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Yes, atmosphere strongly capped today and tomorrow across England from upper level high close to the east and the associated subsidence, despite a few 100 j/kg CAPE being shown by GFS. So worth remember to not alway assume there will be storms by going on the CAPE charts alone. However, over the weekend, the upper high will retreat east and heights / surface pressure will fall, bulge north of plume of warm/moist air from France on Saturday likely to destabilise on northern and northwestern edge over western and central areas as upper trough interacts and temps cool aloft to destbilise it and form thunderstorms. Not a great deal of vertical shear on offer from models, so severe potential limited and storms could be elevated, but if home-grown surface-based can form, might be some large hail.

Great to see ECM going for another spell of settled weather to develop later next week

so hot i just had to get my sausages out and chill my melons

Official met office data now the hottest April day since 1949!

I really hope so for anyone running the marathon on Sunday, let's get it back under 20c for you all otherwise it's going to be just that bit tougher than it already is for so many people doing something I am in awe of for charity - very best of luck to everyone running! I have to say today has been just the perfect temperature for me in central London, up to 25c, just perfect for wandering around in (should read: wandering to the park for a beer in). Tomorrow will probably be a little bit unbearable for so early in the season with 28c likely to be hit I would think looking at high res modelling. Back down a few degrees it looks like again by Friday and into the weekend so something a bit more comfortable. What an incredible couple of months of weather we have had

The Gem 12z shows an increasingly unsettled and much colder outlook during next week with some areas struggling to reach 5c at times..compare that to 29.1c today!

GFS is well out for today 27.5c before noon at Heathrow Could 30c be hit?!

It's cracking warm weather, there's CAPE in the forecasts, the storm forum is awake from its hibernation, Nick F is posting! I'm happy again!

Actually though, the GEFS 12z mean doesn't indicate anything wintry, southern uk shows average temps (13-15c) a bit cooler for scotland.

Looks like next week we'll be making our payment for the 2nd hottest April day of all time as we are catapulted right back into the depths of Winter. http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=275&y=105

It's officially the hottest April day (nationwide) since 1949!

Spot on Mike, 29 heading for possibly 29.5 or even 30c 85 / 86f in london this late afternoon, the Gfs has woefully underestimated the maxima yet again..it's a real sizzler in the SE and tomorrow is expected to reach 27c (in the SE) and maybe a little higher!?...it's a fantastic day across most of england and wales today with temps hitting the mid 20's celsius..perfick

ECM gives a little window of warmer weather again towards next weekend

Any chance of -20c uppers moving in over night so i can get a good night's slap?

Wow what a lovely hot , uplifting day ! Enjoyed mowing my lawn before I jet off into more sun next week ! My neighbours ginger cat got stuck up my tree so rescued it ! And to finish the day off I had to burn my baps so all in all a fab day !

So apparently Heathrow might have got to 29c but not confirmed yet. The live temperature I follow said it got to 28.7c which is absolutely phenomenal for April and this time last month we had snow on the ground... Incredible what a spell of weather and lasting into Sunday with a potential thundery break down. Oh hellooooo summer!

I reckon we'll get a combo of June 1976, July 2006 and August 1995, but 10 times hotter.

You have more than one sausage?!

If it looks nice out why not leave it out all day?

Pathetic Gfs!!!...it has reached 29c 84f in London and it could rise a bit further yet!!

Maybe but the ensembles show a definite cool down

Better Gefs 00z mean longer term, although we enter a more zonal atlantic pattern next week, it looks like the south would see some high pressure / ridging at times so potentially more of a north / south split with the most unsettled weather tending to be further n / nw with the s / se seeing some fine warmer weather between the more unsettled spells..better than last evening's 12z mean.?

Kinda wish they taught more storm related meteorology on my uni course, only had a couple of lectures on the topic and it was the most basic concepts. Hoping to fill some gaps in my knowledge here so keep these types of posts coming ?

not sure whether summer is a good season or not Summer Pros Sun Vitamin D lots of daylight bbqs ice cream summer fruits sun bathing growing stuff in the garden thunderstorms Summer Cons Hayfever Pollution Wasps Bin maggots Humidity Pub fights chavs loitering on street corners sleepless nights Sunburn jock itch sweating constantly more noise pollution ant invasions mosquitos

Warmest day of the year if the outside thermometer is to be believed at 18C. Dry with a moderate SW wind all day - thankfully not as strong and damaging as yesterday. Fields around us full of tractor lights until 11pm last night, farmers making up for lost time with sowing by the looks of things. Still some geese around though which is late for them - Oystercatchers are here now which is another welcome sign of summer coming.

I'm going to give my overview of the thunderstorm potential for the next few days up until Sunday. The main thing to note during this period is the dominance of high pressure which significantly reduces the risk of storms, along with lack of moisture and high CAPE values for majority of period. A few definitions for those who are learning I'll quickly go through them. CAPE: Convective Available Potential Energy - Measure of amount of energy for convection, therefore higher CAPE = quicker storm formation and more frequent lightning. DLS: Deep Layer Shear - A measure of wind shear between the mid levels of the atmosphere and surface. High DLS values means storms will become more organised and persistent bringing a greater chance of severe characteristics. SRH: Storm Relative Helicity - Measure of potential for cyclonic updraft rotation. Therefore higher SRH, greater potential of supercelluar characteristics. PW: Precipitable Water - Indicates the amount of moisture within the air. Higher PW greater chance of storm formation but too high and atmosphere becomes saturated. Tomorrow (Thursday): As you see from the graphs below, we are seeing SB CAPE values of 1000J/kg, this is as a result of strong diurnal heating. As a result we see a few storms form across CS England into East Midlands. The Netweather NMM model shows the formation of a convergence zone which set off these storms. It must be noted that whilst the NMM model produces storms, the lack of available moisture (precipitable water) and under the influence of high pressure, I cannot see much potential tomorrow. However if a storm does form, the low PW values along with 30-40knts of DLS, means that any storm may last a long time from its sustained updraft. Lighting amounts will be fairly infrequent. Friday: Friday warrants a similar risk to Thursday. CAPE values are fairly higher stretching towards 1500J/kg, but must be noted this isn't important if there isn't any available moisture. Again the NMM model are very generous with the breakout of storms, however precipitable water values are a little higher so I'd favour Friday over Tomorrow. We also see values of 30-40knts of DLS therefore any storm that does form will see more frequent lightning activity as the updraft will be long-lived. I must stress that even with these favourable parameters given high pressure is in control, we are more likely to see nothing rather than something. My best bet is just north of M4/Bristol Channel across SW Midlands. Saturday: A much greater risk lies on Saturday, at this point high pressure tends to move back away to the east. As you see CAPE values are even higher approaching 1800J/kg, showing the potential for some very frequent lightning. The reason there is a much greater risk of Saturday is because of the much higher precipitable water values, lower pressure (whilst still high) and a well-defined convergence zone. DLS amounts are rather slim for Saturday however, storm relative helicity values which represent the potential for cyclonic motion within an updraft, are pushing towards 150-200m^2s^-2. Therefore any storms on Saturday I expect to form along a line from North Wales towards East Anglia and the London Area, a few storms just North of M4, but lower risk. These storms will exhibit the potential for supercelluar characteristics but these will be relatively short given lack of DLS and may only occur within a tight time frame. All storms will have a relatively short duration but will result in some very frequent lightning. Sunday's potential remains to be seen as charts don't quite reach that time frame but interesting times nevertheless. I hope this have given you an insight on what we could expect this upcoming week. I'm still learning myself all the time so apologies for any errors.

Well, it's that time of year again, summer is now within touching distance and keeping in line with previous years threads it's now time to get this year's summer thread up and running If only we could have more days like today in summer!

lol i was only 25 years old back then

Showing your age now eh

A real mad Spring considering we saw two spells in March where ice days were recorded quite widely. Add to that we have also seen some extremely wet weather at times and also just a week ago some incredibly dull weather. I guess all we are missing is some proper convective activity, hopefully the weekend should sort that.

move over 2, 3 and 4 ... 26 max today and 10 min would be good for 18.0. Earliest on record. (18th provisionally 16.7 new 6th on above list. Note current 5th place 30-4-1827 hiding behind daily record 2nd place 30-4-1775.

i moved here from Chernobyl

It is a singularity on a par with Dec 2015. BTW any reference to 1795 in the above should read 1775. I will bump my earlier posted list of the top CET daily values. Some are hiding behind the 1775 records.

Rubbish Lass - it'll be raining cats and goats!

Going to be a very close call on 1949 now, London Temps at 28C by 2pm, nothing to stop them rising for another hour and a half

Just hit 25°C Perfect set up for it here, with a very light wind coming from the eastern quarter.

9.1 to the 18th 1.8 above the 61 to 90 average 1.3 above the 81 to 10 average ______________________________________ Current high this month 9.1 to the 18th

Minimum of 16c all night currently 17c and a bit overcast. Growth almost tropical with horse chestnut bursting into leaf. As another farmer said we"ll soon be shouting for rain but said to him we shouldn"t have to wait long.

A heavy dew earlier and now a beautiful still sunny morning with just a few high level clouds. Temp 13C.....coffee and toast taken on patio. No excuses for avoiding the garden today.

9.2c and 85mm please.

Well it certainly was a "scorcher" yesterday and out and about, felt very warm. Today looks the peak, for heat. But the fine warm spell continuing, over the weekend too. Certainly looks like some more normal "fayre", for the back end of April, arrives, as we go through next week. Accompanied my wife, Colette, over to Queen Mary's hospital in Sidcup, yesterday, for a lunchtime MRI scan and to paraphrase a Phil Collins album, it certainly was a case of "No Jacket Required"!! My wife even commented, that my bald pate, had "caught the sun". My wife, had to abort the scan, due to "claustrophobic" feelings. She has reschedueled the scan, for a few weeks time, after she's collected a little calming, Diazepam, from her GP .My wife wouldn't let me sit with her, during the scan, as she felt being exposed to that loud, "drilling-type" noise, would be detrimental to my brain, after having 4 MRI scans, in the past two and a half years, myself. But despite trying to reassure her, that I would be fine sitting with her, she insisted that I didn't go into the scanning room, with her. I told her, not to "beat herself up", about her claustrophobia, as I sometimes feel "very silly", suffering from my Brontophobic, tendencies!! Actually wore shorts around the house, yesterday afternoon, for the first time in months. And we've already had to have our bedroom fan on, for the last couple of nights. Our bedroom, very quickly becomes uncomfortably warm, after a little bit of heat!! Hope you all enjoy, another "sun-drenched" day. Regards, Tom.

Yet to see any forecasts for any of the storm forecasters at ESTOFEX and ConvectiveWeaher and understandably so. Very limited convection as high pressure strongly in charge we may have to wait until Saturday at the earliest!

Hairy toes Flip flops

Very good, I would add though a big Summer con you forgot.....LACK OF SNOW!

Cheers ben! No offence to other forecasters who are also awesome - but if all storm predictions could be more like this it would be a perfect world ?

Looking at the GEFS 12z mean beyond this week shows an increasingly unsettled atlantic driven pattern with temperatures returning closer to average but feeling cool at times during stronger winds and spells of rain, probably the best of any pleasant weather tending to be across the s / se..back to ? with a bump next week.

GFS has underestimated today's high by 3c so far with 25c in Gravesend and St James Park, London Tomorrow it is going for a high of 25c given its tendency to underestimate I wouldn't be surprised to see 28c recorded maybe 29c at a push

8.7 to the 17th 1.5 above the 61 to 90 average 0.9 above the 81 to 10 average ______________________________________ Current high this month 8.7 to the 17th

Lovely chart from the CFS for the southeast in 6654 hours