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Showing content with the highest reputation on 27/04/18 in all areas

  1. So we start next week potentially in the Arctic Circle. ARGEPE, ECM and METO raw data all have marginal snow events Monday morning for the southern half - ECM showing lunchtime temperatures of 1C or 2C in places!!! But by the end of the week, we're back on the Costa Del Sol, with temperatures in the low 20s once again. Every month of the year all in one week!
    13 points
  2. Something similar occurred in 1945. According to TORRO, a high of 26.1C was recorded on the 18th (the record for that date). The end of the month then saw sleet and snow showers, with temperatures widely down to -4C. Full details can be found in the Met Office weather report for the month: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/l/0/apr1945.pdf In terms of the mean CET, four daily records were set in April 1945. The 15th, 16th, and 18th all hold daily record highs, while the 30th holds the daily record low, just 12 days later.
    9 points
  3. A big thunderstorm passing overhead a couple days ago, i think it was Wednesday just before sunset?
    8 points
  4. The last two weeks have had some amazing weather, had two thunderstorms too! One of which gave us some incredible clouds, much better then any I've ever seen in summer here before, looked like something straight out of America!
    8 points
  5. This could be pretty good timing for the bank holiday weekend
    7 points
  6. At this range ARPEGE probably the best for resolving precipitation, here at T68: The snow looks a south of the M4 only event to me!
    7 points
  7. Incredibly cold last day of april on the Gfs 6z with temperatures struggling in the low single digits celsius and even colder on high ground with snow in places, a thoroughly cold, wet and windy day for many parts of england and wales and more chance of the rain turning to sleet or wet snow than the 00z showed!
    7 points
  8. Morning all It doe seem as though some may get a final taste of winter later this weekend and into Monday which looks a particularly cold and unpleasant day for many but it's May (nearly) so in the battle between the warmer and colder air masses which has characterised the past two or three months the warmer side is getting the upper hand but it's been a real spring of contrasts which can be blamed on the weaker influence of the Atlantic. Moving on and looking at where we might be on Bank Holiday Monday, May 7th, and starting as always with the ECM 00Z at T+240: It all ends perfectly well for fans of warm settled conditions but the start of the week won't be pleasant with a couple of unpleasant cool wet days. As the LP moves off and fills, the Azores ridge builds through the south midweek and then transfers to the east setting up as a new HP cell over the southern Baltic leaving the British Isles in a warm ESE'ly wind for the Bank Holiday Monday. GEM 00Z at the same time: A very similar evolution in broad terms to the ECM. The HP ends up over Scandinavia with the ridge aligned SW back across the British Isles and a light NE'ly but still very pleasant. The critical moment is on Tuesday when the LP looks to dive SE across the British Isles but the ridge from the Azores gets there first. GFS 00Z OP at T+240: Something slightly different from GFS. The overall evolution is initially similar but as the HP transfers across the British Isles it declines and the core of heights never develops as a new cell over Scandinavia but is a ridge to a core much further north. In addition, the LP over the Continent is more pronounced and much closer so it's an E'ly flow but with a risk of showers for southern and south eastern parts. Further into FI heights remain to the north with LP to the south so it's variations on a mainly E'ly flow but quite a messy evolution. GFS 00Z Control at T+240: Very similar to yesterday with the Atlantic very much in charge and a fresh W'ly wind over the British Isles. Further into FI and the flow becomes more amplified ending with a developing LP over Europe and an E'ly for southern parts. So, two very contrasting GFS evolutions at T+240 so let's look at the GEFS: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=240 I'd say the emphasis is on an anticyclonic evolution but where the HP sits and how it is oriented is far from clear. I see more support for an OP type set up than the strongly Atlantic evolution favoured by the Control (though that has some support as well). The Mean suggests HP to the SW and that's well advertised. Further into FI we get our usual signal of heights to the NW but no strong trend as we move into the middle of the month apart from the obvious of no warm southerlies or cold northerlies. In conclusion, the evolution for the next week or so looks fairly well defined, After an unpleasant 48 hours or so especially through Monday, the ridge builds back from the SW drying and warming the weather through midweek. From there GEM and ECM build the HP over Scandinavia ushering in a new period of warmth but GFS is less convinced and the threat of showers from Europe remains or the whole pack of cards collapses as the Atlantic returns. The GFS OP this morning intrigues with further strong northern blocking as we move into May (not atypical) so we'll see where that goes after the weekend.
    6 points
  9. Very cool for Sun / Mon with huge precipitation potl rain / sleet /snow & the GFS Op run not well supported for any warm up. Decidedly chilly outlook for Blighty here Could we squeeze one more snow event in the south?
    6 points
  10. The trend, yes. But the graph you post is a little misleading, as the reality on the ground is a continued below average period.
    5 points
  11. ECM looks good for the warm up, and given a big tick from the GEM earlier and a smaller tick from the GFS, I think this warm up for the bank holiday is going to happen. ECM T192 if you look at the 1020 countour depicts a marvellous feline leaping across UK into Scandinavia bringing the warmth: T216: T240 looks a little odd, but I think things are going the right way for a warm up! This thread has a surreal quality to it today with discussion of both snow and summer warmth,weird!
    5 points
  12. ECM still has plenty of marginal snow for many central/southern areas on Monday. No backing down so far.
    4 points
  13. The Gfs 00z shows high pressure building in later next week bringing increasingly fine and pleasantly warm conditions across most of the uk..it currently looks like a very decent BH weekend..especially with the Ecm 00z firmly on-board, indeed, looking even better than last night's 12z!?
    4 points
  14. Hi all, not been on since we last had snaw. Cracking morning just now, lets hope we get a decent summer!
    4 points
  15. Great ECM 00z for the BH weekend with increasing warmth Hope it's right
    4 points
  16. What a wonderful looking set of charts for Monday rain and strong winds-hello spring!
    4 points
  17. 4 points
  18. The only way the south will see snow at this time of year will be if someone with a dirty scalp sits on your roof and scratches their head
    4 points
  19. I would happily settle for what the GEM 12z shows for the BH weekend and beyond..increasingly fine and warm under a strengthening anticyclone.?
    3 points
  20. Why would pro-union media make a big thing out of it? Why would they big up the threat to devo? Why would they try to help the SNP in this way. That makes no sense at all. Especially as devo remains intact for now. I think the difficulty for you in understanding the situation is that you are English. Westminster is your parliament. You will always see things through that prism. Ultimately, Corbyn and May are both English. Like them or not they are yours. For about 30% in Scotland, Westminster is the same. They're British and it's their parliament. Even if it's doing things they don't like it is still theirs. For a majority of unionist MPs this applies too. This is why Welsh Labour so easily came to a deal. For most Welsh MSPs (and Welsh people) Westminster is their parliament too as they're British. This doesn't apply in Scotland. At least 70% either back indy or would happily vote for that if they thought it the best option. This includes the 53% that already back indy in the medium to long terms. They are also the 7/10 that back devo max. They are first and foremost Scottish. They are not forgiving to Westminster in the same way because it is not theirs. This lack of any 'sentimental' attachment means the UK hangs together based on the votes of people who are weakly to not at all British, and don't have any forgiveness when it comes to Westminster as it's not their parliament nor country. Their vote is practical and based on hard, cold economics vs sovereignty. They weighed this up in 2014 and figured the risks of indy vs union were too high vs percieved benefit. With brexit, they now favour independence, albeit it 8% or so want Scexit so wish to wait for brexit to complete before moving to indy. You are English. If your government sinks your ship you go down with it. What else can you do? England can't become independent from itself. The single biggest reason given for Yes in 2014 was sovereignty; that Scotland should make its own decisions. If it appears devo is being reversed, then the UK will crumble. The reason devo works is because of this: Permission is given. There has never been any meaningful clash. If permission is constantly being refused but overruled by the English Tories, and on contentious issues, the union will break. I suspect Labour in Wales will take a hit to Plaid Cymru in time due to their capitulation. Soon they will be forced to capitulate again, and again, and again.... Once the Tories see you weak, they'll turn the thumbscrew. The English Tories will sell out Wales to better their own brexit. Thank god we have an SNP + Green majority to defend Dewar's Devo.
    3 points
  21. How's your memory? 35 degrees can be very harmful to the young the old and those with on going health issues. Back during the cold easterly spell you made the point to people who 'wished' for it to be very cold with lots of snow that this type of weather would cause harm and some would die. You really can't have it both ways, that would be hypocritical don't you think?
    3 points
  22. Rather depends how you define 'building'. To me it still appears that there is too much energy being generated from the vortex east bound to allow any sustainable high pressure so it looks much like a continuation of changeable but tending towards a N/S split as the different airmasses phase. Just my opinion of course.
    3 points
  23. But not in Darlington. And at the same time as London and the south east swelters in the impactful heat, you will no doubt be saying how great/fantastic/wonderful it is.
    3 points
  24. Wings Over Scotland Retweeted Peter Grant MP✔@PeterGrantMP Dear twitter, thank you for suggesting that the three people in the world I most want to follow are David Mundell, Adam Tomkins and Michael Gove. I can now sleep easily knowing you don't know nearly as much about me as the newspapers claim.
    3 points
  25. This is absolutely bonkers. Who's ever heard of snow following after a 29C heatwave?!? But from what I consider the top model on frontal snow.
    3 points
  26. Really not been a bad week so far in the grand scheme of things. It not been what you would call warm, but it's been mainly dry (everything covered in a layer of dust, I blame the farmers) and often sunny. As @Quinachsaid, some good heavy showers today but almost blink and you'll miss it affairs due to bring pushed through quickly by the wind. Trees finally beginning to realise winter is over and show signs of breaking into leaf. Be nice to get some green back into the countryside after months of predominantly brown.
    3 points
  27. Some serious evaporative cooling on the ECM 12z run. It will take such exact positioning of the most intense rainfall relative to the coldest air being entrained to produce snow to low levels, but it's not out of the question. Not that long after, continued hints of a heat build getting underway over NW Europe in the 9-12 day range. Seems like we've got one of the most extreme spring seasons in living memory on our hands!
    3 points
  28. Ec op in broad agreement! Dew points above zero but T2 mid to upper thirties most of the day and with heavy precip there looks to be a decent chance of snowfall on the hills in central southern England! Will change run to run (the 00z ec op had significant accums across Kent and Suffolk) but this run dumps accumulated snowlfall of a foot across the chilterns and Salisbury plain.
    3 points
  29. Evening, just stopped by to check the forecast and I've been accosted by Robomod telling me I'm not an active member anymore. Got to post something in the weather section apparently...... It's April, it's showery I've been busy, making gardens flowery The wind, it's still cold But the weeds, they're getting bold The clouds, they're looking glowery
    3 points
  30. The BH weekend could be really nice if we get some luck!.. This is my pick of the GEFS 12z..potentially a fine and much warmer spell later next week.?
    2 points
  31. Last post from me today, I think the potential for snow not the main thing with the Sunday Monday system, these systems coming from the south are relatively rare, but from looks of the model output could hit the SE quite hard, GFS cumulative rainfall over just 72hrs: Switching modes of attention to the bank holiday weekend, ECM mean at T192 giving good support to the idea of a warm and settled spell developing:
    2 points
  32. Agreed mike, the Ecm 12z shows much better weather later next week as high pressure ridges in and temperatures rise significantly!?
    2 points
  33. Day started fine enough, though cool with light to occasionally moderate winds - temperature peaked at 10C around 11:30am. Then on the horizon you see this and you know things can only go downhill.... And so it was with heavy rain off and on from midday until 5pm and decidedly cool with temperature dropping in the rain to 6C. Dare I say it that the garden needed some rain. It's cleared up since then to a fine evening with clear skies forming. This could be good news for viewing the aurora as got an email alert saying activity is high just now. If not visible here, will try and take the lazy option and view the spectacle from Shetland courtesy of this webcam (Shetland Webcams is an excellent way to waste a few minutes at lunchtime just now as the Puffins are nesting). Garden is start to bloom well now, Primulas in full bloom..
    2 points
  34. The Gfs 12z shows a risk of snow on tuesday morning too..May 1st!❄❄❄
    2 points
  35. Because, as has been explained numerous times on here, almost all television, newspaper and online media is pro-Union, therefore, they do not report in a fair and balanced manner (if at all) on issues wish impact on the consitution of Scotland. The very fact that you say few people care, shows how the mainstream media is performing well but also signing their own death warrants. The collapse of the Scottish print media has been in free fall for some time as they have aliented half the population for a start with their peristant pro Union stance. It is in fact amazing that despite the media being almost completely anti SNP, that they have been in power now for over 10 years.
    2 points
  36. Currently 6c and raining so can imagine it’s sleety up there... at least sunny Saturday/Sunday maybe but going to feel cold Sunday night/Monday with risk of winteryness on hills according to Peak District forecast.... scratch that I know gfs can be a loose canon at times but snow Monday/Tuesday?
    2 points
  37. ECM and GFS currently agree on an arm of the Azores high pressure extending across the UK by 4th May only to be shunted out of the way somewhat by the 7th or 8th by low pressure arriving from Greenland.... ECM GFS GEM, on the other hand, sees the Azores high being made of stronger stuff and holding the low pressure off to the west... GEM. (Edit: ECM gif not working, apparently....)
    2 points
  38. I've experienced 35c temps in central London before it was lovely from my POV
    2 points
  39. Continuing uncertainty with the track of the low Monday with the ecm keeping central Channel longer and the front running straight up the country. Nice 0600 UTC geostationary
    2 points
  40. Today A very wet day for England and Wales as the low and associated fronts tractkeast across southern England before clearing into the North Sea later tonight. Elsewhere across N. Ireland and Scotland, and even northern England isolated showers, perhaps thundery. Saturday Cloudy and quite cool across central and eastern England with patchy rain whilst brighter elsewhere with isolated showers in the light winds. The neutrally aligned upper trough to the west stretching a fair way south and is about to play an important role over the next couple of days. Sunday A generally dry day but the upper trough is being realigned as it comes under pressure from the high pressure ridging to the west and the block to the east and it spawns a surface low over France which is becoming a major feature by 1800.and is developing rapidly as it moves north into the North Sea. The key here is how far west will it track as it is accompanied by heavy rain and quite likely northerly gales. Similar theme through Monday before the low moves east so certainly quite a cool and wet period for eastern and south eastern areas with even the possibility of some snow on the higher ground in the south. But just to repeat this is according to the gfs and there is still some uncertainty about how far west it will track
    2 points
  41. i hope it is the cloudiest on record..i will enjoy you moaning about the lack of sun all summer long
    2 points
  42. Aw thank you. My world has gone a bit bonkers so don't have a lot of time, not only is it a really busy time of year but it seems I'm going to be moving in the next few weeks too. We got planning consent to build a house and the intention was to build it whilst living in our current home, then sell and move into the new one. Sorting the finance was proving a bit of a headache but we finally got that all sorted and were just about to start setting the wheels in motion when we got a knock at the door.....A neighbour wants to buy our house, cash buyer so we'd be really stupid to turn it down - fantastic news :-) However, it's thrown all the plans into complete disarray and we now have to find a rental property pronto - easier said than done when you've got two dogs. Looked at buying a static caravan to put on site, can't get it down there, renting is proving to be a nightmare, currently considering building a timber cabin and putting everything into storage (oh my god, that's staggeringly expensive!). Sods law dictates if I end up living in little more than a garden shed for a year, next winter will deliver the mother load of snow for weeks on end. So, if anyone knows of a rental house in this area, that accepts pets, I'd be eternally grateful. Frost????? Seriously???? No, no, no, no, no, pears, apples, plums, cherries all covered in blossom around here.
    2 points
  43. The Ecm 12z certainly shows a big improvement for the south later next week as high pressure ridges in and becoming much warmer compared to the cold, wet and windy start to next week..another taste of summer...for the south!?
    2 points
  44. Probably going to finish on 9.7°c after adjustments. Some regional variation where the south will have the highest anomaly again (possibly over 2.0°c) whereas the north will probably be within 1.0°c of the 71-2000 average.
    2 points
  45. Hopefully this summer doesn't make it 7 of the top 10 cloudiest summers since 2007! These are the cloudiest summers at Heathrow since sunshine started being recorded there in 1957. 1. 440.3 hrs (1968)2. 445.8 hrs (1958)3. 462.7 hrs (2012)4. 478.7 hrs (2008)5. 481.0 hrs (1977)6. 481.3 hrs (1987)7. 485.9 hrs (2016)8. 491.2 hrs (2011)9. 492.2 hrs (2007)10. 492.8 hrs (2010)
    2 points
  46. You nuts? Last week was glorious, this week cold and sh*te.
    2 points
  47. I’m not hoping for anymore either hopefully just atop the hills... don’t want anymore frosts either... spent whole of last two weeks gardening, cutting back bushes/branches, building a veggie patch with railway sleepers, repairing fences and shed roof... hopefully next weekend looking springlike sunny and warm ?
    1 point
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