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Just taking cursory glances at the models currently, given margins for sudden changes are very slim - unlike just 2/3 weeks back. We are still in a very amplified flow, classic ridge/trough/ridge scenario, with the the whole of UK locked on the warm side of the trough for the first time since January (the emphasis is on whole of UK, at times the south has been on the warmer but for the northern half of the UK we've had many weeks of being on the colder side - well since the SSW. So a few very pleasant days ahead, significant warmth for central/south/south east parts, and dry for most away from the far NW. Western parts will see above average temps, but tempered by winds coming off the atlantic/irish sea - its no nationwide blue sky dry warm spell ahead, very much a SE quarter affair. Into next week - signs heights will collapse into Europe with the jet firing back on a more zonal flow, ushering in cooler westerlies, with hints of the trough perhaps aligning more on a NW-SE path which would allow for heights to strengthen to the NW and we could see a colder northerly shot before the month is out- very par for the course at this time of the year. Enjoy the upcoming warmth (I'm not calling it a heatwave, that phrase is far too liberally used, just like the word 'freezing' in winter), will be nice to have some sunshine as well, a marked change in the feel of things is about to occur - that shift from winter base state to summer base state, with nature responding, expect plenty of leaf buds to suddenly burst into green foliage, bees and wasps will be buzzing around, the birds will make for a hive of activity in the skies as summer migrants return.. and we have the joy of May and June just ahead.

So by common agreement we have a warm spell arriving. Do we bask in this prediction? Not some of you just arguing will it be 21 C 23 C or 25 C. For gawds sake stop bickering and enjoy the summer like weather for many areas for 2-3 days.

Morning all While some quibble over whether it'll be 22, 23, 25 or 27c on Thursday (and for those of us stuck in an office and unable to take part in the seemingly obligatory BBQ it's immaterial) the weather moves on its merry way oblivious to our wants, needs, hopes and desires. Yesterday the post-heat breakdown was looking quite messy but let's see if anything approaching clarity has arrived as I look at the output for Friday April 27th and start with the 00Z ECM at T+240: To be fair, ECM keeps the fine spell going through the weekend and into next week by a new push of heights to the north and then the east of the British isles but the break down is only postponed and by T+240 a fresh W'ly regime is in place with LP to the north and HP to the south west so always drier and warmer to the south with rain or showers further north. GEM 00Z at the same time: GEM breaks down the fine spell much more quickly than ECM (it's gone by Monday on the former) and from then on it's a WNW'ly with broad if reasonably shallow areas of LP on a slight negative tilt moving from the area south of Iceland crossing Scotland and into Europe. HP is suppressed to the south so it's a cool and changeable outlook with periods of rain or showers for many but the rain always lighter to the south. GFS 00Z OP at T+240: Slightly different but the overall evolution is similar to GEM. The fine spell is replaced over the weekend by a cooler W'ly form and there's a NW'ly by T+240 as the trough migrates to Scandinavia pulling in cooler air. Signs perhaps of a pressure rise in mid Atlantic behind and while it doesn't happen at once the Greenland HP re-asserts and the trough sinks close to the British Isles further into FI. The resulting air flow is sourced from Scandinavia so won't be warm. GFS Control at the same time: Very unsettled with rain or showers for most. Further into FI, a ridge builds north from the Azores and across northern Britain into Scandinavia bringing a return of some warmer air. The 00Z GEFS at T+240: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=240 The 850s tell a clear tail with most having negative values across the British Isles by this time. The OP representative of the suite in my view with the majority suggesting a cool NW'ly flow - one or two go further and have a N'ly. Only a couple of members keep a warmer S'ly component by this time so it looks all over for the fine spell by this time. Further into FI and easterlies are appearing as is the Greenland HP but that's by no means a done deal by this time. We often see a colder interlude in late April or early May and this year looks set to be no exception. In summary, some fine warm and sunny days in the near future but the breakdown is clear and into next week it looks like a deteriorating situation with more changeable and cooler conditions encroaching from the north and west. From there, it's still unclear but the end of April and beginning of May are often colder and more unsettled and this may again be the case with the possibility of the Greenland HP building down and introducing something more N'ly in nature. As ever, more runs are needed.

In terms of the overall upper pattern there seems little expectation of ridging keeping settled weather beyond this coming weekend. By then a generally westerly pattern is showing on the 3 main anaomly charts. A north to south type of split in terms of more or less settled on a very broad scale description. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

I remember when this forum was a great resource of knowledge...I've always for many years in fact eves dropped with great interest....lately trawling through here is becoming a bit of a gfuqhgfpjh fest for want of a better phrase...with people having do defend their posts and various point scoring boring waftery. Surely we are going to lose some great posters in here if it carries on like this. Please for the love of God if you take issue with something PM each other or just leave. The majority on here are having it spoilt by the few..let's bring back some common sense..

A quick look at last night's anomalies to try to see where we are going with this as a pattern change is in the offing after next weekend. There are differences in detail, (see the GEFS and EPS vis the Greenland trough/European high pressure) .but they are in the same ball park. The key features being twin vortex lobes northern Canada, with associated trough Greenland/Iceland and N. Russia with the east European trough. There is a pretty flat westerly flow across North America, which is reasonably strong across the Atlantic and into the UK, which portends a much more changeable scenario as systems track east, but depending somewhat on the strength and position of the weakening European high how much of a N/S split materializes. Something the det. runs will need to sort.. Temps returning to near average perhaps a little above. Today the frontal system associated with the deep low to the west of Ireland is already bringing strong winds and rain into western parts. The frontal band of rain will slowly track south east during the day but will gradually fizzle out during the afternoon as it struggles against the block to the south east. Heavy showers may develop behind the front in the north west and remaining windy but in the south east temps quite respectable in the sunshine But all the time the block to the south east is intensifying with the help of the Azores and European ridges and a high cell has formed of Germany and is spreading it's influence west over the UK whilst the trough to the west re-orientates to a neutral tilt. Thus light winds and a fine and sunny day for the UK with temps significantly above average except for N. Ireland and the north west which will still be on the fringes of the trough with some patchy rain. By Thursday a not dissimilar picture but the High cell to the south east is taking a positive tilt and the trough to the west starting to deconstruct under pressure from the energy exciting North America. This introduces a south westerly drift into north western areas which results in a tight NW/SE temp gradient to the very warm south east. By Friday the trough has deconstructed and the high cell taken on a much more positive tilt resulting in a surface cell settling over the UK. Thus another calm very warm day but the orientation of the cell does lead to quite a sharp temp delineation along a line roughly North Wales to Newcastle with temps NW of the line a fair bit lower, particularly near the coast. The only difference on Saturday being a slight adjustment to the orientation of the high cell leading to a more uniform temp distribution with the temps not so high in the south but still a dry and warm day for all Just to add the temps are obviously just according to the GFS and should certainly not be taken as definitive.

Sorry but these charts seem to be full of false promise. A slight raise from 9C to 13C over the last 4 days might show red on mean charts, but intermittent rain and low eastern clouds aren't my idea of early Summer. So please keep it real when posting average charts without actual weather musings. Quoting comparable April warmth and red charts dont necessarily equate to factor 30 weather, I think we're a few months early for those warnings, so please keep it real. Charts showing oranges/reds in the late Spring are different to Blues and purples, as the former guarantee snow, whereas the latter just means cold or not so cold rain most of the time.

Up early with the "Dawn Chorus" again. Well we look set up for a few days of unseasonably warm weather, from tomorrow until the weekend, before it turns cooler again. On a personal level, it doesn't feel me with, too much joy. Final confirmation that my favourite sort of weather, cold and snow, has come to an end, for another season. But this isn't because I'm anti, sunny/warm spells but more to do with our "doll" sized house, which becomes uncomfortably warm, during prolonged spells of heat. Even in moderately warm weather, sleeping at night can become, very uncomfortable. Those members that live in the London area, will know what I'm talking about. Sometimes, during hot and humid weather, the temperature barely falls below 20c, at night!! Even though we didn't experience any extreme heat, last Summer, we had our bedroom fan on throughout the season, at night. Also, being easily fatigued after suffering an Haemorrhagic Stroke, two and a half years ago, doesn't help. As well as still being slightly Brontophobic in nature, the thought of impending Summer heat and possibly associated thunder, doesn't feel me with joy, either. On the subject of my illness, I have a follow up appointment with a Neurologist, at Bromley's PRU hospital, later this morning. This to discuss the results of an MRI brain scan I had, a couple of months ago, to investigate, Neuralgic type soreness I've been experiencing, for the past year or so. The Neurologist didn't seem unduly concerned when she saw me back in January and seemed to think soreness was due to nerve damage or even scar tissue, left by surgeon, when he removed a drain from the left hand side of my brain, following emergency surgery, back in Sept.2015. And the initial report of my brain scan, seemed to suggest, just that. Probably scar tissue/nerve damage and nothing "sinister", going on but I'll know more, later this morning. Hope you all enjoy, the burst of Summer type warmth and sunshine, over the next few days. Regards, Tom.

Great Ecm 12z, especially for the south which even continues next mon / tues..really very warm for the time of year for the south during the next 7 days according to this run!!..the south / southeast looks truly blessed?

Interestingly, the ECM follows the GFS with some amplification in the Atlantic at T240, bringing in the possibility of a northerly: GFS was more strongly suggesting this earlier: I wonder if, after the cold and later dull first half of spring, the second half will blow hot and cold before summer takes over?

Is this what you meant mike? Anyway, moving on, the Gfs 12z shows the heat building further s / se during the next 2 / 3 days with 24c possible tomorrow, 26c on thursday and 27c 81f on friday..and very warm during the weekend too further south with 21-23c and also a risk of a few heavy showers / thunderstorms..some of us are on the cusp of a sensational spell of summery warmth / heat, especially london and the southeast generally!?

Now that temperatures are going to be main talking point, it will be interesting to track which model has the best handle at short range. (At least for me!) Tomorrow afternoon on some of the models we use (either charts for 4pm, or maxes between 3pm and 6pm used) Quite a lot of similarities there, but some differences too. Focusing towards the southern half, HIRLAM the warmest (20C widely for England, 22C-23C across parts of the SE) - NNM also 20C widely across England away from SW with northern cities slightly higher. ARGEPE, GFS and ECM take the middle ground with a smaller area of 20C-22C and most areas 18-19C. EURO4 the coolest with just the SE getting above 20C, and northern/western areas often a couple of degrees down on other charts. Further north, differences more exaggerated - the GFS and NNM see fairly warm days through the main Scottish cities with 18C possible, but some charts far cooler. ARGEPE/EURO4 pretty chilly for western Scotland. It'll be interesting to see exactly what figures are achieved and how they compare to these models. I've seen some forecasts of up to 25C for London tomorrow (24C on BBC website), which would be quite different to all of these models except perhaps the HIRLAM.

The past few runs from ECM has seen it extend the warmth into next week it could be the back end of next week now before it moves away

Interesting to note Met Office definition of a heatwave (sorry mods for going a bit off topic here, and you can reign me in or any other posts that might now discuss this..), by the definition, then yes preety much all of England and Wales will see a heatwave - with 5 consecutive days starting tomorrow being at least 5 degrees above the average. Is it 5 degrees above mean average or max? However, it is all relative, and subjective and when can we start calling a warm spell a heatwave, by this reckoning 5 days with maxes 16 degrees or above in March would constitute a heatwave.. wherever in the UK (given average maxes of 10-11 degrees in warmest parts) Also depends on where you are. The upcoming spell if it occurred in June, July or August wouldn't by this definition constitute a heatwave. My own benchmark is a threshold of about 25 degrees whatever the time of year wherever in the UK. Then is it a heatwave if it also wet or cloudy.. oh dear I've probably opened a can of worms.

After a nightmare journey to an 8am hospital appointment in Sidcup where the last 1 mile took exactly 1 hour to complete, it was a massive relief to finally get back to the warm afternoon sunshine here in Hasting/St Leonards-on-Sea. Almost 7.5 hours of sunshine and a max of 17.9c recorded locally

The GFS shows the Jetstream continuing to target the UK through late April and early May and until we can see this move further north the weather is likely to remain influenced by the Atlantic and therefore mainly unsettled, and probably cool or average temperatures at best: Disclaimer: this is the gospel according to the GFS and is not written in stone!

Sorry, but I think your misinterpreting my post. As what I was trying to say is reds on these type of charts don't mean Sun or early Summer. I was sunburnt 2 weeks ago in the Spring Sun after 1hr on blue charts, but let's not oversell red charts. The last few days where I am in the east have remained cold in the rain yet charts posted a few days ago showed red, a bit of a mis match. I just think there is too much premise put on average temperature charts, with an agenda, without any mention whatsoever of actual weather which in reality pulls temps down.

Back sowing some of the damper fields now drying up fast in the strong south -south westerly wind. Rain shadow effect of Cairngorms fully operational. Currently 13c

Just for fun,,,,1st May on GFS 12z showing MIDDAY MAXIMUMS

I disagree with the bit in bold. The Met Office defines a heatwave as temps 5 degrees C above average for 5 days or more, and at this time of year if it pans out as modelled it will certainly qualify for some parts of the UK. Agree with the rest of your post though. ECM ensembles out. T240: Westerlies, I think. But this is a mean chart, I'd like to see the clusters.

On those projections, one thing this warm spell won't do is to set an early season landmark record high CET, as 16th April 1945 was 17.0. But if any day exceeds 17.0 before 29th, then it does that. Seems that the all-time high of 19.7 (29th, 1775) will survive. Here is the top 15 list for warmest second half of Aprils (1772 to 2017) for the 16th to 30th mean CET ... and their warmest reading. These are also the only years to achieve 11.0 or higher for the second half of April. There was no year above 10.9 in the long stretch from 1894 to 1967 inclusive. The warmest from 1915 to 1942 inclusive was a mere 9.6. So these warmer second halves of April are mainly to be found in the first half and last quarter of the past 246 years. Since the warmth of April 2011, the average for the last half of April 2012-17 has been only 8.48 deg. 2014 was warmest at 10.39 and none of the rest exceeded 9.2. We will revisit this list when confirmed CET data are available around 2nd of May to see where 2018 fits into this. Rank __ Year ____ CET ____ max (date) _ 1 ____ 1987 ___ 12.73 ___ 15.2 (29th) _ 2 ____ 2011 ___ 12.58 ___ 15.8 (23rd) _ 3 ____ 1794 ___ 12.47 ___ 16.1 (27th) _ 4 ____ 1840 ___ 12.45 ___ 15.0 (25th) _ 5 ____ 1893 ___ 12.35 ___ 16.6 (20th) _ 6 ____ 2007 ___ 12.27 ___ 15.3 (24th) _ 7 ____ 1874 ___ 12.07 ___ 15.9 (23rd) _ 8 ____ 1775 ___ 11.99 ___ 19.7 (29th) _ 9 ____ 1796 ___ 11.75 ___ 14.0 (23rd) _10____ 2003 ___ 11.33 ___ 16.2 (16th) _11____ 1968 ___ 11.31 ___ 15.5 (21st) _12____ 1993 ___ 11.29 ___ 13.8 (30th) _13____ 1865 ___ 11.27 ___ 14.9 (17th) _14____ 1821 ___ 11.07 ___ 15.9 (25th, 26th) _15____ 1975 ___ 11.05 ___ 14.5 (26th) ____________________________________________ I noticed while researching the max dates that April 1865 actually managed to average 11 C as a whole month right up to the 28th then dropped back with two chilly days at the end (6.3, 6.4) so its average CET 10.6 hides the fact that it was running as warm as April 2007 for most of the way. Also worth noting that 11th to 20th of April 1945 averaged 14.17, but much colder weather at the end of the month removed this year from the list above.

Yep, that's the one Frosty! But before the zonal Mayor demon strikes, we've got ECM continuing the heatwave into Sunday and even Monday for some parts, here at T120, T144: I'm interested to see where this run goes from here as well.

according to the mod lot, after this warmish spell, things become unsettled with the jet straight over the UK, I won't give up on snow until the first of July

The last time I saw a creature that looked like this was in series 3 of Buffy the Vampire Slayer: GEFS mean suggesting a very zonal westerly period following the heatwave.

Hello Mark, Thanks for your reply. Yesterday morning I was finally able to mow my lawn at the back of my house, although it the grass was still quite wet. In the afternoon I visited my allotment which is the other side of town. It was much drier than I thought it would be and I was able to walk on it without damaging the texture. My plot is on a slope at the top of the incline and other plots further down the slope looked much wetter. I pulled up my old Brussels Sprout plants and put the leaves into my three compost bins. The final one I opened revealed a pleasant surprise. In the top was a beautiful golden brown slow-worm about 2 foot long. Today is certainly a good one for drying out the soil with the combination of wind and sun. My wife and I are going away from tomorrow lunchtime until Friday to stay in Witney, Oxfordshire for a complete break as we feel we need it after the trials and tribulations we have had recently with our and our son's various health issues. I am just about to go to Broomfield District Hospital for a bran scan and I hope nothing untoward is discovered. Hopefully they will be able to locate a brain! Good luck with the visitors. If it gets too much we do a half decent B & B at decent rates. Kind Regards Dave

Here's the forecast based on the 06z GFS Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg) 8.6C to the 17th... +0.8 (12.6: +4.2) 9.1C to the 18th... +1.3 (16.3: +8.2) [Daily Record = 14.5C from 1945] 9.5C to the 19th... +1.7 (16.9: +8.8) [Daily Record = 15.4C from 1870] 9.8C to the 20th... +2.0 (16.7: +8.3) [Daily Record = 16.6C from 1893] 10.1C to the 21st.. +2.2 (16.4: +7.2) [Daily Record = 16.1C from 1893] 10.4C to the 22nd.. +2.4 (16.4: +7.0) [Daily Record = 15.4C from 2011] 10.5C to the 23rd.. +2.4 (11.5: +1.8) 10.5C to the 24th.. +2.4 (12.2: +2.5) 10.6C to the 25th.. +2.4 (11.7: +1.6) 10.6C to the 26th.. +2.3 (11.0: +0.9) The impressive warm spell in now within sight, and a serious stretch of not just record breaking daily values, but numerous other April records are now on offer.

I did hear a noise this morning, quite early, sounded like thunder or a plane doing one of the super sonic things, a gun or a car farting. Weird it was.

Thundersnow for next week, eh? I like it. Not!

and then it will hopefully snow....right

Generally less settled as the month draws to a close, but a split on whether warmer weather persists for the east (at least for a time) or whether a cooler W or WNWly regime is dominant

I think you are mis-interpreting the charts? If it was showing 9 to 13c it would be blue, as these are anomalies relative to the average for the date period. As we are in mid to late April, the daily average is around 12c (16c max/8c min), so the reds indicate roughly 5c above the mean for the period shown, which is what we are about to get. Also, the sun is as strong now as it is in August, so 25c with strong sunshine will feel warm, and with a high risk of burning.

Fantastic day again breezy low humidity,sunny and dust blowing on farm road. Grass fields greening up as well and daffs on farm road nearly in full bloom on south facing dyke. Currently 11c.Spring has sprung.

Once the cloud cleared late morning here in St Leonards-on-Sea it was a day of clear blue skies and warmish sunshine, temperatures around 14c with a light to moderate breeze. Looking fair for the rest of the week.

Perfect spring in my opinion beasts and snow aplenty to start March now temps in mid 20s here in the SE in mid April ?

Right....the models are within the reliable timeframe now for some serious warmth. I have to say not to my liking as the last thing I want on my waik to the station each morning is to feel too warm and sticky in my suit, followed by a warm train journey (They surely won't turn off the heating for another few weeks!) The time to buy a fan is now, before the rush comes! I wonder if we will see a return to colder arctic air after this week as some model runs have hinted at? Would remind me of early May 1997 where days of scorchers were soon followed by a bank holiday weekend which featured snow!

Where is this westerly component you speak of? Barely any.. if you looked at the charts. I see it’s not looking as warm for the far NW more of Atlantic influence (scotland) but elsewhere that’s not true.

Not had much time to look at the models in the last few days, back now. Lovely warm spell nailed on Wed-Sat, but where then? GEFS mean looks, well, flat to be honest, zonal neither nowt nor summat weather, here at T240: Hello, ECM pushing fine weather into Sunday at T144: UKMO had flattened the lot by this point, here for comparison: Edit, T192 looks more amplified also to me:

Looking at the output this morning you have to wonder whether some places will see their first thunderstorms this year. Conditions look favourable over northern france for storm development. IMO the atmosphere looks too stable here but we may get lucky and see some cross the channel. Late next weekend into early next week looks more likely for home grown storms if the 00z GFS is to be believed. However GFS has a tendancy to overdo CAPE. Either way its looking notably warm for mid April and very summer like. Hopefully not too hot for the London marathon on Sunday. PS I think ANYWEATHER is getting confused between weather and climate yet again. I will just leave it at that...

The full results of the EWP contest can now be found here: https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/75427-cet-competition-the-scores-ongoing/?page=8 This is the top 12 for the annual contest after March ... Rank __ FORECASTER ______________ Dec _ Jan _ Feb _ Mar ____ TOTAL ___ last month _01 ___ JONBOY ___________________ 9.2 __ 7.8 __ 6.4 __ 9.6 ____ 33.0 ____ _ 02 _02 ___ SINGULARITY _______________5.2 __ 7.2 __ 9.8 __ 7.7 ____ 29.9 ____ _ 05 _03 ___ VIZZY2004 __________________9.0 __ 9.0 __ 8.9 __ 2.6 ____ 29.5 ____ _ 01 _04 ___ STEWFOX __________________7.0 __ 9.4 __ 4.0 __ 8.9 ____ 29.3 ____ _ 06 _05 ___ DKEANE3 ___________________7.2 __ 7.6 __ 5.2 __ 9.1 ____ 29.1 ____ _ 07 _06 ___ STEVE B ___________________ 7.4 __ 8.2 __ 3.5 __ 8.8 ____ 27.9 ____ _ 11 _07 ___ NORRANCE _________________7.0 __ 2.2 __ 8.4 __ 9.3 ____ 26.9 ____ _ 14 _08 ___ MIDLANDS ICE AGE __________ 3.4 __ 3.3 __ 9.8 __10.0 ___ 26.5 ____ _ 19 _09 ___ DR (S) NO __________________ 9.8 __ 8.8 __ 1.2 __ 6.2 ____ 26.0 ____ _ 08 _10 ___ CHRIS BELL NOT THE WxMAN_10.0 __6.8 __ 2.6 __ 6.4 ____ 25.8 ____ _ 10 _11 ___ BORN FROM THE VOID ______ 6.4 __ 9.8 __ 3.5 __ 5.7 ____ 25.4 ____ _ 09 _12 ___ POLAR GAEL _______________ 4.6 __ 9.4 __ 8.6 __ 2.6 ____ 25.2 ____ _ 03 There was one minor error carried over from the annual table after February, the total score of DR(S)NO failed to include the 1.2 for February and thus the ranks from 8th to 12th in the previous table were out of order, in case anyone looking at their previous rank notices a change (in that range only). DR(S)NO had been tied 11th with Syed2878 but that rank should have been 12th, Dr(S)No moved up to 8th and anyone who was 8th to 10th went to 9th, 10th and 11th in the adjusted Feb rankings. I have backed this up with an excel file and did not find any other previous errors in addition and I hope there aren't any new ones, check your scores though. The rest of the scoring can be seen at the link above.

Here is the latest thrilling update of r O b o T i c ___ 4 Ca S T e r S They walk among us !! ___ Past months ____ ____________DEC _________________________ JAN ________________________ FEB "Forecaster" _ Error _ Pts (range) _ rank (range) __ Error _ Pts (range) _ rank (range) __ Error _ Pts (range) _ rank (range) 1987-2016*__ +0.2 __ 89.4 - 93.4 __ 6 to 9 (88-17)>--0.6 __66.7 - 74.1 _ 15 to 19 ______ +1.9 _ 31.2 - 35.1 _ 51 to 54 1981-2010 __ --0.2 __ 89.4 - 93.4 __ 6 to 9 ______ --0.9 __ 50.0 - 55.6 _ 25 to 28 ______ +1.5 _ 48.1 - 49.4 _ 40 to 41 Consensus __--0.6 __ 71.0 - 74.9 __20 to 23 _____--0.9 __ 50.0 -55.6 _ 25 to 28 _______+1.1 _ 57.1 - 58.4 _ 33 to 34 * becomes 1988-2017 from JAN onward. ________ Current Month __________________________ Contest year averages to date (4 mo)___ "Forecaster" _Mar Error_Mar Points (range)_rank (range) // mean abs error_mean points_mean rank 1988-2017 ___ +1.9 _____ 20.8 - 22.1 ____ 60 to 61 ________ 1.15 ______52.0 - 56.2 __ 33 to 36 1981-2010 ___ +1.7 _____ 26.1 - 26.1 ____ 57 to 57 ________ 1.075_____ 53.4 - 56.1 __ 32 to 34 Consensus ___--0.3 _____ 78.9 - 85.5 ____ 12 to 17 ________ 0.725_____ 64.3 - 68.6 __ 23 to 26 __________________________________________________________________ Our consensus continues to improve vs the random "normal" values for recent 30-year intervals as most forecasters pick up signs of an impending significant negative anomaly in both February and now for March. The errors are scored as in the contest, among those of similar magnitude. In March, no forecaster picked 6.6 (the 1981-2010 normal value) but one had 3.2, a similar error in the opposite direction, and that forecast's rank and points are used. For the more recent normal 1988-2017 one forecast matched its value (6.8) and another was a similar amount below (3.0) the outcome (4.9). Meanwhile, six forecasters were among the group with the same absolute error (only 0.3 deg) as our consensus, three matching it and three a similar distance above the outcome. Eleven forecasts were better than our consensus. If these robot forecasters were in the contest, they would be ranked about where their mean rank lies, possibly a bit higher but not much (can't directly compare because there are other score variables which I don't track for them such as accuracy points). In general, none of these are performing as well as they did in the previous year when they all ended up in the top ten. The average errors (not absolute) of the three so far come out to -0.2 for consensus (our bias is cold), +0.5 for 1981-2010 and +0.85 for 1988-2017. The normals are proving to be unreliably warm in the past two months, they were closer in the first two. ___________________________________________________________________________________________________ THE NEXT EXCITING EPISODE OF rObOTi C __F or EC asT e Rs may occur about this time next month. Find something more important to do. "We will be back."

In case of difficulty accessing the files, I have attached the snapshot figures taken from the spreadsheet. Any comments with downloading files or requested formats would be appreciated. Monthly Scores Overall Scores

Ah yes, thank you. To quote, "Since 1974 the data have been adjusted to allow for urban warming: currently a correction of -0.2 °C is applied to mean temperatures.", Assuming that this is only applied after all the data have been collected, this explains, at least in part, the origin of the corrections (which tend to be between 0.0C and -0.4C, i.e. centred on -0.2C).

Now that 4.9c has been confirmed, here are the figures. Monthly (and Seasonal) Kentish Man leads after getting it spot on with 7 players 0.1c out. The top 10 in the seasonal comp is shown below with vizzy2004 and chrisbell-nottheweatherman finishing the top 3. Overall Norrance retains the lead with Man With beard up to 2nd and Dkeane3 up to 3rd. Mar 2018 CET.pdf March 2018 CET.xlsx

If you go to the Hadley Centre CET home page, it says at the top that the data is adjusted to allow for urbane warming, and that a -0.2 correction is applied to the mean.

Were there any adjustment down in the end or did we finish up without any adjustments at 4.9c in the end?

Can't see it being Urban heat island because if you listen to the forecasts the adjustment is a lot more than 0.xx degrees.

The spreadsheet is ready to be downloaded as soon as 4.9c is confirmed. Only one person got this spot on - Kentish Man.

Looks QBO related when you line them up in clusters every 27 months or so Dec 2010 to Mar 2013 to Jun 2015 to Sep 2017 however going back further you get off this cold track (e.g. June 2006).

Months below the 1971-2000 average Mar 2018: 4.9 (-1.4)Feb 2018: 2.9 (-1.3)Dec 2017: 4.8 (-0.3)Nov 2017: 6.8 (-0.1)Sep 2017: 13.5 (-0.2)Aug 2017: 15.6 (-0.4) What causes clustering? Sep 2015: 12.6 (-1.0)Aug 2015: 15.9 (-0.3)Jul 2015: 15.9 (-0.6)Jun 2015: 14.0 (-0.1)May 2015: 10.8 (-0.5)

My washing is currently on the pulley - an essential piece of equipment for Scottish weather.