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Chilly start to May here too with a slight air frost this morning. Had a great weekend walking around Pitlochry and Blair Atholl. Weather was great aside from a heavy shower in Pitlochry late Saturday afternoon!

00z ECM is fantastic this morning for warmth the good news is it is now just a matter of a few days away from arriving whilst later in the run some cooler air does make it into Scotland & NI England and Wales holds on to the warm air Enjoy

Fabulous ECM this evening warm to very warm, well into next week a bit fresher for a time later next week but high pressure dominates

The runs are not too bad at all. May shaping up very nicely. With such a weak jet stream, hopefully we can continue to see the Azores and Euro Highs dominating with only brief Atlantic incursions into the North West.

Today will be the last generally wet, cool and windy day for a while. The front and rain belt are currently running down the spine of the country as they move slowly east, clearing East Anglia and the south east by late afternoon. Sunshine and showers in the wake of the front, initially in N. Ireland and Scotland but spreading elsewhere as the day progresses. Temps no great shakes. The showers will die out later leaving a mainly clear night with ground frost likely in places. The overall NH pattern approaching the weekend was covered yesterday and this has not altered so the 500mb geopotential height and anomaly chart should suffice this morning. Thus by Thursday with the Azores high pressure ridging north east and low pressure to the north west a NW/SE split is initiated with a fresh WSW wind and patchy rain affecting the former whilst the south and east are drier and with temps beginning to rise. Not much change from this scenario overnight and into Friday with patchy rain in the north west and England and Wales remaining dry and warm but just to note that in mid Atlantic there is an active front with waves forming on it Over Saturday the aforementioned front edges slightly closer thus the patchy rain/drizzle may push slightly further south but the bulk of England and Wales will remain dry, sunny, and warm Overnight Saturday and through Sunday yet another wave forms on the front and nips north east so a continuation ofa fresh SW wind and patchy rain in the north west whilst further south, with no wind, temps are progressing well above average. But changes are afoot and as the front eventually clears high pressure again starts ridging north east and by 00 Monday is generally established over all of the UK but not to forget that there is still a fair amount of energy exiting north west North America.

Revenge of the Arctic on the Gfs 6z in low res with a risk of snow, especially for the north!

GEM is a GEM of a run for warmth with just a minor blip later next week

Give it a rest. Amazed how so many of your posts get through. They are nothing to the discussion.

We can really see the differences in how the models handle the same setup as the weekend progresses. First off, ECM brings a greater amount of warm air across from the southwest during Fr-Sat than GFS. It will be educational to see whether this is a case of ECM overcooking or GFS underestimating. Then, there's the advance of the Atlantic trough during Mon-Tue GFS next week, which sees GFS being persistently more progressive than ECM, UKMO and GEM. In fact, this looks to be the case for not just that trough but also another smaller low well out west in the N. Atlantic, the further east position of which 'flattens' the next ridge attempting to nose across from the southwest and allows the trough to our NW to gain the upper hand across the UK. Looking at the ECM and GEM runs, we can see that this second ridge is a fairly weak affair, so it is vulnerable to such flattening if the low out west moves as fast as GFS shows - but this evening, the majority vote has remained for a slower low that allows the ridge to nose across effectively and trap the warm air across the UK beyond Monday. It could still become unstable enough for a few showers or even thunderstorms to develop by the afternoon, but in very light winds temperatures would do very well away from any of that activity.

It's not just a dry blip, it's another spell of exceptional summery weather around 4 weeks early, even better if the Ecm 12z is anything close!

You would have to admit that is one penetrating snake-like creature from the Azores on the pub run at T78: Harbinger of that rare thing, fantastic weather for the early May bank holiday, what's not to like! UK high at T126:

I think that the current model predictions of warm weather interspersed by less settled spells will continue through May as I have set out in previous posts, but I am optimistic that come summer proper the southward forcing on the jet stream will diminish, and we will see something like this develop by high summer:

So I think after the 12s it boils down to what kind of wobble or breakdown occurs next week after the super bank holiday weekend. Here's the scores on the doors: ICON - considerable wobble, and run terminates before we see what happens next. GEM - second high follows first with continuity. Great run. UKMO - run finishes too early but looks good for resurgence of high pressure. GFS - low pressure invades by T216, weird thereafter but it's well FI by then. ECM - second high follows first with continuity. Good run. CMA - second high follows first with continuity. Good run. On the basis of that super ensemble, I'm going 70% on mainly warm and sunny weather for at least the south of the country for the next 10 days. Edit, at last ECM at T216, superb!

And what a finish!..some absolutely fabulous weather on the way which would go on and on if the Ecm 12z is on the money!

Just seen the GFS chart for 12th May. Due a visit to Blighty on that date, may have to put on hold again. The thought of enduring those Atlantic winds with a distinct chill factor scare the hell out of me. I am just now a warm continental softie . 29c in the valley this afternoon with thunder about. C

Looking at UKMO 12z I can't see a quick breakdown next week

Sad that there is an element with a few in here for personal comments and preferences to be given more words than actually trying to review what any particular model is showing.

EC clusters show the low heights trying to get to the UK. But with the tendency for heights to hold some sway to our east, I'd say it gives a chance of the first real plume of the year May 11th-13th, as southerlies could get trapped between the Atlantic advancing and heights holding up over the continent. Wouldn't be exceptionally hot though as Iberia hasn't properly warmed up yet.

Yes, there is. The forecast for here currently just shows temps in the high teens, perhaps low 20s - I assume it's similar or even lower for Skelmersdale. You can't honestly complain about that kind of weather surely? Nobody in the world thinks 20C is too hot. And I consider mid 20s 24-26 - nothing wrong with that. A sunny, 25C day is to be cherished. Not sure why you'd want cloudy, wet, windy weather over that.

Although it has to be said “Would you find a leak in your boots on a dry day?””

The Gem 00z shows temps across england and wales widely into the low 20's celsius this weekend and even warmer through the first half of next week, as high as 27 / 28 / 29c 81-84f further s / se..stunning summery charts considering the start of the meteorological summer is still 4 weeks away!?

ECM leading the way yet again this morning, pulling the high east and dragging some very warm air up. Mid twenties once again. Ukmo is still reluctant to do so. Who will be right!

mid 20's great, would like it every day this summer. 30 though not pleasant, and unnecessary

Am no expert, so I have been told. But the chars look amazing if you like early summer weather. I really hope it comes to fruition and its not a big let down..

david drummond https://livestormchasing.com/map

May can deliver very summery sustained conditions - nothing too unusual in this, I said a couple of days ago, in some years it has brought the warmest weather of the year here..its just recent years have seen only limited sustained warmth and settled weather. Alas, models all showing high pressure influencing things as we move through the latter part of the week, a very good bank holiday away from the NW looks on the cards, with lots of dry sunny warm weather - could be some stubborn cloud at times though, and temps though very good for early May but not exceptional territory compared to the last warm spell when we imported long drawn southerlies. Thereafter a bit of a stand off between ECM and GFS - a typical situation with ECM holding onto strong height development, as it often does and GFS keen to see the atlantic moving in. I'm inclined to go more with ECM given we have a very weak jetstream at the moment - again par for the course in May, and next week in the main will deliver more dry sunny warm weather, mid 20s in the south. However, one thing we have seen this year is for a propensity for any settled ridge development to be kicked aside quite easily by the atlantic - the last warm spell lasted about 5 days, and there will be forcing on the high once again next week, its weakest link could easily be broken again quite quickly - as suggested by GFS.

Hardly a dry blip is it? Considering most parts of the UK wont see any rainfall in the next 7 days!!

The ECM ensembles suggest to me a much higher probability of continuing the mainly fine warm weather, here mean and spread at T240: Much bolder prediction for heights to our east and lower uncertainty to our NW (compared to my post from yesterday's 12z). Not to mention the uncertainty low where the high pressure is. All good, as we head to a great May spell of weather.

GFS 12z isn't looking good for second week of May. Looking depressingly cold, wet and windy mid week after the dry blip.

Well at T210, the low wins out on GFS but GEM still has the high influence, this is where the uncertainty is now, the bank holiday weekend is nailed for most areas, but there is the possibility is of a breakdown or not in the following week. T210 charts

Remember this time of year you don't need overly high 850's to get temps into the 20s

2017's total fast approaching!

The ECM relentlessly continues with the warmest and sunniest outlook. It’s maybe looking forward to summery weather too

Edit The last words of the above should of course read, exiting north east North America. Get a grip knocker. Anyway the sun rising on the 0600 geostationary.

Looks pleasant enough in your part of the UK, no heat at all, that’ll be further south.

Interesting article in spaceweather saying sunspots are vanishing quicker than expected "The smoothed, predicted sunspot number for April-May 2018 is about 15," says NOAA. "However, the actual monthly values have been lower." http://www.spaceweather.com/

Rays? They look like Bacon Frazzles ?

ECM ensembles out, here's the mean and spread at T240: The uncertainty looks to be associated with an impending low (or not) from the NW as per GFS earlier, perhaps the two extremes well illustrated by two lesser spotted models, the CMA (not good) and FIM9 (ok next weekend): Interesting weather to look forward to in May, warmth and thunder may well be the buzz words!

Looking good now for a warm up

ECM maybe headed towards a thundery breakdown at T240, not complaining if it does, still think we'll see warm spells interspersed with unsettled spells as we go through May, that could involve some thunderstorms.

Looks like we might actually see our first sunnier than average May since 2011 here!!

Aye ,that's what you end up looking like

Next week it will come ,go forth and bask in its rays ......???? cloudydaze would basque in its rays

Bloody hell, I thought I could feel a prog rock session coming on

I'm here ,though pixelle wishes I wasn't ,lol

Try buying yourself a new Ouija board?

I know this was a few weeks ago but it made me smile. Reminds me of a comment on this very forum by another member who was questioning why some of us are interested in seeing extreme weather by storm chasing. Erm...

The strange spring weather continues . After a lovely warm spell that’s changed and there’s been some fresh snow in the Pyrenees and I had to put the heating back on!

The nagging cold wind has certainly been a feature here so far this spring, exceptionally so yesterday. Hopefully by the weekend into next week we’ll have some actual warmth without the cold wind to ruin it.

Still wearing the winter jacket today. Didn’t want to take the risk of feeling cold.