, the pattern through to the weekend and beyond looks set. GFS has quite a messy evolution which doesn't end well for the south while both GEM and especially ECM bring in strong northern blocking which pushes the jet back south. It's far from a washout but with LP systems tending to move across the British Isles rather than to the north we would get quite unsettled and wet spells. There are also hints of low heights from the south coming north which isn't unknown at this time of year and can bring thundery downpours but that's looking more toward the last third of the month and wouldn't be unusual.
    4 points
  3. Looking longer term there is some good news this evening from the GEFS 12z mean with the jet further northwest / north and high pressure building in which is what happened with the Gfs 6z operational this morning..so potentially late may could be settled and warm.
    3 points
  4. Pretty strong signal on the GEFS 12z mean for a UK high at the end of the run, normally these charts at 16 days are an averaged out mess, maybe it's on to something?
    3 points
  5. Late May will be lovely according to the Gfs 6z..
    3 points
  6. The very warm/hot and largely sunny spell many of us had up to yesterday is, to me, so much better than a similar one well into summer. Why? Because at this time of year we have the lovely fresh green grass and the trees all bursting into leaf and many into flower with crisp clear skies. By mid summer the green is looking rather tired, in most years, and that freshness has long since gone. Don' get me wrong summer heat if it ends after a few days with cracking storms does have its attraction. Just my view.
    3 points
  7. The models are all starting to firm up on the idea of a big Greenland/arctic high forming in around a weeks time... http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2018050900/ECH1-192.GIF?09-12 Never a great thing to see at this time of the year.
    3 points
  8. After a relatively cool night today will dawn quite dry and bright in most places but frontal rain will ingress N. Ireland and the Western Isles by 0900 and will slowly cross the country during the day and evening. Thus most of the eastern half will remain dry and pleasant with temps still above average before the rain arrives and clears unto the North Sea by Thursday morning. So once rain has cleared Thursday wil generally be a dry and sunny day with showers, more frequent in the north, as a transient ridge becomes briefly influential, witrh temps back to around average. But by Friday the battle between the eastbound energy exiting North America and the block gets underway in earnest with the block to the east unrelenting and the Bermuda high amplifying in the Atlantic deconstructing the trough. Thus the surface low south of Iceland is almost stationary as the associated front struggles to push east across Ireland in the gently southerly flow over the UK. So again the eastern half of the UK remaining dry and generally temps still around average. The front eventually clears into the North Sea early Saturday and as the low south of Iceland slides SSE and loses it's identity all is pretty quiet over the UK with sunshine and showers, probably more frequent in the west with the odd trough popping up, with temps still around average. And thus by 00 Monday we are left with this intriguing position vis the battle between the energy and the block
    3 points
  9. My answer to the topic question is no, it will be a good summer more similar to the good ones of the 1990s than the poor ones of any decade. I don't buy into the theory that you can "waste" good summer synoptics early. The correlation is more or less random between unusual spring warmth and summer outcomes. When you look at years that had unusual warmth before mid-May, you find quite a mix of poor summers, average summers and good summers. In this particular case, I think the indications are positive for a good summer with temperatures about a degree above even the warmed up recent normals. Will post a summer outlook soon in the long-range forecast thread, but I have done the work on it and just fine tuning the results.
    3 points
  10. This evening's Ecm 12z shows a slow moving pattern which is neither settled or unsettled, it's somewhere inbetween which makes it changeable with some rain, some showers but also some dry and sunny periods and after tomorrow's nice ridge of high pressure a more breezy few days on fri into the weekend but then at least the winds become generally light next week so in the dry and bright / sunny spells it would feel pleasantly warm..could be worse!
    2 points
  11. Looking. Good at the moment for another cracking bank holiday end of May, could it be possible ? We just might be in with a shout all be it a small shout at this range.
    2 points
  12. A pretty dramatic difference in the two D5 clusters The eventual result isn't too dissimilar though - the main Atlantic trough stays west and ridging from the Azores has a fair amount of success in punching towards Scandi, eventually getting here by D10 However the northern blocking cluster eventually sends the trough through to the UK as we enter the final third of May. The main cluster remains dominated by ridging from the SW through the UK.
    2 points
  13. Your not the only one with that view. I love this time of year with the rapid growth and buds unfurling. It makes a warm spell all the more special. Whilst a late august hot spell is welcomed by me it only takes some ploughing and muck spreading nearby to remind me that summer is nearing its end.
    2 points
  14. 12.8 to the 8th 2.7 above the 61 to 90 average 2.1 above the 81 to 10 average ______________________________________ Current high this month 12.8 to the 8th
    2 points
  15. Hi everyone, I hope everyone is doing well. I haven’t been about for a few weeks because of one thing and another. Missed you all mum is noe hopefully on the mend. Mom loving this weather, I love the heat and seeing the sun everyday it always makes me feel more happy within myself. The kids have been out in the paddling pool and we have had a few bbq’s. Today is slightly cooler boooooooooooooo but still nice. Does anybody know how long this weather streak will last?????
    2 points
  16. The ecm has the filling low sliding down west of Ireland Saturday with slack low low pressure over the UK with the front slow to clear East Anglia on Saturday. Quite interesting how this morning's runs are migrating the Scandinavian ridge.
    2 points
  17. That's interesting as it was CS sensors giving higher totals that I first became aware of (I believe from posts on this forum many years ago). Maybe the UK just has a particular climate with much more intermittent summer sunshine than many places. The logical conclusion to those figures, is the current Heathrow data is un-corrected (as they state), and they had previously published 'corrected' figures. The paper does state that the average 170w/m2 threshold for the CS recorder compared to 120w/m2 for KZ would in theory mean the KZ gives slightly higher totals, but as radiation changes rapidly at sunrise and sunset this would only be a few minutes, and this is outweighed by the above. I suppose you might get a scenario with weak sunshine through high cloud where a KZ sensor registers sunshine but a CS recorder doesn't. I'm not sure if/how different KZ sensor versions vary if other studies have looked at different versions though? Then there's variability with CS thresholds apparently ranging from 106 to 285w/m2, and human interpretation of the burn marks on the cards. There could have been more 'sunny start then shower or cumulus infill' days due to synoptic in recent summers (not sure how easy it is to get the data to assess that), and maybe it would have also kept the coats of the SE clearer.. (but to that extent over a 10 year mean?!) However, if the deficit at Heathrow is genuine, presumably some nearby climate stations around the Home Counties/London area would show a similar decline, if any have kept using a CS srecorder to date. That's the only thing that would stop me thinking there's something fishy really. But without that, I think that Met Office associated study of 16 stations having simultaneous recording using both sensors is pretty strong evidence supporting what's already quite apparent.
    2 points
  18. Beautiful sunset this evening following the drop in temperature (car thermometer) from 27 degrees at 4pm to 19 degrees at 8pm. We had the bubbly grey stuff come over 4-5.30 then back to mostly clear skies. View below from Chessington College.
    2 points
  19. Whats left of the front crossing overhead now.. Quite cool to see
    2 points
  20. Here's the forecast based on the 06z GFS Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg) 12.9C to the 8th... +2.2 (15.5: +4.6) 12.7C to the 9th... +2.0 (11.6: +0.9) 12.4C to the 10th.. +1.7 (9.7: -1.1) 12.2C to the 11th.. +1.5 (9.8: -1.3) 12.1C to the 12th.. +1.4 (11.5: +0.2) 12.0C to the 13th.. +1.2 (10.7: -0.9) 11.9C to the 14th.. +1.0 (10.9: -0.8) 11.7C to the 15th.. +0.8 (8.7: -3.0) 11.7C to the 16th.. +0.7 (11.2: -0.3) 11.6C to the 17th.. +0.6 (10.5: -0.8) Yesterday, at 17.1C, managed a provisional daily record, beating the 2008 record of 16.8C. After today, it looks like the CET will undergo a gradual fall, but still remains above both the 81-10 and 61-90 averages going into the second half of the month.
    2 points
  21. 12.5 to the 7th 2.5 above the 61 to 90 average 1.8 above the 81 to 10 average ______________________________________ Current high this month 12.5 to the 7th
    2 points
  22. Quite impressive WAA through Scandinavia into the arctic
    1 point
  23. Nice morning here, still feeling warm but quite a lot of cloud has bubbled up. Light winds and 17C at the moment.
    1 point
  24. I was with a friend on a delivery in London yesterday. 28C and I was only wearing shorts and trainers - bellissimo. Can't wait for the next hot shot.
    1 point
  25. Of course, though sadly the weather doesn't work on a credit based system! We seem to have been stuck with a lot of northern blocking during recent summers which have led to some fairly dodgy weather. July, August and September were pretty bad last year.
    1 point
  26. South Georgia declared rat-free after centuries of rodent devastation World’s biggest project to kill off invasive species to protect native wildlife is hailed a success https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/may/09/south-georgia-declared-rat-free-centuries-rodent-devastation
    1 point
  27. Very nice geostationary at 0600 UTC this morning (courtesy DSRS) showing the deep depression at 25W and frontal structures approaching the UK
    1 point
  28. Mr Wolf , you raise different questions , lets look at them , the earth is slowing down , I could only find an old NASA report from 2003 ( away from the tabloid rags which are full of rubbish ) , which didn't give many answers as to why , although it is known the earth's rotational speed varies and slows and speeds up from time to time ( 5 year periods ) but I believe it was the Guardian that ran with it , it appears to be a paper by Roger Bilham of the University of Colorado in Boulder and Rebecca Bendick of the University of Montana in Missoula , the conclusion in Sciencemag.org was " Bilham and Bendick have only fuzzy, hard-to-test ideas about what might cause the pattern they found" so until they come up with some evidence , it's just a hypothesis , of course that doesn't mean they are wrong , but the globe is in an increased state of volcanic and seismic activity now , and have been for a while so the nice men at NASA might just be covering their backs in case a declining magnetosphere from an oncoming solar minimum causes more volcanic and seismic activity you said " It was a study from sat images between 2008 to 2015 " it was published in February 2018 actually ,,, Received: 25 April 2017 – Discussion started: 4 May 2017 Revised: 21 November 2017 – Accepted: 27 November 2017 – Published: 13 February 2018 I can only read published papers , you may have a Delorean with a flux capacitor , I don't you also said " since 2014, exceeding the rate of change " let's see what NASA say about 2014 new sea ice maximum , well where do you go from a record maximum , I would suggest down ( so did NASA and they were right ) https://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/antarctic-sea-ice-reaches-new-record-maximum I would point out that none of the scientists I have posted here are " paid deniers " , just scientists trying to find facts , not opinion , not consensus , not belief , but cold hard facts , like science used to be about in the good old days , if Antarctica looses ice due to a storm from anywhere , that's weather , not climate , and I will be watching , with great interest , on how things turn out this year
    1 point
  29. Speaking of seeing the sun.... What confuses me with the BBC (and a lot does) when its a chilly wind. they say if you can stay out of the wind you will feel the effect of the Sun.. Now how can you go out into the sun and avoid the wind at the same time?.. physically impossible
    1 point
  30. It's been continental in a very British fashion - cloudily! March was dull and April scraped 100 hours of sunshine, very much helped by the warm spell. From the 07th to the 13th there was no sun at all!
    1 point
  31. Plenty of promise during next week as things stand. How far north the high goes open to debate but turning warmer again
    1 point
  32. No. I fancy a bit of llama now, gone of them old goats.
    1 point
  33. Spent his cache and ate his cookies..
    1 point
  34. The warm days can stay, but the nights can absolutely do one.
    1 point
  35. Try again! Spring has officially arrived following a few days of sunshine.
    1 point
  36. Antarctic as a whole is melting. You can't use regional variability to claim it isn't melting when overall almost every study and measure suggested it is melting. Even the cryosphere paper you posted agrees: Including modeled rates of snow accumulation and basal melt, the Antarctic ice sheet lost ice at an average rate of 183 ± 94 Gt yr−1 between 2008 and 2015
    1 point
  37. It was a study from sat images between 2008 to 2015? The Russian team was on the ice in the austral summer of 2017 ( with robot subs). With rapidly changing/evolving areas of the planet we must allow for sudden changes both in our understanding but also behaviours of the thing being studied? The recent flip in sea ice cover around Antarctic will have impacts on all the shelfs as we remove the layer damping out swells earlier in the season ? If we recall the collapse of Larsen B was aided by storm swells coming all the way from the Seas off Alaska! If ice cover can be deduced from global average temps and CO2 levels then we should expect, in the final shakedown, West Antarctica to lose all of its ice cover over coming decades. (Of course it would be foolish to think global temps will reduce/CO2 to reduce over the coming years!) With global temps , since 2014, exceeding the rate of change we saw over the last warming spourt through the 80's/90's we will pop through 1.5c above pre industrial by 2030 at the latest ( so much for Paris) and the places fastest warming will be the Arctic and far north plus the coastal fringes of Antarctic plus all the peninsula. For the folk gladly fooled by the paid deniers through the noughties I'm sorry to report the conditions they exploited ( all man made ) are rapidly healing so the impacts that detract from AGW are now fading with the rapid loss of dimming over the Pacific and the Ozone hole over Antarctica. If you miss the Ozone hole , don't fret! The disruption of the Polar night Vortex is placing Ozone into direct sunlight these days so causing holes over our neck of the woods? I think Feb 2017 saw a big hole over the UK? As for dimming? Well this years slowing in global rotation is threatening us with an uptick in both earthquakes and volcanic eruptions........ maybe we'll see a big eruption to dim out the low solar sun? but then the CO2 will still be there when the soot washes out and the sulphates are returned to earth......
    1 point
  38. So lack of ozone depletion is now a bad thing!!!
    1 point
  39. The 1200 UTC geostationary and I can firms that the front is through here with plenty of sunshine and some wispy Ci. And Sidney is out and about weighing up the options
    1 point
  40. The rising sun on the 0600 geostationary (courtesy DSRS) silhouetting the systems to our west
    1 point
  41. Another warm, sunny day with 20C recorded at Glasgow airport. It's been a long wait for Spring to arrive with the first high above 15C recorded on April 15 - the latest for quite a few years. Since then there's been some decent sunny spells - though not always warm- and improving vegetation growth after a long winter. The winter was easily the best I've experienced outside of 09/10 and 10/11- 5 snowfalls of 5cm+ distributed across 4 months and a total depth of 26cm exceeds 2010. It was a kind of old school winter though quite unique with polar westerlies delivering much of the snow until the two beasts from the east in early Spring. It just goes to show that you don't need HLB to have a memorable winter and March isn't too late for impressive Synoptics to deliver significant winter weather. Unlike March 2013 which saw persistent easterlies bring prolonged cold, largely cloudy skies and frequent snow showers with some snow cover, this year we had two short but potent easterlies deliver significant snow. The first being the most notable period of winter weather in 8 years and probably the most impressive snow event I've experienced. The second just a few weeks later wasn't as severe though a depth of 5cm - the latest snow cover outside of 2013 and latest 2inch snowfall - was very impressive for an easterly in the second half of March and so soon after the first beast. The success of the fabled Scandi high so late in the season certainly raises confidence of our chances should we see a similar set up earlier in the season. As expected, after the equinox the chances of snow become increasingly infrequent and restricted to the high ground via northerlies. The final snow of the season in early April came from a promising frontal set-up which could have been conducive for my first April snow cover, alas it was mainly a wet novelty snowfall though Glasgow airport recorded the coldest April maximum since 1981 (after record low maxima in February and March). Hopefully we won't have to wait too long for another decent winter. Now we are in May, I'm looking forward to some decent summer weather over the coming months and with the lingering twilight now upon us hopefully we'll get to see some noctilucent clouds.
    1 point
  42. Another excellent high res. MODIS at 1140 UTC (courtesy DSRS) showing the sea fog on western coasts and also eastern coasts (sea breeze?) and the decaying front still affecting N. Ireland and northern Scotland
    1 point
  43. The chart shows the 10 coldest ever CET months on the left and on the right the coldest months of the last 39 years -hence the gaps. It would be very useful/interesting to also look at 10 year periods, 30 and 60 year periods of CET data and intend to do more charts.
    1 point
  44. Mechanisms Governing the Development of the North Atlantic Warming Hole in the CESM-LE Future Climate Simulations https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0635.1
    1 point
  45. Peak... Just seen this post. Have you still got the data around? To be really meaningful you will need to - 1) show the other winter months back in the earlier periods. 2) Show more data (how about the coldest winters in a 10 year period, instead of having huge gaps)? As it stands it just shows that (as most of us accept) that the Maunder and Dalton periods contained some brutal winters, only matched by 1962 and 1947. MIA
    1 point
  46. 1645 to 1715 was the Maunder minimum , and 1790 to 1830 or 1796 to 1820, corresponding to the period solar cycle 4 to solar cycle 7 or the Dalton minimum
    1 point
  47. not all glaciers in the world are doing badly though , Greenland’s Petermann glacier for example
    1 point
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